Week 5 ML Dogs

Have some of the same ones as you bbf
Looking more into the following
Duke
Vandy
Miss St
Va Tech
Illinois
AZ State
Wash State
Baylor
Rice
 
Here are the ones that stand out to me ...

Iowa State - Texas is a dr jekyll and mr hyde team. Never know what you are going to get. ISU at home in this spot is tough and they have playmakers at the skill spots in the throwing game. Worry for ISU would be wearing down defensively to the Texas run game if they run too many plays in the game.

Washington State - Quality team at home, USC having to fight each week, even when at home. Not sure Washington State is balanced enough to exploit the USC defense and it appears that usc may be more vulnerable to the run than to the pass.

Northwestern - I don't expect them to win but the value on them is huge based on their slow start. If they are anywhere close to showing up as the team we thought they were preseason, you are getting a lot of value. Also don't trust Wisconsin offense to be able to put anyone away that is as good as NW. Feel like the game will be in question late.

Indiana - Again, while I don't expect them to win, the value has to be there at this number. Team is good on both sides of the ball and PSU just expended a lot of emotion. Competed with Ohio State for two and a half quarters, just need to do similar here. I doubt they do but the team is a confident bunch.... they won't be intimidated at all by the environment.

Tulsa - They suck. But I think it is a huge advantage to face the option in back to back weeks. You can actually show the tape of the linebacker himself and what he did wrong and I think that can sink in better. Doubt they have another offensive stinker (so do the linesmakers) and I think the navy defense is easier to succeed against than the unm defense is. I tend to think Navy is overrated right now in general. That said, Tulsa just got dominated by an option team.

UCONN - Again, this is a lot of points to be laying for SMU and that also means it is a lot of ML on uconn. And if you can say you would be completely shocked by a uconn win, you see things differently than i do. There isn't much talent difference here. Also feel like uconn is a team that will improve a lot as the season goes, particularly offensively, though there is clearly more room for improvement defensively. If uconn is a no show they could get run out of the stadium though.

Miss State - Just not convinced on Auburn just yet. Not sure what either team is yet which makes me think there is a chance for msu here.

MTSU - better healthy team dogged. Injuries matter here though. fau getting tons of love most weeks.

Charlotte - FIU is a bad favorite.

VT - huge HFA and not sure the teams aren't fairly even in that scenario. Line is basically saying Clemson would be a two td favorite at home??

Memphis - Shrug. On the record here. I think they are a better football team than UCF. We finally get to see what UCF is, I think, one way or the other.


Colorado - Why? The UCLA defense which is about as good as a condom with a hole in it.

NIU - Team is going to fight hard the whole way in what will likely be a game with few plays in it. Thought the team should have beaten BC.
 
I only look towards dogs getting good odds so, +6 and higher, so on a Monday here is what jumped out at me:

Northwestern +499 - they've won 2 of the last 3. UW hasn't played anyone with a pulse on O and NW didn't start the year right, they have very good potential on O. While NW D can be of concern, Wis has some history of limited O output (last year only scored 21 on NW and 17 on Iowa and 23 on Neb). So both teams off a bye, this has the makings of a good game I would assume.

Mississippi St +309 - also won 2 of last 3. Not sure Auburn is all that great vs teams their own size, great at beating up on bad teams though. This game was ugly last year, although think MSU has grown good bit since then. Feel Miss St is better than last week, maybe not as good as they showed vs LSU, but after facing Georgia O, taking on Auburn not as bad IMO.

Ball St +??? - lot of respect for WM, they are still very good in most aspects. Think this Ball St team a bit underrated no matter who is at QB for them.

Troy +789 - Troy is probably the 2nd best team LSU has played and considering the competition not much to like about what LSU has fielded so far. Am concerned Troy isn't turning out to be who they were supposed to be.

North Texas +293 - Tried NTex on ML already and failed. I think SMiss is vulnerable and I saw alot of what I liked when NT played Iowa, that is what I thought I was getting the week prior when I took them vs SMU.

South Carolina +321 - Nothing except this just seems like it could be a wild and crazy game

Virginia Tech +242 - Thinking about how Clem D dominated Auburn, yet that was still just a 1 possession game. Think VT may be better than Auburn.

