Week 4 Discussion

E

EstreetPicks

Pretty much a regular
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#800000 height=20><TD width=225>Sunday, September 28, 2008</TD><TD width=75 bgColor=#ffffff>Game/2ndH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>2ndQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>3rdQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>4thQ</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>#</TD><TD width=200>Team Name </TD><TD align=right width=95>Spread </TD><TD align=middle width=95>Total</TD><TD align=middle width=55>MoneyLn</TD><TD align=right width=85>T1 Total </TD><TD align=right width=85>T2 Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>195</TD><TD width=185>Denver Broncos</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-9½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>46</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>196</TD><TD width=185>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>197</TD><TD width=185>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD align=right width=85>-105</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>198</TD><TD width=185>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD align=right width=85>-3½ -115</TD><TD align=middle width=85>42½</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>199</TD><TD width=185>Houston Texans</TD><TD align=right width=85>-130</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>200</TD><TD width=185>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD align=right width=85>-9 +110</TD><TD align=middle width=85>40</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>203</TD><TD width=185>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>204</TD><TD width=185>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-6½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>49½</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>205</TD><TD width=185>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>206</TD><TD width=185>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-7</TD><TD align=middle width=85>39</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>207</TD><TD width=185>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>208</TD><TD width=185>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-3½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>36½</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>3:05 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>211</TD><TD width=185>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-9</TD><TD align=middle width=85>41½</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>212</TD><TD width=185>St Louis Rams</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Update Lines as of Monday night

<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>195</TD><TD width=185>Denver Broncos</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-9</TD><TD align=middle width=85>46</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>196</TD><TD width=185>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>197</TD><TD width=185>Cleveland Browns</TD><TD align=right width=85> -115</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>198</TD><TD width=185>Cincinnati Bengals</TD><TD align=right width=85>-3½ -105</TD><TD align=middle width=85>44</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>199</TD><TD width=185>Houston Texans</TD><TD align=right width=85> -130</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>200</TD><TD width=185>Jacksonville Jaguars</TD><TD align=right width=85>-9 +110</TD><TD align=middle width=85>42</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>203</TD><TD width=185>San Francisco 49ers</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>204</TD><TD width=185>New Orleans Saints</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-6</TD><TD align=middle width=85>48½</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>205</TD><TD width=185>Atlanta Falcons</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>206</TD><TD width=185>Carolina Panthers</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-7</TD><TD align=middle width=85>39</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>207</TD><TD width=185>Minnesota Vikings</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>208</TD><TD width=185>Tennessee Titans</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-3</TD><TD align=middle width=85>36½</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>209</TD><TD width=185>Green Bay Packers</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>210</TD><TD width=185>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-1½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>43</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>3:05 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>211</TD><TD width=185>Buffalo Bills</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-8</TD><TD align=middle width=85>41½</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>212</TD><TD width=185>St Louis Rams</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>3:15 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>215</TD><TD width=185>Washington Redskins</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>216</TD><TD width=185>Dallas Cowboys</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-11½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>46</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Bills were an overlay with 9 at home now they are 9 on the road?

Will the 3.5 go to 3 in Cinci?

Hou was screwed with scheduling but no way Garard & co. should lay 9 to anyone


Back on the road, back to a dd loss for ATL
 
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well so much for nawlins being my survivor pick it looks like. if that not a sucker line i dont know what is.
 
Denver should be able to name their score, especially if Thigpen starts.
..put 8 in the box and take away LJ..too much balance on O for the Rat for KC to stop...300 rush D vs OAK, 186 to ATL...yikes

Cincy looks to be improving...Browns are dreadful...

Sage watch is on in Houston, however Jags off emotional win and Texans always seem to get up for the Jags..at least Slaton looks like a keeper...pass

Think SF is a live dog...nice O balance for Niners...Saints lack of running game keeps them from controlling games..teams are always in it cause the Saints can't run out the clock...

Falcons very leaky on run D suddenly, which plays into Panthers strength..don't like Falcs on road, but I don't have enough faith in Panthers O either ..pass

Vikes-Titans ..both teams want to establish run, both teams excel in taking run away...toss up game ..pass

If Bill do not turn it over, and play their normal above-average special teams, they should win this by DD...may keep it light cause I hate laying in interconference games, but Rams have been outscored 29-116 in 3 games, and show no signs of improving..
 
damn, denver has a favorable schedule remaining:

<TABLE class=yspwhitebg border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2><TD></TD><TD>at Kansas City</TD><TD>1:00 pm</TD><TD>Buy Tickets</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 5</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 5</TD><TD>Tampa Bay</TD><TD>4:05 pm</TD><TD>Buy Tickets</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 6</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 12</TD><TD>Jacksonville</TD><TD>4:05 pm</TD><TD>Buy Tickets</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 7</TD><TD>Mon, Oct 20</TD><TD>at New England</TD><TD>8:30 pm</TD><TD>Buy Tickets</TD><TD>ESPN</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 8</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>bye</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>--</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 9</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 2</TD><TD>Miami</TD><TD>4:05 pm</TD><TD>Buy Tickets</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 10</TD><TD>Thu, Nov 6</TD><TD>at Cleveland</TD><TD>8:15 pm</TD><TD>Buy Tickets</TD><TD>NFL</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 11</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 16</TD><TD>at Atlanta</TD><TD>1:00 pm</TD><TD>Buy Tickets</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 12</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 23</TD><TD>Oakland</TD><TD>4:05 pm</TD><TD>Buy Tickets</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 13</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 30</TD><TD>at NY Jets</TD><TD>1:00 pm</TD><TD>Buy Tickets</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 14</TD><TD>Sun, Dec 7</TD><TD>Kansas City</TD><TD>4:05 pm</TD><TD>Buy Tickets</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 15</TD><TD>Sun, Dec 14</TD><TD>at Carolina</TD><TD>1:00 pm</TD><TD>Buy Tickets</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 16</TD><TD>Sun, Dec 21</TD><TD>Buffalo</TD><TD>4:05 pm</TD><TD>Buy Tickets</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 17</TD><TD>Sun, Dec 28</TD><TD>at San Diego</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I was looking for a spot to fade them in the future, looks like I might have to wait for the playoffs
 
but seriously, denver could be 1-2 if not for lucky breaks. SD debacle, Gramatica missing a 42 yrder with little less than 2 min to go to take lead
 
texans really are not that bad. andre was droppin balls all first half and if they settled for the fg rather than go for it on a couple possession deep in titan territory, they would have been going in for the win rather than the cover on that final drive.

plus they play the jags really well. 9 / 10 point line on that game seems like way too much.
 
Denver-9.5---- Seems too easy but there is no way KC can run with the Denver.

MIN/TEN-Under. Both team's defenses matchup well with what the other team does. I don't see any value in the line as I think it's dead on.

Houston +9 for sure. Houston played much better than the score indicated. They were in the red zone three times against the Titans defense in the second half and got no points. Jax was fired up last week to save their season and this is a great letdown spot for them, and Houston always seems to give them problems.

I'll probably bet Bills -9 even though I'm not crazy about it. The Rams and Chiefs should be faded the rest of the season.
 
Nut- sell me on Minnesota! Line is where it should be imo, so I'm not planning to touch it. However, gut says Minny, so wanna hear your explanation. Only things I can think of:
Minny has looked decent thus far despite 1-2. Lost to indi, which we can agree prolly wouldnt happen with ferotte.
-legit loss to GB- close game, but outplayed. nothing wrong with road loss at GB
-solid win for that D gainst carolina, although if we're counting 'free' points, got to give Minny at least 7 for the fumble recovery TD. which would make it a 3 pt game and completely change everything about the game.
-ferotte did decent job against a solid D.
-Tennesse does not impress you? keeping teams under 10 PPG. I know Cinci, Jax, and Houston are not world beaters, but cannot expect more from any D..
Where do you see the edge in this game? I know I've seen you write that these two teams you see as similiar only Minny as slightly better- right?
sell this one to me

so far, all I got in is Houston +7.5. waiting for 300 on the ML if it comes- really like it this week
 
KC/Denver U46

With Huard starting, KC should have less 3 and outs. KC should be able to use up more clock with Huard and the re-establishment of the run. Which also will prevent the opponent from starting in Tampa's territory.

Texans +9

The game vs. Tenn. should have been much closer if it was the stupid play calling in the redzone. A couple of fg's and Schaub probably would have to force the pick 6.
 
The home team has lost the last 5 games between Atlanta/Carolina, and the road team has covered the spread each time.

