Week #5

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Happy to be out of Sept and into October, at least by next Saturday. ;) First couple weeks of Sept were rough, especially the week two bloodbath. Third week was .500 but finally in the black, then went 10-10 in the fourth week juicing out 45 bucks. (Lost more of the smaller, action plays then the regular ones.) Another crazy fucking day though!!! There was a lot of good on my card this week (Ohio St, Wake, Utah, Wazzou, Kansas St, Oregon St), and there was just as much bad on the other side of the ledger (Michigan, Texas, Stanford, Toledo, Syracuse). I guess after week two, going 18-18 over the next two weeks isn't the worst thing...just a bit frustrating to not be moving forward with quite a bit more progress.

Anyhow, just getting this set up and ready to go for the opening lines tomorrow. I'll have to bail to baseball around 1:30pm my time, so hopefully they'll be out early on Sunday. Very interested to see how they come out, as there's already some interesting LV openers. I'll copy my week five look ahead posts below, but took a glance and here are a few of the LV openers of note (or that caught my eye).

Alabama -19 (a bit high imo)
Messy -1.5
Ole Miss -4
Auburn -1.5 (lol, and already being corrected it seems)
Michigan -4
Mich St -4.5 (another lol, and also being corrected it seems)
Clemson -13 (a bit too much imo)
FSU -2
Oklahoma -3.5
Baylor -1
Iowa St -3.5
Utah -11.5
Washington -2.5
Oregon -13

These will be changed (some by a lot) by the time we see them tomorrow. Maybe those that use FanDuel can give us a warning on the movement. I don't use it, but it seems like they have some lines available already...and some of the weirder openers are being fixed/corrected at place like that. For example, LSU is now the favorite in that Aubbie game. In any case, it's interesting to see how the lines come out and how they move.

On to Week #5 and October :tiphat:
 
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(from last week's thread, using numbers that are now outdated by week four's results)

alright, time for the Week #5 look ahead. not all the games, but some that i've picked out. first week of october! part one (13 games)...

Bama @ Arkansas
Bama off Vandy, with A&M on deck. Hogs off A&M, with Messy on deck. Tide has won L15 in series. LY 42-35 was closest in a while. With this weeks' numbers, I make the Hogs a 13 pt home dog. Prolly too much.

A&M @ Messy
A&M off Hogs, with Bama on deck. Messy off BG, with Hogs next. 8 of L10 in series as SEC have been decided by 10+ pts. Not sure how that happens with these offenses, lol. As of today, I make Messy a 3 pt fav at home.

Kentucky @ Ole Miss
Cats off NIU, with Scary on deck. Ole Miss off Tulsa, with Vandy next. Not much recent history, but L2 games were decided by 1 & 3 pts...both at Tucky, but won by Ole Miss. Make Ole Miss a 6 pt fav by today's numbers. Their homecoming.

LSU @ Auburn
LSU off NM, with Tenny next. Aubbie off Mizzou, with Georgia on deck. Home team is 18-4 SU, 14-7-1 ATS. 12 of L18 decided by 7 pts or less. Dog 6 straight covers in series, and 4 of L5 have been outright upsets. Make Aubbie a 6 pt hm dog as of today.

Rutgers @ Ohio St
RU off Iowa, with Nebby next. tOSU off Wisky, with MSU on deck. Buckeyes 8-0 SU by ave of 42.5 ppg, yet 6-2 ATS. RU has covered the L2 as huge dogs. Anyhow, i make Ohio St a 28 pt fav right now.

Michigan @ Iowa
UM off Maryland, with Indiana next. Iowa of Rutgers, with Illinois on deck. UM 6-7 SU, 7-5-1 ATS since '02...also 4-1 ATS L5. UM destroyed Iowa in the B10 title game LY. Make Iowa a 10 pt home dog in this one, again at today's numbers.

Mich St @ Maryland
MSU off Minny, with Ohio St on deck. Maryland off Michigan, with Purdue next. Spartans have won 4 straight, but 2-2 ATS. Home team 3-1 SU, but 1-3 ATS. I've got this as a pick em as of today.

Illinois @ Wisky
Illy off FCS, with Iowa next. Wisky off Ohio St, with NW on deck. Home team is 4-2, 5-1 ATS. Illy is 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in Madison. I make Wisky an 11.5 pt fav here.

Purdue @ Minny
Purdue off FAU, with Maryland next. Minny off MSU, with a bye next. Homecoming for them too. Minny 8-1 SU/6-3 ATS...and won/covered L4 straight. I make Minny a 6 pt fav as of today.

NCST @ Clemson
NCST off UConn, with FSU on deck. Clemson off WF, with BC next. Tigers had won 8 straight in series until LYs double OT loss. Tigers 4-7 ATS vs NCST. I make Clemson a 9 pt fav as of today, but hope it'll be much less. Tbh, I think Clemson is looking ahead to this game. Love NCST, but if there's value, i'm already leaning towards Clemson in this one...after backing Wake against them this week.

Wake @ FSU
WF off Clemson, with Army on deck. FSU off BC, with NCST next. WF won L2 after losing the 7 before that. Visitor lost 4 of L5 in series, which is good for the Noles homecoming. L7 have also gone under. I make FSU a 7 pt fav as of today.

VT @ UNC
VT off WVU, with Pitt next. UNC off ND, with Miami on deck. UNC lost 5 of L6. VT not good, but it's a sandwich spot for the Heels. Visitor in series is 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS. Also UNC has also won L4 conf home openers. Make the Heels an 8 pt fav as of today, and that's the side I'm leaning towards.

Virginia @ Duke
UVA's offense is a mess, with o-line issues, but they've won the L7 SU/ATS in series. I make Duke a 1 pt fav at home as of today.
 
(also from last week's thread)

part two of the Week #5 look ahead (also 13 games)...

Oklahoma @ TCU
Okie off KSt, with Texas on deck. TCU off SMU, with Kansas next. OU is 6-1 ATS since '16 vs TCU. Home team is 3-7 ATS. I make TCU a 6 pt hm dog as of today, but I could see one of those 4.5 or 5.5 lines too.

Okie Lite @ Baylor
Cowboys off a bye, with TT next. Bears off Iowa St, with a bye next. Baylor's won 6 of L9, and is 4-1 ATS L5 at home in series. They split last year. I make Baylor a 2.5 pt fav at home as of today. Might be leaning Cowboys already though.

Texas Tech @ Kansas St
TT off Texas, with Okie Lite on deck. KSt off Oklahoma, with Iowa St next. KSt is 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in series since '11. Under also 3-1 in L4. As of today, I make KSt a 2 pt fav at home.

Iowa St @ Kansas
ISU off Baylor, with KSt next. Kansas off Duke, with TCU on deck. ISU won 11 of L12 in series, covering 5 of L7. 7 straight KU Ls by ave of 28 pts. Yet by today's numbers, I make KU a 3 pt home dog.

Oregon St @ Utah
Beavs off USC, with Stanford next. Utes off ASU, with UCLA on deck. Utes won 5 of L6, but 2-4 ATS. They lost LY at OSU. Visitor in series is 4 of L7, 5-2 ATS. I make Utah a 13 pt fav at home as of today.

ASU @ USC
ASU off Utah, with UW next. USC off OSU, with Wazzou on deck. Home team has lost 3 of L5 in series, going 1-4 ATS...but we'll see where the Devils are at after all this extraneous stuff. Trojans 17 of L22, but 11-10-1 ATS. As of today, I make USC a 14 pt fav.

Washington @ UCLA
UW off Stanford, with ASU on deck. UCLA off Colorado, with Utah next. Bruins 11 of L15 in series, 10-5 ATS...including 8 of L9 at home, 7-2 ATS. As of today, I make UCLA a 2.5 pt home dog. Very interested in this game.

Stanford @ Oregon
Tree off UW, with Beavs on deck. Ducks off Wazzou, with Zona next. Ducks have way more talent, but have lost 4 of L6 SU and ATS in series. Nevertheless, as of today, I make Oregon a 16 pt fav here.

Cal @ Wash St
Cal off Arizona, with a bye next. Wazzou off Oregon, with USC next. Talk about a sandwich. Furthermore, Cal has won 12 of L16 in series, including 5-2 SU/ATS in Pullman. Home team has also won 5 of L6, but is 3-3 ATS. I make Wash St a 4 pt fav as of today.

Cincy @ Tulsa
Cincy off Indiana, with USF next. Tulsa off Ole Miss, with Navy on deck. Cincy has won 8 of L9 in series, but are 4-5 ATS. Tulsa has L3 ATS as well. As of today, I make Tulsa a 12.5 pt home dog.

SMU @ UCF
SMU off TCU, with a bye next. UCF off GT, with a bye next as well. Home team is 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS in series. SMU broke a 5 game streak LY going off for 541 yards. I make UCF a 2 pt fav at home though, as of today.

ULM @ Arky St
Mentioning this one not because it's their homecoming, but because Arky St has won and covered the L12 in this series. Gotta keep that streak alive, right? Lucky 13, lol. I make them a 14 pt home fav as of today, so if accurate as of next week's numbers, it'll be a challenge.

CMU @ Toledo
They won't want to leave beautiful San Diego, but it's the Rocket's homecoming too. Home team in series has won 4 straight, and 3-1 ATS. Toledo 10 of L12, 9-3 ATS vs CMU, including 6-1 L7 at home ATS. Make them a 7 pt hm fav as of today.

Whew...that's about my limit for typing shit out. I didn't proofread, but who cares. Just some fun shit to look forward to the following week's slate of games, or at least the ones that stand out to me at first glance. Remember, these numbers i'm giving to the games are based upon my composite PR#s before the Week #4 games have taken place.
 
last thing for tonight, then i'll be back tomorrow if the lines come out before i leave for the afternoon.

i'm going to tread a bit more softly with the openers this week. i went 10-10 in week four...but within that, i went 2-5 on the games where i jumped on early lines last sunday, which is obviously ass backwards. went 8-8 in week three, but 4-1 on the games where i jumped on the early lines that week. both weeks finished at the mendoza line. however playing the openers went from being a positive to a huge negative, primarily because most of the openers i play are on favorites...then the dogs come later in the week (with better line value). anyhow, just found that informative. it paid to be early when the favs hit, like last week, and it certainly didn't when the dogs came barking like they did this week.

other than that, this portal shit has sure made everything way more interesting. :popcorn:
 
ok, i'm outta here. off to baseball game, then back tonight.
these lines are pretty fuckin tight. i was super close with my last week's #s on a ton of them.

there's a lot that i like, which can be gleaned from previous posts...but no reason to play them now. will hope for line movement in my favor.

happy hunting :tiphat:
 
BYU (-24) for 1
Georgia (-27.5) for 1
Cal (+4.5) for 1

lots more i'm waiting on, hoping for better numbers. back from baseball, but gotta watch the rest of this Yankee game. might have a rain delay though.
 
As of Sunday night...


BYU (-24) for 1
Washington (-2.5) for 1

California (+4.5) for 1
Georgia (-27.5) for 1
Pittsburgh (-20) for 1
Wake Forest/Florida St under 66 for 1


Quick little bit on each of the plays.

BYU was worn down/tired at Oregon, but they've had time to recover now. I was on them vs Baylor, as well as when the Ducks took care of them. Still high on this team, and Utah St has been horrible this year. It's a nice tune up for the Cougars to prepare for Notre Dame in Las Vegas the following week. BYU's defense is stout, and they should be able to name the score here at home. I know the history of this series, but those were far different Aggies teams.

UCLA has done well in this series, and have taken 8 of the L9 at home (7-2 ATS) vs the Huskies. So why did I go with my gut (instead of my mind) and take Washington on the road with a trap-like line? Few reasons. UCLA has played nobody yet in 4 games. Yet I watched South Bama handle them the other week, deserving the outright upset. (Still think that coaching decision/gamble is the reason they didn't.) Nevertheless, as much as I root for the Bruins, I am not impressed...or happy with what I've seen of them. Washington may have had 4 relatively easy games too, but in consecutive weeks they completely outclassed both Michigan State and Stanford. I'm not sure how much of that was because of MSU and Stanford deficiencies, and how much of that was that UW is better than we gave them credit for...but obviously it's some of both. Bottom line, the Huskies are on their first road game...but I trust what I've seen from them dominating MSU and Stanford way more than what I've seen from UCLA dominating Colorado...let alone getting pushed around by USA. Bruins got killed last year in the home game following their 1st road game. They also have Utah on deck, who will absolutely push them around. With ASU on deck for UW, this is turning out to be a softer spot in their schedule then anticipated. Having been beaten by them twice already in my plays, I've been super impressed by Penix and surprisingly impressed by some of their defense. Anyhow, I'm jumping around with thoughts here late at night. This is their first road game, and the line definitely looks like a trap. That said, 2.5 pts is exactly where my numbers put this line last week so it's not much of a surprise. Bottom line, I'm backing the better (more proven) team to date...and it's not like my Bruins have much HFA. There will be a crowd on a Friday night, but attendance at the other games has been sparse to say the least.

