Week 6 ML Dogs...

Tulane
Texas
aTm
Miss State

I'll be taking the points though.

Coastal Carolina this past week was my biggest bet since LSU/Oklahoma last year, but not sure they match up so well with ULL.

Maybe some of the southern handicappers like Twinkie can shed some light on that one
 
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I think we are all thinking Tulane has a chance. Good coach, good running game (not sure if it matters if one of their RBs is out, I'm not sure haven't looked), and Tulane's D is good enough. The X factor with them, is Keon Howard. He's hard to trust. If you can, you like Tulane. Who possibly knows what Houston might look like? They've had 3 or 4 opponents cancel on them to open their season!

So funny thing is, we all kind of like Tulane to some degree...and the line keeps moving opposite. I guess we like that too.

Will have to see where things go this week I haven't played hardly any MLs this year and won none of the plays I did do.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Tulane
Texas
aTm
Miss State

I'll be taking the points though.

Coastal Carolina this past week was my biggest bet since LSU/Oklahoma last year, but not sure they match up so well with ULL.

Maybe some of the southern handicappers like Twinkie can she some light on that one
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QB for Coastal ranks 4th in QB Efficiency at 207, UL-Laf QB ranks 37th at 133.
Coastal scoring defense ranks 25th at 22ppg allowed, UL-Laf ranks 20th at 21ppg allowed.
Fairly large gap in QB play whereas defenses seem to be similar....not sure how strength of schedule factors in there though.
 
s--k said:
I think we are all thinking Tulane has a chance. Good coach, good running game (not sure if it matters if one of their RBs is out, I'm not sure haven't looked), and Tulane's D is good enough. The X factor with them, is Keon Howard. He's hard to trust. If you can, you like Tulane. Who possibly knows what Houston might look like? They've had 3 or 4 opponents cancel on them to open their season!

So funny thing is, we all kind of like Tulane to some degree...and the line keeps moving opposite. I guess we like that too.

Will have to see where things go this week I haven't played hardly any MLs this year and won none of the plays I did do.
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Correct on Keon. Also, will Houston want a lil revenge from the awesome game last year?
 
twinkie13 said:
Correct on Keon. Also, will Houston want a lil revenge from the awesome game last year?
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I haven't yet thought about the game in any depth yet. I am surprised that the number and odds are where they currently are though.
 
JROCK1966 said:
QB for Coastal ranks 4th in QB Efficiency at 207, UL-Laf QB ranks 37th at 133.
Click to expand...
I also see C Carolina ranks in the top 10 running the ball, ULL ranks in the bottom 10 defending the run, although I'm not sure the sample size is big enough this early in the season to mean much
 
Is vaTech close to getting qb back? I don’t like them with bermiester but they get the kid back who took over last season id love their chances of knocking off Unc.
 
2daBank said:
Is vaTech close to getting qb back? I don’t like them with bermiester but they get the kid back who took over last season id love their chances of knocking off Unc.
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Think I saw he’s supposed to be back, but unsure if he’s starting.
 
Ryno14 said:
Think I saw he’s supposed to be back, but unsure if he’s starting.
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their offense is light years better when he plays qb! He does some great stuff scrambling but also a much better passer than a lot the ncaa running QBs. Think I bet them like 7 games in a row after they put him in last year, and he was just a freshman so obviously there room for him to get even better. Was he a Rona casualty? That be my only concern as some those guys take awhile to be back to 100%, and if it was Rona did he have symptoms?
 
Is Howell feeling the pressure of all the hype? They guilty of reading their press clippings? Just doesn’t look to me like unc has made the jump many were expecting this year. They did run it really well on BC and to this point the Vtech run defense has not been stout. I do expect that will improve as the season goes but maybe the dc retiring hurt them.
 
Guess it gonna be a last minute play for me cause if the qb plays I’m on Hokies. If the same kid playing again it probably a pass.
 
2nd time through....

Texas State
Kansas State
UTEP
Western Ky.
Arkansas

I haven't had a chance to look deeper for info on Central Ark.....will do so in the coming day or two.

Lastly, Miami??? Just throwing it out there....I think they have the QB to keep 'em close and they have the athletes to matchup to Clemson somewhat like what UNC did last year??

:popcorn:
 
2daBank said:
their offense is light years better when he plays qb! He does some great stuff scrambling but also a much better passer than a lot the ncaa running QBs. Think I bet them like 7 games in a row after they put him in last year, and he was just a freshman so obviously there room for him to get even better. Was he a Rona casualty? That be my only concern as some those guys take awhile to be back to 100%, and if it was Rona did he have symptoms?
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“Undisclosed” - he was supposed to return last week and then last minute change. It’s one I’ll be keeping an eye on as well. I don’t expect UNC to be able to come close to stopping VT’s rushing attack either way - but without Hooker, I can’t bet VT this week.
 
Ryno14 said:
“Undisclosed” - he was supposed to return last week and then last minute change. It’s one I’ll be keeping an eye on as well. I don’t expect UNC to be able to come close to stopping VT’s rushing attack either way - but without Hooker, I can’t bet VT this week.
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yea me neither. The other guy just isn’t good and whole I expect tech d to give unc some problems I need the qb I trust to get me 30!!!!
 
s--k said:
I think we are all thinking Tulane has a chance. Good coach, good running game (not sure if it matters if one of their RBs is out, I'm not sure haven't looked), and Tulane's D is good enough. The X factor with them, is Keon Howard. He's hard to trust. If you can, you like Tulane. Who possibly knows what Houston might look like? They've had 3 or 4 opponents cancel on them to open their season!

So funny thing is, we all kind of like Tulane to some degree...and the line keeps moving opposite. I guess we like that too.

Will have to see where things go this week I haven't played hardly any MLs this year and won none of the plays I did do.
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Pratt is now the Tulane starter from what I’ve seen, and while his numbers weren’t great he was actually the QB when their offense started rolling against Southern Miss.
 
M.W. said:
i Would say that 5-4 Iowa State beating 10-0 and third-ranked OSU in a nationally televised Friday night game in 2011 was bigger.
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And even more recently, didn’t Iowa State just beat OU on the road a couple years ago early in Campbell’s tenure?
 
M.W. said:
i Would say that 5-4 Iowa State beating 10-0 and third-ranked OSU in a nationally televised Friday night game in 2011 was bigger.
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I would also note that Iowa State Under Campbell has been very good in “letdown” spots after big wins. I’m not sure if I would lay more than -10 but I think the Cyclones take care of business as they have been really good against Tech and the 3man defensive will still get pressure.
 
2daBank said:
Is Howell feeling the pressure of all the hype? They guilty of reading their press clippings? Just doesn’t look to me like unc has made the jump many were expecting this year. They did run it really well on BC and to this point the Vtech run defense has not been stout. I do expect that will improve as the season goes but maybe the dc retiring hurt them.
Click to expand...

Gotta remember that the BC game was basically a redo of the season opener given the fact that we hadn't played in 21 days due to the Charlotte cancellation. I really think this week will be a better barometer of exactly where we stand as Va Tech is the perfect measuring stick at this point in the season.
 
Count me in on Tulane and I played this one.....

3, 4, 5, & 6-teamer RRs:

Tulane +220
Arkansas +438
Kansas State +260
Texas State +230
UTEP +445
Western Kentucky +210
Risking $42.00 (42 parlays at $1.00) To Win $13,711.92

BOLTA!
 
TahoeLegend said:
I also see C Carolina ranks in the top 10 running the ball, ULL ranks in the bottom 10 defending the run, although I'm not sure the sample size is big enough this early in the season to mean much
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I was really liking coastal but that game is postponed isn’t it?
 
Line and odds have fallen throughout the week in the VT-NC game. From +5.5/170 to +3/130 now. More than VT QB, I'd think the status of the VT DB might be of more importance? That is if the Duke game is any indication of some problems they had with the pass D. I'm almost more inclined to lean with UNC now. I was only interested in taking VT if there were some meaningful ATS points involved. What's up with Hokie D backfield this week?
 
2daBank said:
Wku is def on my list, think I like the 7 points much more than ml tho.
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WKy got their first win last week on the road and was a major confidence builder.....I like the ML a lot! Their one of the best dogs on the board for tomorrow!
 
JROCK1966 said:
WKy got their first win last week on the road and was a major confidence builder.....I like the ML a lot! Their one of the best dogs on the board for tomorrow!
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thing is their games with Marshall are always some straight up battles. I feel great getting a td or more, actually winning who knows? I mean there no arguing there value getting the plus money when I think it goes right down to the wire. I’ve just been trying to really limit losses. Not that I haven’t been playing some dog mls I just feel way happier with the points on this one.

There really no argument I could make to say playing the ml a bad idea, so guess I’m goofy for most likely sticking with the points. I suppose the fact Wku win came against garbage ass mtsu and they didn’t even cover! They played well enough to cover but they played prevent defense once they were up 2 scores late and handed the cover away (only loss I had last week!), the offense remained not very impressive but the d is playing solid.

I’m kinda surprised “we are” getting so much love, this thing opened way lower. I don’t think beating app st proves all that much this year, that a team who clearly suffering from all the coaching turnover last few years. Wku has played much toucher competition overall. I’m pretty curious if Terps transfer Pigrome duel threat ability will give Marshall some trouble? Kinda worry Wku hasn’t been able to establish any kind of run game at all outside of him scrambling. Maybe that what Wku needs against a very stout Marshall run d tho? I expect this to be incredibly low scoring (not exactly groundbreaking with that low ass total!) so just maybe him making a few plays outside the pocket will de enough!!!
 
s--k said:
Line and odds have fallen throughout the week in the VT-NC game. From +5.5/170 to +3/130 now. More than VT QB, I'd think the status of the VT DB might be of more importance? That is if the Duke game is any indication of some problems they had with the pass D. I'm almost more inclined to lean with UNC now. I was only interested in taking VT if there were some meaningful ATS points involved. What's up with Hokie D backfield this week?
Click to expand...

kinda feel same way, more it drops and more love I see for Vatech the less I like them. Pretty sure one the good corners gonna be back. The one thing I do still like about them is looks like some decent potential for rain, if conditions tough to throw in I think that a huge advantage for Hokies. Even more than hookers arm I think the threat of his running really opens up more room for Hokies run game. I could see myself passing but certainly can’t see myself doing a 180 and switching to unc.
 
carolinablue said:
Gotta remember that the BC game was basically a redo of the season opener given the fact that we hadn't played in 21 days due to the Charlotte cancellation. I really think this week will be a better barometer of exactly where we stand as Va Tech is the perfect measuring stick at this point in the season.
Click to expand...

im not convinced that run defense of ya’lls ready for the test Hokies run game can offer.
 
So where are the big upsets today? I count 15 TD+ dog upsets YTD, many of those DD variety. Sadly I have not participated in these MLs, I haven't hardly tried any this year.

What about Central Arkansas they are +460 at Ark State? Central was leading North Dakota St 28-25 with 10 minutes left (lost 39-28). Normally, I might think Central Ark would be in let-down off tough road loss at ND State, what saves them this week is they play instate team (little brother vs big brother type thing). Ark St blown out last week, situationally I would rather Ark St not have lost last week (because now big brother knows they can't take anyone lightly). I really don't know much about Central Ark other than I think their D suffered some injuries last week. Doubt I play this ML simply, I can't name more than one player on Central Ark off hand, but maybe I make a smaller play on the ATS just because.

I do think Tennessee competes with Georgia today. I can envision a one score game there and the right turnover at the right time could make it happen. Definitely will be on Vols +, not sure I really want to risk the ML.

Texas State has been a nice surprise this year. Hung with SMU and out played Boston College...then they go get upset by UTSA. Texas St should be at full strength for first time this season and have some play makers on O and a couple good players on D as well. Troy usually does what Troy does, but they appear down at QB this year and I think their OL/DL are not to typical standards. Would be a pretty big upset in terms of league pecking order more than point spread perception...Troy expects to win double digit games and compete for league titles, Texas State just trying to be relevant.

Arkansas? Maybe? One thing I like is that they have some confidence, a shot in the arm from the new staff, things are working and they have some talent. One thing I don't like is they aren't really playing good ball on offense (SEC yard per play rank just one spot above Vandy). It's the defense that has us paying attention. I'm also thinking that Auburn simply isn't very good. Arguably, if they played UK again Auburn would lose and while Georgia's D will smoother most teams, it looked like Tigers didn't even have a pulse last week (UGA's O style kept the game "only" at a 3 TD margin). Not sure which way the whole Chad Morris thing will cut. Some say a former coach has unique insight into his former roster and can plan and attack weaknesses. Then others say the former players are more motivated to beat their former coach. I don't know. Out of all the double digit dogs on the board today I would not be one bit surprised if Arkansas wins this game....then I think about the combined 193 to 36. That is the combined score that Auburn has hung on Arkansas the last 4 years!

I think Middle Tennessee has a shot. For one, it looks like FIU O might be down, perhaps considerably from their former selves. If so, that certainly helps. I also think that MTSU O has put a couple of decent games together with O'Hara producing. He has been about as close to a one man show as a team can have, which might ultimately turn out to be a bad thing, the team will sink or swim as he goes. Don't like doubting Butch Davis especially since MTSU waxed them 50-17 last year! FIU D should be decent, but Liberty gashed them for 527 yards!

Miami, oh boy, nobody likes going out on the limb with The U in these games because we know what normally has happened. And doubting Clemson? You just can't do it. Here is what I think, Clemson has yet to really look great this year. Sure they controlled the game vs Wake and could've scored more, but they lacked big plays and kind of had to grind out their drives. Ok that was week 1. More big plays were to be had last week vs UVA. But then UVA kinda hung in there too...with a team that I don't think has as much talent as Miami has. The transfers on Miami is really what gives me some hope. I can't remember the last time Miami had a legit play maker at QB, and King is going to have to have a huge role both running and passing and the Canes TEs might come up big. Clearly Lawrence best QB out there, but with some OL questions and no proven production outside of Rogers at receiver, I think Miami D can have some success vs Clemson pass. From a Miami standpoint what I really fear is Clemson's run game and Etienne, I like Miami pass rush potential more than their run D vs a quality RB of Etienne's ability. Another thing, I'm not sure this Clemson D is up to the standards of the past. Picking against a dynasty with a perennial underachiever sounds like a recipe for failure, but trying to predict upsets, we are trying to predict the unexpected, trying to figure out what shouldn't happen, kind of the opposite of trying to figure out what should happen and betting on that. Betting on what shouldn't happen I think is much more fun when you get it right!

UTEP is 3-1! Hey! The ULM game they looked fantastic on O, D, 3rd down, etc. But before that, having actually watched some of their games I thought they were clearly improved, but still pretty slow and not strong in the trenches, a team that can make some plays, but not score many points. They do have some confidence and there is some solid skill at WR and RB (no depth though) with a good-enough average QB and a couple pieces on D. LaTech was way more talent. But this series is weird. 2 of the last 5 have seen the finals fall within one score. The other 3 were 21 pt LT wins. Just appears that this UTEP team is a little different and this LT team is a little different too. I'll just play some ATS on the Miners, but the way things are going, UTEP winning this one might actually not surprise.

That is where my mind is at on the potential bigger MLs this morning.
 
Like Arky 1H. They have shown up ready to play whereas Auburn has been miserable in the first half of both of their games.
 
One thing giving me pause on Arky as s—k alluded to, Gus loves running it up on the Hogs. I think I mentioned elsewhere that this may be his worst AU team since he’s been there so it may not matter, but it’ll probably keep me off the ML and just taking the points
 
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