Florida ML (+130) ----- REG
Ride & die w/ the Gators I suppose. There's no real reason to back Florida I suppose. But I still believe this offense has very good potential, & (as I'll state later), I think their last game was more of an example that Bama's defense is just really good. Also, that game was a terrible offensive gameplan for the Gators, so hopefully with an extra week off Roper is finally getting the grasp that he needs to quit throwing deep balls constantly & start getting Driskel in a rhythm. Another thing here is I think there is tremendous line value here....& in a lot of games this week I think there is overreaction from the last games played by teams. Florida gets beat down by a really good Bama team, Tennessee had a week off to prepare for Georgia & gave it their all on the field. I think it's a huge schedule/situation advantage for Florida, as well as some over reaction to last weeks games. I think Muschamp will finally simple things up for this secondary b/c they are thinking way too much & getting out of position constantly, & Roper will finally get the offense back into a rhythm. Another positive (more funny than serious), is that a local radio host who is 0-5 in his "Lock of the Week" picked Tennessee this week. #fade
Old Dom (+17.5) ----- Small Potatoes
No reason for this pick. Just the fact that I am going to fade Marshall on the road until they either A.) make me back my money I lost when I bet against them vs. Akron 2 weeks ago, or B.) run out of road games to play this year.
Va Tech (-2.5) ----- Small Potatoes
I would go REG on this one.....but for some reason I hate laying any points here. Regardless, Va Tech's defense is still good, & should be able to limit UNC a bit. On the other side, I'm hoping that Loehfler will stop trying to get cute w/ throw the ball constantly & just run the football more b/c UNC can be had in all phases on defense, & it will in turn help Brewer. I like the fact that Brewer has looked good on the road so I don't expect him to be fased by the home crowd.
Bama (-4.5) ----- MASTERED
I am very open about how I don't think Saban & Smart have the whole HUNH offenses figured out, but Ole Miss version is an exception here. Main reason is b/c I don't think Ole Miss has the run game to make it hurt Bama. I think Bama should be able to shut down Ole Miss run game, & Bo Wallace will have to play the best game of his life in order for Ole Miss to win or even keep it close. This Bama D is very, very, very good this year. Furthermore, I love what Kiffin is doing here. He is really utilizing all these offensive weapons in a near perfect way. I never recommend fading Saban after a bye week (unless he is facing a very daunting HUNH offense), & won't be surprised if Bama rolls this one up big. The 1 and only real concern is Blake Sims making his first real road game start in a fairly hostile environment.....if he can keep playing anywhere near where he has to begin the year, then Bama should be fine....but it is a question mark.
South Bama (-3) ----- REGx2
Really want to MASTER this one, but the only thing keeping me away is the back to back roadies S Bama is on. Regardless, App St really isn't even in S. Bama's stratosphere IMO....& S Bama has been very good on the road the last 2 years. Just think USA should have their way w/ App St, & I really don't understand the line movement. I just don't think people have caught up with USA, & the fact that they are one of the best (if not the best) teams in the Sun belt.
UL-Monroe (+12) ----- REG
UL-Monroe ML (+390) ----- Small Potatoes
This line has got to be over reaction to ULM's showing from last week. Troy was due for a good preformance, & they had it against a sluggish ULM team. No chance ULM comes out flat here IMO....& I would actually put these 2 teams equal on a neutral field, if not give ULM a slight edge. Won't be surprised to see Pete Thomas have a field day, & think ULM's defense is better than most people think. Basically, ULM has a QB that can really play, & a defense that has stopped everyone they have played. Arky St has good balance on O, but as long as ULM can contain Knighten in the run game, I wont be surprised if they win SU. ASU luck boxed into beating a Utah St team that was trying to figure out things w/o Keaton. Concern for ULM = both starting CB's may be out, they replace 1 w/ a guy that has started a bunch in his career & the other will be a frosh (eh).