Wrote this elsewhere, but Wazzou is in the middle of an Oregon/USC sandwich. They just shot their load in a helluva exciting game against the Ducks, and have no doubt that they'll give the Trojans some issues next week. This Cougar team is exciting and improving. It's just not a good spot for them here. Bears have a decent defense too, and have some great history/numbers in this series. Won't type it (trends) out again, but it's all listed in post #3. Should be a tight, FG game...and I'm hoping it will lead to even more value when Wazzou pays USC a visit the following week (as the Trojans will be looking ahead to Utah).

Georgia doesn't have a tough game until that 4 game stretch between 10/29 and 11/19. There isn't a loss on their schedule, and they just had their lackadaisical performance against Kent St. I've got this game no different than their trip to South Carolina where I was on them as well. Their defense will shut Missouri down, and their offense will name the score. Complete domination, taking care of business.

Pitt is also in the easy part of their schedule, and won by 31 LY at GT. Like LY, the Jackets just aren't a very good football team. They're off a bad loss at UCF, and don't see anything changing. GT will be challenged to score, whereas with Slovis back, Pitt should have no problem offensively. This line should rise, so played it now before we see 21s. Only difference from LY is that GT will score less.

Played this WF/FSU under just in case it gets hit tomorrow (or soon). I like a side in this one too, but waiting on line movement. This series plays to the unders though, as the L7 have shown. We all have the Wake/Clemson game in our head, which added value to this number. They've been an over team so far, so I get it. But coming off that emotional Clemson game, and with the Noles having NCST on deck, I think this on falls right into the history of their series.


Anyhow, much more to come. A lot to like this week, but no reason to rush. These first set of plays I think will all move against me, so that's why they're first up.

:tiphat:
 
Liking Georgia 1H and TT too……the two fumbles by same dude killed the 1H and 1Q plays last week imo……

Going back to Alabama 1q and 1H and the overs again..…2-1 playing them so far with lone lost on the road against Texas…..TT over should be play too….

What you think of the over with UCLA?

Was liking the over in WF game…..gotta rethink about this one now…..

USC 1H and TT I like…..after that no show at Oregonst……had Utes TT over 35 last week and utes suck running ball in red zone….gotta give props to those kids at Arizona st for not backing down

UNC seems like an over team to me….they can score and their defense is meh……liking over here

Ohiost……..taking them 1H or 1Q……had 3 team RR last week in 2H of Ohiost game…..can’t believe they gave up 75 yard td run…went 2-0-1…..TT I like too….

Oklahoma game I like over…..

Oregon st I like ……..think they 4-0 ATS this year…..

Gonna RR Georgia, Alabama, Ohiost TT weekly

Judge seems to be pressing or stressed out now with the media hype…….hope he gets 61 on the road….not chasing his HR prop anymore…..5 straight games without homer…….can’t believe someone is offering 2 million for his 61st homer……might as well buy ticket to game and hope to catch his 61st….could be millionaire
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
i'm a total sucker. going against myself, but my gut just won out over my mind (and the trends).

Washington (-2.5) for 1
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This game will be a lot of fun. I believe at some point it will get "wild". Hoping for a slowish start and then a reasonable LIVE total.
 
Well, GT coach fired.

Utah and Oklahoma both covered first game vs teams with a new coach.

Wholeheartedly agree on Jorja. That should be 49-14 or so.
 
not a good Monday morning. :(

Oklahoma, FSU, and Tulsa lines have all moved against me. Still like the Sooners and Noles at anything below a TD, but Tulsa value is gone. Was hoping that +12.5 to get to 13 or 14, not 9.
 
number2 said:
Liking Georgia 1H and TT too……the two fumbles by same dude killed the 1H and 1Q plays last week imo……

Going back to Alabama 1q and 1H and the overs again..…2-1 playing them so far with lone lost on the road against Texas…..TT over should be play too….

What you think of the over with UCLA?

Was liking the over in WF game…..gotta rethink about this one now…..

USC 1H and TT I like…..after that no show at Oregonst……had Utes TT over 35 last week and utes suck running ball in red zone….gotta give props to those kids at Arizona st for not backing down

UNC seems like an over team to me….they can score and their defense is meh……liking over here

Ohiost……..taking them 1H or 1Q……had 3 team RR last week in 2H of Ohiost game…..can’t believe they gave up 75 yard td run…went 2-0-1…..TT I like too….

Oklahoma game I like over…..

Oregon st I like ……..think they 4-0 ATS this year…..

Gonna RR Georgia, Alabama, Ohiost TT weekly

Judge seems to be pressing or stressed out now with the media hype…….hope he gets 61 on the road….not chasing his HR prop anymore…..5 straight games without homer…….can’t believe someone is offering 2 million for his 61st homer……might as well buy ticket to game and hope to catch his 61st….could be millionaire
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The Bruin over should hit, but that number is pretty close to where I've got it (68). I'd play that one live, and make sure that the Bruins will contribute their share. Otherwise, a UW TT could work too. BAR has the right idea here though. Wait and see, then play it live if it materializes.

Agree with everything you're saying/doing. Those plays should hit more often than not, and a 2-1 clip isn't bad.

Don't let me talk you off a WF over. I'm playing the trends, the situation, and a hunch with that under.

CarolinaBlue can direct you best with UNC, but agree there too. Utah has UCLA and USC coming up after the Beavs. Nolan is awful, but only see the Utes by 10-14 in this one. That said, there is revenge on the table...just not sure it means much to the Utes. They've got bigger fish to fry.
Really liked Oklahoma this week, but the over has potential too.


