Week 6 props discussion

2daBank

Voice of Reason
I should have started this a few days ago, don’t worry I fucked myself on a few numbers also getting wrapped up in mlb playoffs!! I’m way behind but I have started getting work in, I knew 3 days ago I was gonna play these 1st couple but screwed around and a few been bet up on me.

How can we not start w the lsu/mizzou game?! I have made a killing betting the wrs on both these teams for weeks (the entire year in one case!). I already wrote bout this game a bunch in the sec thread so feel free to look there for some thoughts. Unfortunately it looks like the books have finally caught up to me with some these guys!

I been smashing Luther burden yardage at like 70-80 every week and every week he goes for 100+!! He is one the most talented receivers I’m not sure gets the attention he should!! He def the most talented one I ever seen playing for mizzou! Guess they got sick of paying out on him every week as his number is freaking 107.5 now! I think I saw him 103 maybe earlier in week, I wasn’t gonna bet him there but obviously ppl are! Here the thing, could he go over this? Sure, he has went over it a bunch, lsu secondary hasn’t proven they can stop a nose bleed, and even before tigers offense became this air show I was begging for burden was going over 100., the problem is there really no value in this number, you have to trust lsu doesn’t practice all week to take him away, that he continues getting the targets, and pretty much everything goes right game script wise for him to cash. Again he could very well hit but how can I bet ov 107.5 when I been playing him over 70-80 vs worse teams than even this lsu d!!!

It’s not much better on the other side. I had already kinda got away from playing my guy Nabers cause his numbers been pretty high, he has continued to cash but I’ve found that i like Brain Thomas just as much, think he might actually be a better pro prospect than Nabers cause he so big and fast, Nabers is def a nfl wr, he gonna be very good in the slot, but Brian Thomas reminds me of freaking Randy moss!! I’m not saying he close to being moss yet but I can see it and I’ve watched him get better and better the last 2 seasons. I don’t think he quite as fast as moss but he looks the part with his 6’5 frame, ability to fly right by dudes, and high point the ball way up in the air where no corner can reach! Anyways, I been playing his totals in the 40s-50s-60s, he is now up to 82.5 against what I think a better d but he has went 120+ in 3 games this year. I’m not sure anyone can take this kid away, I could see mizzou bracketing Nabers and making sure they know where he lining up, I’m not sure they can do much bout this kid running straight down the field? He also very good after the catch. I might still be willing to play Thomas,

The play I did make already was Theo Wease ov 52.5, it
sucks he was 47.5 when I brought him up in the SEC thread but being a procrastinator I am, baseball playoffs, and kinda thinking ppl wouldn’t be as interested in him I lost 5-6 yards. I don’t think it will matter tho, talk about a guy not getting any attention! Everyone knows what a beast Burden is now, not sure anyone realizes this kid who transferred from the Sooners is no slouch himself!!! He hasn’t been as consistently putting up numbers but remember mizzou didn’t open up their offense till the k-st game, so there really a 3 game sample really, he went 6 for 72 vs k-st, he did do much against memphis but he was still able to catch a td so he making plays and there were other circumstances in the memphis game I won’t waste time talking bout but I believe were the reason he was less involved, then last week he had 10 grabs for 118! He not the big play monster of Burden or the speed demon mizzou has named marquis Johnson that can hit his head on the goalpost from anywhere on a bomb! All he does/is becoming is a very reliable target for Cook who can move the chains, I think teams be insane if they don’t start paying extra attention to burden! I think that is gonna make Wease start to live a charmed life where he getting open and catching a lot of balls!! If lsu isn’t totally focused on Burden I dunno what to say, I’d think they have to be, going forward these sec teams 1st, 2nd, and 3rd priority wjen they face mizzou should be taking burden away! Whether they can I have no clue, what I do know is cook seems to be gaining trust in Wease and if teams are doubling/bracketing, focusing a lot of attention to Burden (and how can they not?) Wease will be having a lot of bright days in the near future! I’m not saying he be putting up the monster numbers with the highlight plays but he will be grabbing 6-7-8 balls a game at somewhere between 10-13 ypc. I’m not sure he the guy I want to play alternate numbers with, I doubt he cashes in the 1st qrtr the way thomas, burden, Nabers can do, but he will just consistently help mizzou offense move the ball and will rack up 10-13 yards every catch.