11/11/07 ATL 20 - CAR 13 (ATL +3.5)
09/23/07 CAR 27 - ATL 20 (CAR -4)
12/24/06 CAR 10 - ATL 3 (CAR +6)
09/10/06 ATL 20 - CAR 6 (ATL +5)
01/01/06 CAR 44 - ATL 11 (CAR -3)
 
SF_capper said:
Nut- sell me on Minnesota! Line is where it should be imo, so I'm not planning to touch it. However, gut says Minny, so wanna hear your explanation. Only things I can think of:
Minny has looked decent thus far despite 1-2. Lost to indi, which we can agree prolly wouldnt happen with ferotte.
-legit loss to GB- close game, but outplayed. nothing wrong with road loss at GB
-solid win for that D gainst carolina, although if we're counting 'free' points, got to give Minny at least 7 for the fumble recovery TD. which would make it a 3 pt game and completely change everything about the game.
-ferotte did decent job against a solid D.
-Tennesse does not impress you? keeping teams under 10 PPG. I know Cinci, Jax, and Houston are not world beaters, but cannot expect more from any D..
Where do you see the edge in this game? I know I've seen you write that these two teams you see as similiar only Minny as slightly better- right?
sell this one to me

so far, all I got in is Houston +7.5. waiting for 300 on the ML if it comes- really like it this week
Click to expand...

Basically your post is a good foundation . QB play was an issue for Minny as Jackson never really gave them a spark . As Frerotte plays more and Minny WR get healthier as well as AP I think the offense shows progression. I think it was shown in the CAR game and while TD before half on the fumble was a huge spark the offense after 3 punts in the 1st Q and INT had 3 long frives whicg resulted in a TD and 2 short FGs along with 2 punts in there last 5 touches . They had but 5 possessions in the final 3 quarters . Now the 10 points Minny allowed early had some gift wrapping IMO. First drive bad job on ST allowing Stewart to get to the 38 yd line but 1st pass goes to Smith and a face mask tacks on 15 so already they have 1 play and stand at the Vikings 31 which they only add 6 yds on 3rd down and got a FG . Probably could have avoided the FG attempt w/o the penalty . On theer TD drive 2 crucial plays . They allow on 3rd and 6 at the Vikes 36 yd line a 20 yd pass int play. They hold them to 3rd and 9 at the 16 and allow a 14 yd reception to Rosario and CAR soon scores a TD .

So really the defense had 3 bad moments and they all seemed to result in points . They may still have there bad moments @ Tenny but doesnt mean the opponent will score either .

Very poistive IMO allowing just 204 yds of total offense . After the score the Panthers basically ran 25 plays the rest of the game and had 22 net yards not counting the last 30 seconds where they picked up 18 on 3 plays . While Minny ran 42 plays for 232 yds from that CAR TD forward .....So really despite a relatively close game from 10-0 on it was all MINNY .

1st FG they had 1st and 10 at the 13 but settled for 3 pts
1st TD on offense they hit 48 and 34 yd pass plays to score
2nd FG they had 1st and 10 at the 13 again , they got it to 3rd and 1 at the 3 yd line and then had consecutive 10 yd assume holding penalties to make it 3rd and 21 from the 23 !!! Car bailed them out some with a hold thereafter for an automatic 1st down but they were still down 15 yds net field position. Anyway they didnt get another 1st down and sttled for 3 again.

The Colts game we all know the Colts are down so far in 2008 but they did have Sanders here unlike week 3 . 41 minutes into the game Minny was BLANKING the COLTS and led 15-0 ! They need 1 score to basically close the door but culdnt get it , asa TD certainly would have ended the game IMO . They left the door open and Indy charged through eventually . Scoreless is impressive but we mean 31 plays and 98 yds of offense for nearly 3 quarters ! Never really getting into MINNY territory or scroing position. Finally late 3rd Q Indy scores and for all that dominance you have 16 or som minutes left and a 15-7 game ...
Of course Minny fumbles ensuing possession and gives Indy great field position but the Vikes def held them a FG attempt and they missed . Get the ball back do nothing and punt it away . Another defensive play as Minny gets an INT and Indys 47 to start . Again a chance to ice the game make it 11 points and 2 scores . They do little on offense and Longwell who had been so good missed a lonh FG of about 48 yds ! Right there you know Minny has lost as you just cant give Indy all these chances and now down just 7 fairly solid field position . Of course in a blink Indy scores and ties it up . Again Minny doesnt move the ball gives it back and there defense holds again . This time Minny is backed up with about 2 to play they need a 1st down or two to get to OT worst case ...of course they punt and since they were backed up Indy didnt have to do much to get in FG range and win.....Very clear how the offense lost them that game IMO...

Now @ GB I think it was actually a very similiar play to the Indy game except they were on the road . While I agree no shame in losing @ GB. It took a very solid game from GB to win by 5 . Lets not forget the game ended around 1 minute to play and Minny a few yard short of midfield . To which Jackson again couldnt make a play and was picked to ice the game .

There were several key plays that really all went in GBs favor . First Minny missed a 2pt conversion in what was a 5 pt game and as I said ball was at midfield with 1 to play so a game tying FG was possible if they had converted earlier . Also Minny offense played well in the 2nd H . They went 9p79yd but settled for 3 pts , 11p 80yds for a TD nd 15 plays 79 yds for a TD .

Look at GB scores. They needed a GREAT catch by Jennings for 56 yds bewteen Vikes defenders and a perfect throw by Rodgers to set up the 1st score not to mention Minny had 3 straight penalties whenGB had the ball at the 3 basically putting the ball at the edge of the goal line for them to convert but still didnt score till 3rd and goal at the 1 with that off balance pass by Rodgers , they had an 8 play 60yd for a FG set up by a nice Grant run fo 19 yds and 25 yd catch by Jennings , GB right before half moved the ball to the into FG range but Crosby was blocked , they had a 2nd Q punt return for a TD , then in the 4th Q the huge Grant 50 yd run setup another score . Which was the only 2nd H possession they didnt punt .

So my point is this GB is a solid offense with many weapons it used the big play ability vs Minny to win this game . They had a great catch that setup the TD , a great run setup a TD , a punt return for a TD and two solid drives one ended in a FG and another a blocked FG attempt . GB didnt really accomplish much on offense . Only moving the ball on 4 possessions of 9 which one was a 2 minute drill before half and the other 2 were resulst of big 50+ yd plays and the other even used 2 medium range plays (44 yds combined ) to set upthe FG ...

So even though Minny punted 5 x they had only two 3 and outs. They had two 16 yd drives which lasted 6 and 9 plays that resulted in punts but also a 5 p 35 yd drive that was a punt .....

GB all game had only 317 yds of offense granted just 49 plays . Think of it like this though they had a 56 and 57 play so the other 47 plays they ran 204yds gained and take out the 2 lays that resulted in 44 yds your looking at 160 yds gained all game on 45 plays so really we are talking about a game which GB had 8 or 9 plays that did almost all of the damage .

Tenny doesnt have the same amount of offensive weaponery and while COllins can be a very effecient passer Justin Gage's availability orlack thereoff could be huge . Minny wasnt beat by TEs and they were really only allowing 2 runs in 3 games both by Grant 57 and 19 yds so not sure what Tenny is gonna do on the ground .

Pts allowed doesnt impressive me really. The Texans left the ball on the 1yd line twice and went for 2 ptC in the 2nd Q so they shoud have cracked 20 rather easily IMO . The Jags are a mess IMO and while they did dominant that offense both Jags runners were hurting in the preseason and hard to imagine they werent still when the season opened as Taylor and Drew had 14 carries combined ! In a game that was close throughout 10-7 to start the 4th q . So who is afraid of Jax throwing the ball ? Then factor in no threat on the ground and a very good tenny defense ...so no suprise to me . Nice job by Tenny but not impressive in my book. Then vs Cincy again nice effort but what bonus is awarded ? Cincy was fresh off a 99yd passing game by Palmer and 160 total yrads . So it happened again the following week vs a good defense . Is it a suprise ? Its not like they Bengals were fresh off dropping 28 on Balt .....

So they benefited clearly from who they matched up with and more importantly when they matched up with them.

I see Minny as the better team in terms of running the ball and passing the ball especially if they have Rice or Tenny doesnt have Gage . I see Minny as probably the top ranked defense so far in 2008 . IMO they are a better defense then Tenny and on the road at TENNY I would say the defenses are a wash but Minny is a better offense and Tenny a weaker offense so that to me gives the VIKES the edge ....

Tenny played Jax and Hous plus away @ Cincy ...jags the best of the lot has huge OL issues and RBs were presumably less then healthy .

Vikes played Indy and Carolina and @ GB ...all legit playoff teams all above avg offenses even if Indy is down ......

240yds (89/151) allowed for Tenny and 280 (70r /210 p)for Minny now consider opponents ...
Garrard , Palmer off a 99 yd effort , and Schaub OR
Rodgers , Manning and Delhomme ???

2 banged up Jags RBs , Chris Perry and Steve Slaton 2nd career game Or
Ryan Grant , Joseph Addai , Jonathan Stewart -D'Angelo Williams ???

Just see Minny as better and having 2 close losses and face a team who is 3-0 a good situational angle as well........

