Week 4 plays/leans, Week 3 recap, and my opinion on Marshall/Cincy

[Dmoney416]

Week 1: 5-5, +2.25u
Week 2: 5-4, +0.8u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 3: 7-3-1, +6.85u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Straight plays: 17-12-1, +10.70u
MLs: 0-2, -0.8u
Total: 17-14-1, +9.90u

Good week last week, got some good numbers and felt like I knew what I was doing. The big MAC spreads turned out to be warranted, and I apologize to anyone that I convinced to either take Western Michigan or to not bet Missouri. I simply misjudged that game. Hi what I perceived to be weak totals early and it worked, as those went 4-0.

Week 4 plays:

Georgia Tech -3 (-115) (2.875u to win 2.5)
Penn State -3 (2.75u to win 2.5)
Duke/Navy Over 51 (2.75u to win 2.5) - I may hedge out of this and focus on Navy TT. Hope to get 31.
Navy Team Total Over 32 (-115) (2.3u to win 2)
San Jose St./Utah St. Under 47 (2.2u to win 2)
Wisconsin -8.5 (2.2u to win 2) - D'oh!
Oklahoma -20 (2.2u to win 2)
Idaho -1 (2.2u to win 2)
Purdue Team Total Over 40 (-115) (1.725u to win 1.5)
East Carolina +26.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Oregon St +11.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Baylor/Buffalo Over 53.5 (0.825u to win 0.75)

Week 4 Leans:

Connecticut +8.5 - Give me 10 here and I will play it.



Obviously, won't be playing all of these and I expect to end up with my normal 10-12 plays. I didn't add anything on gameday this week, and that worked out well. I think I was 1-3 on spontaneous gameday wagers in the first two weeks, so I trying to avoid that stuff if possible.

Write-ups coming over the next couple of days. GL to all this week. :cheers:

 

[Dmoney416]

Adding:

Idaho -1 (2.2u to win 2) - This is on the move, so I got it now. Already
-2 at BM.

 

[Dmoney416]

Marshall at Cincinnati (-22)

The Cincinnati Bearcats' hype machine grew a little bit on Saturday, as they walked into Miami OH and thrashed the Redhawks, 47-10 in a game that was never really in doubt. Marshall fell to 0-3 after losing to I-AA powerhouse New Hampshire, 48-35. However, this final was deceiving. Bernard Morris did not start due to turf toe, and came in late in the first half with Marshall trailing 24-0. He was the bright spot for them as he ended up throwing 31-42 for 417 yards and 3 TDs.

"I looked back at him, and said I need you," Snyder said. "He said 'OK then, I'll go.' I just hope he's ready to go at Cincinnati (next week). He's going to be hurting tonight. Note: If Morris does not go against Cincy, my opinion of this game drastically changes.


Cincinnati has caused an astounding 17 turnovers in their first three games, and they are a ridiculous +13 in turnover margin. Is this defense that good? Yes, I believe it is. They are fast, they have some depth, they don't seem to get tired late in games, and they seem to be solid both against the run and the pass.

The offense has scored 140 points in three games. Is this offense that good? No, not even close. They are by no means a bad offense, but they are still learning the spread offense and they are not quite there yet. If you look at the box scores, you will find that the turnovers have led to scores and that the yardage discrepancies between them and their opponents is not that big (some of this is garbage yardage from the opponent, but still).

Despite three blowouts to start the season, this team still has some glaring questions. The kicking woes that were there against SEMO returned on Saturday, as Jake Rogers was only 1-3 on FGs, making a 27 yarder and then badly shanking the other two. It is clear that his 55 yarder against Oregon St. that Rogers has the leg, but the mental part of his kicking game is clearly not there yet.

Also, Ben Mauk was kept out of the Miami OH game with a "tired" shoulder. Brian Kelly said it was nothing serious, but he just had no zip on the ball. Veteran Dustin Grutza came in and did an admirable job, going 25-35 for 290 yards and 2 TDs. As of now, I have no info with what they expect to do this week. Still, one wonders if they will rest him until conference play with a perceived "easy" win coming up this week. Grutza isn't bad, and he did a great job against Miami OH, but he lacks some skills and the playbook is a bit limited with him at the helm.

Marshall doesn't run much with the RBs, which is probably a good thing for them as they would have a tough time running here anyway.