Nevada +344 - I know Nevada is bad...but so is Fresno.

Colorado +222 - Think Buffs are the better team and outside of Rosen, for all other players on the field, I don't think it is close at all who the better team is. Montez may not be Rosen, but he isn't bad and I tend to give Buffs nod in just about all other categories.
 
Aggies are schizo. SoCar definitely worth a look. And agree on Iowa State. Texas hasn't played well there in a long time, very tough (night) environment, Matt Campbell can coach, as noted above you can't be sure what you're getting (yet) with Herman. This game could easily go down to the wire.
 
The mounting injuries Re a concern for the Gamecocks. That is what happens when you don't have as many guys to rotate into the game.
 
About VPI, I have to point out that they've played just one team with a pulse (West Virginia), and they allowed 592 yards in that game.
 
Want to play Va Tech but may just stay with the points
Have narrowed it down to the following plays
Miss St +10 and ML+275
Colorado +7 and ML+235
Tx Tech +10 and ML+290

Playing points same one unit but smaller on ML
Baylor +17 and ML +525
NWestern +15 and ML+475
NMSU +17 and ML+535
Rice +21 and ML+800

Tailing s-k on Troy and ML

Considering Cal, Vandy, Wash St, Duke
 
Should've had one vs Texas A&M, went right through defenders hands and into Bruin receivers hands for TD. No way to remember all the good and bad throws he may've made. More better than bad for certain though.

Saying that about no home INTs at home since Oct 2015 is only 8 games though. Still pretty nice to not throw a pick in those games 8 though.

We all know some INTs are on the receiver, some are on the QB and some are bad luck. Like one of Rosen's vs Memphis at the goal line, not sure if they said post game, but I would bet the receiver cut in when he was supposed to go out - not Rosen't fault. And with Montez, one of those picks he had last week went right off both hands of his receiver. Not his fault.

Anyway, no point in arguing if Rosen is better than Montez because that is a big yes for Rosen. UCLA doesn't do anything on D to make me fear them however, and I tend to think CU O should be fine. Will CU D make enough plays to win, maybe...maybe not.
 
s--k said:
Should've had one vs Texas A&M, went right through defenders hands and into Bruin receivers hands for TD. No way to remember all the good and bad throws he may've made. More better than bad for certain though.

Saying that about no home INTs at home since Oct 2015 is only 8 games though. Still pretty nice to not throw a pick in those games 8 though.

We all know some INTs are on the receiver, some are on the QB and some are bad luck. Like one of Rosen's vs Memphis at the goal line, not sure if they said post game, but I would bet the receiver cut in when he was supposed to go out - not Rosen't fault. And with Montez, one of those picks he had last week went right off both hands of his receiver. Not his fault.

Anyway, no point in arguing if Rosen is better than Montez because that is a big yes for Rosen. UCLA doesn't do anything on D to make me fear them however, and I tend to think CU O should be fine. Will CU D make enough plays to win, maybe...maybe not.
Click to expand...
I just hit CU +7. May take a stab at ML but for now I really like those points. CU hasn't regressed as much as I thought this year and they play will a hell of lot more effort than UCLA. I think the CU defense is much better than UCLA's and I see this coming down to a FG at the end.
 
B.A.R. said:
Northwestern is a very sneaky good one this week value-wise...

Great thoughts already in here (as always)
Click to expand...

Very tough to try and get it right when picking UW to lose straight up in these games, Badgers have only been upset as a fav 5 times the last 3 years, BUT two of those times were vs Northwestern (+10 and +7.5). Now that will certainly have their attention this week, but honestly, UW is going to be dialed in for a league game off a bye regardless of past history.

Also of note, just showing the potential vulnerability here, remember the Minnesota at Wisconsin game last year? Badgers were heavy favorites, but trailed 17-7 HT and 17-10 entering the 4th. Leidner and Gophers just imploded with turnovers and lack of O in the 4th qrt. Credit to UW, that is part of what makes them so hard to beat, they rise up and make plays they have to. Just saying looking back, plenty of games where Badgers didn't play like world beaters, often they are good enough to win still. Good thing NW and some players on that team can go into Camp Randall with confidence of having beaten UW before.