If Tenny cant run the ball and really teams have struggled to vs Minny then can they beat them through the air ??? Tenny was run on by Slaton and now you have AP to deal with and dont see Frerotte as any different then Garrard or Schaub who were okay @ Tenny .....
:cheers:








 
Looking at -

SF - Saints could be down to starting OL , both WRs could be out , SHockey is OUT , not sure about Fujita ??

TB - Only because on the defensive side the GB team came away with aloy of injuries and banged up players . Weather may play a role for a GB team going to FLA. Just a lean would be on GB if they were healthy .....

Bengals - Cause they showed improvement and CLE hasnt shown much. The Browns offense will not get going until they have a healthy 2nd and 3rd WR to compliment Edwards as well as Braylon and the Soldier start making some plays to help there team out ...of course I would buy this to 3 even 2.5 if I do ....

KC +10 - Talked enough about this one read DaJackal's thread for his and my opposing viewpoints .....might even drop some ML here

Jets ML- Think they didshow slight improvement on offense and built some momentum with the late semi comeback . ona has not traveled EAST well and lost @ Wash . Truth is I didnt expect NY to be favored so not sure I play it was hoping for Zona -1.5 or something ....lean

Texans +8 or whatever it is- Jags defense is done there offense relies to much on pounding the ball and Houston can score and should have done alot more vs tenny....

Chargers - lean only hate riding a team as road chalk ona short week but close trip ....SD is getting it in gear and after those 2 tough losses expecting some quality performances and the offense is starting to really click ...LT is healthier and Sproles getting more time ....OAK just dont have a passing game and dont think they can just run the ballvs the SD front an dbe successful...low scoring game here ...

Skins +11 - another lean not sold on this team but DALLAS just continues with sloppy play and that makes big spreads tough to cover especially against a decent team. Question is how does the Skins offense play here as DAL defense IMO is showing well ......

Totals - Just really SD under and maybe TB under as well ....also possibly Texans over as there defense is soft ....:cheers:
 
buckeyeburritos said:
The home team has lost the last 5 games between Atlanta/Carolina, and the road team has covered the spread each time.

11/11/07 ATL 20 - CAR 13 (ATL +3.5)
09/23/07 CAR 27 - ATL 20 (CAR -4)
12/24/06 CAR 10 - ATL 3 (CAR +6)
09/10/06 ATL 20 - CAR 6 (ATL +5)
01/01/06 CAR 44 - ATL 11 (CAR -3)
Click to expand...

One problem is alot Vick QB QBed games and last year ATL had the QB carousel and DelHomme got hurt ...tough to apply IMO.....
 
SportsNut said:
Basically your post is a good foundation . QB play was an issue for Minny as Jackson never really gave them a spark . As Frerotte plays more and Minny WR get healthier as well as AP I think the offense shows progression. I think it was shown in the CAR game and while TD before half on the fumble was a huge spark the offense after 3 punts in the 1st Q and INT had 3 long frives whicg resulted in a TD and 2 short FGs along with 2 punts in there last 5 touches . They had but 5 possessions in the final 3 quarters . Now the 10 points Minny allowed early had some gift wrapping IMO. First drive bad job on ST allowing Stewart to get to the 38 yd line but 1st pass goes to Smith and a face mask tacks on 15 so already they have 1 play and stand at the Vikings 31 which they only add 6 yds on 3rd down and got a FG . Probably could have avoided the FG attempt w/o the penalty . On theer TD drive 2 crucial plays . They allow on 3rd and 6 at the Vikes 36 yd line a 20 yd pass int play. They hold them to 3rd and 9 at the 16 and allow a 14 yd reception to Rosario and CAR soon scores a TD .

So really the defense had 3 bad moments and they all seemed to result in points . They may still have there bad moments @ Tenny but doesnt mean the opponent will score either .

Very poistive IMO allowing just 204 yds of total offense . After the score the Panthers basically ran 25 plays the rest of the game and had 22 net yards not counting the last 30 seconds where they picked up 18 on 3 plays . While Minny ran 42 plays for 232 yds from that CAR TD forward .....So really despite a relatively close game from 10-0 on it was all MINNY .

1st FG they had 1st and 10 at the 13 but settled for 3 pts
1st TD on offense they hit 48 and 34 yd pass plays to score
2nd FG they had 1st and 10 at the 13 again , they got it to 3rd and 1 at the 3 yd line and then had consecutive 10 yd assume holding penalties to make it 3rd and 21 from the 23 !!! Car bailed them out some with a hold thereafter for an automatic 1st down but they were still down 15 yds net field position. Anyway they didnt get another 1st down and sttled for 3 again.

The Colts game we all know the Colts are down so far in 2008 but they did have Sanders here unlike week 3 . 41 minutes into the game Minny was BLANKING the COLTS and led 15-0 ! They need 1 score to basically close the door but culdnt get it , asa TD certainly would have ended the game IMO . They left the door open and Indy charged through eventually . Scoreless is impressive but we mean 31 plays and 98 yds of offense for nearly 3 quarters ! Never really getting into MINNY territory or scroing position. Finally late 3rd Q Indy scores and for all that dominance you have 16 or som minutes left and a 15-7 game ...
Of course Minny fumbles ensuing possession and gives Indy great field position but the Vikes def held them a FG attempt and they missed . Get the ball back do nothing and punt it away . Another defensive play as Minny gets an INT and Indys 47 to start . Again a chance to ice the game make it 11 points and 2 scores . They do little on offense and Longwell who had been so good missed a lonh FG of about 48 yds ! Right there you know Minny has lost as you just cant give Indy all these chances and now down just 7 fairly solid field position . Of course in a blink Indy scores and ties it up . Again Minny doesnt move the ball gives it back and there defense holds again . This time Minny is backed up with about 2 to play they need a 1st down or two to get to OT worst case ...of course they punt and since they were backed up Indy didnt have to do much to get in FG range and win.....Very clear how the offense lost them that game IMO...

Now @ GB I think it was actually a very similiar play to the Indy game except they were on the road . While I agree no shame in losing @ GB. It took a very solid game from GB to win by 5 . Lets not forget the game ended around 1 minute to play and Minny a few yard short of midfield . To which Jackson again couldnt make a play and was picked to ice the game .

There were several key plays that really all went in GBs favor . First Minny missed a 2pt conversion in what was a 5 pt game and as I said ball was at midfield with 1 to play so a game tying FG was possible if they had converted earlier . Also Minny offense played well in the 2nd H . They went 9p79yd but settled for 3 pts , 11p 80yds for a TD nd 15 plays 79 yds for a TD .

Look at GB scores. They needed a GREAT catch by Jennings for 56 yds bewteen Vikes defenders and a perfect throw by Rodgers to set up the 1st score not to mention Minny had 3 straight penalties whenGB had the ball at the 3 basically putting the ball at the edge of the goal line for them to convert but still didnt score till 3rd and goal at the 1 with that off balance pass by Rodgers , they had an 8 play 60yd for a FG set up by a nice Grant run fo 19 yds and 25 yd catch by Jennings , GB right before half moved the ball to the into FG range but Crosby was blocked , they had a 2nd Q punt return for a TD , then in the 4th Q the huge Grant 50 yd run setup another score . Which was the only 2nd H possession they didnt punt .

So my point is this GB is a solid offense with many weapons it used the big play ability vs Minny to win this game . They had a great catch that setup the TD , a great run setup a TD , a punt return for a TD and two solid drives one ended in a FG and another a blocked FG attempt . GB didnt really accomplish much on offense . Only moving the ball on 4 possessions of 9 which one was a 2 minute drill before half and the other 2 were resulst of big 50+ yd plays and the other even used 2 medium range plays (44 yds combined ) to set upthe FG ...

So even though Minny punted 5 x they had only two 3 and outs. They had two 16 yd drives which lasted 6 and 9 plays that resulted in punts but also a 5 p 35 yd drive that was a punt .....

GB all game had only 317 yds of offense granted just 49 plays . Think of it like this though they had a 56 and 57 play so the other 47 plays they ran 204yds gained and take out the 2 lays that resulted in 44 yds your looking at 160 yds gained all game on 45 plays so really we are talking about a game which GB had 8 or 9 plays that did almost all of the damage .

Tenny doesnt have the same amount of offensive weaponery and while COllins can be a very effecient passer Justin Gage's availability orlack thereoff could be huge . Minny wasnt beat by TEs and they were really only allowing 2 runs in 3 games both by Grant 57 and 19 yds so not sure what Tenny is gonna do on the ground .

Pts allowed doesnt impressive me really. The Texans left the ball on the 1yd line twice and went for 2 ptC in the 2nd Q so they shoud have cracked 20 rather easily IMO . The Jags are a mess IMO and while they did dominant that offense both Jags runners were hurting in the preseason and hard to imagine they werent still when the season opened as Taylor and Drew had 14 carries combined ! In a game that was close throughout 10-7 to start the 4th q . So who is afraid of Jax throwing the ball ? Then factor in no threat on the ground and a very good tenny defense ...so no suprise to me . Nice job by Tenny but not impressive in my book. Then vs Cincy again nice effort but what bonus is awarded ? Cincy was fresh off a 99yd passing game by Palmer and 160 total yrads . So it happened again the following week vs a good defense . Is it a suprise ? Its not like they Bengals were fresh off dropping 28 on Balt .....

