Week 5 ML UNDERDOGS Discussion

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Helluva week for the dogs last week!

Don't sleep on those Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens as they cashed for the second straight week!

Helluva value # on Syracuse as well - cashing as a +561 (at minimum) dog vs the most disappointing big boy team this year. That wasn't even in question most of the game.

Eastern and Western Michigan representing my state well cashing their respective tickets.

Arizona State was a short dog, but nonetheless many felt that rame was mispriced and were rewarded.

Finally, late night, SDSU beat the brakes off Cal out west.

Going by the contest, we had 14 underdogs claim wins this week. More to come!

WEEK #5....

I've seen some chatter that Arkansas might be live at home vs Notre Dame. Thoughts?

Iowa, at home is catching a TD to the Hoosiers who just whalloped the Illini last weekend.

Im not sure if I'm ready to trust Louisville laying 4+ on the road...

Can Syracuse do it again? Will they get up for this one like they did Clemson?

The angle of first game with a new coach is in effect in UCLA @ Northwestern. That's a tough team to trust -- but the opponent isn't all that inspiring!

Arizona has been off since the 12th and have a statement game at ISU.

Messy State hosting Tennessee.. catching a TD plus here. Road conference games hit differently. These are the types of games which will let us know if Tennessee is serious this year or not.

One game I think will be heavily talked about is Illinois catching the points vs USC. The game is at 11am Central/9am Pacific. The Illini are off as bad of a beating as you'll see. Tough start time for SC. This is a fun cap!

Two elite games with short road dogs -- Alabama and Oregon. Both can easily win it on the field!

Enough of my rambling... What say YOU??
 
Cuse QB out for season....hard to tell what we'll get....

Illinois has a ton of secondary injuries....not sure on statuses, but safe to say they won't be 100%

I think any decent team is live vs ND with that defense.....

I dont think there's any real value on the Bama or Oregon games....seems like lines are right and are coinflips....kind of a waste of capping time trying to find an edge imo
 
Dollaz said:
Honestly, unless its QB or star players, I don't focus too much on injuries.
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I know what you mean. I'm a big believer in cluster injuries impacting the matchup. Here, ILL DBs being down is potentially really bad news vs USC WR corp which is already elite and a big part of what they do. Same injuries vs Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern or Wisconsin, I don't care nearly as much. Not saying to back USC but that's the biggest thing that's keeping me off Illini so far because it's such a good spot.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
I know what you mean. I'm a big believer in cluster injuries impacting the matchup. Here, ILL DBs being down is potentially really bad news vs USC WR corp which is already elite and a big part of what they do. Same injuries vs Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern or Wisconsin, I don't care nearly as much. Not saying to back USC but that's the biggest thing that's keeping me off Illini so far because it's such a good spot.
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Exactly on your last point.

My initial intent here is to watch a quarter, much like Oregon @ Northwestern. If I see something with regards to the passing game, I'll look for some value in a live TT.
 
I have no clue what possessed them to make Duke a 6 point favorite at cuse? I’ve watched pretty much every meaningful snap from both teams and Duke is a mistake waiting to happen and manny d been getting carved up! Give me cuse and the points all day, I’ll prob sprinkle the ml too. The over should cash pretty easily too. I prefer more defensive/running dogs but I just don’t believe Duke is much better than cuse.
 
maybe Hoosiers showed something last week destroying Illini but I tend to think that was as much bout Illini being overrated. Getting 7 at Iowa? Yes please, all day!
 
See if aub can fuck me again getting safety in endzone to turn an all game cover into a push, that said love idea of points with this team still.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
I know what you mean. I'm a big believer in cluster injuries impacting the matchup. Here, ILL DBs being down is potentially really bad news vs USC WR corp which is already elite and a big part of what they do. Same injuries vs Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern or Wisconsin, I don't care nearly as much. Not saying to back USC but that's the biggest thing that's keeping me off Illini so far because it's such a good spot.
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I understand that by all means. I also belive the talent levels at spots 1 through 3 or 4 at the college level aren't as much as people perceive. Yes, there may be some dropoff but it would have to be really significant for it to affect a play for me.

