Will walk through a few more games from the earliest to latest. Like I said before, me doing this is beneficial to me to get some ideas out ahead of time to see how I might react when the real lines come out.
Richmond O issues at Lehigh and UNC - those are good Ds relatively speaking for this Richmond O to handle right now. The real concerning one from a Richmond perspective is the Wofford game. Just 1 good drive among their first 8 with the other 7 only gaining 27y or fewer! Couldn't run well, completed a good % of passes, but just 5.27y per pass att. Maybe Wofford D is pretty good? I wouldn't think that good, but? Whether true or not the VMI D is not good so one would have to assume that if the Spider O is ever going to get it going that it happens this week. Do think the VMI O is better when Shannon is QB and he showed that last week vs a poor Bucknell D (hitting a 7-1 ratio on the year). Richmond D is strong comparatively speaking. Given the PR lines, can't say I am excited to test the waters with Richmond or take a shot at VMI, although the Massey number of 23.5 does appear high based on the fact that Richmond is only scoring 11.3 ppg through the first 3 weeks. Everyone else is at just a little over 2 TDs.
Seeing Robert Morris as a favorite is pretty bizarre. I don't know how good West Liberty is, but that team moved it on them a few drives in the 1H but came up empty for a few different reasons. RM got their run game going. Dayton appears pretty weak. Honestly I can't imagine I want to look for anything here.
Couple interesting numbers on the Mercer - Citadel game. Massey M-7.5, but Sagarin M-1.1 and Reddit C-2.5 with S&P having 27.6-13.4 for Mercer. Mercer was -21 at home last year and won 38-17 but it was one of Citadel's best offensive games (and wasn't garbage time yards). Cadets passed the ball 41x in that game, in 3 games this year Citadel has attempted just a total of 30 passes. Would think Mercer D can keep the wraps on this O like GW did last week (first 7 of 8 Citadel drives didn't cross midfield) - 225 of their 307 ttl yards came on final 3 drives. Citadel D is just good enough to limit average opposing Os and Mercer's O hasn't been good the first 2 games of the year, but they did make a QB switch last week and the passing game woke up 316y 70% (just 172 pass yards in week 0 incomplete suspended game and just 154 vs PC - last year under 200y passing 7x). Was a close game for Mercer hosting Wofford last week, 22-21, but Mercer outgained Wofford 468-291 and Bears had a situation where they were inside the W05 three times and only came away with 3 pts (missed FG and fum). I won't rule out Citadel making it interesting, but if it is basically Mercer to win the game, that has to be the play. Although I am still going to be gun shy on laying any real pts with them like the Massey 7.5 pt line.
South Dakota! I don't know if the story is Northern Colorado shoulda-coulda-woulda beating Colorado State 2 weeks ago and then almost doing it again vs USD, or the fact that USD nearly lost to UNC the annual doormat of the Big Sky! This USD team is night and day difference from last year. #1 RB Pierre is out, but didn't need him as Phillips ran for 301! To think USD would run for 307 and then also know that UNC outgained them 427-406 (5.9-6.2). Just that UNC gained 427 on them! Wow. USD D had some tremendous goal line stands and is the reason they won the game. Bouman and all the receivers are way off this year. Some Pioneer teams have been dangerous this year (San Diego beating SUU, St Thomas pushing Idaho, PC beating two SoCon teams). Drake was just in Brookings last week and were 30.5 pt dogs and they hung tough. SDSU possibly with a 'B' game off two really high profile opponents to start the year. SDSU generally led by 2-3 scores, but weren't quite as dominent as one would expect. Drake has only played 2 games and one was vs a Dll and they have started 2 different QBs in their games this year so I don't know what is going on there (Spellman week 1 and Inagawa last week). The Massey line is a joke at 27.5 given what USD has looked like and compared to the SDSU line last week and the Reddit number of 3.5 is equally funny. Sagarin has 14.5 and S&P expects about an 11 pt Yotes win. USD should be head-and-shoulders better at every spot on the field, but they are still figuring things out and underachieving considerably so far.
