Week #5 NFL Discussion (with lookahead lines)

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Always a good way to cap the NFL, is to look at what lies ahead...

We had a member doing this a lot a few years ago in NFL forum, so I figured I would try and get that going again...


Thursday Night:

Washington -5.5 /43.5 vs Chicago

Sunday:

Buffalo -5.5 / 47.5 vs Jacksonville

Detroit -7.5 / 43.5 vs Carolina

Indianapolis -1.5 / 42.5 vs Tennessee

Miami -9.5 / 50 vs NY Giants

New England -2.5 / 40.5 vs New Orleans

Baltimore -1.5 / 41 @ Pittsburgh

Philadelphia -5.5 / 46.5 @ LA Rams

Denver -2.5 / 40 vs NY Jets

Kansas City -5.5 / 52 @ Minnesota

San Francisco -3 / 45.5 vs Dallas

Monday Night:

Green Bay -1.5 / 44 @ Las Vegas
 
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Jets are underdogs against a team that just gave up 70 points. Hopefully its not too late to just beat everyone out for the number one pick because we know that Caleb would definitely not be a bust if he ended up with the Jets.
 
C-MAN said:
Balt an underdog @ Clev this week and a favorite @Pitt next week. Pitt just beat Cleveland. Either Clev is overvalued or Pitt is undervalued. I think Clev is being overvalued.
Click to expand...
I disagree with this. Pittiburgh was extremely lucky to beat the Browns and if Watson plays anything like he did last week they will win the division.
 
Oct 5 Thu 2023

07:15 PM
305Chicago Bears+6
-105		+215O 45
-110
306Washington Commanders+1 Markets-6
-115		-255U 45
-110
Oct 8 Sun 2023

08:30 AM
451Jacksonville Jaguars+5½
-106		+195O 48
-105
452Buffalo Bills

+1 Markets		-5½
-114		-225U 48
-115
12:00 PM
453Houston Texans+2½
-105		+125O 41½
-110
454Atlanta Falcons+1 Markets-2½
-115		-145U 41½
-110
12:00 PM
455Carolina Panthers+9
-110		+335O 44
-110
456Detroit Lions+1 Markets-9
-110		-415U 44
-110
12:00 PM
457Tennessee Titans+1
-110		-105O 42
-113
458Indianapolis Colts+1 Markets-1
-110		-115U 42
-107
12:00 PM
461New Orleans Saints+1
-108		+100O 38½
-110
462New England Patriots+1 Markets-1
-112		-120U 38½
-110
12:00 PM
463Baltimore Ravens-3½
-105		O 40
-110
464Pittsburgh Steelers+1 Markets+3½
-115		U 40
-110
03:05 PM
465Cincinnati Bengals-4
-105		-190O 42½
-110
466Arizona Cardinals+1 Markets+4
-115		+165U 42½
-110
03:05 PM
467Philadelphia Eagles-5
-112		O 47
-110
468Los Angeles Rams+1 Markets+5
-105		U 47
-110
07:20 PM
473Dallas Cowboys+3½
-110		+160O 45
-110
474San Francisco 49ers+1 Markets-3½
-110		-180U 45
-110
Oct 9 Mon 2023

07:15 PM
475Green Bay Packers-1
-115		-120O 44
-107
476Las Vegas Raiders+1
-105		+100U 44
-113
 
Frank Costanza said:
Has Jax typically played back-to-back in London? Big advantage staying on the ground there as Buffalo comes in.
Click to expand...
I don't think any team has ever played two games there in one season

Funny thing this morning they said the Bills were coming in and checking into the hotel the Jags were staying at so I assume they're switching hotels? Trevor said they were planning on hanging out in the city the next couple days, figured they were on a bye and didn't realize they're playing there next week too.

Clearly London's team.
 
B.A.R. said:
First impressions...

I am very happy to have an event on that Thursday night. Epic timing!

We have some potential for very low-scoring games on this slate.

Over in the Philly and Rams game.
Click to expand...
Yeah. Thursday is pretty brutal. Monday not much better. However, SNF makes up for both.
 
Pit, Jags and Atl jump out.

If you follow the series between Balt and Pit, you know that it doesn’t matter who plays quarterback, or how good or bad the teams are, these are always close games and the underdog usually covers.

Jack with a huge advantage staying in London and Buff coming off an emotional win vs divisional rival.

