Post your thoughts!
Davis Mills is a revelation?
Davis Mills is a revelation?
Henry’s pace will slow down a bit once the WR are healthy. without Julio, a less than 100% AJ, and even Westbrook out there are limited people to throw to. I take my chances handing to the king over throwing to Chester Rogers (although he’s been good), Reynolds (disappointment), Firkser etc.Niners could've won this week with some decent QB play. They did a great job slowing down Murray, as it took a phenomenal grab from DHop to give them the margin of victory. Shanny seems to be searching for something with this revolving door of running backs. No Kittle today didn't help either. Cards are clearly on top but not unbeatable.
Bengals will be in plenty of games as long as they keep Joe Cool healthy. But Taylor, damn, three runs with 1st down at the GB 41 and a chance to win? You keep the ball in the hands of your best player. Newsflash, its not Joe Mixon.
Crosby by all rights should be cut but at this point he's probably on Rodgers do not cut list.
Lions are always worth a look getting more than a score. Can't always play them, but they're worth a look.
Steez at +money were easy money in retrospect. I said that line was looking weird. They get another break next week with Geno coming to town. Broncos were shown to be a fraudulent 3-0 team by Baltimore, now they're 3-2. They are firmly mediocre. But lets not forget they took this one to the wire.
Tampa is just naming their score at home. Gonna take a strong D to make them work for a win.
Washington has QB issues and an incredibly underperforming D. They can be faded. Saints have good Jameis and bad Jameis. This week was good. Meaning we're one week closer to bad.
Looks like Sam Darnold 2020 returned. Bad loss for Carolina. CMac returning next week should help things.
Derrick Henry is on pace for about 480 carries, which is almost 70 more than anyone ever in one year. Tits may run off with the division and give him some breathers later in the year.
New England had no business winning a football game today. Mills finished with a QB rating of 141.7. I hope Dak can manage something similar.
The Raiders were the worst team to take the field today. They couldn't handle the Bears front without Hicks. Just a sad display.
Cleveland and Chargers are going to be a handful for anyone this year. So much talent on those teams, and the offensive execution was crazy good. They'll be fun to back in games.
Howboutdem Cowboys! The defense is forcing turnovers and the offense isn't giving up as many and its making all the difference. If they can stay healthy its going to be a fun year.
There isn't a QB worthy of the top pick in the next draft.How many close losses is Detroit going to have? Maybe the Lions want the top pick, so they procure the feeling that they can win games but lose all of them lol
Rattler certainly ain’t it. He’s gonna go from heisman candidate to being benched. Howell has a lot I like but not at 1, and corral too but yeah no one I’d draft top 10 even. Best available will be deshaun WatsonThere isn't a QB worthy of the top pick in the next draft.
I think Corral is going number one and I have a futures bet on it at 8-1 but I wouldn't pick him that high. Its funny but Rattler is still listed at 2-1 odds which is laughable.Rattler certainly ain’t it. He’s gonna go from heisman candidate to being benched. Howell has a lot I like but not at 1, and corral too but yeah no one I’d draft top 10 even. Best available will be deshaun Watson
Wouldn’t shock me. I think he def is first qb taken unless his level drops or he’s shit at the combineI think Corral is going number one and I have a futures bet on it at 8-1 but I wouldn't pick him that high. Its funny but Rattler is still listed at 2-1 odds which is laughable.
Tone of that game changes in first drive if that “roughing” call doesn’t get made imo but he’s also working with a barren roster. Give him time.Robert Saleh looks and acts the part but so far it appears that he can't coach at all. The Jets once again came out flat and allowed Ryan to do whatever he wanted all game long. Talk about deceiving scores they may have only lost by 7 but that game could have been closer to 30 if the Falcons weren't the biggest choking franchise in the league.
The problem w kc is they’ve made very little changes to fix their few flaws while teams around them have caught up. Maholmes can’t play d and when he isn’t great they can’t winWe keep waiting for the Chiefs to wake up but maybe they aren't going to. I would be very surprised if the Chargers don't win that division.
Terrible call no doubt but the defense was brutal all game long and the offense continues to do nothing in the first half every week.Tone of that game changes in first drive if that “roughing” call doesn’t get made imo but he’s also working with a barren roster. Give him time.
The Chiefs defense is terrible. We keep waiting for that team to get better but I have a feeling it isn't going to happen.The problem w kc is they’ve made very little changes to fix their few flaws while teams around them have caught up. Maholmes can’t play d and when he isn’t great they can’t win
Can’t fault them I’d have done it too. A lot of ppl missed on Herbert. Lot of ppl didn’t see him doing this.I want to applaud the Dolphins for drafting Tua over Herbert.
