WEEK 4

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
one unit

Fla St P
Kansas St -7
S Miss -5
UMass -1
WKU +3' / ML
Utah St +5 / ML


smaller

Hawaii -2'
Ohio St -3
Rice -1'
EMU +6'
Ducks TT over 45
Cinn +14'
S Ala -15
Arkansas +17'
Ga St TT over 27'
CCaro ML 3Q
SMU +7
UCLA +3 1H
UTEP +0.5 1H
UConn +12' 1H
Kentucky/Vandy 1H under 26'
Cuse 2H
Bama / Ole Miss 1H UNDER 28'
Kan St -2' 2H
 
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I really love Nebraska and Rice this week. It seems to easy but I think Oregon may be my lifetime biggest bet. I'm firing hard on that one if it remains under 21! GL this week!!
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Hey BA.....any K St QB injury update? He finished the game vs Mizzou buy obviously wasn't 100%
Click to expand...

Might be limited running, otherwise likely fine .....
>. their MLB Green is out, OL Duffie returns - 1st time OL full strength this year

Off a loss - with a bye on deck - Big 12 opener / nite game >> all high % spots
>>poor road team UCF playing with bu QB, 1st B12 game

I would take the 6' - it will only go up - I've got this at 8'
 
MikeU said:
Rutgers
Oregon
Oregon TT Over 100 lol
NC St.
Click to expand...

Why screw up a fine card with NC St ? ha

Fading the Cavs is seldom a bad idea, but here I don't think I would do it ....

Weekday road ACC favorite - vs an 0-3 team / backs to the wall?

NC St is really bad on the road (covered 6/20 ACC road) - UConn game was fairly close - late TD on a short field extended lead from 17-14. Cavs played JMU tough, and Terps better than it looks - had 4 TO's. If you like the Pack here, I would wait for a live/2H play > Cav OL is weak - NCST might give them serious problems - it should be apparent early if NCST has come to play ......... :shake:
 
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bookieassassin said:
28/30 or so opener at FD/DK - influenced by SP+ (30) I guess, and/or just begging for Rutgers money
Click to expand...
Yeah, I those post on that number.

Nothing for me at 24... tbh my issue here is UM had their 'blah' game last week. With JH back, I think they are much more crisp. I have big respect for Shiano and will bet on RU more times than I fade them this year. They have the 2021 B16 Champs one of their scares in this same situation (week 4, conference opener).

Head to gun, this is a less than 21 point win.
 
BA- Any totals on your radar? Thoughts on Memphis/Mizzou over 53? Neutral site game indoors which is rare for both squads.....fast track....both qbs serviceable with decent wrs.....
 
Rusty Trombone said:
BA- Any totals on your radar? Thoughts on Memphis/Mizzou over 53? Neutral site game indoors which is rare for both squads.....fast track....both qbs serviceable with decent wrs.....
Click to expand...

not really - haven't looked at much - sides are stressing my old brain / do everything by hand so totals are too much work ha
>> tho that's where the $$ is no doubt, especially openers

Sorry for the brutal advice on Kansas St - before week 3 - KSU should/would be favored by 9 or so ..... The loss at Mizzou is worth a 5 point deduction in their PR? HOW? > you can't bump up UCF for crushing NOVA can you? It's gonna be depressing if I'm wrong on this one .... may have to channel my inner Yakuza and chop of the pinkie on my non-drinking hand > will post on YT so those following can enjoy ............. :shocked:

If they weren't such a terrible road team, I would play Memphis - OVER looks like the way to go - Mizzou D might relax a bit off that huge effort - Memphis plays little D on the road

* interesting that Action N is posting a WEATHER REPORT for this game ha
 
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added smaller

E Michigan +6'

waited too long, paid small tax

This one should be 2' - Their performance vs UMass was eggzactly what we should expect right? It should mean a ZERO reduction in their PR #. This is of course one of the highest % plays year in/out - EM as a road dog. For some odd reason, oddsmakers give us added value because they absolutely stink at home, and when favored.

Smaller only because they have a chance to compete in the MAC this year - (their season goals were to just make a bowl). Jax St may have too much speed .....?
 
bookieassassin said:
added smaller

E Michigan +6'

waited too long, paid small tax

This one should be 2' - Their performance vs UMass was eggzactly what we should expect right? It should mean a ZERO reduction in their PR #. This is of course one of the highest % plays year in/out - EM as a road dog. For some odd reason, oddsmakers give us added value because they absolutely stink at home, and when favored.

Smaller only because they have a chance to compete in the MAC this year - (their season goals were to just make a bowl). Jax St may have too much speed .....?
Click to expand...
Tried and true, EMU dogs...
 
adding

WKU +3'

risking 0.75 / 0.25 ML

Solid road dog (14-6) vs weak home favorite (7-13)
MUCH better QB
HUGE turnover edge (WKU +4 / Troy -5) - WKU #6 in forced fumbles
Troy can't run or protect the passer - #125 in TFL allowed / #119 in sack % allowed - offensive havoc allowed #132 -
>> RZ D (TD) #114 - #50 TFL / #65 sack % - D allows 12.2 yds/pt (#100)
WKU D is terrible, but so is Troy O > 22.4 yds/pt - WKU rushes the passer well (#16) and protects (#27)
WKU with the much better ST (#49 > #93) , and leverage FP (field position) better as well (#88 > #127)

$ Not big on the revenge angle, but Troy did win LY 34-27 - it probably gives a slight edge to WKU as they prepare. I think the Troy D is way down from last year, they simply get outscored here IMO.....
 
small play

Ducks TT over 45

>> at MB - looking to play Ducks live/2H, instead of laying the 21, don't trust their D / killer instinct
 
added smaller

CINN +14'

IT'S CALLED A LOOK-A-HEAD GAME - (Cinn loss to Miami) ...... IMO

OU has really done nothing - watch that SMU game? - Ponies outgained, and gave the game away late with usual mistakes - OU has lost 5/6 SU on B12 road
 
smaller

S Alabama -15

>> gonna post at 15, before I forget - but will actually wait a bit to see if it drops a bit before playing ....(newsletters might like CM?)

Normally a great spot for CM - but they've already been to Sparty and Notre Dame last week - gotta be beat up a bit, with MAC opener on deck (EMU)

REALLY IMPORTANT game for (building) SAla - 3rd year under HC Wommack - off biggest win in program history with JMU on deck - a struggle here at home would be horrible - they are big, and physical, and should be able to bully CM.

$$ note 'letdown' is already factored into the line - should be probably 17'/18 - (SP+ 22)
 
extra small HUNCH play (0.25)

HOGS +17'

Hogs are beat up and have struggled so far - so tough to justify, just think they play their azz off here - RB Sanders is practicing and running "well", but still may not play (swelling in knee comes/goes)
 
bookieassassin said:
not really - haven't looked at much - sides are stressing my old brain / do everything by hand so totals are too much work ha
>> tho that's where the $$ is no doubt, especially openers

Sorry for the brutal advice on Kansas St - before week 3 - KSU should/would be favored by 9 or so ..... The loss at Mizzou is worth a 5 point deduction in their PR? HOW? > you can't bump up UCF for crushing NOVA can you? It's gonna be depressing if I'm wrong on this one .... may have to channel my inner Yakuza and chop of the pinkie on my non-drinking hand > will post on YT so those following can enjoy ............. :shocked:

If they weren't such a terrible road team, I would play Memphis - OVER looks like the way to go - Mizzou D might relax a bit off that huge effort - Memphis plays little D on the road

* interesting that Action N is posting a WEATHER REPORT for this game ha
Click to expand...
b a on your early read i got kansas st. @-6 rather largely but right now they are offering a -4 ??????advice please.... the old Boston man" winners `1941, p;ease, respectfully, thank you, SIR!
 
bookieassassin said:
added smaller

E Michigan +6'

waited too long, paid small tax

This one should be 2' - Their performance vs UMass was eggzactly what we should expect right? It should mean a ZERO reduction in their PR #. This is of course one of the highest % plays year in/out - EM as a road dog. For some odd reason, oddsmakers give us added value because they absolutely stink at home, and when favored.

Smaller only because they have a chance to compete in the MAC this year - (their season goals were to just make a bowl). Jax St may have too much speed .....?
Click to expand...
I made this a full unit play….I Also think Ohio St will get away from the Irish late and I’m grabbing that hook with W. Ky +3.5.
Fly EMU Eagles!

