Week 6 props discussion/plays

2daBank

2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Going back out of town 2marro for the weekend (yep, it went that well 😁😎). So won’t be around much over the weekend, I’ll still drop back by a few times when I have the chance but making most my plays today so figure I get this up and post them.,

Rocco becht (isu) ov 224.5 pass yards. The way to attack the Bearcats is thru the air! Statistically they one the worst pass defenses in the country and they ain’t exactly faced a murders row of passing attacks!! Cincy allowing opponents to complete 75% of their passes for 9 yards a pop and 320ish a game! Sign me the hell up to fade this defense and this coach I’ve never liked. Rocco did pretty much exactly that to them last year completing around 75% for 234:, line suggest this a competitive game, I don’t think isu will have a lot of success running on the bearcats d so this just seems like a pretty easily attainable number here.

J. Price (nd) ov 70.5 rush yards.. I often prefer playing price rather than love just cause love number is usually really high and price getting close to or exceeding dd carries every week. I’m pretty confident the Irish are gonna be able to push Boise around a bit at the Los,, if the spread to be believed they gonna make easy work of Boise, I’m not sure I buy that but if it is the case then I’m incredibly confident price will get more than enough carries to hit this with his very good ypc avg that I’d expect he maintains here.,

Tommy Castellanos (fsu) ov 51.5 rush yards. This one I’m a little meh on but I can’t help myself. The obvious concern is the Miami defense has looked pretty fantastic and will no doubt be fsu offense biggest test, they also have a top 25 sack rate which always a concern with ncaa qb rushing props. That said I think this kid a gamer and lives to show up for these kinda games, I think his legs are by far his best attribute and I expect fsu normally dominant rushing attack to prob struggle a bit here and they gonna need Castellanos to do things in scramble mode. Just don’t see a world this game competitive unless his legs a factor and I do expect this to be a fairly close game.

More to come, just wanted to get these on paper.
 
Arch manning (Tex) ov 24.5 rush yards. I was really wanting to play his passing prop under as I been doing this w gator opponents but I guess the combination of them slowing down strong qbs and arch being underwhelming his number is really low so no interest there. However I think this rush number is too low, so much so I could see myself playing an alt line or 2. Think we should expect him to use his legs more when facing tougher opponents, he had 10 rushes vs osu, 9 vs utep when the offense struggled., the thing I like most here is he hasnt been taking many sacks and while the gators pass d been incredibly strong they have a really low sack rate. I think we see him way closer to 50ish rushing than 25.
 
Lacy (ville) ov 65.5 rec yards. Moss has started to click with the passing game and I expect they are gonna be able to throw all over this uva d. A case could be made for bell here but his number 15 yards higher and lacy has gotten 8 catches in both the previous 2 weeks so I like the lower number on him.
 
I’m so conflicted on my new fav rb Bo Jackson (maybe it just his name!! lol). Anyways it appears I was correct last week and he taking over as the lead back in the osu offense, the other cat still gonna get carries but I expect Bo gets 15+ chances a week for the foreseeable future. Where I’m torn is last week I played him at 49.5 then a few more times as his number inexplicably dropped, but now it seems they have it figured out and now we getting a number more in line with a less back. So we gotta pay for that and facing a gophers run d that mostly been very good but against not the best competition, Rutgers back ran all over them last week which makes me wanna play this despite the yards being jacked up about 30 from last week. Gotta figure gophers struggle to score so osu will be running the ball especially in 2nd half. Not sure the gopher run d any better than udub and even tho no big runs Bo still got to 80, he has that home run pop so if he gets loose on one this cashes easy, if he doesn’t the volume should still be there where if he can maintain 5ish yards a carry he outta cash. Think im taking myself into this as we speak, lol.
 
Texas team total un 24.5

Can’t trust the gators offense to play them, praying they don’t hand the Texas defense a bunch of short fields. Long as that doesn’t happen I really don’t think this a number arch and company gonna hit. Gators have slowed down better qb’s.

