So where are the big upsets today? I count 15 TD+ dog upsets YTD, many of those DD variety. Sadly I have not participated in these MLs, I haven't hardly tried any this year.
What about Central Arkansas they are +460 at Ark State? Central was leading North Dakota St 28-25 with 10 minutes left (lost 39-28). Normally, I might think Central Ark would be in let-down off tough road loss at ND State, what saves them this week is they play instate team (little brother vs big brother type thing). Ark St blown out last week, situationally I would rather Ark St not have lost last week (because now big brother knows they can't take anyone lightly). I really don't know much about Central Ark other than I think their D suffered some injuries last week. Doubt I play this ML simply, I can't name more than one player on Central Ark off hand, but maybe I make a smaller play on the ATS just because.
I do think Tennessee competes with Georgia today. I can envision a one score game there and the right turnover at the right time could make it happen. Definitely will be on Vols +, not sure I really want to risk the ML.
Texas State has been a nice surprise this year. Hung with SMU and out played Boston College...then they go get upset by UTSA. Texas St should be at full strength for first time this season and have some play makers on O and a couple good players on D as well. Troy usually does what Troy does, but they appear down at QB this year and I think their OL/DL are not to typical standards. Would be a pretty big upset in terms of league pecking order more than point spread perception...Troy expects to win double digit games and compete for league titles, Texas State just trying to be relevant.
Arkansas? Maybe? One thing I like is that they have some confidence, a shot in the arm from the new staff, things are working and they have some talent. One thing I don't like is they aren't really playing good ball on offense (SEC yard per play rank just one spot above Vandy). It's the defense that has us paying attention. I'm also thinking that Auburn simply isn't very good. Arguably, if they played UK again Auburn would lose and while Georgia's D will smoother most teams, it looked like Tigers didn't even have a pulse last week (UGA's O style kept the game "only" at a 3 TD margin). Not sure which way the whole Chad Morris thing will cut. Some say a former coach has unique insight into his former roster and can plan and attack weaknesses. Then others say the former players are more motivated to beat their former coach. I don't know. Out of all the double digit dogs on the board today I would not be one bit surprised if Arkansas wins this game....then I think about the combined 193 to 36. That is the combined score that Auburn has hung on Arkansas the last 4 years!
I think Middle Tennessee has a shot. For one, it looks like FIU O might be down, perhaps considerably from their former selves. If so, that certainly helps. I also think that MTSU O has put a couple of decent games together with O'Hara producing. He has been about as close to a one man show as a team can have, which might ultimately turn out to be a bad thing, the team will sink or swim as he goes. Don't like doubting Butch Davis especially since MTSU waxed them 50-17 last year! FIU D should be decent, but Liberty gashed them for 527 yards!
Miami, oh boy, nobody likes going out on the limb with The U in these games because we know what normally has happened. And doubting Clemson? You just can't do it. Here is what I think, Clemson has yet to really look great this year. Sure they controlled the game vs Wake and could've scored more, but they lacked big plays and kind of had to grind out their drives. Ok that was week 1. More big plays were to be had last week vs UVA. But then UVA kinda hung in there too...with a team that I don't think has as much talent as Miami has. The transfers on Miami is really what gives me some hope. I can't remember the last time Miami had a legit play maker at QB, and King is going to have to have a huge role both running and passing and the Canes TEs might come up big. Clearly Lawrence best QB out there, but with some OL questions and no proven production outside of Rogers at receiver, I think Miami D can have some success vs Clemson pass. From a Miami standpoint what I really fear is Clemson's run game and Etienne, I like Miami pass rush potential more than their run D vs a quality RB of Etienne's ability. Another thing, I'm not sure this Clemson D is up to the standards of the past. Picking against a dynasty with a perennial underachiever sounds like a recipe for failure, but trying to predict upsets, we are trying to predict the unexpected, trying to figure out what shouldn't happen, kind of the opposite of trying to figure out what should happen and betting on that. Betting on what shouldn't happen I think is much more fun when you get it right!
UTEP is 3-1! Hey! The ULM game they looked fantastic on O, D, 3rd down, etc. But before that, having actually watched some of their games I thought they were clearly improved, but still pretty slow and not strong in the trenches, a team that can make some plays, but not score many points. They do have some confidence and there is some solid skill at WR and RB (no depth though) with a good-enough average QB and a couple pieces on D. LaTech was way more talent. But this series is weird. 2 of the last 5 have seen the finals fall within one score. The other 3 were 21 pt LT wins. Just appears that this UTEP team is a little different and this LT team is a little different too. I'll just play some ATS on the Miners, but the way things are going, UTEP winning this one might actually not surprise.
That is where my mind is at on the potential bigger MLs this morning.
opcorn:
