Week 5 NFL


Breaking it down briefly
1Pm starts:

Colts -17 -102 (buy the hook to -16.5)(2.5x)

Clearly the concern here is how motivated Indy is? I think with a BYE WEEK undeck that certainly helps out. Especially since Indy is nicked up..

Both teams weaknesses are stopping the run and neither can really take advantage of that Rhodes and Addai are better then Brown and White.

In general the Colts defense has played well this year at HOME. Holding Jags to 14 and Texans to 24 which saw 3 4thquarter TDS in a blowout. The Texan offense appears light years ahead of Tenny though. You would expect Indy to put up 35 points and I dont see Tenny breaking 17.

Past 2 years the Colts were -12.5 and -15.5 vs Tenny at RCA. Same Colts squad while Tenny is falling...Givens OUT and Bennett Questionable leaving Young with few weapons...

Panthers -7.5 -101(buy to 6.5 )(8x)

Huge key the injury situation in Cleveland...there top 3 corners are not playing. There backup safety is OUTAnd FS Brian Russell is questionable. Even the offense is bange dup with Winslow and Droughns being on the injury list.

Now I hate laying wood with Carolina but they got backdoored last week versus a better Saints team(better then Cle). Here we get th same number basically and that has to present value. Remember that Cle hosted NO as small favs and lost SU. Remember that Cle was catching a TD 2 weeks ago at home vs Balt.

Remember Browns have struggled vs the Run enter DeAngelo Willaims and DeShaun Foster...now there solid pass defense is iffy starting there 4th and 5th corners.

Over 23 -113 Carolina team (3x)

Dolphins +10 -110 (4x)

Had played this earlier in the week thinking Dante was starting. Truth is the books and I agree that it really doesnt matter that he isnt. If the boooks cared tehy would have adjusted the line...just like when the Mets inserted Maine for ElDuque..

Pats still have some issues and the Bengals were getting to much respect last week and NE not enough after losing at home to Denver on primetime.

Public sees Miami off loss to Houston and NE off win @ cincy...Remember that Phins were only +1 in Pitt in week 1...Lets see how good that Miami run defense is..

Bears -9.5 -102 (2.5x)

Teams just do NOT score in Chicago...PERIOD!

Seattle 6 points , Lions 7 points...2 games 1 TD and 2 Fgs.

Last year ATL 3 , GB 7 , Car 3 , SF 9 , Balt 6 , Minny 3 , Det 6...the lone team cincy 24 in week 2..

I worry about a flat performance here but thats about all...Bills will again struggle on offense and should score 10 points...can chi top 20...I think theyget 20-23 here...

Under 35 -110 Bears & Bills (3x)

Lions +6.5 -103 (3x) ( buy it 7.5)

Minnesota is a run first offense and the Lions have been solid vs the run its the pass defense that has killed them. Brad Johnson isnt my concen as he is steady but his WR's are a question? I dont see how I can expect Minnyto score enough to be a TD fav..

DET offense appears to be improving every week and they narrowly missed a win in STL. Longwell battled strep throat this week and do yo want your best offensive weapon to be ill?

Bucs +6.5 -103(2.5x) (buy to 7.5)

First thing is the most impressive part about NO has been there defense. So I expect a low scoring game. Gradkowski appeared prepared to play in the preseason IMO. The Buc offense has just struggled since day one...

I expect the NO offense which IMO has struggled to score against ATL and Carolina to probably not top 20 points. Buc off a BYE will be ready to play...will the OL though?

TB is 4-1 past 5 in NO with a 3 pt loss. Not overly concerned about the Bucs run defense since it kept Car & Balt in relatiev check.

Under 35 -110 (4x)
thinking 17-14 game...

Still looking at the GB / StL game...

My honest OPINION is that NY is a SHARP play. There appears to be no reason why this line continues to run up. NY is historically bad off a bye week and betting appears to be split fairly even...yet the game keeps moving..I am staying away.

Downgraded the Colts to 1x.

Simply cause of Vinateri's absence..dont want to take the chance of any points left off the board...missed FGs can kill momentum as well.
good luck man...

you know im gonna put my 2 cents in here, as you do for me, so here i go:

i know you compare lines and look deep into them. you mention the mia line for game 1 this season @ pitt w/ a +1 line and you see this line today as skewed. once again, my arguement is apples and oranges. NOBODY (including vegas) had any idea what the outcome of this 1st game was going to be, back up qb, etc. Mansion even gave you a free 1k bet on this game (call it a coincidence if you want.)

NE did get crushed by denver, i know a lot of people liked NE to carry out the win in this game, but i had the den ml which paid out handsomly (you can check past threads for proof of said play.) Denver is no joke, held chiefs to a fg (i believe) and is in top 5 for defense, they are going to the playoffs and havce excellent SB potential.

i'm not being a dick, but this a forum, and those are my 2 cents.

of course my money is on NE, the line might be a little inflated due to the raping they gave cinci, but i cant see mia staying in this game for long. good health to you and the rest of your plays, ill be around this week for more arguing in MLB.

Thats a good point. I wouldnt say nobody had clue though.....

I liked pitt at home fading an unproven Miami team...You getthe SuperBowl winner at a PK??Think about it like that...

Its all about perception...just like in Pokert when a player goes on tilt you attack. When public perception is SKEWED heavily you attack...

Your not being a dick by any stretch...

I was all over Denevr go check my posts here about how INFLATED the Pats line ws that day......

All I am saying in regards to that is people dont understand the role of fav vs dog...