Another play in this game I missed the best number:

Cook ov 272.5 pass yards (ov 1.5 td passes is a fine parlay partner but -185 more than I wanna lay straight).., this was 264.5 wjen I talked bout few days ago, I hope it doesn’t burn me but I still had to play. This kid is pretty damn good! I didn’t even realize it cause mizzou offense was nothing like what they finally started doing the last 3 weeks! This kid is completing passes at a insane clip, doesn’t throw int’s (11straight games without a pick going back to last year!), and he not doing it by dining and dunking, he is pushing the ball down the field! He averaging 10.4 per attempt! Over 13 per completion! He doing this completing almost 75% his passes! I honestly can’t believe lsu defense is gonna continue being this horrible, it shocking to me, but even if they do get better we talking bout a kid that has went for 340+ the last 3 games, who has way more talented weapons than arguably either lsu last 2 opponents, I can’t see them keeping him under 280, especially cause lsu offense is so good it not like mizzou gonna be able to take their foot off the gas.

Wow, that was a lot. My thumb hurts! Hope someone gets something out of that!! Lol
 
Do you ever see FCS player props? Wonder what the Idaho QB would be this week? I've never looked at my books to see if FCS players are an option.
 
Do you ever see FCS player props? Wonder what the Idaho QB would be this week? I've never looked at my books to see if FCS players are an option.

I seriously doubt they have them bro, they all over the place on lot the fbs games, sometimes they will only have one the qbs, or just a single rb, nothing for one team several for other. They pretty much never post them for teams like wku, I remember one game last year they did and we lit them up with all kinds of guys! Lol. I’ve never looked but I’d be shocked seeing how hit and miss they can be with even power 5 games at times.

I’ve never investigated any these new kinda sites popping up that are solely props. Maybe those would have more options?
 
Steele (ucla) ov 72.5 rush

This one actually came down while I was wasting time this week, it doesn’t really scare me any more than the concerns I already had. This one I think just comes down to game script and how much you believe in ucla ability to slow down the wazzu passing attack? Last year a unstoppable looking udub passing game came to ucla and bruins d had a great plan that cause Penix problems, obviously udub still ended up w yards and points but ucla controlled the game, DTR threw for plenty of yards but a big part that game was Zach Charbennet going 22 for 125 on the ground. This 1st real road test for wazzu, bruins coming off a very tough loss and a bye, I think they come up w a plan that prevents wazzu from getting that offense to be steamrolling downhill with one completion after another, and I think when ucla gets the ball they are gonna break out the hammer and try to run this ball as much as possible to keep Ward sitting on the sideline. This kid ran for a whole bunch of yards in the mac last year, I’m sure it was a huge adjustment coming to play in this offense, I think this the week we see why chip brought him here!!
 
Obv I can't get props but the first thing that stuck out to me this week was Mizzou passing game should have some fun

I’m in shock how terrible lsu pass defense has been! There no way it a lack of talent right? They get all kinds of talent!! I kinda expect they been embarrassed to the point it maybe improves? That why I like Wease, I can’t imagine any world where they not looking at film saying “we have to stop burden”, as bad they been I can only assume If they do manage to somewhat cover one guy the others are gonna be open! Cook hasn’t had any problem spreading the love, he gonna hit the open guy! As long as mizzou/Drinkwitz doesn’t wake up one morning this week and decide to go back to playing the crappy kind of offense they used to call I don’t see how mizzou doesn’t have success?? I can’t imagine mizzou will be able to stop danieks and company so I assume they will have to hunt points all day if they want to win!
 
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I’m in shock how terrible lsu pass defense has been! There no way it a lack of talent right? They get all kinds of talent!! I kinda expect they been embarrassed to the point it maybe improves? That why I like Wease, I can’t imagine any world where they not looking at film saying “we have to stop burden”, as bad they been I can only assume If they do manage to somewhat cover one guy the others are gonna be open! Cook hasn’t had any problem spreading the love, he gonna hit the open guy! As long as mizzou/Drinkwitz doesn’t wake up one morning this week and decide to go back to playing the crappy kind of offense they used to call I don’t see how mizzou doesn’t have success?? I can’t imagine mizzou will be able to stop danieks and company so I assume they will have to hunt points all day if they want to win!
If I was collecting wagers I'd have the game as pick em

LSU defense has no business laying 4 points on the road against a capable offense. Pretty much in the same boat as USC in my book.
 
Obv I can't get props but the first thing that stuck out to me this week was Mizzou passing game should have some fun

Since you can’t play props you playing a side in this game? I really don’t understand why lsu favs? They have done nothing to earn that ranking! And you know how high I was on lsu coming into the year!!! I saw line was all way down to -4 early today, now I see -5, I actually think the wrong team favored! Can’t believe I just said that, I was as low on mizzou as I was high on lsu a month ago! Lol. How can lsu possibly be up for this? They a playoff or bust school and they just busted last week! Now they gotta play the sleepy early game in Columbia! Another mizzou sellout! Kinda reminds me of them having to play that 11am game at ark after beating bama last year cept the total opposite emotional state but leading to possibly same flat performance? There even a cold front coming thru today, it ain’t gonna be cold 2marro but the air will be cooler and crisp, not what lsu used to!
 
If I was collecting wagers I'd have the game as pick em

LSU defense has no business laying 4 points on the road against a capable offense. Pretty much in the same boat as USC in my book.

Lol, I was just saying same thing as you were posting this. Line makes no sense, name only. Lsu has done nothing.
 
Since you can’t play props you playing a side in this game? I really don’t understand why lsu favs? They have done nothing to earn that ranking! And you know how high I was on lsu coming into the year!!! I saw line was all way down to -4 early today, now I see -5, I actually think the wrong team favored! Can’t believe I just said that, I was as low on mizzou as I was high on lsu a month ago! Lol. How can lsu possibly be up for this? They a playoff or bust school and they just busted last week! Now they gotta play the sleepy early game in Columbia! Another mizzou sellout! Kinda reminds me of them having to play that 11am game at ark after beating bama last year cept the total opposite emotional state but leading to possibly same flat performance? There even a cold front coming thru today, it ain’t gonna be cold 2marro but the air will be cooler and crisp, not what lsu used to!
I will be on Mizzou, not really interested in betting it yet. Move to 6 then I'll pounce
 
I will be on Mizzou, not really interested in betting it yet. Move to 6 then I'll pounce
It started at 6 didn’t it? I was under the assumption it was 6 till this morning when I was betting props I saw 4, now 5 again? It looks like line kinda drawn around 4.5. Lsu took money at -4 it looks like. Mizzou was hammered when it was 6 or even 7 at beginning? What a crazy open. Is mizzou gonna be a popular dog?
 
It started at 6 didn’t it? I was under the assumption it was 6 till this morning when I was betting props I saw 4, now 5 again? It looks like line kinda drawn around 4.5. Lsu took money at -4 it looks like. Mizzou was hammered when it was 6 or even 7 at beginning? What a crazy open. Is mizzou gonna be a popular dog?
I won't bet it under 6. Will hope for a live line at that point
 
Trey Henderson (osu) ov 78.5 rush

Both these running back props feel little more like guesses than I prefer but like I said these duckers have started to figure out a bunch the guys I been consistently playing, I gotta find some new paths to success!! Here the thing, Ohio st defense is very real, wken they hired this dc I expected it, think I was little foolish thinking it happen right away his 1st year, things take time!! Lol. I thought this line seemed crazy high when I saw it, it seems like most expect Terps can stay within this number, all I really know about Terps is they have a pretty good passing game, their defensive numbers are great but cmon, they have played terrible offenses! This just seems to me like a great week for osu run game to take control and set the tone! Case and point last year osu had as many rush attempts vs the Terps as they had vs any other team! (I think they had 1 more against some non power 5 early in year). With the bye I gotta think buckeyes stressed they need to run the ball better, I think they would be doing the d a solid if they ran the ball here, just stick with it and let the big boys push some ppl around, come the 4th qrtr Henderson should be popping a big one or 2 to put this thing away.
 
I should have started this a few days ago, don’t worry I fucked myself on a few numbers also getting wrapped up in mlb playoffs!! I’m way behind but I have started getting work in, I knew 3 days ago I was gonna play these 1st couple but screwed around and a few been bet up on me.

How can we not start w the lsu/mizzou game?! I have made a killing betting the wrs on both these teams for weeks (the entire year in one case!). I already wrote bout this game a bunch in the sec thread so feel free to look there for some thoughts. Unfortunately it looks like the books have finally caught up to me with some these guys!