Here is what I think is the X-factor for Marshall: Morris' ability to run. He only had 40 yards on 33 carries this year, but a decent amount of those are sacks. The only running game that Cincy struggled against was SEMO's. The key to their running game was QB Victor Anderson, who went for 118 yards on 13 carries. Most of these were not designed runs, but broken plays where Cincy had concentrated their efforts on locking down the WRs in a zone scheme. The fact that Morris is able to run (assuming the turf toe does not affect him too badly) is huge in this situation.

I could see Cincy letting down here just a bit. Also, I think that their current questions at QB and K doesn't warrant them laying this kind of number. Bernard Morris also seems like he is growing, finally starting to avoid mistakes while throwing the ball well.

If Morris is at full strength, I like Marshall plus the points here. If he plays and is hobbled, I would stay away from this game, as I feel his mobility is important part of this game. If Brian Anderson gets the start, I would actually lean toward Cincinnati, as Anderson did nothing against New Hampshire and would most likely struggle mightily with Cincy's D.

If Morris plays at full strength, I think you will see a tightly contested game here with Cincy gradually pulling away in the second half. This will be a no play for me, but if you are looking at betting this game, keep a close eye on Morris' status before pulling the trigger.

Cincinnati 31
Marshall 17
(If Morris plays at full strength)

 

[HUNT]

gl dmoney...solid plays.

 

[Tenderviddles2]

Hey D$$$$$, how are you? I can't remember when the totals came out last week ?- Weds at 5 eastern I think. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Nice week last week. The record is improving and I'm not surprised!!!!! GL

 

[Dmoney416]

I'm good TV - how are you? I think it was 5 Eastern on Tuesday, but I'd be on the lookout starting late Monday afternoon just in case. I had three different people at Bookmaker tell me that they wouldn't come out until Thursday last week, and yet they came out 2 days earlier.

GL this week.

 

[Tenderviddles2]

I'm real good. Doing well in CFB. I'm not great at the pros and the baseball season is entirely too long. I'll keep a look out though on the totals. Lots of potential overs this week. GL

 

[RetroVK]

Get that bronco avatar off of there !!! second and goal from the one and they get a 5 yard penalty. hehe i am officially avoiding MAC teams from now on.

like the looks of your games other than the wiscy as i see that game being really low scoring making that number tough to cover.

 

[Dmoney416]

Northern Illinois at Idaho (-1)

Injury Report

IDAHO - Linebacker Paul Senescall (9/5, knee) is expected to miss at least 4-5 weeks.

- Senescall is a backup linebacker.

NORTHERN ILL - Tight end Reed Cunningham (9/11, high ankle sprain) is out indefinitely. *Wide receiver Marcus Perez (9/17, sprained shoulder) is questionable for Saturday's game against Idaho. Linebacker Tim McCarthy (9/11, torn MCL/PCL) is out indefinitely. Running back Montell Clanton (9/11, torn ACL) is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

- Reed Cunningham is a back-up TE
- Marcus Perez is a starting WR and the team's 2nd leading receiver last season with 30 catches for 406 yards and 5 TDs. He had 2 catches and 16 yards so far this season.
- Tim McCarthy was the team's leading returning tackler with 111 tackles and 2 INT last season. With McCarthy gone, N. Ill is now without their top three tacklers from last season.
- Montell Clanton was a back-up RB last season and was splitting time with Justin Anderson as the starter this season before going down. He had 26 carries for 140 yards (5.4 avg) and a TD in two games.

The Game

Both teams are in a bit of a look-ahead spot here, as Idaho hosts Hawaii next week while N. Ill's MAC schedule really kicks into gear with a trip to Central Michigan. I would argue though that Northern Illinois is in a worse position.

Put yourself in the Huskies' shoes for a moment. You lost Wolfe after last season, and while they were not considered a frontrunner in the MAC, they were considered a decent team coming into the season that was expected to make a bowl game. That dream has been nearly dashed in three short games. After losing to Iowa, N. Ill lost to I-AA Southern Illinois after giving up 20 unanswered points in the 4th quarter. Then their comeback attempt fell short last week against perennial MAC bottom dweller Eastern Michigan. They now sit at 0-3 and I am sure they are anxious to jump into the bulk of the conference schedule. But first, they have to take a trip to Moscow, Idaho to face an improving Idaho Vandals squad. This is a horrendous spot for them and it is their first true road game this season.

With all of their injuries, Northern Illinois offense now seems to revolve around RB Justin Anderson. With Clanton gone, Anderson now has the job to himself. He responded with 168 yards on 28 carries against Eastern Michigan last week. QB Dan Nicholson has not been bad, but this team lacks a vertical passing attack. He is an impressive 67-97 for 597 yards, but he has an ugly 7 INTs compared to just 3 TDs. Much of this attack revolves around quick tosses and screens, as Justin Anderson is also the leading WR with 159 yards and 2 TDs. I expect a similar approach against Idaho. Lots of running and a quick passing attack.