Does anyone know what a summer GOY line was on this game?
 
s--k said:
Does anyone know what a summer GOY line was on this game?
Click to expand...

I still have my GOY sheets from South Point, Westgate and Golden Nugget and just checked. Doesn't look like any of them offered a line on that game this year. Not sure about offshore; I'm sure 5D had a line but couldn't tell you what it was.
 
EFC1878 said:
I still have my GOY sheets from South Point, Westgate and Golden Nugget and just checked. Doesn't look like any of them offered a line on that game this year. Not sure about offshore; I'm sure 5D had a line but couldn't tell you what it was.
Click to expand...

Thank you, I was able to search for 5dimes goy and found something.

Surprised they had it at 13.5, thought the high preseason opinion of NW would have it lower, and recent historical averages dating back to 2013 in those 4 games the line has never been higher than 10, UW is 2-2 SU and ATS. But then again Wisconsin is living up and possibly surpassing preseason opinions, NW has not, still the line is about what they had in August.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/story.cfm/story/1872931
 
Regarding Baylor WR Chris Platt is out for the year, that is a very big loss. He had been one of the few bright spots on that team. I imagine it significantly changes how opposing Ds can scheme against them. They still have a nice target in Mims, but now Mims will be the focus of attention.
 
Look back at recent Northwestern vs Wisconsin games

2016 #8 Wisconsin (6-2) at Northwestern (4-4) 6 / 41.5

UW wins 21-7

Both teams punt on opening possession, but moved it on their second...UW missed a 35y FG and NW 4th-and-1 SOD at W34. More punts, in the 2nd qrt UW went 7p 34y for a 40y FG...3-0. NW punted then UW had a 46y Jazz Peavy TD run...10-0. Right before HT, NW drove 8p 87y in 1:02m converting a 3rd and a 4th down for TD...10-7. HT yardage was UW 241, NW 178. Both teams punted to open the 3rd qrt, but UW downed their punt at the N2...NW went 3-and-out and UW was set up at the N32 after a good return. 7p 22y later UW kicked a 28y FG. 13-7. After another NW punt, UW drove 11p 50y, but missed a 51y FG. In the 4th now, NW drove to the UW 19 with a 1st down, but a penalty moved them back, then a sack/fumble ended the drive. After a 22y fumbled return, UW went 9p 45y got a TD and a 2-pt...21-7. NW's last 3 drives ended in SOD at N41, punt (from N6) and SOD at N44. UW kept punting it back as well keeping Cats pinned deep.

Wisconsin had 20-14 FD edge, but total yards fairly even at 333-316 (4.5-4.2 ypp). Badgers did out rush them 190-39, but only 3.3 ypc for UW (Clement 32 att for 106)(Jackson 13 att for 42). Hornibrook 11-19-92-0-0, Bart Houston played as well 2-3-51-0-0. Thorson 28-52-277-1-0, sacked 2x and hurried 8x. Carr caught 12-132-TD. Just 1 turnover in the game. 37-28% 3rd down conv for UW.

2015 #20 Northwestern (8-2) at #21 Wisconsin (8-2) 12.5 / 41.5

NW wins 13-7

Cold. Defense controlled action. UW QB Stave was hurried and INT'd at Badger 19 setting up NW for 3 Jackson runs and a short TD "drive"...7-0. UW was driving ,but fumbled at the NW39...NW then missed a 27y FG. Next 5 drives were punts. NW drove 8p 63y for a 35y FG with :00 left. 10-0. NW opened the 3rd SOD 4th-and-1 at the UW 35. UW would go 5p 64y for TD featuring a 42y Peavy reception...10-7. In the 4th now NW missed a 40y FG. UW was near midfield, but on 1st down Stave was sacked/fumbled and NW recovered, but had to punt. Stave was then INT'd at the UW 20. After moving the ball to the 8, penalty moved them back and they kicked a 37y FG. 13-7. Punts. With 1:37 left UW had the ball on their own 26. In 7 plays UW would be at the 1. A pass to Fumagalli over the middle was ruled a TD, but replay showed he was down at the 1. Next play UW thought they had a TD pass to Peavy, but replay showed when he hit the ground and rolled out of bounds the ball moved..he had taken a few steps first. Controversially replay overturned the TD (did not complete process of catch). Stave was then sacked for 10y loss (injured), clock running they had to spike the ball...:06 left. On 4th down a Bart Houston pass was incomplete in the EZ with :02 left.

UW had 14-12 FG edge and yards were even 209-203 (3.0-3.3 ypp). UW was held to minus 26 rushing yards...Stave was sacked 5x, Clement led 10 att 24y w/ TD. Stave 20-34-229-0-2int. Thorson was just 9-20-60-0-0, sacked once. NW's Jackson ran 35 for 129 w/ TD. UW 35-15% 3rd down. NW missed 2 FGs, UW lost 3 fumbles.

2014 #17 Wisconsin (3-1) at Northwestern (2-2) 7.5 / 48

Northwestern wins 20-14

No recap.

NW 22-19 FD, but UW 422-385 TY (6.4-5.1 ypp). Badgers ran for 284 (Gordon 259) to Cats 203 (Jackson 162). UW QBs went 12-29-138-TD-4int, sacked once - Siemian 15-29-182-TD-0, sacked 3x. NW downed 4 punts inside the 20. UW missed a 50y FG. Both of NW's FGs were kicked from the 5 yard line. 33-31% 3rd down conversions about the same. UW threw 2 INTs inside RZ, another INT set NW up for 16y TD "drive".
 
Hulu said:
I'll be on Iowa St, Colorado and a short one with Bowling Green +115
Click to expand...

I watched that entire Iowa game and just recall being very impressed with ISU and Matt Campbell - some decent skill guys, team played really hard and was really well coached. They should have won that game. But part of a team maturing is sealing the deal.

I can't run fast enough from this game but won't be surprised at all if it's decided on a last possession.
 
Anyone have a read on Mid TN St since the loss of Stockstill? I imagine he will be out once again. The last I read, he has a cracked sternum. I see they are getting points this week at FAU. Does the backup have any grasp of the "O"?
 
One of my parlays for the week....2, 3, 4, & 5 team round-robin parlays with these teams and MLs:

Kent State +250 FG
Nevada +270 FG
Tennessee +255 FG
Temple +415 FG
Washington State +170 FG

Risking $52.00 (26 parlays at $2.00) To Win $4,288.38

:barman::asskiss::beerdrink::biggestfan::cokeline::doh2:
 
JROCK1966 said:
One of my parlays for the week....2, 3, 4, & 5 team round-robin parlays with these teams and MLs:

Kent State +250 FG
Nevada +270 FG
Tennessee +255 FG
Temple +415 FG
Washington State +170 FG

Risking $52.00 (26 parlays at $2.00) To Win $4,288.38

:barman::asskiss::beerdrink::biggestfan::cokeline::doh2:
Click to expand...
I'm substituting EMU 1st Half in place of Wazzou on Saturday morning when the 1st half lines come out....along with the others of course.
 
Troy at LSU or New Mexico State at Arkansas?

Sun Belt vs SEC last 4+ years...2-38 SU, 18-21-1 ATS. That range of years doesn’t include some other memorable upsets, like ULM beating Arkansas and Alabama, and some wins came vs current SEC teams who were then in the Big Xll, like Ark St beating aTm or Troy beating Missouri. Or some former Sun Belt members, like WKU beating UK.

Last 4+ years:

App St
2017 at Georgia 10-31 +14
2016 at Tenn 13-20 +20’
2013 at Georgia 6-45 +40

Ark St
2016 at Auburn 14-51 +20
2015 vs Missouri 20-27 +10’
2014 at Tennessee 19-34 +16
2013 at Auburn 9-38 +10’

Georgia Southern
2017 at Auburn 7-41 +34
2016 at Ole Miss 27-37 +28
2015 at Georgia 17-23 OT +13’
2013 at Florida 26-20 +28

Georgia State
2013 at Alabama 3-45 +54’

Idaho
2015 at Auburn 34-56 +34
2013 at Ole Miss 14-59 +41’

New Mexico State
2016 at Kentucky 42-62 +21’
2016 at Texas A&M 10-52 +44
2015 at Florida 13-61 +35’
2015 at Ole Miss 3-52 +45
2014 at LSU 7-63 +42’

