Week 6 Discussion

[B.A.R.]

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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Thu 10/9[/TD]
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[TD]101 Indianapolis Colts[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_21" name="altS1_21" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-2½ -115</option><option value="1">-3 +110</option><option value="2">-2 -120</option><option value="3">-3½ +135</option><option value="4">-1½ -125</option><option value="5">-4 +143</option><option value="6">-1 -132</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -140 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o46 -110 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="E1_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o24 -110 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="E3_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u24 -110 [/TD]
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[TD]8:25PM[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]102 Houston Texans[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_21" name="altS2_21" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+2½ -105</option><option value="1">+3 -130</option><option value="2">+2 +100</option><option value="3">+3½ -155</option><option value="4">+1½ +105</option><option value="5">+4 -163</option><option value="6">+1 +112</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +120 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u46 -110 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="E2_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o22 -110 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="E4_21" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u22 -110 [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Denver Broncos at New York Jets</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/12[/TD]
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[TD]251 Denver Broncos[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_28" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_28" name="altS1_28" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-8½ +110</option><option value="1">-7 -120</option><option value="2">-7½ +100</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_28" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -360 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_28" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o47 -110 [/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]252 New York Jets[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_28" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_28" name="altS2_28" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+8½ -130</option><option value="1">+7 +100</option><option value="2">+7½ -120</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_28" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +300 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_28" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u47 -110 [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/12[/TD]
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[TD]253 Pittsburgh Steelers[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_31" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_31" name="altS1_31" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+1 +100</option><option value="1">+2 -110</option><option value="2">+1½ -105</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_31" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +108 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_31" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o47 -110 [/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]254 Cleveland Browns[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_31" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_31" name="altS2_31" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-1 -120</option><option value="1">-2 -110</option><option value="2">-1½ -115</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_31" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -128 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_31" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u47 -110 [/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/12[/TD]
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[TD]257 Chicago Bears[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_34" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_34" name="altS1_34" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+3 +105</option><option value="1">+3½ -120</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_34" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +155 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_34" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o53½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD]4:25PM[/TD]
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[TD]258 Atlanta Falcons[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_34" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_34" name="altS2_34" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-3 -125</option><option value="1">-3½ +100</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_34" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -175 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_34" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u53½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/12[/TD]
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[TD]259 Green Bay Packers[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_36" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_36" name="altS1_36" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-3 -125</option><option value="1">-3½ +100</option><option value="2">-2½ -150</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_36" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -175 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_36" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o49½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]260 Miami Dolphins[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_36" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_36" name="altS2_36" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+3 +105</option><option value="1">+3½ -120</option><option value="2">+2½ +130</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_36" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +155 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_36" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u49½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/12[/TD]
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[TD]263 Carolina Panthers[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_39" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_39" name="altS1_39" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+7½ -135</option><option value="1">+7 -115</option><option value="2">+6½ +105</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_39" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +250 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_39" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o44 -110 [/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]264 Cincinnati Bengals[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_39" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_39" name="altS2_39" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-7½ +115</option><option value="1">-7 -105</option><option value="2">-6½ -125</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_39" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -300 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_39" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u44 -110 [/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/12[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]265 New England Patriots[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_42" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_42" name="altS1_42" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-3 -115</option><option value="1">-3½ +110</option><option value="2">-2½ -140</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_42" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -165 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_42" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o45 -110 [/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]266 Buffalo Bills[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_42" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_42" name="altS2_42" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+3 -105</option><option value="1">+3½ -130</option><option value="2">+2½ +120</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_42" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +145 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_42" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u45 -110 [/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/12[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]267 Baltimore Ravens[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_45" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_45" name="altS1_45" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-3 -130</option><option value="1">-3½ -105</option><option value="2">-2½ -155</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_45" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -185 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_45" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o43 -110 [/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]268 Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_45" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_45" name="altS2_45" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+3 +110</option><option value="1">+3½ -115</option><option value="2">+2½ +135</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_45" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +160 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_45" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u43 -110 [/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/12[/TD]
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[TD]269 San Diego Chargers[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_48" name="altS1_48" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-7½ +120</option><option value="1">-7 +100</option><option value="2">-6½ -120</option><option value="3">-8 +125</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -290 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o43 -110 [/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
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[TD]4:05PM[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]270 Oakland Raiders[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_48" name="altS2_48" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+7½ -140</option><option value="1">+7 -120</option><option value="2">+6½ +100</option><option value="3">+8 -145</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +245 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u43 -110 [/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 10/12[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]275 New York Giants[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_52" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_52" name="altS1_52" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+1 +105</option><option value="1">+2½ -110</option><option value="2">+2 -105</option><option value="3">+3 -135</option><option value="4">+1½ +100</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_52" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +113 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_52" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o50 -110 [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
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[TD]8:30PM[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]276 Philadelphia Eagles[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_52" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_52" name="altS2_52" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-1 -125</option><option value="1">-2½ -110</option><option value="2">-2 -115</option><option value="3">-3 +115</option><option value="4">-1½ -120</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_52" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -133 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_52" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u50 -110 [/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Mon 10/13[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]277 San Francisco 49ers[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_57" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_57" name="altS1_57" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-3 -125</option><option value="1">-3½ +100</option><option value="2">-2½ -150</option><option value="3">-4 +108</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_57" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -175 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_57" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o43½ -110 [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
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[TD]8:30PM[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]278 St. Louis Rams[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_57" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_57" name="altS2_57" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+3 +105</option><option value="1">+3½ -120</option><option value="2">+2½ +130</option><option value="3">+4 -128</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_57" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +155 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_57" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u43½ -110 [/TD]
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</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[53percent]

