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Week 4 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Can't be upset with the final results of the week, which were 9-6, bringing the season total to 21-17-1. I'll cry a little bit about the Wyoming/Utah loss though because that one was a pretty painful front door cover, and another example of bad 2 point conversion luck. Wyoming scored late to make the game 24-6, then understandably went for 2. If they get it, we're home free because even if Utah scores in the last few minutes, we're still at 23 on a 24 point spread. If not, we lose..no chance of a push at +24. Of course they missed it, so a loss is clearly in play. However, Utah was not in any hurry to score and appeared to be mostly content with running out the clock. The problem, however, was that Wyoming was not giving up 5 or 6 yards per carry, which would effectively run out the clock, but 10-15 yards per carry which at that rate left enough time to score another TD, which they did on the last play before they would have kneeled out the clock. Oh well, tough one, but I'm sure I'll get one of those, right? RIGHT? On to the week.


Iowa -2
TCU -7
Memphis +7.5
Miami(OH) +2
Eastern Michigan +2.5
Auburn +7
Tulane +12
Northern Illinois +23.5
Kansas -12.5
Kennesaw St +4.5
Missouri -9.5
Miami(FL) -7
East Carolina +6.5

1. Iowa -2 @Rutgers (BOL) : We know that Iowa QB Mark Gronowski, to be charitable, has NOT yet met expectations for what he might be for Iowa coming in from South Dakota State. He stunk in his first two games, but hey, he looked passable against UMass, so they're dancing in the streets in Iowa City. Rutgers and QB Kaliakmanis have looked very solid on offense so far this year, especially in the passing game, but that's been against 2 MAC squads and Norfolk State, so I hope so. Iowa will provide easily their stiffest competition of the year for that offense, so it will be a step up. On the flip side, Iowa has already been in a tough road environment at Iowa State, but still found a way to be right in the game at the end despite an absolutely putrid Qb performance from Gronowski. The Hawkeyes will probably get some class relief going against this Rutgers defense as well because the Knights have been terrible so far. Ohio is pretty good on offense, but they made Parker Navarro look like vintage Michael Vick, and a week after being incapable of getting a first down at Wisconsin, Dequan Finn averaged 11 yards per attempt for a pretty terrible Miami(oh) passing game. Rutgers ranks 124th in yards per play against, 128th against the run and 112th in yards per pass attempt against. In short, it's not a daunting task for any offense. Also, although Rutgers is great in the non-con as a home favorite, they are lost as a home dog in conference under Schiano going 3-12 ATS in that role since he's been there. This defense hasn't shown that they can stop anyone, and believe it or not, Iowa can run the ball a little bit and has been able to convert third downs. Rutgers is going to have to be very effective on offense to win this, and I think that will be a tall task against the best defense they've played by far.
 
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2. @TCU -6.5 v SMU (BR) : I don't think this is enough points. SMU just doesn't seem to have the same mojo as last year, and that's been kind of obvious in all 3 games they've played. East Texas A&M was very competitive with them on the box score (400-355 total yards) only to get destroyed the next week by Florida State in a 729-197 yard destruction. The following week that gagged the game away against a vulnerable Baylor team at home, giving up 600 yards in the process and then last week they did a slow waltz with Missouri State for 3 1/2 hours before finally getting a late TD to put that game out of reach. Now they go to TCU, who got embarrassed by the Ponies last year in Dallas. We have limited intel on TCU, but what we saw was very good in that opening domination of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. I am a big fan of Josh Hoover, and he's got 3 very viable receiving targets in Jordan Dwyer, Joseph Manjack(great name) and leading returning receiver Eric McAllister, who hasn't done much but they expect big things from. I think there's a very strong chance TCU puts up numbers similar to Baylor in this one because SMU's pass defense has been porous to say the least. There is some concern with TCu's pass defense because it's been sloppy so far, but I think the Frogs are going to be motivated here and this SMU team just strikes me as "lacking". If they rise up and take TCU to the wire, good for them, but I'll be surprised if TCU doesn't take care of business here.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Can't be upset with the final results of the week, which were 9-6, bringing the season total to 21-17-1. I'll cry a little bit about the Wyoming/Utah loss though because that one was a pretty painful front door cover, and another example of bad 2 point conversion luck. Wyoming scored late to make the game 24-6, then understandably went for 2. If they get it, we're home free because even if Utah scores in the last few minutes, we're still at 23 on a 24 point spread. If not, we lose..no chance of a push at +24. Of course they missed it, so a loss is clearly in play. However, Utah was not in any hurry to score and appeared to be mostly content with running out the clock. The problem, however, was that Wyoming was not giving up 5 or 6 yards per carry, which would effectively run out the clock, but 10-15 yards per carry which at that rate left enough time to score another TD, which they did on the last play before they would have kneeled out the clock. Oh well, tough one, but I'm sure I'll get one of those, right? RIGHT? On to the week.

