Week 5 props discussion/plays

2daBank

2daBank

2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Im going out of town 2marro and probably won’t be around much this weekend, ill check in some but gonna be kinda busy (meeting a girl I met online🤪🤩😎) so thought I’d start this a little early.

So I grabbed Taylen green ov 254.5 passing but when I just looked again he shot up to 268! Played this on the FanDuel picks so had to be in a parlay cause BOL doesn’t have a number up for him at the moment. If I can get him straight in the 260s I’ll prob grab that also.

McGowan (uk) ov 66.5 rush. Part of same parlay cause Bol doesn’t have anything up for this game yet either. I will be slamming anything close to this number straight when I get the chance! This dude is getting 15+ carries every game and id expect more of the same here. Teams are running all over this scary d and we know uk wants to grind the game out. I really don’t see a world he doesn’t go for 80+, I’ll prob wheel some alt lines if he comes out this low.

Stockton (Uga) ov 214.5 pass yards. That caps the parlay but I also played him ov 219.5 on bol. I just don’t think the path to success for either team in this game comes on the ground and with a 52 total it seems pretty reasonable to expect he goes for 220+, o could probably talk myself into wheeling a few alt numbers here but havnt went that far yet.

I’ll have more coming shorty 😎🤪
 
Guess I just lucked out with the green number, or waited to long cause now BOL has him up at 268.5, still like it but obviously not as much and kinda kicking myself for only getting what I did at 254.5.,
 
I don’t love this cause I’m a huge sellers fan but I think on principal we almost have to play his under 219.5, again bol doesn’t have anything up for this game yet so for now it just part of parlays. The main thing here is I’ve played sellers overs the last 2 weeks, he shoulda cashed both easily if not for the injury in the Vandy game. That said, his number was a good 10-15 yards lower than this! Now he playing against a uk team that is nothing like Vandy or Mizzou even, the scary d will absolutely dictate I play a lot of sellers overs but in this game I think it will result in uk eating up a lot of clock and I think the uk pass d will be a bigger challenge. As I mentioned I Don’t love this cause I’m a huge fan of this kid but on principal in a game with a much lower total his number being higher just doesn’t add up to me.
 
Very interested in playing Hoosiers Mendoza under passing yards but the way Rutgers lit up the Iowa d gives me a little hesitation. I’d think they clean the d up here but maybe it just not as strong as typical?

In same game Gronowski at 149.5 feels almost like a must, not sure playing a iowa qb over passing ever a fun idea but if the spread is to be believed Iowa could very well be trailing and forced to throw at some point and this about as low a number ya can get.
 
McGowan (uk) over .5 td’s -117.. still no yardage props up for this game on bol but td’s are. Dude has 6 tds already in 3 games, at least 1 in every game and 2 vs ol miss, already mentioned how little I think of scary defense, this feels like a no brainer at a way better price than most the featured backs!
 
Not sure if these fall in the props category but think I put team totals in these threads in previous years 🤪

Cuse tt ov 27.5., new qb doesn’t bother me much, he been around the block and apparently was in line to start before an injury in camp. Cuse does have a lot of pass catchers on the injury report as questionable, that does concern me a bit but getting this at less than 28 against a Duke defense that has been torched in pretty much every game and playing on a fast track I can’t help myself!!

Texas am Tt under 29.5., as long as Arnold doesn’t make mistakes to give points away this just feels like a crazy high number against the aub d. Yes Aggies have hung 40 in every game but they havnt faced a d anywhere close to this good imo, including nd who d been freaking awful. Aub held Baylor and Sooners to 24, I just doubt Texas am offense is much better than those teams.
 
Aaron Anderson (lsu) ov 73.5 rec yards., I expect nussmeier has a pretty big game here, ol miss d a step down from the d’s he been facing in the bigger games thus far. Anderson went over this on 3 catches vs ol miss last year and he cleared this in the Clemson and floridia games. Nussmeier number higher than I want to play but I’ll happily take his big play wr in a game I expect he has a lot of chances and will for sure need more points than against those other 2.
 