Atl is going to provide titled home/away splits all year IMO. Hou is improving but think they stumble in this spot.
 
KJ said:
I don't think any team has ever played two games there in one season

Funny thing this morning they said the Bills were coming in and checking into the hotel the Jags were staying at so I assume they're switching hotels? Trevor said they were planning on hanging out in the city the next couple days, figured they were on a bye and didn't realize they're playing there next week too.

Clearly London's team.
Click to expand...
I would think so too. In reality, if I was a player I’d say make it 3 games there. Gotta be pretty cool to be starting NFL QB with a pocket full of quid over there.

Fuck it make it half the season
 
C-MAN said:
Pit, Jags and Atl jump out.

If you follow the series between Balt and Pit, you know that it doesn’t matter who plays quarterback, or how good or bad the teams are, these are always close games and the underdog usually covers.

Jack with a huge advantage staying in London and Buff coming off an emotional win vs divisional rival.

Atl is going to provide titled home/away splits all year IMO. Hou is improving but think they stumble in this spot.
Click to expand...
I’m thinking Houston although it seems square.
Does Houston stop the run well?
Ridder is garbation.
 
The matchup just seems too good for Buffalo. Mobile QB vs Jax D, Trevor vs tough pass defense. If you like Jax it has to be because of the travel angle.
 
twinkie13 said:
I’m thinking Houston although it seems square.
Does Houston stop the run well?
Ridder is garbation.
Click to expand...
Texans run D hasn’t been consistent to say the least. When Colts beat them 31-20, Moss and AR combined for 123 rushing yards on 21 carries
 
VirginiaCavs said:
The matchup just seems too good for Buffalo. Mobile QB vs Jax D, Trevor vs tough pass defense. If you like Jax it has to be because of the travel angle.
Click to expand...
It’s not just the travel angle, but that helps. Jax D has seen Mahomes, Richardson … not sure they are as bad against mobile QBs as you’re saying. Buff secondary is banged up as well. Come on VC, get behind your squad!
 
C-MAN said:
It’s not just the travel angle, but that helps. Jax D has seen Mahomes, Richardson … not sure they are as bad against mobile QBs as you’re saying. Buff secondary is banged up as well. Come on VC, get behind your squad!
Click to expand...
Main concern for Buffalo is definitely the secondary with Tre done for the season (again). However the Bills d front is playing out of their minds and Trevor maybe just isn't that good.

jax had a 3 turnover advantage in both wins this season, I think that's the only way they cover this week. I could see it possibly being a more low scoring game but no way would I play the total under with the way Allen & the offense is playing rn.

IMO to play the Jags you have to be expecting a total letdown game where Allen throws 2 picks and the d can't stop the run. Sure they're off 3 blowout wins but no real look ahead and they're rolling. I just don't see it. Maybe nov26 @Philly before the bye week is a spot to fade Buffalo.NOt this week
 
brewers888 said:
I disagree with this. Pittiburgh was extremely lucky to beat the Browns and if Watson plays anything like he did last week they will win the division.
Click to expand...

Ok but he has played like that all of 1x in the last how many years? What he has shown is he has become incredibly inaccurate. One good game I think a bit premature to start talking like he all a sudden his old rapist self again. I agree they very tough if he becomes that guy again, I’m just gonna need more than 1 game to know he back. Still not sure they sun div, think I’d still take ravens who have a million injuries (per usual) and stlll winning ganes.,
 
2daBank said:
Ok but he has played like that all of 1x in the last how many years? What he has shown is he has become incredibly inaccurate. One good game I think a bit premature to start talking like he all a sudden his old rapist self again. I agree they very tough if he becomes that guy again, I’m just gonna need more than 1 game to know he back. Still not sure they sun div, think I’d still take ravens who have a million injuries (per usual) and stlll winning ganes.,
Click to expand...
I agree we need to see more than one good game from Watson but if he plays well they can win the division with their defense which is fantastic. Then again I always underestimate Baltimore who always seems to come out on top.
 
brewers888 said:
I agree we need to see more than one good game from Watson but if he plays well they can win the division with their defense which is fantastic. Then again I always underestimate Baltimore who always seems to come out on top.
Click to expand...

Im with you if he plays like he did the other week the browns will be very good, I thought coming into the year if Watson regained his form this was probably the best division in football and it wasn’t even close. Of course Steelers have been a total shit show which I did not expect, I did kinda see these struggles for cincy coming but I still have faith in burrow (just dunno how long he can stay upright?!?!?). It def looking like a 2 horse race, I’ll always believe in ravens cause they have proven it time and again but man this team seems snake bitten when it comes to injuries the last few years! They can’t keep a running back or wr healthy! And they still find ways to win!! If ravens can just keep the wr’s mostly healthy I’ll still ride with them but if Watson really is becoming that dude again they will both be in playoffs!
 
B.A.R. said:
First impressions...

I am very happy to have an event on that Thursday night. Epic timing!

We have some potential for very low-scoring games on this slate.

Over in the Philly and Rams game.
Click to expand...
I should have pounced on that total in Rams. We have 50.5 currently!!
 
Gandolf said:
Fantasypoints has opened up their database for this week as a free preview. Some interesting stats on Justin Fields passing depth of target:

0-9 yards - #2 in passer rating
10-19 yards - #31 in passer rating
20+ yards - #4 in passer rating
Click to expand...
Makes a lot of sense, the mid range is where the joes tend to go to die. Passing in that window takes so much more talent than the other two windows
 
KJ said:
Makes a lot of sense, the mid range is where the joes tend to go to die. Passing in that window takes so much more talent than the other two windows
Click to expand...
I think you're right...the numbers seem to bear this out

Top ten starting QBs for 10-19 yard throws based on passer rating (min 18 att):

Geno - has a perfect passer rating of 158.3 (17-18 for 243 and 4 TDs)
Lamar - 150.0 - the new offense seems to have helped
Purdy - 145.4 - also #8 in 0-9 yards and #5 in 20+ yard throws (maybe he's more than just a system QB)
Allen - 128.9
Mahomes - 128.3 - interesting to me is he's 30th (!) in 20+ yard throws. Where is his go to deep threat?
Herbert - 123.1
Tua - 122.5
Russ - 114.4 - no surprise is the fact he's #4 in 20+ yard throws
Kirk - 113.0
Pickett (?!) - 111.3 - he's 27th from 0-9 yards and 23rd from 20+ yards
 
Gandolf said:
I think you're right...the numbers seem to bear this out

Top ten starting QBs for 10-19 yard throws based on passer rating (min 18 att):

Geno - has a perfect passer rating of 158.3 (17-18 for 243 and 4 TDs)
Lamar - 150.0 - the new offense seems to have helped
Purdy - 145.4 - also #8 in 0-9 yards and #5 in 20+ yard throws (maybe he's more than just a system QB)
Allen - 128.9
Mahomes - 128.3 - interesting to me is he's 30th (!) in 20+ yard throws. Where is his go to deep threat?
Herbert - 123.1
Tua - 122.5
Russ - 114.4 - no surprise is the fact he's #4 in 20+ yard throws
Kirk - 113.0
Pickett (?!) - 111.3 - he's 27th from 0-9 yards and 23rd from 20+ yards
Click to expand...
That's the zone that requires quick recognition and they either have it or they don't

Very difficult to learn that. Made Warner a hall of famer
 
Gandolf said:
I think you're right...the numbers seem to bear this out

Top ten starting QBs for 10-19 yard throws based on passer rating (min 18 att):

Geno - has a perfect passer rating of 158.3 (17-18 for 243 and 4 TDs)
Lamar - 150.0 - the new offense seems to have helped
Purdy - 145.4 - also #8 in 0-9 yards and #5 in 20+ yard throws (maybe he's more than just a system QB)
Allen - 128.9
Mahomes - 128.3 - interesting to me is he's 30th (!) in 20+ yard throws. Where is his go to deep threat?
Herbert - 123.1
Tua - 122.5
Russ - 114.4 - no surprise is the fact he's #4 in 20+ yard throws
Kirk - 113.0
Pickett (?!) - 111.3 - he's 27th from 0-9 yards and 23rd from 20+ yards
Click to expand...
Wow look at Geno. Never would’ve guessed that. Sneaky Pete’s a bitch but that guy is pretty good.
 
Cheese will have a massive crowd in Vegas while they're still relevant but they are not good. No way in hell I'm laying points with Jordan Love on the road, it's a very bad team. Sheer talent the Raiders outclass the Pack all over the place.
 
KJ said:
Cheese will have a massive crowd in Vegas while they're still relevant but they are not good. No way in hell I'm laying points with Jordan Love on the road, it's a very bad team. Sheer talent the Raiders outclass the Pack all over the place.
Click to expand...
Agree to disagree.
BTW the Pack are now the dog, not the fav.
 
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KJ said:
Yeah not sure I even care about the game enough to bet it

I simply couldn't bet the Pack in this spot though. Both teams are on the fade radar
Click to expand...
My top play noted in my post. GB should be giving 2 1/2 or 3 to the Raiders in this spot. I'm getting basically even on the money.
 
KJ said:
Yeah not sure I even care about the game enough to bet it

I simply couldn't bet the Pack in this spot though. Both teams are on the fade radar
Click to expand...

Why pack a fade for you? I think they been undervalued. They should start getting guys back too. Watson should be healthy and practicing this past week, he gonna make a huge impact, Jones should be better, I’d think even the tackle who I’m not even gonna try to spell his name! He always hurt but they been saying he close and it will have been 11 more days by game day. I’m all aboard on pack in a way, I think fully healthy they be better than last years version with a uninterested double bitch playing qb!

Oh and I think adams one the best wrs in the league but packers corners ain’t punks and they went up against him in practice every day for years, if anyone can slow him down I think it these guys!
 
2daBank said:
Why pack a fade for you? I think they been undervalued. They should start getting guys back too. Watson should be healthy and practicing this past week, he gonna make a huge impact, Jones should be better, I’d think even the tackle who I’m not even gonna try to spell his name! He always hurt but they been saying he close and it will have been 11 more days by game day. I’m all aboard on pack in a way, I think fully healthy they be better than last years version with a uninterested double bitch playing qb!
Click to expand...
Pack are too popular to ever be undervalued. Like Steez/Cow/Pats etc

Love is not a good QB imo and the weapons are less than stellar. I want to fade them as long as they are being overvalued. Problem is the Raiders are a complete dumpster fire as far as organizations go.
 
KJ said:
Pack are too popular to ever be undervalued. Like Steez/Cow/Pats etc

Love is not a good QB imo and the weapons are less than stellar. I want to fade them as long as they are being overvalued. Problem is the Raiders are a complete dumpster fire as far as organizations go.
Click to expand...

We just gonna have to disagree on pretty much all those points. Cept the fact raiders a dumpster fire, lol.
 
I think ppl lost faith In packers when that douche left the building, then jets became the darlings. Love was very good in college, love has potential to be a very good qb.
 
2daBank said:
We just gonna have to disagree on pretty much all those points. Cept the fact raiders a dumpster fire, lol.
Click to expand...
Yeah I'm not into investing thought to debate this one

Not even sure how much I even bet on Green Bay games this year. Kinda enjoy tossing them away.
 
KJ said:
Yeah I'm not into investing thought to debate this one

Not even sure how much I even bet on Green Bay games this year. Kinda enjoy tossing them away.
Click to expand...

I don’t like nfl enough to argue bout a team, they could turn out to be total shit for all I know! Lol! I’m not a big fan of their coach I’ll give you that!
 
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2daBank said:
I don’t like nfl enough to argue bout a team, they could turn out to be total shit for all I know! Lol! I’m not a big fan of their coach I’ll give you that!
Click to expand...
Yeah if I spend more than a few minutes on NFL regular season games I would employ someone to smack me upside the head

It's common knowledge that no sport has tighter lines than NFL, just not worth the effort to validate any opinion I have. Rather cap pickleball
 
Loves2kickass said:
Me either but I'm a big fan of money lol
Click to expand...

We have that in common! I tend to make more of it on props than actual nfl sides tho! Love numbers been pretty short, think I’m gonna be blasting him this week assuming it under 230.. I dunno, only reason I came to nfl forum was to try to talk bout tonight. I generally don’t worry bout nfl till after a bash the books heads in on ncaa games and props! :).

What you think bout tonight? I’m very torn, I have no doubt Washington pass rush gonna be all In fields face but I dunno if they will maintain gap control? They prob gonna sack him a bunch but I could see a monster rushing game for him, he gonna be running for his life!

Wish I trusted bears oc, smart teams have been getting their beat wr matched up on commanders rookie corner and roasting him, DJ Moore will have field day if they do this!

I love commanders offense, Bienemy will finally start getting credit he deserves. I’m just not sure bout game script tonight. If the d turns fields over and reeks havoc in 1st half it could be a very heavy Brian Robinson rush game! If bears manage to stay in it Howell and co will put up numbers.
 
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