Week 5 in the FCS

Took like a dozen dogs. Only fav -pts I took was Tenn Tech-28.5. Took a couple fav MLs. All these fav lines are high. Had to take pts with a lot of the dogs


W&M+9.5, 8.5
San Diego+5.5
Princeton+12
Morehead+24.5 (holding nose)
Stone hill+5.5
Penn+14.5
CCSU+10.5
SHU+7.5
Sanford+13.5
ETSU+5.5
Southern Utah+3.5

Before I went to bed I took all favorites
Yale
Austin Peay
Harvard
Elon

MLs:
SEMO
WCU
SB
Norfolk
Butler
 
what did UC Davis and SacSt open at? First I saw was 17,5 and 14,5
 
Not sure on Montana-Idaho but wanted several Big Sky favorites, they just made lines so high..UCD, Sac, MontSt, NAU…
 
Pretty much every favorite I wanted I either had to jump high for or I stayed off. Some of those dogs I would’ve rather had the fav at considerably lower spreads but it is what is, will look for movement and more plays of course. I did take a handful of totals. Your Lamar-UCA one sounded good so I took it at a slightly worse number.
 
Still would like to think further about more games, some I have taken and some I have not.

Howard at Richmond - I did not take anything here. Howard played an outstanding game against their huge rival in the 34-14 win vs Hampton (led 34-0). Hampton is weak this year however. And Howard really has not done much of anything else of note, beat a down FAMU team in the Orange Blossom Classic as an 8 pt dog. FAMU led 9-7 and Howard kicked the game winner as time expired. Ugly game by not very good teams. Blown out vs Temple and beat Morehouse. Richmond has played great D all year...held Lehigh to 298y in the opener when Lehigh has averaged 435.6 in their other 3 games. Everyone has a good D vs Wofford. UNC did have their best game with their limited offense, but the Tar Heel O only generated 34pts as the D scored on a 62y fum ret TD and last week they held VMI down the same way Navy did. So all good for Richmond D and I would assume that continues vs Howard. Richmond O finally came alive vs VMI. Guess I would assume this game resembles the Richmond - VMI game where Richmond scores in the mid to upper 30s and Howard scores about 10. So maybe I should consider laying it with Richmond? I really don't know if Howard is much better than VMI so if that is the case then this line is still low. Might not be accurate to do this for 2024 games, but Howard lost by 17 at Prinecton -14 last year and Princeton was bad. I singled out that game becasue it was the only other 'usually good' non-HBCU Howard played.

South Dakota at North Dakota State. Kind of a shame from a fan and entertainment perspective for this game that USD is not as good this year. The only good game USD has played was vs Drake and that is Drake so can't really take all that much from them beating up on them. The Northern Colorado performance was very alarming and sure, it appears like UNC has some fight and grit so far this year. But still, it's the things that USD is not doing well that are most concerning. It's their veteran QB Bouman not playing well and frankly having not the best targets to throw to. It's the turnovers at Lamar. It's the D allowed Northern Colorado 427 ttl yards (5.9ypp). That kind of O production out of them is extremely rare and previously they only did so vs the worst Big Sky Ds. That is not what USD is supposed to be compared to. So this game is going to be rough for them. I do think that NDSU might not be quite as good as everyone is making them out to be at this point. Just consider they beat up on The Citadel and Tennessee State. Ok, and? Those are bad teams this year. Now, the SEMO game, NDSU did not cover the 31.5, but do feel like they could have and probably should have. SEMO did about as good as they could, 1 big play for a TD and then a good drive for their other TD, but Bison shut them down completely in the 2H...and NDSU 'only' scored 41 pts on 562 yards of O. USD has won 2 of the last 3 which I'm sure isn't lost on anyone in Fargo. 2023 NDSU was -18 at home week 5, off a bye, when USD beat them 24-19. Then NDSU avenged that loss in the playoffs as a 6pt road fav 45-17 with a 416-298 yard edge. And then USD got them in the regular ssn finale last year with :12 to go as Yotes scored 2 TDs in final 4 minutes to win 29-28. Definitely think NDSU would be the way to go if you had to play it with some of the history how some of those games went and the current make up of the rosters right now. 21.5 doesn't feel like a great number to lay though, highest spread in the series since 2018 and 2019 when USD had back-to-back losing seasons.