South Alabama
2017 at Ole Miss 27-47 +23’
2016 at Miss St 21-20 +28
2014 vs Miss St 3-35 +13’
2014 at South Carolina 12-37 +24
2013 at Tennessee 24-31 +16’

Texas State
2016 at Arkansas 3-42 +30’

Troy
2015 at Miss St 17-45 +30’
2014 at Georgia 0-66 +41
2013 at Miss St 7-62 +13’
2013 at Ole Miss 21-51 +28

ULL
2017 at Texas A&M 21-45 +23’
2016 at Georgia 21-35 +23
2015 at Kentucky 33-40 +17
2014 at Ole Miss 15-56 +27’
2013 at Arkansas 14-34 +10

ULM
2016 at Auburn 7-58 +33
2015 at Georgia 14-51 +35
2015 at Alabama 0-34 +38
2014 at LSU 0-31 +30’
2014 at Kentucky 14-48 +21
2014 at Texas A&M 16-21 +34’
 
If Troy was playing at a higher level I would have more faith in taking them. They played a very poor offensive game at Boise, jumped out fast vs NM St and Akron, but slowed and allowed both those teams to come back from double digits. Troy is 128th in penalty yards per game (98.5). They have some good D stats, but that is a product of some below average Os they've played. The Troy O is avg almost 10 ppg less than they avg last season, that was not anticipated or expected. The OL has allowed some pressure to get through and it has effected Silvers.

LSU on the other hand, who the hell are they? While they led Syracuse 21-3 in the opening minutes of the 3rd qrt...Cuse cut it to just trail by 2 26-28 with 5m left in the game. Read a stat that Pro Football Focus said Cuse got pressure on 11 of 27 LSU pass plays (only blitzed 4x on those plays) - season bests by far for the Orange. Cuse had 6 more first downs, but 30 less yards in a much more competitive game than many would've expected. LSU no longer has the significant advantages at the LOS they once owned. The passing game doesn't scare anyone...Guice's health is in question...I don't know about that LSU team. LSU isn't much better in the penalty department than Troy, Tigers rank last in the SEC in pen yards pg. Trip to Florida on deck FWIW.
 
thanks s-k, have the points and glad I only have small ML on Troy
the first two weeks there were more larger spread dog winners but as the lines tighten it is the under 17 point dogs that seem to have a chance
still think ML on Troy possible as not believing LSU has their act together
I tend to look at several major factors in picking a dog to win

home field dog and prime time exposure
statement game ie means more to the underdog to win and the favorite just another win
also coaching statement to have big upset and good season to move up to next level job
rivalry or teams in same geographical area, recruit similar players so underdog has motivation to get back at blue chippers
schedule issues, look ahead or off a big win or bad loss, motivational factors etc
high ranked teams or betting favorites in disarray

Troy would have 3 of those in their favor imo
 
Last edited:
Illinois has a lot of those factors in their favor
Think Duke has some too and Wash St statement and prime time and home field
On Saturday some I am still looking into
 
New Mexico State is a team I have been liking this year, 3-0 on them with one ML win as well. They have a very mature offense and have got over 6ypp in every game this year...the 6.21 ypp avg puts them on par with teams like Wash St and Notre Dame. QB Rogers is #1 Sun Belt ypg passing with 12-4 ratio. They are scoring a TD more per game than they averaged last year. RB Rose is a nice all purpose back for them and WR Scott is leading Sun Belt in ypg. Last year at Kentucky they put up 500y and 42 pts.

The D has 12 sacks through 4 games, they had 12 all of last year. Ark does have some protection issues at times. While NMSt pressure and their TFL numbers are good, the D is still a liability facing a team like Arkansas. They will not stop Arkansas, certainly not with any consistency. So they will need to force turnovers. They are +3 TO margin on the year, but vs their other P5 team Arz St they were -2. Arkansas generally doesn't lose it a bunch, just 1 per game so far this year. Hog passing game is struggling and just lost one of their top WRs for the year. At any rate, an improving, but still below average Sun Belt D can't be expected to win this game unless Arkansas helps them alot.

