Week 4 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

It was shaping up to be a great week, but then the evening games happened. Not good. I shouldn't complain though, because if you complain about a plus .500 week, the karma will get you the following week, so I won't. It was a 9-7 week, bringing the season total to 22-17 (.5641). Not terrible, but not particularly noteworthy.

When I was watching games last week, I noticed what seemed to be a rash of offensive pass interference calls. It almost seemed like this was a focus or something. I sincerely hope that isn't happening, because OPI calls at the college level can be some of the most damaging, and in many cases the most fraudulent calls that referees make. Why? First of all, it's a 15 yard penalty. If a referee calls that, the drive is pretty much over. Now, if there's a blatant pick play or something like that, It's more understandable, but some of these calls are some of the most ticky tack "push offs" you'll ever see. For example, in the Arkansas/BYU game, Arkansas had a 3rd and 9 around midfield. They completed a pass to the tight end who then fought to the stick to get what would have been a measurement. But no. A flag. Offensive pass interference. So instead of a potential first down at BYU's 40, it's now 3rd and 24 from their own 35. The TE's transgression? A very slight extension to extricate himself from a 2 hand grab by the DB. The crime was certainly not worth that punishment. My point is that referees need to be aware and have the proper respect for the severity of that call. At the time of the call, Arkansas was up 14-7 and driving. After the call, Jefferson was sacked on the 3rd and 24, then the Arkansas punter shanked the punt, giving the ball to BYU at midfield. That call completely changed the tenor of the game. Obviously, OPI should probably be 10 yards like it is in the NFL, but in the meantime, can we keep the OPI calls to obvious pick plays and not a slight push off against a guy hanging all over the receiver? Just a pet peeve of mine.

Also, when are teams going to figure out that trying to run from the shotgun(or worse from behind the QB in the pistol) doesn't work? Giving the ball to a running back 8 yards from the line of scrimmage from a stationary position allows the defense about 3-4 seconds before the back gets to the line of scrimmage. We see teams get stuffed on 4th and short regularly because of this because the slow developing plays allow linebackers and defensive backs to get to the point of attack in plenty of time, even if the OL is handling their assignments. I can't fathom how an OC can watch that play develop more than a couple times and think that continuing to do that is a good idea.

I considered a couple Friday night games, but I decided not to recommend any. I think Purdue is probably the right side in their game against Wisconsin, but I fear Wisconsin might have a horseshoe shoved up their collective asses, and I'm not about to watch the Badgers get 6 turnovers, commit none and cover by a point again. Purdue is going to improve, but for now, they appear to be capable of coughing up footballs at a breakneck pace for a couple more weeks, so I'll avoid that irritation. So far so good on the weeknight games, so for now Im going to go ahead and play it if I like it, so…..


Georgia State +7 WIN
Florida State ML -120 WIN
Rutgers +24 PUSH
Cincinnati +14 PUSH
Florida Atlantic +16.5 WIN
BYU +9.5 LOSS
Rice -2.5 LOSS
Washington State +3 WIN
Sam Houston State +11 LOSS
Georgia Tech +4 WIN
Notre Dame +3.5 WIN
Penn State -14 WIN
Kansas State -4.5 WIN

8-3-2

1. Georgia State +7 @Coastal Carolina: the Panthers have started 3-0, and although they haven’t played a murderers row of teams, they look good against what I think are going to end up being pretty competent teams. They had no problem at all with both UConn and Charlotte on the road and in the process, Darren Grainger has looked great in what is now his 4th year as a starter in Shawn Elliott’s system. All of their skill guys have been extremely explosive, especially their top two receivers Robert Lewis and Tailique Williams who are both averaging well over 20 yards per catch. Grainger, for his part has shown he can beat teams in multiple ways, torching UConn, who is well coached in their pass defense on the ground and then throwing for 468 yards at a Charlotte. I don’t relish going against Grayson, McCall, but as I think I mentioned before, I’m not entirely sure McCall really wants to be in Conway. He was gone in the transfer portal, and the obly reason he’s back is because his academic record was so bad that even Auburn couldn’t get him in. It’s a whole new cast of characters and a new coaching staff led by a guy nobody’s ever been excited about. Call store, providing some pretty solid opposition against UCLA, but played Jacksonville State to a statistical standstill in their last game against FBS competition. The Panthers knocked off Coastal with Grainger at the helm(albeit without McCall) the last time they went to Conway, so the venue won’t be a problem for them. I just think 7 is too much against what I think is a solid, well coached team with weapons, especially when I’m not sold on the Tim Beck version of Coastal.


GSU looks really good on offense. Grainger had no issues in this one.

 

[2daBank]

3rd and 4th and short shotgun run has gotta be the single most thing that has driven me crazy last 5 years, maybe even ahead of some the redic targeting calls, prob not more than fact a kid gets booted from game for some those totally good clean hits!!(speaking of overly punitive, getting one drive killed not as bad as losing your best defender!)

Anyways, yes it beyond stupid, feel like mizzou been doing those short yardage shotgun runs for a decade!!! Especially these days and nobody has banned the Philly special of lining big boys up behind qb and simply pushing him!! It’s practically impossible to stop that yet these Mfers can’t be bothered to teach the qb to take a snap from under center so you get lots of short yardage failure!! Anyone not pushing their qb to pick up a yard (or have a running back take snap I don’t care who!) is retarded.


Far as the offensive pi calls I guess I havnt noticed as much but there were a few games the 1st couple weeks I was getting very annoyed at how blatantly some teams are picking corners or flat out blocking them while the ball in the air!! That needs to be handled. I agree it very punitive but on the flip side so is illegal contact or defensive holding automatically giving offenses 1st downs often when defense should be getting off the field. I feel like offenses have been given so many advantages that they have to draw the line somewhere. I don’t want ticky tack shit called either way but the picking and/or flat out blocking of defenders has gotten crazy in some games and I’m all for that shit being punitive since it is probably only called once every 4-5x it getting done!

 

[twinkie13]

I can’t type as much as Bank but yes!! Get under fuxking CENTER!!

GL this week look forward to your plays/thoughts

 

[2daBank]

I can’t type as much as Bank but yes!! Get under fuxking CENTER!!

GL this week look forward to your plays/thoughts

You should hear me talk!! Lmao

For real tho, I can’t believe nfl didn’t ban the whole pushing the qb/ball carrier forward stuff (then maybe ncaa followed), now w that cat out the bag you gotta hate 1st downs if you ain’t just sneaking and pushing dude every time you need a yard or less!!