Utah Tech at Austin Peay - I did bet Austin Peay at the open. Been kind of cheering for this Utah Tech just because it's my nature to enjoy seeing once bad teams improve. They are 4-0 ATS with 3 covers coming against 2024 playoff teams although some of those games are a little suspect. The Davis game, it was their advantage to have a gameplan completely outside of anyting that UC Davis had seen on tape from the prior year and it took Davis some time to adjust. And Davis was likely still thinking about Mercer game week 0. +19 Utah Tech led 24-7 in the 3Q, but Davis came back to win 31-24 and Davis outgained them 417-353 (5.6-4.8). Then Utah Tech appears to have played a strong game at NAU, wich Utah Tech did start the game well. But NAU led 24-7 and 38-17 before Utah Tech got 128 of their 294 ttl yards in garbage time and NAU outgained them by nearly 100y, only winning 38-31 as 20pt fav. Idaho outgained them 402-247 (5.7-.4.6) which would suggest a pretty comfortable win, not exactly, 20-6 Vandals as 19pt favs. It was a lot of long drives for Idaho that ended in made or missed FGs (Idaho had the ball for 14min in the 1Q but had 0 pts, just weird). Last week, this was the game that Utah Tech would earn and win. They outgained UNI 349-207 (4.8-3.7). UNI showed to be a little weaker than the result vs E Wash might've shown on the surface and it proved out here. UNI only had one drive over 30y all game! Utah Tech's D didn't limit anyone else in that way (everyone else gained 5.7ypp on them). Both teams were awful in the RZ, a combined 1 TD on 6 trips! Utah Tech just bled the hell out of the clock in the 4Q and their QB Graff ran the shit out of the ball. They actually have a pretty bad passing O, play 2 QBs one mostly runs one mostly doesn't. I just do not see them getting any kind of carryover in terms of that kind of performance vs Austin Peay. I am not going to hold it against AP that they lost at ACU and that ACU actually led 31-3 vs them. ACU is showing to be a pretty good team in how they have played so far this year. Before that, AP looked like a pretty good team. Dominated MSTU week 1, were not embarrased at Georgia and then waxed a Pioneer team. Maybe the fact they hadn't been challened vs another good FCS team created some fallacies within the team, maybe they didn't prepare right, maybe they thought they were better than they are. I don't know, but I tend to think they are still pretty good. We can call it garbage time, but they did flip a swich vs ACU after starting extremely slow (61y F4 poss with 2 punts, fum own 4 yard line and missed FG AC28) to scoring 4 straight TDs to end the game. And ACU did have 2 TDs off a combined 26y of O following AP TOs. And...it's not like ACU ran on them, QB Earle was their leading rusher wiht just 46y, as a team ACU ran for 93y (3.2). AP had 7 TFLs and while they had 0 sacks, they did have 10 QB pressures. Doubtful that Utah Tech's passing game is going to be anything close to as efficient or good in escaping pressure as the ACU QB was. So this is a big game for AP. For themselves after being humbled last week, for their UAC and playoff aspirations and I think they bring the A game this week and the results of last week creates some value on the spread. S&P+ had this game been played last week would've called for a 24.5 margin of victory. This week with the adjustment (or over adjustments) of last week's results is only calling for a 16.1 margin. Respect to Utah Tech in how they are playing this year compared to last, but AP looked and felt like a playoff team the first 3 weeks of the season and I will bet that is who shows up this week.
 
Hampton at Elon - I did also take Elon last night. I would've preferred less than 2 TDs, but I rationalized by saying atleast it is less than 17. Elon was cruising right along and then they played a good D at ETSU and struggled. They will enjoy playing this Hampton D that just allowed Howard to explode for 456y (7.2) and 34 pts and before that even though they were good vs A&T for most of the game, just the fact that they allowed A&T to score 10pts in about 2minutes and then lose in OT to them...I think that is the kind of loss that can have tentacles for the rest of the year. But back to the poor Hampton D...allowed Elizabeth City 20 1H pts? And Jackson of course tore them a new one with 8.8ypc on 32 runs and 426y (6.9ypp) overall. I forget why JSU only managed 28 pts in that one. But anyway, what was a pretty good CAA D last year, is not this year. And it's not like their O is picking up the slack, new transfer QB Freeman can make plays sometimes, but he's been very quiet in a couple games as well...including their biggest game of the season last week. Pretty bad Hampton team. They have lost several good players and the replacements have not been adequte. This year's Elon team competed offensively better at Duke than last year's did (17 pts this year vs 3 last year and double the total yardage). And they put up great numbers on bad Ds vs Davidson and Western Carolina...last year Elon only scored 17 on WCU, this year they scored 55! New QB rFr Clark has been real good, new OC, new WR coach - all positive improvements for Elon this year. Elon had 4 FCS games last year they failed to score 20 pts and below 300 ttl yards. Hampton beat them last year! Elon was -7 at Hampton and led 21-20 3Q and Hampton scored the final 21. Hampton ran all over them and Elon couldn't run. That isn't going to happen like that this year. Elon is better Hampton is worse and the CAA opener for Pheonix and surely Elon remembers how last year's game went. Hampton might still be remembering their last 2 games more, how they let lowly A&T beat them and Howard humble them.
 
Just a few things here on these 3:00 games....

Mercyhurst at South Dakota State - Mercyhurst been playing tough, covered at YSU, really blew out New Haven, appeared like they would cover vs Sac State until the very end and then last week was just a wow. Montana State beat them just 17-0 when last year Cats won 52-13! MSU couldn't get them off the field! MH went for 4th down 7x and converted 4...each team only had 3 possessions per half. MSU did lead 17-0 at HT, but didn't score at all 2H. NO explosive big plays for Cats either vs this MH D. So there might be a story there on this MSU team, but still, good look for MH. Only outgained by 91y, last year were outgained by 269! With that said, I don't want to take them against SDSU. SDSU is better and this will be MH's 4th game vs Big Sky/MVFC type team, I would assume that leads to some bumps and bruises maybe taking some kind of toll. But not interested in laying it either. Respect MH QB Urena and their system overall. SDSU did have their "WTF" game as well vs Drake, only won 37-21 as 30.5 pt favs. This is just not a game I have any kind of read on.

Alabama State at Florida A&M - I would've like to have taken ASU here, but laying 7.5 on the open, or whatever, 7.5 was the first I saw? That is strong. Not saying it isn't justified, ASU has looked really good and FAMU certainly has not. Just too high a price to pay and all the unaccoutable variables that can happen in a game, have to pass....maayyybbbee I would ML ASU even though the risk still feels I shouldn't have to. But it's just a reflection how far FAMU has fallen really. FAMU won 28-13 as 7pt raod fav at or at neutral last year vs ASU. But QB Body DNP for ASU in that one and FAMU atleast had a QB, which they don't appear to have much of one right now. Just passing still.

Alabama A&M at Bethune Cookman - This is another one I have to pass on. Would've like AAM, even though not sure of QB Brown's status. But just can't lay that number at BC and no interest in playing BC. AAM won 56-12 as 3.5 pt home fav last year. Think it was at their place, these HBCUs play so many neutral site games hard to keep up. Actually, I'm almost baited into considering taking BC here, especially if Brown is hobbled at all (it was Lankford at QB for AAM vs BC last year not Brown anyway). Last year's result not withstanding, I don't think that AAM has the kind of SWAC D that just totally shuts teams down. ASU does, or did last year, but AAM has been a lower tier SWAC D. And BC might be on the uptick a little actually. They were at large disadvantages the in all their games this year before the Dll win last week, but there might be some positives to take away from some of those games here and there. And hey, even last week, not like I know shit about Edward Waters, but some of the PRs thought that BC might lose to them. They didn't lose, they won big! I don't know, this could be one of those screwy SWAC upsets. I might be talking myself into it actually. BC has some good WRs who have produced this year, QB Ransom has played a lot. I'm definitely thinking more about taking BC when that is not what I thought I felt before I started typing.

Idaho State at Northern Colorado - I just don't know on this one. Idaho State D has been so bad, I had thought the new D coaches that Hawkins brought in with some of the transfers would change things and...maybe it has - didn't play all that bad at New Mexico, but were as bad as ever at Southern Utah. Definitely thought with Cooke at QB and maybe even just a slightly improved D, just a little, they could bump from 5-7 to 6-6 or maybe even 7-5 if it went splendidly. Now here I am questioning if they can even beat Northern Colorado! Nothern Colorado did play tough the first few games of last year, but without anything to show for it they folded. This year they finally bagged a Dl win that the other team didn't throw away. Played good enough to beat both CSU and USD, hell when is the last time UNC had two games vs superior teams like that? And if the ISU D is still a little shakey, is this another opportunity for them to play well and perhaps even win? This is a game I just need to 100% stay off of because I really do not know. UNC's play has just confused the situation to the point that I don't know what to expect.
 
They are going to be a 30 pt favorite in every game the rest of the season except for Kentucky

No wonder they are moving to the Socon

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Furman at Samford - this is one I did not expect to be on Samford as I have been shit talking them since before the first game. But at +13.5 I was almost like, ok, if they are going to put up that line somebody needs to step up and take it. Furman road favored here? Sure. By nearly 2 TDs? What has Furman done this year to justify that kind of line? Lost to Presbyterian? PC ran for 5.8ypc on them. Beat Campbell by 4pts with even yardage? Campbell had their most efficient passing game of the year vs FU. Beat W&M with no offensive drive longer than 44y? FU was outgained 237-352 (3.7-5.3) We all know that Samford is a bad football team. They do still move the ball, last two FCS games - 576y (6.5) at WCU and 452 (4.8) vs Citadel; and when they aren't turning it over, they can actually score. Samford was +11.5 AT WCU, now they are +13.5 HOME vs Furman? This game was canceled last year due to hurricane flooding aftermath and any prior meetings aren't helpful in comparison. One of the games that I would much rather have Furman at a cheap price, but I'm content with the +13.5 on principle win or lose.

Western Carolina at Campbell - Wanted WCU and best way I figured was the ML as the D is just so hard to trust laying pts. Not for the weak hearted still. Last year in week 2 Campbell got pressure on then WCU QB Gonzales and they forced him into lots forced throws, bad reads and and INTs. WCU actually did not score an offensive TD! Campbell D was terrible last year vs anyone not named NC A&T, it doesn't look any better this year and I can't believe that this team is going to pull that off vs Kerwin Bell's O again. Campbell's O made huge catches over and over to keep drives going on 3rd and sometimes 4th down. Different QB for them, some different WRs, although King is outstanding. Running game isn't great. Just not a great Campbell team and WCU when their O is clicking, they are pretty great.

William & Mary at Villanova. Also took W&M as the dog line for them jumped out to me. Nothing against Villanova, they're fine, expect them to be a good CAA team. Nova was tied with Colgate 17-17 3Q before winning 24-17 as 19.5pt home fav. Monmouth O is a well oiled machine and last week Villanova D was no match. Monmouth more known for the passing capabilities, but they ran for 240y (5.3) on them which is worth an eyebrow raise. W&M should've beat Furman (+115y gave up pick-six and 75y KO ret leading to a short score), but they could've, maybe should've lost to Maine, never led until final 3min of the game. There was a lot of new on this W&M team that should improve the more games they play and I don't figure Villanova to be substantially better. These 2 haven't played for 2 years. Expect Villanova to win, but also expect a competitive game and +9.5 and 8.5 was too much, obviously most everyone agreed as it sits at 6.5 currently.

NC A&T at Maine - Not interested in much here. Maine played their FBS and the W&M games pretty tough in spots, especially 1Hs. Then they played awful and let a receiver get behind them vs Stonehill on 4th-21 and they lost! Maine has been able to run, but the passing game is really lacking. Peevy has plenty of experience, but you can't hang your hat on him and I think there is some pressure to turn to a younger QB of the future. Don't know when that happens. NC A&T I don't know much about really. Would normally assume a sizable dog against Maine is worth a look, but I haven't looked much. Know how a couple of their games have gone. Everyone likes the new coaching hire and staff, lots of ties to the days when A&T was good. Guess it wouldn't surprise me if Maine underperforms again as a favorite, but I am not taking anything.

Merrimack at Stony Brook - I needed SB last week and they failed. Needed them to overcome the energy of that home game for Lindenwood, and they did, but it was too late as LW was able to build a 27-3 lead before SB started coming back. LW does possess some offensive capability that Merrimack frankly does not, so defensively things will be easier for SB this week. SB was in the game vs URI, Rhody scored a late one to stretch to 14 pts, but that was a close game and figure if SB is in the game with a pretty good URI team, that matching up with Merirmack shouldn't be too much trouble. Merrimack is not bad, but not overly threatening either. I took the SB ML so maybe I'm not real confident.

Lindenwood at Miami Oh - Lindenwood O was a little off to start the year...got yards but not points at St Thomas, didn't have much of either at App State and then the 1H of the Charleston Southern game was more of the same, but then it started clicking and they scored 28 straight in that one to win and the O started hot last week as well. So the O should be getting more to what they need to be by this point. The LW D isn't good and MiaOh should have consistent success. So I took the Over. Don't know if there is an issue with the MiaOh QB, was told he didn't finish their last game.

Princeton at Lafayette - Princeton hasn't been good enough at QB for a couple years now, the OL is never good at Princeton for some reason, they don't generally have really great RBs. Historically they are very good at WR, I'm not sure if they are this year, they spread the ball around a ton in game 1. Regardless of these known issues, I played a number here in taking Princeton. The San Diego game implies the Princeton D isn't in for a turn around year even though defensively that is an area where they typically are strong and should've been improved from an off season. The way that the first game went down, and the way last year was, this game already has must win urgency so to not repeat the dismal 2024 season. I don't know if they actually can or will, but I don't think that Lafayette should be laying DDs. Lafayette is for sure better than 2024 and I like t see that out of them, but they still have been a little pourous vs the pass (SH 71% for 269y allowed 3-1 ratio and GT 63% for 362 allowed 2-1 ratio - each game was about 7-8 yards per pass att allowed). The D was good vs Columbia, but that was fairly predictable as Col QB Goodwin was missing all the good offensive players from the 2024 team and he himself only played in a handful. So that wasn't a difficult matchup for Laf D. And maybe this Princeton O isn't going to be a difficult matchup either. Tigers did score 35 and rack up 399y (7.3), albeit did so vs San Diego. Their QBs combined for 283y passing, more than any game last year. Princeton only avg 152.8y passing the first 6 games last year, so could be that this O is already ahead of where last year's was and it may not be a repeat of the poor 2024 offensive season. They led by 21 most of the 1H...SD had a couple short field TDs to spark the comeback and the game winning TD occurred with 1min to go. If Princeton can just play 4Q like they did in the 1H. I can't make a strong sell to myself on this, but I took the +12 and do expect Princeton to have a kitchen sink mentality in this game and the Lafayette D might give them some opportunities for success.
 
