Week 6 in the FCS

Got here 45 minutes late because I forgot my money of all things.

20 miles down the highway and I'm like shit I have to go back

Doubt anyone was going to loan me 5k
 
The one good thing about being 45 minutes late is that with their rapid fire pace in putting these games up I only missed three.
 
I signed up for Hard Rock. Like I need another book like I need a hole in my head. They offer alt lines on all their FCS-FCS games, which I have typically not seen on any ohter domestic book with rare exception. So I like that. Plus they operate exclusively in a state I will be in later this year
 
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That FAMU-MVSU game isn't being played this week

  • The Florida A&M versus Mississippi Valley State football game has been postponed and relocated.
  • Originally scheduled for Oct. 4 in Atlanta, the game will now be played on Nov. 29 in Mississippi.
  • The change follows months of uncertainty about the game being held at Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
  • Both teams will now have an unexpected bye week before their next scheduled games.
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Falling asleep again. Lots of tough lines and not much movement on most
 
Not a lot of action for me. Kind of boring.

Just took some SFA + but might come back on UIW ML or + them if it goes too far expecting a tight game there. Think UIW wins

MLs: UCA and AP

Under: SB-Alb

Dogs: NAU and B-CU
 
I've only made 29 bets at the open, like half my normal amount. I haven't had a good week of prep could be part of it, but just not really into the schedule or the numbers.
 
Last game is up. Took Ov Mont-ISU. Montana obviously can score on most anyone and especially ISU. Think one of Montana's top CBs is hurt, Lawler I believe, arm in sling? They have other DBs, but ISU will be throwing it around pretty sure. Like Porky Pig says "that's all folks". Nice to actually see the end of the release for a change and not be in bed or passed out
 
Going back and looking at some games...

Had some interest in UTRGV, but they opened -7.5. Now -3.5. Think people must be fading UTGRV because I don't see any qualities in HCU worth backing. 2 games vs FCS (at EKU and hosting No Colo) HCU has run for a TOTAL of 82y in both (1.5ypc), passed for 49% completions for 4.7 ypa. 1 TD in 4 RZ trips, about 14% 3rd down conversion O. They gained 259 (3.4) at EKU and 200 (3.4) vs UNC. Really bad O. Would say that D was good vs EKU, but EKU O had not hatched on the season yet back in week 2...UNC gained 437 (4.8) on them. It is an offensive revival of sorts in Greeley this year, but that was UNC's highest total yardage in a game this year (ypp of 4.8 is below their ssn avg however). I just don't know why anyone would want to put money on HCU given what they have done this year. Off a bye, so there is that. Rio Grand Valley has put up some guady numbers this year, but they played 2 NAIA and a Dll. They did beat PV by 6 as 5.5pt road dog with a 408-300 (6.2-4.6) yardage edge. They last week they were big dogs at SLU and did trail 0-21, 7-28 and 17-42 late. Then they scored a lot of pts late, but they did show some offensive capability. The D is another matter, but that was vs SLU. What has HCU done this year on O to make them a threat? UTRGV has played 3 home games, but this is their first hosting a Dl team, first time hosting a conference team and they have a nice stadium and their last game was a sellout crowd. HCU looks like a great opponent for them to get their first Dl home victory against. UTRGV has gotten a little too much love and hype, some people thinking they should be ranked. This is not that, this is as much of a play against HCU as it is on the play of UTRGV. I will probably ML this or alt line it instead of laying the 3.5
 
The two late (8:00) Big Sky games...

I would like more points and take Idaho State. Kind of looking as a sell high play on Montana as I do respect what they have accomplished and how they are doing it so I don't love playing against them. But do believe that Idaho State can be within a couple scores of them here. Suppose the best thing one could say about ISU so far is that they played very well vs UNLV and at New Mexico, but there is a chance that if they played those two teams right now they would lose by more than they did at the time for one reason or another. And Southern Utah, who I believe is a quality team even though not necessarily a good team, SUU did beat them pretty bad. Last year, ISU looks to have taken it on the chin vs a couple playoff teams at home, however, while Montana State beat them 37-17, that game was just 17-10 early 4Q. And Idaho beat them 40-17, but that was 30-17 before Vandals scored the final 10. So the perception is this team just gets blown out from the opening KO and that hasn't always been the case. I get interested at 17.5 and would like something over 20, with the way the Griz have played the last 2 weeks chance it gets there. Montana impressive vs Vandals, but that Idaho O is a one-man show at QB making things happen as he can who was starting their 3rd string RB who was less than 100%. Indiana State on their backup QB. I'm thinking ISU O has some potential here, more so than who the Griz have played the last 2 weeks. Griz D is allowing 6.1 ypp vs FCS. This is kind of sneaky test for the D as it could resemble something closer to what they saw in North Dakota (460 ttl yards allowed including 202 rush). Yes ISU will try and run now and RB Brooks missed some time but was back last week (18att-137-2TD vs UNLV and he had 26att-161 vs UNC last week).

How to rate Cal Poly? Beat San Diego pretty soundly, which isn't awesome, but appears San Diego is one of the better Pioneer teams. I did not think that SFA played especially well vs them and maybe that had something to do with CP putting up some resistence on D? Last week 3 INTs were key at Sac State. CP made some plays to their credit, but think it was a little bit more about mistakes that Sac St made. Probably think that CP is a tougher out that Weber was last week for Davis, which my opinion on Weber is very low. UCD started slow in that one and still led 34-6. I'm not sure I really have anything on this game.
 
Could a bye break momentum for Tarleton? Pretty sure we have all enjoyed Tarleton games this year. The cover vs Chattanooga was hard for them, came late and relied upon a 4th down conversion near midfield and then a break-away 35y run in the final 2 minutes. UTC actually ran very well on them and had 8.0ypp in that one, but had weak QB play. I said above Southern Utah is not a good team, becasue good teams do not lose the games they have lost. I do think they are somewhat of a quality team though. Some close games, were tied with West Georgia last week before losing on a last second FG. UC Davis beat them 50-34, that game was just 29-27 3Q. SUU led NAU 49-42, but lost the lead with :29 left on an NAU TD+2pt conversion. This is a team that is better than their record, but clearly they do enough things badly that contributes to their losses. 22.5 is a big number, which it should be given what Tarleton has done. Tarleton won 38-37 last year in OT and infact the 5 games in the series from 2021-2024 have been decided by a total of 9 pts. I don't think Gabalis means quite as much as I think Greek can get the job done in his absence short-term. I could see myself on Southern Utah. Their D has been bad, but weren't so bad last week vs West Georgia. I think that might be more of a West Georgia thing than a great thing for SUU D (which in part led me to taking AP against WG this week)...I don't know if this WG D can hold up if Tarleton is at the level they were before their bye. That's a concern, but this spread is over 3 TDs so some cushion. If it does turn into a track meet, SUU has played games like that this year.
 
I took the +4.5 on SFA at the open, but I believe I am more interested now in getting UIW to win the game. I think SFA has been a disappointment and some of their recent wins in which they covered as favs ATS hide it. The O was a no-show at Houston, ok, their D did play well. After scoring TDs on their F2 drives vs ACU, the O was MIA the rest of the game (29y on next SEVEN drives and their other TD was a garbage punt ret TD). SFA D again did not play bad in this one, ACU had fum rec in EZ for TD and another short field TD after a second SFA fum, so considering, the Lumberjack D was ok in that one. Then the last 2 weeks, vs CP the SFA O F8 drives all under 50y each, scored on punt ret TD as part of their 18 pt win margin. O was just average. CP outgained them by 3y. Same with the McNeese game, F4 drives just 10 total yards! They did get it going, partially aided by TOs and short fields. The D was better vs McNeese than the O really. Needed a TD with 1:51 while they were killing clock to win by 17. Definitley have some play makers on this team at RB and WR and Vidlak has 7-0 ratio after starting the year with an 0-2 ratio first 2 games. I've just come away less than impressed with the production of this O vs some not very great teams McNeese and CP and vs better teams ACU and UH it was poor.