Gonna be a bunch of plays this week! Guess we deep enough into the year im starting to feel more confident with the props!! 🤪🤣
 
bo Jackson (osu) ov 49.5 rush ev., I mean is there a better name for a back?!?!? Little bit a guess here seeing how this kid has had exactly 9 carries in each the last 2 games against scrubs and didn’t get any vs Texas. That said he has popped one in both games and think osu will want to run the ball here, whether that a all game thing or to salt the game late I can’t imagine he gets less than 10 touches here. Obviously udub run d is better than the teams Bo been hitting these on, but I think udub run D numbers are probably a bit fugazi considering the comp they have faced. Colorado at had a back with 15ish carries go for over 6 a pop vs them with a 20 long so pretty confident osu can do something similar if bo doesn’t just pop another. You gotta give so much attention to the wrs it just seems like it bound to happen:
 
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2daBank said:
Aaron Anderson (lsu) ov 73.5 rec yards., I expect nussmeier has a pretty big game here, ol miss d a step down from the d’s he been facing in the bigger games thus far. Anderson went over this on 3 catches vs ol miss last year and he cleared this in the Clemson and floridia games. Nussmeier number higher than I want to play but I’ll happily take his big play wr in a game I expect he has a lot of chances and will for sure need more points than against those other 2.
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I think this is def an alt number wheel candidate but sometimes I piss myself off being greedy! That said 100+ doesn’t feel out the question at all here. especially if ol miss offense can hang a bigger score, if lsu gets put in a position to need a big score in this game I think the passing game will light Ol miss up!!
 
2daBank said:
Guess I just lucked out with the green number, or waited to long cause now BOL has him up at 268.5, still like it but obviously not as much and kinda kicking myself for only getting what I did at 254.5.,
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Didn’t say much bout green but it pretty simple. Irish secondary is a shell of itself but the offense appears really good. I don’t think Ark has any ability to stop Irish offense, the total screams high scoring. I don’t trust Ark to win or green not to make mistakes but I absolutely think green will be throwing a lot. Cashed his rush prop by a half yard last week (I almost always fall on wrong side of those!) I considered the rush prop here but I dunno how much I need to worry bout sacks? Just think it a given he gonna need to throw a lot. Irish team total over probably makes sense but it has to be 35ish?
 
2daBank said:
Not sure if these fall in the props category but think I put team totals in these threads in previous years 🤪

Cuse tt ov 27.5., new qb doesn’t bother me much, he been around the block and apparently was in line to start before an injury in camp. Cuse does have a lot of pass catchers on the injury report as questionable, that does concern me a bit but getting this at less than 28 against a Duke defense that has been torched in pretty much every game and playing on a fast track I can’t help myself!!

Texas am Tt under 29.5., as long as Arnold doesn’t make mistakes to give points away this just feels like a crazy high number against the aub d. Yes Aggies have hung 40 in every game but they havnt faced a d anywhere close to this good imo, including nd who d been freaking awful. Aub held Baylor and Sooners to 24, I just doubt Texas am offense is much better than those teams.
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LSU tt ov 26.5.,. Pretty much falls in line with my theme for this game. Assuming ol miss can generate offense I’d think nussmeier and co light this defense up.
 
Haynes (gtech) ov73.5 rush yards. The only real team wake faced ncst running back ran all over them for over 6 a pop and ncst run game is dick compared to tech. Obviously I play this dude or king a lot, that the only real concern is some games king hogs the rushing yards. Even so, assuming Gtech has the kind of lead this spread suggest I’d think they prefer running Haynes at end of games opposed to risking king all the time!! I don’t see wake run d being strong enough to stop either guy from getting his numbers.
 
Anybody have Szarka (Air Force) props? He had a monster 2nd half vs Boise and this may be (hopefully) the last chance to buy low on him.....
 