The defense has basically taken a bend but don't break approach. They allowed only 16 points to Iowa in week 1 despite the fact that two Iowa RBs ran for over 100 yards. The defense finally broke down late against Southern Ill, as two late passing TDs led to a loss. Then the EMU rushing attack gave them some problems, as EMU ran for 189 yards and 3 TDs (including one 68 yard run).

Idaho is 2-0 against the spread this year, and I view this as a steadily improving team. They are led by their rushing attack, specifically RB Deonte Jackson. He has 80 carries for 426 yards (5.3 avg) and a TD thus far. Jackson has done well in all three games, rushing for 99 yards @#1 USC, 214 yards against I-AA Cal Poly, and 113 yards @ Wash St.

The passing game is similar to that of Northern Ill. They try to keep it short and they tend to get in trouble when trying to stretch the field. QB Nathan Enderle is an ugly 40-91 (44%) for 461 yards, but has a respectable 4 TDs and 4 INTs. He protected the ball well in the first two games, but had an erratic game against Washington St. which included 3 TDs and 4 INT due to the fact that they had to keep up with a quick striking Wash St. offense.

Idaho's defense was pathetic last season, giving up 34.8 ppg and 4.9 yards per carry. However, they return their top six tacklers to this year's squad, and I feel that the run defense has improved tremendously. They lost @ USC 38-10 as 46 point underdogs, and while the D gave up 214 yards rushing and 5 yards per carry, I would argue that this is not too bad given the huge gap in talent. They came back against Cal Poly in a 20-13 win and held them to 3.4 yards per rush. They then lost to Washington St. 45-28 as 26 point dogs. Despite the score, they held Wash St. to 3.5 yards per carry. The D's biggest weakness seems to be their vulnerability to the spread offense. Washington St.'s Alex Brink thrashed them for 307 yards and 4 TDs. However, Northern Illinois lacks this in their offense and I feel that Idaho can contain the run which appears to be their strength.

Northern Illinois' confidence has to be shot right now, and I don't think that they will be too excited for a trip to Moscow, Idaho. They lack consistency on either side of the ball, and I expect Idaho to take advantage of Nicholson's tendency to make mistakes. Idaho is by no means a great team, but I like them to be up for this rare non-conference foe. They have a great shot to even up their record before conference play.

Idaho 24
Northern Illinois 16

 

[Dmoney416]

Sounds good TV - my best guess is still Tuesday afternoon, but they might change it up in order avoid getting beat up on potentially weak numbers.

Done VK - I still see potential in WMU, but they make so many damn mistakes. I kind of agree on Wisky as I jumped the gun there. Hopefully Wisky has enough offense to win, as they have a huge QB advantage in that one IMO.

 

[E.T.G.]

DMoney.. Glad to see you jump on Idaho. I am pissed I didn't take them +1. The fact that NoIlly was favored in this matchup is a joke. Great writep and I will add some of my own thoughts later.

 

[Dmoney416]

Thanks ETG - GL this week.

I should add, if Choice is declared good enough to go for GT, there is a chance that I add to that play.

Should have a couple write-ups for tomorrow along with a couple totals.

 

[RetroVK]

Awesome writeup on the northern illinois at idaho game. love your threads every week. keep up the great capping , sir.

 

[Dmoney416]

Thanks VK.

Added:

Duke/Navy Over 51 (2.75u to win 2.5) - I may hedge out of this and focus on Navy TT. Hope to get 31.
San Jose St./Utah St. Under 47 (2.2u to win 2)

 

[Dmoney416]

Update on Northern Ill's injuries:

NORTHERN ILL -
*Defensive end Anthony Antonacci (9/17, right knee) is questionable for Saturday's game against Idaho.
*Defensive tackle Craig Rusch (9/18, right knee) may miss the remainder of the season.
Tight end Reed Cunningham (9/11, high ankle sprain) is out indefinitely.

*Wide receiver Marcus Perez (9/17, sprained shoulder) is questionable for Saturday's game against Idaho.
Linebacker Tim McCarthy (9/11, torn MCL/PCL) is out indefinitely. Running back
Montell Clanton (9/11, torn ACL) is expected to miss the remainder of the season.


Rusch and Antonacci were added to the injury report. Rusch is a starting DE (49 tackles, 6 sacks, 8 tackles for loss last season) and Antonacci is the 3rd stringer at the same spot.

 

[RetroVK]

Notre Dame qb gonna sneak into the game ?

 

[Dmoney416]

VK - Ha, ND will have to release him from his scholarship first.

Adding:

Purdue Team Total Over 40 (-115) (1.725u to win 1.5)

Still eyeing the Navy total, but I want to see where BM opens it at. The Purdue/Minny total has ticked back up to 70, so I want to get this in now.

 

[Dmoney416]

Added:

Navy Team Total Over 32 (-115) (2.3u to win 2)

 

[Dmoney416]

Duke/Navy Over 51 and Navy TT Over 32:

Last season's game was played at Duke, and Navy took that game 38-13 as ten point favorites.

It was a bit of sloppy game where more points should have been scored:

- Navy fumbled three times, including once at midfield and once at the Duke 25 yard line.
- Duke fumbled once, had a 29 yard FG blocked, had a missed XP, and was stuffed on 4th and goal at the Navy 1 yard line.

Navy had their way all day on the ground, rushing 70 times for an astonishing 435 yards (6.2 ypc). Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada only passed four times throughout the entire game. Navy did not punt once.

Now what changes coming into this year's game?

Navy's Offense:

On Navy's offense, not much changes. While only 2 of the 5 return on the OL, they have plenty of experience and have shown already this season that they are more than capable of blocking for this rushing attack. Starter Brian Hampton is now gone, but he was already injured for the Duke game anyway, so no real changes there in terms of last year's Duke game. Jason Tomlinson, the team's 2nd leading receiver with 195 yards, is also gone. Six of the eight top rushers are back and I see no reason why they don't eat Duke alive on the ground.

Duke offense:

No changes. All eleven offensive players return.

Navy defense:

Massive changes and it has shown it their first three games. 19 to Temple, 41 to Rutgers, and 34 to Ball St. They are also getting beat up both on the ground in through the air. They were led by a veteran D last season, but they only returned three defensive starters from last season. Only seven of their top 19 tacklers return from last season, including only 2 of their 11 top tacklers.

Also, there are injuries aplenty:

- Linebacker Irv Spencer (9/19, ankle) is probable for Saturday's game against Duke.
- Quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada (9/19, ankle) is probable for Saturday's game against Duke.
- Linebacker Clint Sovie (9/19, sprained left ankle) will miss the remainder of the season.
- Safety Jeff Deliz (9/19, sprained right ankle) will miss the remainder of the season.
-Cornerback Greg Thrasher (9/17, disciplinary) is questionable for Saturday's game against Duke.

Sovie and Deliz are both important cogs on this offense. Sovie was the team's leading returning tackler with 61. Without him, they have lost their top 8 tacklers from last season. Deliz had 25 tackles last season. Greg Thrasher is the starting CB and had 43 tackles in 2005. With Sovie out and Thrasher potentially out, Navy could be without ten of their eleven defensive starters from last season.

Duke Defense:

Duke returns five defensive starters, including two of their top four tacklers. To be honest, I am not sure that there is anything they can do to stop this Navy rushing attack.

DUKE

- *Linebacker Charles Robinson (9/20, knee surgery) is out indefinitely.
- *Guard Ben Loebner (9/20, ankle surgery) will miss the remainder of the season.
- *Defensive end Ryan Radloff (9/20, back) is expected to miss Saturday's game against Navy.
- *Fullback Tielor Robinson (9/20, left ankle surgery) is out indefinitely.

No huge injuries on the Duke side, but Robinson is the starting fullback.

As you can see, I feel that there should have been a little more scoring in last year's game, and that the off-season changes will only benefit the offenses of both teams (not to mention the off-season clock changes). The only reason that I do not hold a Navy spread ticket is due to their inexperienced defense.

Navy 41
Duke 21

 

[Dmoney416]

Adding:

Oregon St +11.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Baylor/Buffalo Over 53.5 (0.825u to win 0.75): This was a borderline play as I missed the good number, but I still like it enough to make a very small play on it.

The only remaining lean is UConn and I need 10 to play that game. I think I am headed to Atlantic City tonight, so I may not be able to respond before the games start tomorrow. GL to all tonight/tomorrow.

 

[RetroVK]

Great thread again this week dmoney. Have fun in atlantic city and i hope you cash that navy ticket on the midshipmens way to a blowout. Glad to see you pull the trigger on oregon state too.