Incarnate Word has been a different team since the QB change. Colson is very mobile and can run, which all the great recent UIW QBs were able to run and make plays, Torres could not and behind a shaky OL that was a bad combination. Colson played the 2H at UTSA when they were already in a hole and did well (17-24-213-3-0) made his first start at NAU and NAU won that game 31-23 and was the better team, but UIW was close (UIW outgained them 436-402 6.6-6.4). Colson hit 79% with a 2-0 ratio and led the team in rushing. Last week UIW was great vs a previously hot ACU team and won 38-7! 423-248 (4.8-5.0) with Colson's passing have less impact (57% 122y and 1-0 ratio), but the team ran for a bunch and Colson contributed 103y on the ground with 2 TDs. So the UIW O is working like it is supposed to now. The D made a statement last week vs ACU, held them nearly 120y below their average.

I think given some of the lackluster O that SFA has played, the potential that UIW D showed last week, the improvement that UIW O has displayed with Colson and now a new WR (Garcia) which strengthens the overall unit. Just see UIW finally being what they were supposed to be and SFA teetering on failing to meet the preseason expectations.
 
I hate weeks when I can't obsess on football the entire week. Hopefully will have more time later. Next week is going to be a bitch
 
One thing I have to get off my chest, why in the hell is the Stony Brook - Albany total still 50.5? Albany does not score. 6 on UNH, 13 on Cornell, only 17 on New Haven who everyone sets season high scoring outbursts against. So Albany scored 32 on Delaware State. Well, Sacred Heart came into their game vs DSU last week averaging 19.25 ppg, they went for 35 on DSU so I am not going to take Albany's score vs DSU as any kind of 'hey this O showed they were good a couple weeks ago' mentality. The DSU game is the only Albany game to go Over all year (avg total 48). Albany O doesn't score and their D is just good enough to also limit opponents from scoring much...again, except for DSU who has scored well on everyone (avg 36.25 ppg vs 4 FCS opponents). Albany D kept UNH to 24, Cornell to 10 and NH to 24 the last 3 weeks (and allowed just 287 ypg in those 4.6ypp).

So Stony Brook is better I believe than any of the teams that Albany has played the last 3 weeks. SB FCS games have gone Over at a 2-1-1 rate with one of the games going over by .5 pt (at LW 57 combined on a 56.5 pt total). I think Albany is actually the worst O that SB has played all year, worse than Merrimack (who scored 10), worse than Fordham (who scored 18), definitley way worse than Lindenwood (scored 30) and way worse than URI (scored 31).

I hadn't really liked laying SB with the points, but maybe I should consider it. Albany O has scored more than 20pts just twice over their last 9 games...and one of those they scored 7 in the 1H and then launched a furious comeback in the finale vs Hampton. In those last 9 FCS games, the Under in Albany games is 7-1-1 (avg total 47.4).

These two played last year and it was 24-6 SB as a 4pt home fav (total 47.5).

Sometimes I don't understand totals and lose on them. On this one I can only think that once it becomes more accessible to other bettors tomorrow it is going to drop atleast a few points.
 
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Gonna just post this now for D2 games at MyBookie. Won't be around much tomorrow. Here's what I'll be playing if available (and that's a big if) been getting burned on games they don't post. Really aggravating


Northern St at + money over Bemidji St (Bemidji is -2.5 on Massey)

Central Washington/ENMU over 52.5. Probably a pipe dream this gets posted.

Lenoir Rhyne is +11.5 vs Valdosta St. Worth a money line play. Outside shot it could actually have a spread too.

