Week 4 with Marsski (and Inside the Line columns)

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
NCAA YTD: 9-10-1, -2.02
(Pros: 2-2, -0.7)

Damn, my picks stunk last week. I don't remember having that bad of a week in a long time. Fade me, I guess.

All games for 1 unit unless otherwise indicated.

Saturday
Clemson -16.5
Buffalo -5.5
Iowa St/Akron Over 45
Tulane +37 (half unit)
Stanford -1.5
Ohio U. TT Over 23.5 (half unit) -115
NC State -6
(14-12-1, +0.83 updated)

Multi sport half unit parlay: Indians/Sawx Ov 7 (Fri.)/Clemson ML/E Car/S Fla Over 68 to win 1.53 units


Pros
Browns -3
Saints +3
(4-2, +1.3 updated)
 
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Leaning towards Tulane catching more than 35. Bad spot for OSU; Tulane offense tricky to prep for when everyone is thinking about PSU.
Everyone thinks the team will be sky high to have Urban back, but I don't know if they care as much as the fans do.
 
Problem is wake defense stinks and uab defense stinks and tulane had probs scoring on both
 
RetroVK said:
Problem is wake defense stinks and uab defense stinks and tulane had probs scoring on both
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I haven't seen a second of Tulane this year.

Counterpoint: OSU didn't play Army's option that great last year, no Bosa, linebacking/safety play has been underwhelming and now you have to be gap sound...
 
ADD:

Clemson -16.5...third option team of the year for Clemson, Ga Tech 1-5 ATS the last six games dating back to LY.

Tech QB Marshall can't threaten them with the pass...3/13 for 32 yards last year vs Clemson and coming off 6/15 game vs Pitt with only a single completion before the final drive of the game. I love Paul Johnson but he ain't got the horses to stay in this one. Clemson 3-1-1 last five years ATS vs Tech, would be 4-1 but backdoor push last year in final minutes.
 
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Tulane really isn't a triple option in the sense that Army is. I think everyone would be impressed with how Army hung with Ohio State last year, relatively speaking. Tulane is a different animal and easier to stop. It is really more of a shotgun 3/4 WR, or 2 WR with HB/TE zone read type offense than triple option. Alot of Bank's runs are off scrambles rather than designed runs. Tulane passes a good bit, slightly more this year because their OL isn't very good. They have had some surprising big pass plays at times, so there is potential they get some here. With that said, the 37.5 may be high enough I take something small on Tulane. If Ohio St scores like 55, Tulane may be able to get 20. Ohio State can likely name their score, even when Martell comes in, they are going to keep scoring if they want.
 
I was thinking I liked Clemson too but something seems to easy about it. I think Clemson is 0-3 ATS this year.
 
s--k said:
Tulane really isn't a triple option in the sense that Army is. I think everyone would be impressed with how Army hung with Ohio State last year, relatively speaking. Tulane is a different animal and easier to stop. It is really more of a shotgun 3/4 WR, or 2 WR with HB/TE zone read type offense than triple option. Alot of Bank's runs are off scrambles rather than designed runs. Tulane passes a good bit, slightly more this year because their OL isn't very good. They have had some surprising big pass plays at times, so there is potential they get some here. With that said, the 37.5 may be high enough I take something small on Tulane. If Ohio St scores like 55, Tulane may be able to get 20. Ohio State can likely name their score, even when Martell comes in, they are going to keep scoring if they want.
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Fair enough, I guess I wasn't trying to directly compare to Army in terms type of option, but its still an option look and in a sandwich spot. I'm seeing a few hiccups from Ohio State defensively that aren't getting fixed and TCU hit a couple of deep balls and had more time in the pocket after Bosa went out. Landers also banged up. OSU only 4/12 on third down vs TCU, Tulane runs similar 4-2-5 defense. I think we see something like 44-17.
 
s--k said:
I was thinking I liked Clemson too but something seems to easy about it. I think Clemson is 0-3 ATS this year.
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Third option team they have faced this year for me pushed it onto a bet. Clemson left a ton of points on the field last week in the Ga Southern game, wouldn't be surprised if this was a woodshed job.
 