Judge has 2 games left to pass The Babe, otherwise he's only tied him at 60 in 154...even if he did it quicker. Definitely pressing. Not many people know what that kinda pressure is like. I certainly don't. Also have been wondering about the balls they've been using, but he hasn't really squared much up lately.
The juiced balls from a few years back are long gone. Guys like Gleyber aren't hitting 30+ any longer. Historically low batting, league wide...so yes, MLB messes with the balls. in a handful of years, they went from one (juiced) extreme to the other...but that's a different topic.
Judge will get it eventually, and wouldn't surprise me to see a 2 homer game. The BJays might walk him though...or pull a Wacha, and suddenly lose control when he's up...because they're trying to hold off the Rays. I get that...these games mean something to Toronto.
 
Heard they have special balls for Judge when he comes up to bat…..smh……

Hope he ties and breaks the record in same game….that’ll be cool if he have a 3 homer game…..


@B.A.R. is right……with these high totals, best to bet it live……hope they come out slow….
 
yeah, and there were a shit ton of high scoring games on tv last saturday. lots of points, so these totals get set high...and that gets tough at times when you need both sides to contribute.
 
jimmymo said:
Good grab on number, but this one really scares me as a UW guy.......our LB corps is a bit slow and undisciplined...think DTR could make us look really bad.....also hate the fact that we are going from home (fast turf) to road (grass).....can impact timing a bit......GL
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South Bama was disciplined, and made DTR look very average thru parts of that game. Maybe Chip's been holding a third of his offense in his pocket til now, but the Bruins have been very unimpressive so far. I'm a Bruin fan, and the line/history/etc concerns me too. Hope your UW d-line will be able to get a push like USA did, but this will be high scoring if you're right. UCLA will exploit that out of the back field.
 
Well the WF/FSU total didn't move/drop as I had hoped. LV opener is basically where it's still at today, minus a half pt. Guess most of the issues will be further north and east on Saturday. Wonder what games could/will get moved... Many of the (effected) totals have sure been adjusted since Sunday night though.

Slow going this week, overall. Tight/tough lines. Also hate when there's not much value to be found in the Pac-12 games. Ducks should be 14 pt favs, but I'm not touching Stanford. USC should be a 23 pt fav, but I'm not touching ASU. Zona should be a 17 pt fav, but I'm not touching Colorado. The favs are a bit too overpriced to take, including Utah. Nolan sucks, but Utah's got bigger games coming...plus the Beavs can put up a fight. That line would have to fall below 10 for me to get involved.

Anyhow, still have a couple additions for today.


Arkansas St (-7) for 1
Kentucky (+7) @ -115 for 1


Riding the streak with Arky St. They have won and covered the L12 in this series, so why stop now. Make this line 10.5 pts, so as soon as it dropped to 7 pts I bit.

Wildcats have had their issues, but I'm hoping a few get resolved with the return of Rodriguez this week. His presence will hopefully keep the defenses a bit more honest, and ease some of the pressure off their o-line and Levis. Rebels have some issues of their own. I make the line 6.5, so it's appropriate. Just see this as a FG game either way. Hell, these two haven't met often of late, but the last game was decided by a missed PAT. If Rodriguez's return is as significant as hoped, a ML play could be in order as well...but that would best be determined in live action.
 
Bachmeier, QB for Boise State, just entered the transfer portal and has played his last game for Boise. Says he's doing it to help his NFL chances. 2daBank will probably have something to say about that

So Boise State hosts S Diego St with a new OC (albeit one with plenty of game experience as Koetter has been an OC and head coach in both college and the NFL) and new QB. Can't recall that ever happening before, but we'll probably see it more often in this new era
 
TahoeLegend said:
Bachmeier, QB for Boise State, just entered the transfer portal and has played his last game for Boise. Says he's doing it to help his NFL chances. 2daBank will probably have something to say about that

So Boise State hosts S Diego St with a new OC (albeit one with plenty of game experience as Koetter has been an OC and head coach in both college and the NFL) and new QB. Can't recall that ever happening before, but we'll probably see it more often in this new era
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He looks lost out there first few games……maybe it’s the OC fault?
Had them in ML parlay last week and what a shitshow that was…….
 
TahoeLegend said:
Bachmeier, QB for Boise State, just entered the transfer portal and has played his last game for Boise. Says he's doing it to help his NFL chances. 2daBank will probably have something to say about that

So Boise State hosts S Diego St with a new OC (albeit one with plenty of game experience as Koetter has been an OC and head coach in both college and the NFL) and new QB. Can't recall that ever happening before, but we'll probably see it more often in this new era
Click to expand...
The fade-Bachmeier money train was gonna end at some point, but I did not expect it to end because of his future NFL prospects.
 
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As you know, I tend to lean more towards favs vs dogs but curious if you had any thoughts on the following…ULL CMU Kentucky Rice and Ohio. Thanks man!
 
TahoeLegend said:
Bachmeier, QB for Boise State, just entered the transfer portal and has played his last game for Boise. Says he's doing it to help his NFL chances. 2daBank will probably have something to say about that

So Boise State hosts S Diego St with a new OC (albeit one with plenty of game experience as Koetter has been an OC and head coach in both college and the NFL) and new QB. Can't recall that ever happening before, but we'll probably see it more often in this new era
Click to expand...

not sure what to make of Boise yet. they and sdst have been gawd awful offensively this year. can only go up, right?
 
carolinablue said:
As you know, I tend to lean more towards favs vs dogs but curious if you had any thoughts on the following…ULL CMU Kentucky Rice and Ohio. Thanks man!
Click to expand...

see post #25 for my thoughts on Kentucky. im betting that Rodriguez coming back turns that offense around.

don't really have many thoughts on the other games. will say that there is some decent line value on ULL. they've beaten them the L5 too, and should be a nice home dog. USA was impressive AF at UCLA, fwiw. first time i've watched a complete game of theirs, at least that i can recall.

you'll have a better handle on the MAC than I would. toledo pissed me off last week, as they should be better than that on offense.
 
lean FSU, but line too high
lean Oklahoma, but the same
lean Utah, but not at double digits
lean Okie Lite, if i can find +3
part of me wants to take a small flyer on Aubbie, just cuz the line is too high
leaning more and more towards Clemson too
still lean Tulsa, but wanted more points

couple additions though...


