week 5 NCAA


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Staff member
will update record later..

locked this one in with the suspensions, expect line to go down a little...Morgan is a key piece to vatech.

Gtech +9...-111 for 1 unit.

Serious revenge game here, I am not impressed with hokies QB at all. Gtech gets up for these types of games, Reggie Ball has about 3 great games a year, I think this is one of them...VT is getting a lot of points on special teams, I don't see it happening here.
Interesting. Isnt this Ga Techs first road game? I see a blowout.. Tech usually wins one of these a year, but they also get smashed in one of these.
Good luck
Updated record: 7-5....+3.1 units including juice

abcs, you might be right, but I don't see a senior QB laying down on the road, maybe if it was a freshman qb.
anyone got any balls to take moffett and his grill at +4.5 tomorrow?

raises hand

i dont udnerstand why this line opened so low, knowing it will be pushed up no time. opened at 3.5 now 4.5. as bad as central FL is how can southern miss only be more than a fg better? cfl is given up close to 500 yards on D per game this year, pass D sucks. from a capping standpoint i have this shit atleast southen Miss -8. im sure after tha game i will be :hairout: but hope to be money; after a :moose:
some random thoughts of my own from last week...keep in mind I am mostly a big ten guy and follow major conferences only for the most part.

I am not that impressed with USC this year, they do not have the same team obviously, still very well coached but there is something about them this year, they don't have that aura, not as intimidating I guess I will take WSU later this week or if it gets to 17.5 and maybe a small ML play as well...WSU will be at home and amped for this one, WSU has a decent qb too.

Penn State is a few turnovers away from being a better team and I believe Morelli will be a good one by the end of the year once he learns to read coverages.

Ohio State will have a tough time at Kinnick in my opinion. I know Iowa has not looked that great but they will be ready for this one, they have a few playmakers on offense, this isn't like going to Austin and facing a freshman, Tate has been around and has some solid playmakers. Iowa D is overmatched by Buckeyes O though.

Michigan has too much speed on defense for Minny to hang around, Cupito will throw a few picks because UM will stop the run game...Breaston needs to learn how to catch. Also,you can't cover MM 1 on 1...he is the next great UM wideout.

Florida will humiliate Alabama, Alabama's QB has not seen this kind of Defense yet, and he is good for 2 or 3 picks IMO...UF has too much on both sides of the ball for Alabama to hang with them IMO.

Notre Dame was lucky as shit last week obviously, but they have the confidence now and will at least win SU at home this week, but 17 is a lot of points, or whatever it is at.

Georgia is playing Ole Miss, I see a UGA win but don't know about the cover, the QB situation is shaky at best...I can't lay the points there no matter how good the run game and D is, that is a lot of points with an inexperienced qb.

Auburn has the best D in the country, nuff said.

GL all.
tru..USM QB is no dustin almond either, I might take a peek at Lil John if I can get 7 as well.
i am also lookin at wash st right now. usc is very overrated this year, besides that arky game they havent proved shit to me. 17 right now at pinny, hope to see this rise a lil more. wash st O should be able to keep pace wit usc. hopefully brink will have a big game.

i hope to see it get to 7, its a system play i jus hate seein every capper i respect around here on southern miss, an me gonna hit ucf. this isnt covers, when tha majority of cappers here are on 1 side, that fuckin side covers.
Monday, September 25, 2006
Hokies suspend pair for game with No. 24 Ga. Tech
ESPN.com news services

BLACKSBURG, Va. -- Virginia Tech defensive end Chris Ellis and split end Josh Morgan have been suspended for violating team rules and will miss the game Saturday against No. 24 Georgia Tech.

Ellis and Morgan were suspended by coach Frank Beamer on Monday after both players were arrested early Sunday morning following an altercation outside of a downtown nightclub in Blacksburg, Va.
Lt. Joe Davis of the Blacksburg Police Department said officers from his department responded to calls of a "large crowd forming and advised a fight was about to "break out" around 1:50 a.m. Sunday.
Davis said Morgan, a junior from Washington, D.C., didn't follow officers' commands to leave the area and was arrested on Class I misdemeanor charges of disorderly conduct and obstructing an officer.
Ellis, a junior from Hampton, Va., was arrested and charged with misdemeanor obstructing an officer after he failed to leave the scene after Morgan was arrested.
"They went to place Morgan under arrest and he did not follow their orders or commands," Davis said.
"Ellis went to try to get involved with the officers who were arresting Morgan and didn't follow their commands and was taken into custody. It was pretty cut and dry."
Davis said neither player was jailed and both were released on personal recognizance bonds.

Ellis is one of the No. 11 Hokies (4-0) most disruptive defensive linemen, recording 12 tackles this year, including one sack.