So they benefited clearly from who they matched up with and more importantly when they matched up with them.

I see Minny as the better team in terms of running the ball and passing the ball especially if they have Rice or Tenny doesnt have Gage . I see Minny as probably the top ranked defense so far in 2008 . IMO they are a better defense then Tenny and on the road at TENNY I would say the defenses are a wash but Minny is a better offense and Tenny a weaker offense so that to me gives the VIKES the edge ....

Tenny played Jax and Hous plus away @ Cincy ...jags the best of the lot has huge OL issues and RBs were presumably less then healthy .

Vikes played Indy and Carolina and @ GB ...all legit playoff teams all above avg offenses even if Indy is down ......

240yds (89/151) allowed for Tenny and 280 (70r /210 p)for Minny now consider opponents ...
Garrard , Palmer off a 99 yd effort , and Schaub OR
Rodgers , Manning and Delhomme ???

2 banged up Jags RBs , Chris Perry and Steve Slaton 2nd career game Or
Ryan Grant , Joseph Addai , Jonathan Stewart -D'Angelo Williams ???

Just see Minny as better and having 2 close losses and face a team who is 3-0 a good situational angle as well........

If Tenny cant run the ball and really teams have struggled to vs Minny then can they beat them through the air ??? Tenny was run on by Slaton and now you have AP to deal with and dont see Frerotte as any different then Garrard or Schaub who were okay @ Tenny .....
:cheers:
Click to expand...


Sick, Sick, Sick post.

a few things to add:

AP wasn't running to his full ability, anyone that has watched a significant amount of games or has watched AP in general know that when he hits the hole, he hits it hard. He runs like a man possessed. This was not the case last week, he was 70% at best last week. From what I have heard, he is feeling better, so that should help.

In the first half Gus was very timid, the Vikings ran alot of passing plays, because thats what Carolina showed as there weakness on defense. You noticed that once Gus got under control he played well in the 2nd half. One could say the first INT he had in the first half wasn't entirely his fault. the ball went through Shianco's hands and fell into a Carolina defenders.

Sport also hit the nail on the head about Tennessee. I believe they are the worst 3-0 team in the league. For almost 3 years now teams have not been able to run the ball on us. Our defense has improved since last year, and last week was the first true showing of that. Allen called out his teamates after the week 2 loss against Indy, and basically said this team needs to start making the big plays instead of giving them up, and thats exactly what happened. Our Linebacker play has been amazing.

Our offense hasn't looked great, but AP hasn't gone off either yet this year. It's going to happen soon, hopefully on Sunday.
 
Dam nice writeup SN. Definitely like Minny much more after that. just a couple things:

1) in the GB/Minny game, do not forget the 3rd Q (i think?) where Rodgers had another big play (70+?- dont remember to well) to driver down the right sideline for a TD that got called off because the dumbass lineman ran past 5 yards in celebration. That had no effect on the play, and GB should have had 7, but instead lost momentum and had to punt. technically- these should be counted as free 7 points for minny imo for that game

2)
Just see Minny as better and having 2 close losses and face a team who is 3-0 a good situational angle as well........
-please explain further? you mean to say Titans might be too relaxed since they're undefeated?

Again, nice writeup and I'm sure it helped more than just me
 
ooooooh....hey SN. just found out- down 2 in the 2nd Q, Houston DID NOT go for two to tie it. they botched a snap for the extra point, but the boxscores say 'player' rushed for no gain. damn..
 
SF_capper said:
damn, denver has a favorable schedule remaining
Click to expand...

I thought about trading Cutler in fantasy, but then I saw the same thing you did when looking at his schedule. With what I've seen so far and what lies ahead, I don't know if I would give up Cutler for anything in fantasy.
 
I think this might finally be the week we see overreaction hurt the public bettors. I'm looking at Tampa, StL (eek!), and Minnesota.
 
Guys we should look into some overs this week--

Anyone think this makes sense?

Whoever is playing Denver and Sandiego, their team totals could easily go over their total. Teams that play Denver and Sandiego are forced to open it up and pass the ball. This results in very high scoring games.

The kickoff coverage has been atrocios this year. In many games there is an easy 7 points off a returned TD-

teams are starting at the 30 easily, as some teams cannot cover kicks, and it seems the returners are really fast these days.

Also coaches are passing, passing, GRIESE with 69 pass attempts? WIth this much passing games are going to go over no doubts about that-

New Orleans-Denver-SanDiego when they play another good offense are all over teams-- New Orleans never runs and throws a lot of deep passes-

Denver same thing they throw deep a lot-

I think we can hit some teams over bigtime
 
great info you guys...nut, regarding that vikings play...i like a lot of what you had to say, but one thing i do disagree with you on is that car is a playoff team...i obviously have them rated a lot lower than you do. no idea where that charger win came from, but i just see all kinds of flaws on this panthers team. secondary is horrible and their offense hasn't impressed me at all...i got the season win total under 7.5...so obviously linesmakers didn't see them as a playoff team before the year started either.

minn will surely be able to stuff the run, but i think tenn's defense is >>>>> car's defense. had minny overrated coming into the season, but i had them vs car...think they still have a huge homefield there and will probably be a team that's a lot different home/away. to me, who is biased because i had gb in that game, your numbers are solid info, but it seems to me like they are kind of a stretch (don't know if that's the right word choice)...i never was really too worried about my gb wager...i think that's the way the game had to go; i mean minny's no pushover, it was a rivalry game, and obviously you want to keep rodgers close to the chest in that situation...i don't know, definitely more my opinion, but i just don't think that minny should have won the game. minny's weakness if obviously the pass, and i think tenn will be able to take advantage enough to win the game as kerry can put the ball wherever he wants. think this offense is better with him at qb versus the way they were using vy. i really don't care how gus played vs carolina, in my mind, i don't know how they're not going to have confidence in going with an 8 man front, which is my next disagreement. i don't think gus is as good as garrard or shaub, and the slaton reference was a different kind of defensive strategy because i don't think you can play an 8 man front in that game. minny defense is good no doubt, but top ranked defense is a stretch to me...not a huge stretch, but a stretch. i think they still have work to do in defending the pass. i don't have faith in car's offense or delhomme at all (which obviously stems from a previous disagreement we have haha), indy is obviously doing a lot of retooling and scrambling around in their passing game -- number one receiver for years not only isn't the same, but borderline ineffective, and rodgers had his first career start...i think they've dodged a couple of bullets as far as their pass defense is concerned. tenny is far from world beaters through the air, but i expect them to have more success than minny does in this matchup. minny BETTER have the rushing edge or this one could get out of hand imo...this is a playoff defense that can force gus into mistakes and i think be able to score the ball with the matchups on offense. minny's best chance to win is eat clock and run the football, which is tough to do on the road.

looks like we disagree in our assessments so far of minn, tenn, sd, and car...but i am on sf, wash, houston so we tend to agree there...gl nut; and again, great stuff there-both the parts i agree and disagree with
 
SF_capper said:
ooooooh....hey SN. just found out- down 2 in the 2nd Q, Houston DID NOT go for two to tie it. they botched a snap for the extra point, but the boxscores say 'player' rushed for no gain. damn..
Click to expand...


Okay thanks . My apologies to the Houston HC then. Still a huge play in the game though . Cause when they were down 12 and went for it instead of taking the easy 3 pts it would have actually been an 11 pt game so the FG made sense....Actually restores faith in the coaching staff for me and is a positive now IMO ...I wouldnt wont to get fucked on a boneheaded play call:cheers:
 
broadwayjoe said:
great info you guys...nut, regarding that vikings play...i like a lot of what you had to say, but one thing i do disagree with you on is that car is a playoff team...i obviously have them rated a lot lower than you do. no idea where that charger win came from, but i just see all kinds of flaws on this panthers team. secondary is horrible and their offense hasn't impressed me at all...i got the season win total under 7.5...so obviously linesmakers didn't see them as a playoff team before the year started either.