Dolphins, yes please

 

[barmeezee]

Bears/Falcons and Giants/Eagles overs i dont think u can make em high enough they both clearin 60 in my opinion

 

[dilaudid8]

BAR whats happening my brother CAR+7.5 look like a great bet

 

[cogenman]

If the Jets weakness is their secondary, Peyton should be able to go off on them. Kind of a big line on the road though.

NYG/Philly OVER 50 looks interesting. Philly this year has scored 34, 30, 37, 21, and 34. Eli has looked sharp lately and their offense has scored 30, 45, and 30 the last 3 weeks. Philly games are just high scoring with the way Chip Kelly likes to play. Every Philly game has gone OVER the total with the exception of the Philly/SF game which fell 1.5 points short.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Where was the Eagles at -1? Is that correct?

 

[cogenman]

Where was the Eagles at -1? Is that correct?

My book has Philly at -2.5. The one posted in post 1 has them at -1 but juiced.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Yea I see -2.5 (-120). It opened at 3, but some early $$ came in on NYG

 

[D-Woww]

First glance:

texans, bucs, bills, bengals/broncs teaser, dolphins, browns, bears/falcons over, cardinals, chargers/broncs teaser

will have to narrow down for sure

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

First glance:

texans, bucs, bills, bengals/broncs teaser, dolphins, browns, bears/falcons over, cardinals, chargers/broncs teaser

will have to narrow down for sure

Want to play Bills, but don't like them as much after that big win last week. Agree on Cardinals, as I think Palmer will do everything in his power to play this week.

Texans will probably be an auto-bet for me. But these Thursday games are always a crap shoot.

 

[D-Woww]

See i look at the bills slightly different: they won that huge game & now come home full of confidence ready to show that they are legit division contenders. Meanwhile the Pats are coming off a huge game but that win is kinda masking the face that theyve been garbage besides that

 

[GWarner27]

Dolphins, yes please

close to zero HFA, please go on i need to avenge a 2-3 week in the SuperContest

 

[GWarner27]

Bears/Falcons and Giants/Eagles overs i dont think u can make em high enough they both clearin 60 in my opinion

agree bears over, don't understand the 54 opener dropping to 53.5 across the board right now though?

