Week 6 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Short & Sweet to start off Week 6

Pretty decent week for small dogs that hit on the ML in Week 5.

Let’s dig into Week 6!

Who do we like this week........
 
It’s not even a dare at this point. Charlie Strong doesn’t deserve to be favored over any team in college football. Even you, Akron!

At first glance for consideration:

Baylor
TCU
Auburn
Army
Iowa
Michigan
Cal
 
Vasherized said:
It’s not even a dare at this point. Charlie Strong doesn’t deserve to be favored over any team in college football. Even you, Akron!

At first glance for consideration:

Baylor
TCU
Auburn
Army
Iowa
Michigan
Cal
Click to expand...

That's gonna require some sorcery, right there... Guessing you meant Sparty and not UM?
:hypnosis:
 
Vasherized said:
yeah I meant Sparty. Long shot but Ohio State will eventually have a game like Clemson did last weekend. Why not Saturday?
Click to expand...

Gotcha. I agree that OSU will have a game like that, and that MSU is a solid candidate to give them that (so is PSU). Don't think that Wisky has the speed defensively and think they're too far into Harbaugh's head for it to be UM.
 
First run through for me...looks like it might be a fav weekend but.....

Utah State 1st Qtr
New Mexico State
Boston College
Ball State
Michigan State maybe....
 
Frank Costanza said:
Ga Tech. I don't know North Carolina gets up off the mat after that incredible effort this past weekend.
Click to expand...
booksbestfriend said:
It was said in another thread, so cant take credit. Mack needs to sell this team on the fact they can play with anyone. If so, UNC in a route.
Click to expand...

UNC's played 5 straight one-score games, their 3 losses are by combined 9 pts with the 6 pt loss to WF being the largest.

There are positives in the Heels. What are the positives for GT? Only possible angle would be UNC drained off Clemson near miss - it might be the case, but is there any actual tangible reason to back GT football?
 
Rice is playing tough of late. Lost in OT to LaTech and pushed Baylor pretty good 2 weeks ago. UAB held under 300 yards twice this year to underwhelming opponents (Bama St and WKU).
 
Seeing Liberty as a road fav is weird. They have figured some things out. This is 3rd game in a year between these two. Last time in Las Cruces Liberty was small road fav and lost. I think that game had some weirdness but I forget exactly. Then NMSt beat them later in the year wherever it is that Liberty plays their games, Virginia somewhere?
 
Oregon State +192 at UCLA seems possible. What is DTR's status? Beavers have scored atleast 28 pts in every game this year and let one get away vs Stanford last week. Bruin's improbable comeback at Wazzou was great for them, but they couldn't follow it up vs a Zona team starting a tr Fr QB Gunnell in his first start who went 66% for 352 and 8.0 ypa. Beavers QB Luton is up and down though, when he is up, Beaver's passing game is pretty good and they can run it well. Luton has 9-0 ratio so far this year. They also convert 3rd downs at a good enough rate for 4th in the nation (56%). D is issue, as always, for Beaver backers. Aren't these teams kinda even, or even...is Oregon State better?
 
s--k said:
Seeing Liberty as a road fav is weird. They have figured some things out. This is 3rd game in a year between these two. Last time in Las Cruces Liberty was small road fav and lost. I think that game had some weirdness but I forget exactly. Then NMSt beat them later in the year wherever it is that Liberty plays their games, Virginia somewhere?
Click to expand...

Just checked last year history....

Liberty lost the first game 49-41 on the road 10-6-18
Then beat nmst 28-21 at home 11-24-18

Also, this is Hugh Freeze first year coaching Liberty.....
 
number2 said:
Just checked last year history....

Liberty lost the first game 49-41 on the road 10-6-18
Then beat nmst 28-21 at home 11-24-18

Also, this is Hugh Freeze first year coaching Liberty.....
Click to expand...

Yeah...Liberty was in back-to-back state of New Mexico trips off an upset win at Albuquerque the week prior.

I need to start trying to limit the dogs I could actually see myself risking money on rather than just trying to see any and every upset that could happen. I'm not putting ML money on NMSt. Like I said, Liberty has figured some things out and as you mention with Freeze there, I think the further they get into the season, and the healthier Freeze is with his involvement with Buckshot his improvment is evident.
 
I will only mention spreads of 4 or greater this week.

Pittsburgh - Some evidence that Pitt is pretty good ... certainly defensively. The final score of the UVA game is deceiving as Pitt was minus 2 in turnovers and the Cavs punched one in very late after Pitt was stopped on downs somewhere near their own 25. Yardage was pretty even with the Cavs having a slight edge. Then they held Ohio to 12 first downs and 212 yards, before outgaining and out-first-downing Penn State, losing there late on a failed goal to go situation where the coach didn't even give them the fourth down opportunity to win. Then the big win against UCF where they had ten more first downs and outgained the knights in a close victory. Then you see they barely beat Deleware but they had a 443-170 yard edge there. UVA, Penn State, Ohio and UCF are all bowl teams. I think it is pretty safe to say that Pitt is good on defense. Duke put together good performances against mtsu and vt but there are signs vt sucks. 5 is a lot againstbthat pitt d. Some injuries on the pitt side but if healthy enough i think you get the better team with a decent plus sign
 
What about Central Michigan?

EMU 291 vs Coastal, 386 vs Kentucky, 480 vs Illinois, and 373 vs Central Conn

EMU allowed 378 to Coastal (somehow won but I don't remember the game), 461 vs Kentucky (outgained again), 464 vs Illinois (16 yard emu edge) and 346 vs Central Conn (27 yard edge).