minn will surely be able to stuff the run, but i think tenn's defense is >>>>> car's defense. had minny overrated coming into the season, but i had them vs car...think they still have a huge homefield there and will probably be a team that's a lot different home/away. to me, who is biased because i had gb in that game, your numbers are solid info, but it seems to me like they are kind of a stretch (don't know if that's the right word choice)...i never was really too worried about my gb wager...i think that's the way the game had to go; i mean minny's no pushover, it was a rivalry game, and obviously you want to keep rodgers close to the chest in that situation...i don't know, definitely more my opinion, but i just don't think that minny should have won the game. minny's weakness if obviously the pass, and i think tenn will be able to take advantage enough to win the game as kerry can put the ball wherever he wants. think this offense is better with him at qb versus the way they were using vy. i really don't care how gus played vs carolina, in my mind, i don't know how they're not going to have confidence in going with an 8 man front, which is my next disagreement. i don't think gus is as good as garrard or shaub, and the slaton reference was a different kind of defensive strategy because i don't think you can play an 8 man front in that game. minny defense is good no doubt, but top ranked defense is a stretch to me...not a huge stretch, but a stretch. i think they still have work to do in defending the pass. i don't have faith in car's offense or delhomme at all (which obviously stems from a previous disagreement we have haha), indy is obviously doing a lot of retooling and scrambling around in their passing game -- number one receiver for years not only isn't the same, but borderline ineffective, and rodgers had his first career start...i think they've dodged a couple of bullets as far as their pass defense is concerned. tenny is far from world beaters through the air, but i expect them to have more success than minny does in this matchup. minny BETTER have the rushing edge or this one could get out of hand imo...this is a playoff defense that can force gus into mistakes and i think be able to score the ball with the matchups on offense. minny's best chance to win is eat clock and run the football, which is tough to do on the road.

looks like we disagree in our assessments so far of minn, tenn, sd, and car...but i am on sf, wash, houston so we tend to agree there...gl nut; and again, great stuff there-both the parts i agree and disagree with
Click to expand...

hey Joe ,

Not something I mean literally. Not sure what I wrote exactly but mean they are a team who is capable of being in the playoffs not that they will or deserve to be there. There basically on the same plain as Jax IMO .

Tennys defense is definetly better then Carolina's no doubt IMO . Just think Minnys defense is the best in the league right now even on the road vs a medicore offense.

I pounded the ever loving shit out of GB that game to open the season. I never said I took Minny and pretty sure I posted a strong play on GB somewhere. I am only saying for what IMO was an easy win it wasnt as easy as it should have been as GB had to work real hard IMO to get it . GB always had them at arms distance I agree. I just make mental notes of situations I see as easy and teams dont crush there opponent like they should.

So I never said MInny should have won. Our signals are crossed on that one.

Minny has work to do defending the pass I certainly agree . My feeling though is @ GB , vs Indy and vs Carolina are all tougher tests then @ Tenny passing attack.


:cheers:Hope that gets on the same page regardless of side ..
 
and I know sum1 will come in and say al harris is overrated, but overrated is way better than bad. Very key for GB defense.
 
I guess I thought the Harris injury was common knowledge . Knew he was out for awhile and probably the rest of 2008. Not that it wasnt concerning but Bigby's absence was more important IMO and now coupled with Collins looking very questionable to doubtful its what I meant by GB being so banged up after Dallas on defense its hard NOT to like the Bucs here even though I am not a fan of there team. Well I am a closet Bucs fan but ya know what I mean...
 
SportsNut said:
hey Joe ,

Not something I mean literally. Not sure what I wrote exactly but mean they are a team who is capable of being in the playoffs not that they will or deserve to be there. There basically on the same plain as Jax IMO .

Tennys defense is definetly better then Carolina's no doubt IMO . Just think Minnys defense is the best in the league right now even on the road vs a medicore offense.

I pounded the ever loving shit out of GB that game to open the season. I never said I took Minny and pretty sure I posted a strong play on GB somewhere. I am only saying for what IMO was an easy win it wasnt as easy as it should have been as GB had to work real hard IMO to get it . GB always had them at arms distance I agree. I just make mental notes of situations I see as easy and teams dont crush there opponent like they should.

So I never said MInny should have won. Our signals are crossed on that one.

Minny has work to do defending the pass I certainly agree . My feeling though is @ GB , vs Indy and vs Carolina are all tougher tests then @ Tenny passing attack.


:cheers:Hope that gets on the same page regardless of side ..
Click to expand...

thanks for clearing that up nut...i had seen those minn/gb numbers as a part of building your minn case, and thought you were implying that...i got ya now. as for the car thing, it seemed that you were trying to build a case for minn's sos translating into this game, but now i see your point on comparing the passing offenses as a whole. i still think that i have car rated lower than you, because i think they're worse than jax, but i see your point as it relates to this game

should be an excellent game and a telling game for which directions these two teams go...my winning percentage has always been much lower picking favs, so you probably have a great shot at this one haha...gl bud
 
broadwayjoe said:
thanks for clearing that up nut...i had seen those minn/gb numbers as a part of building your minn case, and thought you were implying that...i got ya now. as for the car thing, it seemed that you were trying to build a case for minn's sos translating into this game, but now i see your point on comparing the passing offenses as a whole. i still think that i have car rated lower than you, because i think they're worse than jax, but i see your point as it relates to this game

should be an excellent game and a telling game for which directions these two teams go...my winning percentage has always been much lower picking favs, so you probably have a great shot at this one haha...gl bud
Click to expand...

BOL Joe . We are all friends here just stating my case and the step by step logic that went through my head for the game. I dont have a clear cut way of looking at things just go with what my first immediate thought is when I look at a game or opion or a perception (Thanks JPicks for helping me get back to that !) . I had GB in the opener and thought Minny played fairly well considering Tavaris Jackson missed so much time in the preseason and was the type of QB who I would expect not to be able to afford that especially when your team signed a new FA WR . So I expected rust from the offense and basically got what I expected out of the defense . Although I did expect less big play success from GB . Thought the Minny 2nd H was going to role into the Indy game and it really didnt . For as much as Indy is struggling with OL , Clarks injury and Manning missing camp I still think for 3 quarters the Minny defense was very good and still even in the 4th it did a very good job trying to hold Indy off . Except the offense put them in tough spots to succeed.

I rolled with Minny last week pretty strong as well because again there defense was just going to make it easier for them to "outscore" Carolina whether it was 14-10 or 24-17 ...Not of fan of them myself as think they are a medicore team on both sides of the ball with a couple impact players sprinkled in . As far as Jax and Car better or worse all relative to me just I tend to lump teams in together . So IMO they seem like teams of very similiar talent level .

In the end I think Minny has played tougher teams and showed better in those games then Tenny has vs weaker teams despite going 3-0 . I do feel very confident looking at Jax that there RBs where not full healthy in week 1 . Without them they simply had little chance to win as even Porter wasand still is OUT . The Tenny defense was less then impressive IMO vs Houston who looked like it could trade scores with Tenny if it had to . I am at least IMO trying not to weigh 1 specific angle to much just a little bit of each ......

No winners or losers until Sunday . While I like this alot its still just one of many plays .......

GL !! Certainly enjoy the intelligent discussions pro and con on this game and slate from everyone . :cheers:

 
On another note seems to be alot of attractive dogs this week . I really am starting to like the Bears here as well . They really just played IMO a sloppy game and have barely lost 2 games by FGs . Oh and they catch a FG now at home . Philly defense has looked good vs weak offenses (sorry Pitt and AG) which is gonna make this one interesting because I dont think the Eagle offense has done much outside of the Rams game to impress . Now its has some injuries as well. Utter sloppiness from CHI on Sunday which really fucked me busting a 4 team parlay with Bears ML. Anyway I think some good things happened in this game and really could see this being another 3 pt game wither way. So +3.5 is very enticing ....will have more on this game later .......

As much as look at this like good a spot for STL cant get WisePlayer's thoughts on his rams in the early going out of my head . Then you hear about all the BS surrouning the team which is supposedly unhappy with the Bulger benching . Well Stephen Jackson is unhappy but he also said he will run it 40x the other day if thats what the offense needs to do for Green. I lhad like Avery getting into the starting lineup . Whether he does anything was of little concern because Dane Looker was not going to do a damn thing. Also Leonard Little's return even for just passing downs was a huge plus. Buffalo is simply not the type team I want to lay 8 pts with on the road especially after having to fly west after sneaking by Oakland. For all the CRAP STL has displayed in 08 one thing stands out is even though it some plays out of there ASS STL was down just 1 TD to the World Champion Giants with about 10 to play in the game ......on the road Horror show but its not on the road now is it ....So the I hate Scott Linehan and Linehan has lost this team comments from WISEPLAYER have certainly appeared to be right on point ....Cautious here still leaning STL but just leaning not leaping .......


TB v GB has me all over the place. GB secondary issues are of huge concern but they were giftwrapped that Bears win ....work to do still......

Also if Stallworth plays CLE becomes very interesting as I do think in general CLE is slightily better then Cincy . AT +3.5 or above a game which very well could be decided by 3 points ........

Still no matter how you SLICE it and maybe Oregon State will make some do a double take I really like KC +10 but also think around +400 the ML has a real chance of hitting here . Chances are DEN escapes IMO with a late FG or by 3 points but not sure if they can pull out 3 close wins .....if its close I am thinking the ball bounces against them finally ........

