Week 4 in the FCS

Big Sky is 5-1 ATS vs the MWC.

ATS Wins:
PSU - Haw
UNC - CSU
Sac St - UNR
ISU - UNM
ISU - UNLV

ATS Loss:
EW - Boise

4 of those 5 covers the Big Sky team was in it to win it, but didn't and lost close games. San Jose has been bet up from -9.5 to 14.5 and down to 13.5. Can't speak to San Jose, would assume they will pass a lot and Idaho pass D is their worst attribute. Offensively, if Vandals bring their best, which is traditional run and QB run, would seem like they might be able to hang around? Thoughts on San Jose State football?
 
s--k said:
Big Sky is 5-1 ATS vs the MWC.

ATS Wins:
PSU - Haw
UNC - CSU
Sac St - UNR
ISU - UNM
ISU - UNLV

ATS Loss:
EW - Boise

4 of those 5 covers the Big Sky team was in it to win it, but didn't and lost close games. San Jose has been bet up from -9.5 to 14.5 and down to 13.5. Can't speak to San Jose, would assume they will pass a lot and Idaho pass D is their worst attribute. Offensively, if Vandals bring their best, which is traditional run and QB run, would seem like they might be able to hang around? Thoughts on San Jose State football?
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SJSU is a weird one as this will be one dimensional vs one dimensional as SJSU is all about the pass while Idaho is all about the run.

If Idaho can get a couple of takeaways, they have a shot to win straight up, as SJSU won’t blow them out as long as Idaho sticks to what they do best.

SJSU gave the ball away a few times in their loss to CMU and their offense isn’t what I would call explosive, so if Idaho can hang around like they vs WSU, they will have a shot.

I might give Idaho a shot at a juiced 14.5 when/if it comes out Saturday morning at BM.

Thoughts?
 
Surprised to see the Brown 6-1 record vs Georgetown.

2005...........Washington, D.C..............W, 34-3 (Brown finished 9-1, GT 4-7)
2006........... Providence, R.I..............W, 34-21 (Brown finished 3-7, GT 2-9)
2012...........Washington, D.C............W, 37-10 (Brown finished 7-3, GT 5-6)
2013........... Providence, R.I................W, 45-7 (Brown finished 6-4, GT 2-9)
2014...........Washington, D.C...............L, 3-17 (Brown finished 5-5, GT 3-8)
2018........... Providence, R.I................W, 35-7 (Brown finished 1-9, GT 5-6)
2024...........Washington, D.C............W, 26-14 (Brown finished 3-7, GT 5-6)

Might be why Georgetown has been bet down from -4.5, was -1.5 and now back up to -2.5.

Brown has won 3 straight openers, GT last year as a road fav and Bryant twice.

Brown lost a 3 year starting QB who is top 5 in a few career passing categories. Back up James Murphy played in 3 games last year. Brown usually has good O under HC Perry and they have a Fr POY in RB Childs. But OL and WR are weaker units, plus figure to be down a notch at QB. The D is routinely bad, last in the Ivy in PPG and YPG allowed.

GT's O is mostly the same as it was last year and they outgained Brown 402-372 (5.4-4.8), Brown won 26-14 largely because GT couldn't sustain their drives, in the 2H they ended 4 in Brown terr (3 SOD and INT). Neither team could run, GT lost TO margin -2.

This year, Brown still has some CBs to matchup well vs GT's passing game, but GT is really best when they can run and Brown is replacing all 4 DL starters including a DT who was 2nd Tm Ivy and another DT who transferred to BC, their #1 tkl'r at LB and both their starting S who were among the team's top tkl'rs. GT D is never good themselves, but the Brown OL is also replacing 4 starters and has a lot of newness to it.

Thinking might be an opportunity for Georgetown to get this win with some of their experience on O compared to the Brown team they are going against, less experienced less key guys coming back. Hoyas did not look good in the 1H vs Lafayette, a 90y fum ret TD saved them from going down 7-28 and instead it was 14-21 and they actually were able to tie it by HT 21-21 and then lead in the 24-21 3Q before losing by 5, but it didn't really feel like GT was as good as Lafayette throughout the game. Lafayette is pretty good, which we saw again tonight. Don't think Brown is nearly that good at all.
 
carolinablue said:
SJSU is a weird one as this will be one dimensional vs one dimensional as SJSU is all about the pass while Idaho is all about the run.

