Week 4 Game-By-Game Analysis & Plays

[Gorgolon Lives]

YTD:
1 Unit: 3-3-1
2 Unit: 3-1
4 Unit: 0-1

Week 3 was profitable. It seems Week 4 is the first week the linesmakers seem to have a hold on the lines. A lot of weird #'s out there...

I'll post the game by game analysis now. And I'll add plays as the week goes a long. We'll at least have a few days for discussion.


Raiders @ Dolphins -3.5

Both of these teams are bad, but have shown some life in week 3. Raiders are a no-play, as we don't know who will be playing QB. Dolphins are a no play because we can't lay points with a winless team.


Texans -3 @ Falcons

The Texans have considerable injuries on Offense. Johnson and Jones are OUT at WR. Dayne and Green are QUES. Atlanta has improved each game this season. Last week Harrington was able to convert some passes, namely to Roddy White. I thought Atlanta played pretty well against Carolina last week. The low O/U suggests Houston might struggle offensively, and Atlanta could control this game on the ground. Houston has played high scoring games in all 3 weeks so far, so a low-scoring game would definitely favor the Falcons. I'll monitor the RB status for Houston, and I might take the Falcons later this week. This is a nice home dog situation.


Ravens -4.5 @ Browns

I'm not prepared to lay points on the road with Baltimore. They have had 3 very close calls this season. Heap is QUES. And the QB situation is a little cloudy with McNair banged up. No play on the Browns coming off a loss to lowly Oakland.


Bears -3 @ Lions

Well, I certainly can't play Chicago. Their QB situation is bad right now. Griese will start. I'll need to see him play a game first before playing this team. The Lions are coming off a BAD game at Philly. They should be emotionally charged for this one, but that defense is brutal. No result would shock me in this one.


Packers -1.5 @ Vikings

The big story is the 3-0 Packers and Favre going for the TD record. I think he will force the issue a lot in this game, and he might not even get the record this week. The Vikings D is tough. No way will GB be able to run in week 4. Favre might throw 35-40 times. QB Jackson is QUES for Minny. The offense looked poor yet again in Week 3, and there's no way I can play a bad offense vs. a good defense. Nothing here...


Rams @ Dallas -13

Strange #. Dallas is good, but laying 13 With that susceptible defense? No way! RB Jackson is OUT, and STL will likely go to the air often this week. Bulger might be able to turn things around against this pass D. The trouble is STL can't stop anyone on the ground, and Dallas will run all day long.


Jets -3.5 @ Bills

Rookie Trent Edwards starts for Buffalo, so we can't play them. The Jets haven't played too bad this season, they've just had a tough schedule. Pennington played well in week 3, and the offense actually looked half decent. I can't play NY here, however. Last year, this D allowed 169 and 174 yards on the ground in the 2 meetings with Buffalo. Expect the Bills to pound the ball to Lynch (Especially with a rookie QB) and have success. This could be a field goal game. No play...


Bucs @ Panthers -2.5

No play until Delhomme's status is known.


Seahawks -2 @ 49ers

Seattle is coming off an emotional home win against the Bengals. The Niners are coming off a brutal loss @ Pitt. This could be a good situational spot to play SF. The Niners will pound the ball on the ground with Gore. Last year, 262 and 228 respectively in 2 games (2 wins) against Seattle. I'm a huge Alex Smith hater. And it doesn't help that he has no weapons in pass game. TE Davis is OUT in week 4. The Niners will be 1 dimensional in this game, and the fact that they haven't scored over 17 points scares me. No play as of now...


Steelers -5.5 @ Cardinals

I think this game will be a blowout, and I'm taking the hot Steelers for 1 Unit. Hines Ward is likely OUT, but Holmes should have no problem filling in for him. Willie Parker has had a lot of success on the ground, and that should continue in week 4. The main reason for this play is the Steelers D vs. Leinart. Leinart was "pulled" in week 3 in a move the coach tried to downplay. Leinart's confidence has to be low, as he has looked awful this season. Expect the Steelers to bring pressure and rattle the pretty boy. 34, 26, and 37 points in 3 weeks for Pitt. They are looking liking one of the league's best. Steelers -5.5 for 1 Unit.


Chiefs @ Chargers -12

No play here. The Chargers have to show they can win a game in commanding fashion before laying this kind of number.


Broncos @ Colts -9.5

I'm taking Indy here. The Broncos should probably be 0-3 this season. And they haven't even played top competition. Cutler is a little banged up for week 4. Indy will have success on the ground this week, and that will open up the pass game. I don't see Indy having any trouble on offense this week. On D, Indy's quickness up front should counteract the zone run game of Denver. Henry shouldn't have a huge game this week. The Broncos will struggle mightily. I don't expect this one to be close at all. Colts -9.5 for 1 Unit.