:cheers:
 
i have some questions this week....

i knew the chiefs were bad, real bad coming into this year. we know that. that being said, how long are the broncos going to be overrated because of 2 very solid performances and a great offensive week 3 outing? will their flaws on defense catch up to them like it did last week, but in a losing cause? the line was inflated vs the saints and it's inflated this week, i think by about a fg. i'm not ready to back the chiefs because of the chiefs, not because of the broncos, but when the broncos win this week, will their 4-0 week 5 line be inflated as well???

can either the browns or the bengals find their offense this week? i believe so, and i think both teams are thinking that this week is just what they need to break out of their offensive funk....however, i think the browns being 3.5 pt dogs is overreacting a bit...they were 3 pt favs in a horrible spot last year at cinci (and i was on cinci)...lots of factors favor the browns here imo...but we'll see. also might take the bait on the over. i feel i can anticipate things that are usually dangerous to anticipate because of the details of which i follow my team...but again, we'll see

can the texans get a big win on the road? i hope so, but a bigtime trend to duck here i think if they do...

can the cards win out east? will spending the entire week help them? will the vastly overrated jets be able to bounce back on a short week? who's the better team? is either playoff worthy? my answers at this point would be "no" or "neither" to each, which is why i'm not on this game

can the saints stop the niners/how well does this defense matchup? can they again hide their injuries at home? can the niners keep up their fast start on offense? are they the real deal?

can the panthers stop the run at home here? will ryan begin a theme for this year of struggling on the road? how do these teams get to 40? do the panthers deserve to be laying this much with that offense?

lots of ?s already discussed in minn/tenn

for whatever reason, i don't think we learn anything from the gb/tb matchup regardless of who wins...tossup game that will involve luck one way or another...

the bills have been underrated, but has that changed? do they deserve to be laying more than a td? looked last week that it was premature giving them the task of covering a big spread, will that continue into this week on the road? will the qb change mean anything? will there be any fans there?

will this charger team continue their slide defensively, or will their offense overcome their defensive weaknesses enough on a short week to cover this number? how will the raiders' players respond to that heartbreaking loss in a game that would have brought them to 2-1...and in a week where internal chaos is the theme?

will wash be able to score? will they be able to get pressure? if so even to a small extent, why in the world would this line be double digits in a rivalry game?

have the eagles done enough in the last 3 games to be favored on the road in this situation against a tough defense in a tough environment? can the bears offense make enough plays to stay on the field?

do the steelers bounce back and continue their mnf home dominance? how will flacco do in his first time in a big spotlight nfl game against division rivals? are the ravens getting too much credit at this point? will the steelers oline be able to hold up?


these are questions that i will look to answer going into the second quarter of the season...any other situations to keep an eye on?
 
I can say that is some good shit Joe . Many things I am pondering myself on each game .

the whole staying East thing for Zona is probably something you cant account for . As it will be different for every team that does so . Some it will be hepful and others not so much . My feeling its tough to make something positive or negative about it . Is the etam more distracted being away for 2 weeks as these gusy win or lose are on a flight home every Sunday night . Do they feel more comfortable getting settled in on the East for this period now.

As far as CLE goes Stallworth playing IMO will a huge asset to the offense . Not so much because of how I would grade him but because its just a much needed option in the offense . Look at how easily Lee Evans gets taken out of games by good defenses . Just 1 quality NFL WR doesnt cut it today ......
 
broadwayjoe said:
i have some questions this week....

can the texans get a big win on the road? i hope so, but a bigtime trend to duck here i think if they do...
Click to expand...

HOUSTON TEXANS AWAY:

I think that trend your referring to is them being 0-5 on the road in their last 5 getting outscored 162 to 81. (Exactly double! Ouch) Or how about them going 2-8 SU on the road in their last 10?

Not sure what the spreads where for those last 10 games, but I doubt Vegas was giving them the points they lost by:

10, 20, 25, 20, 8, 23, 21, and 19. Those are huge deficits.

Maybe its because they're converting only 27% of third downs on the road.

Matt Shuab on the road:

60% completions
170yd average
3 TDs / 7 INTs

Hmm. :4_12_12: I know...:4_12_13: FADE HOUSTON on the road.

:animated-Dead12:
 
broadwayjoe said:
i have some questions this week....

i knew the chiefs were bad, real bad coming into this year. we know that. that being said, how long are the broncos going to be overrated because of 2 very solid performances and a great offensive week 3 outing? will their flaws on defense catch up to them like it did last week, but in a losing cause? the line was inflated vs the saints and it's inflated this week, i think by about a fg. i'm not ready to back the chiefs because of the chiefs, not because of the broncos, but when the broncos win this week, will their 4-0 week 5 line be inflated as well???

Joe Denver has showed us they can and will score at will. I think the line may be inflated, but you lay a 6 out there and they get 90% of the money on Denver.

can either the browns or the bengals find their offense this week? i believe so, and i think both teams are thinking that this week is just what they need to break out of their offensive funk....however, i think the browns being 3.5 pt dogs is overreacting a bit...they were 3 pt favs in a horrible spot last year at cinci (and i was on cinci)...lots of factors favor the browns here imo...but we'll see. also might take the bait on the over. i feel i can anticipate things that are usually dangerous to anticipate because of the details of which i follow my team...but again, we'll see

Shootout, both teams need to get there offenses going, and what a game to do it, because both defenses haven't shown the ability to stop anyone yet this year. DA has alot riding on this game. I think 85 might actually show up in this one as well.

can the texans get a big win on the road? i hope so, but a bigtime trend to duck here i think if they do...

Offense has struggled, Slaton looked last week though. No real opinion on this game.

can the cards win out east? will spending the entire week help them? will the vastly overrated jets be able to bounce back on a short week? who's the better team? is either playoff worthy? my answers at this point would be "no" or "neither" to each, which is why i'm not on this game

agree with your logic here, and I hope Mangini opens up the playbook and lets the old gun slinger show what he can do. both qbs could have monster games...playing the over in this one.

can the saints stop the niners/how well does this defense matchup? can they again hide their injuries at home? can the niners keep up their fast start on offense? are they the real deal?

see above.

can the panthers stop the run at home here? will ryan begin a theme for this year of struggling on the road? how do these teams get to 40? do the panthers deserve to be laying this much with that offense?

once again agree with your points. im leaning hard on the TT under for Atlanta. Carolina held AP pretty quiet last weekend.

lots of ?s already discussed in minn/tenn

for whatever reason, i don't think we learn anything from the gb/tb matchup regardless of who wins...tossup game that will involve luck one way or another...

alot of questions with gb secondary. TB should take Dallas que and rush rodgers alot.

the bills have been underrated, but has that changed? do they deserve to be laying more than a td? looked last week that it was premature giving them the task of covering a big spread, will that continue into this week on the road? will the qb change mean anything? will there be any fans there?

I dont think so. Tough game to call. had a feeling we see St. Louis pick up a win here. i think qb changes always give fans a chance for hope...look at minny last week. anyhting is possible.

will this charger team continue their slide defensively, or will their offense overcome their defensive weaknesses enough on a short week to cover this number? how will the raiders' players respond to that heartbreaking loss in a game that would have brought them to 2-1...and in a week where internal chaos is the theme?

i truly believe after watching that monday night game, sd felt they got screwed and rightfully so in the denver game. for some reaosn i have a feeling this team plays with a chip on there shoulder the rest of the year.

will wash be able to score? will they be able to get pressure? if so even to a small extent, why in the world would this line be double digits in a rivalry game?

Vegas believes Dal is this years NE. Can and will score whenever wherever they please


have the eagles done enough in the last 3 games to be favored on the road in this situation against a tough defense in a tough environment? can the bears offense make enough plays to stay on the field?

how do the bears bounceback after they let a team come back 2 weeks in a row. no closing ability with this team, and if they get behind early, there screwed.

do the steelers bounce back and continue their mnf home dominance? how will flacco do in his first time in a big spotlight nfl game against division rivals? are the ravens getting too much credit at this point? will the steelers oline be able to hold up?

no real opinion, but not putting my faith in a rookie qb on the road in a spotlight game.


these are questions that i will look to answer going into the second quarter of the season...any other situations to keep an eye on?
Click to expand...

:cheers:
 
great stuff marlo; thanks for the insight...

that's a good question to see how gb secondary responds...true. thought that this was probably the sharpest of all the lines, because these teams are just about even right now..i'd give a very slight edge (1-2 pts) to gb and factoring in homefield i come up with tb -1-2, and it's sitting at -1.5..i can't really see either team winning by a td or more, so it may be a good teaser option for you teaser people, but i don't know how you build a great case for either side here..
 
xxDaJackaLxx said:
HOUSTON TEXANS AWAY:

I think that trend your referring to is them being 0-5 on the road in their last 5 getting outscored 162 to 81. (Exactly double! Ouch) Or how about them going 2-8 SU on the road in their last 10?

Not sure what the spreads where for those last 10 games, but I doubt Vegas was giving them the points they lost by:

10, 20, 25, 20, 8, 23, 21, and 19. Those are huge deficits.

