Week #4 of CFB (9/17-9/20)

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
'08 YTD: 17-15-3, +.975 units

Week 3 was freakin' lame. What looked like a beauty queen at first, turned out to be a damned pig the morning after. So after gnawing my arm off, i managed to finally escape the skank...and now i'm ready to move on to week 4.


Wednesday, 9/17

Kansas St (-3) over Louisville (-120) for 1 unit L

Thursday, 9/18

Colorado (+3) over W Virginia (-105) for 1 unit W
WVU (-3) 2H over CU (-110) for 1/2 unit W

Fri/Sat Teaser:

UConn (-4) to PSU (-20) to Utah (pk) = 1 to win 1.1

Saturday, 9/20

Auburn (+3) over LSU (-110) for 1 unit

Virginia Tech (+2) over UNC (-110) for 1 unit

UCLA (+1.5) over Arizona (-110) for 1 unit
UCLA (+3) over Arizona (-110) for 3/4 unit

Florida (-7) over Tennessee (-110) for 1 unit

Houston (-6) over Colorado St (-110) for 1 unit

Vanderbilt (+7) over Ole Miss (-120) for 1 unit

Georgia/Arizona St over 48.5 (-110) for 1 unit

Notre Dame/Michigan St over 46.5 (-110) for 1 unit

Boise St/Oregon under 57 (-110) for 1 unit

Fresno St/Toledo over 50.5 (-110) for 1 unit

Wake Forest (+5) over Florida St (-110) for 3/4 unit


Anyhow, i'll fix this post later. Just posting plays for the time being. But i missed the openers this afternoon, and played all of these late Sunday night.

GL :shake:
 
Last edited:
Just played everything for a unit across the board. That said...there's a good chance i'll be adding some to at least the 1st five plays over the remainder of the week. Wanted to have some flexibility, as i watched the lines...

As for the weekday game...

Sizable advantage on the offensive side of the ball, especially at QB, for KSU...and a decent advantage on the defensive side of the ball as well. Louisville's a mess...until they prove otherwise.

As for the weekend games...

In this defensive battle, i'll gladly take the home dog by a fg. Fuck the baseball score from last week. Messy St is twice the team that any of LSU's opponents have been so far. Plus, there's the revenge angle...from last year's 6 pt loss at LSU.

Yeah, UNC looked great at Rutgers. But Rutgers blows. VaTech's defense is a huge jump up in competition for UNC's offense...where UNC's defense is a step down in competition for VaTech, compared to what they just faced with Georgia Tech.

I finally get to bet on my Bruins this season! Arizona showed some of their true colors this past saturday, playing nothing but cupcakes. Just wait until they play a "real" defense this coming saturday. And yes, i know the trip to Provo was brutal. But that's why i bet BYU this past week, saying it would mirror their trip to Utah in '07...which it did. And what happened the following week last year, when they came home to face a 2-1 Washington team? Exactly.

Florida has a QB, the Vols do not. It's as simple as that. Don't believe me? See Crompton's performance in the UCLA game, as exhibit #1.
The only two places i can give the Vols the edge at, heading into the game, are on the o-line and in the secondary. On paper, at least. That said...the Vols o-line wasn't much of a problem for UCLA, and neither was their secondary in the 2nd half...to an unproven QB, who just sucked shit in Provo...and a mediocre offense that had lost it's only 3 legitimate playmakers in the 1st half. In other words, Tenny sucked cock in week one...and they have a whole lot to prove before i'll believe otherwise.

Due to Ike, i'm cutting Houston some slack. Yeah, they shoulda beat AFA...but shit happens. Anyhow...CSU is horrible, bottom line...and getting away from home might be jsut what the doctor ordered for houston. Btw...Keenum should be able to throw all day on CSU, and will be in the mid 400s when it's all said and done.

Lastly tonight, the Commodores. They're on a roll (for them), and i'm sure they'd like for it to continue into their buy week. They beat Ole Miss by 14 at home LY...and i actually made them a slight fav in this game. Snead worries me a bit though, so that's why i bought it to 7 pts. But Ole Miss also has a brutal string of games coming up, which i'm hoping they'll be looking ahead to...at Florida, Scary, at Bama, at Arkansas, Auburn.

Anyhow...that's a brief couple sentences on my first 7 plays of week four. But like i said...i'll be watching the lines, and most likely bumping up many of these plays over the course of the week.

:cheers:
 
vegaskyle said:
interesting card and enjoyed reading your thoughts.

gl this week, especially with florida...because the Vols do indeed swallow.
Click to expand...


thx, VK. fixed it for ya. :smiley_acbe:

added 4 totals @ the office...


Georgia/Arizona St over 48.5
Notre Dame/Michigan St over 46.5
Boise St/Oregon under 57
Fresno St/Toledo over 50.5


all @ -110, and all for a unit a piece.

will be back sometime later to give brief reasonings behind these.

:tiphat:
 
B.A.R. said:
:tiphat:
Click to expand...

:tiphat::tiphat:

very happy that i'm 2 pts better than the current # on 3 of 4 of those totals.



too late to get into the 4 total plays much, but briefly...

UGA's one weakness so far has been their pass defense. And if that horrid o-line gives him any time whatsoever, Carpenter will be taking advantage of that. Possible letdown spot, in this non-conf sandwich game...but i still see UGA coasting to 30+ pts in this one. And the Sun Devils (at home) will be at least matching CMU's output offensively. Tough side to call at 7 pts...but i think the total gets into the low 60s, like a 34-27 type game.

Also see a lot of passing, and a lot of pts being put up, in this Irish/Spartan game. Under a TD, i'd back MSU...but over a TD, and it becomes more of a question. MSU coasted somewhat with FAU last week...but i see this as a 33-24 game, easily going over the #. Add in a couple ND turnovers, and it could get even uglier.

We know Boise's going to want to run the ball, especially in their 1st road game...they're 1st big game of the year. And with the loss/losses at QB, the Ducks will be wanting to do the same...as they prepare for conference play. And after the scare at Purdue last week, i'm sure they're focusing on the defense as well this week. Anyhow, considering the situation, just see a different type of game from Oregon...and something like a 24-14 home win.

Was kind of leaning towards Toledo plus the pts this week, but i couldn't do it. Yeah, it's a total letdown spot for Fresno for sure. But even so...i still see Fresno being able to coast to 30+ pts against the dildo defense. Shit...jsut look what Arizona did to that defense. That said...i fully expect Toledo to put up more than the 14 they did in Fresno in '05. In their 1st home game of the year, against a defense in a letdown game far from home, i see the dildo offense being able to contribute 24+ to the total...so something like a 35-28 type of finish, imo.

'an_horse'
 
Yanks,

What do you think about o51 in Vandy-Ole Miss? I see you on Vandy +7 and maybe that's keeping you off the total.
 
RJ Esq said:
Yanks,

What do you think about o51 in Vandy-Ole Miss? I see you on Vandy +7 and maybe that's keeping you off the total.
Click to expand...

Partly, so...but mostly i just don't like the total here. Only way i see it really going over much is if Snead gets INT happy...which he's been known to do, even against 1aa teams.
Just think it'll be a tightly played game, decided by one score. Just hope that score's a FG. 27-24 vandy works for me, lol.
But even though vandy's somewhat of a darling at the moment...it can't be overlooked that they're facing a buy week, where Ole Miss is facing a 5 game gauntlet.


And Pags :shake:
 
K St blows. :whip:Knew this one smelled funny.

And fuck the thurs nite game. Going back n forth on WVU & CU, making strong cases for both sides...so screw it. Not touching this coin flip.

Don't trust the Friday night line movement either. But since i'm still leaning UConn to an extent...i'm borrowing one of Jump's/RJ's teasers, and putting UConn with Penn St and Utah.

Added teaser:
UConn (-4) to PSU (-20) to Utah (pk)
1 unit to win 1.1

Anyways, i'm done with the weekday games for the week now...and just waiting to see if there's some favorable line movements for Saturday.
 
Yanks is adding a thurs nite play after all...

Colorado (+3) @ (-105) for 1 unit

Why? Because hunt-diggity-dog told him too. :smiley_acbe:
 
lol, jump

Anyways, yanks has 2 more small additions...post dr bob line moves...even though one of them is jsut adding to a current play, with UCLA.

UCLA (+3) @ (-110) for 3/4
and
Wake (+5) @ (-110) for 3/4

possibly more to come...
 
Administrator said:
Yanks is adding a thurs nite play after all...

Colorado (+3) @ (-105) for 1 unit

Why? Because hunt-diggity-dog told him too. :smiley_acbe:
Click to expand...


yanks is pussing out a bit on the Buffs...who frustratingly didn't pull away in the 1H. so, a partial hedge...with a decent middle...and the hopes of still hitting both plays at game's end.

WVU (-3) 2H @ (-110) for 1/2 unit

worried the Buffs wont' contain pat white in the 2nd half, and that they blew too many 1H chances. so hedging half of my initial wager...yet with (imo) a good opportunity to win both plays.

we shall see...
 
worried the Buffs wont' contain pat white in the 2nd half, and that they blew too many 1H chances. so hedging half of my initial wager...yet with (imo) a good opportunity to win both plays.


we shall see...




guess so
 
a very fortunate middle...but i'll gladly take it...as both sides were continually shooting themselves in the foot all night long.
anyways, thurs nite sure took the sour taste of weds nite away...

:cheers:
 
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