Week 6 Discussion Thread

W6 thoughts/leans...

UK +21/under 48' - UK always seems to play UGA tough (or UGA plays down to them) and the games are generally low-scoring eyeball-melting affairs (13-12, 51-13, 16-6, 30-13, 14-3, 21-0). Passed on +21 earlier hoping for better, kinda wishing I'd taken it but pretty sure it will come back. All that said, I liked it a lot better when UGA wasn't coming off the Bama loss.

Clemson/UNC under 46/1H under 23 or Clemson TT under 30' - Not sure I have the stomach for the Heels even at +14. Do expect Belichick to come up with some sort of defensive voodoo and clock management gameplan, settle for all sorts of FGs and punts and make this score less ugly. 24-12, maybe 15.

Michigan -16' - Fickell retirement game?

Maryland +6'/ML - Hoping for 7. Rough spot for UW traveling east off OSU (though at least it's 330 not noon)

Florida +7/1H under 21/Horns TT under 24' - rock fight (UT -0.01 EPA/rush, 0.04 EPA/pass; UF 0.03 and -0.18 respectively). Big concern with under is turnovers leading to easy points.

Houston +12 - These teams are about 12 points apart in PRs if you look at some consensus numbers. Houston HFA isn't amazing but it's something. Also, Texas Tech has looked great, shines in a number of analytics metrics and it sort of a darling right now so I think you're paying a premium to back TT, if it gets to 13+ I think I'll grab some Houston
 
I'm hearing someone dropped a buttload on the texas/florida over at circa. seems their new line is 46.5 🤷‍♀️ just word of mouth this guy doesn't b.s.
 
austinhous said:
I'm hearing someone dropped a buttload on the texas/florida over at circa. seems their new line is 46.5 🤷‍♀️ just word of mouth this guy doesn't b.s.
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Crazy that Action shows the total opened at 53.5! I'm still showing 41.5 at several books.

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twinkie13 said:
UGA losing kills the bet for me
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Not only that it fucked me up last week 🤣 I’m crazy tempted to play ya’lll rb McGowan over again, even vs Uga d, think it almost a given he will see 15+ carries pretty much every week so a number in the 50s not crazy at all, if he can just stay around 4 a carry he cashes.
 
twinkie13 said:
I like so many dogs 🐕 🐶 this week it’s scary 😱.
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Gotta love cal again right? Freaking duke as road favs again? I gotta get my money back for trusting cuse backup qb, lol. Still don’t think Duke is all that great despite looking good last week. Now they go across the country and play a team I always love as a dog! If Duke plays a clean game here I be shocked.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
W6 thoughts/leans...

UK +21/under 48' - UK always seems to play UGA tough (or UGA plays down to them) and the games are generally low-scoring eyeball-melting affairs (13-12, 51-13, 16-6, 30-13, 14-3, 21-0). Passed on +21 earlier hoping for better, kinda wishing I'd taken it but pretty sure it will come back. All that said, I liked it a lot better when UGA wasn't coming off the Bama loss.

Clemson/UNC under 46/1H under 23 or Clemson TT under 30' - Not sure I have the stomach for the Heels even at +14. Do expect Belichick to come up with some sort of defensive voodoo and clock management gameplan, settle for all sorts of FGs and punts and make this score less ugly. 24-12, maybe 15.

Michigan -16' - Fickell retirement game?

Maryland +6'/ML - Hoping for 7. Rough spot for UW traveling east off OSU (though at least it's 330 not noon)

Florida +7/1H under 21/Horns TT under 24' - rock fight (UT -0.01 EPA/rush, 0.04 EPA/pass; UF 0.03 and -0.18 respectively). Big concern with under is turnovers leading to easy points.

Houston +12 - These teams are about 12 points apart in PRs if you look at some consensus numbers. Houston HFA isn't amazing but it's something. Also, Texas Tech has looked great, shines in a number of analytics metrics and it sort of a darling right now so I think you're paying a premium to back TT, if it gets to 13+ I think I'll grab some Houston
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Love the idea of Clemson under, I dunno how the hell they have any business laying 2 tds at this point but I agree it incredibly tough to trust unc. Hopefully bill can come up with some kinda good defensive plan but really it just more a fade of Klubnick and the Clemson offense.

I’m scared to get in Texas tech way. had my under getting little scared as they ran it up in Utah in 4th (not too bad) Think my belief the tech d is really good was confirmed. I’d prob think more bout under in some fashion if I thought Houston could slow the offense down.
 
KJ said:
Haha there are only 68 P4 QBs so they're ranked pretty low but you may be on to something if it included the G5
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🤣 gotcha. Didn’t even realize the number, i just know there like 135ish teams I be looking at. I guess the 50s are fair if only 64 ranked, but I think the preseason hype and how awful they been should count against them more!! I’m sure they’re g5 qbs playing better than either these bums, probably nussmeier also! Seems like these dudes gotta be costing themselves a bunch of money!
 
Frank Costanza said:
Connelly ranks all Power 4 QB one month into the season. Of 68 not sure why he has Allar so high:

1 - Maiava
2 - Pavia
3 - Chambliss
41 - Manning
54 - Klubnik
55 - Allar

www.espn.com

Ranking all 68 Power 4 QBs: A surprise No. 1, where's Arch Manning and more

What have we learned about the signal-callers so far? Here's where Arch Manning, Beau Pribula and others stand.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
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I’m drinking the Dante Moore kool aid. I know psu isn’t as good as last year but he’s looked really poised and seems to have put the talent all together
 
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