Maybe its because they're converting only 27% of third downs on the road.

Matt Shuab on the road:

60% completions
170yd average
3 TDs / 7 INTs

Hmm. :4_12_12: I know...:4_12_13: FADE HOUSTON on the road.

:animated-Dead12:
Click to expand...

was hopin someone would help me with that...couldnt' remember exactly what that was....wow. powerful. hopefully they can overcome that this one week for my +9/+310 wagers hahahha
 
broadwayjoe said:
was hopin someone would help me with that...couldnt' remember exactly what that was....wow. powerful. hopefully they can overcome that this one week for my +9/+310 wagers hahahha
Click to expand...


Well, I took Jax at -7. So lets hope for a 28-20 win by the Jags. :shake:
 
Running back Steven Jackson declined to discuss the issue Friday. But on his local radio show Thursday night, Jackson said he didn't like the decision to bench Bulger, and said others in the locker room agreed with him.
 
"sharps report" courtesy of redskinsnut

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Not much interest at the early line of 9.5. Sharps tend to look at underdogs at this price, particularly home underdogs in divisional games. That doesn't always work, but it works more than it doesn't. The ugly home team catches a flat favorite napping. Sharps are hoping the public bets the line up to 10. Oddsmakers know the sharps are waiting for that to happen, so they might just keep the line at 9.5 and root for the home dog themselves. Sportsbooks take positions in games more often than is commonly acknowledged. They learned that from booking years of sharp action! The total is hanging round 46.5 and 47. The announcement that Kansas City was changing quarterbacks didn't cause any movement...but may have encouraged the books to take a position on the hosts.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We saw a big jump to the Over here. The total opened at 42, and has been bet up to 44.5 or 45 as I write this. I can understand the move. These teams are known to play high scoring games against each other. Their current stats are artificially lowered because of games against Baltimore...and that one Cleveland played in bad weather against Pittsburgh. I think the oddsmakers missed this one pretty badly on the opener. I can see why it was pounded. Cincinnati got a lot of love at -3. The line is now -3.5. This tells you the sharps really like the favorite and acted early. If they liked the dog they would have waited until the weekend hoping the public drove the line to 3.5. Anyone liking the dog would go ahead and act at +3.5. It isn't happening.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here's another total that jumped from the opener. It started at 39, and is now up to 42. Houston's not playing much defense this year, so I could see why the sharps liked that. The Jaguars also opened things up last week in a win at Indianapolis that went Over. The team side is sitting at Jacksonville by 7. There were 7.5's for a few days. You regulars know that's a key number for basic strategy teaser plays. Sportsbooks are wary of that (particularly offshore). And, news reports about injuries to the Jaguars encouraged some Houston money too. Sportsbooks were much happier sitting at 7 than 7.5 in this game because of how the money was coming down.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ARIZONA AT NY JETS: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is a game that was also in the teaser window for awhile. The Jets were -1.5 for a few days. That means you could take Arizona in two-team six-point teasers and cross by the 3 and the 7. The line has come down to Jets -1. I'm hearing a few sharps who like Arizona to win this game outright...so this is another case where both teaser and team side money influenced a line move. Nobody was betting the Jets out of the gate. The public might this weekend because they love getting Brett Favre cheap. That may be wearing off though given his poor start. Nothing much is happening with the total. Weather might change that. There's a chance for rain in the Northeast this weekend. Look for the number to come down if it's going to be rainy or windy at the Meadowlands.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SAN FRANCISCO AT NEW ORLEANS: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A lot of action here. The total opened at 51 and came down to 48.5. I have to say that surprised me because New Orleans looks like a team that will play a lot of high scoring games again this year. I asked some sharps about it. As best I can tell this a math play from the computer guys more than anything else. Few NFL games grade out in the 50's any more, so sharps look to go Under any number that high. San Francisco got a lot of early respect too. They opened +6 but are now down to +4.5. That win over Detroit impressed some people last week. And, the New Orleans defense never impresses anyone! San Francisco can be like a home team in Las Vegas and Reno in their good years. Sportsbooks are hoping for good things for the Niners because that will increase traffic to the casinos on Sundays. If you've ever been out here on an NFL Sunday, you know there are a lot of Raiders and 49ers fans in the crowds.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ATLANTA AT CAROLINA: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The sharps made an early move on the dog. Atlanta opened at +7.5. I'm now seeing +7's and +6.5's out there. Seven is a critical number, so we're talking serious play on the dog if it stays below that number. Carolina's offense has looked really bad since the upset of San Diego. Atlanta is 2-1, and is at least showing enough offense to hang within a TD in the minds of the sharps. Remember, they bet at +7.5 early to get full value. A few more bet at +7 afraid that they'd lose the full touchdown. And, I should mention that there was probably some teaser money on Carolina at the early 7.5 mark. It's possible for sharps to love a team side +7.5, but the other team in the teaser at -1.5 because of the way the percentages work out. The 3 and 7 are that common for final results. It's going to be a continuing theme all year...lines moving out of the teaser windows.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MINNESOTA AT TENNESSEE: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The money so far has come in on the dog, but not enough to move the line off of Tennessee -3. Sportsbooks were afraid that people would hit undefeated Tennessee at home at the field goal price, so there was some extra juice added on the favorite at first. Sharps took the plus juice and the dog, so the line has come down to -110 either way at three. This is definitely such an evenly matched game that we won't see a move off the field goal unless something huge happens late. Tennessee -2.5 or Minnesota +3.5 would generate heavy one-sided action because field goal results are so common. For now, be aware that the sharps prefer the dog, but aren't really acting much at -110. The total has come down from 36.5 to 35.5 because of the defensive quality on the field.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]GREEN BAY AT TAMPA BAY: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Tampa Bay opened at -1.5, which is now down to -1. Again, we see a game moving out of the teaser window. This one looks a lot like Arizona/NY Jets. The prices are the same, and there's generally more affection for the road dog than the home favorite. Green Bay looked good enough before the Dallas game that they're still seen as the better team here in Vegas. The total went up from 42 to 43. Both teams played Overs last week.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]BUFFALO AT ST. LOUIS: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Unlike the Denver/Kansas City game that has been sitting at the opener all week, this big road favorite got bet down quickly. Buffalo opened at 9.5, but is now just -8. Interestingly, that's in the teaser window and not getting affected. This might be telling you that oddsmakers are expecting personnel changes with St. Louis to set up some upset potential. More likely, they're not sold that Buffalo is as good as its record. Buffalo/Oakland was the main early TV game out here last week because of all the Oakland fans in the area. The Bills didn't look ready to lay big chalk in that game. That may have influenced early sharp betting, and taken some of the enthusiasm from teaser players too. I'm seeing anywhere from 41.5 to 43 on totals as I write this...which means something may be happening right when I'm writing! You don't normally see such variety these days.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SAN DIEGO AT OAKLAND: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This one is shaping up to be pretty interesting this weekend. San Diego opened at -7, and is now sitting at -7.5. The Chargers look like they have their act together. And, they were robbed of a road win at Denver...which is the same Denver team that crushed Oakland on this field. So, it's possible to make a math case for San Diego...it's likely too that the public will come in on San Diego over the weekend because of that...and the Chargers are currently sitting in the teaser window. If you can make a math case at 7.5, than -1.5 in teasers is going to look great to people. The problem is, sharps generally like divisional home underdogs because they figure to get peak intensity from the lesser team. You'll be seeing sharps who want to take Oakland plus the points, and San Diego in teasers. They'll have to walk that tightrope creatively to get the best value on both props.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WASHINGTON AT DALLAS: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We may see a return of a strategy that many sharps used with New England last year. Dallas is seen as the most explosive team in the NFL right now, particularly off a big nationally televised victory. The public is going to bet them at most any price. I expect sharps to bet any Dallas opener to try and set up middles. If they like Dallas (which is relatively rare because sharps want to go against public teams), they'll buy back less on the dog later when setting up their middle. If they like the dog, (which will be even more likely if the public does move the line up significantly), they'll come back over the top just before kickoff. Here, Dallas opened at -10.5 and went up to -11 early. I'm not hearing that the sharps love Dallas. I'm hearing they're looking to come back over the top late Sunday. The total has come down from 47 to 46, as sharps expect the Washington defense to play a big role here. The total coming down is kind of a Washington bet too, which helps you see the true sentiment of the market movers.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PHILADELPHIA AT CHICAGO: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Big move here, as the sharps are really impressed with what they're seeing from Philadelphia this season. The oddsmakers knew that, and thought an opener of Philly -2 on the road would counteract the sentiment. Wrong! The Eagles have been hit hard, with the line now up to -3, -120 or -125. The sportsbooks are very afraid of moving the number to -3.5 and getting middled by sharps who play back on the dog. This is a big stand on Philadelphia by the sharps, many of whom tell me they have Philly as one of the best few teams in the league right now. The total has come down from 43 to 40.5, which tells you that the sharps are impressed with what they're seeing defensively from the Eagles. Well, some of that is probably anti-Kyle Orton sentiment as well.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH: [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I have to admit this one surprised me. Pittsburgh was -7 at the opener, and is down to -5.5 as I write this. There's a sportsbook in Las Vegas that puts up lines about 11 days in advance of the games for limited action. That number was around -10 or -11 last week in this game. So, the opener came way down from that, AND the sharps still bet the dog! I'm reading this as sentiment that Ben Roethlisberger is more banged up than is being publicly reported. The sharps aren't raving about Baltimore QB rookie Joe Flacco. So, this is a vote for Baltimore's defense against the suddenly struggling Pittsburgh offense in my view.[/FONT]
Click to expand...
 
brewer said:
Running back Steven Jackson declined to discuss the issue Friday. But on his local radio show Thursday night, Jackson said he didn't like the decision to bench Bulger, and said others in the locker room agreed with him.
Click to expand...