Best player by far in the draft will be the Oregon defensive linemanI think Corral is going number one and I have a futures bet on it at 8-1 but I wouldn't pick him that high. Its funny but Rattler is still listed at 2-1 odds which is laughable.
Great point. Week 1 is always full of false flags. Week 2 is about reversals. Weeks 3-5 teams show whether they might be trending or if they're stuck in up and down mediocrity. Now we have several keys to look at we didn't have at the start of the year: a) Injuries b) Identity c) MotivationNow that we head into that part of the season where long term injuries have forced second string guys into action, teams that are out of it have that realization sink in, I feel like some of these trends of who teams are may start to take hold. Meaning, look at the Jets. They're giving up some of the most sacks in the league, they're penalized more than nearly everybody in the league, and (surprise) their point differential sucks. In a situation like this, you almost have to play short favorites against them nearly blind because of all the extra opportunities their opponents are getting from them. Obviously there will be spots that push you off that, but you see what I'm getting at.
Great read. I will say about Arizona being real or not...if vikings kicker isn’t a loser they’d be 4-1...but if my grandma had a dik she’d be my grandpa. 5-0 is 5-0! They’re bad against the run and average against pass but when your pass rush is that nasty u don’t need a great secondary, and offensively they are top 5...niners definitely had em stifled yesterday tho...and Murray looks like he injured his chest or shoulder? Gotta see how that pans outPart of the Broncos problems are injury. They were down, I believe two starting guards yesterday to go with their defensive injuries, their two WRs being down, and their QB being fresh out of concussion protocol. I feel dumb that I talked myself off the Steelers here, but I felt like Bridgewater being thrown back in there was too much of a weird X-factor and just stayed off. Turns out, it kind of backed up the rest of the Broncos’ problems. Until the Donks get healthy, they simply don’t have the firepower to stay with anybody, or the defense to keep anybody under 20.
The Pats were in a classic letdown spot yesterday, I think they’re still exactly who they are and just shouldn’t have been laying ten, esp. not in this spot.
The Bills are the team to beat in the AFC until further notice, that’s what that win said. Now, as Big Daddy said above, this sets up for a nice letdown vs. what should be a Titans team hungry to prove they belong next week. But only if the Titans are closer to healthy.
Massive loss for the Niners yesterday. That’s three losses in a row, two in the division. They’ve put themselves in a terrible position, some of that is due to injury, but some of that is due to them not knowing what they’re doing. The bye week couldn’t come at a better time for them. And they might be favored by 10 coming out of it vs. Indy, but honestly, they need to come out of the break with their dicks on fire. Only, you know, in a good way.
Both the Bears and Titans have a negative point differential on the year and are above .500. Tough to see how that lasts for very long one way or the other.
Bad loss for Carolina, big win for the Eagles. Also, huge moment in the development of one Jalen Hurts. I’ve been upfront about rooting for the guy, and yesterday he took a big step. Say what you want about how he got the ball, but the drive to take the lead, and the two point conversion, were the kind of stuff you can build around. This team is still a mess in a number of ways, Birds fans were losing their shit about the horrible play calling in this game (I didn’t see anything but the end) but Philly is one of those teams now that has some hope.
Which leads to a bigger thing, this week and definitely next are really when the dreams die. This is why I imagine you saw the coach of the Lions crying yesterday. His team really has fought its guts out, but they’re 0-5. You’re not coming back from 0-5. That doesn’t mean the Lions can’t and won’t still get some ATS money, or that you shouldn’t back them. But now is when reality starts setting in for the true bottom tier teams.
That losing-team Super Bowl hangover seems very, very real for Kansas City right about now. And now with Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out for a few weeks and they go on the road for two, @Washington and @Tenny. With a defense who can’t stop anybody. That Washington game feels a lot like the Eagles game this team just played to me, btw. Lots of scoring for both teams, I mean, who is going to stop anybody?
You probably get a big effort out of Seattle this week as they rally for Geno for a week. But this whole thing about how Russ could be back in four weeks feels like wish-casting. The guy had surgery on his throwing hand. Right now, they’re three games behind Arizona (fine, they still play them twice) but they’re two games behind the Rams and they’ve already lost to them once. Unless Geno rallies them to like three straight wins—@Pittsburgh, then at home for NO and Jax before their bye week (technically not impossible)—they may need to start making some business decisions as an organization.
I still like the Bengals. I can’t believe I’m saying it, but I do. They feel like a great teaser team because they show up in the second half every week.
Conversely, Carolina is 5-0 in the first half this year, getting the money again there yesterday even though they lost the game outright.
I don’t know if Arizona is for real, but when you’re 5-0, honestly, does it matter? You’re kind of on your way to the playoffs. Their schedule is about to get interesting: @Cleveland, Houston, GB, @SF, Carolina, @Seattle. Even if they have a let down on the road next week (entirely possible), they could rip off a number of wins and end up like 9-2 heading into their bye. Oh, also, AZ looks like they lost TE Maxx Williams for the season yesterday.