I can certainly see a case for being concerned with cluster injuries though. This is too good of a spot for me to pass up.
 
2daBank said:
maybe Hoosiers showed something last week destroying Illini but I tend to think that was as much bout Illini being overrated. Getting 7 at Iowa? Yes please, all day!
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Indiana was a playoff team last year (i know competition was a concern) but they returned their best players and added a potential first round QB. It was easy for me to be on Indiana last week, I capped it for about 20 seconds. This week is the perfect spot, in my mind, for Illinois.
 
Dollaz said:
I understand that by all means. I also belive the talent levels at spots 1 through 3 or 4 at the college level aren't as much as people perceive. Yes, there may be some dropoff but it would have to be really significant for it to affect a play for me.

I can certainly see a case for being concerned with cluster injuries though. This is too good of a spot for me to pass up.
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I hear you, the spot is really good. I'm going to pass but BOL to you, hope it hits in part because I'm looking ahead W7 USC vs Michigan for a big play and I don't want USC hanging 50 in an EST time zone game and raising expectations for them.
 
Dollaz said:
Indiana was a playoff team last year (i know competition was a concern) but they returned their best players and added a potential first round QB. It was easy for me to be on Indiana last week, I capped it for about 20 seconds. This week is the perfect spot, in my mind, for Illinois.
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Im talking more bout Iowa at home than last week. I still think Hoosiers overrated. Last years team was a sham and proved it. Not sure I buy this qb as a 1st rounder but maybe if they actually beat some teams I respect I’ll be proven wrong.
 
I'm liking UCF and as much as I hate to say it WVU is worth a look. Utah may bounce back and roll them but that OL has something wrong with it. Even against Wyoming they looked soft.

I need to dig into the WVU defense a little more, I haven't watched a snap. I still expect the Utah defense to show, under may be worth a look as well.

I like UK more with Boley at QB as well.
 
2daBank said:
Im talking more bout Iowa at home than last week. I still think Hoosiers overrated. Last years team was a sham and proved it. Not sure I buy this qb as a 1st rounder but maybe if they actually beat some teams I respect I’ll be proven wrong.
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Ain’t no way I would lay 7 with Indiana on the road at Iow
 
Dollaz said:
Ain’t no way I would lay 7 with Indiana on the road at Iow
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Yea. It really not even me knocking Hoosiers here. There not many teams I’d lay a td at Iowa. There teams i probably wouldn’t bet Iowa but Indy isn’t one of them. Little worried about all the numbers Rutgers put up on Iowa last week but I expect the d to play better at home.
 
@twinkie13 what we think bout uk this week?? I love sellers but I havnt seen an offense scary d can slow down. I guess vtech but they terrible and that wasn’t exactly a blowout on the scoreboard. Obviously I’m a much bigger fan of ya’ll d than offense but I’d think they will have enough success on O to be able to dictate tempo. Scary off 2 tough games and uk coming on off a bye is nice too! I’m def taking the points, think I could be talked into the ml pretty easy.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Arky
Arizona
Kentucky
Oregon
Cal
UCF
Illinois
FAU
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Uk and ducks really tempting. Ducks look fantastic but this a huge ask going to psu at night. Think I feel more confident in Uk just cause I’ve seen scary d enough to think Uk will be able to dictate tempo. Think I’m interested in the ducks/psu under in some fashion.

I think I’ll probably look more at green passing props than playing Ark, I understand the play, they really could be 4-0 if not for fumbling a couple red zone trips away the last 2 weeks. I suppose that gives us line value here but 4 still feels little light especially seeing how Irish were laying 3 to open year at Miami. Just not sure I can trust the razorbacks to finish in what I do think be a really competitive game, crazy high total but Irish d hasn’t looked anything like I woulda expected coming into the year!! Green over 250ish makes so much sense and I don’t have to stress bout them winning.
 
"Can Syracuse do it again? Will they get up for this one like they did Clemson?"