Like LSU, Arkansas is kind of mysterious to me...they are just kind of average. SEC average is better than Sun Belt above average every day of the week, but they do seem like a vulnerable big favorite though. Still pretty long shot for NMSt to do it. Could be a good over look though.
 
Statement games can also mean "turn the season around" type wins too
Baylor could surely use that but agree with WR out long shot
NMSU would be huge statement game but not many other factors though they have momentum and confidence way above usual and Ark in between big game and SEC play
Miss St more rivalry but don't like the other variables as much as I did at first glance so leaning off that one some
Va Tech sure has some good factors just think Clemson and coaching and experience a little much for ML but will try points
NWestern has the rivalry and the recent win history just not sure which team NW team we will get but still on points and ML small
Tx Tech has lots of factors in their favor just don't think their D is near as good as TCU so playing very small ML and points
Like Rice for some crazy reason
Tried to like Tenn vs UGA but can't find it so on UGA
Like aTm continuing 2nd half winning #s
Still going with points and ML on the following -
Illinois
Duke
Wash St
Baylor
NMSU
Troy
Colorado
NWestern
Considering Rice, No Ill, Cal, Miss St, Va Tech
 
good stuff s-k
think Ark is definitely a team in the disarray category
coach questions, who are they?, off a tough loss, rough schedule ahead, probably underestimate NMSU
They fit the betting favorite and NMSU win would be statement and highlight of year so 3 out of 5
Which teams are trending up and which down would fit this too
 
Good stuff.

If you have a chance to shed some light on your concerns about potential Miss St play? I have my own nervousness, but have not considered it much detail yet. Auburn D is going to be tough. Think Miss St should matchup good with Auburn O. Game where field position will potentially play a bigger than normal role.
 
some of these underdog wins are huge for coaches too
I imagine some aim to pull off a big upset on top of a good season to cash up to the next level so extra preparation for certain games where other team is looking ahead
As for Miss St it is really Auburn defense that has me concerned
I think lines get inflated and remain so for a few weeks and Miss St win over LSU was impressive but LSU not that good as Auburn and game was still pretty close way into 3rd Qtr so misleading final score
I think Georgia is really good so that offset some but Auburn D good and their QB is more mature and learning system so more week to week improvement likely.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Anyone have a read on Mid TN St since the loss of Stockstill? I imagine he will be out once again. The last I read, he has a cracked sternum. I see they are getting points this week at FAU. Does the backup have any grasp of the "O"?
Click to expand...

Wish I could offer something up, but I haven't seen them since week 2 so all I could do is read stories online.
 
Was thinking back about the NW - Duke game, clearly it is concerning going into a potential NW play tomorrow at Wisconsin.

I rewatched some of that game and I think the pass protection is a problem. NW TE/Superbacks and RBs did not pick up edge blitz pressure, Thorson was sacked 2x on 3rd down in the 1st qrt (and later sacked on 3rd down in the 2nd as well). But watching that 1st qrt there was no foreshadowing of the blowout that game would become. NW had a few good chunk plays on O, got on the board first 3-0, but those two sacks ended drives. Jones threw a bad pass that NW picked off, then later Jones threw another INT (off a deflection) in the RZ, but NW was called for targeting and it took away the INT. I think the call was questionable, but it could've went either way, that is how they call the game so Fitz didn't take issue with it postgame. But the big thing was NW was already without a starting CB McShepard, who was in line to start because Trae Williams wasn't 100% (another CB Alzano May also not 100% and another reserve Bullock was out). In their absence they shifted starting S Queiro to the starting CB spot and that moved reserve McGee up to starting S and that is who was ejected.

So now they had a S out of position at CB and were essentially utilizing a 3rd teamer at one of the S spots following the ejection. With projected starter Keith Watkins lost for the season prior to the year, grad transfer walk-on (from an NAIA school) Moe Almasri was in line to get playing time, it was speculated he could've started leading up to the game prior to shifting Queiro over. In short that secondary was an absolute mess and Duke's Daniel Jones had his best game of the year. Healthier now 3 weeks later (McShepard is back, Williams is back starting and Queiro is back at S) but still a clear and vulnerable weakness beyond their first 3 CBs and 3 S players it is scary.
 
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