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Florida State ML (-120) @Clemson: In my opinion, this is a game between a potential national title contender and..... another team. I have a feeling both teams know this as well. It looks like Clemson is taking money right now because yesterday FSU was bordering on a FG favorite. I realize this is the first time Clemson has been a home dog since 2016, but this Clemson team hasn't resembled the ones we've been used to seeing for awhile now. Offensively, I just don't think Clemson's offense is good enough to win a game like this, and Cade Klubnik is the primary reason why. I think most would agree that he has never looked like he would cash in on his hype, and by any measure, either via his numbers or the eyeball test, he just doesn't measure up. He's completing 66% of his passes, but he's only averaging 6.5 yards per attempt and isn't even averaging 10 yards per completion. If you take away Clemson's game against FCS punching bag Charleston Southern, Klubnik has only 417 yards on 47 completions. Also, top RB Will Shipley is coming off a game in which he averaged only 3.5 yards per carry. In recent vintage, Clemson has been very reliant on him to be a playmaker for them, but he hasn't hit the end zone yet this year. Defensively, they have been good, but they couldn't get off the field when they needed to to give themselves a chance against Duke, and the other two offenses they've faced are not competitive offenses by any stretch. I had high hopes for FAU, but that's been a disaster for Tom Herman so far, as Ohio held them to 185 yards on their home field. Now they face the best offense they've seen this year by a large margin. FSU is coming of a problematic game against BC, but I can cut them a bit of slack because that was the ultimate look ahead game and also served as BC's bandanna game in which they honor a fallen former teammate, so FSU had a perfect storm of a bad spot and they didn't respond well. Everything they want to accomplish this season is tied up in winning this game, so I would be very surprised if they don't show up with a supreme effort. Jordan Travis got dinged up in that game, but there is no way in the world he will not be shot full of painkillers and at full strength for this one. I know there are a lot of smart people looking at Clemson in this one, but I just don't trust Cade Klubnik to be capable of the kind of performance Clemson will need out of him to win this game. He's shown a proclivity for turnovers in big moments, and I think that'll continue. If he comes out and makes the plays to beat FSU, I'll tip my cap and move on, but this is a not a game that Clemson can win just by being solid on defense.

I was close to tipping my cap on this one, and caught some breaks with FSU here. They did not play well, but found a way to get out of there with a win. I feel fortunate to get this one, but part of the handicap was that Klubnik has a penchant for a crucial turnover, and he coughed up a TD to the FSU defense at a crucial juncture. To be fair, I should switch out "Klubnik" for "Clemson".

 

[2daBank]

2. Florida State ML (-120) @Clemson: In my opinion, this is a game between a potential national title contender and..... another team. I have a feeling both teams know this as well. It looks like Clemson is taking money right now because yesterday FSU was bordering on a FG favorite. I realize this is the first time Clemson has been a home dog since 2016, but this Clemson team hasn't resembled the ones we've been used to seeing for awhile now. Offensively, I just don't think Clemson's offense is good enough to win a game like this, and Cade Klubnik is the primary reason why. I think most would agree that he has never looked like he would cash in on his hype, and by any measure, either via his numbers or the eyeball test, he just doesn't measure up. He's completing 66% of his passes, but he's only averaging 6.5 yards per attempt and isn't even averaging 10 yards per completion. If you take away Clemson's game against FCS punching bag Charleston Southern, Klubnik has only 417 yards on 47 completions. Also, top RB Will Shipley is coming off a game in which he averaged only 3.5 yards per carry. In recent vintage, Clemson has been very reliant on him to be a playmaker for them, but he hasn't hit the end zone yet this year. Defensively, they have been good, but they couldn't get off the field when they needed to to give themselves a chance against Duke, and the other two offenses they've faced are not competitive offenses by any stretch. I had high hopes for FAU, but that's been a disaster for Tom Herman so far, as Ohio held them to 185 yards on their home field. Now they face the best offense they've seen this year by a large margin. FSU is coming of a problematic game against BC, but I can cut them a bit of slack because that was the ultimate look ahead game and also served as BC's bandanna game in which they honor a fallen former teammate, so FSU had a perfect storm of a bad spot and they didn't respond well. Everything they want to accomplish this season is tied up in winning this game, so I would be very surprised if they don't show up with a supreme effort. Jordan Travis got dinged up in that game, but there is no way in the world he will not be shot full of painkillers and at full strength for this one. I know there are a lot of smart people looking at Clemson in this one, but I just don't trust Cade Klubnik to be capable of the kind of performance Clemson will need out of him to win this game. He's shown a proclivity for turnovers in big moments, and I think that'll continue. If he comes out and makes the plays to beat FSU, I'll tip my cap and move on, but this is a not a game that Clemson can win just by being solid on defense.

Love it! I dunno if it all on Klubnick, I agree he def no Lawrence or watson but he doesn’t have the kind of wrs clemson used to get either. It might not have been all DJ fault, it could just be they havnt been bringing in the same kind of talent outside at the skill spots., I’ll take noles qb, wrs, and playcaller by a big margin, noles have so so many starts with all these kids having played a ton, think they ready, I think the second half the lsu game proved it. Would anyone take clemson vs lsu today? I sure ad shit wouidnt.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Rutgers +24 @Michigan: My general rule with Rutgers, which I'm sure everyone that has read this thread has heard before is, when it comes to conference games, play on them as a road dog and fade them as a home dog. That typically covers everything because they're rarely favored, but if so, go ahead and play them in that role too. Here we find the Scarlet Knights catching 24 against mighty Michigan. I typically hesitate when a 3-0 ATS team is lining up against an 0-3 ATS team, which Rutgers and Michigan are respectively, but there are reasons to like Rutgers here. First of all, Michigan has played what has turned out to be 2 terrible teams (Bowling Green and ECU) and one merely below average team in UNLV. They haven't really come all that close to covering against any of them, and they haven't had much interest in any of those games either. You'd think that they would be completely focused here at the start of Big Ten play, but the reason that Rutgers is 8-3-1 as a conference dog since Schiano's return in 2020 is because nobody gets up for Rutgers, especially when they are at home and feel as if all that's necessary is a cursory roll of the helmet onto the field. Although I have no confidence that Rutgers will have much, if any success on offense in this game, their defense is no joke. The defense is so solid, actually, that it's allowed them to basically toy with the competition so far. Although VT and Northwestern are both way, way down, they are still power 5 programs with good athletes, and neither had much chance to be competitive with Rutgers. I realize that JJ McCarthy was just going through the motions, but he threw 3 picks last week against what we all assumed would be a helpless defense in Bowling Green, and the Wolverines only managed 312 total yards in the game. Overall, they haven't really run the ball all that effectively in any of their 3 games with their running backs save a couple of long Blake Corum runs. They'll definitely be tested by this Rutgers defense, who we knew would be pretty good and haven't disappointed against three offenses that they should have dominated. They rank highly in every metric, and PFF has them as one of the top tackling teams in the country. Michigan hasn't topped 35 against any of the creampuffs they've played so far, so there's no reason to believe they'll beat that against this Rutgers defense. If so, as long as Rutgers can grab a couple field goals or a garbage time TD, they should be in good shape to cover this number. If they play well offensively, which isn't out of the question because they showed absolutely nothing but vanilla screen passes most of the year, they might be in this game late. Don't forget that the last time Schiano came in to Ann Arbor in 2021, it was also Michigan's Big Ten opener and Rutgers outgained what would go on to be an 11-1 Michigan team 352-275 in a 20-13 Michigan win.

