Week 5 Bases

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Still digging out of early season hole but did have a good week and definitely a step in right direction!
View attachment 32149

SUN 5-2 +1.51u (Mets postponed)
YTD 99-103-2 -11.506u

  • 960 New York Yankees -1½ -105
  • 960 New York Yankees -193
  • 961 Cleveland Indians -185
  • 966 Houston Astros -1½ +107
  • 966 Houston Astros -177
Mostly chalk again today, but remember I'm only risking 1 unit per play. So on CLE -185 I risk $100 to win $54.10 with theoretical $100 unit value.
Still looking at a couple more, possibly fading Moore and Folty,
Extra note: Gausman team has went 3-11 RL over 3 years during first 30 games of season..link

View attachment 32150 View attachment 32151 View attachment 32152
 
moar...
  • 954 Colorado Rockies -158
  • 954 Colorado Rockies -1½ +110
  • 961 Cleveland Indians -1½ -115
Home team facing team off road game where they had fewer than 4 hits and their starter had quality start last time out. This has went 5-0 so far this year but I wanted 5+ years to back it up. Also without additional parameters it is 19-6 this year with: op:hits < 4 and season >= 2018 and H and op:A

a7629c28-7140-42b6-bc37-870b85b81ad4.png
 
I'm already down on HOU ML & RL but here's a little more powder. The Astros qualify on both of following angles

Fading road dog averaging 2.5 or less run per game over last 8

AD and Average(runs@team and season, N=8) <= 2.5 and season > 2016
SU: 18-41 (-1.92, 30.5%) avg line: 145.3 / -157.3 on / against: -$1,599 / +$1,404 ROI: -27.1% / +15.2%

RL: 31-28 (-0.42, 52.5%) avg line: -176.3 / 134.0 on / against: -$2,543 / +$671 ROI: -24.2% / +11.2%

OU: 29-27-3 (0.07, 51.8%) avg total: 9.1 over / under: -$90 / -$496 ROI: -1.4% / -7.6%

also HF facing opponent that averaged < 2 rpg over last 8 for over 5 years omitting SEPT and including high but not ridiculous lines
HF and oA(runs@team and season, N=6) <= 2 and season >= 2013 and -250 < line < -170 and month < 9
SU: 39-4 (2.86, 90.7%) avg line: -201.0 / 182.4 on / against: +$3,090 / -$3,178 ROI: +35.7% / -73.9%

RL: 26-17 (1.36, 60.5%) avg line: 107.5 / -118.8 on / against: +$1,154 / -$1,459 ROI: +26.1% / -28.4%

OU: 22-18-3 (0.48, 55.0%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: +$282 / -$637 ROI: +6.0% / -13.3%

View attachment 32158
 
a few more and I'm done...too much free time lol

  • 957 Washington Nationals -108
  • 964 Texas Rangers +122
  • 967 Seattle Mariners/Chicago White Sox Over 9 -115
Wanted to fade Moore, really I did but so many home dog queries were coming up for Tex and I need a dog. Gio is really good in April on road
starter=Gio Gonzalez and month < 5 and A
 
Full card:
  • 954 Colorado Rockies -158
  • 954 Colorado Rockies -1½ +110
  • 957 Washington Nationals -108
  • 960 New York Yankees -1½ -105
  • 960 New York Yankees -193
  • 961 Cleveland Indians -185
  • 961 Cleveland Indians -1½ -115
  • 964 Texas Rangers +122
  • 966 Houston Astros -1½ +107
  • 966 Houston Astros -177
  • 967 Seattle Mariners/Chicago White Sox Over 9 -115
S01e04_party_time.gif
 
Disappointing 4-7 about 4.2u in toilet...will update later

Today's darts sailing into the wind:
  • 903 Arizona Diamondbacks -103
  • 921 Oakland Athletics +107
  • 924 Houston Astros -155
  • 903 Arizona Diamondbacks +1½ -215
  • 921 Oakland Athletics +1½ -200
  • 924 Houston Astros -1½ +130
  • 920 Toronto Blue Jays -105
 
  • 901 Atlanta Braves -109
  • 901 Atlanta Braves -1½ +158
  • 927 Detroit Tigers +1½ -125
Like McCarthy...8-1 early season last 2 years...Zimm 10-6 RL same timeframe

