A few things really jumped out at me.
First, I look like an idiot for going all in on the Hot Take factory statements of the Giants and Colts’ seasons being over last week. Good call by me there.
But one thing you really remember in a week like this is that it’s still the NFL and there’s a desperation that happens when you’re winless. Kudos to the Giants and Colts for going on the road and not quitting. More on them in a second.
Second, the major actionable thing I took away from this week overall is, unfortunately, injuries.
This may be one of those weeks were there isn’t as much talk about injuries because you don’t have some big name, starting QB have their leg ripped off and thrown into the sea. Which is something part of me wants to see, but also feels bad about ever rooting for.
But the point is, this week, a bunch of teams started getting cluster injuries. Cluster injuries and just volumes of injuries. For example:
Tampa Bay basically doesn’t have any cornerbacks any more. Yes, they brought in Richard Sherman, but I think he’s the only one who made it out of that game healthy. Which means none of their starting corners from the season are around. I’m pretty sure they’re signing practice squad players at this point. This secondary has huge issues with injury. This screams overs with this team. The major problem with that, as we saw last night, is that when there’s no Gronk, Brady isn’t as good in the redzone.
Denver didn’t so much have positional cluster injuries, although with two of their WRs out you could argue they already did, but they took a number of hits on defense yesterday. I don’t know who’s out or not for next week, but the overall hit to Denver coming out of this game was really significant. Which is shitty for the Donks and also bad for me personally as, if these two teams were healthy, I’d definitely be betting Denver at Pittsburgh next week. As it is, I think that game is Pittsburgh or pass.
Pittsburgh is also a mess, but I feel like they’re a slightly healthier mess than Denver right now. And, if Bridgewater is out next week, I can’t in good conscience bet on Drew Lock over Big Ben—even though Ben looks like shit right now and will probably limp his way through this entire season before he retires. I’m still sticking with, ‘The Steelers suck,’ until further notice—even though at -1 this week they’re very tempting.
Speaking of injuries, the hits just keep on coming for
San Francisco. I saw a lot of love for Seattle coming into this game and I stayed off because I’m trying to believe my SF to win the division bet still has legs. But this week their kicker couldn’t go and now Jimmy G. is hurt. This might be a blessing in disguise in some ways at the QB spot, but I’m not sure of that. They also lost Trent Williams on the OL. Their secondary also worries me. Basically, this team has more questions than answers for me right now. Which is funny because if people keep betting up Arizona, I will probably be on the other side and back this MASH unit on Sunday. Arizona is historically a really bad favorite. Great dog, but a bad favorite.
Maybe the one other team that felt like it got really dinged up coming out of last night was
Green Bay which sucks. I mean, I was on them so it would have sucked more had they not gotten the money, but it still sucks because GB was really falling into that category for me of, ‘They’re back and ready to run their way up to 13 wins.’ Now they may have to limp along here for a week or two. Nice let down spot for them this week, imo, especially vs. a Cincy team that has started really slow in the first half all year and is finally making noise about doing something about it.
All right, let’s see if anything from specific teams can make us money.
Philly: This is one I know, and I hope that I’ve been able to help some people with them the last two weeks. Also, I’m mad I didn’t play the over in this game. I don’t even have a good reason, I just didn’t look hard at totals this week because there were sides I liked and well, phtpth, missed out on the money here.
Here’s the thing, as early as the draft Philly knew and essentially admitted their secondary was the weakest part of the team. They lost Jalen Mills to NE, the were already thin at corner, etc. Then, in the draft, they chose to go skill players and OL this year and save CB for free agency/the draft next year. Totally fine. But now Brandon Graham is out. This means you can block this Eagles’ DL if you have a decent OL. That means you are going to give your QB time to feast on that secondary.
This is exactly what has happened the last two weeks. And there’s no reason to think that will not continue for the rest of the season. If this team plays a good QB with a decent OL, they’re giving up 27. Conversely, the Birds did something smart yesterday which may be really good for Jalen Hurts long term. They. Played. Fast. It helped they were playing a defense that can’t stop anyone, but this is the way this team is going to see if Hurts is their guy. And it’s great for overs.