When Rutgers scored that early TD, I thought to myself, "As long as this isn't the only time Rutgers scores, we should be good". Alas. Bad luck on the defensive TD for Michigan. but the Wolverines also could have probably tacked on a late score if they really wanted to, so I won't complain on the push.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. @Cincinnati +14 v Oklahoma: I faded the Bearcats last week because I figured they'd get caught looking ahead to this game, and although Miami(OH) covered that game by 21+ points, I can admit we got quite a few breaks in support of our Miami ticket. Cincinnati actually severely outgained the Redhawks in that game, continuing a trend that has been constant in all three Cincy games this year. They piled up 538 yards, and again Emory Jones looked surprisingly competent, as if he fits pretty good in the Satterfield offense, similar to Malik Cunningham. Oklahoma comes in 3-0 straight up and against the spread, but we still don't know much about the Sooners because they've played Arkansas State(one of the worst teams in FBS), Tulsa with a backup QB and SMU. Both Tulsa and Arky State have putrid defenses, so Taylor Gabriel looked great, but SMU, the only competent(maybe?) defense they've played, Gabriel was help to 176 yards on 19 completions. The Sooners managed to cover that game late, but the Ponies outgained them 367-365. I suspect this will be a raucous atmosphere in Nippert stadium for the Cincinnati program's first ever Big 12 game, and if Oklahoma doesn't bring their A game, they'll be in for a tough game. Maybe Venables has everything ironed out, but it'll take either a very solid performance or a lot of good fortune to cover this number.

This push is a bit of a different story. Cincy missed a chip shot FG, threw a pick in the end zone and were stopped on downs 4 times in OU territory. Not a bad handicap, but OU was clearly the better side. Cincy kind of showed for the second consecutive week that they are not a resourceful team on offense.

 

[2daBank]

4. @Cincinnati +14 v Oklahoma: I faded the Bearcats last week because I figured they'd get caught looking ahead to this game, and although Miami(OH) covered that game by 21+ points, I can admit we got quite a few breaks in support of our Miami ticket. Cincinnati actually severely outgained the Redhawks in that game, continuing a trend that has been constant in all three Cincy games this year. They piled up 538 yards, and again Emory Jones looked surprisingly competent, as if he fits pretty good in the Satterfield offense, similar to Malik Cunningham. Oklahoma comes in 3-0 straight up and against the spread, but we still don't know much about the Sooners because they've played Arkansas State(one of the worst teams in FBS), Tulsa with a backup QB and SMU. Both Tulsa and Arky State have putrid defenses, so Taylor Gabriel looked great, but SMU, the only competent(maybe?) defense they've played, Gabriel was help to 176 yards on 19 completions. The Sooners managed to cover that game late, but the Ponies outgained them 367-365. I suspect this will be a raucous atmosphere in Nippert stadium for the Cincinnati program's first ever Big 12 game, and if Oklahoma doesn't bring their A game, they'll be in for a tough game. Maybe Venables has everything ironed out, but it'll take either a very solid performance or a lot of good fortune to cover this number.

I was wondering if you mess with this game, I’m having a super hard time with it. I played cincy vs pitt, ignored them last week, I feel like I’ve had a decent read on Satterfiekd for some time, I think he can draw up some offense, agree emery Jones is potentially a bigger stronger cunningham, he has a ways to prove it but I def see it, my issue w satterfield is I think he a pompous ass! He terrible at in game adjustments and situational football. I often think he goes into a game knowing what he wants to run and if it works great but if it doesn’t he will keep freaking doing it anyways! I think this often leads to situations like vs pitt where his team dominated for 3 qrtrs then gave pitt the ball multiple times w a chance to win cause his offense got figured out and he had no answers!! Lucky for him (and me!) the Cincy d is much better than pitt crappy offense!! I do think cincy pass d rating is incredibly misleading, they havnt faced any kind of challenge to the secondary and last week Gabbert had a bunch of yards on only 12 completions!!

The problem for me is I have no idea what Ou is? I think they might be better than we realize. I hear what you saying bout the smu game and that def raised a bit a red flag for the Ou offense, that said they held smu to 11 points and choose to run the ball over 40x in that game!! I think holding smu any year to 11 is pretty impressive. Venables was a very good dc at clemson, I don’t think he forgot how to coach up defense and he should get special players at Ou! I think we might be underestimating this d in particular. It just a assumption at this point tho, I think this game will tell us a lot!!! Far as the offense goes I think Gabriel a pretty decent qb, I assume the weapons are plenty talented, the Oline should be able to block, and the best news for them is I think the way to attack cincy d is in the air! I like Cincy front 7 but if Gabriel has time I think we see bearcats have lost a bit in the secondary.

I think I’m doing to much speculating and I think cincy 1st home big12 game has to be worth something for me to lay a couple tds on the road but I can’t get myself to wanting to play cincy either. I’ll say one thing for sure, playing cincy pregame could lead to a awesome middle, assuming they come out and get a couple score lead I would def look to play Ou at a good price cause satterfield teams can blow a lead w the best of them!!!

I wanna watch this game so of course I want to bet it but I just can’t play a side. I am somewhat interested in Gabriel over 256.5 pass yards, my concern would be if Ou d is really good and they play the kind of game they did against smu where they ran it a ton, I don’t think that the right strategy against cincy d but unfortunately none these coaches call and ask my opinion!! Lol

 

[Br@ssknux]

Love it! I dunno if it all on Klubnick, I agree he def no Lawrence or watson but he doesn’t have the kind of wrs clemson used to get either. It might not have been all DJ fault, it could just be they havnt been bringing in the same kind of talent outside at the skill spots., I’ll take noles qb, wrs, and playcaller by a big margin, noles have so so many starts with all these kids having played a ton, think they ready, I think the second half the lsu game proved it. Would anyone take clemson vs lsu today? I sure ad shit wouidnt.

Good point Bank

 

[2daBank]

Good point Bank

I try not to let much from these early games influence my opinion, like I don’t really hold the duke game against clemson, they killed themselves and cheated us out a good game with all those red zone failures (3 in a row inside the 10 and no points I think?!?!?), pretty much made the 2nd half that game useless far as a data point!

I don’t want to overhype noles cause the lsu game, similar to clemson week 1 lsu kinda played themselves out of that game with self inflicted wounds, in their case it was wrs dropping easy catches on 3rd downs in the second half!! ( I know that was our 1st disagreement this year and you got me! Think we now 1-1 as I hit Irish vs ncst, I’m dreading the next one as we seem to take turns, I’m afraid you gonna play Ohio st! lol). I don’t think lsu drops changed the outcome tho, I think we got screwed out of a much better ending, Imo the outcome was decided by the adjustments Norvell made at halftime, noles offense scored on 6 straight drives after the half! It was a incredible display that pretty hard to ignore no matter what you think of lsu!!