1. Iowa -2 @Rutgers (BOL) : We know that Iowa QB Mark Gronowski, to be charitable, has NOT yet met expectations for what he might be for Iowa coming in from South Dakota State. He stunk in his first two games, but hey, he looked passable against UMass, so they're dancing in the streets in Iowa City. Rutgers and QB Kaliakmanis have looked very solid on offense so far this year, especially in the passing game, but that's been against 2 MAC squads and Norfolk State, so I hope so. Iowa will provide easily their stiffest competition of the year for that offense, so it will be a step up. On the flip side, Iowa has already been in a tough road environment at Iowa State, but still found a way to be right in the game at the end despite an absolutely putrid Qb performance from Gronowski. The Hawkeyes will probably get some class relief going against this Rutgers defense as well because the Knights have been terrible so far. Ohio is pretty good on offense, but they made Parker Navarro look like vintage Michael Vick, and a week after being incapable of getting a first down at Wisconsin, Dequan Finn averaged 11 yards per attempt for a pretty terrible Miami(oh) passing game. Rutgers ranks 124th in yards per play against, 128th against the run and 112th in yards per pass attempt against. In short, it's not a daunting task for any offense. Also, although Rutgers is great in the non-con as a home favorite, they are lost as a home dog in conference under Schiano going 3-12 ATS in that role since he's been there. This defense hasn't shown that they can stop anyone, and believe it or not, Iowa can run the ball a little bit and has been able to convert third downs. Rutgers is going to have to be very effective on offense to win this, and I think that will be a tall task against the best defense they've played by far.
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IOWA does this every year usually...... slow start, then they look much better that 1st B10 road game.

@ Minny -2' - W 38-21
@ Penn St +14'- L 31-0
@ Rutgers -8 - W 27-10
@ Maryland -3 - W 51-14
@ Minny -3' - W 35-7
@ Michigan +4' - L 10-3
@ Minnesota -7 - W 48 - 31
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @TCU -6.5 v SMU (BR) : I don't think this is enough points. SMU just doesn't seem to have the same mojo as last year, and that's been kind of obvious in all 3 games they've played. East Texas A&M was very competitive with them on the box score (400-355 total yards) only to get destroyed the next week by Florida State in a 729-197 yard destruction. The following week that gagged the game away against a vulnerable Baylor team at home, giving up 600 yards in the process and then last week they did a slow waltz with Missouri State for 3 1/2 hours before finally getting a late TD to put that game out of reach. Now they go to TCU, who got embarrassed by the Ponies last year in Dallas. We have limited intel on TCU, but what we saw was very good in that opening domination of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. I am a big fan of Josh Hoover, and he's got 3 very viable receiving targets in Jordan Dwyer, Joseph Manjack(great name) and leading returning receiver Eric McAllister, who hasn't done much but they expect big things from. I think there's a very strong chance TCU puts up numbers similar to Baylor in this one because SMU's pass defense has been porous to say the least. There is some concern with TCu's pass defense because it's been sloppy so far, but I think the Frogs are going to be motivated here and this SMU team just strikes me as "lacking". If they rise up and take TCU to the wire, good for them, but I'll be surprised if TCU doesn't take care of business here.
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Like this play. SMU is missing something(s) this season. And while "revenge" situations are mostly overrated Dykes is schizo to some extent and he no doubt remembers the 66 that SMU put up last season. As noted elsewhere these teams have played 103 times since 1915 and this is the last one in the series. Should be intense, the schools don't care for each other. TCU with too much at home.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @TCU -6.5 v SMU (BR) : I don't think this is enough points. SMU just doesn't seem to have the same mojo as last year, and that's been kind of obvious in all 3 games they've played. East Texas A&M was very competitive with them on the box score (400-355 total yards) only to get destroyed the next week by Florida State in a 729-197 yard destruction. The following week that gagged the game away against a vulnerable Baylor team at home, giving up 600 yards in the process and then last week they did a slow waltz with Missouri State for 3 1/2 hours before finally getting a late TD to put that game out of reach. Now they go to TCU, who got embarrassed by the Ponies last year in Dallas. We have limited intel on TCU, but what we saw was very good in that opening domination of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. I am a big fan of Josh Hoover, and he's got 3 very viable receiving targets in Jordan Dwyer, Joseph Manjack(great name) and leading returning receiver Eric McAllister, who hasn't done much but they expect big things from. I think there's a very strong chance TCU puts up numbers similar to Baylor in this one because SMU's pass defense has been porous to say the least. There is some concern with TCu's pass defense because it's been sloppy so far, but I think the Frogs are going to be motivated here and this SMU team just strikes me as "lacking". If they rise up and take TCU to the wire, good for them, but I'll be surprised if TCU doesn't take care of business here.
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HAHAHAHA!! "...last week (SMU) did a slow waltz with Missouri State for 3 1/2 hours..." That's top form Br@ssknux right there.
 