If Idaho can get a couple of takeaways, they have a shot to win straight up, as SJSU won’t blow them out as long as Idaho sticks to what they do best.

SJSU gave the ball away a few times in their loss to CMU and their offense isn’t what I would call explosive, so if Idaho can hang around like they vs WSU, they will have a shot.

I might give Idaho a shot at a juiced 14.5 when/if it comes out Saturday morning at BM.

Thoughts?
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Different teams and coaches and players, but Idaho has competed well vs FBS, 6-1 ATS last 3 seasons plus 1 game this year. Their only spread loss would be the 14 pt loss at Cal, but it depends what spread is used because they covered some of the early numbers, but not the closing numbers.

Idaho's strength is definitely running and I would assume that would be their game plan. They ran it 45x on Wazzou and only passed 20x and they have a really good running QB. Wood played San Jose last year when he was at Fresno but as the gadget QB only ran 3x for 17y. It's always difficult for me not knowing or even having a guess on what the FBS team is like. Hearing they are not explosive passing O is good. If they are dink and dunk most of the time that should be something the Vandals can deal with.
 
s--k said:
Different teams and coaches and players, but Idaho has competed well vs FBS, 6-1 ATS last 3 seasons plus 1 game this year. Their only spread loss would be the 14 pt loss at Cal, but it depends what spread is used because they covered some of the early numbers, but not the closing numbers.

Idaho's strength is definitely running and I would assume that would be their game plan. They ran it 45x on Wazzou and only passed 20x and they have a really good running QB. Wood played San Jose last year when he was at Fresno but as the gadget QB only ran 3x for 17y. It's always difficult for me not knowing or even having a guess on what the FBS team is like. Hearing they are not explosive passing O is good. If they are dink and dunk most of the time that should be something the Vandals can deal with.
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It’s weird because this line has had very similar movement to the WSU line so not sure what to make of that. Will see where it opens at BM tomorrow as FD doesn’t have alts on that one and I would like 14.5.
 
I tried to get a feel for this Dartmouth team. QB should be good, Saunier was really good last year when called upon. He might end up being an upgrade and one of their better QBs they've had the last few years. Guess I like their potential on O. Was really surprised to see that they didn't play alot of DL just based on stats. 3-3-5, lose top 4 and the only guys back with any stats are 2 who combined for a total of 4 tkl! Both their DEs were 1st Tm Ivy and had a HM DT. So a huge unknown on their DL. Top 3 LBs gone, but all the reserves are back who they did play a lot. Their best CB transferred to Stanford, but they appear to be ok at DB. It's fun to try and think about what these teams will look like before they play, but I don't think I can pick the UNH-Dartmouth game at all.
 
carolinablue said:
It’s weird because this line has had very similar movement to the WSU line so not sure what to make of that. Will see where it opens at BM tomorrow as FD doesn’t have alts on that one and I would like 14.5.
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As I recall, the Idaho-Wazzou game did drop after it opened week of game, but once it started going up it just kept going.

What were the expectations for San Jose this year?
 
Ok, going to bed and will be ready for Dll games in about 7 hours!
 
Think I have to take some Stony Brook at Lindenwood. Basically a pick'em. Massey and Sagarin did favor Lindenwood ever so slightly, not sure that is correct. S&P+ has SB winning a close one which is what I would assume. I do talk about home openers and I think it can be a thing for teams that have played 2-3 games on the road, Lindenwood experienced the difficulty of that at Charelston Southern last week as CSU had lots of juice and actually got up 21-0 on them. So Stony Brook will have to overcome that, which I think they can. But just looking at the SB run game vs LW run D there is going to be a huge advantage in what SB wants to do and is best at and what LW is bad at, LW is bad at anything related to D, but especially run D. St Thomas ran for 275 (6.3), App St 209 (6.3) and CSU 153 (4.6). The 153 by CSU might not sound like a lot but that is more yards than they ran for in their first 2 games combined (albeit vs Vandy and Coastal Caro). And 153 would've been their third highest rush output in 2024. To allow CSU to put up 442 ttl yards (6.7) confirms everything we thought we knew about the LW D, which also was not good last year.