At the very least I believe that game tells us the moment won’t be to big for this squad, I think they started thinking bout clemson the minute they got up 31-10 on BC, and I’m pretty sure that was a very vanilla game plan cause I think Norvell been holding some stuff back he didn’t want on tape for this one!!

I lost playing noles vs clemson last year but I did not walk away thinking clemson was the better team! That was at the end of a bad 3 game stretch where the noles lost games despite looking every bit as talented as their opponents. Pretty much all this years kids were on that squad and know what it like to go thru that, this group has played a ton of football together, been thru everything, if they not ready for this moment I’d be shocked.

Sorry I get going and don’t stop! Lol. I gotta keep telling myself I don’t care if this feels very square cause square wins sometimes and I strongly believe in this play!

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. Florida Atlantic +16.5 @Illinois: I've been on FAU the past 2 weeks and they haven't come close to covering because their offense has been awful. Injuries have played a big part in that, with the latest being Casey Thompson's knee injury last week which put him out for the year. A closer look at FAU's games will reveal however, that their defense has been pretty darn good. PFF has their rush defense ranked #1 in the country, believe it or not, and Illinois needs to be able to run the ball to take some pressure off Luke Altmeyer, who spent all last week hitting Penn State DBs right in the numbers to the tune of 4 picks until he was compassionately benched by Bielema. Illinois has not been able to run the ball effectively due to a combination or poor run design and an OL that has underachieved so far. Defensively, the Illini looked a lot better against Penn State, but I think they'll struggle to cover LaJohntay Wester, who caught 12 balls for 100+ yards last week against Clemson and caught 3 TDs last year when the Owls almost upset Purdue. Although Thompson is out, former CMU QB Daniel Richardson has plenty of experience, and he's been the starter for 2 bowl teams in Mt Pleasant. Also, 1,000 yard rusher Larry McCammon has been out the past 2 weeks and will play this week, so they'll have him as well. Things just haven't gone well for the Illini this year, and for them to cover this number, I think they'll have to put up 30+ against an underrated defense that looks to match up pretty well with their offense. This line continues to go up...If you wait, you might get 17. I still believe FAU is much better than they've shown so far, and I think they're due to come up with a good performance. It's another shot at a Power 5(or Power 2 I guess) conference foe, so they'll be motivated, and I think Illinois might be underestimating FAU after seeing what they've done the past couple of weeks.

Good call here even though Illinois moved the ball significantly better than I thought. (500+ yards). Illinois is another team that isn't efficient at turning their yards into points. They also cannot pass block.

 

[carolinablue]

5. Florida Atlantic +16.5 @Illinois: I've been on FAU the past 2 weeks and they haven't come close to covering because their offense has been awful. Injuries have played a big part in that, with the latest being Casey Thompson's knee injury last week which put him out for the year. A closer look at FAU's games will reveal however, that their defense has been pretty darn good. PFF has their rush defense ranked #1 in the country, believe it or not, and Illinois needs to be able to run the ball to take some pressure off Luke Altmeyer, who spent all last week hitting Penn State DBs right in the numbers to the tune of 4 picks until he was compassionately benched by Bielema. Illinois has not been able to run the ball effectively due to a combination or poor run design and an OL that has underachieved so far. Defensively, the Illini looked a lot better against Penn State, but I think they'll struggle to cover LaJohntay Wester, who caught 12 balls for 100+ yards last week against Clemson and caught 3 TDs last year when the Owls almost upset Purdue. Although Thompson is out, former CMU QB Daniel Richardson has plenty of experience, and he's been the starter for 2 bowl teams in Mt Pleasant. Also, 1,000 yard rusher Larry McCammon has been out the past 2 weeks and will play this week, so they'll have him as well. Things just haven't gone well for the Illini this year, and for them to cover this number, I think they'll have to put up 30+ against an underrated defense that looks to match up pretty well with their offense. This line continues to go up...If you wait, you might get 17. I still believe FAU is much better than they've shown so far, and I think they're due to come up with a good performance. It's another shot at a Power 5(or Power 2 I guess) conference foe, so they'll be motivated, and I think Illinois might be underestimating FAU after seeing what they've done the past couple of weeks.

Definitely like this one as I have been patiently waiting for 17 but not sure it will get there. Best of luck this week man!

 

[jedi ninja]

I can’t type as much as Bank but yes!! Get under fuxking CENTER!!

GL this week look forward to your plays/thoughts

Believe it or not (I didn’t initially), but the analytics support running from the shotgun on short yardages. That may be a little bit different when it’s less than a yard and you can do the push from behind run.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Love it! I dunno if it all on Klubnick, I agree he def no Lawrence or watson but he doesn’t have the kind of wrs clemson used to get either. It might not have been all DJ fault, it could just be they havnt been bringing in the same kind of talent outside at the skill spots., I’ll take noles qb, wrs, and playcaller by a big margin, noles have so so many starts with all these kids having played a ton, think they ready, I think the second half the lsu game proved it. Would anyone take clemson vs lsu today? I sure ad shit wouidnt.

Klubnick can play. As you mention, he simply does not have the skill sets around him.

 

[Carolina Guy]

2. Florida State ML (-120) @Clemson: In my opinion, this is a game between a potential national title contender and..... another team. I have a feeling both teams know this as well. It looks like Clemson is taking money right now because yesterday FSU was bordering on a FG favorite. I realize this is the first time Clemson has been a home dog since 2016, but this Clemson team hasn't resembled the ones we've been used to seeing for awhile now. Offensively, I just don't think Clemson's offense is good enough to win a game like this, and Cade Klubnik is the primary reason why. I think most would agree that he has never looked like he would cash in on his hype, and by any measure, either via his numbers or the eyeball test, he just doesn't measure up. He's completing 66% of his passes, but he's only averaging 6.5 yards per attempt and isn't even averaging 10 yards per completion. If you take away Clemson's game against FCS punching bag Charleston Southern, Klubnik has only 417 yards on 47 completions. Also, top RB Will Shipley is coming off a game in which he averaged only 3.5 yards per carry. In recent vintage, Clemson has been very reliant on him to be a playmaker for them, but he hasn't hit the end zone yet this year. Defensively, they have been good, but they couldn't get off the field when they needed to to give themselves a chance against Duke, and the other two offenses they've faced are not competitive offenses by any stretch. I had high hopes for FAU, but that's been a disaster for Tom Herman so far, as Ohio held them to 185 yards on their home field. Now they face the best offense they've seen this year by a large margin. FSU is coming of a problematic game against BC, but I can cut them a bit of slack because that was the ultimate look ahead game and also served as BC's bandanna game in which they honor a fallen former teammate, so FSU had a perfect storm of a bad spot and they didn't respond well. Everything they want to accomplish this season is tied up in winning this game, so I would be very surprised if they don't show up with a supreme effort. Jordan Travis got dinged up in that game, but there is no way in the world he will not be shot full of painkillers and at full strength for this one. I know there are a lot of smart people looking at Clemson in this one, but I just don't trust Cade Klubnik to be capable of the kind of performance Clemson will need out of him to win this game. He's shown a proclivity for turnovers in big moments, and I think that'll continue. If he comes out and makes the plays to beat FSU, I'll tip my cap and move on, but this is a not a game that Clemson can win just by being solid on defense.

Noles have been living off that 2nd half vs LSWho. They were Colorado before W1. Clemson never should have lost to Dook. Those turnovers inside the 10-yard line were the difference. That's just not going to happen every week. Great spot to take Clemson at home IMO as a dog where they never lose. I'll pay to see it. BOL this weekend. Way to recognize Ga State as the right side.

 

[2daBank]

Klubnick can play. As you mention, he simply does not have the skill sets around him.

That could very well be true, I dunno if he can consistently make the right decisions and big time plays but he certainly has the arm talent and athleticism. Clemson wr quality seems to been falling off the last several years, I dunno if they stopped getting 4-5 star guys or they just got duds? I don’t really follow recruiting, I just know they were so quick to wanna crucify DJ U. But I recall him stepping in for Lawrence at notre dame with the guys trevor had around him and putting up a monster game! Seems like after that year when Lawrence left so did most the top notch talent on the outside! I know Dabo also fired his OC and brought in a new guy this off-season so clearly he felt the play calling was lacking. Still appears they have world class defensive talent but I don’t think the d has been the imposing unit it once was since Venables left, I remember they used to be so aggressive shooting those linebackers thru the a gaps or showing it and messing with protections every play!! I can’t recall seeing any that stuff venables used to do when watching the duke game.

 

[M.W.]

Klubnick can play. As you mention, he simply does not have the skill sets around him.

And his best game at Clemson was the biggest game, the ACCCG. The thing that concerns me is his size. I think he’s having trouble seeing the field at this level, and he looks a bit too slight to take big hits.

 

[M.W.]

That could very well be true, I dunno if he can consistently make the right decisions and big time plays but he certainly has the arm talent and athleticism. Clemson wr quality seems to been falling off the last several years, I dunno if they stopped getting 4-5 star guys or they just got duds? I don’t really follow recruiting, I just know they were so quick to wanna crucify DJ U. But I recall him stepping in for Lawrence at notre dame with the guys trevor had around him and putting up a monster game! Seems like after that year when Lawrence left so did most the top notch talent on the outside! I know Dabo also fired his OC and brought in a new guy this off-season so clearly he felt the play calling was lacking. Still appears they have world class defensive talent but I don’t think the d has been the imposing unit it once was since Venables left, I remember they used to be so aggressive shooting those linebackers thru the a gaps or showing it and messing with protections every play!! I can’t recall seeing any that stuff venables used to do when watching the duke game.

About four years ago, Clemson lost its receivers coach, Jeff Scott, arguably the best in the country. That’s been a huge loss. He’s back on the payroll as an analyst, but Dabo needs to put him back on the field.

 

[2daBank]

About four years ago, Clemson lost its receivers coach, Jeff Scott, arguably the best in the country. That’s been a huge loss. He’s back on the payroll as an analyst, but Dabo needs to put him back on the field.

Ah, that explains a lot, had no idea. He mostly had all his coaches stay in tact for that run when they were in playoff every year didn’t he? Then they started dropping like flies, after venables left felt like he was finally having to deal w saban problems, he seems to replace a guy every year!! Tough when the coaches you trust start getting poached!

 

[M.W.]

Ah, that explains a lot, had no idea. He mostly had all his coaches stay in tact for that run when they were in playoff every year didn’t he?

No, he didn’t — not the good ones. Dan Brooks retired after the 2016 championship season, and Marion Hobby went to the NFL at the same time. Jeff Scott left after 2019.

Like Jeff Scott, Brooks (DT coach) was a great recruiter and a great teacher. Remember — Grady Jarrett was a 2*. His parting gift to Clemson were two receivers from East Tennessee (Tee Higgins and Amari Rodgers), who signed their LOI’s a few days after he retired.

Hobby (DE coach) wasn’t a great recruiter, but he could coach.

 

[Timh]

Believe it or not (I didn’t initially), but the analytics support running from the shotgun on short yardages. That may be a little bit different when it’s less than a yard and you can do the push from behind run.

Ask Brandon Staley how the anal - lytics are working out for him in SD

 

[Br@ssknux]

Noles have been living off that 2nd half vs LSWho. They were Colorado before W1. Clemson never should have lost to Dook. Those turnovers inside the 10-yard line were the difference. That's just not going to happen every week. Great spot to take Clemson at home IMO as a dog where they never lose. I'll pay to see it. BOL this weekend. Way to recognize Ga State as the right side.

I've heard a lot of this angle this week. I absolutely agree that FSU looking great on national TV and Clemson getting embarrassed on national TV skews things and that must be considered. But those things happened. Clemson executed at the level of a sad sack bunch of losers at Duke and FSU beat LSU into submission in the second half. The question is which outcomes are the real ones. Clemson's unreliability with Klubnik under center isn't limited to that Duke game. I've seen enough of Klubnik in big spots to tell me that it's not far fetched to think those kind of things will keep happening to him. He was a deer in headlights at Notre Dame. He went 8/29 for 90 yards and lost as a 14 point favorite at home to South Carolina. He got sacked 5 times and threw two terrible picks leading to a 17 point loss in the bowl to a JOE MILTON led Tennessee team and then he had the debacle at Duke. That's a lot of shaky play in a 6 or 7 game sample size. Assuming that kind of play is an anomaly isn't really based on what has actually happened to him. You might be right, and he might play great. FSU has some warts, especially on display last week. But I don't think it's unreasonable to think that a trend has developed with Klubnik.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. BYU +9.5 @Kansas: Typically I avoid games involving two teams I really like, but I think BYU has some value here. I would never suggest that Kalani Sitake has any sort of edge over Lance Leipold, but he is 12-4 as a road dog since he's been the head man at BYU. BYU also almost always plays like their lives depend on every game, and that's the kind of outlook you like to see if you're going to back a team, especially when they're catching points. Kansas has been very good this year, and in the case of the two FBS teams they've played, they've been dominant. They outgained Illinois by 200 yards and made what previously was a studly defense look lost at times. The following week was more of the same on the road against a weaker Nevada team, but in both cases, the final scores(wins by 7 and 11) weren't indicative of the level of beat down the Jayhawks administered. They Also, although KU has been much improved on defense this year, they were so bad last year, especially in conference that I can't see them keeping their current levels of competency intact. BYU has the skill guys and enough experience with Slovis at QB to have enough success to put some points on the board. I would anticipate that the play on the field will be more even this week than it's been for Kansas in their previous two games, so I like my chances getting 9.5 with the Cougars.

