Week 4 Discussion Thread...

Already posted some Week 4 plays but here are general thoughts:

Rams-Vikes- Lookahead line was 5... Min was obviously hideous and Rams were dominant against a solid team. Lean Rams but a lot of points to lay against a talented squad

Dolphins-Pats: On Pats. This was -9.5 right before kickoff last night. Now you can get a key number at home against a solid Miami team who have beaten 2 bad teams and one mediocre team. If I'm wrong so be it.

Texans-Colts: Colts have been very competitive and Houston has been terrible. Lookahead was Texans -1. If this goes to -3 I may be on Texans just from a numbers perspective.

Bengals- Falcons: Monitor the AJ Green health. If no Green, Falcons should cruise. I have no opinion otherwise

Buffalo-GB: Took GB at 9.5. Mostly 10's everywhere.. You would have had to lay 14.5 last week. Value on GB no matter what your eyes told you this week. In fact, forget everything your eyes told you this week.

Lions-Cowboys: I really want to take Dallas. They are terrible but this is a great fade the Lions spot in my opinion.

Jets-Jags: No real opinion. Not sure if the Jags are that good still, with apologies to VirginiaCavs. Tough one against Giants, Mariota was playing without feeling in his throwing hand and they feasted on a very bad Pats D. On the other hand, the Jets are pretty bad. Is Blaine Gabbert = Sam Darnold? Because you're getting the same spread basically.

Bucs- Bears: Would love for the Bucs to win tonight so it takes this line down and I can whack the Bears at pk or -1.

Eagles-Tenn: No major opinion here. Do not think Tenn is good. Not sure what the Eagles health will be

Seattle- Arizona: No major opinion. Seattle gets close to 4 pts homefield. So are you saying they would be 10 pt favs at home against the Cards? Thats what the line says and they should not be favored by 10 against anyone. Lean Cards

Browns-Raiders: This line bopped around all over the place on BetOnline last night settling in at 3. Could have gotten Oak -1.5 at one point and wish I had. If this dips below 3, I'll bite. Love Baker and love the Browns energy, but the Browns will be a huge public play this week no question

49ers-Chargers: I am not a big Jimmy G guy. Lookahead was 4.5. Is Jimmy almost 6 better than Beathard? I dont think so. Shanny will have packages dialed up to move the ball down the field against a banged up Chargers D. Im on the Niners at 10

Saints-Giants: This should be the Saints, but I'll wait. Lookahead was 3 and its only 3.5 so the market did not overvalue either win much. In fact doesn't look like the gave the Giants much at all for their road win. Keeping an eye on it.

Ravens-Steelers: I don't love either team though I was on the Ravens this past week (more of a Bronco fade). If you like Balt and think TB will win tonight, hit it now. There should be some overreaction either way after tonight.

KC-Denver: I've posted various thoughts each week and this is the first game I am actually betting the Chiefs on the spread. Took them at 3.5 after it opened at 4.5. I do think the public will be on the Chiefs but I think the line will creep back up and then I'm sure some "sharp" money will come back and level it at 4 or so. I don't mean to break it to Bronco fans, but this team isn't that good. Case Keenum continues to look like a product of Zimmer's system when in Minn and is the same Keenum everyone always thought he was. Call it Mahomes hype, but this dude already went up there against this D with no Kelce, no Hill and no Hunt and won..... Now with the full compliment of weapons he has, I don't see the Broncos stopping the Chiefs enough to hang. Bang on the Chiefs D all you want. Watch the games. When your'e up 14, 21, 28 in the second half, you're going to give up chunks, yards, points, etc. The D is not a great group, but not nearly as bad as they would have you think. Chiefs had one bad quarter on D yesterday.. Other 3 let up 0, 10 and 3. With Jax and NE on deck, this divisional game is of great importance to take a 2 game late (plus tiebreakers on both Denver and LAC)

Talk more this week..
 
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my initial thoughts (didn't read caps post above yet but im sure its spot on and has much better advice than this)

-Thursday night game is a very good matchup but I will likely not be wagering. The Vikings were my preseason pick to represent the NFC in the SB so to get them at + points seems solid, I just don't wanna get in front of the Rams train right now. I do think the Vikings are going to come to play after the egg they laid yesterday their pride is on the line. They will look to show that it was a fluke. but again, rams at home is tough to fade

Cincy at Atlanta: Cincy has been good to me this year and if they were home I would probably like them, but Atlanta's offense has been really really good after the week 1 clunker. They also have a ton of injuries on d, so this could be an over play

Tampa @ Chicago: Chicago should be 3-0 but forgive me for not being overly impressed. Their QB is their weakness and of all the weaknesses that is the worst one. Gotta love that defense but its not at the early 2000s Bucs or Ravens level where they could win in spite of a bad offense. Also have to see how Tampa looks tonight.