I been smashing Luther burden yardage at like 70-80 every week and every week he goes for 100+!! He is one the most talented receivers I’m not sure gets the attention he should!! He def the most talented one I ever seen playing for mizzou! Guess they got sick of paying out on him every week as his number is freaking 107.5 now! I think I saw him 103 maybe earlier in week, I wasn’t gonna bet him there but obviously ppl are! Here the thing, could he go over this? Sure, he has went over it a bunch, lsu secondary hasn’t proven they can stop a nose bleed, and even before tigers offense became this air show I was begging for burden was going over 100., the problem is there really no value in this number, you have to trust lsu doesn’t practice all week to take him away, that he continues getting the targets, and pretty much everything goes right game script wise for him to cash. Again he could very well hit but how can I bet ov 107.5 when I been playing him over 70-80 vs worse teams than even this lsu d!!!

It’s not much better on the other side. I had already kinda got away from playing my guy Nabers cause his numbers been pretty high, he has continued to cash but I’ve found that i like Brain Thomas just as much, think he might actually be a better pro prospect than Nabers cause he so big and fast, Nabers is def a nfl wr, he gonna be very good in the slot, but Brian Thomas reminds me of freaking Randy moss!! I’m not saying he close to being moss yet but I can see it and I’ve watched him get better and better the last 2 seasons. I don’t think he quite as fast as moss but he looks the part with his 6’5 frame, ability to fly right by dudes, and high point the ball way up in the air where no corner can reach! Anyways, I been playing his totals in the 40s-50s-60s, he is now up to 82.5 against what I think a better d but he has went 120+ in 3 games this year. I’m not sure anyone can take this kid away, I could see mizzou bracketing Nabers and making sure they know where he lining up, I’m not sure they can do much bout this kid running straight down the field? He also very good after the catch. I might still be willing to play Thomas,

The play I did make already was Theo Wease ov 52.5, it sucks he was 47.5 when I brought him up in the SEC thread but being a procrastinator I am, baseball playoffs, and kinda thinking ppl wouldn’t be as interested in him I lost 5-6 yards. I don’t think it will matter tho, talk about a guy not getting any attention! Everyone knows what a beast Burden is now, not sure anyone realizes this kid who transferred from the Sooners is no slouch himself!!! He hasn’t been as consistently putting up numbers but remember mizzou didn’t open up their offense till the k-st game, so there really a 3 game sample really, he went 6 for 72 vs k-st, he did do much against memphis but he was still able to catch a td so he making plays and there were other circumstances in the memphis game I won’t waste time talking bout but I believe were the reason he was less involved, then last week he had 10 grabs for 118! He not the big play monster of Burden or the speed demon mizzou has named marquis Johnson that can hit his head on the goalpost from anywhere on a bomb! All he does/is becoming is a very reliable target for Cook who can move the chains, I think teams be insane if they don’t start paying extra attention to burden! I think that is gonna make Wease start to live a charmed life where he getting open and catching a lot of balls!! If lsu isn’t totally focused on Burden I dunno what to say, I’d think they have to be, going forward these sec teams 1st, 2nd, and 3rd priority wjen they face mizzou should be taking burden away! Whether they can I have no clue, what I do know is cook seems to be gaining trust in Wease and if teams are doubling/bracketing, focusing a lot of attention to Burden (and how can they not?) Wease will be having a lot of bright days in the near future! I’m not saying he be putting up the monster numbers with the highlight plays but he will be grabbing 6-7-8 balls a game at somewhere between 10-13 ypc. I’m not sure he the guy I want to play alternate numbers with, I doubt he cashes in the 1st qrtr the way thomas, burden, Nabers can do, but he will just consistently help mizzou offense move the ball and will rack up 10-13 yards every catch.

Another play in this game I missed the best number:

Cook ov 272.5 pass yards (ov 1.5 td passes is a fine parlay partner but -185 more than I wanna lay straight).., this was 264.5 wjen I talked bout few days ago, I hope it doesn’t burn me but I still had to play. This kid is pretty damn good! I didn’t even realize it cause mizzou offense was nothing like what they finally started doing the last 3 weeks! This kid is completing passes at a insane clip, doesn’t throw int’s (11straight games without a pick going back to last year!), and he not doing it by dining and dunking, he is pushing the ball down the field! He averaging 10.4 per attempt! Over 13 per completion! He doing this completing almost 75% his passes! I honestly can’t believe lsu defense is gonna continue being this horrible, it shocking to me, but even if they do get better we talking bout a kid that has went for 340+ the last 3 games, who has way more talented weapons than arguably either lsu last 2 opponents, I can’t see them keeping him under 280, especially cause lsu offense is so good it not like mizzou gonna be able to take their foot off the gas.

