Week 6 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Week 5 Results :
Washington St +180
Utah St +100
Maryland +405
Marshall +135
North Texas +245
New Mexico +140
Troy +875

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/money-line/


Not many winners (7) in Week 5 but 2 teams payed out a nice ticket if you tailed M.O.T & s--k suggestions on Troy & North Texas. Wazzu was another team that was mentioned in last weeks thread.

On to Week 6, Let's get some Winners fellas!

Good Luck
 
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vk said:
Was Troy a case of wrong team favored?
Click to expand...

Only advantage for LSU I saw was back 7 on defense. Troy had no problem with the LOS matchup.

A few things did go Troy's way. LSU fumbled first play of game leading to Troy TD and they never trailed from there. Everyone probably saw the play right before halftime with them putting :02 back on the clock and getting the teams out of the locker room. Had they not incorrectly said the clock ran out and if everyone just stayed on the field and the refs moved the chains, I don't think Troy would've ever got the FG unit on the field in a fire drill situation to make that kick and if they tried to spike it with just :01 or :02 left it may've it :00 on the spike. There best hope would've been to throw in the EZ and see what happens there. As it went, it was a perfect scenario that unfolded for Troy to get that FG and that barely was good bouncing off the crossbar and through. But if Troy didn't get that FG then they probably would've played different in the second half without those extra 3 pt margin, either being more aggressive to score more or being more aggressive in preventing LSU from scoring. So you just never can say.

Then Troy busted that big run down to the 1 and it still took them 4 plays to score on 4th down for the TD.

If they played again this week, you'd probably have to favor LSU by 6 maybe if they played at home? I might still bet Troy at 6 though.

The thing about Troy is that they haven't been exactly playing great this year. It isn't like they rolled into as a machine or some really hot team.
 
Thanks for doing this Colt
Was a rough week for the dogs, a few but not many barking.
Managed to break even with big bets on Georgia, Baylor, TxTech points and had Troy points and ML but rest of mine lost
Hope week 6 has some gems for us all
 
Definitely will be playing SMU ML
Likely to be on Southern Miss even though UTSA has been good to me this year
Considering NWestern, Mich St, UNC
 
I guess I'll throw a few out for conversation purposes.

NCSt +165
UCONN +410
NW +450
WVU +410
UAB +380
U-LA-LA +250
KSt +150
Mizzou +250
AZ +240
Wazzou +140
Utah +210
 
booksbestfriend said:
I guess I'll throw a few out for conversation purposes.

NCSt +165
UCONN +410
NW +450
WVU +410
UAB +380
U-LA-LA +250
KSt +150
Mizzou +250
AZ +240
Wazzou +140
Utah +210
Click to expand...
I'll be on wazzou for sure. Those injuries for Oregon could be huge. Don't know yet if they add out for this upcoming game. The 2nd string quarterback got hurt as well Saturday night.
 
Utah, Missouri, West Virginia, Louisiana Lafayette, Connecticut, and if course Washington st as I stated earlier are strong leans for me
 
No chance I'd touch WSU with your money this week. First roadie of the season 6 weeks in after that win...prime for letdown.
 
Lots of small dogs this week that can win, I limit my ML plays to those offering better return. Not a big list to my liking to pick from.

Ball State +222
I was disappointed with Ball's performance last week, I had a small ats play on them. I had seen a team that could've / should've beat Illinois in the opener and played WKU in a tight game as well (misleading final). But that was with Neal at QB and I overestimated veteran backup's ability to lead the O. And then I was reminded just how good WM is in all phases, they are just at a different level, I think I put too much emphasis on their lackluster game vs Idaho. Compared to WM however, I do not think Akron is at a different level, instead I see them at the same level as BSU. Of note RB Warren Ball broke his fibula last week, so one of Zips only difference makers on O is out and QB Woodson has been up and down (52% compl last 2 weeks) as he adjusts to new receiving targets. Akron was also involved in a misleading final last week at BGSU. Need to look into Ball St a little more, it is gut check time for them 0-1 in MAC and bye on deck. This is definitely a winnable game and important game for them.