Big problem for the Eagles on offense is, yesterday only one OL who was their Week 1 starter was their Week 4 starter. They’re going to be an OL problem child all year.
Kansas City: I finally understand who Mahomes reminds me of, it’s young Brett Farve. There are times when his mobility would allow him to just take the 5-6 yard play the defense has broken down to give him. But instead he tries to do something awesome for like 30+. Which is cool, but also really frustrating. You’re better than they are, just keep moving the ball. Also, this team can’t stop anybody. So stop being dumb, take six and nine yards a play, and win 30-24.
Also, I can’t believe it’s over a decade later and we’re still talking about Andy Reid not being able to manage a clock, but we are. I can talk more about this if anybody cares, but this is also frustrating. Anyway, I’m teasing Buffalo this week. I can’t see any other way. KC’s defense demands it.
Buffalo: I heard a stat this AM that the last team to throw up to 30+ point shutouts was the 2001 Ravens team that won it all. I don’t think Buffalo’s defense is that good, but damn this team seems like they’re in playoff form.
Tennessee: Sigh. So, I think Tenny made a bit of a business decision this week. I don’t know how hurt Brown and Jones are, but they were hurt ‘enough’ that Tenny said they could beat the shitty Jets without them. And here we are. Again, it’s still the NFL and these guys are playing for their lives every week. Also, this sucks for Henry because you shouldn’t force that guy to start carrying your team in Week 4. Do that and he won’t make it until Week 20 when you really need him. I still like this team, but this was a bad loss, no way around it. You allowed seven sacks for fuck’s sake. SEVEN. IN ONE GAME. TO THE JETS. May make for a good bounce back team this week, though you need to see what the injury situation is.
Fuck the
Jets. I won’t play it, but what a terrible spot for them in London this weekend.
Atlanta: Atlanta also sucks, and I keep telling myself to throw out that Week 1 loss and look at this team accordingly. When you do that what you see is a team that is getting better on offense and, esp. yesterday, really moving the ball well. But they are still a team that doesn’t really know how to win. I have a lot of trouble backing them unless they’re in really favorable spots or are catching a lot of points.
Washington: The secret is out. I’m not sure who said it here either last week or the week before, but this defense is a mess. That secondary is a mess. They can’t stop anybody, which is a huge problem, because the entire premise of Washington competing for the playoffs is, that defense is so good, they will score 20 and win. Not right now they won’t. Now you’re asking a rookie to play over his head to give you a shot every week.That’s worked twice against two bad teams in NY and Atlanta, but that luck is going to run out in a big way—as we saw vs. Buffalo.
Carolina: This was such a super sexy pick this week. So many seemed like they were on it that I laid off Dallas thinking maybe I was the one who was missing the boat here. But without McCaffrey you can just scheme this team different. And if you have a good OL or can get a good game out of your OL, well, it’s probably going to be a long day for Carolina, at least against good teams.
That said, in the scheme of their schedule, I don’t think this was penciled as a win. I like the spot for them at home this week. Philly may give them fits if they play fast and move Hurts around, but I think everything Carolina wanted to do against Dallas’ OL but couldn’t, they do here. They had 1 QB hit and zero sacks this week. WAT. My guess is they fix that vs. Philly. Also, KC ran for like nine yards a carry against Philly. That inability to stop the run should allow Carolina to be far more balanced and have more success this week.
I hate to keep saying this, but
Dallas is good. The big question was going to be that defense, but that’s always been one thing Dan Quinn can do. This game wasn’t as close as the score. Dallas is good.
Miami is a total clusterfuck. I’m not sure how many people saw this coming, but it’s a disaster. Like, I give the Giants credit for winning in NO. Yes, the Saints collapsed, but the Giants won that game. I’m not totally sure Indy won this game as much as Miami lost it. This entire team looks confused and like they’re falling apart. It’s giving me flashbacks to early Flores when people thought he was in over his head. No way I can back this team right now or any time soon.
