Week 4 Discussion Thread...

2daBank said:
Think Dallas might be my favorite side for the day games. Seems like a game where zeke gonna run wild on lions shit run defense. Only real concern for me is Lee being out but not as if lions run game poses a real threat. I expect boys will be able to pressure stafford into some mistakes and zeke will handle the offense.
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I think the lions give up 197 yards to zeke or 50. they should stack him up and make dak beat them with his arm. if he doesnt he should scramble for a bunch. gonna go look at daks rushing props now
 
The Farm said:
I think the lions give up 197 yards to zeke or 50. they should stack him up and make dak beat them with his arm. if he doesnt he should scramble for a bunch. gonna go look at daks rushing props now
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Makes a lot of sense. I fully expect zeke to chew up yards even against stacked boxes. Could very well be dak has to loosen them up a little in the early going and like you said if lions come in that committed to stopping zeke it should be easy picking for dak.
 
First division game of the season. I think Pats pour it on early and then let off the gas to try and rest in the 2H to get a jump on Thursday.
 
Capaholic said:
Already posted some Week 4 plays but here are general thoughts:

Rams-Vikes- Lookahead line was 5... Min was obviously hideous and Rams were dominant against a solid team. Lean Rams but a lot of points to lay against a talented squad

Dolphins-Pats: On Pats. This was -9.5 right before kickoff last night. Now you can get a key number at home against a solid Miami team who have beaten 2 bad teams and one mediocre team. If I'm wrong so be it.

Texans-Colts: Colts have been very competitive and Houston has been terrible. Lookahead was Texans -1. If this goes to -3 I may be on Texans just from a numbers perspective.

Bengals- Falcons: Monitor the AJ Green health. If no Green, Falcons should cruise. I have no opinion otherwise

Buffalo-GB: Took GB at 9.5. Mostly 10's everywhere.. You would have had to lay 14.5 last week. Value on GB no matter what your eyes told you this week. In fact, forget everything your eyes told you this week.

Lions-Cowboys: I really want to take Dallas. They are terrible but this is a great fade the Lions spot in my opinion.

Jets-Jags: No real opinion. Not sure if the Jags are that good still, with apologies to VirginiaCavs. Tough one against Giants, Mariota was playing without feeling in his throwing hand and they feasted on a very bad Pats D. On the other hand, the Jets are pretty bad. Is Blaine Gabbert = Sam Darnold? Because you're getting the same spread basically.

Bucs- Bears: Would love for the Bucs to win tonight so it takes this line down and I can whack the Bears at pk or -1.

Eagles-Tenn: No major opinion here. Do not think Tenn is good. Not sure what the Eagles health will be

Seattle- Arizona: No major opinion. Seattle gets close to 4 pts homefield. So are you saying they would be 10 pt favs at home against the Cards? Thats what the line says and they should not be favored by 10 against anyone. Lean Cards

Browns-Raiders: This line bopped around all over the place on BetOnline last night settling in at 3. Could have gotten Oak -1.5 at one point and wish I had. If this dips below 3, I'll bite. Love Baker and love the Browns energy, but the Browns will be a huge public play this week no question

49ers-Chargers: I am not a big Jimmy G guy. Lookahead was 4.5. Is Jimmy almost 6 better than Beathard? I dont think so. Shanny will have packages dialed up to move the ball down the field against a banged up Chargers D. Im on the Niners at 10

Saints-Giants: This should be the Saints, but I'll wait. Lookahead was 3 and its only 3.5 so the market did not overvalue either win much. In fact doesn't look like the gave the Giants much at all for their road win. Keeping an eye on it.

Ravens-Steelers: I don't love either team though I was on the Ravens this past week (more of a Bronco fade). If you like Balt and think TB will win tonight, hit it now. There should be some overreaction either way after tonight.

KC-Denver: I've posted various thoughts each week and this is the first game I am actually betting the Chiefs on the spread. Took them at 3.5 after it opened at 4.5. I do think the public will be on the Chiefs but I think the line will creep back up and then I'm sure some "sharp" money will come back and level it at 4 or so. I don't mean to break it to Bronco fans, but this team isn't that good. Case Keenum continues to look like a product of Zimmer's system when in Minn and is the same Keenum everyone always thought he was. Call it Mahomes hype, but this dude already went up there against this D with no Kelce, no Hill and no Hunt and won..... Now with the full compliment of weapons he has, I don't see the Broncos stopping the Chiefs enough to hang. Bang on the Chiefs D all you want. Watch the games. When your'e up 14, 21, 28 in the second half, you're going to give up chunks, yards, points, etc. The D is not a great group, but not nearly as bad as they would have you think. Chiefs had one bad quarter on D yesterday.. Other 3 let up 0, 10 and 3. With Jax and NE on deck, this divisional game is of great importance to take a 2 game late (plus tiebreakers on both Denver and LAC)

Talk more this week..
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No hard feelings Cap ;) bol as always bro
 
KC has worst defense in league. Denver has 3rd best rushing in league.

Their D is 5th best against run. KC does run well.

Denver pass d is pedestrian and of course kc pass is amazing.

Weather is perfect
 
Last edited:
Johnnyonthespot said:
KC has worst defense in league. Denver has 3rd best rushing in league.

Their D is 5th best against run. KC does run well.

Denver pass d is pedestrian and of course kc pass is amazing.

Weather is perfect
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Really think this a game where donks pass rush will cause mahomes to struggle some. Not like I think they will shut kc down as whenever the rush doesn’t get home im sure kc will take advantage of the secondary but I do think the pass rush will disrupt them enough to give the offense ample opportunity to get a lead. Feel like we should see good Keenam tonight and should be about toughest atmosphere mahomes has seen yet.
 
Last remarks. With my objective glasses on

KC’s defense is bad. Not the worst in the league. Definitely not. I know what DVOA says, I know what the yards say. They have built leads and played soft coverage each of the first 3 games allowing a ton of literally meaningless yards. The key tonight will be stopping the run and controlling the different looks they will try to show with Sanders.

I would be surprised if the Broncos got more than 1 or 2 sacks. Ball will be out quick and the OL is a top 10 unit. Slants and post patterns will be open all night.

Until I saw the sharp money coming in I thought this was a piece of cake. With Jax, NE and Cincy on deck I would be surprised if Reid allows a letdown or gets outcoached by Vance.

Good luck. Lean under. 27-20

*ive been wrong many times before
 
Cap I respect your opinion a ton and while certainly not arguing kc has a strong oline but it gonna be noisy as all hell tonight just think that will help Miller and co get off the ball faster than the oline and lead to sacks. I gotta believe donks will attempt to jump the short stuff in effort to make mahomes hold it little longer and he def likes to run around back there a little, don’t think he will have success doing that a whole lot in this one..

Def agree w under even tho I’m never shocked when kc Games end up in the 60s., this actually 1st game of theirs I havnt played over, guess we see how wise it was to do a 180 and play the under, lol.
 
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