Wow, that was a lot. My thumb hurts! Hope someone gets something out of that!! Lol
i hit some of the alts on cook yards, definitely has the ceiling for it
 
Trey Henderson (osu) ov 78.5 rush

Both these running back props feel little more like guesses than I prefer but like I said these duckers have started to figure out a bunch the guys I been consistently playing, I gotta find some new paths to success!! Here the thing, Ohio st defense is very real, wken they hired this dc I expected it, think I was little foolish thinking it happen right away his 1st year, things take time!! Lol. I thought this line seemed crazy high when I saw it, it seems like most expect Terps can stay within this number, all I really know about Terps is they have a pretty good passing game, their defensive numbers are great but cmon, they have played terrible offenses! This just seems to me like a great week for osu run game to take control and set the tone! Case and point last year osu had as many rush attempts vs the Terps as they had vs any other team! (I think they had 1 more against some non power 5 early in year). With the bye I gotta think buckeyes stressed they need to run the ball better, I think they would be doing the d a solid if they ran the ball here, just stick with it and let the big boys push some ppl around, come the 4th qrtr Henderson should be popping a big one or 2 to put this thing away.
you like the hemby under? it's tight at that number, i was hoping for 50ish but im still debating it
 
you like the hemby under? it's tight at that number, i was hoping for 50ish but im still debating it

I dunno if it just variance and fact I don’t play many unders but I feel like I am terrible w under props!! In theory yea, I don’t expect he be able to run on them and not sure how long Terps can even try before game script dictates throwing constantly? But man, 42.5? What if osu is so focused on the pass game on sone 3rd and long they run a draw and he snaps off 20+ run? I just hate unders, lol. I certainly wouldn’t play his over but I rather just find a different game with a over I like! Lol. So funny cause I’m almost the complete opposite w totals!
 
i played Grant over 66.5 tonight. I can't line shop since it's an IL game so maybe better numbers out there. Illini run defense has graded out very poorly and would expect game script to be neutral. As long as he gets 14+ carries i think this should hit
 
i played Grant over 66.5 tonight. I can't line shop since it's an IL game so maybe better numbers out there. Illini run defense has graded out very poorly and would expect game script to be neutral. As long as he gets 14+ carries i think this should hit

I didn’t even look cause the fact can’t play props on Illinios schools. Glad we can now play sides I guess, few times a year I bet against them, lol. It funny can’t play side on the app but can in the casino! I swear if there life on other planets it’s no wonder they have no desire to talk to us! We so stupid!
 
I didn’t even look cause the fact can’t play props on Illinios schools. Glad we can now play sides I guess, few times a year I bet against them, lol. It funny can’t play side on the app but can in the casino! I swear if there life on other planets it’s no wonder they have no desire to talk to us! We so stupid!
so dumb! one of the few reasons i still use offshore here and there is for the IL games
 
so dumb! one of the few reasons i still use offshore here and there is for the IL games

Did you know we can now bet sides and totals? Only inside the casino tho! I was so pissed off one day, cause it now shows the lines on the app so I assumed I could bet them, get over there and nope I gotta go inside but I didn’t really have much cash on me, there was no way I wasn’t betting Kansas so I had to pay those pricks $10 or whatever it is atm fee!! At least ku smashed them, I’d been super pissed if I lost that bet!!
 
I should have started this a few days ago, don’t worry I fucked myself on a few numbers also getting wrapped up in mlb playoffs!! I’m way behind but I have started getting work in, I knew 3 days ago I was gonna play these 1st couple but screwed around and a few been bet up on me.

How can we not start w the lsu/mizzou game?! I have made a killing betting the wrs on both these teams for weeks (the entire year in one case!). I already wrote bout this game a bunch in the sec thread so feel free to look there for some thoughts. Unfortunately it looks like the books have finally caught up to me with some these guys!

I been smashing Luther burden yardage at like 70-80 every week and every week he goes for 100+!! He is one the most talented receivers I’m not sure gets the attention he should!! He def the most talented one I ever seen playing for mizzou! Guess they got sick of paying out on him every week as his number is freaking 107.5 now! I think I saw him 103 maybe earlier in week, I wasn’t gonna bet him there but obviously ppl are! Here the thing, could he go over this? Sure, he has went over it a bunch, lsu secondary hasn’t proven they can stop a nose bleed, and even before tigers offense became this air show I was begging for burden was going over 100., the problem is there really no value in this number, you have to trust lsu doesn’t practice all week to take him away, that he continues getting the targets, and pretty much everything goes right game script wise for him to cash. Again he could very well hit but how can I bet ov 107.5 when I been playing him over 70-80 vs worse teams than even this lsu d!!!