New Mexico State +292
I've been on NMSt alot this year and I like them. Depending on your number last week you either won, lost or pushed ats. They never had any chance at a SU win, their D just couldn't stop the Hog O which was mostly expected. A couple key errors made it more than a 2 score game. An INT in the EZ and a fumble on a KO killed them. But otherwise I thought they were competitive and really liked the play of Rogers. The running game was nonexistent and I was surprised they didn't get Rose more involved in the passing game. You can see the improvement 2016 to 2017. In their only Sun Belt game to date they lost to Troy 27-24, last year they lost to Troy 52-6. Last year they lost to App St 37-7, this year ?. I am concerned about back-to-back weeks of long travel. App St is a very solid team, they haven't played up to their potential or shown to be quite as good as last season, but are off a bye and I assume will play better because of it. But NMSt is one of those teams that I am kind of riding, I've taken them as a dog in every game and 3-0-1 so far with 1 outright upset to boot.

SMU +211
SMU has really done a lot of good things this year, I see solid improvement in their D and their O is much more consistent. Houston is better off with Potma at QB, but they lack the magic they often had with Ward the last several years. I do think the Houston D is pretty good, but I wasn't overly impressed with them vs Texas Tech actually. They have done very well vs limited Os like Temple and Rice, but SMU O is not limited. I think SMU D should be able to matchup here and SMU O should stress Houston D that is probably a step or two back from last couple seasons. I am not much of a Ben Hicks fan, hopefully he can avoid mistakes and properly distribute the ball because SMU has good playmakers for sure.

Nebraska +367
Going against Wisconsin again, hard to do with Tanner Lee and difficult to run the ball on Wisconsin. I feel like Husker D can play better than NW did last week. NW was able to pressure Hornibrook and he looked uncomfortable. He did miss some open receivers that would've been big plays, so I'm not sure if he evolved into the 18 of 19 QB he completed vs BYU is the guy who shows up every week. Take that game out and the 2 other games in the last 3 have seen him complete just 56% for a 2-3 TD-INT ratio. Guess we'll find out if the Nebraska D that faced NIU, Rut and ILL is the real deal or not...Wisconsin is not NIU, Rut and ILL obviously! So kind of going out on a limb with Husker D in this matchup. And out on a limb with the O as well! If, IF, Tanner Lee can play a clean game this game should be decided in the 4th qrt as it has the last 2 years (or OT).
 
Some quick look dogs

Nebraska - Have been a weird team that has looked better in their road games than home games. Wisconsin sits on a lot of short routes with their pass pressure getting there so fast against many opponents. Not necessarily a good thing when Lee is known for the pick six and is not scared to throw short over the middle. Nebraska D looks legit to me and that means they likely don't get run out of their own building. Similar talent levels obviously. Coach has been known to pull off a big upset or two over the years and I think his teams tend to get better as the season goes. Rush defense has been really good so would expect them to force the qb to beat them. Should be a one score game late one way or the other.

Connecticut - Capable of scoring. Not sure what Memphis health but if they are still unhealthy, they aren't that good. Just got doors blown off in a game they should have cared about against an average opponent. Deceiving score last week with uconn/smu with it being tied a few minutes into the 4th. Uconn might be getting better offensively as the season goes as they get more comfortable with their new pace and so forth.

Texas State - Ulm sucks

West Virginia - VT performance has lost some luster. Both teams off of a bye but wvu off a second half letdown performance and TCU off the big win. TCU defense will have to defend plays in this game. Shootout where anything could happen.


Air Force - Not sure there is much difference between the two. Not sure why I haven't played afa to be honest.

NMSU - tough out and run defense has been improved making it less likely that app st just runs it down their throats like they would have in past years. Offense is seasoned and they are used to this role.

Southern Miss - What would this line have been week 1?

SMU - Houston defense is good and their offense is average. That usually is a formula for good midrange dog but bad midrange favorite.

Georgia Southern - would be more interested on georgia southern if it was a short week but ark st off a bye.
 
Don't want the impression that I don't respect Wisconsin, just maybe their style lends itself to underestimate their capabilities, but they are proven very capable at what they do and run.

Having said that, with Nebraska's new D I think what we've seen is they struggled vs experienced well run spread attacks in Arkansas St and Oregon and utilize a bend-don't-break philosophy vs that style. I would think the conventional style from Wisconsin to be something they can matchup ok against. Now that isn't to say that Wisconsin can't out execute them because they can, but just the perceived matchup I expect Nebraska to be able to hold their own on D.