But I’m rusty as hell and batting a depressing 17-22 ATS. Next year remind the Wolfe to start wagering week 4 and everything prior is preseason, crap shoot damnit! I’m a depressing 17-22…. Time to turn this ship around. :badass:

GL this weekend BA.
 
puppylove said:
b a on your early read i got kansas st. @-6 rather largely but right now they are offering a -4 ??????advice please.... the old Boston man" winners `1941, p;ease, respectfully, thank you, SIR!
Click to expand...

hey buddy, sorry forgot to reply last week .....

replied earlier (#10,15) - only thing to add is that st RB Ward is hurt too, and may not play - I wouldn't add to it - maybe be ready to add/buy back live or 2H
>> I have no idea where this UCF love is coming from, they whipped Nova and Kent State, and struggled at Boise, plus their QB is out for sure - now they're only 1/2 points worse that Kan State?
 
extra small ....

Ga St TT over 27'

Kinda like the 7, but that GSU D has burned me too many times recently - both offenses should move the ball, GSU should keep pace.
>> GSU is great on the road, CC stinks at home
 
I’m gonna be on a lot of these same sides for a lot of the same reasons. Let me just say that makes me feel very good. Travel a major issue this week so I’ll be getting a late start.
 
bookieassassin said:
hey buddy, sorry forgot to reply last week .....

replied earlier (#10,15) - only thing to add is that st RB Ward is hurt too, and may not play - I wouldn't add to it - maybe be ready to add/buy back live or 2H
>> I have no idea where this UCF love is coming from, they whipped Nova and Kent State, and struggled at Boise, plus their QB is out for sure - now they're only 1/2 points worse that Kan State?
Click to expand...
thank you B.A. and thank GOD for my M.L.B.!!!!going to stay with my/your kansas st. -6 somehow feeling that you still feel o.k. about it...
 
puppylove said:
B.A. need update opinion on my kansas state play @-6 , advice please should I negate the play ?
Click to expand...

if nervous - and/or don't want to bet in-game/2H - play UCF ML smaller maybe
>> asking wrong guy maybe ha - I typically fade (late) line movement - respect (early)
 
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added dumb play ....

Utah St +5 / ML

Horrific spot for JMU - off 2 tough, emotional wins with their 'BOWL GAME' with S Bama on deck - Utah extra rest / at altitude - not as bad as they looked LW.

>>dumb because I watched the line drop - as I drooled and soiled myself - then paid small tax to get a line I could had at + $
 
bookieassassin said:
added dumb play ....

Utah St +5 / ML

Horrific spot for JMU - off 2 tough, emotional wins with their 'BOWL GAME' with S Bama on deck - Utah extra rest / at altitude - not as bad as they looked LW.

>>dumb because I watched the line drop - as I drooled and soiled myself - then paid small tax to get a line I could had at + $
Click to expand...
good luck this week mate.
 
Kill that Book Assassin….it’s time to get hot. Wish you the best, really like your card Brotha. I missed the damn hook on Hawaii…damn day job getting in the way. Ahhh well at -3 I just gotta prepare myself for that potential push. My book being a prick lately about buying around 3 at -125.:fistshake: Fuggem let’s go Rainbow Warriors!!
 
CPLMP
*cannot possibly lose ML parlay


Louisville
-565

Kansas
-310

Oregon
-837

Nebraska
-1300

South Alabama
-711

$100 > $114

KEY on these is fading the weak (situational or toothless anyway) dog, instead of playing the favorite that "no way they lose bro!!"
 
bookieassassin said:
Kan St -2' 2h
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B.X. I am totally a very tired 81 year old male who had a great football day/night,,,thank you SIR is all I have in the tank that is left...lots to tell you but must be tomorrow! also, see the wo;fe popping in and out of your stuff,,,,he knows where the winners are!!!!!! B.A. GREATEST,,,,winners41 aka puppylove, simply because the site never filled my request to change it ,,,,for me to you 99% of the time,,,,,night night , thx,thx,thx,thx....wow!
 
puppylove said:
B.X. I am totally a very tired 81 year old male who had a great football day/night,,,thank you SIR is all I have in the tank that is left...lots to tell you but must be tomorrow! also, see the wo;fe popping in and out of your stuff,,,,he knows where the winners are!!!!!! B.A. GREATEST,,,,winners41 aka puppylove, simply because the site never filled my request to change it ,,,,for me to you 99% of the time,,,,,night night , thx,thx,thx,thx....wow!
Click to expand...
Did you need a name change?
 
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