It’s not much better on the other side. I had already kinda got away from playing my guy Nabers cause his numbers been pretty high, he has continued to cash but I’ve found that i like Brain Thomas just as much, think he might actually be a better pro prospect than Nabers cause he so big and fast, Nabers is def a nfl wr, he gonna be very good in the slot, but Brian Thomas reminds me of freaking Randy moss!! I’m not saying he close to being moss yet but I can see it and I’ve watched him get better and better the last 2 seasons. I don’t think he quite as fast as moss but he looks the part with his 6’5 frame, ability to fly right by dudes, and high point the ball way up in the air where no corner can reach! Anyways, I been playing his totals in the 40s-50s-60s, he is now up to 82.5 against what I think a better d but he has went 120+ in 3 games this year. I’m not sure anyone can take this kid away, I could see mizzou bracketing Nabers and making sure they know where he lining up, I’m not sure they can do much bout this kid running straight down the field? He also very good after the catch. I might still be willing to play Thomas,

The play I did make already was Theo Wease ov 52.5, it sucks he was 47.5 when I brought him up in the SEC thread but being a procrastinator I am, baseball playoffs, and kinda thinking ppl wouldn’t be as interested in him I lost 5-6 yards. I don’t think it will matter tho, talk about a guy not getting any attention! Everyone knows what a beast Burden is now, not sure anyone realizes this kid who transferred from the Sooners is no slouch himself!!! He hasn’t been as consistently putting up numbers but remember mizzou didn’t open up their offense till the k-st game, so there really a 3 game sample really, he went 6 for 72 vs k-st, he did do much against memphis but he was still able to catch a td so he making plays and there were other circumstances in the memphis game I won’t waste time talking bout but I believe were the reason he was less involved, then last week he had 10 grabs for 118! He not the big play monster of Burden or the speed demon mizzou has named marquis Johnson that can hit his head on the goalpost from anywhere on a bomb! All he does/is becoming is a very reliable target for Cook who can move the chains, I think teams be insane if they don’t start paying extra attention to burden! I think that is gonna make Wease start to live a charmed life where he getting open and catching a lot of balls!! If lsu isn’t totally focused on Burden I dunno what to say, I’d think they have to be, going forward these sec teams 1st, 2nd, and 3rd priority wjen they face mizzou should be taking burden away! Whether they can I have no clue, what I do know is cook seems to be gaining trust in Wease and if teams are doubling/bracketing, focusing a lot of attention to Burden (and how can they not?) Wease will be having a lot of bright days in the near future! I’m not saying he be putting up the monster numbers with the highlight plays but he will be grabbing 6-7-8 balls a game at somewhere between 10-13 ypc. I’m not sure he the guy I want to play alternate numbers with, I doubt he cashes in the 1st qrtr the way thomas, burden, Nabers can do, but he will just consistently help mizzou offense move the ball and will rack up 10-13 yards every catch.

Another play in this game I missed the best number:

Cook ov 272.5 pass yards (ov 1.5 td passes is a fine parlay partner but -185 more than I wanna lay straight).., this was 264.5 wjen I talked bout few days ago, I hope it doesn’t burn me but I still had to play. This kid is pretty damn good! I didn’t even realize it cause mizzou offense was nothing like what they finally started doing the last 3 weeks! This kid is completing passes at a insane clip, doesn’t throw int’s (11straight games without a pick going back to last year!), and he not doing it by dining and dunking, he is pushing the ball down the field! He averaging 10.4 per attempt! Over 13 per completion! He doing this completing almost 75% his passes! I honestly can’t believe lsu defense is gonna continue being this horrible, it shocking to me, but even if they do get better we talking bout a kid that has went for 340+ the last 3 games, who has way more talented weapons than arguably either lsu last 2 opponents, I can’t see them keeping him under 280, especially cause lsu offense is so good it not like mizzou gonna be able to take their foot off the gas.

Wow, that was a lot. My thumb hurts! Hope someone gets something out of that!! Lol
I played Cook but after glancing through all of the player props, I did not see much that stood out.
 