Marsski said:
ADD:

Clemson -16.5...third option team of the year for Clemson, Ga Tech 1-5 ATS the last six games dating back to LY.

Tech QB Marshall can't threaten them with the pass...3/13 for 32 yards last year vs Clemson and coming off 6/15 game vs Pitt with only a single completion before the final drive of the game. I love Paul Johnson but he ain't got the horses to stay in this one. Clemson 3-1-1 last five years ATS vs Tech, would be 4-1 but backdoor push last year in final minutes.
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This looks very nice.
 
Marsski said:
Leaning towards Tulane catching more than 35. Bad spot for OSU; Tulane offense tricky to prep for when everyone is thinking about PSU.
Everyone thinks the team will be sky high to have Urban back, but I don't know if they care as much as the fans do.
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That's likely the same reason Illinois may cover against my Nittany Lions this weekend in Champaigne.
 
Marsski said:
Lean Stanford -2. Whipped Oregon's ass 49-7 last year and Love ran for 147. Now these teams are even?
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At -2/1.5 Stanford doesn't have to win by 42 like they did last year, but let me ask you...Do you think Oregon will be 5-13-33-0-2 passing this year? Do you think that Oregon will be 4-of-11 3rd down this year? Do you think Oregon will have TOP deficit of 23-37 minutes this year?

A better offense makes a big difference one year over the other. The fact that Oregon will play this game with a competent O lead by Herbert who missed last year, could indeed mean these teams are even this time around.

Now Stanford could win this game by 3, or 20, or they could lose and Oregon wins by 3 or 20...I do think there is good reason to think this year's game will be quite different than last year based off of what Oregon couldn't do on O last year and what they could do this year. Herbert doesn't play D, but a better O will surely help the Duck D in terms of TOP, physical stamina, competitive enthusiasm and could effect the final outcome in a way the 2017 game was unable to.
 
s--k said:
At -2/1.5 Stanford doesn't have to win by 42 like they did last year, but let me ask you...Do you think Oregon will be 5-13-33-0-2 passing this year? Do you think that Oregon will be 4-of-11 3rd down this year? Do you think Oregon will have TOP deficit of 23-37 minutes this year?

A better offense makes a big difference one year over the other. The fact that Oregon will play this game with a competent O lead by Herbert who missed last year, could indeed mean these teams are even this time around.

Now Stanford could win this game by 3, or 20, or they could lose and Oregon wins by 3 or 20...I do think there is good reason to think this year's game will be quite different than last year based off of what Oregon couldn't do on O last year and what they could do this year. Herbert doesn't play D, but a better O will surely help the Duck D in terms of TOP, physical stamina, competitive enthusiasm and could effect the final outcome in a way the 2017 game was unable to.
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I always respect your opinions.

I like Herbert but wins over BG, Portland State and SJ State aren't exactly anything to write home about. They only beat SJ State by 13 and they were giving 40ish. You tell me where the talent is on that team after Jelks and Herbert. Like Shaw in the match-up vs. Cristobal too.

I think Stanford will run wild on them again, and win comfortably. I do think it will be closer.
 
Yes Oregon has not blown teams out or appeared to be all that engaged so far, the schedule has been ho-hum and they have played that way. Stanford has played better opponents, but also not been exactly dominant. Efficient, yes, impressive, I don't know. I think both of these teams may be getting over-hyped for PAC 12 contention.

I think Stanford's D is a question. Facing a young Fr QB in first road game USC had 4 drives into medium to deep Stan territory net in just 3 pts. Stanford also benefited from +3 turnover margin. I do not think they will be as fortunate vs a more experienced QB. San Diego State showed Stan can be run on, I actually think they can be run and passed on vs the right team. What I think doesn't matter that much because soon we will find out for real.