2 defensive TDs against sunk the Cougs. Not a bad handicap. Will continue to look to bet BYU is they're getting points like this.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Rice -2.5(-115) @South Florida: USF is coming off the dogfight/taffy pull that they just had with Alabama, in which Nick Saban was apparently trying to prove a point by exclusively using two stiffs at QB for the entire game. As a result, USF hung the entire game, and they might be benefitting from that performance here, because I think Rice is a significantly better team. USF is in year 1 of the new Alex Golesh regime, and it's a big job, considering USF went 1-11 last year. You'll have to forgive me for being skeptical that Golesh is the man for the job, as prior to hooking up with Josh Heupel and benefitting from his involvement with that offense, he was the right hand guy for Matt Campbell at Iowa State. Ultimately, however, his main influence and first mentor in college football was none other than the imbecillic Tim Beckman, one of the most rock headed idiots to ever wander a college sideline. USF's defense stood up well against a clearly flawed Alabama offense, but prior to that they were torched by both Western Kentucky and believe it or not, the Florida A&M Rattlers who managed 374 yards passing against the Bulls. Now they'll face Rice's passing game, run by JT Daniels and featuring 3 solid receivers in Luke McCaffrey, Braylen Walker and Kobie Campbell, all of whom are averaing more than 15 yards per catch. Offensively, USF has Byrum Brown at QB, and as a QB, well, let's just say he's a good runner. He's averaging 4.7 yards per attempt, and Rice has proven to be pretty competent against the run, having held their own against Texas's run game and beating Houston outright. Ultimately, I think Rice is better than USF on both sides of the ball, and I suspect they'll have a good sized coaching edge as well.

Missed this one by a mile. Rice could not stop USF. Both QBs had 430+ yards passing. Almost 600 total yards for USF. Did not see that coming, but since when is Rice a defensive juggernaut? Rice as a road favorite probably not a good idea no matter how bad I wanted to fade USF.

 

[2daBank]

Noles have been living off that 2nd half vs LSWho. They were Colorado before W1. Clemson never should have lost to Dook. Those turnovers inside the 10-yard line were the difference. That's just not going to happen every week. Great spot to take Clemson at home IMO as a dog where they never lose. I'll pay to see it. BOL this weekend. Way to recognize Ga State as the right side.

Nothing to do with why I bet noles. They have better qb, better wrs, better play caller, a team that mostly been playing together for several years, it their time. But hey, I’d hate it if everyone agreed, if I don’t see any disagreement in forum world then I usually run and hide, lol. Makes me happy one way or another some ppl here will win!! If it you and the other clemson backers here I’ll be happy for ya and get the next one

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. @Washington State +3 v Oregon State: I hope this is the last time that I go against the Beavers because I like just about everything about Jonathan Smith's team. About the only thing I DON'T like about them is that Smith is 1-5 as a conference road favorite, and especially in this spot against Jake Dickert who is 4-1 as a home dog in conference. Oregon State's bread and butter is running downhill with should be All American candidate Damian Martinez behind a solid O-Line, but Washington State has done a great job of stopping the run this year. DJ Uiagaleilei has taken over at QB for the Beavs, and he's looked good for the most part, but his first exposure to a competitive defense brought out some familiar warts in his game. Pullman is a tough place to play, and defense is Dickert's forte. In addition, Cam Ward has quietly established himself as worthy of discussion among the high level QBs in the Pac 12. He's averaging 9.4 yards per attempt and sports a 9/0 ratio and has looked as comfortable as ever in the Wazzou offense. As I mentioned, Oregon State has been consistently bad as a road favorite, so I think this might be a rare slip up for the Beavs. If they do, I'll be ready to pick up the pieces next week and back them as they host Utah likely coming off an emotional game with UCLA.

Hello Cam Ward. OSU is a very good defense and he torched them. It's remarkable how good the QB play is in the Pac 12. I will be unloading on OSU minus Whatever against Utah as soon as that line comes out.

 

[Eric Antrobus]

With you on the Noles and Wazzou. Locked both in early.

 

[2daBank]

damn. I like wazzu too. I know we bound to have a disagreement this week, it be 2 weeks in a row without one, lol. I’m dreading it cause I won the last so I know it your turn!!

 

[M.W.]

I've heard a lot of this angle this week. I absolutely agree that FSU looking great on national TV and Clemson getting embarrassed on national TV skews things and that must be considered. But those things happened. Clemson executed at the level of a sad sack bunch of losers at Duke and FSU beat LSU into submission in the second half. The question is which outcomes are the real ones. Clemson's unreliability with Klubnik under center isn't limited to that Duke game. I've seen enough of Klubnik in big spots to tell me that it's not far fetched to think those kind of things will keep happening to him. He was a deer in headlights at Notre Dame. He went 8/29 for 90 yards and lost as a 14 point favorite at home to South Carolina. He got sacked 5 times and threw two terrible picks leading to a 17 point loss in the bowl to a JOE MILTON led Tennessee team and then he had the debacle at Duke. That's a lot of shaky play in a 6 or 7 game sample size. Assuming that kind of play is an anomaly isn't really based on what has actually happened to him. You might be right, and he might play great. FSU has some warts, especially on display last week. But I don't think it's unreasonable to think that a trend has developed with Klubnik.

Klubnik didn’t play against South Carolina!

 

[M.W.]

Klubnik didn’t play against South Carolina!

And he didn’t take a single rep with the 1’s from the end of camp until the week of the ACCCG, which might help to explain how he looked at Notre Dame.

 

[M.W.]

Nothing to do with why I bet noles. They have better qb, better wrs, better play caller, a team that mostly been playing together for several years, it their time. But hey, I’d hate it if everyone agreed, if I don’t see any disagreement in forum world then I usually run and hide, lol. Makes me happy one way or another some ppl here will win!! If it you and the other clemson backers here I’ll be happy for ya and get the next one

Does FSU really have the better QB? He was awful against Clemson last year. Even DJ outplayed him — by a lot, statistically. The Noles’ running game — that’s what worked against Clemson last year. Why didn’t they run it more?

 

[Br@ssknux]

Klubnik didn’t play against South Carolina!

Oh shit my bad MW. I looked at the team stats from that game and forgot that DJU was still playing then. I mistakenly thought Klubnik had supplanted him by then. Thanks for pointing that out and setting me straight.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Sam Houston State +11 @Houston: One of the worst plays I've made in a long time was Houston last week. Dana Holgerson may have lost this team. They were completely non-competitive against TCU after losing to Rice the week before. Donovan Smith has been totally ineffective after coming over from Texas Tech and they haven't been able to run the ball. Defensively, they've been a sieve the past two weeks. It's a team that looks completely disinterested and disorganized. Now they line up with newly minted FBS participant San Houston State, and I'd be stunned if Houston could be bothered to muster up a solid effort. So far SHSU hasn't won at this level, and that's because they have been absolutely inept on offense. In their 2 games, they've scored a grand total of 3 points and gained a grand total of 265 yards against BYU and Air Force, yet they've managed to cover in both of those games because of the elite level of defense they've played. Houston will be the weakest offense they've played, so they should be able to have similar success(they gave up 14 to BYU and 13 to AF) on defense, and they're coming off a bye, so maybe KC Keller and his staff(who have won FCS National Titles at 2 different spots) have come up with some wrinkles on offense. Houston is the perfect team to play the stooge and fall for Sam Houston's first win, and even if they don't, this shapes up as being a really close game as a result of the likelihood that SHSU's defense handles the Cougars.