Eagles -2.5 @ Giants

This is the Sunday night game. More analysis to come later. Slight lean on Philly. Might play it depending on how the day goes.



The Plays So Far:

Steelers -5.5 (1 Unit) Final: Steelers 28 Cardinals 13

Colts -9.5 (1 Unit) Final: Colts 31 Broncos 17

Atlanta +3 (1 Unit) Final: Atlanta 21 Houston 17

Leans:

Falcons +3

49ers +2

Eagles -2.5


GL :cheers:

 

[B.A.R.]

Like the Falcons and Iggles as well.

Great thoughts

 

[phatprep3]

Yo believe, love the thread. The fact that Ken Whisenhunt is the coach in Arizona makes me a little scared of that game. You know he has to know the ins and outs of Big Ben and might be able to break down that 3-4 better than most coaches. Like all your leans.

 

[frankiegotti]

Pittsburgh lean is solid, even if whisenhunt knows pittsburgh all too well which he does he doesn't have the horses in the trenches (on either side of the ball) to compete with pittsburgh.

Also, whisenhunt has only seen 2nd team deffenses and has no familarity whatsoever with Dick Lebeau's 3-4 and zone blitzing. As offensive coordinator of pittsburgh all his efforts went into studying opposition defenses. If dick lebeau was on the cardinals then yea there may be something to be said about the recognition of defenses. But in all likely hood whisenhunt will know as much about pitt's defense as most other head coaches would. Where i can see a slight edge for whisenhunt is maybe knowing a couple specifics about defensive players in terms of familarity of athletic ability or certain things defensive players do, like i said a little edge if that but nothing worth mentioning or making a play or no play about. Even if he did know he is still going to have trouble knowing where the blitzes are comming from.

Casey Hampton has played all-world thus far. He is taking up two blockers on every play and really clogging up the middle forcing teams to try to run outside, outside isn't working either because of the speed they have on OLB. If there was a prop Edgerrin James over/under 60 yards i would take the under. I think most plays the pitt defense is going to get 2 or 3 yards penetration. Arizona may be getting better but pittsburgh is already a top echleon team.

Big Ben is looking good as many thought he would. Santonio Holmes is quickly becomming a top reciever. I still believe by year end he will be pitt's leading reciever. Ward is doubtful for this game and most likely will not play as pitt's coaching staff knows this game is pretty much a gimmi and will need heinz's health for the middle of the season against NE, cincinatti, and jacksonville. The offensivel line is opening up holes that it could put a mack truck through. Also, willie parker has added about 8-12 pounds of muscle in the offseason making him better when he meets resistence he can still get about 2 or 3 yards oppose to last years no gain or gain of a yard. The troubling aspect of this offense for me is: lack of quality of depth at WR because pitt has cedrick wilson who always shows up in preseason but disappoints in regular season, willie reid who pisses himself when he goes over the middle and dosen't cover up the ball creating a lot of fumbles, and Nate Washington who can make the circus catch but when making a routine catch drops it all the time.

For the record i am NOT a pittsburgh fan, so my opinion is free of bias.

 

[SF_capper]

good shit. Cash this.

 

[Blue_Chip]

GL partner...

Tell me your thoughts on Patriots -7 @ Bengals (post answer in my thread).

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

I like the Lions a lot this weekend, this is their big statement game ... Kitna and Roy Williams seem to be on a mission and the Bears defense is absolutely decimated by injury, Tillman, Vasher, Harris, Brown, I'm sure I'm forgetting someone. I don't think the Bears offense can stick with the Lions. Great writeups as always Believe.

 

[SF_capper]

Like the leans

 

[xxDaJackaLxx]

With you on SF and Pitt

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I like the Lions a lot this weekend, this is their big statement game ... Kitna and Roy Williams seem to be on a mission and the Bears defense is absolutely decimated by injury, Tillman, Vasher, Harris, Brown, I'm sure I'm forgetting someone. I don't think the Bears offense can stick with the Lions. Great writeups as always Believe.

Definitely gotta monitor the Bears defensive injuries. Im hearing possibly 7 starters OUT! The problem is the Lions defense is just plain awful. It's really hard to put any money on them. The Bears still DO have a few weapons on offense. And I'm sure Griese has been itching to start. Knowing Grossman likely won't re-sign next year, this is Griese's chance to takeover the helm of a contending NFC team.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

good stuff, believe. BOL on the plays.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Adding Atlanta +3 (1 Unit).

GL all!

 

[C-Gold]

I like your style

 

[Popcorn Light]

:cheers: