Week 5 discussion

Faves are 31-29-2 ATS through the first 4 weeks. Unusually balanced so early in the season.
 
I may be on the Cowboys rather large

my theory with den games is if you think the other team can hang bet the over.. we know peyton gonna dissect a cover 2 dal isnt even playing all that well, i mean really can you possibly not pencil den in for 34+ right now? i do think it possible dal plays with them but if they do it goes over, even if they dont still good chance it goes over, to me over just has more ways to cash as opposed to fading den where you need everything to go right...books are prisoners right now on these totals, i made it 66.5 last week and even went over that with garbage late td, this week i made it 64, very few times in my life has my number been more than a td off what the actual number is and now all a sudden b2b weeks..
 
grabbed the dal/den ov 55.5 early on (figured it end up over 56 at some point)

sd/oak ov 45..both defenses are horrid against the pass, on 3rd down, and in the red zone..

gonna play bears just been waiting to see if i can get plus money at some point, forte should gash this saints d, think tressman will figure out a way to expose saints defensive schemes as he has the personal with forte and those 2 big boys on the outside..

more than likely will tease indy up and play ml..surely sea cant beat me for a 3rd time on the road, feel like was on right side against them in carolina and hou..indy d not as strong as the other 2 but b2b early gms for sea and i trust luck wont throw the gm away like that retard schaub..

no wolfork in the middle makes me wanna play cincy.

kc/ten seems like a under but man this aint 10 years ago and totals under 40 scare me these days..

makes no sense lambs are laying this many to anyone...blackmon should help give mjd some room to run and lambs are sharmin soft tacklers..for as bad as both those clowns playing qb in jax not sure bradford much better..hell i wouldnt be shocked if jags won but that line kinda says different..

conflicted in the panther/zona gm, think both teams better than they get credit for, wanted to play panthers off the bye but not sure i love them as short favs in the desert..under maybe?
 
Line on KC/TEN has moved to 2.5. I'm starting to lean toward the Titans to cover and win this. There's a tendency in sports to circle the wagons after a big injury and then there is also a corresponding tendency to eventually hit a big letdown. Looking at the Titans, they are 3-1 and about to go to Seattle and host SF which are two difficult games. This game is really important for them in the big picture. I checked the line for next week and the Seahawks are 14 point favorites, whoa!!

I think you get a herculean effort from the Titans on Sunday at home and next week they take a beatdown.
 
Also like the over in that game, Chiefs haven't played one yet. On paper it looks too easy for an under plus bovada has it shaded a point to go over against my book.
 
[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody id="oddsBody">[TR="class: row-group"]
[TD="class: team"]NFL - 10/6/2013[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/06

1:00 PM


413 Kansas City Chiefs
414 Tennessee Titans
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 82%
18%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 65%
35%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 66%
34%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5
41u-121
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5-109
38.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5
38.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1-130
38.5u-115
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
38.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -2.5-106/+102
38.5o-105/+101
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5
39
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5-115
38.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1-130
38.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/06

1:00 PM


415 Baltimore Ravens
416 Miami Dolphins
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 64%
36%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 77%
23%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 67%
33%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 42.5
-3-120
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 43.5u-104
-2.5-112
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 43
-3+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 43.5
-3+110
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 44
-3+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 43.5u-101/-103
-2.5-110/-110
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 43
-3+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 43.5
-2.5-115
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 43.5
-2.5-120
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/06

1:00 PM


417 Jacksonville Jaguars
418 St. Louis Rams
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 49%
51%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 60%
40%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 32%
68%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 43
-10.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41.5u-116
-11.5+100
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-11.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-11-115
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-11
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 41.5u-113/+108
-11.5+105/+105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-11.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-11.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-12.5+110
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/06