 

[GWarner27]

My book has Philly at -2.5. The one posted in post 1 has them at -1 but juiced.

shady number seems really low even with the recent respect NYG has been getting. Also think the HOU line is flat out wrong, should be -3

 

[The Capping Genius]

2 best ML bets on the board. Browns, Colts.
Best ATS bet on the board Chargers -6.5 -120.
Best underdog bet on the board. Dallas +9.5 -125.
Best Dog ML Bet. Dallas +310

 

[Lareux]

See i look at the bills slightly different: they won that huge game & now come home full of confidence ready to show that they are legit division contenders. Meanwhile the Pats are coming off a huge game but that win is kinda masking the face that theyve been garbage besides that

The only thing is the Pats have beaten the Bills 20 out of the last 21 times, and 25 out of 27. It's been pretty much just utter domination of the Bills for over a decade, with only 3 of those last 20 wins coming by 3pts or less. It's almost mind boggling that one team could dominate another over such a long period of time in today's NFL.

 

[2daBank]

Bears/Falcons and Giants/Eagles overs i dont think u can make em high enough they both clearin 60 in my opinion

already played chi/atl ov 53.5.. told myself before open it would take 56.5 to even give me pause.. i like gmen more than that total. it prob get over but phillys offense been a mess, dont think their streak of defensive and special teams scores continues here. their red zone offense been horribly inefficient while gmen have been playing strong defense down there, holding a falcons team who converts a higher rate than anyone to 33% on sunday.. i dont really expect philly to score more than 20-23 points. i do think nyg can get to 30 but 27 isnt out of the question.. gmen my fav side of the week tho so no interest in giving the total a ton of time..

 

[2daBank]

The only thing is the Pats have beaten the Bills 20 out of the last 21 times, and 25 out of 27. It's been pretty much just utter domination of the Bills for over a decade, with only 3 of those last 20 wins coming by 3pts or less. It's almost mind boggling that one team could dominate another over such a long period of time in today's NFL.

yea but rodgers had dominated lions throughout his career right up until his last visit to det. i just think it hard to put a lot of stock into that when times are changing. i remember bills giving pats everything they wanted in the season opener last yr. ultimately pats got them but that was of coarse with ej as the qb.. i think it bills or nothing. i def would have liked a couple more points tho..

 

[2daBank]

2 best ML bets on the board. Browns, Colts.
Best ATS bet on the board Chargers -6.5 -120.
Best underdog bet on the board. Dallas +9.5 -125.
Best Dog ML Bet. Dallas +310

raiders off a bye and while a mess they have been for some time yet always manage to make this gm way more competitive than it should be.. dont get me wrong i love this chargers team but no way am i laying a td in a gm that is like the raiders superbowl, off a ass whipping in london, a coaching change, and a bye.. no thanx.

 

[austinhous]

Since 2009 NFL games have landed on 9 less than 1% percent of the time. It's the worst number you can have when playing the dog in the NFL.

 

[2daBank]

Since 2009 NFL games have landed on 9 less than 1% percent of the time. It's the worst number you can have when playing the dog in the NFL.

plus there that whole seachickens whip teams at home thing.. while we commenting on rest of tcg card i think it strange that if he was that confident in cle and indy then why not lay the 2/2,5 points? i mean spread certainly could come into play i think cause i think they close gms, just seems weird that if you worried about 2 points that the best ml bet would be laying juice in such a gm, doesnt it? personally dogs bout the only ml bets i like, from time to time maybe parlay bigger favs im real confident in.

 

[austinhous]

I don't know, man. But CG laid it down the past two weeks on Indy. Props for the write-ups by the way, CG. He's a good writer and a good handicapper and you don't find that combo a lot. Even on a message board where dudes are supposed to write shit. Anyway, I didn't mean to nitpick with my comment and have benefited from his analysis. That +9 just gets me every time and I have to speak up when I see it.