I looked at Syracuse too, but dropped the idea when I found out they lost Angeli--who was leading the country in passing--to an Achilles injury. He's out for the season. Collins was highly touted out of high school and may turn out to be as good as Angeli, but I decided to wait and see
 
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2daBank said:
@twinkie13 what we think bout uk this week?? I love sellers but I havnt seen an offense scary d can slow down. I guess vtech but they terrible and that wasn’t exactly a blowout on the scoreboard. Obviously I’m a much bigger fan of ya’ll d than offense but I’d think they will have enough success on O to be able to dictate tempo. Scary off 2 tough games and uk coming on off a bye is nice too! I’m def taking the points, think I could be talked into the ml pretty easy.
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Stoops' teams are normally awful coming a bye....0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS since 2019 as an away dog....0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS as an away dog overall. Sellers tore our ass up last year. Granted, our offense could not move the ball (credit SC's defense) and left our defense on the field too long but I don't doubt Sellers is chompin' at the bit for this game to start. I'm not expecting much from my Cats. Granted I'm a UK homer so I do not have an objective view. 🫣
 
Furthermore, Mark Stoops' teams are 3-23 SU as an away dog and having lost the previous matchup at home. See picture below. The only time he won was in 2020 in Knoxville and 2019 in Gainesville when we had a clear edge at QB in both games. Our defense made multiple INT's in that Tennessee game and we had a huge mission going to Florida to stop their million game win streak over us at the time. In the Louisville game, their defense was awful and we took advantage...also had some huge turnovers by Lamar Jackson in the 2nd half of that game. I don't see any of these edges in our favor Saturday night....on the contrary, this is a must win for a Gamecock team that had playoff hopes when the season began. I guess I'm a debbie-downer type of Ky fan but I do not have any faith we win this game. Best of luck in what you decide!

markstoops.jpg
 
App St +16…other than playing in the road and Smurf turf this App St run D is legit…strong run D will keep you in any game. It’s a key defensive stat that you just can’t fake…I’m on em +16 but it wouldnt surprise me if the pull of the upset
 
BenchCoach said:
App St +16…other than playing in the road and Smurf turf this App St run D is legit…strong run D will keep you in any game. It’s a key defensive stat that you just can’t fake…I’m on em +16 but it wouldnt surprise me if the pull of the upset
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Nice!

I'll likely tail that doggie coach..
 
JROCK1966 said:
Stoops' teams are normally awful coming a bye....0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS since 2019 as an away dog....0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS as an away dog overall. Sellers tore our ass up last year. Granted, our offense could not move the ball (credit SC's defense) and left our defense on the field too long but I don't doubt Sellers is chompin' at the bit for this game to start. I'm not expecting much from my Cats. Granted I'm a UK homer so I do not have an objective view. 🫣
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Jfc man those numbers you giving me worrisome. I just don’t think scary d is any good. I’d think ya’ll should be able to control clock, I’ll have some uk with the points I grabbed early this week and a lot of McGowan over rush yards at various numbers, guess im kinda scared off wanting any more on uk tho! 🤣 appreciate it
 
BenchCoach said:
App St +16…other than playing in the road and Smurf turf this App St run D is legit…strong run D will keep you in any game. It’s a key defensive stat that you just can’t fake…I’m on em +16 but it wouldnt surprise me if the pull of the upset
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Big look ahead game for Boise too.
 
NMSU +15. Rivalry game and the last time we saw NM at home they were life and death to beat Idaho St, who led going into the 4th quarter.
 
My play for the week....4, 5, & 6-teamer RR with:

Iowa +245
Illinois +198
Pitt +146
Mississippi State +220
Middle Tennessee +205
Florida Atlantic (+6.5 alt. line) +200
Risked $25 (~$1 per Parlay) to Win $5,685.66

BOLTA!!

🍀 🍀 🍀 🍀
 
BenchCoach said:
App St +16…other than playing in the road and Smurf turf this App St run D is legit…strong run D will keep you in any game. It’s a key defensive stat that you just can’t fake…I’m on em +16 but it wouldnt surprise me if the pull of the upset
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I agree. No better indicator of a good team than a tough rush defense. First thing I look at when evaluating a team is where they rush defense ranks
 
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