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Eastern Illinois at Western Illinois - Western ILL lost by 21 at Eastern Washington last week, but it was just 37-31 early 4Q for EW when the following sequence of events happened. EW kicked FG, but penalty gave them FD and they continued on that drive for a TD. W ILL was SOD near midfield and got hit with an unsportman like penalty moving EW into W ILL terr and EW added another TD on a short field and somewhere in there they must've went for 2 for some reason. Not like W ILL was really in the game, they ultimately were outgained by 239y and gave up a whopping 325y rushing to the tune of 7.7 ypc. But point being the game was played closer than the final. Each team had an identical yard per point metric of 11.5. Eastern Ill had their bye week after competing better than expected vs Illinois State. With the week 1 running QB out with injury, they turned to a Fr passing QB Wolf and he lit up the Red Birds for a Fr record 411y. I think LaCrue is expected back and now they have 2 very different QBs to figure out how to use. Neither team has shown much of a defense and the Over is 5-2 combined in their games. Eastern ILL won 45-38 last year as 4.5 pt home favs and it was close early, but Eastern was the better team in the 2H leading by 7-14 pts. Western did end the game when the clock ran out at the E24. Could be a "last team with the ball" type of thing again. Not sure who I would pick. I suppose the Over could still have some value at 63.5. Western's last two games have scored in the 80s.

St Thomas at San Diego - The first 3 in the series 2021-23 were one-score games. Last time here in 2023 St Thomas won in OT as a 6pt road fav. Last year St Thomas won 34-14 as a 1.5pt home dog which gave them a 3 game win streak over SD. In that one the Toreros turned it over 3 of their F5 possessions while St Thomas' O was clicking right off the bat and then RB Abebayo had a huge game (18att-277-3TD). St Thomas is off a bye and they have looked impressive in home win vs Lindenwood and played very well at Idaho. Then they played at Northern Michigan and from the box score, they didn't even resemble the same team offensively from the two prior weeks. Odd. I'd tend to not put much weight into that and instead assume their FCS performances will be closer to who they are this week. San Diego has had some good moments also, aside form losing to Cal Poly and a lopsided loss to Montana State, but beat Southern Utah and just came back from 21 down multiple times to beat Princeton on the road. SD has had two different RBs earn Pioneer O POW. Not much to latch onto here other than each team has had moments of playing well offensively and both teams have given it up defensively. Implies Over. St Thomas games would be 2-0 to the Over if LW had capitalized on their 450 yards better than just 13 pts, but they didn't. SD games are 4-1 to the Over, the SUU game would've stayed Under if it hadn't gone to OT. I figured taking the pts with the home team in what should be a competitive game vs two of the better Pioneer teams was a decent thing to do.

Eastern Washington at Montana State - Something is off this year with Montana State. It's a new OC and a new QB, things are just different. They are passing it more, Vigen thinks they need to be more balanced to be a championship program, Lamson has been ok. Not like Montana State is going to attract a good passing QB out of the portal. It's just different and seems a little awkward at times. Last year they ran for 9.6 on Maine and 5.9 on Utah Tech. Last year they ran for 6.9 against Mercyhurst. This year it was 5.7 vs MH and they 'only' ran for 5.2 on San Diego. The D is still very good, although not being able to get MH off the field last week was odd. They shut them out thanks to an INT at the goal line...but things are just looking different in a few ways. Think that Jared Taylor will be back for Eastern Washington, he missed the last 2 games. Taylor started the MSU game last year. Cats led by 14 twice, but EW kept coming back and it was tied 28-28 3Q. It took a 61y TD with 3min left for them to win by 14. MSU did outgain them 497-393 (7.9-5.7). That line closed at 17.5 / 63.5 and here we have 21.5 / 55.5. I really do not want EW in this game as they are weaker than last year and even if MSU is playing down a few notches from last year, if thing start rolling this game could turn into a blowout. But maybe it doesn't get rolling? I'm just not interested.
 
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Tennessee Tech at Tennessee State - such a huge swing from what these teams were last year. It is funny to hear people say "Tennessee State a playoff team from a year ago", as if to suggest they are still good or something. TSU was outgained by NC A&T and Alabama A&M by about 90y each. Not good. Texas Southern transfer RB Rhymes has been a good player for them, but doubt they have the passing game to stay in this one though. It wouldn't be fair to compare NDSU to TTU because TTU is trending to be one of the best teams in FCS this year, they just haven't done it yet. But considering the last 2 games TTU has played vs UTC (led 31-3, 45-10 and won 45-17 with a 513-274 yard edge (8.6-3.8ypp) and Davidson (led 28-0 1Q and won 72-14 with a 576-206 yard edge (7.5-3.6ypp) - those kind of dominant performances makes one think of what NDSU did to TSU - Bison beat them 59-3 with a yardage edge of 433-131 (7.0-2.8ypp). In this rivalry game among conference foes both off byes, TSU will probably compete better than they did in that one, but what's their ceiling? UTC scored 17...can this TSU team score that? I took some of the -28.5 so I am hopeful TTU can beat TSU by more than they did vs UTC.
 
Texas Southern at Mississippi Valley State - TxSo is one of the teams I know the least about. Mississippi Valley didn't play as bad as a 2 TD dog should back when they were in that role hosting Southern week 1....lost by 5 and only were outgained by 68y. When last time TxSo was this kind of a favorite? 2023 -19 vs Ark PB, they lost. I know Valley is a doormat, but is TxSo really good enough to be favored by more than 2 TDs?

Northern Arizona at Portland State - wanted NAU here and then books released -24.5! Wow. PSU has covered two straight...are people still lining up to bet against them? NAU O playing better this year, but the D is not. It's a lot of pts on the road, and PSU is bad, they lost some of their best players from last year, but last year they did play ok as dogs vs some of the better Big Sky teams...+11.5 vs Idaho lost 30-39, +10 vs UC Davis 26-27 (PSU should've won, time added back on clock to allow UCD final play which they scored TD on), then of course Montana State drilled them by 30 laying 21. I'd have to take NAU or nothing and unfortunately because of the line, looks like it is nothing.

Mercer at ETSU - Tough game. Mercer O different with True Fr QB Atkinson in the starting lineup the last 2 weeks. Played better than 1pt final score suggests vs Wofford and dominated offensively challenged Citadel last week. ETSU blew the 11pt 4Q lead 2 weeks ago at West Georgia and then shut down a previously hot Elon team last week. tFr Mercer QB in a big conference road game against a good D will be interesting. This isn't going to be like playing Wofford or The Citadel Ds. But ETSU has QB questions too. The McNamara - Criswell show was down a man last week with Criswell missing and McNamara is FCS good, not great. Both these Ds figure to control the action. That wasn't the case last year! 37-31 for Mercer - Mercer scored THREE non-offensive TDs which was kind of their thing last year. A lot of players from that game aren't around for this one. Both Ds figure to make a lot of plays. Would think Under...ETSU would be 3-0 to the Under if they didn't keep a WG drive alive with a penalty on 4th down...that was the first of 2 late 4Q TD drives that WG scored on their way to scoring the go-ahead with :15 left. But anyway, they are 2-1 to the Under. 52.5 is the highest Mercer total since week 0. Not counting week 0, Mercer is 2-1 to the Under, the one Over was 43 pts on a 41.5 pt total. One concern about an Under, and Mercer in general, something weird about Mercer D, they produce a lot of negative plays and get pressure and have good history of getting INTs, but last year and this year they can give up a lot of big plays through the air if they aren't able to effect it before QB throws. That is how Samford beat them last year, just threw it deep a ton and big plays almost saw Wofford beat them 2 weeks ago. Wofford only had 291y, they had 199 on 3 plays! I took a chance on ETSU +pts, just the Fr QB aspect on the road for Mercer playing his third game and I had high hopes for ETSU's season and this game is pivotal for that. If ETSU hadn't blown the WG lead, they'd be coming in here 3-0 vs FCS and might have a different feel to it and the way their D performed last week vs Elon was impressive.
 
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Saint Francis at Bucknell - I had ideas of playing Bucknell but feared a high spread and that is what they released. Can't lay nearly 3 TDs with the Bucknell D. The SFU O did have their best game of the year, although the bar was on the floor. First passing TD of the year and a 100y receiver! Pretty sure Bucknell will score...somebody has hit atleast 34 in each of their games, Bucknell is 3-1 to the Over with the only Under being so by .5 a pt. SFU's yards per point number the last 2 weeks vs FCS opposition is 32.4 and 30! They allow sub-10 yards per pt to the opponent. SFU games have gone Over twice due to the other team scoring a bunch, but they have been close to the number, avg total 47.5. The lowest Bucknell total to date was 53.5 and it's not like VMI or Marist Os were expected to be good, just that vs the Bucknell D opposing Os are better than they are otherwise week-to-week. It's not much to say that SFU O should have their best game of the season.