Another thing with the new 3-4 alignment Nebraska has installed, the O has gone against it alot more in practice and would help their familiarity with what Wisconsin does more than in the past. So in terms of assignments and blitz pick-ups...in theory the new Nebraska D should help their O in this specific game because of what Wisconsin runs.

But Wisconsin has a new DC as well, Jim Leonard. At first I was skeptical about him, never being a coordinator, maybe just 1 year being a position coach? While there is still alot more football ahead than behind, I think Leonard has done a fine job so far. Maybe our Wisconsin friends can chime in on what they think of Leonard or how it's different than before?
 
UConn is a possibility. Blowout loss to UCF may be hard to get over.

VPI could also have a bit of a letdown after the loss to Clemson. BC is a worth a look.
 
Teams with multiple upsets so far (odds from scoresandodds)

Cal +410, +237
Maryland +664, +416
New Mexico +263, +130
North Carolina State +344, +135
San Diego State +125, +249
South Carolina +267, +115
 
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Betting injuries imo is normally a bad idea. Peope overestimate the importance of talent relative to that of scheme fit. I feel like a GT guy would understand that well
 
Haha,

Thanks I needed that. I do not think the last 2 games are indicative of Vandy, quite the opposite. I believe that UGA will continue to be strong but conservative wirh Kirby, I played Comms +17.5. We will see. I dont think they win either, but this program is not Tenn. It has not given up.
 
I think a case can be made for Vandy with the pts, but hard to see it straight up.

Vandy +14 won at UGA last year despite only having 9 first downs and 171 yards to UGA's 23 FD and 421y!

Not a big believer in revenge, but last year's result does is take away any let down angle I think.

Having said that, I think you have to come away from the Vandy-UF game being pretty surprised that VU could move the ball as well as they did there. Couldn't run it, but who would've guessed that Shurmur would pass for 260+ 3 TD and 0 INT? He wasn't very consistent, but on their scoring drives, which were more plentiful than I would've expected he was pretty decent. Vandy hasn't been able to run it at all this year...hard to see that changing unless those 3 D starters are really key players for UGA.
 
I agree you can make a case for Vandy. But on such a large card do you really want to risk going against Georgia right now? And a team that can't block or get any run game going on offense. Tho I agree their run defense should be way better
 
Some of the value is gone as it's down to 4 but Utah is a live dog. I will likely nibble on the ML small.
 
Likely to be on Southern Miss even though UTSA has been good to me this year
Click to expand...

Southern Miss - What would this line have been week 1?
Click to expand...

I'm starting to think about SMiss here, not sure if I will ML yet, but will take the pts. I had previously thought SMiss was vulnerable fav, but now with the tables turned and them a sizable dog, feel like they are worth a look.

What would this number been week 1? SMiss would've been favored, is that what your numbers would indicate? Houston was -11 in their canceled game week 1 at UTSA. SMiss was -16 there last year, but knowing the result of that game, I'd say that number was off a bit, still SMiss would've been favored. Unfortunately they have to play them in San Antonio back-to-back years, something with a schedule glitch that came from adding UAB back into the league.

We know what UTSA is capable of, we saw it last year, hanging with Arz St...beating both SMiss and MTSU as 3 score underdogs. Right off the bat just destroyed SMiss with Mullen last year. They are pretty good for sure. I don't feel that SMiss is 'bad' though just because they lost to NTexas. They did lead 21-7 and NT was 4-of-4 on 4th down (all led to eventual NT scores). NTexas does have the #1 Total O and Scoring O in CUSA.

UTSA has some great numbers this year, but that is because they've played Baylor week 2, Southern and Texas St - talk about stat padders.

Kind of strange they each played Southern.

  • UTSA won 52-17 gaining 502, 7.3 ypp and holding them to 149, 2.5 ypp. They led 48-0 HT. Southern's pts were set up off TOs incl a pick-six.
  • SMiss won 45-0 gaining 477, 6.3 ypp and holding them to 140y, 2.7 ypp. They led 35-0 HT and fumbled on the 11 and missed a FG from the 7 in the 1st half.
Pretty similar stuff. Not that it means the teams are even, just that the both man-handled the same overmatched opponent.

SMiss only beat ULM 28-17, but did rack up 534y outgaining ULM by 200y in the process.