KC Keller, what happened to the defense? It looked so good before! Holgerson succeeds in the bully role for once. They were due I guess. Probably not enough value if you know the offense will max out at 7.

 

[2daBank]

Does FSU really have the better QB? He was awful against Clemson last year. Even DJ outplayed him — by a lot, statistically. The Noles’ running game — that’s what worked against Clemson last year. Why didn’t they run it more?

Yea, I believe Travis is the better qb. I been wrong before tho.

 

[M.W.]

I’m not at all confident about tomorrow’s game, but much of what we’re basing our opinions on are very small samples. Head-to-head last year Clemson was the better team, but FSU has certainly improved. If you ignore the BC game (as you should), you really have a one-game sample in which FSU looked great. Clemson’s bowl game against Tennessee was another one of those spots where the situation favored one team, though not to the extent of the game in Chestnut Hill. Same with the Duke game. And last year’s Notre Dame — wow, the situation was a sure loser.

 

[ProV1Colt]

About four years ago, Clemson lost its receivers coach, Jeff Scott, arguably the best in the country. That’s been a huge loss. He’s back on the payroll as an analyst, but Dabo needs to put him back on the field.

His Daddy had some pretty good years in Tallahassee

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. Georgia Tech +4 @Wake Forest: A little out of chronological order here. Despite having a pretty painful ATS result last week while backing GT, I'm going to go back to the well here. They didn't cover against Ole Miss and I won't get into specifics, but there were countless terrible calls and bad breaks that went against them in that game, which was 24-17 with about 8 minutes left yet somehow ended up at 48-23. One thing that's been proven is that Georgia Tech can move the ball under OC Buster Faulkner. They've averaged 513 yards per game despite two of those games coming against undefeated squads Ole Miss and Louisville. I touched on the Ole Miss game and they could easily have beaten Louisville. When you look at this line, considering the two teams and their records, you'd think you'd be getting more with Georgia Tech. It opened at 7 and immediately moved down. I haven't seen ticket counts on this game but I've seen consensus numbers that favor Wake, so it seems there's educated money on Tech here. Wake is 3-0 but it's fraudulent. They've beaten a Vandy team that just found a way to lose at UNLV and they had to fight and claw their way to a comeback win at Old Dominion in a game they were getting outgained in at the half by 150 yards. Tech's defensive numbers have been bad, but Wake profiles as class relief for them after dealing with Ole Miss and Louisville. Ultimately I think both of these teams are due for some regression in fortunes and I think this one will come down to the wire at worst, and we might just see that GT is the better squad.

Nailed this one

 

[2daBank]

we in step this week, Gtech one my favorite dogs, I’m not thrilled bout them potential for rain and I’d assume wind? Throughout this game tho. I was def gonna be playing king passing yards props before I saw the east coast forecast.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. @Notre Dame +3.5 v Ohio State: I was able to grab 3.5 at -111 so jumped at it. I've been opposite of Notre Dame twice this year and lost, so if I lose this one, I might just have to go purely for entertainment purposes on the Irish moving forward. I'll also concede that this is a bit of a square side, but I think a solid case can be made for the Irish here. I was skeptical of ND OC Gerard Parker earlier this year because it seemed like he was a fallback choice for Marcus Freeman in his OC search, but when you look back, Parker was obviously a major part of an offensive staff that squeezed a decent year out of the quarterbacks the Irish had last year. When you look now at where Tyler Buchner and especially Drew Pyne are, you start to have some appreciation for what they did last year and just how much of a upgrade Sam Hartman is. When I watched Drew Pyne last year, I saw a pretty decent QB. Not great, but workable in a scheme. Now he's 3rd string at Arizona State? Ah yes. The staff was pretty god last year. I also like that they've moved Chris Tyree to the slot, which has resulted in some explosiveness at the WR position. Hartman is a veteran adult back there at QB, and I think represents a major advantage for ND at the QB position in this game. Kyle McCord looked good last week, but we have no idea how he's going to fare in this environment(albeit with a lot of OSU fans there). Notre Dame was able to match OSU physically last year in Columbus and a lot of the same guys are back on both sides. Freeman has been a dog 4 times since he's been here and he's won 3 of those games outright by 13, 17 and 21 points with the only loser being when Pyne shit the bed in the finale at USC last year. ND's strength on defense is their secondary, which is a good thing considering Harrison and Egbuka will both be playing on Sundays next year. I know OSU has owned ND, but I'm just not sold on the OSU offense here, and Day has shown some chinks in the armor with his decision making in big games lately. Can't wait to watch this one, but I have a feeling the Irish are in a good spot here.

Notre Dame should have won this game. They were dominating at the line of scrimmage the whole second half. If the linebacker could catch, ND wins. If they don't run that read option on their last possession and just hand it off, they wouldn't have been inclined to run that screen on second down. Even after the big loss, had they just run it on 2nd and 3rd down, I think they might have gotten the 1st down and probably won. Lastly, if they brought pressure on OSU's 3rd and 19, I think they win that game. You cannot allow the receivers to get downfield. Tey could have dropped 12 DBs into coverage there and Egbuka would still have come down with that. Then Day with his assault on 85 year old Lou Holtz....what a low caliber dude he is. He claimed he was defending his team, but he was really defending himself. And if Holtz said his teams have been soft in big moments, he ain't wrong. They were soft the whole second half too...ND pounded them and then let them off the hook.

 

[2daBank]

I’m not at all confident about tomorrow’s game, but much of what we’re basing our opinions on are very small samples. Head-to-head last year Clemson was the better team, but FSU has certainly improved. If you ignore the BC game (as you should), you really have a one-game sample in which FSU looked great. Clemson’s bowl game against Tennessee was another one of those spots where the situation favored one team, though not to the extent of the game in Chestnut Hill. Same with the Duke game. And last year’s Notre Dame — wow, the situation was a sure loser.

I seriously didn’t think clemson was the better team last year. I even looked back in my notes cause I knew I bet fsu last year too (told you I’ve always been a tad partial to them, lol), it says right next to “L”, “Maybe not a great bet considering this fsu 3rd straight loss but I did not think clemson was a better team”, anyways if I recall correctly noles went thru a 3 game stretch repeatedly losing games to teams im sure were not more talented than them, I’m of the belief it wee kinda just growing pains for a team that had the talent last year but maybe not the know how to win games vs tough competition. They added a few nice pieces and bring back pretty much everyone of significance,, I’m really not basing anything off either teams small samples this year, obviously what the offense did after halftime against lau impressed me but the only thing I took away was last years team I’m not sure does that? If I’m off base here it simply a error in judgment that I believe fsu time is here and now while it pretty clear clemson time could be slipping away, I think Miami is gonna be a bigger test physically, I think this one is mental, if fsu brings their best I don’t think they lose.