Brown at Harvard - This line dropped from 19.5 to 17.5, it might have briefly hit 20.5 or maybe that was the Yale line. So people buying the number on Brown following their dominant win vs Georgetown. The preseason look at Brown did not predict much of an improvement over the '24 team (3-7 - 2-5 vs Ivy) and actually I thought a slide was in order. Last year Brown won as a 7.5 home dog, but trailed 0-14 and 3-21. Huge turning point in the game when they got an INT run back to the H01 and scored a TD right before HT. Harvard went up 28-10 then Brown got a 75y TD. It was 28-23 when Harvard had a bad FG snap go over the holders head in the final minutes which was returned to the H27 and Brown got a TD next play for the winning score! Crazy way to win, Brown did outgain them 406-299 (5.4-4.3). Last year in terms of big wins, other than Stetson week 1, it took the Crimson a while to get rolling. Harvard O only avg 338ypg the first 3 games and then put up 492 at Cornell game #4 and won 38-20. That is probably the kind of game that will be needed here. Harvard did only win 2 Ivy games last year by 20pts or more (Princeton and Columbia). The last 3 in the series have been just 1 score games, although the 2022 game is misleading because Harvard led 28-0 and 35-7 before Brown scored 3 4Q TDs. I played Harvard at open and by the line move I bit too soon and recent history says Brown will cover this. I am couting on the fact that Brown is not who they showed to be last week and the fact that Harvard does not lose to Brown (had won 12 straight before last year) and that was a better equipped Brown team, that loss should've really bothered the Crimson players and staff this offseason so my expectation was for a big effort here to right that wrong and Brown can to do less then last year about preventing it.

South Carolina State at Charleston Southern - Had some interest in South Carolina State, but didn't take anything. CSU did play well in their only home game of the season so far, the 7 pt loss vs Lindenwood when they led 21-0 and put up a whopping 442y of O (6.7). They only gained 249 (5.5) at W&M last week and that was aided by a 63y TD run. So would figure their O is going to be limited again, but am hesitent because the last time I expected SC State D to shut an opponent down they allowed 41pts and 507y to Bethune Cookman. In their 2 FCS games SC State O is avg 487.5 yard, the ppg in those 35.5 avg, is down some because their drives ended in FGs rather than TDs vs Wofford. CSU D is bad of course. I was impressed how they played their home opener and while I don't think they can duplicate that, I haven't made any decision here.

The Citadel at Chattanooga - I took the Under mostly based on the O that Citadel has been fielding (just 5 offensive TDs in 4 games) and they are slightly better D so maybe they can keep the Chattanooga O that is off a big game in check some. Last year it was 31-7 with a 44.5 point total and I don't know why this year would be higher, Citadel has no O and UTC is weaker offensively this year. The O performance against Tarleton does make one question this. I don't really think Orth is a good QB, he's a 50% or worse type with a 4-5 ratio. He does run. And the run overall is what Citadel is going to have to stop because the UTC passing game just is not threatening. They gave up a 79y run last week, but outside of that Mercer only ran for 73y on their other 26att. GW didn't run that well on Citadel either (33att-118y). Citadel run game isn't great, but they do run a lot, about a 78% run team and I'm going to hope that keeps the clock and chains moving for the Cadets.

Nicholls at Eastern Kentucky - I wonder if EKU O found some things last week at West Georgia. EK O went from having a total of 425y combined in their first 3 games (two FBS but only 173y on HCU) to having 357 (5.0) at WG last week. EK only converted 6-of-44 3rd downs in their first 3 games, but were 43.8% last week. They actually played WG pretty tough despite losing by 19, WG scored on a 53y fum ret and the D also contributed a safety to the point total. Nicholls continues to have zero O, maybe we can throw out their FBS games too, but even vs WG, Nicholls only had 180y (2.0) and vs UIW just 287 (4.4). Nicholls has scored 4 offensive TDs in 4 games, nearly as many INTs (3) as TDs. The D was the headline, everyone loved the new HC who was the long time DC and they have some dudes on D and did a number vs UIW week 0, but since then, again maybe we throw out the 820 and 73 combined yards and pts they allowed vs Troy and Texas State, but West Georgia put up 405 (4.8) and 34 pts on them, so really everyone has gained yards and scored on them except UIW. Very inefficient O that can't run with an inconsistent QB. Would lean EKU but don't like the hook on the 3.5. 48.5 might be high for these teams. Nicholls is 3-1 to the Under (avg total 50), only Over was vs Troy because they scored 31 2H pts themselves. In the 3 Unders Nicholls has stayed under by an average of 14.5 ppg (combined scores of 26pts and 38 pts week 0 and week 4). EKU is also 3-1 to the Under (avg total 52), the only Over was vs Louisville who nearly topped it themelves. EKU has gone Under in their other 3 games by 11ppg.
 
