Week 4 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
For a somewhat boring weekend of football and the matchup before the week started
We had a few ML Dog Winners this week and some great games.

Week 3 Winners
Kansas 1041
Kansas St
West Virginia
Temple
E Mich
Air Force
BYU
Arizona St
Arizona
Liberty
So Miss
Citadel upset GT (Nice call @Maineroad )
And thanks to @JROCK1966 for posting your trends.

Thanks to all who put their 2 cents in, in the thread.

3 Weeks in the books. Man this goes by fast!
Let’s keep this train rolling

Alright who looks good this week.......
 
Man I don't know. Not much jumping out at me.

I would say FIU maybe, but they have been MIA so far this year.

Air Force is generally good as away dog ATS.

ULL is really playing well, but Ohio really needs this going into their bye.

Western Michigan? Syracuse hasn't played well in games they were supposed to, and didn't play well in a game they weren't supposed to. Think they have some advantages on paper, but they must be pretty deflated at this point. Babers needs to get them off the mat. WM isn't bad.

Colorado seems like one I might take a chance on. ASU D is pretty solid, but can't forget what I saw out of ASU O vs the likes of Kent and Sacramento St...and the O output vs MSU was pretty bad. That was MSU D, so understandable. Still this Devils O is lacking alot of something so far this season. Been a pretty competitive series the last 2.

Kentucky appears to be about equal to Miss St, probably think UK might be better top to bottom actually. Tough game to get up from for UK. Would like this better had MSU won last week. MSU's last home game til mid Oct and fact this is revenge for Bulldogs....UK better team, MSU more intangibles makes me nervous on risking it.

South Carolina I would think makes this game competitive, x factor being Hilinski's first road game. Mizzou has had it easy the last 2 weeks.

Bowling Green seems like a decent ROI - I mean neither of these teams are exactly good although Kent is in a better place being year 2 of their coaching staff and BG is still adapting to theirs. Could be a game BG finds a way to lose. Kennesaw is pretty good I know, but Kent probably should've lost to them.

Might this finally be the year SMU ends the Iron Skillet drought? Not great odds and a really low spread historically. This line hasn't been below 3 scores since the 2011 OT game (SMU +13 won by 7 in OT). Then TCU won by 8 in 2012. Since then the avg margin of victory is 31 for Frogs. I ML'd SMU in this game 2 years ago with what I thought was SMU's best team in years. It was and they still lost by 20. It was close 1st H. Now this SMU team feels like the best it's been in years. TCU running game though...can Ponies stand up to it? If so not sure TCU QBs good enough to win it.

Louisville would seem like a reasonable shot. Worry about their run D. Noles did play pretty well at Virginia all things considered. Not sure who will be QB this week for Ville. Think Cunningham could've returned last week if they needed him, but they were up 3 scores so they went with the frosh. Don't know Pass' status. We may not know until game time. Satterfield > Taggert. All FSU has done so far is try and find ways to lose games. Why will it be different this week?

Looks strange to see Utah St road fav at SD St.
 
s--k said:
ULL is really playing well, but Ohio really needs this going into their bye.
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They really are. I know four things: Perfect weather for this one. There's a 35-year age discrepancy between the two head coaches. MAC is typically a stronger conference than the Sun Belt. I'm looking forward to watching every snap of this game.
 
U.H., Auburn, USC & Kentucky - may take them all

Air Force & Colorado are contenders too
 
Patterson has always had a special disinterest / dislike of SMU. I can't see them losing, He saw enough of Buechele, going 2-0 against Texas in games he started, to know that if you pressure him, he unravels. Expect to see a lot of that.
 
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I like CU. Asu starting a 17 yo at left tackle this game too. I think CU will put up points and asu's offense has been bad. Manny Wilkins was very important to that team and losing the stud wr is allowing teams to load up the box.
 
Delton got yanked last week after a couple of drives and 0/4 start. No clue how Gary thought he was the answer at QB.

Stanford is a huge price this week at home. I'm still reeling from that Oregon choke job last year against Tree.
 
Two Utes said:
I like CU. Asu starting a 17 yo at left tackle this game too. I think CU will put up points and asu's offense has been bad. Manny Wilkins was very important to that team and losing the stud wr is allowing teams to load up the box.
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For some reason I am enamored with both CSU & CO this year in my wagering
 
M.W. said:
Agree. Also like SDSU and perhaps S Caro and Aub.
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I mentioned somewhere that AU has appeared to be holding back offensively. This will be the game they open the playbook. We'll see what Nix has with some game action under his belt.