I don’t agree with TCU because I don’t think they are good enough to eclipse the line. In the other hand you are correct SMU is not I. 2024 mode.
I’m not impressed enough with TCU and in my opinion the line is inflated. That’s my main reason for my opinion, it’s the line.

TCU was only -3 on the road to a crappy UNC team now it’s -6 to a better much team than UNC. Even in a Down year for SMU they are way better than UNC, and SMU’s previous lines this season support my thinking.

I got +7 so TCU has to beat me. It’s a fun matchup though

Best wishes and I always enjoy seeing your thread. 🔥🔥🔥
 
Dykes used to coach at SMU. TCU blocked SMU from joining the Big 12 forcing SMU to buy their way into the ACC. SMU humiliated TCU last year. So much that Dykes was ejected from the game. When is the last time a head coach got ejected from a game?

This is the last battle between the schools in the "Iron Skillet" rivalry. Dykes will have his boys extremely fired up for this one at home.
 
3. @ Memphis +7.5(-120) v Arkansas (BR): Arkansas has certainly been a juggernaut on offense, and that was on display last week as they gave us a sweet cover, but of course, gagged it away at the end on an excruciating fumble. Now the Hogs, coming off that tough loss and looking ahead to a home tilt with Notre Dame, have to make the drive up north and lay a TD against a competent Memphis squad that can put up some points themselves. We don't know a ton about this particular Memphis team because they've played nobody, but they've had several guys who have looked good, including QB Brendon Lewis who was perfectly competent at Nevada previously and RB Sutton Smith whose numbers jump off the page over at PFF. They've also got some explosiveness at wideout, and that appears to be an area of concern for the Arkansas secondary. The bigger concern is the fact that the Hogs cannot get off the field on 3rd down, ranking 130th. The good news is they are 1st on 3rd down on offense. In this game, however, I can't imagine that Memphis gets Arkansas's best effort, given the spot, and we'll probably see as good as Memphis can give. Also, Silverfield has been cooking with gas as a home dog, and I'm sure the Tigers will be bright eyed and bushy tailed for the noon start. This Hogs offense with Blake Washington and Green are a handful, but I think Memphis's D might be better than Ole Miss's. They're at 9th in yards per play against in the young season and 3rd against the run on a per rush basis, so there's some upside there. Tough spot for the Hogs against a team that's a good candidate to knock them off. 7.5 is more than enough for me.
 
4. @Miami(OH) +2 v UNLV (BR): The line it has-a-fallen. I don't really care though because I think Miami is probably going to win this game. UNLV is 3-0, but I don't know if it's humanly possible to have a more hollow 3-0 record. In their opener they endured a bloody street fight with the Bengals of Idaho State and by the grace of God, were able to stagger out of there with a win, despite giving up 555 yards and 7.2 yards per play. After that they had a taffy pull with Sam Houston State, playing the Bearkats to a virtual statistical standstill. SHSU by the way is currently ranked in Sagarin at #163, right between West Georgia and Towson. Last time out, they won at home against but were outgained by 77 yards on the process. You know the Bruins right? The guys that New Mexico pounded so unmercifully that UCLA had no choice but to launch the overmatched DeSean Foster? Right. It's a weak 3-0. On the flip side, Miami has played 2 Big ten teams. In their opener, they were completely shut down by Wisconsin on offense, but played well defensively. In game 2 they improved quite a bit on offense against a weaker defense in Rutgers and were very unlucky in losing the cover. This has always been a well coached team with outstanding special teams who will probably continue to improve as the season wears on. Both teams were off last week, but I think the week off will be used more efficiently by Chuck Martin, and it came at a good time. This is Mullen's first road trip with a new squad, and Miami represents the best team they've played so far, without a doubt, while UNLV represents some class relief for the Redhawks after their Big Ten gauntlet to start the year. I'd like a few more points, but I think 2 will be enough.
 