I see NE struggling to beat Buffalo which IMO as good as they are playing are still about equal to Miami even though they beatthem. They let the Jets come back and they were clearly outplayed vs Denver. All they have done is beat an overhyped bengal team that was nursing injuries...

No arguing only communicating....GL bro
It is pretty late in the day so I will keep this simple. Great looking card- I am on many of these plays...BOL today bro and take care :shake:
Sport, we like a few together.
The buc's are a game I was praying U did not have..
I dumped a few chickens and a cow on the saints today...
GL and GH
The Bucs are a risky play. I am having faith in there OL and offense....

What I did like is the TB defense vs the Saints offense thinking points wont come easy..

GL today...

I forgot t o post I have the UNDER 553.5 -104 (2x) as well
2nd half Plays

Giants -0.5 -115 (4x)

Packers +0.5 -108 (2x)

Thought this were sharp plays to begin with and am going to ride them after a half.

Titans +13.5 -123(2x)

Colts didnt show up and Tenn might even get the upset..

Which means my teaser is fucked! so sort of a hedge

Browns +3 -110(hedge1.5x) my big play

Under 16 -122 Chi(1x)

Figure CHI just pounds the ball and still unsure Bills get in the zone...
4 PM Est

Arizona Cardinals +4 -110(5x) ML +175 (1x)

Yes I do think that it is quite ridiculous how one game changed a world's opinion. I loved KC last week playing a SF team known to be outmatched when it travels. Especially sincnce KC is sound fundamentally , preached defense and the run....great spot at -7.

Now they face a team who has repeatedly shot itself in the foot. Warner has cost them so much the past few weeks it is amazing..the amount of red zone turnovers they had. yes, the OL is pretty poor but Ross is a plus. Having a slow, lead footed QB like Warner made it worse IMO. I loved how Leinart played in preseason...remember he missed alot of camp and still shined IMO. The offense is loaded...

KC relies on the run and ARI did a good job against STL and Stephen Jackson. The ARI defense is better then the scoreboard has shown....

Remember that the KC OL is still a

SF -122(2x)
Over 21 -114 SF team(2x)

SF had not looked awful till they traveled to KC so I expect a bounce back effort vs the NFL's worst Raiders.

Anyone know how OAK scored 21 last weeK? I sure dont...fumble recovery , 59 yard run ....

Dallas +1.5 +100 (4x)

I did play this the other day and clearly expect them to win so -1 or ML doesnt change my opinion.

Clearly Philly is not healthy and clearly the Eagles are over emphasizing this game putting to much significance on it.....its like what the Yankees do...I understand fully what TO did to that team but that team played on MNF and is banged up especially in the secondary...not good. Dallas is the best team in THE East top to bottom IMO....it will show today.

My feeling in NY / Jax is again we understimate the JETS simply cause Jags are banged up...Stroud OUT is huge!

Nothing there yet.......

Colts -16.5 -110(1x) Loss -1.10

Panthers -6.5 (8x) Win
Team over 23 -113(3x) Loss -3.39

Miami +10 -110 (4x) Push (actually had it @ 10.5 -120 but thats not what I posted is it.)

Bears -9.5 (2.5x) Win +2.5
Under 35 -110 (3x) Loss -3.30

Lions +7.5 -120 (3x) Loss -3.60

Bucs +7.5 -130 (2.5x) Win +2.5
Under 35 -110 (3x not 4 a typo check my blog)Loss -3.30

Giants ML -245 (2x) Win +2.00

Under 553.5 Salami -104 (2x)pending

Teaser (4x) -4.80
Carolina , Chicago and Indy

1 PM Update +0.30 Units (thanks to some mooses really +4.30 though and even had Carolina middle @ -6.5 and Cle +9. )

But teasers -4.80

2nd half Plays +4.06

Giants -0.5 -115 (4x)Win

NYG 10-0

Packers +0.5 -108 (2x)Loss -2.16
STL 9-7..Favre late fumble on the 11

Titans +13.5 -123(2x)Win +2.
Indy 14-3
Browns +3 -110(hedge1.5x) Win +1.5
Cle 9-6

Under 16 -122 Chi(1x) Loss -1.22
20 pts and 17 in final 6 minutes

So all in all about FLAT with some painful backdoors...

Late games:

KC +4 -110 (5x) ML +175 (1x)
Dallas +1.5 +100 (4x)
SF -3 -122(2x) and Over 21 SF -114 (2x)

Its truly amazing that almsot every NFL loss I suffer is extremely painful. Cant complain about being +4 but +12...sounds better.


Under 37.5 -120 (3x)

Parlay SD ML & Den ML (2x)

Teasers SD +6.5 , Den+4.5 and Under 47 SD (4x)
Thanks Farm.

I would play SD but hate that Pitt dropped 2 straight and is off the bye so just fucked around ..parlayed and teased it.


Are these guys kidding me praising McNabb! They should be tearing the Cowboys corners and safeties a new ass....He didnt do shit but a heave a few balls up for grabs..Thats why sportscasters are useless....masters of the obvious....I dont remember McNabb making A PLAY...didnt get that 3rd down conversion either.....

Cowboys OL and secondary lost the game and Phillys DL won it! Plain and simple.
Wow! perfect nite!

Under 37 .5 SD +3x
Miami-Ohio and team total +5.5
Over STL and STL +12.00

Very nice finish!

Early edition
+0.30(actually +4.30) sides / totals
-4.80 teasers
+4.12 2nd H



Pending Under 553.5 Salami (2x)
Parlay SD ML & Den ML (2x)
Teasers SD +6.5 won , Under 47 SD won and Denver +4.5 pending(4x)