Week 5 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Are we 5 WEEKS into the season already!!!

Holy Smokes!

Quite a few ML Dogs hit last week. Two being UCLA & San Jose St at some big #s

Let’s Dive into Week 5 Matchups!

Who do we like?
 
I'm away from home this week so can't post too much. These are the ones that have my early interest:
Duke
Maryland
Buffalo
Virginia

A little more iffy:
Arizona State
Boston College
Georgia Tech
UNLV
Colorado St
Nebraska
 
s--k said:
I'm away from home this week so can't post too much. These are the ones that have my early interest:
Duke
Maryland
Buffalo
Virginia

A little more iffy:
Arizona State
Boston College
Georgia Tech
UNLV
Colorado St
Nebraska
Click to expand...
I like all of your top 4, not so much on the iffys. But, you have been known to pull one out of your hat. I think Press May be on to something. TCU can be run on.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Was asking about you the other day. Even searched through old threads to find the Cleveland paper you were writing for to see if you were still doing it. Bout time you made an appearance.
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I’ve just had some things going on outside of all this stuff so haven’t been able to spend much time handicapping. That said, I think CMU found a qb last week and they played a lot of young guys on D who did well. I took the points and considering the ml
 
Marsski said:
I’ve just had some things going on outside of all this stuff so haven’t been able to spend much time handicapping. That said, I think CMU found a qb last week and they played a lot of young guys on D who did well. I took the points and considering the ml
Click to expand...

agree ...watched a bit of this miami game to try to figure what was going on there, cmu looked capable. also think over is in play this week. Any thoughts on Buff or toledo ? thinking buffalo has fared much better against quality opponents than miami oh has.
 
EL CAPO said:
agree ...watched a bit of this miami game to try to figure what was going on there, cmu looked capable. also think over is in play this week. Any thoughts on Buff or toledo ? thinking buffalo has fared much better against quality opponents than miami oh has.
Click to expand...
Lean your way on Buffalo given strong showing vs PSU & Temple. Best offensive line in conference
 
Marsski said:
High variance MAC game: CMU +550
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Marsski said:
I’ve just had some things going on outside of all this stuff so haven’t been able to spend much time handicapping. That said, I think CMU found a qb last week and they played a lot of young guys on D who did well. I took the points and considering the ml
Click to expand...

Hmmmm, sounds interesting. Can't love that Western D. WM dealing with some injuries out of the Cuse game (RB Bellamy best player on team, Eskridge WR/DB impact player, TE Borske 6'6" plays in 2TE formations and RZ target). Not sure of any of those status' this week.
 
UCLA?

There is no huge talent disparity and coaching advantage goes to UCLA.
Khalil Tate always a concern with his legs
I'd argue, but not strenuously, that UCLA has better D.

UCLA it is for me for a little
 
booksbestfriend said:
I like all of your top 4, not so much on the iffys. But, you have been known to pull one out of your hat. I think Press May be on to something. TCU can be run on.
Click to expand...

Thanks for remembering some of those, it's been a while and lots of loses among those memorable big ones.

I didn't post any MLs here last week and only played one which I decided to do literally minute before kickoff.

I love this thread and thinking about which dogs can pull upsets, but honestly, the last 2 years I feel like it has forced me, or I have forced some of the ML plays because of it. Never-the-less, I like trying to find them.

Will have to look into the KU-TCU game. I haven't caught up on either team's last game yet.
 
bones said:
UCLA?

There is no huge talent disparity and coaching advantage goes to UCLA.
Khalil Tate always a concern with his legs
I'd argue, but not strenuously, that UCLA has better D.

UCLA it is for me for a little
Click to expand...

I was toying with this one as well. The stuff that happened in the Washington State game can't be expected to be duplicated....they weren't too far off from having more yards in that single game then they had in their 3 previous games, only scored 14 pts in each of first 3 weeks, and so forth. However, 1) Arizona can't be considered a strong or flawless favorite and 2) there are certainly some positives that UCLA can take from last week and gives them a pep in their step for practice and game prep probably this week.
 
s--k said:
I was toying with this one as well. The stuff that happened in the Washington State game can't be expected to be duplicated....they weren't too far off from having more yards in that single game then they had in their 3 previous games, only scored 14 pts in each of first 3 weeks, and so forth. However, 1) Arizona can't be considered a strong or flawless favorite and 2) there are certainly some positives that UCLA can take from last week and gives them a pep in their step for practice and game prep probably this week.
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The Wazzu game showed me that the team has not quit...it would have been much easier to throw in the towel. I read/heard for few weeks how team had given up on Kelly etc. Last game is evidence that this not the case
 
Maryland was dynamic as hell at home against Cuse earlier this year. Clearly PSU is much better than Cuse, but seeing hwo that team played in a big home spot against a ranked team with the crowd goin nuts...im at least taking the points, may sprinkle on the ML as well
 
I think they just tried to make the Penn State - Maryland series a rival. If it is an actual rival it would have to date back to the 80s or early 90s and I'm not familiar with it.
 