Clemson Tt un 30.5

Don’t love anything bout unc but not sure what makes anyone think Clemson offense is gonna do enough to put up 31? Klubik has regressed for whatever reason. These clowns only put up 21 vs cuse crappy d everyone’s roasting at home! I can’t imagine the heels d is any worse than cuse, maybe they figure things out during the bye but I’ll pay to see it.
 
Michigan RB Haynes Under 92.5 yds rushing. FD
Wisconsin only redeeming factor is they have been stopping the run. No team has yet gained 90 yds rushing vs Badgers let alone one running back.
 
Michigan RB Haynes Under 92.5 yds rushing. FD
Wisconsin only redeeming factor is they have been stopping the run. No team has yet gained 90 yds rushing vs Badgers let alone one running back.

Like it,
 
i played madsen o210.5 last night. Green was 250ish vs ND last weekend...granted we could definitely see another blowout here

I didn’t see him up the places I was looking but makes sense for sure. I think they probably stay within the number but wtf do I know? I got good number on green then played bad number too and of course lost both 🤣🤪
 
Michigan RB Haynes Under 92.5 yds rushing. FD
Wisconsin only redeeming factor is they have been stopping the run. No team has yet gained 90 yds rushing vs Badgers let alone one running back.
See this prop is now up to 102yds at FD. May have to hit it again.
 
Arch manning (Tex) ov 24.5 rush yards. I was really wanting to play his passing prop under as I been doing this w gator opponents but I guess the combination of them slowing down strong qbs and arch being underwhelming his number is really low so no interest there. However I think this rush number is too low, so much so I could see myself playing an alt line or 2. Think we should expect him to use his legs more when facing tougher opponents, he had 10 rushes vs osu, 9 vs utep when the offense struggled., the thing I like most here is he hasnt been taking many sacks and while the gators pass d been incredibly strong they have a really low sack rate. I think we see him way closer to 50ish rushing than 25.
Like this and played it at 24.5 and the alt line over 40 +194
 
Going back out of town 2marro for the weekend (yep, it went that well 😁😎). So won’t be around much over the weekend, I’ll still drop back by a few times when I have the chance but making most my plays today so figure I get this up and post them.,

Rocco becht (isu) ov 224.5 pass yards. The way to attack the Bearcats is thru the air! Statistically they one the worst pass defenses in the country and they ain’t exactly faced a murders row of passing attacks!! Cincy allowing opponents to complete 75% of their passes for 9 yards a pop and 320ish a game! Sign me the hell up to fade this defense and this coach I’ve never liked. Rocco did pretty much exactly that to them last year completing around 75% for 234:, line suggest this a competitive game, I don’t think isu will have a lot of success running on the bearcats d so this just seems like a pretty easily attainable number here.

J. Price (nd) ov 70.5 rush yards.. I often prefer playing price rather than love just cause love number is usually really high and price getting close to or exceeding dd carries every week. I’m pretty confident the Irish are gonna be able to push Boise around a bit at the Los,, if the spread to be believed they gonna make easy work of Boise, I’m not sure I buy that but if it is the case then I’m incredibly confident price will get more than enough carries to hit this with his very good ypc avg that I’d expect he maintains here.,

Tommy Castellanos (fsu) ov 51.5 rush yards. This one I’m a little meh on but I can’t help myself. The obvious concern is the Miami defense has looked pretty fantastic and will no doubt be fsu offense biggest test, they also have a top 25 sack rate which always a concern with ncaa qb rushing props. That said I think this kid a gamer and lives to show up for these kinda games, I think his legs are by far his best attribute and I expect fsu normally dominant rushing attack to prob struggle a bit here and they gonna need Castellanos to do things in scramble mode. Just don’t see a world this game competitive unless his legs a factor and I do expect this to be a fairly close game.

More to come, just wanted to get these on paper.
Nice work, I should have tailed these.
 
Nice work, I should have tailed these.

Don’t blame ya for not, it took a month to finally start gaining some traction! Then Castillanos number kept falling after I bet him, luckily that shit never deters me and I usually bet more when it happens. Not going back out of town til next week so havnt gotten anything done for this week but working on it now, hopefully it keeps up!!
 
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