UTSA/MTSU over 62.5 for 1/2
Air Force (-14) for 1


a little action play for Friday nite points. need something to get me warmed up for the UW/UCLA game.

i'll absolutely be against SVP in this one, hehe. ;) looks like potential for thunder storms, but just too much line value and history to not take the bait. make AF a 20 pt fav at home, and surprised this line came down. navy's win over ecu, who they usually play very well against, is probably one of the main reasons. anyhow, as BA posted in his thread, the Falcons have totally dominated Navy the L2 years. I won't re-post the #s, but look at the L2 box scores. Home team is 8-1SU/7-2ATS in series, and one of those was AF winning 23-3 LY on the road. AF is off a cupcake, with a cupcake on deck...whereas this road trip to Colorado Springs is a weird little sandwich spot for them between conference games (ECU and Tulsa). B2B road trips for the Midshipmen too...same scheduling scenario as '18 and '20 trips to AF, which were also the 2nd of B2B roadies early in the season, and they were limited to 7 pts in each game. the side is public AF, but wth.
 
As of Tuesday night...


BYU (-24) for 1
Washington (-2.5) for 1
UTSA/MTSU over 62.5 for 1/2

California (+4.5) for 1
Georgia (-27.5) for 1
Pittsburgh (-20) for 1
Wake Forest/Florida St under 66 for 1
Arkansas St (-7) for 1
Kentucky (+7) @ -115 for 1
Air Force (-14) for 1


:tiphat:
 
number2 said:
Judge 61 finally!!!!!!!
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took a week, but that was pretty f'n cool to watch. said it before, but to me this is the record. only the third time in the history of the game, without the use of PEDs, and they were all Yankee RFers. hope he can hold on to the triple crown. should have a good time vs balty coming up. always does. ;)
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
lean FSU, but line too high
lean Oklahoma, but the same
lean Utah, but not at double digits
lean Okie Lite, if i can find +3
part of me wants to take a small flyer on Aubbie, just cuz the line is too high
leaning more and more towards Clemson too
still lean Tulsa, but wanted more points
Click to expand...

that Utah line is creeping down some
if the Oregon line creeps down too, i might bite

additional leans i'm looking at: Illinois, Iowa St, Kansas St, and Liberty

couple more additions though...


Virginia (+3) for 1/2
Clemson (-6) @ -120 for 1


might not be the best idea in this weather, but made UVA/Duke a pick em. at some point armstrong & co is gonna get somewhat back on track. if he/they can't do it against one of the worst d-lines/defenses in the ACC, then it just ain't happening for this offense. small action play though because of the slop. UVA has won L7 SU & ATS in series. Duke has lost 6 straight conf home openers, so why stop with either trend now.

in the end, i couldn't resist a play on the tigers. big time revenge game. love both defenses, despite what we saw last week...dislike both offenses/QBs, but especially Leary. anyhow, my thoughts on this matchup are posted in the Week 5 discussion thread. weather will be sloppy here as well. either of these teams can be beaten by a solid QB/passing game. neither team has that in this game, but clemson is the better squad overall...having watched NCST play both ECU and Texas Tech...and this is from someone who bet Wake Forest last week. anyhow, i hope i'm right because it would create better value the following week, where i'm already leaning hard towards NCST over FSU (another team I've been high on, and playing a lot). before LY, tigers had won 8 straight in the series. couldn't shake this lean, so i added it tonight.
 
looking ahead to Week #6... :)

A&M @ Alabama
TAMU off Messy, with a bye on deck. Bama off Ark, with Tenny on deck. Revenge game. Bama's L4 at hm vs A&M were blowouts. L4 have gone over too. I'm not on Bama in week five, but I will be here.

Arkansas @ Miss St
Hogs off Bama, with BYU next. Messy off A&M, with Kentucky on deck. Hogs have won L2, and have taken 2 of L3 in Starkville. Hm team 2-7 ATS in series.

Tenny @ LSU
Vols off a bye, with Bama on deck. LSU off Aubbie, with Florida next. LSU has won L5 meetings, but haven't met since '17. Already have a definite lean here, but since I'll be praying for a good line, I'm not gonna jinx it now.

Auburn @ Georgia
Aubbie off LSU, with Ole Miss next. UGA off Mizzou, with Vandy on deck. UGA has won 5 straight, which won't stop. Also won & covered L7 at hm vs Tigers. This will be a beat down, but also the under is 12-3 since '08. In other words, UGA will be pitching a shutout.

S Carolina @ Kentucky
Cocks off FCS, with a bye next. Cats off Ole Miss, with Messy next...as Mississippi sandwich. UK has won 7 of L8, and covered 8 of L9. 6 of L7 played under too. I should be on them B2B weeks.

Ohio St @ Mich St
tOSU off Rutgers, with a bye next. Sparty off Maryland, with Wisky on deck. Ohio St is 15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS, including 6 straight wins and 5 straight covers. Will be on the Buckeyes so long as the line isn't ridiculous.

Michigan @ Indiana
UM off Iowa, with Penn St on deck. Indy off Nebby, with Maryland next. Michigan is 4-7 ATS since '09 in series, and the hm team has won 7 of L11 SU/ATS. Indiana has only won twice since I've been alive though, '87 and '20.

Purdue at Maryland
Purdue off Maryland, with Nebby on deck. Terps off MSU, with Indiana next. Rd team 0-2 SU/ATS. Terps 1-6 SU, 0-7 ATS vs B10 West teams.

Iowa @ Illinois
Iowa off UM, with a bye next. Illy off Wisky, with Minny next. Iowa's won 13 of L14 in series, including 8 straight (but 5-3 ATS in those). Hm team is 4-4 SU, but only 1-7 ATS in L8 as well.

FSU @ NCST
Noles off WF, with Clemson on deck. Pack off Clemson, with Cuse on deck. NCST has won 4 of L5, and is 16-4-1 ATS in series. Hm team is 9-2-1 ATS as well. On the bad side, NCST is 1-6 ATS after Clemson. But if they come out of that game healthy/decent, FSU is 2-4 SU, and 0-6 ATS in Raleigh. I've played FSU a lot this year, and like the team...but as long as Leary doesn't shit the bed...and even though I'm on Clemson this week...I'm already leaning hard to backing NCST here. All comes down to whether I can stomach Leary and that offense, as well as a decent line.