LW O can be a problem when QB Glantz and Hall get going, which Hall or any of their RBs has yet to get going this year.

Acknowledge the fact that LW could win if SB turns it over vs them (Zellous 'only' 2 INTs so far), but everytime I scroll through the lines I ask myself, why haven't I bet SB yet? SB O has accumulated 441 and 403 ttl yards vs FCS this year. Going to be tough for LW D and SB D will probably be stressed, but basically a pick'em (-118 ML), I will take my chances with the stronger team. Don't turn it over Zellous!
 
Going to be weird watching Cornell without Wang. He has been an off the bench or starting QB for as long as I have been watching FCS (2021 I started watching Ivy League first). Had his best season as a Sr, a Cornell QB actually leading the Ivy in several passing categories, plus his running. Harvard QB Craig gets the headlines, but Wang was probably the best QB in the Ivy last year. Will be tough to replace. Two new QBs stepping in have attempted 1 career pass in a game. Not sure if they are runners or not. OL should be pretty good as far as Cornell OLs go lately and their RBs. I think that #1 WR Musugnu is out this year, or retired, not sure. But they do get the electric Kiser back who missed last year. D will likely be worrisome for them, especially run D - and Cornell hasn't been good on D anyway. See Banbury being a complete stud at William & Mary right now after transferring out, they will miss having a guy like that.

Can I bet Albany? 0-3, wow. Knew they didn't look especially good, but the schedule was so soft after Iowa. But blew the late lead after the weather delay vs DSU and then lose at home to New Haven who we have seen so far this year is not good either. Lots of empty yards for Albany last week with drives ending in turnovers, or SOD or missed FGs (5 such drives ending in NH territory with 0 pts).

Albany was bad last year too and did beat what I assume is a better Cornell team 31-10 on the road as a 2pt dog (498-310 ttl yard edge). Feel like Albany has to be pretty desperate to win at home with CAA opener at UNH next week. Probably have to take the Danes here.

- I asked FD to add Cornell to my game list as this game was not listed when it opened. I had to ask them to add Monmouth and Cornell so far this year, I think everyone else has shown up for me other than New Haven who they previously said they weren't lining, yet everyone else is.
 
This time last week I was already done picking Dll games and now MB hasn't even put any up yet.
 
s--k said:
This time last week I was already done picking Dll games and now MB hasn't even put any up yet.
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They were up super early last week. Not looking good for today. They already locked a few fcs games. Some of those were only up 15 mins or so.
 
s--k said:
As I recall, the Idaho-Wazzou game did drop after it opened week of game, but once it started going up it just kept going.

What were the expectations for San Jose this year?
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This one also dropped a point before going up about 6 or so which is what had me intrigued. I actually had Wash St in the other one and thought I had a solid play with so much line value but as soon as I saw this line open I said not again haha
 
s--k said:
As I recall, the Idaho-Wazzou game did drop after it opened week of game, but once it started going up it just kept going.

What were the expectations for San Jose this year?
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Expectations wise I think 6-6 type team like they tend to be, probably 3rd quartile across all fbs. Better than where I would have put WSU but I think 10.5 would be a solid line here.
 
carolinablue said:
That brings a tear to my eye as I’m only 45-30 YTD and only have 18 so far this week. Headed out of the country for a few weeks so will miss the next two.
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So what I have been doing since 2023 is basically just betting the shit out of everything and I bet all day Saturday. I don't want to make a big deal out of records because I don't post like that, but last Saturday 78-58, week 2 71-50 and week 1 170-104. Yes, I had 274 bets week 1 (Thurs-Sat)! That includes sides, total, ML, teaser, 1H, 1Q, live, all of it - and it is almost exclusively FCS involved games. The amounts range from $10 to a few hundred per play, so pretty wide range, but most of the bets fit into the typical .5 to 1 unit variety. The uneven amounts can at times make the record deceiving as week 0 it was 22-11, but I lost money due to UIW ML going down.
 