Here is something to look into, before you think I'm crazy for thinking CSU can beat Utah State, which I might be crazy...what happened last year when Utah St was a 28.5 pt favorite in Fort Collins? CSU outgained them 506-310 with a 33-18 first down advantage. CSU lost 2 turnovers (both pick-sixes by Aggie D!), Utah St lost 1 turnover. Colorado State actually beat them, well it appeared they did for a moment, CSU connected on a hailmary to Preston Williams, but he stepped out of bounds prior to catching the pass, replay overturned it Williams went nuts throwing his helmet I remember.

CSU was 3-7 at the time. Utah St did have Boise on deck the following week.

I can remember another big Colorado State upset over Utah State in Logan that I ML'd. It was the 2011 OT game, can't find what the spread was online, but I want to say it was about 2 TDs.
 
B.A.R. said:
I remember that game well
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I recall several people here were on Utah State and I mentioned at some point that week I thought CSU had a chance, but then never said anything again because everyone was so pissed at the outcome of that game and I didn't want anyone to know I had CSU. Utah State was the better team, but better team played a bad game.
 
s--k said:
Hmmmm, sounds interesting. Can't love that Western D. WM dealing with some injuries out of the Cuse game (RB Bellamy best player on team, Eskridge WR/DB impact player, TE Borske 6'6" plays in 2TE formations and RZ target). Not sure of any of those status' this week.
Click to expand...

Eskridge our for year w broken collarbone. Others listed in 2 deep for WMU.
 
Last edited:
s--k said:
I recall several people here were on Utah State and I mentioned at some point that week I thought CSU had a chance, but then never said anything again because everyone was so pissed at the outcome of that game and I didn't want anyone to know I had CSU. Utah State was the better team, but better team played a bad game.
Click to expand...

Thanks for reminding me, that one was brutal...
 
Maryland-Penn St has no rivalry history. Twerps were ACC for long time .PSU was independent or big east. Rivalry was with Pitt, and to a lesser extent, ‘cuse and West Virginia.

Don’t know why HOUSTON is dog vs No Texas,
I also like BUFFALO, but I think they are favored.
Thenks for the info on CMU.
 
bull said:
Maryland-Penn St has no rivalry history. Twerps were ACC for long time .PSU was independent or big east. Rivalry was with Pitt, and to a lesser extent, ‘cuse and West Virginia.

Don’t know why HOUSTON is dog vs No Texas,
I also like BUFFALO, but I think they are favored.
Thenks for the info on CMU.
Click to expand...
King done for year for UH.
 
I've like Kansas State all year and like them again this week. Lean to Miss State--this is the time of year when Auburn typically comes out flat--Buffalo, Maryland, Toledo.

But I prefer to take points if I can get them so I won't play any ML

Was liking Nebraska, but it's only +17 now instead of 17x
 
s--k said:
I don't see any I would call unrealistic and a couple I would like myself.

How many teams need to win in order for you to make money? I used to do 4 team round robins, but never MLs and never that many teams.
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well a 5 teamer has to hit to get in the money. I’ve only hit a 5 teamer like once or twice ever so the chances are not good. I did awful last week but I did some backtracking with some different trends to see how the dogs won last weekend. So I used some different trends (than I used last week) to pick these teams so hoping for different results. I’m going to add a 3 and 4 teamers tomorrow with these teams. Somehow I also have to figure out how and when I’m going to bake a cake for my wife’s birthday tomorrow too so it’s going to be a big day!
 
JROCK1966 said:
well a 5 teamer has to hit to get in the money. I’ve only hit a 5 teamer like once or twice ever so the chances are not good. I did awful last week but I did some backtracking with some different trends to see how the dogs won last weekend. So I used some different trends (than I used last week) to pick these teams so hoping for different results. I’m going to add a 3 and 4 teamers tomorrow with these teams. Somehow I also have to figure out how and when I’m going to bake a cake for my wife’s birthday tomorrow too so it’s going to be a big day!
Click to expand...

Go buy the cake at the store and study games instead!
 
takeit said:
Not sure about the ML, but isn't there some huge stat on home dogs on a Friday night?
Click to expand...

8/31/18 Western Mich +4.5 L
9/7/18 SMU+23 L
9/21/18 ILL+27 L
9/28/18 Tulane +14 ATS W and outright
10/5/18 LV +3.5 L
10/12/18 Tulsa +7.5 ATS W
10/19/18 UNLV +9.5 ATS W
10/26/18 BC +3.5 ATS W and outright
10/26/18 Min +2.5 ATS W and outright
10/26/18 UCLA +10.5 L
10/26/18 Col St +3 L
11/9/18 Boise +2.5 ATS W and outright
11/16/18 SMU +8 L
11/16/18 New Mexico +22 L
11/23 was day after Thanksgiving
 
s--k said:
8/31/18 Western Mich +4.5 L
9/7/18 SMU+23 L
9/21/18 ILL+27 L
9/28/18 Tulane +14 ATS W and outright
10/5/18 LV +3.5 L
10/12/18 Tulsa +7.5 ATS W
10/19/18 UNLV +9.5 ATS W
10/26/18 BC +3.5 ATS W and outright
10/26/18 Min +2.5 ATS W and outright
10/26/18 UCLA +10.5 L
10/26/18 Col St +3 L
11/9/18 Boise +2.5 ATS W and outright
11/16/18 SMU +8 L
11/16/18 New Mexico +22 L
11/23 was day after Thanksgiving
Click to expand...

Thanks! USC last week was a winner too
 
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