Louisville @ Virginia
Ville off BC, with a bye next. UVA off Duke, also with a bye next. UL is 1-4 SU/ATS at Virginia. Hm team is 6-2 SU/ATS. And the under has hit the L6 straight. Homecoming, and UVA has taken the L2 between them. But can they start to get back on track?

UNC @ Miami
UNC off VT, with Duke on deck. Canes off a bye, with VT next. Canes have lost 3 straight to UNC. Dog is 13-5 ATS with 8 upsets. Hm team is 5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS. Also 4 straight overs in series, with the L2 coming in at 88 and 87 pts respectively. Considering the season to date, and it's square AF, but gotta look over right?

VaTech @ Pitt
VT off UNC, with Miami next. Pitt off GT, with a bye next. Another homecoming. Pitt is 13-2 ATS vs VT, and the L3 have been wins of 20+ pts. Hm team is 13-4 ATS in series too. Only way that stops here is if Pitt isn't focused during the soft part of their schedule.

Texas @ Oklahoma
Horns off WVU, with ISU next. Sooners off TCU, with Kansas on deck. Only once since '14 has the RRR not been decided by 8 pts or less. Horns have only won 3 times since '10, but are 7-3 ATS since '13 all as the dog.

Texas Tech @ Okie Lite
TT off KSt, with a bye next. Boys off Baylor, with TCU on deck. Okie Lite has won 11 of L13 SU, but are only 2-6 ATS in L8. Rd team is on a 9-3 ATS run.

Kansas St @ Iowa St
KSt off TT, with a bye next. ISU off Kansas, with Texas on deck. ISU has won 3 of L4, but lost 10 straight before that.

TCU @ Kansas
TCU off Oklahoma, with Oklahoma St on deck. An Okie sandwich, which doesn't sound good or appropriate. Kansas off ISU, with Sooners on deck. TCU 9-1 SU, but 3-7 ATS in series. Rd team is 4-6 ATS. Kansas has covered 7 of L10.

Utah @ UCLA
Utes off the Beavs, with Trojans on deck. Bruins off the Huskies, with a bye next. Utah has gone 9-2 ATS in L11, including 5 straight by an average of 27 ppg. Rd team is 1-3 SU & ATS though. The only thing going against Utah for me however is that they can't help but look ahead to the USC game. That game will determine the South, so gotta take that into consideration. Otherwise, the Bruins are simply outclassed.

Wash St @ USC
Wazzou off Cal, with Beavs on deck. SC off ASU, with Utah on deck. SC has won 12 of L14 in series, going 9-5 ATS. Hm team has won 3 of L4, and 2-2 ATS. Wazzou though is 3-1 L4 ATS at USC. And more importantly, SC will be looking ahead to Utah as well.

UW @ ASU
UW off UCLA, with Zona in deck. ASU off USC, with a bye next. ASU has won 12 of L14, going 13-1 ATS in the series. Huskies have lost 7 straight on the road to ASU. Before things went sideways at ASU, this was a horrible spot for Washington. Will that continue with these specific teams? Have to see how ASU keeps playing, but no way would I want to lay a ton of points on the road with that history.

Oregon @ Arizona
Ducks off Stanford, with a bye next. Zona off Colorado, with UW on deck. Hm team has won 6 of L7, going 5-2 ATS. Ducks have lost 2 straight SU & ATS in Tucson. Also, Ducks have won 9 of L12 in series, but 6-5-1 ATS.

Oregon St @ Stanford
Beavs off Utah, with Wazzou on deck. Tree off Ducks, with ND next. Beavers won LY for the first time since '09. Stanford has won 11 of L12 in series, including 5 straight at home (3-2 ATS).

USF @ Cincy
Hm team has won 7 of L10, 7-2-1 ATS. Cincy has won L4, but 0-3-1 ATS.

Houston @ Memphis
Cougs won LY ending a 5 game losing streak to Memphis. Memphis has won 5 of L6 in series SU & ATS.

Notre Dame @ BYU
Domers off a bye, with Stanford on deck. BYU off Utah St, with Arkansas on deck. ND has the trends, but these two haven't met since '13. First neutral site meeting, and it's in Las Vegas. Don't like having an SEC team on deck, but definitely leaning towards BYU (who I've backed multiple times TY).

Fresno St @ Boise St
L4 have gone under, with 38 pts on average. Fresno 2-5 SU vs Boise, but 5-2 ATS.

Wyoming @ New Mexico
Wyoming has only covered 2 of L9 meetings, and have been upset in the L2 games. L4 have also gone under.

UNLV @ SJST
San Jose is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in series. Hm team is 5-1 SU & ATS in L6.

Geo Southern @ Geo St
GSt has won 5 of L7, but in this rivalry the L4 wins all at 7 pts or less.

MTSU @ UAB
Hm team is 6-2 SU, 4-2 ATS. L4 meetings have been outright upsets, so play the dog.

WKU @ UTSA
UTSa beat them twice LY, 52-46 and 49-41. Conf title game rematch, and looks like another over to me.

Ball St @ CMU
Rd team has won and covered 5 straight in series. Ball St is 7-0 ATS in L7 at CMU. Ride or collide, as Hunt would say.

Kent St @ Miami Ohio
Hm team is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS...and 4 of L5 in series have been upsets, so another dog to play.

I'm running out of steam, lol...but just some more situational tidbits in preparation for the following week. I didn't bring these final two games up yet, because they're not really intriguing matchups...but fwiw, I'm already also leaning towards Florida over Missouri and Duke over GT...depending upon the lines/etc.

Anyhow, back to this week...the week at hand!
:tiphat:
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
took a week, but that was pretty f'n cool to watch. said it before, but to me this is the record. only the third time in the history of the game, without the use of PEDs, and they were all Yankee RFers. hope he can hold on to the triple crown. should have a good time vs balty coming up. always does. ;)
Click to expand...

Remember you said something about 1961 and then 61 years later Judge hit 61?