5. @Eastern Michigan +2.5 v LaLa (BOL): 2 of the final cuts from my card last week were Eastern Michigan and Missouri. Would have won both of them, and I still am not sure why I didn't write up Mizzou. EMU was at Kentucky who had the offensive profile more the Eagles speed and Mizzou played this LaLa squad, fresh off losing the QB they were excited about, former big time SEC recruit Walker Howard. In week 1, Howard did not look the part as the Rajun Cajuns were unable to make much headway against the mighty Rice Owls. Then in the fourth quarter, Howard went out with a season ending injury. The backup Daniel Beale came in and failed to complete a pass in 6 attempts and the Cajuns bowed out 14-12. The following week, they handled McNeese by exclusively running the ball, with Beale able to muster only 86 yards on 14/22 passing. Then they played a real defense in Missouri and it was a bloodbath. The Cajuns managed 121 total yards, and 84 of them came on an 84 yard fluke run by RB Zylan Perry. Other than that they had 42 total yards on about that many plays. Beale went 1-8 for 5 yards, so they threw the third stringer out there, some guy named "Lunch Winfield". He was better! He needed only 6 attempts to get a completion. For -1 yards, but hey, he's just starting out. This might be the worst start for a passing game in college football in the past 20 years. That's good for EMU because they've gotten steamrolled by the offenses they've played so far. However, La La has played the Sagarin #164 schedule while the Eagles have played #42. They're 0-3 and have an embarrassing loss to Long Island in there, but now they're back to the dog role they relish under Chris Creighton. Although their defense is terrible, the offense has been good, piling up 461 yards against an SEC defense last week with former Michigan State QB Noah Kim at the controls. The Eagles are desperate for a win, and they can play enough offense to offset this putrid Cajun offense that probably will only be able to score if they break a couple long runs. If there's ever an offense that the EMU defense can handle, it MIGHT be this one. An offense this bad should not be a road favorite, so I have to play it.
 
6. Auburn +7(-116) @Oklahoma (BOL): I just think this is too many points for a couple of evenly matched teams. on the LOS, Auburn completely handled Oklahoma last year only to get beat by a couple of completely ridiculous plays, including a pick 6 of Payton Thorne that summed up Auburn's sad sack season last year(and stole a cover from me). Oklahoma, in my opinion still has issues on the OL, while both of the lines of scrimmage for Auburn are significantly above average. Oklahoma knows they need to stop the Auburn running game, especially with Jackson Arnold running the ball, but can they? We'll see. If they do, Auburn has some outstanding receivers that haven't really been unleashed yet. I'm a little worried about Auburn's secondary in this one, but they've been well coached back there over the past couple of years, and their DL should be able to get pressure on John Mateer. Auburn has already been through the flames on the road, opening with a very nice win at Baylor, so I doubt they'll be adversely affected by the environment. I also think Arnold is going to make some plays in the passing game. No evidence to back that up...just a hunch. I'll take the points here.
 
spottie2935 said:
I don’t agree with TCU because I don’t think they are good enough to eclipse the line. In the other hand you are correct SMU is not I. 2024 mode.
I’m not impressed enough with TCU and in my opinion the line is inflated. That’s my main reason for my opinion, it’s the line.

TCU was only -3 on the road to a crappy UNC team now it’s -6 to a better much team than UNC. Even in a Down year for SMU they are way better than UNC, and SMU’s previous lines this season support my thinking.

I got +7 so TCU has to beat me. It’s a fun matchup though

Best wishes and I always enjoy seeing your thread. 🔥🔥🔥
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Spottie, I think it's hard to compare lines when it comes to that opener with UNC. Nobody had any idea what UNC would look like, so that line was a total guess, not really based on anything. I'll agree it's a bit of a heavy line for a rivalry game though
 
Brass BOL w you on TCU, and like your thoughts on Memphis they are really underrated imo and have some very good offensive talent. I played over there vs. side but would be dog.
 
8. Tulane +12 @Ole Miss (BOL) : If 3-0 Tulane has designs on being the group of 5 playoff participant, they have to win this game, or at least be in it until the end. If 3-0 Ole Miss has designs on making the playoff, they need to win next week at home against LSU. It's definitely a sandwich spot for the Rebs, who are coming a tough win against Arkansas last week while looking ahead to LSU next week. They'll also be playing a legit Tulane squad who has already easily dispatched Northwestern, and beat Duke a lot more soundly than the final score and box score would suggest. Jake Retzlaff has surprisingly(to me) fit in about as perfectly as Jon Sumrall could hope coming in late after his unceremonious dumping from BYU for unclean behavior. Defensively, their numbers could be better, but a lot of the opponents output has been in garbage time. I'm not sold on the Ole Miss defense, which should be clear enough based on how they looked against Arkansas last week. Also, the assumption is that Austin Simmons will be back in there because Both he and Chambliss are banged up, and apparently Simmons is hurt the least? The combination of this spread along with the spot and ultimately the worthiness of the upstart has me looking to back the dog here.
 