Trey Henderson (osu) ov 78.5 rush

Both these running back props feel little more like guesses than I prefer but like I said these duckers have started to figure out a bunch the guys I been consistently playing, I gotta find some new paths to success!! Here the thing, Ohio st defense is very real, wken they hired this dc I expected it, think I was little foolish thinking it happen right away his 1st year, things take time!! Lol. I thought this line seemed crazy high when I saw it, it seems like most expect Terps can stay within this number, all I really know about Terps is they have a pretty good passing game, their defensive numbers are great but cmon, they have played terrible offenses! This just seems to me like a great week for osu run game to take control and set the tone! Case and point last year osu had as many rush attempts vs the Terps as they had vs any other team! (I think they had 1 more against some non power 5 early in year). With the bye I gotta think buckeyes stressed they need to run the ball better, I think they would be doing the d a solid if they ran the ball here, just stick with it and let the big boys push some ppl around, come the 4th qrtr Henderson should be popping a big one or 2 to put this thing away.
80.5 universal now it seems.

Solid bet the more I look at it.

Playing this was with your Theo bet at 53.5 -108

Thanks for the thread weekly, helps in more ways than just props.
 
80.5 universal now it seems.

Solid bet the more I look at it.

Playing this was with your Theo bet at 53.5 -108

Thanks for the thread weekly, helps in more ways than just props.

I hope I don’t end up kicking myself for Wease instead of playing the big boys, I just can’t stomach playing those guys I been slamming for 3-4 weeks now their numbers 20-30 yards higher and everyone talking bout this game and the shootout it should be, I was so happy quitelly cashing burden and Thomas every week!! Lol. It def lovely football weather but it chilly for lsu cats! I just have a weird feeling here and don’t wanna give back wkat I been taking from them!!

I honestly think Henderson could double his total if the game plays anything like I hope! I’m glad you get something from all my ramblings!! I stole that word from what you called yours in big10 thread thst I def enjoy as well!! Gl today!!
 
Gabriel ov 266,5 passing

I’m scared to get real involved with this game but of course we want action on it. To me this feels like the safest play of them all. I’m pretty confident Gabriel will move the ball between the 20s at will (at times) but I’m not confident Sooners will cash in tds.
 
I have 1-2 more at 2:30 and several tomight but I’m leaving casino now, I’ll post some bout them when I get back home.
 
I was gonna do a td prop parlay with some backs and qbs but these assholes took down the td props for Ohio st! Lol. Of course I was starting it with Henderson!
 
now I gotta go back to casino to get my straight bet on him refunded. I had just got done using him as a jumping of point for 2-3-4 team parlays and the min im pulling back in my driveway I hear on radio he out. So freaking annoying!
 
I should have started this a few days ago, don’t worry I fucked myself on a few numbers also getting wrapped up in mlb playoffs!! I’m way behind but I have started getting work in, I knew 3 days ago I was gonna play these 1st couple but screwed around and a few been bet up on me.

How can we not start w the lsu/mizzou game?! I have made a killing betting the wrs on both these teams for weeks (the entire year in one case!). I already wrote bout this game a bunch in the sec thread so feel free to look there for some thoughts. Unfortunately it looks like the books have finally caught up to me with some these guys!

I been smashing Luther burden yardage at like 70-80 every week and every week he goes for 100+!! He is one the most talented receivers I’m not sure gets the attention he should!! He def the most talented one I ever seen playing for mizzou! Guess they got sick of paying out on him every week as his number is freaking 107.5 now! I think I saw him 103 maybe earlier in week, I wasn’t gonna bet him there but obviously ppl are! Here the thing, could he go over this? Sure, he has went over it a bunch, lsu secondary hasn’t proven they can stop a nose bleed, and even before tigers offense became this air show I was begging for burden was going over 100., the problem is there really no value in this number, you have to trust lsu doesn’t practice all week to take him away, that he continues getting the targets, and pretty much everything goes right game script wise for him to cash. Again he could very well hit but how can I bet ov 107.5 when I been playing him over 70-80 vs worse teams than even this lsu d!!!

It’s not much better on the other side. I had already kinda got away from playing my guy Nabers cause his numbers been pretty high, he has continued to cash but I’ve found that i like Brain Thomas just as much, think he might actually be a better pro prospect than Nabers cause he so big and fast, Nabers is def a nfl wr, he gonna be very good in the slot, but Brian Thomas reminds me of freaking Randy moss!! I’m not saying he close to being moss yet but I can see it and I’ve watched him get better and better the last 2 seasons. I don’t think he quite as fast as moss but he looks the part with his 6’5 frame, ability to fly right by dudes, and high point the ball way up in the air where no corner can reach! Anyways, I been playing his totals in the 40s-50s-60s, he is now up to 82.5 against what I think a better d but he has went 120+ in 3 games this year. I’m not sure anyone can take this kid away, I could see mizzou bracketing Nabers and making sure they know where he lining up, I’m not sure they can do much bout this kid running straight down the field? He also very good after the catch. I might still be willing to play Thomas,