Roger Maris Jr was talking about how Maris wears #9…..judge wears 99 and that it was in his 9th day traveling with the Yankees that Judge hit #61…..crazy number alignments…..

You should play some win4 with

Mayza 58 and judge 99 or 6199

Judge has hit the most homers against the Orioles ( 18 ) last 2 years…..Guerrero Jr has 17

Wondering how much #62 is gonna worth now!!!!!

Good thing that #61 fell into BlueJay bullpen……
 
glad I wasn't around to watch that BYU game. took a glance at the box score, and was like how the hell did that happen. :(

anyways, made some more additions today...


Tulsa (+10) for 1/2
Liberty (-3.5) for 1/2
Iowa St (-3) for 1
Utah (-1.5) to Oregon (-8) to Kansas St (+1.5) for 1 to win 1


wasn't the line i wanted, but Tulsa crept back to +10 so a small action play. see the trends in post #3. they'll keep this close.

another small action play on Liberty, based on the assumption that salter and the two o-linemen will be returning to action.

Kansas is a great story, but siding with the defense in this one. line is tight, but see post #3 for the historical trends for ISU.

finally, a teaser. really liked all three teams, but their lines were just too high. Utah will not lose SU to a Beaver team that struggles to stop the run, and has Nolan as their QB. Stanford looked gawd awful last week, so Ducks gotta be able to win this home game by double digits right? And KSt is 10-1 SU vs the Red Raiders.


possible plays on Okie Lite and FSU might still be pending as well.
 
Updated as of Thursday night...


BYU (-24) for 1 L
Washington (-2.5) for 1
UTSA/MTSU over 62.5 for 1/2

California (+4.5) for 1
Georgia (-27.5) for 1
Pittsburgh (-20) for 1
Wake Forest/Florida St under 66 for 1
Arkansas St (-7) for 1
Kentucky (+7) @ -115 for 1
Air Force (-14) for 1
Virginia (+3) for 1/2
Clemson (-6) @ -120 for 1
Tulsa (+10) for 1/2
Liberty (-3.5) for 1/2
Iowa St (-3) for 1
Utah (-1.5) to Oregon (-8) to Kansas St (+1.5) for 1 to win 1


Is it October yet? ;)
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
looking ahead to Week #6... :)

A&M @ Alabama
TAMU off Messy, with a bye on deck. Bama off Ark, with Tenny on deck. Revenge game. Bama's L4 at hm vs A&M were blowouts. L4 have gone over too. I'm not on Bama in week five, but I will be here.

Arkansas @ Miss St
Hogs off Bama, with BYU next. Messy off A&M, with Kentucky on deck. Hogs have won L2, and have taken 2 of L3 in Starkville. Hm team 2-7 ATS in series.

Tenny @ LSU
Vols off a bye, with Bama on deck. LSU off Aubbie, with Florida next. LSU has won L5 meetings, but haven't met since '17. Already have a definite lean here, but since I'll be praying for a good line, I'm not gonna jinx it now.

Auburn @ Georgia
Aubbie off LSU, with Ole Miss next. UGA off Mizzou, with Vandy on deck. UGA has won 5 straight, which won't stop. Also won & covered L7 at hm vs Tigers. This will be a beat down, but also the under is 12-3 since '08. In other words, UGA will be pitching a shutout.

S Carolina @ Kentucky
Cocks off FCS, with a bye next. Cats off Ole Miss, with Messy next...as Mississippi sandwich. UK has won 7 of L8, and covered 8 of L9. 6 of L7 played under too. I should be on them B2B weeks.

Ohio St @ Mich St
tOSU off Rutgers, with a bye next. Sparty off Maryland, with Wisky on deck. Ohio St is 15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS, including 6 straight wins and 5 straight covers. Will be on the Buckeyes so long as the line isn't ridiculous.

Michigan @ Indiana
UM off Iowa, with Penn St on deck. Indy off Nebby, with Maryland next. Michigan is 4-7 ATS since '09 in series, and the hm team has won 7 of L11 SU/ATS. Indiana has only won twice since I've been alive though, '87 and '20.

Purdue at Maryland
Purdue off Maryland, with Nebby on deck. Terps off MSU, with Indiana next. Rd team 0-2 SU/ATS. Terps 1-6 SU, 0-7 ATS vs B10 West teams.

Iowa @ Illinois
Iowa off UM, with a bye next. Illy off Wisky, with Minny next. Iowa's won 13 of L14 in series, including 8 straight (but 5-3 ATS in those). Hm team is 4-4 SU, but only 1-7 ATS in L8 as well.

FSU @ NCST
Noles off WF, with Clemson on deck. Pack off Clemson, with Cuse on deck. NCST has won 4 of L5, and is 16-4-1 ATS in series. Hm team is 9-2-1 ATS as well. On the bad side, NCST is 1-6 ATS after Clemson. But if they come out of that game healthy/decent, FSU is 2-4 SU, and 0-6 ATS in Raleigh. I've played FSU a lot this year, and like the team...but as long as Leary doesn't shit the bed...and even though I'm on Clemson this week...I'm already leaning hard to backing NCST here. All comes down to whether I can stomach Leary and that offense, as well as a decent line.

Louisville @ Virginia
Ville off BC, with a bye next. UVA off Duke, also with a bye next. UL is 1-4 SU/ATS at Virginia. Hm team is 6-2 SU/ATS. And the under has hit the L6 straight. Homecoming, and UVA has taken the L2 between them. But can they start to get back on track?

UNC @ Miami
UNC off VT, with Duke on deck. Canes off a bye, with VT next. Canes have lost 3 straight to UNC. Dog is 13-5 ATS with 8 upsets. Hm team is 5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS. Also 4 straight overs in series, with the L2 coming in at 88 and 87 pts respectively. Considering the season to date, and it's square AF, but gotta look over right?

VaTech @ Pitt
VT off UNC, with Miami next. Pitt off GT, with a bye next. Another homecoming. Pitt is 13-2 ATS vs VT, and the L3 have been wins of 20+ pts. Hm team is 13-4 ATS in series too. Only way that stops here is if Pitt isn't focused during the soft part of their schedule.

Texas @ Oklahoma
Horns off WVU, with ISU next. Sooners off TCU, with Kansas on deck. Only once since '14 has the RRR not been decided by 8 pts or less. Horns have only won 3 times since '10, but are 7-3 ATS since '13 all as the dog.