s--k said:
So what I have been doing since 2023 is basically just betting the shit out of everything and I bet all day Saturday. I don't want to make a big deal out of records because I don't post like that, but last Saturday 78-58, week 2 71-50 and week 1 170-104. Yes, I had 274 bets week 1 (Thurs-Sat)! That includes sides, total, ML, teaser, 1H, 1Q, live, all of it - and it is almost exclusively FCS involved games. The amounts range from $10 to a few hundred per play, so pretty wide range, but most of the bets fit into the typical .5 to 1 unit variety. The uneven amounts can at times make the record deceiving as week 0 it was 22-11, but I lost money due to UIW ML going down.
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That’s cool man as I always enjoy hearing different paths to profit, as I’m straight one unit per play all day every day which keeps me from jotting everything I may have interest in, but keeps me disciplined and focused for sure. I do one deposit at the start of the season then basically play through from there, taking withdrawals along the way at FD and running through my rollover at BM as that usually takes a while since I lean more towards FD because BM is so slow these days.
 
I definitely respect your discipline. my philosophy is honestly, I am not good enough to isolate just a few plays that I think are most likely to win, crossing off the others. I am better at general knowledge than specifics and I think people who are good as specifics and details and identifying value on spreads are good at playing 10 games a week and trying to hit a good %. I am better at knowing a little bit about everyone and therefore think I can play a ton of games with some degree of knowing what to expect and what should happen in all of them and it pans out over the course of the high volume.
 
MB has 3 1:00 Dll games up but they are locked. Shaw at Lincoln (Pa). Anderson at Mars Hill and Wayne St (Ne) at Minn Morehead. So we're going to get something...
 
s--k said:
MB has 3 1:00 Dll games up but they are locked. Shaw at Lincoln (Ca). Anderson at Mars Hill and Wayne St (Ne) at Minn Morehead. So we're going to get something...
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I was able to get Moorehead before it locked. Those were up for literally 2 mins.
 
CPA-hole said:
I was able to get Moorehead before it locked. Those were up for literally 2 mins.
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Your action locked them! haha. Man, I know the disappointment you had last year for the Dll playoffs, it's got to be tough to spend the time knowing the teams and handicapping not knowing what if anything you will actually be able to play.
 
Southern Connecticut has won 4 of last 5 vs AIC. Home opener for the Owls. They are the better team? Looks like they had some O in the loss to Pace atleast
 
s--k said:
Southern Connecticut has won 4 of last 5 vs AIC. Home opener for the Owls. They are the better team? Looks like they had some O in the loss to Pace atleast
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Yeah. Of course they actually lined this game. A couple of conferences I'm not as in tuned with. This is one of them.
 
Northern Michigan hasn't won in forever. Hard to endorse them winning today at +360 but they have a pulse so far this year.
 
CPA-hole said:
Northern Michigan hasn't won in forever. Hard to endorse them winning today at +360 but they have a pulse so far this year.
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The Reddit PR line only has Davenport -6. Massey -13.5 and S&P 33-16.3...will have to see if there is an angle I can find. I did take SCSU on the ML
 
Oh! Northern Michigan just played St Thomas and played them very tough! And Davenport is back-back road games off an OT loss...only beat Gannon by 9. I'm in on Northern Michigan ML!
 
Yeah I couldn't pull the trigger on No Mich.

Augustana -110 seems cheap, but that means Bemidji would start 0-4. Seems unlikely and Augie was life and death to beat Mary last week.
 
s--k said:
Oh! Northern Michigan just played St Thomas and played them very tough! And Davenport is back-back road games off an OT loss...only beat Gannon by 9. I'm in on Northern Michigan ML!
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They took it down before I could get to it.
 
Duluth and Sioux Falls was locked. Never saw the number, but that should be a good one. Bad spot for Duluth.
 
1758373130690.png

The other games were up but locked the whole time and now down. WTF with these guys!
 
Reddit spread as FP favored. Massey and SP has Bentley winning
 
Highland should be favored right? They already took it down before I could bet it!
 
Those bastards put up +122 on NM Highlands, Massey has them +3.5, but Reddit has HL -15.5! and S&P had HL winning by 11
 
For what I can summize Massey uses the last 3 years as reference. So, to me, it seems his numbers take longer to jump ship.

Kind of what I see on his Johnson C Smith lines
 
CPA-hole said:
Can't believe i missed the Highlands number. My wife started yapping and missed out.
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Wives. I was trying to reset my wife's apple ID this morning and then I had to tell her "already I've already spent too much time with you this morning". She laughed. She's known me the last 30 years, it's Saturday morning in football season.
 
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