Week 4 ML Dogs

We're thinking along the same lines with Army, Cuse and Kentucky. One other interesting one I'll be looking at is South Alabama. Also anyone think Mike Leach and take the lead in any part of that game at LSU?? 1st Qtr? 1st Half? A shocker in Baton Rouge perhaps? A lot has been written about how much LSU lost from last year's team. Of course, programs like that normally simply reload......just throwing it out there for discussion....
 
Had been meaning to play some in early weeks since there’s generally higher variance, so thanks to you for posting yours and reminding me ha. We got pretty lucky on Navy and Syracuse was the only one I missed, but that was probably a bit greedy.
 
I like the idea of going 1q or 1h. Definitely will see regression from LSU and am a big leach fan, but man they got a long way to go with that team. I’m not sure just coaching improvements can fix things with their talent and a new system might take some time. I gotta see both Miss teams play before I’m willing to back.
 
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Coach Dino Babers teams are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS at home vs. teams that are coming off a losing season the year before (see pic 1) including 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS in week 4 or less. (see pic 2) Sounds like Coach Babers does a good job against the teams he is supposed to do a good job against.

:popcorn:

dbabers1.jpg

dbabers2.jpg
 
Coach Hugh Freeze's teams coming home off an away win in weeks 4 or earlier are 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS in his career. (see pic 1) This trend is active this week. However, I substituted coming home off an away loss just to see the difference and his teams are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in his career. (see pic 2) Not shown is I also ran some queries for the entire season and not just weeks 4 or less and found his teams hit ATS at a 72% clip coming home off an away loss versus 50% coming home off and away win. Clearly there is some correlation here with his teams coming home off an away win....they seem to lose their edge for a weekend. What's FIU got this year boys?

:popcorn:

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Neal Brown coached teams are 9-5 SU and 9-4-1 ATS in away game coming off a home win. Interestingly, you see the two wins as a dog were @Nebraska and @LSU while he was at Troy. I seem to recall Nebraska really struggling that year and also LSU was not necessarily playing well for Coach Orgeron at the time....and we saw how badly OSU struggled at home last week. Interesting matchup here Sportsfans!

:popcorn:

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TCU jumped out at me right away.

W Virginia and Syracuse a possibility. Oklahoma State lost their QB on their first possession, probably for several weeks, and will have to go with a true freshman, which Gundy hates. Their OL was already a problem and they lost two more starters during the game, no report on how long they will be out. But after losing the two starters they were down to starting a walkon and a redshirt freshman,
 
Wowza! Mike Gundy does not fuck around much in this situation....in home games coming off a home win when his team did not cover the spread, they are 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS. (see pic 1) Add in the fact that they are not off a bye week or more than 7 days rest and they are a perfect 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS. (see pic 2)

Translation: in the past, whatever issues Mike Gundy's team had in the previous game gets fixed during the week leading up to their next game! Does it mean they can't lose Saturday? No, there is certainly a chance WVU can win but make no mistake the product OSU will put on the field this coming Saturday will be improved from what we saw last weekend.

:popcorn:

mgundy1.jpg

mgundy2.jpg
 
Frank Costanza said:
I wonder how that team has handled Gundy's deal and how much cohesion / chemistry there is. Even before Sanders went out with the ankle, Okie State looked disinterested and apathetic. In its first game of the season.
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Good point! SDQL does not factor in One News Network T-Shirts!
 
Feel like that program rarely lives up to the hype they generate. FWIW Illingsworth looked to be a catalyst to the offense when he came in last week and looked the best of the qbs that played. Prob the reason they came out with a win and is 4 star guy they are pretty excited about. Hope WV wins but he seems like a solid option so far for the limited tape.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Even before Sanders went out with the ankle, Okie State looked disinterested and apathetic.
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Wondered the same thing, FC. No one on the team seemed to care one way or the other. And Ok State has a new OC this year who didn't even try to throw the ball downfield--an Ok State trademark--until the fourth quarter. Even when Sanders was still in the game they had 19 runs, two short passes.

By the way, Duggan, the TCU returning starter at QB who has been out all fall has been cleared and is back practicing, although Patterson named another kid who has been filling in as the starter this week
 
So this is an example of why I do it. I get into this shit when I find something like this.....I did some queries about the UL-Monroe / UTEP game. Below are SDQL results for a home team coming off a season where they won 0-4 games less than they lost, playing an opponent that currently has at least 2 or more wins than them, and the opponent is coming off a season where they won at least 6-9 games less than they lost. It is active on UL-Monroe this Saturday.

Here is what baffles me....you will see 4 queries below in pics 1-4. In pic 1 I used -6 as the win/loss differential for the opponent and worked my way 1 by 1 down to a -9 differential. Notice the win percentages for the home team during these 4 queries. They start off at 46.2% (which is far from dominant by the way) for -6, then go to 42.9% for -7, then go to 40% for -8, and finally down to 36.4% for -9. That's not intuitive, right? One would think, or at least the public perception might be, that the worse the record the opponent had the year before then the better the chance of winning for the home team in this situation. But that is clearly not what reality says happens. The worse an opponent's record was from the year before, then the worse chance the home team has to win this game. Go figure!

UL-Monroe is also currently sitting at 74% public consensus at blankets.

:popcorn:

ulmon1.jpg

ulmon2.jpg

ulmon3.jpg

ulmon4.jpg
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Wondered the same thing, FC. No one on the team seemed to care one way or the other. And Ok State has a new OC this year who didn't even try to throw the ball downfield--an Ok State trademark--until the fourth quarter. Even when Sanders was still in the game they had 19 runs, two short passes.

By the way, Duggan, the TCU returning starter at QB who has been out all fall has been cleared and is back practicing, although Patterson named another kid who has been filling in as the starter this week
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Crazy at one time they recruited a top 50 or so player from LA at QB. Kid couldn’t crack the field and is now at UNLV
 
Mike Norvell is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in away games coming off a bye week. FSU got any chance vs. the Canes? As we all know, it is a heated rivalry!

:popcorn:

mnorvell.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
Mike Norvell is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in away games coming off a bye week. FSU got any chance vs. the Canes? As we all know, it is a heated rivalry!
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Interesting game and looking forward to it, lean FSU with the points. Do you still value a trend like that when Norvell won't be coaching in-person due to COVID? Sounds like they're planning on a remote setup... Maybe having a birds-eye view will be helpful though?
 
Squirrel said:
Interesting game and looking forward to it, lean FSU with the points. Do you still value a trend like that when Norvell won't be coaching in-person due to COVID? Sounds like they're planning on a remote setup... Maybe having a birds-eye view will be helpful though?
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The sample size is small but it is helpful knowing there is at least a small amount of evidence that Norvell preps his fairly well in the off week. I think the fact that this is a rivalry game and FSU has the revenge factor going for it both hold a bit more weight though and adds to the capping process. Stock is currently high with the Canes after their good showing last Saturday so possibility of bit of a letdown perhaps?? Or will the Canes be just as hyped for a rivalry game?
 
Regarding UTEP, this will be their 4th game and I thought they looked tired last week. It was Abilene's first game and you would think the game 1 rust vs game 3 team would tilt towards the team on game 3. That wasn't he case. I think UTEP benefited from +2 turnovers as well (one very questionable). Their top RB Hankins DNP but is supposed to be good here.

I would look for ULM to win but think the line is a little crazy.
 
I think I have whittled my 5 down to the following and will be doing 3, 4, & 5-teamer RRs with them:

Kentucky
Army
UTEP
USA
Cuse

Was thinking about dabbling somehow with Miss. St. and Mike Leach...maybe 1st Qtr or 1st Half but reading some player and coaches quotes from LSU makes me think they're simply reloading. Still it would not shock me too much if we see the Bulldogs in the lead at some point in that game. I did research some on FSU but most of my queries are coming back in favor of the home team....rivalry and all.

BOL Gents!
 
JROCK1966 said:
I think I have whittled my 5 down to the following and will be doing 3, 4, & 5-teamer RRs with them:

Kentucky
Army
UTEP
USA
Cuse

Was thinking about dabbling somehow with Miss. St. and Mike Leach...maybe 1st Qtr or 1st Half but reading some player and coaches quotes from LSU makes me think they're simply reloading. Still it would not shock me too much if we see the Bulldogs in the lead at some point in that game. I did research some on FSU but most of my queries are coming back in favor of the home team....rivalry and all.

BOL Gents!
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Any reason NCSt dropped off the list?
 
Well shoot...not off to a good start this week. UAB was dominant over USA last night. I still have 4 left though from my 1st parlay but I think I'll revisit MSU in my next one. I did a bit of research and this MSU QB KJ Costello had a really good year 2 years ago finishing 16th in the nation in passing efficiency at Stanford with a 155 rating. He threw 29 TDs vs. 11 Ints in 2018. So this guy is a pretty good QB. I also went thru MSU's recruiting rankings just to get a bit of an idea of their talent level and from 2017 - 2020 their team recruiting rankings were 27th, 25th, 23rd, and 26th. Also, at no time was Wazzou or Texas Tech rankings higher than MSUs so it could be safe to say this is the most talent Mike Leach has had to work with. Keep in mind what @s--k wrote a few days ago that away teams are doing very well!! LSU is no doubt reloading but with Joe Brady leaving they too have some coaching turnover so one might possibly expect some amount of settling in for them at least offensively. Read the MSU defensive preview from this page:

athlonsports.com

Mississippi State Football: 2020 Bulldogs Season Preview and Prediction

There’s a new sheriff in town in Starkville. Or in this case, a new pirate. Mississippi State is set for its first season under the leadership of Mike Leach, a
athlonsports.com athlonsports.com

Of course this is gambling and one has to weigh the potential return vs. the risk....and considering I've seen MSU anywhere from +500 to +650 ML odds for full game, +400 1st half, and +260 1st Qtr, there is a huge return vs. the risk!

What the hell! I'm at least putting the Bulldogs 1st Qtr & 1st Half in my next round-robin!!

Kentucky
Army
UTEP
Cuse
MSU 1st Qtr & 1st Half

BOLTA!!
 
1st Qtr not offered yet but I went ahead and played these....let's roll!!

3, 4, & 5-teamer RRs:

Syracuse +250
Kentucky +245
Army +415
UTEP +295
Mississippi State +415 for 1st Half
Risking $16.00 (16 parlays at $1.00) To Win $3,532.60

Syracuse +250
Mississippi State +550
Kentucky +245
Army +415
UTEP +295
Risking $16.00 (16 parlays at $1.00) To Win $4,332.56

BOLTA!!
 
Adding:

3, 4, & 5-teamer RR:

Syracuse +245
Kentucky +230
Army +415
UTEP +295
Mississippi State +275 for 1st Quarter
Risking $16.00 (16 parlays at $1.00) To Win $2,577.75

Can't wait for Saturday!!

:watchingsports:
 
I like uk but man are they one them super popular dogs that scare the crap out of me. Didn’t line open around +10? And now it looks like it close to dropping below freaking +7!!!! Sure wish I woulda got on early but now not sure I want to take the bad number? I suppose the one good thing I’ll say if it actually falls under 7 that might say something! Books def don’t seemed thrilled with all the UK money they appear to be taking!
 
This game tomorrow reminds me a lot of the game at Florida 2 years ago when we broke the streak...no, there is no streak to break in this game but UK does have a similar chip on their shoulders. I've read a lot from coaches and they were miffed Kentucky did not get more recognition in the pre-season....but all us Kentucky fans get it...we're still Kentucky Football in a lot of the nation's eyes. Still, this team is on a mission to prove they are no fluke. To be honest, I am not seeing a win at Auburn as an "upset" at all. I am expecting us to win. This is not the Kentucky football team of old....it is seriously the most talented Ky team in my lifetime. We are deep at every position except for maybe inside LB. We did lose LB Chris Oats to a medical issue in the offseason and he will be missed. But we have depth there.

I was watching Eddie Gran and he said last week they have the entire offensive playbook installed quicker than ever since he has been there and that's a credit to the experience returning. Terry Wilson has been out a lot last season but I expect him to be able to throw the ball just enough to keep Auburn's D honest. From all accounts he is back in shape and ready to roll. But early in the season Gran has always leaned on his veterans and this year that means he'll run the ball a lot....Kentucky will lean on their OLine and returning RBs to run the ball down Auburn's throat. It's going to be good ole fashioned smash mouth football.

One thing we missed last year on D was Josh Allen rushing the passer. With the depth at LB, now Josh Pascal has been able to return to the DE position and I look for him to be the difference-maker and force QBs to make quick early decisions or get sacked....we'll see. I will say this though...the one concern is the tempo AU might play with. Va Tech had some success in our bowl game last year when they went up-tempo. I actually posted the question on a Ky board asking if the D had fixed it but no one wanted to acknowledge it. They simply arrogantly shrugged it off....I'm not that much of a kool-aid drinker. If AU gets on a roll offensively and quickens the pace then they might do some damage. Hopefully though Ky's coaches have had time prep for that.

GO BIG BLUE!!
 
I want to believe you but think you wrong bout rest of country dismissing ya’ll cause sure seems like the whole freaking world betting UK. I’d be much more comfy if everyone was saying same ol uk football instead of talking bout the all Americans on the oline and the fact they might actually have a passing threat this year.
 
How good is ya’ll passing threat is my biggest question? I know he can run but they had thar last year! I’m sure he can throw better than the wr they had playing qb but can he be accurate down the field?
 
2daBank said:
How good is ya’ll passing threat is my biggest question? I know he can run but they had thar last year! I’m sure he can throw better than the wr they had playing qb but can he be accurate down the field?
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Truth is they really didn't pass down the field much two years ago when he had his good passers rating. Wilson's decent passer's rating, IMO, was a result of a lot of short throws and screens. We simply didn't have much of a WR threat with the exception of Lynn Bowden and by the time mid-season rolled around all the opponents keyed on him. From reports I've read though, the TE and RBs are involved in the passing game and we've had some other WRs step up besides Josh Ali....DeMarcus Harris and Bryce Oliver are a couple names to watch. The thing is, like I said earlier, Ky will lean on the run game....I've seen enough of Eddie Gran to know offensive newbies don't see the field in games 1 and 2. He leans on the vets and that means he's going to use Rose, Rodriguez, and Smoke at RB....look for Rose to be used to catch passes out of the backfield prolly before any WR touches the ball. That would not surprise me.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Truth is they really didn't pass down the field much two years ago when he had his good passers rating. Wilson's decent passer's rating, IMO, was a result of a lot of short throws and screens. We simply didn't have much of a WR threat with the exception of Lynn Bowden and by the time mid-season rolled around all the opponents keyed on him. From reports I've read though, the TE and RBs are involved in the passing game and we've had some other WRs step up besides Josh Ali....DeMarcus Harris and Bryce Oliver are a couple names to watch. The thing is, like I said earlier, Ky will lean on the run game....I've seen enough of Eddie Gran to know offensive newbies don't see the field in games 1 and 2. He leans on the vets and that means he's going to use Rose, Rodriguez, and Smoke at RB....look for Rose to be used to catch passes out of the backfield prolly before any WR touches the ball. That would not surprise me.
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I know auburn lost some up front, so they not just reload on the d line? I thought they always had studs up front but most seem to think Uk should win up front.
 
Honestly wish I woulda just bet uk when I saw it at 1st of week, I liked it but waited like a dummy so now line lost ton of value and all the love getting in my head!
 
2daBank said:
I know auburn lost some up front, so they not just reload on the d line? I thought they always had studs up front but most seem to think Uk should win up front.
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Can't remember where I read it but as far as retuning grades on Off Linemen, 3 of the top 8 in the nation returning from last year are on our team. So yeah, our OLine is legit.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Truth is they really didn't pass down the field much two years ago when he had his good passers rating. Wilson's decent passer's rating, IMO, was a result of a lot of short throws and screens. We simply didn't have much of a WR threat with the exception of Lynn Bowden and by the time mid-season rolled around all the opponents keyed on him. From reports I've read though, the TE and RBs are involved in the passing game and we've had some other WRs step up besides Josh Ali....DeMarcus Harris and Bryce Oliver are a couple names to watch. The thing is, like I said earlier, Ky will lean on the run game....I've seen enough of Eddie Gran to know offensive newbies don't see the field in games 1 and 2. He leans on the vets and that means he's going to use Rose, Rodriguez, and Smoke at RB....look for Rose to be used to catch passes out of the backfield prolly before any WR touches the ball. That would not surprise me.
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Plus we had Benny Snell.

:popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
What about Troy @ BYU....any chance there for the Trojans?

:popcorn:
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If they get decent QB play I would say yes. I wasn't exactly impressed with him last week. Just seems like a back up guy who has been elevated from lack of having better options. He's still young so maybe he will grow into the position. We've come to expect some pretty good things out of the Troy QB position so this is a drop off. And Troy doesn't look especially strong at the LOS, which vs BYU is a concern. With all that said, I believe they can compete with BYU. Troy has talent and pedigree of winning their players and program plays to a standard. Certainly like them with the points. I won't ML them, but if it falls right they could win.
 
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