Detroit @ Dallas: letdown spot for the lions. Really though to bet on the boys right now though. IDK, im not loving this card so far.

Buffalo @ GB: Love the packers here. I am going to write yesterday off as a fluke; the bills still suck. Josh Allen in lambeau. Think order is restored in the universe and the Bills get rolled

Houston @ Indy: woof. indy or nothing but probably nothing

Jets at Jags: Think Jags rebount after a real bad game. Rookie on the road against an elite defense. 8 is a lot to lay with jacksonvilles offense. maybe a teaser? I actually think you could tease this one either way

Miami @ NE: I saw Caps thoughts in his thread but honestly the pats just look bad and slow while the dolphins have looked the exact opposite. its easy to write tehm off as a fluky 3-0 but they are 11-1 in their last 12 games that Tannehill starts. I'm not so sure they aren't legit and I lean towards taking the points

Cleveland @ Oakland: this may be square af but cleveland is the better team here and they looked very legit with Baker. Playing in Oakland is really tough though let alone for a guy in his first NFL start. Maybe this is a stay away & hope Baker struggles and u get good value week 5 home vs Baltimore which could be a pounder

Seattle @ Zona: ugh, another real weak one. if the cards start rosen I think I will be on them as home dogs. seattle is not good

New Orleans @ NY just feels like a NO clunker. I really hate the Giants but might have no choice but to take them at +3.5

SF at LAC I have no feel for, it can't be good for a team to go on the road after losing their starting QB but the chargers really have no HFA at all

Balty at Pittsburgh Im gonna have to see how the steelers look tonight

KC @ Denver: I get the situational angle to play Denver but how can you go against the chiefs right now. I think u have to keep betting them until they show anything other than dominance.

Leans:
GB
KC
Zona
NYG
Miami
 
BOL said that the Pats were the biggest teaser liability they have ever had vs Lions .

I think that records going be broken again this week with the Pats
 
Rosen replaced utterly ineffective Sam Bradford in the final minutes of the Arizona Cardinals’ Week 3 loss to the Chicago Bears. Although Rosen couldn’t pull off a comeback win, he was put in a terrible position by his coaches and they understood that Bradford couldn’t start again this week for an 0-3 team.
Cardinals coach Steve Wilks announced Rosen is the team’s new starter on Monday. (Per Yahoo Sports)
 
Take a look at how Jack performed off a loss last season. 4-0 winning by an avg of 26+ ppg (not including week 17). I’ll take my chances laying 7.5 here.
 
Capaholic said:
Buffalo-GB: Took GB at 9.5. Mostly 10's everywhere.. You would have had to lay 14.5 last week. Value on GB no matter what your eyes told you this week. In fact, forget everything your eyes told you this week.
Click to expand...

But I don't want to!

I think it was the perfect storm of sandwich spot/lookahead, taking Buffalo lightly, and a great gameplan to smack Cousins early. I can't see the Packers sleepwalking through this game.

Hughes played the game of his life, 15 pressures. Milano played amazing. Cousins had zero chances to take shots at Ryan Lewis, who is very much untested cb. No way Rodgers doesn't get those shots down the field at some point. If anyone at the position could make a rookie LB look bad it's him. I just don't think the Packer defense is any good- losing Wilkerson paired with getting Shady back (and my fandom) is enough to keep me off the chalk.
 
Browns-Raiders: This line bopped around all over the place on BetOnline last night settling in at 3. Could have gotten Oak -1.5 at one point and wish I had. If this dips below 3, I'll bite. Love Baker and love the Browns energy, but the Browns will be a huge public play this week no question

first three weeks of the season I have taken the Raiders opponent 2nd half when they have had a 1st half lead. Oakland, and esp Carr, are a team of CHOKES. Browns with Baker Mayfield actually looked GOOD last week coming from behind vs the Jets. will HOPE the Raider get yet ANOTHER 1st half lead this game :)
 
C-MAN said:
Take a look at how Jack performed off a loss last season. 4-0 winning by an avg of 26+ ppg (not including week 17). I’ll take my chances laying 7.5 here.
Click to expand...

Jags -1.5 in a teaser is being bet by all sharps.
 
Raiders first half scores this season

Raiders 13 Rams 10
Raiders 12 Broncos 0
Raiders 10 Dolphins 7

They are playing hard as a team and come out with pretty good first half energy and gameplans. They dont have the talent to sustain, especially on defense. If you like the Raiders I would look into a first half wager. Baker is being hailed as the savior after what he did in that game last week. Lets not forget that he is a rookie making his first NFL road start.
 