The play I did make already was Theo Wease ov 52.5, it sucks he was 47.5 when I brought him up in the SEC thread but being a procrastinator I am, baseball playoffs, and kinda thinking ppl wouldn’t be as interested in him I lost 5-6 yards. I don’t think it will matter tho, talk about a guy not getting any attention! Everyone knows what a beast Burden is now, not sure anyone realizes this kid who transferred from the Sooners is no slouch himself!!! He hasn’t been as consistently putting up numbers but remember mizzou didn’t open up their offense till the k-st game, so there really a 3 game sample really, he went 6 for 72 vs k-st, he did do much against memphis but he was still able to catch a td so he making plays and there were other circumstances in the memphis game I won’t waste time talking bout but I believe were the reason he was less involved, then last week he had 10 grabs for 118! He not the big play monster of Burden or the speed demon mizzou has named marquis Johnson that can hit his head on the goalpost from anywhere on a bomb! All he does/is becoming is a very reliable target for Cook who can move the chains, I think teams be insane if they don’t start paying extra attention to burden! I think that is gonna make Wease start to live a charmed life where he getting open and catching a lot of balls!! If lsu isn’t totally focused on Burden I dunno what to say, I’d think they have to be, going forward these sec teams 1st, 2nd, and 3rd priority wjen they face mizzou should be taking burden away! Whether they can I have no clue, what I do know is cook seems to be gaining trust in Wease and if teams are doubling/bracketing, focusing a lot of attention to Burden (and how can they not?) Wease will be having a lot of bright days in the near future! I’m not saying he be putting up the monster numbers with the highlight plays but he will be grabbing 6-7-8 balls a game at somewhere between 10-13 ypc. I’m not sure he the guy I want to play alternate numbers with, I doubt he cashes in the 1st qrtr the way thomas, burden, Nabers can do, but he will just consistently help mizzou offense move the ball and will rack up 10-13 yards every catch.

Another play in this game I missed the best number:

Cook ov 272.5 pass yards (ov 1.5 td passes is a fine parlay partner but -185 more than I wanna lay straight).., this was 264.5 wjen I talked bout few days ago, I hope it doesn’t burn me but I still had to play. This kid is pretty damn good! I didn’t even realize it cause mizzou offense was nothing like what they finally started doing the last 3 weeks! This kid is completing passes at a insane clip, doesn’t throw int’s (11straight games without a pick going back to last year!), and he not doing it by dining and dunking, he is pushing the ball down the field! He averaging 10.4 per attempt! Over 13 per completion! He doing this completing almost 75% his passes! I honestly can’t believe lsu defense is gonna continue being this horrible, it shocking to me, but even if they do get better we talking bout a kid that has went for 340+ the last 3 games, who has way more talented weapons than arguably either lsu last 2 opponents, I can’t see them keeping him under 280, especially cause lsu offense is so good it not like mizzou gonna be able to take their foot off the gas.

Wow, that was a lot. My thumb hurts! Hope someone gets something out of that!! Lol
Perfecto!!!!!!

Thanks for the winners……
 
Perfecto!!!!!!

Thanks for the winners……

I make it rain on these ho’s!! Lol.

Steele rush yards already cashed!!

I played a few fsu guys but didn’t have time to post., I have few more for the night games, I’ll try to have up soon.
 
@B.A.R. Edwards is big blue primary pass catching back correct? Is he generally the one in the game in passing situations? Seems like backs can get yards on gophers on dump offs, Edwards number only 15.5 ?
 
Thanks for posting the plays!!!!!

My pleasure bro. Sorry I didn’t have time to talk about them, I really don’t like just throwing plays out with trying to explain my thought process but I get so busy on Saturdays between running back and 4th across river and trying to still tend to wife who still not doing so well,,
 
I have a feeling that safety might fuck my Aggies team total under 22.5,, maybe not but now it not the end the world to bama if they score. Then again I’d think they would take fg now which be just fine!!
 
My pleasure bro. Sorry I didn’t have time to talk about them, I really don’t like just throwing plays out with trying to explain my thought process but I get so busy on Saturdays between running back and 4th across river and trying to still tend to wife who still not doing so well,,
Stay strong brother……prayers to your wife for full recovery!!!!!!
 
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