1:00 PM


419 New England Patriots
420 Cincinnati Bengals
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 79%
21%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 83%
17%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 78%
22%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 45
0-112
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 45u-101
0-102
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 45
0
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 45
-1-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 45
-1
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 45o-106/+102
0-101/-101
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 45
-1
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 45
0
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 45
0-115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/06

1:00 PM


421 Seattle Seahawks
422 Indianapolis Colts
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 58%
42%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 31%
69%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 74%
26%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3
43
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1-129
43.5o-110
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
44
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+105
43.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3-105
44
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -1-118/+117
43.5o-110/+106
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
44
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
44
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2.5-115
44
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/06

1:00 PM


423 Detroit Lions
424 Green Bay Packers
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 42%
58%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 56%
44%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 91%
9%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 51.5
-6.5-120
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53.5o-107
-7.5+104
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53
-7
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53.5
-7
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53.5
-7
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 53.5o-104/+100
-7.5+107/+107
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53
-7
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53.5
-7
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53.5
-8+110
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/06

1:00 PM


425 New Orleans Saints
426 Chicago Bears
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 78%
22%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 76%
24%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 95%
5%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 47
0
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 0-114
48.5o-104
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 48
0
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 48
0
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1.5
48.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 0-111/+106
48.5o-101/-103
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1.5
48.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 48.5
-1
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 0-120
48.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/06

1:00 PM


427 Philadelphia Eagles
428 New York Giants
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 59%
41%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 67%
33%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 62%
38%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 55
-1-112
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53u-101
-1-107
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 52.5
-1.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53.5
-1
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53
-1
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 53o-106/+102
-1-106/-106
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53.5
-1
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53
-1.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 53
0-120
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/06

4:05 PM


429 Carolina Panthers
430 Arizona Cardinals
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 78%
22%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 72%
28%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 31%
69%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2
42
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1-110
41.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1.5
42.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1
42
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1.5
42
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -1-112/+104
41.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -2
42
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1
42
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1.5
42
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/06

4:25 PM


433 Denver Broncos
434 Dallas Cowboys
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 86%
14%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 68%
32%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 87%
13%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -5.5
54
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -7.5+103
56o-110
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -7-120
55.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -7.5+100
56
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -7-125
56.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -7.5+112/-113
56o-107/+103
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -8.5
57o-120
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -7.5+100
56.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -8.5+115
56.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/06

8:30 PM


435 Houston Texans
436 San Francisco 49ers
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 47%
53%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 60%
40%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 79%
21%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 42.5
-6.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41.5u-107
-6
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41.5
-6
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41.5
-6
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 41.5u-104/+100
-6
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41
-5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41.5
-6-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 41.5
-7+110
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="display: block;" type="checkbox">
10/06

11:35 PM


431 San Diego Chargers
432 Oakland Raiders
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 83%
17%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 44%
56%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 89%
11%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -5
44
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -4
45
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -4.5
45.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -4
45
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -4

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
lacy and forte have great matchups


john harbaugh said that they need to use ray rice much more...
 
RJ Bell:

Chiefs @ Titans (+3) -- 1 p.m.

Alex Smith last 30 games as a starter: 24-5-1 SU

Titans 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] team in NFL history with 0 turnovers after 4 games.

Ravens @ Dolphins (-3) -- 1 p.m.

Miami: Since 2005, teams are 46-78 ATS the week AFTER playing the Saints

Miami:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 7 of 26 games since start of last season

Baltimore: Away underdog off road loss: 61% since 2003 league-wise

Visitor in Miami games 52-31 ATS

Dolphins: 10-32 ATS as a home favorite

Off last 20 losses, Ravens won the next game 18 times.
Jaguars @ Rams (-11.5) -- 1 p.m

In 4 games this season, Jax has trailed by 16, 24, 26, and 31 points

Jags: Loss by 30 or more last week: 57% ATS (league-wide since 1990)

Rams 2-9 ATS the week after play San Fran

Biggest favorite for Rams in over 10 seasons

Last two weeks, Rams outrushed 412 yards to 53.
Patriots @ Bengals (-1) -- 1 p.m.