0-3 vs 0-3 - Did have some quick things on the Samford - Western Carolina game. Both Ds are bad. Samford hasn't scored hardly any pts, but they have moved the ball fairly well, just most of their drives end in turnovers. Offensive potential is definitely on the side of WCU and especially with Dickens back at QB. Pretty sure he has been practicing during his suspension or whatever eligibility issue had been holding him out. Dickens passed for 408 on them in the finale last year, but Samford QB Crittendon ran for 209 and 4 TDs. WCU was a 2.5pt road fav and led 37-14 after a pair of non-offensive TDs, but in typical Catamount fashion, Samford came back to within 37-35, but WCU turned it back on, got up by 10 and Samford capped it with a TD near the end for the final 47-42. WCU was 2-0 ATS last year when favored by less than 4, but when favored by 7+ were just 1-4 ATS including the opener this year with a couple of those losses being straight up. Samford is a much better dog (Bulldog) than a fav as they went 3-1 ATS in that role vs FCS last year with 2 outright wins. I really believe that WCU wins this game, just a matter of what they will make me pay for it. As for the spread PR has it ranging from 4.5-12 with S&P 38.8-23.5. I can't lay many pts with the post-WCU 2023 team as it's just proved to not be wise. The total could be something to watch for too if they open it low, which is possible because Samford has not scored pts yet this year, but they should vs this WCU D or else Hatcher might as well resign postgame. 452y they put up on The Citadel but just 13 pts.
Mercyhurst is pretty clearly better in year 2 of their Dl transition. Their D gave YSU some problems week 1 which surprised and last week but were overmatched vs Sac State run game last week. Mercyhurst O still did ok vs Sac, they scored on 3 of their F4. MH O gained 374 (5.2) with 15 pts on YSU and 369 (5.1) with 28 pts on Sac State. They played in Bozeman last year and Montana State was -48.5 and whipped them 52-13 with one of MH's TDs being a fumble return score. MH only had 233 ttl yards for 3.2ypp and of course the Cats did whatever they wanted on O. A little more mature MH team and a less leathal MSU O should make for a closer game. This might only be lined in the mid-20s at open, which is where the San Diego - MSU game started last week before being bet up to 30.5. Just to see and compare the line last year to this year will be interesting, a 20 pt difference possibly?
Indiana State at Montana would've potentially been a game if Owens was at QB, but he's not and can't like Patterson that much. Ah Yat at QB for Montana just feels like a limiting factor. He stepped up on the game winning drive for sure last week and all credit to him. I don't want to imply he's bad, he's just not special, not unique, puts a ceiling on the team. It's probably why the coaches never committed to him last year and kept playing 2 QBs. But Griz are pretty good all around - UND a better team though, better team doesn't always win and Griz found a way to comeback. I'm sure the UND staff and players are kicking themselves with how a few key decidions and plays went in that one. Indiana State looking like dog shit vs IU and Griz being Griz means this line is going to be high for the fav, somewhere north of 3 TDs. Montana's recent history as a fav of that size makes me reluctant...2-8 ATS last year as DD favs! Only covers were -37 vs Morehead and -20.5 at Cal Poly. Montana should win this comfortably, how many are too many to lay?
Gardner Webb at Ohio is potenitally intereting only if Ohio brings something less than their A game. Have not watched any OU football but know they beat WVU and played Ohio State tough (I think?) so obviously they are pretty good to play up to those teams, but then does this equate to a potential flat spot? With prior coaches they have underperformed vs FCS...21-6 vs Morgan (-25), 27-10 vs LIU (-38), 59-52 vs Fordham (-16.5), 26-28 vs Duquesne (-28.5) makes them 0-4 ATS in their one-per year FCS games recently. Situationally it is a sandwich spot off those big P4 games with the MAC opener on deck. That is the extent of my OU knowledge. For GW, I'd say they probably finish over .500 this year after going 4-8 last year. They did compete well vs two FBS teams early last year (only lost by 7 to JMU as 36.5pt dogs and were failed 2pt conv away from beating Charlotte as 13.5 pt dogs). Played Georgia Tech this year and was a mismatch. GW hasn't played well for a complete 4Q FCS game yet. They were getting blown out by Western Carolina, losing by 28 in the 2Q, but came back to win! They started good vs The Citadel last week, but then only had 1 good drive in the 2H. They rotate QBs, but not so much last week with mostly being Hampton and not so much Pennington who got the bulk of the work vs GT while Hampton got most vs WCU. Hampton can be a running threat which Pennington is not. Can't say I know a ton about GW really, but expected they would be improved from last year in year 2 of coach and they historically are a solid program. Will see what the line says, Massey at 31.5 seems high, but perception and performance by OU has been strong. Will probably be a mid-20s line like Sagarin, Reddit have, S&P+ predicts a 43-15 game.