LB Dye is a very good player inaddition to the more well known names. The LB unit overall has some potential. It is year 2 for Leavitt. DT Jordan Scott should have a bigger impact as a Soph now. But you are well within your rights to question play makers on Oregon's team. The would-be impact players on O this year are 1st or 2nd year Fr and Sophs so we don't know their mettle in big games yet.

My post was primarily to question a flippant remark about these teams being even. Game of Year I saw had it pick'em, now Stan is a small fav. I think this year's game will be much more competitive than what we saw last year because of a better Oregon O will help their D and Stanford D could be a yet to be seen liability.

It is fine, reasonable people can have difference of opinions, all good. I have something else to contribute that will compliment your thinking on another play.
 
Clemson has held Georgia Tech to its fewest total yards of the season in three of the past four years, holding the Yellow Jackets to a season-low 353 yards in 2014, 230 yards in 2015 and 124 yards in 2016.


The only year in the past four that the Tigers didn’t hold Georgia Tech to a season-low number of yards came in 2017 when Georgia held the Yellow Jackets to 226 yards, compared to 230 by Clemson.


The Tigers have held Georgia Tech to an average of 174 yards less than their season average over the past four seasons.


Read more here: https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/article218650900.html#storylink=cpy
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Sorry I was drinking a bit last night, didn't mean to be a dick with the tone in post #23.
 
s--k said:
Yes Oregon has not blown teams out or appeared to be all that engaged so far, the schedule has been ho-hum and they have played that way. Stanford has played better opponents, but also not been exactly dominant. Efficient, yes, impressive, I don't know. I think both of these teams may be getting over-hyped for PAC 12 contention.

I think Stanford's D is a question. Facing a young Fr QB in first road game USC had 4 drives into medium to deep Stan territory net in just 3 pts. Stanford also benefited from +3 turnover margin. I do not think they will be as fortunate vs a more experienced QB. San Diego State showed Stan can be run on, I actually think they can be run and passed on vs the right team. What I think doesn't matter that much because soon we will find out for real.

LB Dye is a very good player inaddition to the more well known names. The LB unit overall has some potential. It is year 2 for Leavitt. DT Jordan Scott should have a bigger impact as a Soph now. But you are well within your rights to question play makers on Oregon's team. The would-be impact players on O this year are 1st or 2nd year Fr and Sophs so we don't know their mettle in big games yet.

My post was primarily to question a flippant remark about these teams being even. Game of Year I saw had it pick'em, now Stan is a small fav. I think this year's game will be much more competitive than what we saw last year because of a better Oregon O will help their D and Stanford D could be a yet to be seen liability.

It is fine, reasonable people can have difference of opinions, all good. I have something else to contribute that will compliment your thinking on another play.
Click to expand...

Oregon‘s O is not better unless you mean better than without Herbert which is quite trivially true. Oregon‘s O is underdoing a major transition one of which includes playing without quality backfield (Oregon could lean on Freeman without Herbert now its vice versa) less zone reads just different designs, namely more power-oriented and more pro-style passing
 
Love: 21 carries 77 yards vs USC with one 56 yard gain. 18 carries vs 29 yards vs SD State. I dont think its fair to assume Love runs wild on Oregon when you talk about Oregon underachieving in auto wins but overlook how different Stanford‘s O has been in terms of finding productivity. I think Stanford will win but it will be bc of Costello and Whiteside, not Love

Year to year results change all the time
 
Marsski said:
I always respect your opinions.

I like Herbert but wins over BG, Portland State and SJ State aren't exactly anything to write home about. They only beat SJ State by 13 and they were giving 40ish. You tell me where the talent is on that team after Jelks and Herbert. Like Shaw in the match-up vs. Cristobal too.

