Week 4 Discussion...The Wonk Week

Fuck that, begging for Buffalo money. Waiting for Bovada to take their tampon out & open a line but leaning over.
 
Hard not to like the under in Sea/Jets with no Decker, Marshall limited and RW not 100%.
 
Bills thoughts


Watkins to the ir may be a surprise to some but watching his interviews you could tell he was full of shit and he was in pain. Another hit to an offense that was shaky from the start. From most reports it seems like Clay will play along with Glenn (which is huge). Darby seems like a possibility to play as well. I know many people will look at the Bills/Arizona game and think the Bills may come out and score this week, but I am VERY hesitant to back anything over related here. It was a great win last week but the offense benefitted greatly from 5 takeaways and a big lead early. They were still 4-13 on 3rd conversions and lost TOP. Tyrod was sacked 4x.

McCoy had a big return to form as the offense was centered around him (as if they have a choice). Hoody is the king of taking away your best weapon- You know Shady is going to get a ton of attention. I don't think the Bills trust the pass protection enough to take a ton of shots downfield, though Goodwin is a burner. I would expect Tyrod gets the ball out quick and they pound the run.

Defensively I said last week I expected them to bounce back off a terrible performance. I think it's possible they get another max effort- the only way to win this one is to continue winning the turnover battle. I honestly want Garrop because there is no way his arm is ready and he's due for a regression. Brissett might cause enough confusion to give Blount space to get going and I worry most about Blount. Now watch Hoody go throw the ball 50x.

From a line perspective 7.5 seems like too much to me though there is a chance this ends up 27-13 type final. Overreaction to the Pats owning houston. I'm leaning on the points and think it stays under the number
 
Got my lines tonight and locked in my props: Marshall over 5.5 and 69.5. Julio over 84.5 yards. Ellito over 90.5 rushing. maclin over 5.5 and 68.5
 
What's the deal with J. Thomas? His receiving yards prop is 44.5 over +125. The colts suck vs tight ends. I'm going to lock it in. If he's good to go I'll just have to hope he's not limited
 
LONDON - Traveling out of the country can be a daunting task, especially when you're expected to compete just days after arriving in another continent.
However, Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson has grown accustomed to those types of work trips over the last three years. Robinson is set to play in his third international series game on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.
Despite adjusting to international travel for games, Robinson is not familiar with globetrotting under other circumstances.
"I don't travel out of the country much," Robinson said. "The only three times I've been out of the country have been coming to London. I think it's a pretty unique experience, being able to come out here and play at Wembley. We see our fan base increasing every year."
That growing fan base has led to more comfortable visits for Robinson and his teammates in the United Kingdom. While he hasn't been able to interact with London fans regularly, those that he has met have been polite and even generous.
"For the last two years, the trip has been pretty brief, but my first year, we were walking around - me, Allen Hurns and a couple of other receivers - and we were just trying to find our way to go, we really didn't know where to go," Robinson said.
"We saw this guy who is a big Jags fan and he came up to us - he knew who we were right away - he knew where we were going. A guy got hit the day before and he asked if he was okay. He then showed us where we were going."
Entering the matchup against the Colts at 0-3, Robinson knows how important this game has become for the Jaguars. He gets a rush out of division games and hopes to fly home with a win.
"You want each and every one badly, but this being a division opponent, I think for me especially, it's something that's especially fun," Robinson said.
"You know their tendencies, you know their players and who you're going against, so I think these divisional games are especially fun."
After taking three trips to London, it's starting to feel comfortable for Robinson. Being at ease should put Robinson and his teammates in the right place to perform.
"For us, seeing our logo on the field and all the Jags stuff in the stadium, it really feels like a home away from home for us," Robinson said.
 
I can't see the Jags scoring less than 24 points. Does anyone know if there are any field issues in London? These jags players should be accustomed to this trip. The colts won't be. Many more jags fans than colts fans as well
 
This is nuts


[h=1]The Wrath of Wembley haunts NFL London losers[/h]Bob McManaman<time datetime="2016-10-01T15:55:02.9770000" class="date" style="display: inline-block; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 1em !important;">12 hours ago</time>
London’s calling, and she can be a cruel, cruel mistress.
Just ask virtually every NFL team that ever answered the phone, agreed to fly across the Atlantic, played a regular-season game in Wembley Stadium, and lost. It hasn’t been very pretty.
636109340024937591-wembley-stadium.jpg
General view of T-shirt at Niketown London promoting the NFL International Series game between the ...more
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports



Since the league began sending teams overseas to Wembley in 2007 as part of the NFL International Series, only one of the 14 teams that have lost there has ever managed to regroup and find a way to make it to the playoffs.
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That would be the 2008 Chargers, who would not only become the first team in history to reach the postseason after a 4-8 start, but the first franchise since 1985 to win a division title with an 8-8 record. San Diego lost in the AFC divisional round that season to the Steelers, who would eventually go on to win Super Bowl XLIII over the Cardinals.
Everyone else that has failed in London has pretty much failed miserably.

  • 636105892727860758-anfl01.jpg
  • 636105892727860758-anfl02.jpg
azcentral sports' Bob McManaman ranks every NFL team after Week 3 of the season. Who is No. 1 now? How far did... more
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports



Not a single team has ever finished with a winning regular-season record when losing in Wembley. Not only that, but through nine years of sending teams to England, there have been eight head coaches that have been fired either during or after the season in which their teams lost a game there, including two interim coaches that were released as well.
Then again, Wembley has been known for its share of curses. It’s also been a joy kill for certain European soccer teams and rugby clubs over the years, a place that many just can’t seem to conquer or shake.
Which brings us to Sunday morning’s two combatants at Wembley, the Colts (1-2) and the Jaguars (0-3). With poor starts by both teams entering the game, the rest of the season already looks somewhat in doubt for each club. But make no mistake, the loser of this game is likely headed for real disaster if history holds true.
The winless Jaguars are desperate and a 0-4 start could be enough to make Gus Bradley the next coach to lose his job and feel the Wrath of Wembley.
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If Jacksonville has anything going for it, though, it’s a 51-16 rout over the Colts last December in a game Indianapolis players still vividly remember.
“They’re going to be playing desperation ball,” Colts linebacker D’Qwell Jackson told reporters. “And last year they beat up on us pretty good, so they’re going to come in confident.”
The Jaguars will only feel that way if they win.
Add up the total regular-season victories from each team that has won in London, and you get 128 combined wins. Add up all the victories from those who have lost at Wembley and you get just 72. That’s a difference of 56 total wins and it’s got to mean something, doesn’t it?
“I don’t know, we won when we went there,” said Cardinals cornerback Marcus Cooper, who was with the Chiefs last season when they beat the Lions 45-10 at Wembley.
The 2015 Chiefs were the first team to give up a home game to London and still finish the season with a winning record. The Jaguars are giving up another home game to play in London once again, and Bradley knows the significance of what another loss would mean.
“This big picture is we have to win now,” he said. “We have to find a way. … We can all sit here and talk about, ‘We have to win, we must win.’ That is great, but, ‘What do we need to do here? What do we need to do today? What do we need to do tomorrow?’ That’s part of it. That is what this team is still learning and coming together on. We just have to keep challenging them.”
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This game will likely be a real clunker. As popular as the NFL has been in London, the games themselves haven’t been all that great.
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Yes, one could argue that the NFL simply isn’t sending its best teams to England. But in a league that’s supposedly built on parity, wouldn’t you think that any team can win there at any time?
And even if you lose at Wembley, isn’t there enough competitive balance for a team to rebound and recover? So far, the math says no. Losers at Wembley have staggered to a combined 72-150-1 record over the past nine years. Of the 14 losers there, six would end up finishing last in their division and five would finish second-to-last.
Those numbers could get worse after Sunday’s game, as Washington and Cincinnati will play at Wembley on Oct. 30. The NFL also will stage another game in England a week prior when the Rams meet the Giants at Twickenham Stadium.
Rams coach Jeff Fisher, whose team plays at the Cardinals this week, is already dreading the trip overseas.
“We’re going to go to Detroit and then leave from Detroit and go to London so we have some travel ahead of us,” Fisher said. “Three of our next four are on the road, and that includes at Detroit, at London, so we have some challenges ahead of us. You take care of the players, try to get them into a routine, and you just go.
“When you come back, you have to take advantage of the rest and recovery and sleep and get them back on your time and then come back and regroup. Fortunately, you have the bye, so you have time to regroup, you have time to adjust to the time zone. You don’t have the opportunity to take advantage of the bye week per se because the players are guaranteed four consecutive days off, so you have to get as much done as you can, but the bye week at least makes it a little bit easier.”
 
London game

I want no part of going up against Andrew Luck and his miracle comebacks. Being a division game worries me for overs but being in London trumps that for me. Don't think the colts defense will travel well. The jags have struggled offensively but I think the team could get right vs this sorry ass colts defense

Jaguars TT o23.5 -115
Robinson o77.5 yards rec -105
Hurns o60.5 yards rec +130
Thomas (ques) o44.5 yards rec +125
 
London game (yes I'm on Jags big)

Man City tt o1.5 goals -110 let's make this happen!!
 
Got my lines tonight and locked in my props: Marshall over 5.5 and 69.5. Julio over 84.5 yards. Ellito over 90.5 rushing. maclin over 5.5 and 68.5


LOve Elliott this week. Marshall should get a shit ton of targets so that play makes sense. Tend to think Kelce may be the higher passing target in the KC game though.


I'm having trouble picking a DFS qb to start..... any thoughts?
 
If anyone cares


<header style="box-sizing: border-box; height: 34px; padding: 0px; line-height: 40px; color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 1px solid rgb(44, 55, 66); font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%; background-color: rgb(44, 55, 66) !important;">[h=2]Officials[/h]</header>10/2/2016
[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]KC @ PIT[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Ron Torbert [/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #DFF0D8"]10-9 (52.63%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #DFF0D8"]10-9 (52.63%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]DAL @ SF[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Terry McAulay[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]52-76 (40.63%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}"]67-64 (51.15%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]NO @ SD[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Walt Coleman[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]64-65 (49.61%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}"]66-64 (50.77%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]LA @ ARI[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Gene Steratore[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]58-67 (46.4%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}"]60-66 (47.62%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]DEN @ TB[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Jerome Boger[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #DFF0D8"]72-56 (56.25%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}"]54-75 (41.86%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]CLE @ WAS[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Jeff Triplette[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]56-73 (43.41%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}"]61-66 (48.03%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]BUF @ NE[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Peter Morelli[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]66-63 (51.16%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}"]66-65 (50.38%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]SEA @ NYJ[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Carl Cheffers[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]62-67 (48.06%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}"]63-64 (49.61%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]CAR @ ATL[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]John Hussey[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]5-13 (27.78%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #DFF0D8"]14-4 (77.78%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]DET @ CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Tony Corrente[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]66-63 (51.16%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #DFF0D8"]75-55 (57.69%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]TEN @ HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Clete Blakeman[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]52-50 (50.98%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}"]48-54 (47.06%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]OAK @ BAL[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Ed Hochuli[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]63-73 (46.32%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #DFF0D8"]72-65 (52.55%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: table table-striped table-bordered table-hover, width: 100%"]
<thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR="bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]IND @ JAX[/TD]
[TD="class: ng-binding"]Walt Anderson[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Home Record (ATS)[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].RecordPercent > 52.38}, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]63-65 (49.22%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Under Record[/TD]
[TD="class: {success: event.Officials[0].TotalRecordPercent > 52.38}"]67-64 (51.15%)[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]



10/3/2016


 
LOve Elliott this week. Marshall should get a shit ton of targets so that play makes sense. Tend to think Kelce may be the higher passing target in the KC game though.


I'm having trouble picking a DFS qb to start..... any thoughts?
Rivers or Brees would be @ the top of my list
 
I really hope I am wrong. But I am down on my Colts this year. I am not expecting a W. I see a low scoring 1H and gonna hit the O in 2H
 
Been at the hockey rink with my kids what the hell happened in the New England game that the line dropped to 3???
 
Without Jimmy G I don't think the Pats can win... I was on them vs. Houston but Bills run defense is pretty solid.

Tyron is worlds better than Brock, too.
 
LOve Elliott this week. Marshall should get a shit ton of targets so that play makes sense. Tend to think Kelce may be the higher passing target in the KC game though.


I'm having trouble picking a DFS qb to start..... any thoughts?


my most owned are a smith, cam, cousins, rivers
 
SF is an auto play @ home. This team simply falls apart vs. high level competition on the road.

But the defense, at home, is as good as it gets in the NFL going back several seasons INCLUDING last year. Check out Palmer's, Rodger's, Flacco's, Wilson's stats etc. @ SF.

I would never make SF an auto play
 
Refs in London helping the colts here...PI on Robinson not called, then call a bs one on the Jags
 
London game

I want no part of going up against Andrew Luck and his miracle comebacks. Being a division game worries me for overs but being in London trumps that for me. Don't think the colts defense will travel well. The jags have struggled offensively but I think the team could get right vs this sorry ass colts defense

Jaguars TT o23.5 -115
Robinson o77.5 yards rec -105
Hurns o60.5 yards rec +130
Thomas (ques) o44.5 yards rec +125
Nice. I followed. :cheers3:
 
If you had auto played the 49ers at home since the start of the 2013 season your record would be 12-13

What about since the beginning of last season when they started shitting the bed?

This isn't about covering Harbaugh DD spreads.

It's about capitalizing on the perception that they are terrible, both home and on the road. And I believe L9 they are 6-3 w/ the defense shutting all teams down.
 
adding sammie coates over 2.5 catches tonight

already got 2/4 morning props complete with marshall trending towards an easy cover on yards at least
 
Fitz o6.5 receptions +110
Fitz o75.5 yards +115
Evans o5.5 receptions -115
Evans o75.5 yards -105
M. Gordon o90.5 rushing +115
 
Last edited:
Just like the Bills earlier the Niners win this game. Two obvious easy ones from the schedule makers slash books.
 
thanks, won a little. Whiffed on Tyrell and missed on maclin and marshall receptions but still profitable in both props and dfs for week so I cant complain
 
Loving Rudolph over 50.5 yards tonight. Not loving the juice at all though

first installment locked in at o50.5 -130... now its -140

Bradford loves utilizing his TE and the two have gelled quickly....

The giants are abysmal vs TEs, and that's being generous. We just do not have the personnel and its been the case for multiple seasons.

Diggs has to be the main focus on defense and I think this helps Rudolph...

over 4.5 juice is at -160 and thats a bit much for my liking
 
sometimes you gotta lay juice on those props. its annoying but you only pay if you lose. i like the over 4.5 catch one a lot
 
Ya triceratops/nba, thanks a bunch for prop discussions

np

i have taken my time & energy being wasted on fantasy and have used it to research for props

fading the giants week in week out with TEs will leave you in the black at seasons end.... that coupled with Rudolph's usage spiking with Bradford and him showing his appreciation in the media for being a bigger part of the offense...
 
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