Rhode Island at Western Michigan - I read that WMich is more of a defensive team than O which is what I would pick if I had to vs URI. URI has experience on O. Their OL returned 4 starters with an experienced reserve stepping into the vacated spot and they added some experience in the portal as well (a couple former FBS guys). RB Littleton is the new RB who was former FBS (had 1013 yards at Temple/Maryland). Buchanon is an AA WR and the other top WR Gaines was once at Iowa State. QB Farrell was originally at Virginia Tech. So this offense is veteran and it has FBS level talent so I am not fearful of them going against a MAC D, even a good one. Farrel has been good this year, but previously he did occasionally have some INT problems. But he can be pretty good at times and runs well. The D for URI was more of a question. I will say they have played well to date as every FCS team has had their lowest scoring game vs the Rhody D - the teams aren't great however (Campbell, Stony Brook, Holy Cross and Long Island). So after saying that...kind of a big jump up here to face even an average MAC O and that would be the area I would think URI could be in trouble if they are to have trouble. Not like I expect the O to find a lot of success, but I do trust them on that side of the ball more given the experience and some of the talent. MAC is always a mixed bag vs FCS and it matters who the teams are. I quickly counted, this year FCS vs MAC is 6-5 ATS. Not an awful record and opportunity for one of the better FCS teams to take a shot at a mid-level MAC team.
 
I was thinking about the New Haven - Duquesne Over. First time seeing it as Fan Duel isn't offering New Haven yet. 55.5 isn't bad...each team has capability to score and bad defenses
 
West Alabama looks pretty good, but their games vs North Greensboro have been close and they have lost 3 of 4 on the road there, so not going to lay the ML with them
 
Looks like Bentley is usually pretty good vs AIC. Bently 0-3 on the year. Down year or just haven't got it going yet?
 
Greetings from Ibiza fellas! Drinking sangria at Tanit Beach Club.

Wife is napping so figured I’d read through the thread. Anything I should keep an eye out for when BM opens later today? It’s 12:38pm here so 6 hours ahead of eastern time. Appreciate any insight you guys can provide!
 
carolinablue said:
Greetings from Ibiza fellas! Drinking sangria at Tanit Beach Club.

Wife is napping so figured I’d read through the thread. Anything I should keep an eye out for when BM opens later today? It’s 12:38pm here so 6 hours ahead of eastern time. Appreciate any insight you guys can provide!
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Hey now! Hope you are enjoying yourself!

Norfolk and Vick have been a disappointment, but this is a pretty good shot at a win I figure. -152 on the ML or you can lay a couple pts against Wagner.
I like Austin Peay vs Utah Tech, that is just a touch over 14, but maybe buy under it at BM
 
The NH - Duquesne total got on my radar. I would assume points there, NH QB throws it a ton and every Duquesne game has gone over, mostly because of their D vs the other team's O
 
s--k said:
Hey now! Hope you are enjoying yourself!

Norfolk and Vick have been a disappointment, but this is a pretty good shot at a win I figure. -152 on the ML or you can lay a couple pts against Wagner.
I like Austin Peay vs Utah Tech, that is just a touch over 14, but maybe buy under it at BM
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Having a blast, living the vip life drinking sangria and eating nigiri on the beach.

Appreciate the heads up on AP and Norfolk St. Will keep an eye out!
 
s--k said:
The NH - Duquesne total got on my radar. I would assume points there, NH QB throws it a ton and every Duquesne game has gone over, mostly because of their D vs the other team's O
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I was on the Akron over last week and that was cashed early as the Duquesne D is a mess. Not WCU level but pretty close.
 
They actually put a number on Ashland. -6.5. Straight off Massey. Ashland should win. Could be an ugly slugfest. Think I like the under better.

They actually lined the 1st half dozen or so d2 games. Don't usually do that.
 
CPA-hole said:
They actually put a number on Ashland. -6.5. Straight off Massey. Ashland should win. Could be an ugly slugfest. Think I like the under better.

They actually lined the 1st half dozen or so d2 games. Don't usually do that.
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Hm, yeah, a few spreads are offered now. Why not release more games though!
 
s--k said:
Hm, yeah, a few spreads are offered now. Why not release more games though!
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Exactly. Gonna be one of those weeks is those first few games are up forever and we get the minuteman special on the later ones.
 
s--k said:
West Alabama looks pretty good, but their games vs North Greensboro have been close and they have lost 3 of 4 on the road there, so not going to lay the ML with them
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Yeah. The ml number game down and they hung a 3.5. Lower than I thought. But I still couldn't play it, even though I think West Bama is far superior.
 
CPA-hole said:
Exactly. Gonna be one of those weeks is those first few games are up forever and we get the minuteman special on the later ones.
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Hopefully, at some point, more like last year, I know for sure that they had Dll lines up closer to when the actual kickoff times were because I took some later in day not just before noon
 
Nothing really I like in this window. Was hoping for a shorter number on Duluth. I may ride on Franklin Pierce again.
 
Concord at home +100? S&P has them winning 32.8-25.5 and reddit has Concord -6.5
 
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