HERES ALL TODAYS REMAINING STARTERS SORTABLE/CLICKABLE
https://goo.gl/ti1bKh
 
Blach is Blah(1-6 early season L2), WAS not hitting but Mr Blach is likely what doc ordered, SF has been overperforming so far and beat me here last night

  • 953 Washington Nationals -109
  • 911 Washington Nationals -1½ +155
  • 911 Washington Nationals/San Francisco Giants Over 8 -105
and there's this;
F and oA(o:runs) <= 3.5 and oS(o:runs<=4, N=3) = 3 and season >= 2015 and league = NL
SU: 52-21 (1.51, 71.2%) avg line: -139.3 / 128.0 on / against: +$2,349 / -$2,571 ROI: +23.0% / -35.1%

RL: 37-36 (0.05, 50.7%) avg line: 153.6 / -169.0 on / against: +$1,993 / -$2,485 ROI: +26.9% / -20.1%

OU: 35-36-2 (0.73, 49.3%) avg total: 7.6 over / under: -$363 / -$200 ROI: -4.5% / -2.5%
7Ow8.gif
 
  • 907 San Diego Padres +145
  • 930 Kansas City Royals +125
10 years off rival div win as dog for poor team <38% win and line 125-175

Code: 
D and p:AWD and p:DIV and 175 >= line >= 125 and WP < 38 and season >= 2008
SU: 64-51 (0.23, 55.7%) avg line: 150.4 / -162.0 on / against: +$4,487 / -$5,205 ROI: +39.0% / -27.9%

RL: 74-41 (1.73, 64.3%) avg line: -141.7 / 129.2 on / against: +$1,529 / -$2,085 ROI: +9.4% / -18.0%

OU: 48-60-7 (-0.00, 44.4%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: -$1,780 / +$730 ROI: -14.1% / +5.7%
 
mrpickem said:
sheeit, just bet NYY and over every night....16-5-1 last 11 games! 7-4 RL for good measure
Click to expand...

Played over yesterday and was getting worried w twinks giving me nothing, then yanks proceeded to smoke it by themselves in the late innings, kinda just like tonight. Twinks offense was so ugly yesterday I passed today. Guess don't matter way yanks starting to score runs! Lol
 
Well, asfter good week...basically give it all back in 2 nights. Back to the drawing board.

MON 4-7 -4.12u
TUE 5-9 -5.33u (Tigers postponed)
YTD 108-119-2 -20.956u
  • 960 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -155 link
  • 960 Los Angeles Dodgers -340 link
  • 966 Houston Astros -208 link
  • 971 Boston Red Sox -1½ +127 link / link
  • 971 Boston Red Sox -124 link / link
Here's all today's starters APR/MAY since 2016 sorted on SU win $$
View attachment 32178

Fun fact...take Marlins vs Kershaw over career for 43% ROI
View attachment 32179
 
Best of luck today, Mr. P. And agree with Tuck...Gray's numbers are staggering in how he has become an extremely hittable pitcher. Fortunately, he's going against another shitbag in Lynn who sucks like a Hoover vacuum. I smell runs...
 
Gray played a hot Jays team and ran into trouble after having a few solid innings. He's been making adjustments and I think experiencing some transition pains.

Lynn is the worst pitcher in bases.
 
There is 2 Gray's going today. I think Sonny still serviceable but I'm still taking both overs. No side in either game for me...yet

  1. 951 San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies Over 10 +105
  2. 967 Minnesota Twins/New York Yankees Over 9 -106
 
  1. 968 New York Yankees* -170
  2. 968 New York Yankees* -1½ +110


Team that has won 4 straight by 4 or more (YANKEES)
F and tS(margin>3, N=4) = 4
SU: 63-29 (1.40, 68.5%) avg line: -155.8 / 142.4 on / against: +$1,811 / -$2,241 ROI: +12.6% / -24.3%
RL: 34-35 (0.01, 49.3%) avg line: 116.6 / -131.9 on / against: +$480 / -$932 ROI: +6.4% / -9.9%
OU: 44-41-7 (-0.01, 51.8%) avg total: 8.8 over / under: -$40 / -$770 ROI: -0.4% / -7.6%


Home conference favorite over 150 off win of 3 or more and starter off non quality start (YANKEES)

