Week 4 What Did We Learn

[wiseplayer]

I was at the Rams game so didn't see any other games Sunday. I can say that K. Murray has arrived from an IQ standpoint and he's become extremely accurate. Arizona has figured out how to protect the QB and play D. Murray however is the single biggest news in the NFL.

 

[Capaholic]

The key here is to talk about what we saw, but also use it very little when capping this weeks games. (There are exceptions)

I, myself, swore not to bet again on the Giants or Jets after Week 3 and they were my top 2 plays of this week.

This is one of the best threads going as always. But I advise not using much of Week 4 when capping Week 5 unless it’s something like Denver (QB situation) or Houston (have they euthanized Davis Mills yet)

Just my two cents.

 

[Joe Public]

I don’t know for sure, but I don’t think the hamstring injuries to AJ and Julio are that bad. I think it’s a combination of Tenn being cautious as hammies can be tricky, and you don’t want it to linger all year, along with it being a long season and it’s early, and neither got work in the preseason so they are working up to game speed and putting them out there “injured” now only increases chance of aggravating the injury. Let them rest, I’d guess one plays Sunday, at least. The OL is a more troubling issue as this is the 2nd game they’ve gotten whipped, but not sure I can put it on them here as they had absolutely zero pass catching threat to speak of

This was my thought too, esp. about the receivers. Obviously hamstrings are tricky, but it very much felt like they were just not respecting the Jets at all.

 

[Joe Public]

The key here is to talk about what we saw, but also use it very little when capping this weeks games. (There are exceptions)

I, myself, swore not to bet again on the Giants or Jets after Week 3 and they were my top 2 plays of this week.

This is a huge thing. It's also something I don't do a great job with, tbh.

The Giants are a great example of this. Before Week 3, I LOVED New Orleans in this Week 4 spot. But then they went and won a really tough road game in NE and the Giants lost a very winable game at home. I tried to convince myself that wouldn't matter. I also tried to convince myself that the pressure of that first home game in NO, and guys returning home for the first time in weeks, wouldn't be too much pressure because now they're 2-1 with a couple of huge wins and the stakes are higher.

In other words, a lot of the things that I originally liked about the spot were now different, but I found ways to use Week 3 to still justify the play—even though I did adjust and remove NO from my survivor spot that I had them slated for before the season started.

I guess the bigger specific question is, where do you draw the line of what to throw out? Which is probably more of a subjective thing, everybody having their own process. But the idea that these games are significant, can tell you things, but are also self-contained single events that will never be able to tell you everything is a pretty good way to attack it.