 

[2daBank]

I don't know, man. But CG laid it down the past two weeks on Indy. Props for the write-ups by the way, CG. He's a good writer and a good handicapper and you don't find that combo a lot. Even on a message board where dudes are supposed to write shit. Anyway, I didn't mean to nitpick with my comment and have benefited from his analysis. That +9 just gets me every time and I have to speak up when I see it.

certainly no disrespect to him at all. im just curious on the thinking there. was gonna ask while i was talking bout the sd/ok gm but slipped my mind.. i actully think cle the right side for sure, no clue with the indy gm, dont even like messing with the thu gm. more just a question about why ml instead of spread as it seems strange to lay juice if worried about the 2 points.. nothing more, nothing less. wasnt trying to come off as dogging the plays or anything..

 

[The Capping Genius]

raiders off a bye and while a mess they have been for some time yet always manage to make this gm way more competitive than it should be.. dont get me wrong i love this chargers team but no way am i laying a td in a gm that is like the raiders superbowl, off a ass whipping in london, a coaching change, and a bye.. no thanx.

When we have a team that is out of control they become easily deflated. Raiders are just all screwed up. I liked them a lot in New England and even gave them a small chance to upset the Pats in my writeup that week, but that was ONLY because the Pats were in the same shape at that time. Another reason is that the Raiders lack high level talent at this point so bouncing back against a Charger team that can do little wrong, is nearly impossible. SD running game is still shaky but Rivers can do enough in road tilts to put up at least 28 on the Raiders, imo. More in the next paragraph.

I don't know, man. But CG laid it down the past two weeks on Indy. Props for the write-ups by the way, CG. He's a good writer and a good handicapper and you don't find that combo a lot. Even on a message board where dudes are supposed to write shit. Anyway, I didn't mean to nitpick with my comment and have benefited from his analysis. That +9 just gets me every time and I have to speak up when I see it.

NIne (9) is at least 2 scores and if you have a Romo slinging down field, he can cover. My only concern is the Dallas defense. - Not the Seahawks offense. The Seahawks play not to lose. SO far this season they have managed to score over 11 points only once in 4 games in the second half. That was against a totally lost Packer team who needed three weeks to right their ship this season and they also suck in domes.. Thanks for the compliment as well.

certainly no disrespect to him at all. im just curious on the thinking there. was gonna ask while i was talking bout the sd/ok gm but slipped my mind.. i actually think cle the right side for sure, no clue with the indy gm, dont even like messing with the thu gm. more just a question about why ml instead of spread as it seems strange to lay juice if worried about the 2 points.. nothing more, nothing less. wasnt trying to come off as dogging the plays or anything..

As a gambler I always look at juice as insignificant, in why I wager on a team. Points spreads are an issue that when capping a game that must be eliminated any time that a team could win on the last play or fail to cover on the last play. Teams on the rise are harder to cap because their recent history is dramatically different from the past. That means that finding any big advantage could be a little misleading in a run of 4 games like the Browns have had so far. After 6 or 8 games, the true colors start showing up. Home teams that offer small spreads are affordable because you can buy off the perceived HF advantage and simply win the bet without paying for it.
My best example for the younger cappers here or those who may not see my point is the Kansas City Chiefs from last season. KC was 9-0, but failed to cover 5 of 6 between weeks 7 thru 13. They won all 9 in aa row from turnovers. Most of the betting public were being sucked in because they had a streak going. I wasnt. I caught on early with that huge factor and faded them often.

The Texans are in that same position now as they are a team on the rise and I am leery to take then in many games yet . Playing on the Colts is a very low risk, as I actually have to get beat SU to lose my money. I have the better team at PK, so juice is much less important than winning. If Houston is really good enough to be ONLY a 3.5 pt dog, then so be it. But the odds makers haven't made them the favorite and until they do that against a solid team I won't play them. Look at who Houston has played. None have the talent of the Colts. Especially with Luck at QB. The Colts have a better team than last year despite two early season losses and I can say that because they beat the top 3 teams last year SU with lesser talent than this year. They are also a typical NFL team that could lose on any given Sunday regardless of who they play. See my write up for week 6 plays.

Thanks to all who commented. I appreciate the feedback and like to learn from others and what others think.