Colorado Mesa +17.5 vs Colorado Mines. The Mines game actually had a spread last week, not just moneyline. I probably wouldn't play the ML but I will play +17.5 if there happens to be a line.

Northern Michigan +21.5 vs Saginaw Valley. Doubtful there is a spread. The ML seems unlikely, but I've seen worse bets at +800 or higher.
 
OK, back to a somewhat 'normal' football day for me after a busy week. We are going to the South Dakota State - YSU game at 5, which it always makes me nervous to be away from the games and the betting. I do feel obligated to attend one big YSU game a year and this is it. Atleast it is later in the day so everything else up to that point can be normal.

How about Brown last night? I was too conflicted to know what to expect. Brown is usually the team committing turnovers, throwing picks, but last night were +4 margin!

On to Saturday!
 
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That is a lot of games to sort through in an expected short period of time. Hope they leave them up for a while
 
Fairmont State might be a decent dog on the +161. S&P+ has them winning 32.7-31.1. Glenville has won the last 2 years, but only be a total of 5 pts and 7 of the last 9 have been one-score games. Competitive series
 
Can Minnesota Duluth get the Over, 48.5, themselves? I got burned on a one-sided blowout Over last week with Permian Basin
 
Reddit has Post favored and S&P+ has St Anselm winning just 27.7-26.7. Post is 3-0 at home. St Anselm usually wins big against them which is probably why Massey has -7.5 and CPA says Massey tends to take historical weight more into consideration. Think I will take a chance on Post's special season continuing at +270 (went 1-9 last year).
 
s--k said:
Reddit has Post favored and S&P+ has St Anselm winning just 27.7-26.7. Post is 3-0 at home. St Anselm usually wins big against them which is probably why Massey has -7.5 and CPA says Massey tends to take historical weight more into consideration. Think I will take a chance on Post's special season continuing at +270 (went 1-9 last year).
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Seemingly why they keep overvaluing Valdosta.

I threw $10 on Northern Michigan +1325.

Probably all for me today. Got called in on my off day and of course MB puts up like 50 games
 
Reddit has Sioux Falls favored by 4.5. For a 5-0 team at a 3-2 team, Massey has Augustana just -3.5 S&P has Augustana 31.5-24. Augustana looks pretty good. I'm passing on that one
 
56.5 is a high total for Southern Nazarene and Arkansas-Monticello. Those teams combined have been held to 21 or fewer pts 7 of 8 games this year. The highest points either team has achieved so far is just 24
 
s--k said:
Reddit has Sioux Falls favored by 4.5. For a 5-0 team at a 3-2 team, Massey has Augustana just -3.5 S&P has Augustana 31.5-24. Augustana looks pretty good. I'm passing on that one
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Augie is super banged up. I don't who is/out today for them. They had alot of guys hurt last week
 
Where did all the D2 odds go?

LOL

Only leave them up for 20 minutes and poof they are gone, never to return again.
 
Richmond will start back-up quarterback Ashten Snelsire, a senior who steps in for senior Kyle Wickersham, out with a leg injury suffered against Howard.
 
Yeah you got to act quick on the Dll games.

The Richmond - Bucknell line dropped at open with the QB for Richmond being ruled out and the backup being awful vs Howard. Little buy back on Spiders now up to -4.5.

Really surprised the Morgan - Georgetown total is still high. Opened 50.5 and 49.5 now. Lautner is expected to still be out for GT and with the backups Hoya O has generated 0 and 10 pts in the last 2 games and a TOTAL of 394y in both.

Morgan D held Towson to their lowest yardage output of the season. Morgan has played two FBS and two Dll, so not easy to get a read on them, but they normally have the top D in the MEAC. Two of their key guys on O were hurt last week, don't know status, and their OL has been down a few starters the last several weeks. I don't know where to get Morgan football updates. Would assume this is an ugly offensive game.
 
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