Dallas is good. The Giants are bad. Dallas will let you back into games at the end, which is good for the total and may be good for teasers as well. Just something to think about. The problem with teasers though is, Dallas seems to like to get up by like 17, then let you claw back, and if the original spread isn’t high, even the garbage points may not get you there.
Minnesota should have lost to a team without their starting pro-bowl center and a banged up defense.
I’m not sure what happened to the Raiders this week, other than being in a big look-ahead spot for a divisional game against the Donks. But they didn’t show up. They better next week though, if they have any intention of staying in this division race.
Cleveland is good. Forcing the Chargers into the endzone was smart coaching. You have the ball and over a minute to get a TD to win the game, it’s kind of all you can ask for.
Also, the Chargers are good. Probably the best in that division seeing as how KC can’t get it together right now.
I feel like we can now start talking about turnover differential. Five weeks in seems to be a realistic sample size.
Want to know what's going on with San Fran and KC, well ... Your top five/worst five teams in NFL turnover differential right now are:
Top 5 in tunover differential
Worst 5
- Buffalo (+11)
- Dallas (+7)
- Arizona (+5)
- NO (+5)
- Indy (+4)
Interesting to note that both Indy (+4) and Chicago (+3) are where they are in this list given their record.
- Jax (-10)
- KC (-7)
- SF (-5)
- NYJ (-5)
- Then you have a bunch of teams tied at -3 (Wash, Tenny, NE, Atlanta)
Top 5 most penalized teams
Imagine for a second what happens if Tampa and the Chargers clean up their penalty situation. Also, think about how that means extending drives for other teams when the bad teams on this list play better opponents (Think: Houston, NYJ, Philly)
- Philly (50)
- TB/LV (40)
- LAC/Houston (39)
- NYJ (35)
Five least penalized teams
Based on their turnovers and their penalty situation, you have to think Indy is dramatically underachieving right now. That may make the Colts a value team.
- LAR
- Indy
- Green Bay
- Cincy
- Baltimore
Last stat, sacks allowed
Top 5 (fewest sacks allowed)
- LAR
- Buffalo
- Washington
- KC
- A tie for fifth between, get this: Atlanta, Jax, and the Giants.
Worst five (most sacks allowed)
- Tenny (4.0)
- Chicago
- NYJ
- Miami
- Vegas (3.0)
- Then at six there's a huge log-jam at 2.8 per game of: Detroit, Denver, Cincy, Carolina, and Balty heading into tonight.
Now that we head into that part of the season where long term injuries have forced second string guys into action, teams that are out of it have that realization sink in, I feel like some of these trends of who teams are may start to take hold. Meaning, look at the Jets. They're giving up some of the most sacks in the league, they're penalized more than nearly everybody in the league, and (surprise) their point differential sucks. In a situation like this, you almost have to play short favorites against them nearly blind because of all the extra opportunities their opponents are getting from them. Obviously there will be spots that push you off that, but you see what I'm getting at.
Granted, the Jets suck, so you could just say, that's dumb, the Jets suck, why should I care about any of the metrics. Cool, but look at a team like Vegas. Assume for a second they play essentially the same statistical game they've been playing for the next three weeks as they go against some pretty suspect teams, @Denver, Philly, @NYG. And let's say they come out of that 2-1. If they're still sitting on numbers like these, and they're 5-3 heading into a stretch of KC, Cincy, and Dallas, they may be a prime go-against team. Something to think about.
I'm glad somebody (other than me) mentioned this. Effort be damned.Not sure who Gruden pissed off, but it was obviously somebody. Emails from like a decade ago just don't magically appear out of thin air, somebody has been sitting on these.
Oh yea for sure! That’s always how it goes! They wait til someone is successful then they doxxx em! They will completely crumble this season.Not sure who Gruden pissed off, but it was obviously somebody. Emails from like a decade ago just don't magically appear out of thin air, somebody has been sitting on these.
Yep. If it’s all manipulated to a degree, they’ll try and force Game outcomes that benefit their storylines.I'm glad somebody (other than me) mentioned this. Effort be damned.
I'm about to start capping based on social justice of the week on ESPN.
He “topped it”, to use a golf termI'm still trying to comprehend the physics on this. Punter looks like he had almost 3 yards clear ahead of him. At a normal punt angle it should've had no trouble clearing the blocker.
He was the originator of this thread many many moons ago.I learned this years ago with Monday coffee, but JP is a F'ing incredible read. His post are like epic novels. You laugh, you cry (when he talks bad about your team, b/c it's true), and walk away with your money's worth. **clapping hands**, encore, bravo...
LmaoHe “topped it”, to use a golf term