9. Northern Illinois +23.5 @Mississippi State: Mississippi State is clearly a much better team this year than they've been, but can they cover a big spread like this against one of the best road dogs in the country? Well, you know what side I'll be taking. NIU is an auto play as a dog and an auto fade as a favorite. Thomas Hammock has played the perfect style for this since he's been in DeKalb: Slow pace, good defense, reliable special teams. If they get anything on offense its a bonus, but their identity as a team makes them a covering machine against teams that rarely find themselves as sizable favorites. Not much analysis here. NIU is an autoplay in scenarios like this.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Spottie, I think it's hard to compare lines when it comes to that opener with UNC. Nobody had any idea what UNC would look like, so that line was a total guess, not really based on anything. I'll agree it's a bit of a heavy line for a rivalry game though
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Yes to some extent but the original power rating set by the book (line setter) stands as is. I have an issue with how the TCU power rating is being adjusted in this game. That’s my point, I’m not criticizing your pick as you are a quality and experienced capper that I appreciate a lot.

I see a lot of people judge this game differently than I. Im singling out this play because it’s the one I see consistently, many people like TCU.

Maybe im wrong. I’ll just leave it here and move on from trying to make more of a case. I wish you nothing but success.

I think I have rightly assessed this game as a low line team and TCU is staying true to this. My evaluation of TCU is correct they are getting favorable lines currently and dating back to last seasons close. I have tagged them but at this point their lines are not adjusting too much as of yet.

It’s kind of like your N. ILL dog selection. Out of nowhere Miss St. rebound from demise as caught them in an escalated line.

This weeks TCU game appeared to be as one of line escalation but as I have spent the last 2 hours digging deeper it is not.

Like I said I appreciate what you do and your posts and words bring my clarity.

🙏
 
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spottie2935 said:
Yes to some extent but the original power rating set by the book (line setter) stands as is. I have an issue with how the TCU power rating is being adjusted in this game. That’s my point, I’m not criticizing your pick as you are a quality and experienced capper that I appreciate a lot.

I see a lot of people judge this game differently than I. Im singling out this play because it’s the one I see consistently, many people like TCU.

Maybe im wrong. I’ll just leave it here and move on from trying to make more of a case. I wish you nothing but success.

I think I have rightly assessed this game as a low line team and TCU is staying true to this. My evaluation of TCU is correct they are getting favorable lines currently and dating back to last seasons close. I have tagged them but at this point their lines are not adjusting too much as of yet.

It’s kind of like your N. ILL dog selection. Out of nowhere Miss St. rebound from demise as caught them in an escalated line.

This weeks TCU game appeared to be as one of line escalation but as I have spent the last 2 hours digging deeper it is not.

Like I said I appreciate what you do and your posts and words bring my clarity.

🙏
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Thanks Spottie! Appreciate you checking in. Good stuff here. BOL and thanks for the kind words.
 
10. @Kansas -12.5 v West Virginia (BOL): I went against West Virginia last week, and it was kind of a foolish play, honestly. I trusted Narduzzi in the road dog role, but what is it they say about trends? Make up your own cliche I guess but the point is, they don't pay the mortgage. Now the Mountaineers, who are definitely flawed, come down from the extreme high of coming back from 10 points down late to win against a rival, and now travel across the country to play the Jayhawks. Tough break for Rich Rod here as he gets to walk into Lawrence catching Leipold off a bye. It's not surprising that Kansas is 5-1 in their last 6 ATS in that scenario, and this looks like a bad matchup. Despite having a close game with Missouri 2 weeks ago, there was a lot to address for the Jayhawks as they were outgained by the Tigers 595-226. Despite those numbers, I think Kansas has looked good on both lines, especially on defense in the front 7. West Virginia played with a ton of emotion last week which carried them, but the reality of losing their top 2 players on offense is likely to hit them like a ton of bricks. QB Nico Marichol had a nice game last week, but he is limited, as is the entire offense. Their DC hire from Oklahoma looks like a great get, but this is still a brand new group of defenders who will have to try to figure out all that pre snap motion that Kansas does. This just looks like a long game for the Mountaineers, and a pretty bad spot. I see the Jayhawks pulling away in this one.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. @Miami(OH) +2 v UNLV (BR): The line it has-a-fallen. I don't really care though because I think Miami is probably going to win this game. UNLV is 3-0, but I don't know if it's humanly possible to have a more hollow 3-0 record. In their opener they endured a bloody street fight with the Bengals of Idaho State and by the grace of God, were able to stagger out of there with a win, despite giving up 555 yards and 7.2 yards per play. After that they had a taffy pull with Sam Houston State, playing the Bearkats to a virtual statistical standstill. SHSU by the way is currently ranked in Sagarin at #163, right between West Georgia and Towson. Last time out, they won at home against but were outgained by 77 yards on the process. You know the Bruins right? The guys that New Mexico pounded so unmercifully that UCLA had no choice but to launch the overmatched DeSean Foster? Right. It's a weak 3-0. On the flip side, Miami has played 2 Big ten teams. In their opener, they were completely shut down by Wisconsin on offense, but played well defensively. In game 2 they improved quite a bit on offense against a weaker defense in Rutgers and were very unlucky in losing the cover. This has always been a well coached team with outstanding special teams who will probably continue to improve as the season wears on. Both teams were off last week, but I think the week off will be used more efficiently by Chuck Martin, and it came at a good time. This is Mullen's first road trip with a new squad, and Miami represents the best team they've played so far, without a doubt, while UNLV represents some class relief for the Redhawks after their Big Ten gauntlet to start the year. I'd like a few more points, but I think 2 will be enough.
Br@ssknux said:
10. @Kansas -12.5 v West Virginia (BOL): I went against West Virginia last week, and it was kind of a foolish play, honestly. I trusted Narduzzi in the road dog role, but what is it they say about trends? Make up your own cliche I guess but the point is, they don't pay the mortgage. Now the Mountaineers, who are definitely flawed, come down from the extreme high of coming back from 10 points down late to win against a rival, and now travel across the country to play the Jayhawks. Tough break for Rich Rod here as he gets to walk into Lawrence catching Leipold off a bye. It's not surprising that Kansas is 5-1 in their last 6 ATS in that scenario, and this looks like a bad matchup. Despite having a close game with Missouri 2 weeks ago, there was a lot to address for the Jayhawks as they were outgained by the Tigers 595-226. Despite those numbers, I think Kansas has looked good on both lines, especially on defense in the front 7. West Virginia played with a ton of emotion last week which carried them, but the reality of losing their top 2 players on offense is likely to hit them like a ton of bricks. QB Nico Marichol had a nice game last week, but he is limited, as is the entire offense. Their DC hire from Oklahoma looks like a great get, but this is still a brand new group of defenders who will have to try to figure out all that pre snap motion that Kansas does. This just looks like a long game for the Mountaineers, and a pretty bad spot. I see the Jayhawks pulling away in this one.
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ugh, was really
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Ugh, was really hoping to wake up to a UNLV write up 😭😭😭😭
 
11. @Kennesaw State +4.5 v Arkansas State (BOL): I'd have liked a little more value here, but it looks like I'm not the only guy on the Owls. By the way, I love that we have another group of Owls in FBS. Can you name the other 3? Arkansas State walks into this one off a very tough loss to Iowa State that they really got hosed on. The Red Wolves had 2 TDs called back in the 4th quarter on totally phantom calls that probably would have changed the outcome of the game. That's a major pet peeve of mine. If you miss a call, fine. But don't invent a call out of nothing because you thought you saw something. That's total incompetence. But I digress, back to this game. Tough spot for Arky State coming off that loss, and now they have to travel to Kennesaw, a very small stadium and get up for a team that is pretty good. They gave Wake all they could handle in week 1, and although Indiana's offense overwhelmed them, I really thought their QB Amari Odom looked great in their game in Bloomington. He averaged 11 yards per attempt and 17 yards per completion and he didn't have any 50+ yard plays to skew his numbers. He was very solid, they just couldn't punch anything in against that Hoosier defense in the red zone. Kennesaw used 2 QBs in their game with Merrimac last week, but I'm hoping Odom is the primary guy. Obviously, Arky State hung with a big boy last week, but the more we see from Iowa State(and their opponents) the more they look a little questionable. Even having said that, Iowa State's plodding attack racked up 460 yards on the Red Wolves and they had no chance against a real offense like Arkansas, so I think the Owls will be able to move the ball on them. These small conference short home dogs have been solid so far, I think this is another example.
 
MikeU said:
Ugh, was really hoping to wake up to a UNLV write up 😭😭😭😭
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I like Rebs in general but don’t think this a great week to mess with them. Mostly cause the sos disparity and I’m assuming a much higher perception on them against cake compared to Ohio facing big10 teams. Not sure we see their best game on an early start in Ohio either.
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
Dykes used to coach at SMU. TCU blocked SMU from joining the Big 12 forcing SMU to buy their way into the ACC. SMU humiliated TCU last year. So much that Dykes was ejected from the game. When is the last time a head coach got ejected from a game?

This is the last battle between the schools in the "Iron Skillet" rivalry. Dykes will have his boys extremely fired up for this one at home.
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We work with a guy that is very good friends with Sonny. I can promise, if Sonny could suit up he would. Big game.

GL this week br@ss
 
12. @Missouri -9.5 v South Carolina (BOL): I think you can make a case that Missouri has been one of the most impressive teams in the country so far. I was originally skeptical, since they lost quite a few mainstays from their team last year, but my goodness. They are outgaining their opponents by 500 yards per game. I realize the competition has been overmatched, but 2 of them are Kansas and La La(who isn't great this year but has been a solid group of 5 teams for a long time) so I am taking them very seriously. I wasn't a believer in Beau Pribula, but he looks like a clear upgrade over Brady Cook, and their 2 main portal skill guys, Mississippi State WR Kevin Coleman and La Mo RB Ahmad Hardy have been fantastic. Especially Hardy, who was pretty much La Mo's whole offense last year when they almost made a bowl. He's averaging 8 yards a carry, almost 6 yards after contact and leads the nation in missed tackles forced. Not bad. Defensively, nobody has been able to get anything going against them. South Carolina, on the other hand, has not looked the part at all. They had to fight for their lives to escape VT and the since fired Brent Pry and got completely embarrassed by Vandy once Vandy got their bearings about them. If Luke Doty was going to play QB for them this week, I would have laid up to 21, maybe more. As it stands, LaNorris Sellers looks like he's going to play, but they had to make that happen, whether he's completely ready to go or not. Their defense is nowhere near where it was last year, and their skill guys, other than Nic Harbour, don't scare anyone. My only minor concern here is that the Gamecocks were so money on the road last year, but this is about the worst spot they could walk into. Nobody gets super excited to play Mizzou, but you're going to need to be this year or they'll clown you. Also, Mizzou lost a really tough one in Columbia when they had that Gamecock squad reeling only to give up a late score to lose it. They'll be ready, and I'm afraid it's gonna be ugly for the Gamecocks.
 
twinkie13 said:
We work with a guy that is very good friends with Sonny. I can promise, if Sonny could suit up he would. Big game.

GL this week br@ss
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Thanks Twink! I'm gonna be in BR this week. Would love to see you, but I know you aren't very close. Let me know where I should eat when I'm there.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @TCU -6.5 v SMU (BR) : I don't think this is enough points. SMU just doesn't seem to have the same mojo as last year, and that's been kind of obvious in all 3 games they've played. East Texas A&M was very competitive with them on the box score (400-355 total yards) only to get destroyed the next week by Florida State in a 729-197 yard destruction. The following week that gagged the game away against a vulnerable Baylor team at home, giving up 600 yards in the process and then last week they did a slow waltz with Missouri State for 3 1/2 hours before finally getting a late TD to put that game out of reach. Now they go to TCU, who got embarrassed by the Ponies last year in Dallas. We have limited intel on TCU, but what we saw was very good in that opening domination of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. I am a big fan of Josh Hoover, and he's got 3 very viable receiving targets in Jordan Dwyer, Joseph Manjack(great name) and leading returning receiver Eric McAllister, who hasn't done much but they expect big things from. I think there's a very strong chance TCU puts up numbers similar to Baylor in this one because SMU's pass defense has been porous to say the least. There is some concern with TCu's pass defense because it's been sloppy so far, but I think the Frogs are going to be motivated here and this SMU team just strikes me as "lacking". If they rise up and take TCU to the wire, good for them, but I'll be surprised if TCU doesn't take care of business here.
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My gut told me this number was too big, and I played the SMU moneyline, but I'm starting to have doubts. I will point out, however, that this is the 11th time Sonny's faced a team that scored 55+ in the previous season's game, and he's just 1-9 ATS in those games (1-4 ATS when he was the coach for the previous season's game). Then again, Dykes is 6-0 ATS at TCU (by an average of 20 points) in revenge games where the prior margin was 10-40 points.

Anyway, here's a wonderful article about this rivalry and the 1935 SMU-TCU game. "Bragging rights for all eternity" are on the line again.

www.espn.com

'Bragging rights for all eternity': An ode to the Iron Skillet rivalry

Looking back at the history of the SMU-TCU grudge match before its 104th, and potentially final, edition.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks Twink! I'm gonna be in BR this week. Would love to see you, but I know you aren't very close. Let me know where I should eat when I'm there.
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Will do. Sadly, you right in the middle of where the great food resides just not in BR lol but I’ll take care of you 🫡
 
Not great to see us on some opposite sides today. Good luck Brass, one of us will be in better spirits than the other by the end of the day
 
13. @Miami(FL) -7(-120) v Florida (BR): I haven't actually bet this yet because I think pretty soon you won't have to lay the -120. Sometimes in betting, although we are all trying to be smarter than the next guy, we just need to look at what's staring us in the face. I know that's hard, because we've been burned doing that in the past, but things have really changed in the betting market. Use last week's Florida/LSU game as an example. The look ahead line a week before was around 7 or 8. In the meantime, Florida loses to USF. 10 years ago, there would have been value on Florida because they'd take a hit in the collective conscience for their loss. But now, everyone assumes a bounce back and despite that loss, there was no extra value on Florida. I didn't write it up because I'm still not sold on LSU, but there was definite value on LSU there. All the things that used to create value in the past are all worked into the line now, and in some cases, overexaggerated. If you have a very good team facing a terrible spot nowadays, you're probably going to see line value in that team just based on the merits of the two teams(Oklahoma/Temple last week). I think that's what we're seeing here. Miami is significantly better than LSU in my opinion, but despite Florida having lost by 10 to LSU, they are getting less at Miami. Why? We're expecting a bounce back, and people are thinking "Oh man, the public squares are going to be all over Miami". Well, they should be in my opinion. The reason people were high on Florida coming in was due to DJ Lagway, and I get it. They were fun to bet on late last year, and he had some hellacious flashes of brilliance. But what are the facts? Against FBS opponents, Lagway now has a 10/15 TD to INT ratio. He looked lost last week and now faces a much higher level and better coached defense while the Gators are coming off two grueling games. "But Florida looked great on defense last week!" They did, but it's clear that LSU's offense is mostly broken, as the first question in Kelly's postgame presser makes obvious. Also, is 57th in yards per play against good? That includes their game against Long Island. How about 126th in sack rate? Not great, and their best DL, Caleb banks was just ruled out for the year. Will Miami be motivated? LOL. Florida at home? Playing to position themselves for the playoff? Yeah, they'll be motivated. They're at home, they have the better QB. I might be a square but Miami -7 looks like a pretty good value.
 
I'm on OU, Florida, and South Carolina. I feel pretty good on OU, but I could definitely see those other two being awful bets if the game plays out a certain way
 
gps_3 said:
Not great to see us on some opposite sides today. Good luck Brass, one of us will be in better spirits than the other by the end of the day
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Wasn't hard to check. South Carolina too. Makes sense. Well, at least I'll know you got some winners. Hopefully we're the same on some.
 
14. @East Carolina +6.5 v BYU (BOL): I actually got this at +100 but I couldn't buy it to 7 so this might be do-able at 7 later. This just seems like a tough task for BYU. ECU is a notoriously tough team to handle as a home dog. BYU has looked as you'd expect but they've played only Stanford and Portland State. Now they travel all the way across the country yo play at ECU and Beat Bachmeier will be making his first road start as a freshman who hasn't even been on campus all that long. I like Katin Houser at QB for ECU, and the Pirates will represent a major step up in competition for the Cougs defense. ECU has played NC State already and competed very well in the box score and completely destroyed Coastal the last time out. In order to cover this one, BYU will have to play like a top level Big 12 team. They were that last year, and I like LJ Shelton and Chase Roberts on offense for them, but i don't think they're at that level overall this year. I think this is a very tough spot for them, even if they're coming off a bye.
 
Both Miami's, East Carolina and Missouri. We have a lot in common today. I like it!

Love Kennessaw St too but I can't take +4.5 when +6.5 was staring me in the face days ago.

BOL today Brass. Kill it!
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. Tulane +12 @Ole Miss (BOL) : If 3-0 Tulane has designs on being the group of 5 playoff participant, they have to win this game, or at least be in it until the end. If 3-0 Ole Miss has designs on making the playoff, they need to win next week at home against LSU. It's definitely a sandwich spot for the Rebs, who are coming a tough win against Arkansas last week while looking ahead to LSU next week. They'll also be playing a legit Tulane squad who has already easily dispatched Northwestern, and beat Duke a lot more soundly than the final score and box score would suggest. Jake Retzlaff has surprisingly(to me) fit in about as perfectly as Jon Sumrall could hope coming in late after his unceremonious dumping from BYU for unclean behavior. Defensively, their numbers could be better, but a lot of the opponents output has been in garbage time. I'm not sold on the Ole Miss defense, which should be clear enough based on how they looked against Arkansas last week. Also, the assumption is that Austin Simmons will be back in there because Both he and Chambliss are banged up, and apparently Simmons is hurt the least? The combination of this spread along with the spot and ultimately the worthiness of the upstart has me looking to back the dog here.
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Brass
Tnx at Ole Miss today son at Tulane. Hey Twink!
With you on thos play LSU on deck for Piss and banged up Qbs
Roll wave
Good luck everyone
 
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