HCF and line < -150 and season >= 2015 and p:margin > 2 and s:NQS and team = Yankees
SU: 12-5 (3.24, 70.6%) avg line: -188.5 / 173.5 on / against: +$295 / -$365 ROI: +9.2% / -21.5%
RL: 10-7 (1.74, 58.8%) avg line: 104.1 / -120.0 on / against: +$368 / -$479 ROI: +20.1% / -23.0%
OU: 9-7-1 (1.65, 56.2%) avg total: 9.0 over / under: +$115 / -$310 ROI: +6.1% / -16.6%
 
Okay day, except for stupid Dodger play. Only good part was I only lost 1 unit instead of 3.4 on the -340. I risk 1u to win .294 :violin2: oh and I also lost a unit on LAD RL. lol

TUE 8-4 +3.16u
YTD 116-123-2 -17.796u
  • 910 New York Yankees -185
  • 915 Boston Red Sox -196
Sale is one of the best early season pitchers around (20-6 since '15 first 35 games) and Bosox will back a pitcher https://goo.gl/3f3qm9

Yanks been red hot and line may be a little high but I'll stay aboard for now, prolly add over and RL later
Gibson has gave up 22 ER in 19 inn lifetime vs bomber (0-4)
Favs over 160 off 3 straight wins of 3 or more last 5 years= BANK! Actually NY won yesterday by 3 and the 3 games before that by 5 or more
line < -160 and month < 5 and season >= 2013 and tS(margin>2, N=3) = 3
SU: 15-3 (4.06, 83.3%) avg line: -199.4 / 181.9 on / against: +$943 / -$982 ROI: +26.2% / -54.6%

RL: 12-6 (2.56, 66.7%) avg line: -104.0 / -110.9 on / against: +$649 / -$783 ROI: +32.1% / -37.4%

OU: 8-9-1 (0.33, 47.1%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: -$155 / +$55 ROI: -7.8% / +2.8%
 
Why is Balty favored. Rays red hot, soring 7 per game over L7 and hitting over 350 L5 str wins. I know Bundy has pitched well this year, but damn..Archer is the veteran and still has a lot left in the tank
  • 910 New York Yankees -1½ -105
  • 909 Minnesota Twins/New York Yankees Over 9½ -110
  • 913 Tampa Bay Rays +112
  • 913 Tampa Bay Rays +1½ -190
Poor team (<37%) as favorite after 6 game avg less than 6 hits for the past 3+ years

View attachment 32203
 
Fulmer pretty good and I'm gonna hope he can go awhile and stay away from that shit pen

  • 919 Detroit Tigers +145
  • 919 Detroit Tigers/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 8 -118
 
  • 911 Seattle Mariners -1½ +170
  • 911 Seattle Mariners -102
  • 912 Cleveland Indians Under 3½ +100
  • 911 Seattle Mariners/Cleveland Indians Under 7½ +102
 
Meh..poor game management...don't know why I got so excited with Paxon...simple straight and I'm a winner on day, but forcing 4 plays on same game cost me

THUR 6-6 -1.48u
YTD 124-131-2 -19.276u
  • 957 St. Louis Cardinals -132
  • 972 Boston Red Sox -1½ +120
  • 977 New York Yankees -1½ +107
  • 977 New York Yankees -152
Teams averaging 7 or more for 8 game are 7-0 last five years off walk of win as favorite
Pomeranz's Sox are 23-11 since beginning of last year when he starts, not bad but also 23-11 RL https://goo.gl/XN76Fr
Cards and Yanks also qualify as away fav after walkoff win over 5 years https://goo.gl/HHwhbK
 
Play Against CUBS and Yu
NL offense >=4.7 rpg vs team with pe ERA<=3.75 after scoring 1 run or less: 67-37 over last 5+ seasons, 64.4% (32.2 units)
Fun fact.. Darvish means "soft tossing b!tch" in Japanese.
Cubs bats could carry them, but if Cubs win...I would think it has to go over
  • 951 Milwaukee Brewers +156

of note: Suter day splits not bad
View attachment 32219

even day vs chubs...albeit small sample
View attachment 32220
 
I am leaning towards a play on the MIL myself...already invested in the under think its a coin toss game...may wait and try to grab MIL at a better in game price
 
So I been on a mission for past 3 weeks or so to generate a query that would auto pull todays stats and list with my given parameters. I have always had to copy all starters and paste all names into a query to get todays starter results.