Miami ML (+120)
Straight play on D'Onofrio's past ability to get this defense to slow down Ga Tech greatly. Also, GT hasn't played much of a schedule, whereas Miami is battle tested. This does however have a huge scheduling set back as Miami is bound to be worn down, while GT is fresh off a bye. I still love the progress that I've seen from the offense of Miami at all positions, & think they should be able to slow down GT enough to get a win against a Yellow Jackets team that is getting lots of love for beating Va Tech (and rightfully so)
LSU (+7.5) ----- REG
LSU ML (+255) ----- Small Potatoes
Keeping the Auburn fade train going. I am so excited for this match up b/c Brandon Harris is electric. Of course him & all these true frosh on offense could come into Auburn & get scared and get butt-pounded, but that's a risk I'm ready to take. I still think Auburn is still fighting to find their true rhythm on offense, & although LSU's defense has been vulnerable at times this year, it is nice to note how well they can play against these spread teams. Held Auburn in check last year (although it was early in the year), and have stymied the likes of A&M the last couple years (although it's not the same offense, I know). Basically, think LSU's defense may surprise some people, & gonna put faith in these young studly offensive players. Oh ya....& the Mad Hatter. Also keep in mind all the injuries Auburn has on defense right now......
Pitt (+5) ----- REG
Pitt ML (+180) ----- Small Potatoes
Everyone off the Pitt Panthers train that was rolling a few weeks ago. I thought Iowa would beat them 2 weeks ago, but actually came out impressed w/ Pitt. Last week against Akron was a game that I could give zero turds about when capping this game, actually pissed I didn't bet Akron. Pitt didn't care about that game & was totally let down. So now it gives ridiculous value for them against Virginia. I'm 2-0 betting on UVA this year, & they look very good so far, but my heavens they have no business to be laying points right now IMO. Pitt ran all over Iowa, so I think they will be able to still run on UVA. UVA's defense is all about getting turnovers, so if Pitt can keep it fairly mistake free, then I think they will win this game.
UAB (+9.5) ----- REG
UAB ML (+305) ----- Small Potatoes
Another game that is complete over reaction to last week IMO. UAB has been playing ridiculously well this year, far beyond what I thought. Offense & defense have been balanced & very good. Last week they lose to an awful FIU team, & now we have this lovely line against a WKU team that is down a bit IMO. Last week, UAB turned it over 6 times & gave up 2 long pass plays, or that game would have been a completely different outcome. WKU defense has been dreadful so far this year, & I think UAB could have all kinds of success on the ground here, as well as through the air. I got a terrible line, but still feel like it's too many points & fully believe UAB can win this straight up.
Boise St (-4) ----- REG
Would be MASTERED if I didn't miss out on the line. If it drops back under a FG tomorrow then I'll MASTER it. Nevada is good, but they don't do any one thing particularly well IMO. I MASTERED Nevada last week, & was probably fortunate to get a W on it, but it was more of an awful gameplan by Polian. I'm sure they will have a much better game plan this week, but I also am certain Boise will come out steaming from last week. I have thought for 2 years now that Boise was on their way down, and would not bet this game if they had won last week against Air Force. But after that terrible performance, where they turned the ball over SEVEN times, they are now a must bet. Nevada's defense still giving up over 5ypc on the ground & Boise should be able to run the ball well. Boise should be able to slow down the run game & Fajaro, but they do have depth/injury concerns in the secondary....so yes there are worries about Fajaro's ability to pass on them. Regardless, I highly doubt that BSU will turn the ball over 7 times this week, & think they should be fired up enough to win this game.
ML Parlay (+153)
Ohio St, Clemson, UTSA, ULL, La Tech
This should be decided by 2pm central time IMO....Ohio St is my main concern.
The write-ups suck this week. They are short & kind of scatter brained. I have been a little sick this week & didn't get to delve into the card deep until tonight, although I had games I liked all week. Sorry for the sucky thread this week. It's quite a bit of plays for me I think, hopefully it turns out profitable....regardless I am absolutely fired up for tomorrows slate of games. Oh ya.....God that's a lot of road teams again for the 2nd straight week (eeeeeekk).
I'd love to go bigger on Bama, but gonna keep it where it is.
I might be back tomorrow to MASTER USA & Boise.
BOL gang