If I was gonna bet the clemson side I would do a sgp and play Shipley over rush yards and Shipley to score a td with clemson, makes it a much nicer payout and I think pretty much correlates w a tigers W.

 

[2daBank]

This is starting to get a tad freaky!! I was sure osu/nd was gonna be the one we disagreed, maybe cause I’m not totally confident that I like Irish, but again same page.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. Penn State -14 v Iowa: Although I'm not completely sold on this Penn State offense, I think Iowa is going to get totally overwhelmed here. Anybody who has watched Cade McNamara play knows that he is nowhere close to 100%. Western Michigan is just a completely putrid team, but there was no way Iowa should have covered that number last week. McNamara completed only 50% of his passes and was sacked 4 times by a defense that gave up 45 points to Syracuse in the first half the week before. Now his favorite target by a mile, TE Luke Lachey is out, and a couple of their running backs are hurt as well. They now have to face a Penn State defense that just tortured Illinois QB Luke Altmeyer into 4 picks and will be pinning their ears back to harass McNamara all night. It's also a white out in Happy Valley, so the effort level will be more than sufficient to handle an Iowa team that is this banged up. Even defensively, Iowa has been surprisingly susceptible to big plays. A couple guys wearing blue jeans and pocket protectors teamed up for a 64 yard bomb last week for WMU, and the Broncos somehow racked up 200+ yards in the first half. Again, we're talking one of the bottom 5 teams in FBS here. Penn State didn't look great on offense last week in Champaign, but they didn't have to because of what their defense did, and I don't think they'll have to do much in this one either, although in this environment, I'm sure we'll see Allar and those RBs shine a little bit. Typically is I see a +14 next to Iowa in any instance, I'm interested, but in this case, knowing what we know about where this Iowa offense exists right now, I think they're in trouble.

I legitimately feared for Cade McNamara's life in this game.

 

[gps_3]

7. Rice -2.5(-115) @South Florida: USF is coming off the dogfight/taffy pull that they just had with Alabama, in which Nick Saban was apparently trying to prove a point by exclusively using two stiffs at QB for the entire game. As a result, USF hung the entire game, and they might be benefitting from that performance here, because I think Rice is a significantly better team. USF is in year 1 of the new Alex Golesh regime, and it's a big job, considering USF went 1-11 last year. You'll have to forgive me for being skeptical that Golesh is the man for the job, as prior to hooking up with Josh Heupel and benefitting from his involvement with that offense, he was the right hand guy for Matt Campbell at Iowa State. Ultimately, however, his main influence and first mentor in college football was none other than the imbecillic Tim Beckman, one of the most rock headed idiots to ever wander a college sideline. USF's defense stood up well against a clearly flawed Alabama offense, but prior to that they were torched by both Western Kentucky and believe it or not, the Florida A&M Rattlers who managed 374 yards passing against the Bulls. Now they'll face Rice's passing game, run by JT Daniels and featuring 3 solid receivers in Luke McCaffrey, Braylen Walker and Kobie Campbell, all of whom are averaing more than 15 yards per catch. Offensively, USF has Byrum Brown at QB, and as a QB, well, let's just say he's a good runner. He's averaging 4.7 yards per attempt, and Rice has proven to be pretty competent against the run, having held their own against Texas's run game and beating Houston outright. Ultimately, I think Rice is better than USF on both sides of the ball, and I suspect they'll have a good sized coaching edge as well.

I don't think you can base anything concerning USF on whatever that was that Alabama rolled out there last week. At least I really hope not

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. @Kansas State -4.5 v UCF: This line is creeping up because I think there might be some optimism that Will Howard is going to play, but even if he doesn't, KSU has a couple of highly regarded kids backing him up who they feel comfortable with. One thing we do know if that UCF will definitely be without their starting QB as John Rhys Plumlee is out and backup Timmy MCClain will be starting for the Knights. Although he looked great last week against Villanova in his first start, I think things will be a little different for him on the road in Manhattan in the program's first road game. UCF won at Boise a couple weeks ago but struggled to score, and in this case, I think the KState defense will be a tougher test than what Boise presented. He's in a much better scheme now, but McClain didn't fare well when he started some games for USF a couple years ago, throwing 7 picks vs 5 TDs and not being effective as a runner. This is also not a good time to be playing a pissed off KState team coming off a loss in excruciating fashion in a game they botched away late. This coaching staff has proven that they know what they're doing, and I'd be surprised if they found themselves in danger of losing this one.

UCF didn't look bad, but this was a strong play. K State was not losing this game.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I don't think you can base anything concerning USF on whatever that was that Alabama rolled out there last week. At least I really hope not

Hopefully the only thing based in reality that comes out of that game was the line value it created for Rice

 

[gps_3]

Hopefully the only thing based in reality that comes out of that game was the line value it created for Rice

Agreed there. Great thread as always, we are on a bunch of similar plays today

 

[Br@ssknux]

Agreed there. Great thread as always, we are on a bunch of similar plays today

Really glad to hear that my man. Hope you cash some tickets today

 

[Br@ssknux]

Had a few others I liked, but just couldn't quite justify them.

I like UCLA a lot today, but I'm waiting to see what happens with Rising. I'll probably be on UCLA regardless but was a little afraid that if it comes out that he's out, the line might get even lower than the 3.5ish spot it's at now. Utah's offense hasn't looked good, and it might not look great right off the bat with Rising either.I think UCLA is going to move the ball on them. Steele looks great running the ball and they have weapons outside. If the Freshman struggles with the moment, they have guys that can step in for him at QB.

I would have played BG +13 if I knew that they had 22 healthy guys to suit up. Great spot to fade Ohio IMO and their defense has been surprisingly solid. They have no idea if they have a healthy QB however so I passed.

I wanted to fade Mississippi State on the road at South Carolina, but 6 is a bit too much for me to way with the Gamecocks. I think Zach Arnett(??) looks completely overmatched and I'm thinking Rattler will torch that young secondary in their first road game of the year.

EMU is a great dog and I don't think Jax State is worthy of laying 7, but if you watched that offense EMU trotted out there last week, I have no idea how they'll score. I'll probably end up trusting Creighton but if I have zero zip nada positive to say about an offense, I can't make a case in a write up

Pitt's offense also scared me off, but at some point they have to show something don't they? You'll probably never have that much value(+7) with a Narduzzi team, and Drake Maye has looked very mortal so far this year. Pitt's defense is still good. I certainly wouldn't lay it with Mack Brown in that one.

Arkansas is a lot of points...just seemed fishy to me.

I hope everyone has a great week!!

 

[Inspekdah]

Like UCLA a lot too. This is Chip’s best team there.