Morgan is Tech's second-leading receiver, with 10 catches for 161 yards and two touchdowns. He blocked two punts, including one for a safety in the Hokies' 29-13 victory over Cincinnati on Saturday.
Information from The Associated Press and ESPN.com college football reporter Mark Schlabach was used in this report.
thanks sooner...

I agree TRU, I NEVER fade people but there is a certain poster at covers that is on USM big that I have faded before....hmm.
heh ur gonna have to hit me on aim an tell me who ;)

still lookin at this southern miss/ucf game, still dont understand tha reasoning to an opening line of 3.5. i might jus lay off this game

somiss points for 29.7 against 17.0
ucf points for 17.3 against 27.3

somiss yards per game for 397.3 against 298.3
ucf yards per game for 272 against 464

somiss yards per rush for 5.4 against 4.1
ucf yards per rush for 2.8 against 3.7

somiss yards per pass for 7.6 against 5.6
ucf yards per pass for 5.5 against 9.9
tru -

I think its a sound line if not slightily inflated.

Common opponent this year . Florida . One team is plus +20 on the open another +23. That tells you one team is 3 pts better on a neutral field. So Miss was the stronger team and played a better game so you adjust slightily to say -6 on a a neutral field. Game is at UCF so give them 3 for home field....and you get -3 So Miss.

Go back last year soMiss hosted UCF laying 8.5 and blew them out. To thing sthat strike me. UCF came out of nowhere so for the most part they were undervalued but after winning 3 straight there I think that line might have been somewhat soft...say SoMiss -10 do the home field adjustments and it would have been -3 or -4 @ UCF last year.

Thats where they get the number.....remember rarely do linesmakers adjust there power rankings so they are usually using teh same set of numbers to set lines.

Now ALmond graduates and the new Qb and RB mean SoMiss strength has to drop some. Factor in SoMiss runs the ball and UCF is solid against the run. UCF weak vs the pass but SoMiss hasnt proven they can throw it. thats a big edge for UCF on defense.

With key young players as road chalk its always a concern.

have to look more at indivual games and such. My general feeling is that people thought th eopening line was soft but it wasnt and with teh bump up to 5.5 you have nice value in UCF. Same team as last year basically who won 4 games at home losing the CHAMPIONSHIP vs Tulsa. Losing USf was suprising an hopefully motivating.

Think of Somiss as the Ravens and UCF as the Browns this week. Played CLE so play UCF ! GL
Hunt..nice thread dog. I know zactly what poster you talk of. I just found the thread at Covers. Makes me feel even better about my UCF pick..gl bro!


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Sportnut, good stuff, thanks bro.

BAR, gl to you this week chardo, same to you VAS.

I decided I am going to play UCF ML +225 for 1/2 unit.

I love the live dog tonight, I don't bother with the points in this situation, the value is in the ML IMO.

GL all.
thanks fellas...

adding parlay for 1.4 units to win 1 unit

Auburn ML
Florida ML
Notre Dame ML
Michigan ML

gl all
Oh, I'm kidding. I'm on Auburn -9.

But a German would try to trick you into betting that game by betting it himself. Hmmmm...
LOL...RJ must be getting burned out on depos. All lawyers are Germans in depos.

Anyways, i'll take another look a GTech, Hunt. Like the parlay too. BOL with whatever you add for saturday.

Last thing...not sure what happened to auburn's defense, but tonight it wasn't even top 5. couldn't even f-ing tackle...and was nothing like the defense i saw vs lsu. oh well...jsut disappointed in that performance.
Yanks, I think it was Spurrier's game plan that just had them baffled, Newton really surprised me.

adding washington state at 17.5 for 1 unit..bought to -120

I'm not very good with predicting line moves, as I should have waited on Gtech, but I had to grab this as soon as I heard Jarret is out for sure. USC passing game does not impress me all that much this year and WSU is a good home team..getting 17.5 is a lot of points for a decent offense at home with an ok defense..USC is more ball control this year and haven't really taken many shots down the field...they don't seem to have that home run threat yet.

gl all.
that's a good add, bro. btw...jsut jumped on gtech wiht you.
anyways, trojans are having some growing pains offensively. their defense TY is actually the strength of the team right now...opposite of LY. and with the star WR out...thinking it'll be closer to a 10 pt win, where i've been thinking 14 to 16 earlier.
anyways, gl
A PERFECT week!! Nice going dude!!
thanks fellas...

adding parlay for 1.4 units to win 1 unit

Auburn ML
Florida ML
Notre Dame ML
Michigan ML

gl all

Nice hit on the ML par... Lots of other great plays too.