 

[2daBank]

you certainly dont have to convince me hou isnt as good as their record. i actually like their team but i have no use for any team lead by ryan fitzpatrick. i do think foster can cause problems for indy but not even sure how effective he will be having to play on thu with the wear and tear on that body. was much more curious on why the mls than the actual sides as i dont really disagree with either. will probably end up on cle and not touching thu night.. thanx for the answer. i cetainly wouldnt play oak atm but i just cant lay the td here, surely this is far from the 1st time oak was in such a state coming into this gm, yet somehow they always manage to make this gm close at least.. gl

 

[Tito]

Arian Foster has been fairly vocal about how much he hates the Thurs game. I'm sure its not good on him physically, but maybe mentally he doesn't quite bring the same effort bc of his dislike for it, who knows

 

[Marlo]

This is a very scary week. Lots and lots of road favs.

 

[austinhous]

From my viewpoint sitting here in central Texas, I don't see the Cowboys as disciplined enough to maintain their focus after winning four straight. This looks like one of those games where they don't even get off the plane. I especially would not back them flying all the way up there to Seattle. After four straight wins and with two home games versus the Giants and Redskins on deck? They don't have the discipline to maintain the winning mentality for that long. They are going to look weak in Seattle on Sunday. That stadium is all it's going to take and they'll be shook.

 

[aplous]

SURVIVOR thoughts?

Denver @ Jets
Cincy v. Carolina
Seattle v. Dallas

 

[austinhous]

Since he has been with the Broncos, Peyton is 6-0 SU on the road against a line of -7 or more with 19 TD and 3 INT (4-2 ATS and 1-5 O/U). He is 23-4 SU (.852) on the road when he is the favorite of -7 or more for his career.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

SURVIVOR thoughts?

Denver @ Jets
Cincy v. Carolina
Seattle v. Dallas

Out of those 3, I'd be most shocked if Denver lost.

 

[CASH]

aj green carted off in practice today..

 

[GWarner27]

2 best ML bets on the board. Browns, Colts.
Best ATS bet on the board Chargers -6.5 -120.
Best underdog bet on the board. Dallas +9.5 -125.
Best Dog ML Bet. Dallas +310

don't hate a play against OAK but I disagree with each of these and disagree even more with the juice your paying

 

[GWarner27]

already played chi/atl ov 53.5.. told myself before open it would take 56.5 to even give me pause.. i like gmen more than that total. it prob get over but phillys offense been a mess, dont think their streak of defensive and special teams scores continues here. their red zone offense been horribly inefficient while gmen have been playing strong defense down there, holding a falcons team who converts a higher rate than anyone to 33% on sunday.. i dont really expect philly to score more than 20-23 points. i do think nyg can get to 30 but 27 isnt out of the question.. gmen my fav side of the week tho so no interest in giving the total a ton of time..

the line tells me NYG or nothing

 

[YoungGun11]

The only thing is the Pats have beaten the Bills 20 out of the last 21 times, and 25 out of 27. It's been pretty much just utter domination of the Bills for over a decade, with only 3 of those last 20 wins coming by 3pts or less. It's almost mind boggling that one team could dominate another over such a long period of time in today's NFL.

According to Elbutre this trend would be completely irrelevant.

 

[GWarner27]

Arian Foster has been fairly vocal about how much he hates the Thurs game. I'm sure its not good on him physically, but maybe mentally he doesn't quite bring the same effort bc of his dislike for it, who knows

as a person who has the biggest variation on a line all season in this game and a Texans lean it makes me very nervous to try to grab the +3 while I see it when you consider how late the Foster inactives come and how unknown they are until almost the last moment

 

[GWarner27]

SURVIVOR thoughts?

Denver @ Jets
Cincy v. Carolina
Seattle v. Dallas

i'm down to the last two, don't want the short week with SEA and I don't like going against good offenses, but the HFA is pretty tough to consider and they were probably 3 TDs better than WAS if not for penalties/conservative play-calling in the 2H. On the other side the CAR defense worries me as a tight game in survivor freaks me out and good defenses/low-scoring games are the most likely places for this to happen, but after getting blown the F out on SNF i gotta think they come to play. Trusting Dalton is terrifying, but at this point the pretty-faced teams have already been used

 

[D-Woww]

Gw why the hell wouldnt u like denver before those 2? Or do u mean u used denver already?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I'm surprised to see money come in on Detroit. It looks like Calvin probably won't play. Bell is a ? with concussion and Bush was injured last game. Tough to support that offense right now. Bridgewater likely returns for Minnesota. I'm not sure which side is right, but I sure wouldn't be running to the window betting the Lions on the road this week.

 

[GWarner27]

Gw why the hell wouldnt u like denver before those 2? Or do u mean u used denver already?

yeah used 'em vs KC

 

[The Capping Genius]

don't hate a play against OAK but I disagree with each of these and disagree even more with the juice your paying

For me, Juice is something that falsifies value for and against a bettors style. Juice to me, is something that should never be considered in winning. I dont consider a 5 cent line is a better bet than a 10 cent line. The team still had to win. It may be cheaper but a 15 cent line wont take me off the game and it wont bring me to it. .

It may play a part when losing as a cost of doing business, but capping is something that should show whether its worth the price or not, regardless of how much or what side.

It is smarter to win when buying a soft money line, than to lose the bet because the team won but failed to cover. Mostly this applies to a players own belief in gambling, but I never lost a game because of price, I lost because the team lost the bet.

One more point I have is this. You like a game and start looking for a better price.. right? At what price does the potential of the game winning, change because of juice? (not to the point spread). Is there an actual proven factor that changes how well your team will play because of the price? Or is it simply a gauge to see who will bet what side?

My point really has nothing to do with your beliefs or prices and so forth. I know you do well with how you do things so its not for me to say your are wrong. We simply have two different styles. In mine - the capping decides who will cover - not the price of it.

Thank you for your opinion.

GL this week.

 

[GWarner27]

of course it's always nice to win, but a lot of people smarter than me have demonstrated with math how losing Dallas -3 wager because the Cowboys win by 1 as opposed to winning with a ML wager is often a better strategy than requiring yourself to win 55% of the time compared to the normal 52.3% based on the juice you pay. Agreed that -120 does not mean you are more likely to win than -105, but I also realize that it'll take 6 bets to win back 5 losses at -120 juice, while at -105 i'm +0.75

This is especially important in price sports like MLB, but I think still it can be reasonably applied to ones where we focus on ATS. Curious your thoughts on the math behind it rather than the value/CODB angles as I understand those and of course different styles are acceptable

 

[The Capping Genius]

of course it's always nice to win, but a lot of people smarter than me have demonstrated with math how losing Dallas -3 wager because the Cowboys win by 1 as opposed to winning with a ML wager is often a better strategy than requiring yourself to win 55% of the time compared to the normal 52.3% based on the juice you pay. Agreed that -120 does not mean you are more likely to win than -105, but I also realize that it'll take 6 bets to win back 5 losses at -120 juice, while at -105 i'm +0.75

This is especially important in price sports like MLB, but I think still it can be reasonably applied to ones where we focus on ATS. Curious your thoughts on the math behind it rather than the value/CODB angles as I understand those and of course different styles are acceptable

I dont know that math models are a good reason for making a winning play per say. To me that is mostly mumbo-jumbo when people smarter than most, start using that logic. No offense to those who follow. but again, the win can never be second to price.
For the sake od argument of styles Im not a fan of price as I said earlier.

Dallas ML and winning by 1 point is massively better than -3 and losing. I dont know why you used -120 as an example to win back 5 losses by winning 6 bets. Thats not clear to me.

Why would you only have -120 lines? If you lose a ML bet @145. with a team lined at 2.5. the loss is -145. If you win there is no juice. You are +100 per say. Now if you bet the -2.5 it was normally -110. Dallas wins by 1 and you are now -110.
To lose either bet you still have to win more than one game to make a pprofit right? The next two plays pay +200. Either way the win percentage needed is 2 out of 3 to make money. To me its easier to win a PK game than it is a game -2.5.
On the other side I would rather have +2.5 and the dog instead of a dog ML lose by one point.