Indy: Same. I don’t care that they won. No way I can back them. Unless you can tell me they’re playing a team that cannot stop the run at all. Then, cool. Then I will look at them. Otherwise, hard pass. They got up off the mat yesterday, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them end up back there next week, largely because they have to go to Baltimore. At night. Fuuuuck that.
Baltimore: I had the Donks, I was wrong. Now, had I known Drew Lock would be playing an entire half of that football game I would ‘not’ have had the Donks, but these things happen. Also, I thought this was a good let-down spot for Balty. Kudos to them for treating that last second win in Detroit almost like a loss, and kudos to Lamar for this win. Denver admitted that their game plan was to make Lamar beat them from the pocket. And Lamar beat them from the pocket. I think this bodes poorly for Indy next week too.
Chicago is going to go back to Dalton if he’s healthy, which may be the right thing to do since Nagy doesn’t seem to know what he’s doing with Fields. But I don’t have any faith in Dalton behind that OL and if he’s back under center, I’m back looking to play against the Bears.
Cleveland: This team is good. One thing that jumped out at me yesterday, and Cleveland really embodies this, was how the good teams found a way to win and the teams that are just on the cusp of that, found a way to lose a game they should win. For example: New Orleans, Tennessee, New England (not the better team, but could have easily won that game and didn’t). Conversely, a team like Cleveland goes in, Mayfield sucks out loud, but their defense holds Minny to next to nothing, and get it done in Minny. I think Cleveland is good.
Minny: I still think this team is who I’ve thought they’d be all year.. They seem like they’re on that same level as a handful of mid-tier NFC teams with Seattle, Arizona, Carolina, and NO, but slightly worse. Anyway, nothing about the NFC North is interesting to me to back unless it’s a healthy Green Bay. Everything else, I’ll pass or go against. Yes, including Detroit who apparently could have had a shot in that game but had like five trips into the redzone where they got exactly zero points. Impressive.
New Orleans: Twinkie has talked a bit about how you blow an 11 point lead with six to go in the game. But all I saw at the end of that thing was an NO defense that seemed gassed and a Saquon Barkley who felt like he could do anything he wanted to them. Which, short of putting two fingers in their asshole at an area Hooter’s, I believe he did. Still, looking at the box score, I’m genuinely confused at how this team lost. So is my teaser which never did anything to hurt anyone and is now dead in the street.
A couple of overall notes:
As overs make a comeback (did they finally split 50/50 yesterday?), there are some teams I want to look at to provide them:
- KC
- Arizona
- LA Rams
- Tampa
- Dallas
- Washington
(Also, the Raiders are 2-1 to the over going into MNF, so they could make this list as well)
Teams that have have not hit an over through four weeks:
- NE
- Denver
- LA Chargers
- Pittsburgh
There’s then a huge number of teams that are 1-3 to the over, but one of which that may surprise you is Buffalo. You need two teams to hit an over.
Teams that are currently 3-1 or better ATS:
- Dallas (4-0)
- Denver
- Buffalo
- Arizona
- Green Bay
- Cleveland
- Carolina
Buffalo and GB are on a run of three straight here, btw.
Teams that are 1-3 ATS so far (everybody bad, also KC & TB):
- KC
- TB
- Jax
- Wash
- NYJ
- Pitt
- Philly
- SF
- Atlanta
Obviously Pitt is on a three game streak here, same with Philly. And KC was 0-3 ATS before yesterday.
I’d go into sacks allowed, but I think yesterday really skewed some of the numbers for teams. Tenny gave up seven so now they’re the worst in the league—obviously skewed. Denver gave up five, skewed. But sandwiched in there are Chicago, Miami, and the Jets. Which still applies.
Also, Cleveland is still giving up like three sacks a game. That is not good. Same with Baltimore. That probably won’t matter for Baltimore this week vs. Indy, but it may for Cleveland out in L.A. vs. the Chargers.