I think Stanford will run wild on them again, and win comfortably. I do think it will be closer.
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Teams underachieve in alleged auto wins all the time. Like PSU vs App State. Notre Dame beat Ball State by eight even tho it was favored by five touchdowns and beat Michigan. You just can‘t know what’s behind an ugly box score by looking at it. Like Sportscenter made Cornelius look good after the opener where he threw 5 td‘s when all his td‘s were short passes where the receiver did all thr work and his pass accuracy was actually awful
 
Oregon players were super frustrated by Taggart‘s departure and they laid an egg in that bowl game. Maybe the players haven‘t bought into Cristobal yet and thats a problem
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Love: 21 carries 77 yards vs USC with one 56 yard gain. 18 carries vs 29 yards vs SD State. I dont think its fair to assume Love runs wild on Oregon when you talk about Oregon underachieving in auto wins but overlook how different Stanford‘s O has been in terms of finding productivity. I think Stanford will win but it will be bc of Costello and Whiteside, not Love

Year to year results change all the time
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How good is Oregon's run D though? No 25 last year in the numbers but when they were underdogs gave up 87, 248 (Stanford), 142, 91, 247. I think they can be run on again this year.
 
Marsski said:
How good is Oregon's run D though? No 25 last year in the numbers but when they were underdogs gave up 87, 248 (Stanford), 142, 91, 247. I think they can be run on again this year.
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Unfair to look at last year cause without Herbert they got killed in time of possession. Besides, in first year with new DC the way to look at it is that they enjoyed massive improvement despite important injuries on DL. They‘ll keep getting better with good returning experience on DL led by Jelks and linebackers led by Dye. Hollins is also a stud at wreacking havoc
 
Marsski, i‘m on Stanford, too. Just my main reasoning is Stanford pass attack vs Oregon secondary and Stanford secondary vs Oregon receivers
 
I don’t know which team to play.
And you guys have been no help. :angrysnarl:

Seriously, an excellent thread.
 
Well-written and interesting to read as always. You do a good job of being entertaining with some light humor some insight easy and smooth writing style. Makes the reader feel like he‘s reading with great ease and not digging into Kant or one of my articles lol
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Well-written and interesting to read as always. You do a good job of being entertaining with some light humor some insight easy and smooth writing style. Makes the reader feel like he‘s reading with great ease and not digging into Kant or one of my articles lol
Click to expand...

Just keep chopping wood, it'll get easier and your writing will get stronger. It took me a long time to get to OK at it and I was doing it 4 days a week.
 
Going up to the Tribe game tonight, gonna play a little parlay...

Half Unit Parlay: Indians/Sawx Ov 7 (Fri)/Clemson ML/E Car/S Fla Over 68 to win 1.53 units
 
You watch any of the Ohio - UVA game?

I can't envision Cincy O getting the kind of explosive plays UVA had last week. What concerns me is UC lining up and pounding away on Ohio and wearing them out and Warren having a big game. They will have some success. The style of this game should tend to play more to Ohio's capabilities more than the Virginia game did. Any thoughts on that one? We need Ohio to get their O out of the gates fast for once this year. Or atleast don't get in a hole.
 
s--k said:
You watch any of the Ohio - UVA game?

I can't envision Cincy O getting the kind of explosive plays UVA had last week. What concerns me is UC lining up and pounding away on Ohio and wearing them out and Warren having a big game. They will have some success. The style of this game should tend to play more to Ohio's capabilities more than the Virginia game did. Any thoughts on that one? We need Ohio to get their O out of the gates fast for once this year. Or atleast don't get in a hole.
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YEs, I missed the first few minutes when OU got down 14-0 but saw the rest. Pounding Warren is their best offensive weapon and I agree that they will have some success although I do think OU has strong line play for a MAC team. I think OU has by far the more explosive offense in this game and Rourke will have time to get the ball downfield. I lean OU +7.5 and also lean OU Over on TT if it comes 23. If Miami/Cincy was pick, there is great value in OU today because I would have OU -4.5 vs Miami on N...
 
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