2daBank said:
Haynes (gtech) ov73.5 rush yards. The only real team wake faced ncst running back ran all over them for over 6 a pop and ncst run game is dick compared to tech. Obviously I play this dude or king a lot, that the only real concern is some games king hogs the rushing yards. Even so, assuming Gtech has the kind of lead this spread suggest I’d think they prefer running Haynes at end of games opposed to risking king all the time!! I don’t see wake run d being strong enough to stop either guy from getting his numbers.
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I like your thought here.
 
survive&advance said:
Very sharp group hit the Green yards this morning that’s why it jumped up a bit fwiw
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Yea I guess I got lucky to get him once at the good number, sucks it was just on one the parlays sites, bol already had him off the board and then put back up at freaking 268.5. I don’t hate it there but obviously 15 yards ain’t nothing. Appreciate it bro.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Anybody have Szarka (Air Force) props? He had a monster 2nd half vs Boise and this may be (hopefully) the last chance to buy low on him.....
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I don’t think I saw af props anywhere as of yet. Probably a mistake but I’ve never really shopped early for these. Only started early this week cause I’m headed to Dallas for weekend. 😜 think going forward I’ll start paying attention sooner.
 
2daBank said:
I think this is def an alt number wheel candidate but sometimes I piss myself off being greedy! That said 100+ doesn’t feel out the question at all here. especially if ol miss offense can hang a bigger score, if lsu gets put in a position to need a big score in this game I think the passing game will light Ol miss up!!
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Aaron Anderson is LSU’s best WR so far- he plays hard and they give him lots a quick pass plays- I really that one!
 
blowoutgm said:
Aaron Anderson is LSU’s best WR so far- he plays hard and they give him lots a quick pass plays- I really that one!
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For sure. He makes lot of big plays too. As long as ol miss is scoring I really think this a game nussmeier and co go off. I don’t think they have to go crazy for him to get this, i think he cashed in the Clemson and Florida games which were incredibly defensive so it not like we need a offensive explosion but I think it happens here. That why im thinking bout wheeling the alt lines
 
2daBank said:
Im going out of town 2marro and probably won’t be around much this weekend, ill check in some but gonna be kinda busy (meeting a girl I met online🤪🤩😎) so thought I’d start this a little early.

So I grabbed Taylen green ov 254.5 passing but when I just looked again he shot up to 268! Played this on the FanDuel picks so had to be in a parlay cause BOL doesn’t have a number up for him at the moment. If I can get him straight in the 260s I’ll prob grab that also.

McGowan (uk) ov 66.5 rush. Part of same parlay cause Bol doesn’t have anything up for this game yet either. I will be slamming anything close to this number straight when I get the chance! This dude is getting 15+ carries every game and id expect more of the same here. Teams are running all over this scary d and we know uk wants to grind the game out. I really don’t see a world he doesn’t go for 80+, I’ll prob wheel some alt lines if he comes out this low.

Stockton (Uga) ov 214.5 pass yards. That caps the parlay but I also played him ov 219.5 on bol. I just don’t think the path to success for either team in this game comes on the ground and with a 52 total it seems pretty reasonable to expect he goes for 220+, o could probably talk myself into wheeling a few alt numbers here but havnt went that far yet.

I’ll have more coming shorty 😎🤪
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I played these McGowan props earlier this week:

over 66.5 yds
Anytime TD +120
2 or more TDs +800


I also played NCSU -9.5
 
My prop today is Minny and Rutgers both to punt on 1st possession, $35 for $100. Other than that not much grabs my interest today.
 
He Hate Me said:
I played these McGowan props earlier this week:

over 66.5 yds
Anytime TD +120
2 or more TDs +800


I also played NCSU -9.5
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Good numbers, I got some at 66.5ish all way up to 85 at plus something. It was already -117 or something when I got td but think it more now. Really can’t picture him not hitting 80+ and a score.

I hate this but sellers number been bet all way into the 230s, I had to play under on principal, I taking his overs but with higher gm totals and 20-30 yards less than this week, it really don’t make a ton of sense to me he this much higher in a game I think be lower scoring,
 
2daBank said:
Good numbers, I got some at 66.5ish all way up to 85 at plus something. It was already -117 or something when I got td but think it more now. Really can’t picture him not hitting 80+ and a score.

I hate this but sellers number been bet all way into the 230s, I had to play under on principal, I taking his overs but with higher gm totals and 20-30 yards less than this week, it really don’t make a ton of sense to me he this much higher in a game I think be lower scoring,
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my 66.5 is -114
I saw 68.5 still around in places this morning
When I bet 66.5, over 80 was only like +128 or so, so I did not play any alt lines
 
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