Texas Tech @ Okie Lite
TT off KSt, with a bye next. Boys off Baylor, with TCU on deck. Okie Lite has won 11 of L13 SU, but are only 2-6 ATS in L8. Rd team is on a 9-3 ATS run.

Kansas St @ Iowa St
KSt off TT, with a bye next. ISU off Kansas, with Texas on deck. ISU has won 3 of L4, but lost 10 straight before that.

TCU @ Kansas
TCU off Oklahoma, with Oklahoma St on deck. An Okie sandwich, which doesn't sound good or appropriate. Kansas off ISU, with Sooners on deck. TCU 9-1 SU, but 3-7 ATS in series. Rd team is 4-6 ATS. Kansas has covered 7 of L10.

Utah @ UCLA
Utes off the Beavs, with Trojans on deck. Bruins off the Huskies, with a bye next. Utah has gone 9-2 ATS in L11, including 5 straight by an average of 27 ppg. Rd team is 1-3 SU & ATS though. The only thing going against Utah for me however is that they can't help but look ahead to the USC game. That game will determine the South, so gotta take that into consideration. Otherwise, the Bruins are simply outclassed.

Wash St @ USC
Wazzou off Cal, with Beavs on deck. SC off ASU, with Utah on deck. SC has won 12 of L14 in series, going 9-5 ATS. Hm team has won 3 of L4, and 2-2 ATS. Wazzou though is 3-1 L4 ATS at USC. And more importantly, SC will be looking ahead to Utah as well.

UW @ ASU
UW off UCLA, with Zona in deck. ASU off USC, with a bye next. ASU has won 12 of L14, going 13-1 ATS in the series. Huskies have lost 7 straight on the road to ASU. Before things went sideways at ASU, this was a horrible spot for Washington. Will that continue with these specific teams? Have to see how ASU keeps playing, but no way would I want to lay a ton of points on the road with that history.

Oregon @ Arizona
Ducks off Stanford, with a bye next. Zona off Colorado, with UW on deck. Hm team has won 6 of L7, going 5-2 ATS. Ducks have lost 2 straight SU & ATS in Tucson. Also, Ducks have won 9 of L12 in series, but 6-5-1 ATS.

Oregon St @ Stanford
Beavs off Utah, with Wazzou on deck. Tree off Ducks, with ND next. Beavers won LY for the first time since '09. Stanford has won 11 of L12 in series, including 5 straight at home (3-2 ATS).

USF @ Cincy
Hm team has won 7 of L10, 7-2-1 ATS. Cincy has won L4, but 0-3-1 ATS.

Houston @ Memphis
Cougs won LY ending a 5 game losing streak to Memphis. Memphis has won 5 of L6 in series SU & ATS.

Notre Dame @ BYU
Domers off a bye, with Stanford on deck. BYU off Utah St, with Arkansas on deck. ND has the trends, but these two haven't met since '13. First neutral site meeting, and it's in Las Vegas. Don't like having an SEC team on deck, but definitely leaning towards BYU (who I've backed multiple times TY).

Fresno St @ Boise St
L4 have gone under, with 38 pts on average. Fresno 2-5 SU vs Boise, but 5-2 ATS.

Wyoming @ New Mexico
Wyoming has only covered 2 of L9 meetings, and have been upset in the L2 games. L4 have also gone under.

UNLV @ SJST
San Jose is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in series. Hm team is 5-1 SU & ATS in L6.

Geo Southern @ Geo St
GSt has won 5 of L7, but in this rivalry the L4 wins all at 7 pts or less.

MTSU @ UAB
Hm team is 6-2 SU, 4-2 ATS. L4 meetings have been outright upsets, so play the dog.

WKU @ UTSA
UTSa beat them twice LY, 52-46 and 49-41. Conf title game rematch, and looks like another over to me.

Ball St @ CMU
Rd team has won and covered 5 straight in series. Ball St is 7-0 ATS in L7 at CMU. Ride or collide, as Hunt would say.

Kent St @ Miami Ohio
Hm team is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS...and 4 of L5 in series have been upsets, so another dog to play.

I'm running out of steam, lol...but just some more situational tidbits in preparation for the following week. I didn't bring these final two games up yet, because they're not really intriguing matchups...but fwiw, I'm already also leaning towards Florida over Missouri and Duke over GT...depending upon the lines/etc.

Anyhow, back to this week...the week at hand!
:tiphat:
Click to expand...
Here are a few early Week 6 thoughts from me…

Bama will be a play for me at anything under 20

Georgia at anything under 28

Ohio St at anything under 24

I like Kentucky over SC but don’t think I will get the line I want

UNC game over anything under 65 and TT over anything under 34

Pitt at anything under 20

WKU v UTSA over anything under 65
 
carolinablue said:
Here are a few early Week 6 thoughts from me…

Bama will be a play for me at anything under 20

Georgia at anything under 28

Ohio St at anything under 24

I like Kentucky over SC but don’t think I will get the line I want

UNC game over anything under 65 and TT over anything under 34

Pitt at anything under 20

WKU v UTSA over anything under 65
Click to expand...
100% in agreement

I’ll have to leave by 1:30 on Sunday again. Hoping I don’t miss out.
 
TahoeLegend said:
What are you thinking on the total in that game? I kind of like the over, but don't have any reasons
Click to expand...

From the first paragraph of post #20…

“The Bruin over should hit, but that number is pretty close to where I've got it (68). I'd play that one live, and make sure that the Bruins will contribute their share. Otherwise, a UW TT could work too. BAR has the right idea here though. Wait and see, then play it live if it materializes.”

If the Bruins are having success against the Huskies defense, add it live. The game should go down to the wire. Otherwise, just don’t see value there.
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
i'm a total sucker. going against myself, but my gut just won out over my mind (and the trends).

Washington (-2.5) for 1
Click to expand...

sorry about this one, guys. i knew it, and i knew it again on the bruin first drive that failed at the very end. i pulled the rip cord and bailed off UW after the safety, but wasn't around to post it, so just goes down as a miserable loss. after the bruins went up 9-7, knew i was right...and had seen everything that i needed to see.

sure makes next week more interesting...
 
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