Jimbo will have some stuff dialed up for this game though. Really is a toss up of current 2nd tier SECw teams.

USCe feels like a trap to me. Watched a lot of the cocky game last week. Came away impressed with the young QB. The line has been pretty stagnant. Something is just giving me a bad vibe. I suppose if it hits 10 again, I'll bite.

I really liked what I saw out of USU against Wake. Honestly, haven't seen SDSU yet. Usually scheme well. No opinion there.
 
Houston +5 & ML....they played 2 ranked teams and 1 cupcake. Those 2 ranked teams might win their conference and perhaps 1 will be in the playoffs. Tulane played FIU, Auburn and Missouri St. LY, QB King suffered an knee injury to the Green Waves and lost big time.

Kansas +4 & ML.....who the hell is WVU to be laying pts OTR in the conference? Mad Hatter has his players believing and playing at a high level.

Louisville +6.5 & ML....I'm sure Cardinals have this game circled. Ly they've dominated FSU, but you can't win turning the ball over 5x. They were winning the game going into the 4th. The last 3 games have been close with motorcycle man as the HC. I like what they're doing this year and can move the ball.
 
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spooks said:
Houston +5 & ML....they played 2 ranked teams and 1 cupcake. Those 2 ranked teams might win their conference and perhaps 1 will be in the playoffs. Tulane played FIU, Auburn and Missouri St. LY, QB King suffered an knee injury to the Green Waves and lost big time.

Kansas +4 & ML.....who the hell is WVU to be laying pts OTR in the conference? Mad Hatter has his players believing and playing at a high level.

Louisville +6.5 & ML....I'm sure Cardinals have this game circled. Ly they've dominated FSU, but you can't win turning the ball over 5x. They were winning the game going into the 4th. The last 3 games have been close with motorcycle man as the HC. I like what they're doing this year and can move the ball.
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Solid stuff spooks.
 
spooks said:
Kansas +4 & ML.....who the hell is WVU to be laying pts OTR in the conference? Mad Hatter has his players believing and playing at a high level.
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I was waiting to play the jayhawks, thinking Les would get a game out of them. No idea it would be last week.
 
WMU@Cuse: granted there's the difference between the ACC vs. the MAC, but if you can get over that there are some pretty good statistical differences favoring the dog in this matchup. Cuse is averaging 85ypg more in total defense compared to WMU. WMU has a 180ypg advantage in total offense. Both teams have positive turnover margins. When I plug in these ranges into my query I come up with a 1-11 SU record for the home team. The lone win was a -27.5 fav.

cuse-wmu.jpg
 
Coastal Carolina @ UMass: Coastal has some serious statistical advantages compared to UMass. They give up 300ypg less than UMass and gain 100ypg more than UMass. So when I entered these numbers into my queries I was totally expecting a dominate record for Coastal. That was far from the case. I put in some ranges and got 5-4 SU for the home team. I added last year's previous matchup loss for UMass and got 1-2 SU. Now that might not seem like much but consider the lone win was a 15.5 pt dog. UMass is 0-3 and prolly looking forward to their first win and they have some double revenge going on in this game vs. Coastal it makes me think the home team here is worthy of some consideration.

umass2.jpg

umass1.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
WMU@Cuse: granted there's the difference between the ACC vs. the MAC, but if you can get over that there are some pretty good statistical differences favoring the dog in this matchup. Cuse is averaging 85ypg more in total defense compared to WMU. WMU has a 180ypg advantage in total offense. Both teams have positive turnover margins. When I plug in these ranges into my query I come up with a 1-11 SU record for the home team. The lone win was a -27.5 fav.

View attachment 43010
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Dont know that there is much difference in the leagues. However. Curse got shut down by Clemson. Fair to say that game skews stats.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Coastal Carolina @ UMass: Coastal has some serious statistical advantages compared to UMass. They give up 300ypg less than UMass and gain 100ypg more than UMass. So when I entered these numbers into my queries I was totally expecting a dominate record for Coastal. That was far from the case. I put in some ranges and got 5-4 SU for the home team. I added last year's previous matchup loss for UMass and got 1-2 SU. Now that might not seem like much but consider the lone win was a 15.5 pt dog. UMass is 0-3 and prolly looking forward to their first win and they have some double revenge going on in this game vs. Coastal it makes me think the home team here is worthy of some consideration.

View attachment 43012

View attachment 43011
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This isn't something I wanted to say publicly until now, but I was wondering if this is a bridge too far for Coastal Carolina to be a 3 score road fav even vs UMass. Now full disclosure, I don't fear ugly dogs although they take my money more often than not. I know alot of our friends were on Charlotte vs UMass, but Charlotte is a pretty decent team....Southern ILL? Well I have nothing. Coastal Carolina should win this game. More power to those that just blindly roll against UMass, I can't do it. CC was -28 last year at Campbell and crushed them...and just won by 39 laying 27 vs Norfolk. We're talking ML dogs here, UMass simply can't be a wise investment can they?
 
s--k said:
This isn't something I wanted to say publicly until now, but I was wondering if this is a bridge too far for Coastal Carolina to be a 3 score road fav even vs UMass. Now full disclosure, I don't fear ugly dogs although they take my money more often than not. I know alot of our friends were on Charlotte vs UMass, but Charlotte is a pretty decent team....Southern ILL? Well I have nothing. Coastal Carolina should win this game. More power to those that just blindly roll against UMass, I can't do it. CC was -28 last year at Campbell and crushed them...and just won by 39 laying 27 vs Norfolk. We're talking ML dogs here, UMass simply can't be a wise investment can they?
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We once had a discussion about having to being somewhat of a contrarian when trying to pick dogs. What I find contrarian about this trend is that Coastal has significant advantages but the 5-4 SU results do not back up those advantages....this record should have been 8-1 or 9-0 SU. And it has happened before as the win by the 15.5 pt dog proves. I was just throwing some trends out there that I thought looked like were not necessarily, oh I don't know, not necessarily what one would expect??
 
Bowling Green @ Kent State: Unless there is some sort of critical player injury or something like that, BG is going to make my card for sure. I did my normal queries comparing average total defense, average total offense, & turnover margin (see pic 1) and the SU record for the home team is 3-27. Yes I said 3 wins and 27 losses!! This is the 4th game in this comparison that the home team has been a favorite and the HF record is still 1-2. The lone win was a -3.5 win by Purdue looks like but a -25pt fav lost with this trend as well!! In pic 2, I just added weeks 3-5 to the query and it came back 0-9 SU for the home team. The home team in this situation has never won in weeks 3, 4, or 5. Good luck in what you decide Gents!

kstate-bg1.jpg

kstate-bg.jpg
 
Last week my trend went 3-1 ATS with Ohio, SMiss, and FSU covering. ECU got shredded. It was only 1-3 SU however as SMiss was the lone winner. This brings the SU record to 29-26 and ATS record to 40-14-1 since the 2017 season. Looks like there is only one play this week with my trend. Once again, it is on away dogs with worse defense and both teams have negative turnover margins. The play is on New Mexico State +4. BOLTA!!

mytrend.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
Bowling Green @ Kent State: Unless there is some sort of critical player injury or something like that, BG is going to make my card for sure. I did my normal queries comparing average total defense, average total offense, & turnover margin (see pic 1) and the SU record for the home team is 3-27. Yes I said 3 wins and 27 losses!! This is the 4th game in this comparison that the home team has been a favorite and the HF record is still 1-2. The lone win was a -3.5 win by Purdue looks like but a -25pt fav lost with this trend as well!! In pic 2, I just added weeks 3-5 to the query and it came back 0-9 SU for the home team. The home team in this situation has never won in weeks 3, 4, or 5. Good luck in what you decide Gents!

View attachment 43032

View attachment 43033
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BG definitely has a shot. No injuries I'm aware of. Last week was RB Clair's first game back after missing week 2 with injury and he didn't perform great, but could be LT's D. His play making ability is critical anytime BG has the ball. The O had some plays available, but a bust here or there and they can't hit them. The D played better than a 35-7 score might imply (one of LT's TDs was a pick-six). BG D did have 5 sacks (they had 15 all of last year), they blitz alot now. BG O was 1 of 4 scoring in Red Zone and were SOD two other times in LT territory. BG isn't good. Kent isn't exactly good either. Kent deserves to be moderate favorite, but no reason why BG can't win this game. Kent has only beaten ONE FBS program each of the last 2 years (one of which was BG last year by 7).
 
bones said:
For some reason I am enamored with both CSU & CO this year in my wagering
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Colorado State is one I need to get into more myself. +270 for a home dog that has played well at times vs Colorado and Arkansas. On the other side, Toledo has a good history as away favorite. New QB for Rams obviously.

Here is some background on O'Brien.
www.coloradoan.com

Nebraska transfer Patrick O'Brien ready to run Colorado State football's offense

Four-star prospect coming out of high school takes control of one of the most-productive offense's in the country following injury to Collin Hill
www.coloradoan.com www.coloradoan.com
 
Houston would have been my favorite ML dog of 4.5 or more (used 4 as the cutoff for obviously they could win point) for the week but some more ...

South Alabama - Capable of going on the road and competing with Nebraska. Why couldn't they go on the road and compete with UAB?

Kentucky - Potentially the better team????
 
Played these two....3, 4, & 5 teamer RRs. Might add another one tomorra depending on how FIU does...we'll see. I still have some lunch money leftover to spend on my vices this weekend!!

:beerdrink:

parlayfri.jpgparlayfri2.jpg
 
Two Utes said:
I like CU. Asu starting a 17 yo at left tackle this game too. I think CU will put up points and asu's offense has been bad. Manny Wilkins was very important to that team and losing the stud wr is allowing teams to load up the box.
Click to expand...

Seems like good as spot you can get to fade asu.
 
booksbestfriend said:
I mentioned somewhere that AU has appeared to be holding back offensively. This will be the game they open the playbook. We'll see what Nix has with some game action under his belt.

Jimbo will have some stuff dialed up for this game though. Really is a toss up of current 2nd tier SECw teams.

USCe feels like a trap to me. Watched a lot of the cocky game last week. Came away impressed with the young QB. The line has been pretty stagnant. Something is just giving me a bad vibe. I suppose if it hits 10 again, I'll bite.

I really liked what I saw out of USU against Wake. Honestly, haven't seen SDSU yet. Usually scheme well. No opinion there.
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I don’t like mizzou at all this year, for all the hype they havnt looked that great to me, yes they looked fine last 2 weeks but the comp wasn’t impressive. Bryant been fine but the run game as a whole hasn’t impressed me and the defense really bothered me against wyo, no way to say if it improved last week against a high school team. Just hate the spot for scary, suppose could be a momentum builder but feel like that game prob took a lot out of them.
 
spooks said:
Houston +5 & ML....they played 2 ranked teams and 1 cupcake. Those 2 ranked teams might win their conference and perhaps 1 will be in the playoffs. Tulane played FIU, Auburn and Missouri St. LY, QB King suffered an knee injury to the Green Waves and lost big time.

Kansas +4 & ML.....who the hell is WVU to be laying pts OTR in the conference? Mad Hatter has his players believing and playing at a high level.

Louisville +6.5 & ML....I'm sure Cardinals have this game circled. Ly they've dominated FSU, but you can't win turning the ball over 5x. They were winning the game going into the 4th. The last 3 games have been close with motorcycle man as the HC. I like what they're doing this year and can move the ball.
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I like these as well. Tough break w houston man, they had no business losing, I hate that coach reason I stayed away.
 
Would it be better to wait on ville to halftime is my only question there? Obviously would suck to wait and they play a strong 1st half but thus far FSU glaring coaching weakness has really showed up after he makes halftime “adjustments” lol.
 
2daBank said:
Would it be better to wait on ville to halftime is my only question there? Obviously would suck to wait and they play a strong 1st half but thus far FSU glaring coaching weakness has really showed up after he makes halftime “adjustments” lol.
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What is a halftime adjustment?- Willie T
 
2daBank said:
Would it be better to wait on ville to halftime is my only question there? Obviously would suck to wait and they play a strong 1st half but thus far FSU glaring coaching weakness has really showed up after he makes halftime “adjustments” lol.
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Automatic = Noles 1H, Ville 2H
 
South Alabama - Capable of going on the road and competing with Nebraska. Why couldn't they go on the road and compete with UAB?
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I got mud on my face for backing USA ML last week. No doubt, wrong team to do it against (Memphis), but man oh man were they BADDDDD. Maybe they can get pissed about that and play better vs a team more to their equal in talent. Is Minter good to go?
 
WTF...is up with these teams! They get up for the 1st half, then decide to blow Bubbles in the parking lot of the 2nd half...jeeez!
 
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