Problem with the Raiders is Gruden needs a season of coaching back under his belt. His decisions are very questionable late in games.
 
in&out said:
Jags -1.5 in a teaser is being bet by all sharps.
Click to expand...

Teaming them in a 7 pointer with TB +10 & Balti +10.5 is tempting. I know many people are high on Chicago this week but not sure they have the offense to beat anyone by DD.
 
Football on television was changed forever 20 years ago tonight when the yellow first down line debuted on ESPN in a game between Baltimore and Cincy.

Probably the most helpful innovation in football broadcasting since instant replay came along.
 
C-MAN said:
Take a look at how Jack performed off a loss last season. 4-0 winning by an avg of 26+ ppg (not including week 17). I’ll take my chances laying 7.5 here.
Click to expand...

Well yea so you said not including a loss. But ok the Titans just always beat Jax.

One of those wins was London. Two were against the Colts. Then a Steelers team that the Jags were up 28-7 against (almost same score as regular season) as in playoffs before Steelers look chances that they didn‘t in reg season throwing bombs to AB to make it close in score. So London, two garbage opponents and an ideal match-up

But Jets aren‘t exactly a good team or a difficult match-up either. So you have a good point :) Go Jags
 
Coverdatspred said:
Raiders first half scores this season

Raiders 13 Rams 10
Raiders 12 Broncos 0
Raiders 10 Dolphins 7

They are playing hard as a team and come out with pretty good first half energy and gameplans. They dont have the talent to sustain, especially on defense. If you like the Raiders I would look into a first half wager. Baker is being hailed as the savior after what he did in that game last week. Lets not forget that he is a rookie making his first NFL road start.
Click to expand...

Issue is RZ, which this article explains a bit, teams with new systems generally struggle in rz at first because they lack familiarity

https://theathletic.com/547866/2018...-some-ease-without-the-points-to-show-for-it/

Shows how they are really moving with ease on a lot of drives, think they are top 5 in least 3 and outs too

They are 6th in YPG but 28th in ppg, so they should adjust to the mean on the points.
 
I have an out that does 7 pt teasers.. NExt person to give me a leg to combine it with I will put a hundy on it.

Who do I tease JAX with?
 
Will take a little while for books to adjust to Baker - this will be the last time in his career he’s dogged on the road against a shit ass team.
 
Fitz showed some balls on MNF. Kept hanging in the pocket after taking shot after shot. He also didn’t crumble like the old Fitz after a couple turnovers and almost brought his team back. I was really impressed with his play.
 
I really like the PATS at home vs phins... even though patriots are hurting i see them beating phins by 10 at least... hopefuly! Any given sunday of course! Any thoughts
 
Jdizzle305 said:
I really like the PATS at home vs phins... even though patriots are hurting i see them beating phins by 10 at least... hopefuly! Any given sunday of course! Any thoughts
Click to expand...

I hope they do, but the Dolphins always play them tough, especially in Miami (I know its at Foxboro).
If it were the 2nd half of the season i'd have more faith in the Pats.
 
Maybe one of you SDQL experts can check the following:
Pats in Belichick/Brady era after 2Ls in games 1-8.

This one feels like a close one to me. Pats win with a Vinateri FG late :)
 
Think Dallas might be my favorite side for the day games. Seems like a game where zeke gonna run wild on lions shit run defense. Only real concern for me is Lee being out but not as if lions run game poses a real threat. I expect boys will be able to pressure stafford into some mistakes and zeke will handle the offense.
 
Bucs/bears under is solid imo. Bears defense will continue fitzmagic tumble back to reality. Really don’t have to play good defense to slow bears offense down, once they off script trubisky turns into the inaccurate qb he been his whole life. Guess biggest concern be if fitzmagic turnovers dig bucs a early hole and he ends up chucking it 50x which could lead to points from either side!! Bright side is bears will pound the rock having that clock zooming from the opening kick. I made it 43 so plenty of room for a play.
 
Gaius.T said:
Maybe one of you SDQL experts can check the following:
Pats in Belichick/Brady era after 2Ls in games 1-8.

This one feels like a close one to me. Pats win with a Vinateri FG late :)
Click to expand...

Normally I wouldn’t think twice and would pound pats here but man they look slow all over on both sides. Not to mention I feel like they daring folks to play pats dangling that 6.5, can’t remember last time I saw a pats line where felt like books were inviting pats money. Obviously I think it safe to assume pats will right the ship as season progresses, if Gordon acts right in the coming weeks he gonna add a dememtion to this offense they havnt had since Moss!! Can’t do anything but expect hoody to fix the defense but right this moment I don’t trust them to make enough stops to cover any kind of number. I’m staying far away but kinda feel like you in thinking it be close and pats pull it out late.
 
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