Griggs can be a little shaky but does have some excellent weapons around him (RB Smith, WRs Staggers, Robertson). Same can be said for UTSA, led by Strumm with RB Rhodes and WRs Steward, Thomas, Jones. More known All-Conference types on D, although some currently unknown SMiss defenders will likely land on the All Conf list at season's end, they always do.

UTSA #2 CUSA Total O, SMiss #3. UTSA #1 CUSA Total D, SMiss #2

Just feels like it could end up a close competitive game, even with last year's result in mind.

Game will be streamed on the stadium facebook page -
https://www.facebook.com/StadiumCollegeFootball/
 
been out of town so not much time to post
Going to play the following points and ML

SMU +7 and +220
Utah +4 and +155
Southern Miss +13 and +360
Nebraska +11 and +325
Northwestern +14 and +415

Good luck to all
 
Read Ball St was without 7 week one starters last week. QB Neal has missed 2 games, something in his knee that supposedly two doctors have not seen before? RB Gilbert still out, tore a ligament in his finger or thumb, can't play yet. Those two are big. Without Neal, they go with Sr Milas, who can be servicable, 12 career starts, but he isn't close to as good as Neal. And Gilbert was 1st Team MAC last year, that is a big loss too. They are utilizing a Fr and Soph instead at RB now (those two just about 3 ypc last 2 games).

A couple others may be back this week. Jr CB Walton may play after a groin injury, he started all 12 last year (14 pbu 4th MAC '16). Sr LG Palazeti (21 career starts) was out, expected back. Sr OL who started all 12 last year, Pat Maloney was medically disqualified before the season started. Even without Maloney, I thought when they played Illinois in the opener BSU's line play was better than ILL's. Especially BSU's DL. Anthony Wimbush leads the nation in sacks (7.5) and the team leads the MAC in TFL. It's a pretty good DL unit.

Justin Hall is a Frosh WR for them, leads the nation for Fr in receptions (35), #1 MAC receptions and has led BSU in receiving in last 4 games. He went 13-121 last week.

I am still going to take Ball State ats, but going to lay off the ML. Think they can win, not high on Akron without Warren Ball. Akron can be passed on, allow 66% compl and are without S Captain Sr Zach Guiser for the season as well.

Third straight road game for Ball St, 0-2 ats, although they should've covered and could've won at WKU.

Feels like an even game where a turnover at the wrong time will tilt it one way or the other.
 
New Mexico State didn't get to their hotel last night until 2:30am due to air travel issues.
 
s--k said:
New Mexico State didn't get to their hotel last night until 2:30am due to air travel issues.
Click to expand...
Travel stuff intrigues me but after that game a couple years ago where Kst had all those plane issues but still won and covered handily I don't like betting travel info anymore haha.
 
Big jump in the SMU numbers...not seeing any reasons. Ed Oliver game time decision (sprained MCL). SMU CB Jordan Wyatt is back after missing last week.
 
SMU 50 to win 138
Nebraska 50 to win 151
South Carolina 50 to win 72
SMiss 10 to win 36
NM St 10 to win 41
 
I bet on AU, so pretty much guaranteed they'll lose to ole miss. I am more wrong about them than any other team, and it's not close
 
JROCK1966 said:
So who has Iowa State ML??
Click to expand...

Haha, yeah would be nice. Hard to see that one coming. But that is where the greatest upsets come from, out of nowhere. Another rough day for OU All-Big Xll CB Jordan Thomas, couple PI calls giving up go ahead TD right there, got burned by Baylor two weeks ago.
 
s--k said:
SMU 50 to win 138
Nebraska 50 to win 151
South Carolina 50 to win 72
SMiss 10 to win 36
NM St 10 to win 41
Click to expand...

Pretty much just broke even here, but hurts when the 3 losses don't cover ats. NMSt threw 6 INTs, yet was tied or a one score game throughout. App St broke like a 50y TD run trying to kill the clock. SMU had a 1st and goal before HT, but came away with zero pts and their final 3 drives they threw INTs at the goal line, at the 5 and were SOD around the 30. Nebraska was in a 17-17 game with each team having a D score, one big O score and a FG each. Then Wisconsin just mauled them. And it took me two weeks to realize Ball St just isn't good, atleast I realized not to risk more on a ML with them. Disappointed. But always a fun process, look forward to next week.
 
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