Bill Belichick with Patriots: 36-18-1 ATS (67%) as underdog.

Seahawks @ Colts (+3) -- 1 p.m.

Seattle:
(starting in 2005): 70% ATS at home (49-21-1)
On road during same period: 39% (28-43-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 92-49-2 (65% winners)

Seattle has covered 13 straight vs. teams with a winning record.

Seattle: 15-3 ATS last 18

Luck: 4-0 ATS and SU as a home dog.

Indy OC at Stanford has had success vs. Pete Carroll

109 minutes since Colts last allowed a TD
Lions @ Packers (-7) -- 1 p.m.

Lions on the road (starting in 2006): 21-36-2 (37%)
Lions – a dome team - have covered only 2 of last 10 on GRASS.

Favorite has covered 11 of last 13 Packers games.
Mike McCarthy only coach in NFL with more than 60 games who is over 60% ATS

Last 17 times Green Bay lost against the spread, covered next game 15 times.

Packers 19-6 ATS at home

Lions: Lost 10 STRAIGHT against the spread after score 30 or more points the prior game

GB: 31-11 ATS in Division (10 of last 11)

Lions 0-22 SU at Green Bay (4-17-1 ATS)

Packers 8-0 ATS after bye

Saints @ Bears (pk) -- 1 p.m.

Saints have covered 11 of 12 regular season games under Payton
Eagles at Giants (-2.5) -- 1 p.m.

Eagles have yielded 32.6 points per the last 14 games.
Eagles last 14 games have given up 35 touchdown passes while forcing only 3 interceptions!

Eagles: Away underdog off road loss: 61% league-wide since 2003

Giants: only 2 of 14 winning seasons at home ATS

Philly: Loss by 30 or more last week: 57% ATS (league-wide since 1990)

Eagles/Giants: Underdog 13-3 in this series.

Teams giving up the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] and 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] most points in NFL.
Panthers @ Cardinals (+2) -- 4:05 p.m.

Cam Newton 2-14 SU in one score games in his career

Ron Rivera, in three seasons, has started 1-5 and 1-6 and now 1-2

Road Favorite off a bye: 45-12 ATS (79% league-wide last 13 seasons)

Cards at home are 56% against the spread – last 10+ seasons (48-37 ATS)

Chargers @ Raiders (+4) -- 4:25 p.m.

Underdog 8-1 ATS in series

Favorite in Raiders games 10-2 ATS last 12

First time Chargers favored this season
Broncos @ Cowboys (+7.5) -- 4:25 p.m.

Home underdogs getting MORE than 8-points are 23-3 ATS last 26!
(Possible to get there on gameday)

Last 4 seasons: the underdog has covered 71% of Dallas games (37-15 ATS)

Denver has won 15 straight regular season games (SU)

Cowboys 5-14 ATS at home
Dallas “Tampa Two” D is same scheme Manning practiced against many years in Indy.

Dallas as a home dog since 1990 (25-11 ATS)

Cowboys: Biggest home underdog for Dallas since 2001
Texans @ 49ers (-6.5) -- 8:30 p.m.

Coach Kubiack 39% in career as a dog of 4 or more points (13-20 ATS)

Texans have outgained by 156 yards per game
Saints are the only other team with an edge over 100
Dominate Denver is 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] - only outgaining opp by 92 yards per game

49ers at home under Harbaugh: 16-5-1 ATS

Teams have scored TDs 88% of time in red zone against Houston - That’s worst in NFL

MNF: Jets at Atlanta (-10)

Atlanta:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 7 of 26 games since start of last season

Matt Ryan 35-8 SU at home

Coach Smith 35-21 ATS as favorite

The next game after a loss: Atlanta has covered 21 of 25!
Off a loss of 6 or more points: Mike Smith 16-0 ATS

Jets: Away underdog off road loss: 61% league-wide since 2003

3 TDs yielded last week by Jets were from drives less than 27 yards
 
SP and the Saints are 0-3 up vs Bears....Saints ripped the Bears last time in the SD in a game I had circled

This is an interesting game...anyone in Chi have a great weather report/outlook?
 
Texans hold players-only meeting

Posted by Mike Florio on October 1, 2013, 4:50 PM EDT

In the wake of a meltdown on Sunday in a game that the Texans should have won against Seattle, members of the 2-2 team conducted a players-only meeting.
The speakers at the players-only meeting included the only player fans are blaming for the loss: quarterback Matt Schaub.
“I just want to clear it up,” safety Danieal Manning told Yahoo! Sports Radio 1560 in Houston, via ESPN.com. “Matt, we’re riding behind him 100 percent. I don’t think anyone — of course we were all pissed off about plays, everybody’s like that. DBs make mistakes, you want the whole team to be upset, even the player that made the mistake, you should say something. Matt has been a man about this whole time. He told us how he felt, what’s going to change, what needs to change. . . . On the defensive side players stepping up saying things. I believe at this point today we really have a change in the way that we’re going to approach the next game.”
Other speakers included, according to Manning, safety Ed Reed, defensive end Antonio Smith, and receiver Andre Johnson.
From Schaub’s perspective, it would be great to know specifically what he said regarding “what’s going to change, what needs to change.” Did he say he’ll stop being more cognizant of the rush and, at times, apparently unwilling to take a hit? Did he say he’ll stand up to coach Gary Kubiak the next time Schaub is in a position where he knows the wrong play has been called but he (according to Kubiak) doesn’t have the power to change it?
Did Schaub say he’ll spend more time studying the team’s tendencies on offense so that players like Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman won’t be able to say that a given play was so predictable Sherman saw it in practice two days earlier and knew it was coming in the key moment of the game?
That’s where Manning’s explanation is a bit inconsistent. Yes, everyone makes mistakes. But Schaub presumably addressed during the meeting his own mistakes, which naturally draw more attention — especially when there’s a bright-line connecting his mistakes and the points that forced overtime.
It’s good that the players are behind Schaub. He likely gives them their best chance of winning more games than they lose, if he irons out some of his rough spots. In the end, though, what the players think of Schaub won’t matter if Kubiak decides that it’s in the best interests of the team to go with T.J. Yates, who led the team to its first-ever playoff win in 2011, or Case Keenum, the undrafted gunslinger from the University of Houston whose jersey fans would be ready to buy and wear, not buy and burn.
Either way, the Texans will have 11 players only on the field at all times on Sunday night, when they try to beat the 49ers in San Francisco.
 
Just one day after the Texans 23-20 overtime loss to Seattle, <nobr>Arian Foster</nobr> called a players-only meeting to regroup. Tight ends <nobr>Owen Daniels</nobr> and <nobr>Garrett Graham</nobr> shared their thoughts on Tuesday’s Verizon Players radio show.

“It was good,” Graham said. “It was good to get some things out in the open there and kind of get everybody on the same page. We had a few guys talk. I think Arian called the meeting up and people said what needed to be said. It was good to all get on the same page, just know that we are all going forward as a team and just looking forward to playing San Francisco and all getting on the same mindset.”

Daniels, who did not give the specifics of what was said behind closed doors, said the purpose of the meeting was to help everyone gain perspective from the previous losses and learn from them.

“Nothing earth-shattering, really,” Daniels said of what was discussed. “It was basically just the leaders stepping up and putting their two cents in, in what they are seeing and what is going on. No one’s freaking out. No one’s panicking. We’ve got our poise. We just want to make sure that we are all doing things the right way and trying to get better and not have this be a loss that affects us as the year goes along.”

The (2-2) Texans will travel to (2-2) San Francisco for their prime-time matchup on Sunday, October 6 at 7:30 CT.
 
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