Look at the lines posted above and see how many variable ML's there are on teams with the same point spread. Its a game by the book and the flow of the bettors that are sucked in to lines that stay at 2.5 and prices that vary off the others depending who is playing who? No logic in the ML moving when the spread is identical.

You have your choice on
New England -3 @ -115 or the ML @ 165
Ravens -3 @ -130 or ML @ 185
San Fran -3 @ -125 or the ML @ 175.

This is nuts, the bettors are still laying 3 in every game or paying different juice for the same 3 points removed for a ML play. To me its just a way to force the mindset of the gambler into think about price. The chance for all three teams is the same. Its 3 points for all regardless of prices.

Thats all for me. Too much time on this is simply for debating the logic of prices. I would not change by bet on any of the three examples because of prices. I either think laying three is easier to cover than winning SU or I dont , in any given match up.

Thanks for the feedback.

 

[2daBank]

I'm surprised to see money come in on Detroit. It looks like Calvin probably won't play. Bell is a ? with concussion and Bush was injured last game. Tough to support that offense right now. Bridgewater likely returns for Minnesota. I'm not sure which side is right, but I sure wouldn't be running to the window betting the Lions on the road this week.

sounds like good chance bell gonna make it back but i agree. havnt really been high on det anyway and never am on the road.. plus viks coming off the thu night spanking which has spring boarded several teams to better success..

 

[emkee]

Deep thread.

-2.5 to -3 faves are 5-13 ATS (6-12 SU) on the season (1-5 ATS and SU on the road, 4-8 ATS 5-7 SU at home).

Last season...

-2.5 to -3 faves were 36-25 SU (27-31-3 ATS)

Since 2007...

-2.5 to -3 faves are 209-182 SU (162-205-24 ATS)

 

[Streakin]

So its dangerous to be at niners games now? Hispanic violence. Or is this media bias?

 

[GWarner27]

Dallas ML and winning by 1 point is massively better than -3 and losing. I dont know why you used -120 as an example to win back 5 losses by winning 6 bets. Thats not clear to me.

Why would you only have -120 lines? If you lose a ML bet @145. with a team lined at 2.5. the loss is -145. If you win there is no juice. You are +100 per say. Now if you bet the -2.5 it was normally -110. Dallas wins by 1 and you are now -110.
To lose either bet you still have to win more than one game to make a pprofit right? The next two plays pay +200. Either way the win percentage needed is 2 out of 3 to make money. To me its easier to win a PK game than it is a game -2.5.
On the other side I would rather have +2.5 and the dog instead of a dog ML lose by one point.

-i'm talking over a season if you play -120 lines often losing 5 of them you'd have to win 6 of them to break even compared to losing 5 at -105 winning 6 at -105 would leave you +0.75u

-obviously I'd rather win a bet, but I realize I'm going to lose some so when I do I want the least amount of damage to my bankroll possible and over the long-term buying points is not an intelligent strategy due to the extra juice that comes along with it

Ultimately it's a mistake to not consider the price, but if you've had success weighing the line much more heavily than the price good for you

 

[wizardofodd]

any guesses on the Det @ Minn line. Factor Calvin out.

Minn-3?

 

[YoungGun11]

any guesses on the Det @ Minn line. Factor Calvin out.

Minn-3?

Detroit opened up -2.5.

I can tell you with certainty that Teddy Bridgewater will start, and Starting MLB Chad Greenway WILL NOT PLAY for the Vikes. Same source I used last week in stating Christian duckthrower would start.

 

[wizardofodd]

Detroit opened up -2.5.

I can tell you with certainty that Teddy Bridgewater will start, and Starting MLB Chad Greenway WILL NOT PLAY for the Vikes. Same source I used last week in stating Christian duckthrower would start.

If Teddy plays, and they are dogs, I have to play Minnesota ML. Det without Calvin is huge, hes more important than Stafford IMO