Well after lots of effort and some help from others I have finally got a working query. It is a work in progress and to change the parameters, they must be changed in 6 different locations, but what da fuck...IT WORKS!

The query...
date,R(team) as 'Team',R(starter) as 'Starter',int(tS(W@team and season>2016)) as 'W -',int(tS(L@team and season>2016)) as 'L',round(tA(margin@team and season>2016),2) as '(marg',int(WP@team and season>2016) as '%win)',tS(profit@team and season>2016) as 'On',oS(profit@team and season>2016) as 'Against',@starter and season>2016 | $2,$3,$4,$5,$6,$7,$8,$9@today in date

It's a work in progress and currently is gives team wins,losses,profit, margin, win % and thats about it.

But I am proud I finally got it working...hardest one I've done so far. Umpire whip was 2nd

https://goo.gl/XPvoSJ
 
That's pretty cool. Nice job. Looking forward to see what you add. Really nice job! No more copying and pasting. Cheers dude.
 
austinhous said:
That's pretty cool. Nice job. Looking forward to see what you add. Really nice job! No more copying and pasting. Cheers dude.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I put a lot of effort into it and I learned a helluva lot. Will probably still copy/paste for now because it gives more info, parameters easily changed and clickable. They are both sortable. The copy/past version https://goo.gl/A1uG5B

Damn Suter pitched good enough to win, but Yu surprised. Seen quite a few on under...congrats
 
one more...
  • 961 New York Mets -157
Yanks and Mets qualify here, I'm already on NYY from earlier
Road fav of less than 200 in series game one with starter era < 2.55 and opp starter ERA > 5.25 yields 28.6% ROI over last 3+ years!

f3c1f871-977a-41e5-a66e-4bda1d27b3b5.png
 
  • Live In-Play Baseball 9954 Washington Nationals -1½ +160

was -340 so I opted for the -1' even though zona bully much better
 
Live In-Play Baseball 9953 Arizona Diamondbacks* -160 vs Washington Nationals

Bought out...get middled on 1-run WAS win
 
Well reds bailed me out or it could have been real bad night. Somehow I feel that I have weathered the storm and it's ready to get good...real good.

FRI 5-6 -2.22u
YTD 129-137-2 -21.496u

  • 901 Milwaukee Brewers +162
  • 907 St. Louis Cardinals -118
  • 916 Boston Red Sox -205
  • 923 Oakland Athletics +1½ -105
BOS will get back on track as favs 185-225 this year are 44-11 20% ROI(9% ROI over last 5+ years)

-225 <= line <= -185 and F and season >= 2018
SU: 44-11 (2.35, 80.0%) avg line: -202.2 / 182.4 on / against: +$2,220 / -$2,426 ROI: +20.0% / -44.1%
RL: 30-25 (0.90, 54.5%) avg line: -135.0 / -109.8 on / against: +$250 / -$545 ROI: +3.3% / -8.8%
OU: 23-28-4 (0.55, 45.1%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$703 / +$235 ROI: -11.8% / +3.8%


Guerra has been really good and Quintana not...Brewers lost 2 str by 1 run, I think they'll be up today
Mengden has pitched really well since mid last season and A's playing real well(9-2 L11)
Mengden night splits great last year+
View attachment 32232
 
Last edited:
reds were good to me, so why not
  • 929 Cincinnati Reds +135
  • 929 Cincinnati Reds +1½ -145
interleague away dog < 155 with both avg to bad starters off win and series game > 1 over last 8 years+
View attachment 32236
 
Game 2
  • 914 San Francisco Giants +107
  • 914 San Francisco Giants +1½ -155
A and starter = Alex Wood and season >= 2016 and game number < 36
SU: 2-7 (-2.56, 22.2%) avg line: -122.3 / 110.8 on / against: -$668 / +$625 ROI: -55.3% / +60.3%

RL: 3-6 (-3.06, 33.3%) avg line: -106.6 / -107.7 on / against: -$439 / +$391 ROI: -38.6% / +35.8%

OU: 7-2-0 (3.50, 77.8%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: +$500 / -$535 ROI: +49.8% / -54.9%

3310d035-8f02-4eab-9375-e2c830c61120.png
 
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