The one thing scaring me . However now that its out in the open might be a good thing . STL players cant tank it IMO because it will be a reflection on them indivually . They have voiced there opinion about the coach and WISEPLAYER was correct they dont like him and dont want to play him but are they the only workers who hate there boss and even dread going to work ?????? AT the moment think this is actually a good thing and I am sure of a relief that it is out in the open and being discussed . Remember something similiar happened to the Giants so you never know what comes out of it . I do NOT believe the Rams players dont give a good effort though as they owe to there fans . However it could be a different story on the road when they dont have that motivation . Which could be why they were blasted in both road games . I do recall during the Philly game the sideline reporter talking about STL nonchalant attitude during the game....

Really important story IMO (well thats obvious I guess ):cheers:
 
1PM starts : (MLs are just small value stabs ....usually want at least 2 to 1 or not worth it usually IMO .....)

KC +10 , +10.5 and ML :
Yes , the Cheifs are a bad team. However they have IMO played 2 quality games of 3 and while the OAK was not a close final it also was a more competitive game then that indicates. The OAK game was a disaster as they lost the top 2 QBs on there dpth chart in consecutive weeks and simply were lost on offense. I feel this team is getting its act together . I feel people are looking at the game @ ATL in the wrong manner . What KC did specifically on offense was NOT IMO down because the game was a blowout. Simply cause it wasnt a blowout once KC got onthe board 24-7 game to start the 3rd is not a blowout and KC took the 1st possession down the field . They had little threat of a passing game check the QB stats and still ran the ball very well . They failed to make a couple key plays such as Novaks missed 31yd FG and he does concern me but as LJ getting stuffed 4th and goal. This was a very competitive game once KC got on the board before half . It was competitive for about 3/4 of the first quarter so it was just the last few minutes of Q1 and most of Q2 were it was ugly . KC will allow big play son defense and I thought overall there defense didnt play poorly in the 1st H but tackled poorly ......

The key with DEN is the offense has piled up alot of yards but also had terrrible red zone turnovers and struggled to score in 2nd Hs. In both games they were aided by the opposing offenses for either direct scoes or very short fields . Huard is a capable NFL QB and the best KC has to offer and he should be there starter . DEN offense has scored less and less each game . I see no reason why KC cant score 20 something here ...it will not be as easy as some think to move it on KC. Oak had there head up there ass in week 1 it was indicative of anything for OAK or DEN IMO .

I truly feel that KC has a legit chance to win this game SU. Its a divisional game in one of the hardest places to play and what is different now is making a team 10 pt dogs GIVES Them that true underdog mentality . DEN should have lost weeks 2 and 3 based on there play . Did the offense make a key play when it needed to in a close game ????Look it at they really didnt in consecutive weeks at home. SD is a good team but they had hobbled LT and Gates as well as being off a stunning loss and tarditional slow starters . Since the half of that game they have looked like a different team . NO was playing with a banged up defense with a special teamer starting at LB and secondary riddled with injuries . Oh yeah there stud WR was absent in COlsten and there #2 was hurt during the game ....lets not glorify the Saints .....

Vikings +3.5 :

Actually just prefer the +3.5 not interested in the ML . Of course I think they win but feel the safety net of a FG is important as well.....I have said alot about this game on the board ....My opinion is this records are almost as useless as stats ...Minny has played better competition very well imo while Tenny has faced only weak competition IMO and not played so well outside of there defense which was facing weak or inconsistent offenses .....

Simply put Minny is the better defense IMO . There secondary has had issues and the stats vs the pass are blah but if you cant run it you have only one option and thats to throw it . Collins can wing it but the WRs are the issue in Tenny ...Minny is the better offense as well as I rate the QBs a wash both edges to WR and RB go to the Vikes IMO but slightily ........

49ers +6 ..I grabbed this early in the week like many others did ....I just expect a FG here and propbably think a FG line is approriate . SF has played solid ball from week 1 on and expect it to continue. O'Sullivan can play ...just think @ SEA he took 8 sacks and that win didnt impressive much but how they handled DET did ..lots of banged up players in this game on both sides so like the UNDER thinking of alot FG attempts ....

Texans +7.5 , ML.....
Jags getting healthier should make the offense more potent however think Houston offense is potent . They had th chance to score alot @ TEnny but left so many pts off the board and a key missed PAT in teh 2nd Q changed the complexion of the game making it 12 pts rather then 11 ...so they bypassed the FG chance to go for because they were stuck needing 2 TDs or 3 scores mid 3rd quarter .....just see the Jags defense as downa bit they have a member of the secondary out as well .....expect competitive game down to the wire ...

TB ML ....
Really thanks to GB injuries in the secondary....TB will have momentum and confidence from stealing that game @ Chicago ....also weather difference ? Just not sure what the TB forecast is ....but GB got dinged up Sunday night and has to travel to TB now....

Jets ML....
Zona alos looks banged up with Berry , Wilson and Pope making the out or doubtful list .....Jets showed improvement and were just facing a better team a COAST away .....the offense is starting to click and I am sure has some confidence now. Zona really playe d a very even game with WASH IMO but there playmakers seem limitd to Wraner -Boldin and Fitz on offense ...huge game for the Jets other then smoking Miami what has ARIZ done to impress me....a smaller type play that will look at more at HALFTIME .....

4PM -
SD -6.5 -130 ....
OAK best defensive weapon its stud CB has a bad elbow which could hurt him in coverage and he could get pushed around a bit and possible not be able to do much with that arm......McFadden is really hobbled it seems from reports leaving possibly only Bush ...Russell has not shown the ability to move the ball through the air but at least Walker is back ......just think SD has played loads better then teh finals read ........line seems high ? Well SD opened as favs in DENVER and really should have won but even if that game was correct at say a PK I think your saying SD is 4 pts better on a neutral field then DEN and well DEN was small favs @ OAK ....seems to make logical sense ......

Skins +11 .....
Divisional game......I have no doubt that DAL played a crisp game it would blow them out but they havent they always seemed to fuck up .....look at the ending of the GB game ....Barber fumbles inside the 20 ....Romo gave Philly 2 TDs the week before .....so smaller play as well .....DAL defense getting no credit or pub and it SHOULD .....

Rams +8?? Leaning this way ...A Change is a GONNA COME ( sorry Sam Cooke ) in STL . Linehan is on his last leg when he STAR players revolt but also most of the guys just want to play ball and get away from the BS. Expect an inspired performance even though a win could save Linehan's job for another week ...Sometimes the best medicine is simply getting shit off your chest and out in the open.....Bills just not an explosive offense and a medicore or slightily better defense ...hard fought home win and then traveling hurts them situational.....

Bears +3.5 ...Philly banged up .....Bears angry after that loss but showed some ability on offense vs a solid TB defense ....I dont buy the hype vs Pittsburgh .....

Totals -
Over 43 Houston and Jax ....Two inproving offenses as Porter should play here ...one bad defense and another which is not as agood as years past ...expect both to be in the 20's.....

Under 48 SF .....expect more FG attempts then TDs...

looking at GB over but not sure ....dont trust the TB offense much ...

Under 43.5 .....played it before Pamler was announced out but naturally still like it...supposedly CLE was going to be conserative and pound Jamal Lewis ...

Over 47 KC ......seems to obvious so may pass .....wouldnt se suprised if it landed around 43-45....

Under Jets ....

Under SD

Over Rams 43....

Under Wash ......Skins offense didnt do much at home vs Zona and NO was playing with its C team defense if ya know what I mean ....

If not bolded JUST A LEAN on these totals ......

see ya at HALF got some work to do on props and etc.....BOL all





ALSO---ATL @ Car ......very SUSPECT move taking the Panthers off 7 pt favs ...doesnt happen w/o a ton of money so not sure what to make of it .......and staying away for now ....games that I usually get hurt on see NEB and GEORGIA in CFB are ones that move in the 7 spread range .......

:cheers:
 
Thanks Spider . Thats what I was thinking as I set my fantasy lineup and looked what I was starting due to injuries and byes ...

BOL .....
 
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