There isn't much there to make me think they just run Central Michigan over at Central Michigan who has the lesser record but is certainly more battle tested.

The spot is kind of bad for Central Michigan but this line indicates a DD home favorite role for EMU vs them and I don't think that is accurate.

Seems like a coin flip with a nice plus money tag on it.
 
Ball State

If not now, when?

No reason to think NIU runs away and hides from ball state so definitely a live ticket in most scenarios. NIU appears down compared to their norm
 
booksbestfriend said:
I was a student at Troy when Brad Smith’s Mizzou team marched into Troy, AL for a Thursday night game and lost outright as a big fave. Some good parties that night..
Click to expand...
We must’ve been in college the same time. I was a sophomore and bet mizzou that night.
 
s--k said:
UNC's played 5 straight one-score games, their 3 losses are by combined 9 pts with the 6 pt loss to WF being the largest.

There are positives in the Heels. What are the positives for GT? Only possible angle would be UNC drained off Clemson near miss - it might be the case, but is there any actual tangible reason to back GT football?
Click to expand...
I don't think there is... regarding GT
 
Good takes VK.

The most impressive thing I've seen from Pitt is how deep their DL was. They lost Weaver and Camp and just keep rolling. They have good reputation for DL players and they must recruit and develop very well.

I'm personally been a fan of Duke this year and that sometimes cloud my vision, however, these teams are probably pretty even.
 
I've bet against NIU the last 3 weeks including some 1st and 2nd half's. I really am not a believer in them but I am only 3-2 in those plays, so despite my disbelief NIU surpassed my expectations in 2 of the 3 games.

Ball St, surprisingly, is decent....NIU has won 10 straight in the series but the line does say this year might be different.
 
s--k said:
UNC's played 5 straight one-score games, their 3 losses are by combined 9 pts with the 6 pt loss to WF being the largest.
Click to expand...
Interesting. I checked and this is only the fifth time since 1980 a 1A/FBS team made it to game 6 with all games decided by 7 or fewer. The other four were all coming off wins in game 6, and all failed to cover.
 
Last edited:
booksbestfriend said:
Yes. Both have the capability. The later we get in the season, the more home dog MLs come into play. Just seems like we get some each weekday towards the back half of the season.
Click to expand...

Pitt laid out the blueprint on how to beat UCF...just run and play action. We all know how good Bearcats D and what the offense is capable of. I think Cincy FH could be a play here too. Crowd will be into it and Nippert will be rocking tonight.

Also, N.M hasn't won a road game since last year against my alumni (UNLV) and they look atrocious this season. Its more on a play against SJSU...I mean should they be a TD favored over anyone in the conference???
 
NM is awful. Were lucky to cover vs Liberty last week. Liberty dominated that game. SJSU off a misleading score vs AF last week. Thought this line would've moved up. It hasn't which concerns me. But that's a tough turnaround for NM. Lynchburg Va to San Jose in a week? I see SJSU by double digits.
 
s--k said:
Oregon State +192 at UCLA seems possible. What is DTR's status? Beavers have scored atleast 28 pts in every game this year and let one get away vs Stanford last week. Bruin's improbable comeback at Wazzou was great for them, but they couldn't follow it up vs a Zona team starting a tr Fr QB Gunnell in his first start who went 66% for 352 and 8.0 ypa. Beavers QB Luton is up and down though, when he is up, Beaver's passing game is pretty good and they can run it well. Luton has 9-0 ratio so far this year. They also convert 3rd downs at a good enough rate for 4th in the nation (56%). D is issue, as always, for Beaver backers. Aren't these teams kinda even, or even...is Oregon State better?
Click to expand...

I thought beavers were way better than Stanford last week just couldn’t get out their own way in 1st half. Offense looked great storming back then they botch the kickoff giving trees very short field for winning fg but i def walked away impressed w their offense. Think they def worth a shot in what should be a freaking shootout I think.
 
s--k said:
Good takes VK.

The most impressive thing I've seen from Pitt is how deep their DL was. They lost Weaver and Camp and just keep rolling. They have good reputation for DL players and they must recruit and develop very well.

I'm personally been a fan of Duke this year and that sometimes cloud my vision, however, these teams are probably pretty even.
Click to expand...

I love duke as dogs but in the fav roll not so much. Pitt front 7 i think the difference.
 
My plays/plan for the day...not very outlandish compared to some of my previous lotto tickets because I think this is going to be a fav day..during my research this past week, a lot of trends came back in favor of favs and the dog-pickin seemed slim for me. But here it is...

I’m starting with this one: 2, 3, & 4 teamer RRs with Army, BC, Ball St., and Utah State 1st Qtr. 2nd one I played same 3 plus Utah State 1st half.

#1 - $11 to win $263
#2 - $11 to win $483

If I win anything, I’ll play 3 teamer combos with New Mexico St., Georgia Tech 1st Qtr & 1st Half, and Troy 1st Qtr and 1st Half.

BOLTA!!
 
Rice is still looking like a good candidate for me.

UAB's schedule has been pretty poor to date and for a team that won 19 games combined the last 2 years, they are off fairly substantially so far this year. The OL is probably their biggest weakness and banged up, allowing pressure and not creating holes. They lost 7 of their top 9 tacklers and while the D has done well so far, they have faced Bama St, Akron, South Bama and WKU - some of the worst teams around.

Rice has played Army, WF, Texas, Baylor and LaTech and they played most pretty tough. Might they be beat up and running a little empty here? I am worried about that, but they have bye on deck so I think they go out strong to try and bag a win before the break. There is growth in the Owls team this year compared to UAB's decline.
 
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