KCC/PHI
It's hard not to like the best TE in the game in Kelce here. I understand why teams are/have shifted to selling out to stop the pass now. See Chargers last week vs Chiefs. While some may think Hill is playing hurt, and maybe so, stopping him led to the highest target share of the year for Kelce. Quietly, philly has allowed limited deep receptions, and the only team in the league to hold WR units to an average that's under 100 receiving yards. What does this lead too, TE funnel, as they're ranked 6th in points given up to TEs, and now you're facing kelce... yes please. The game is middle of the pack in terms of pace of play, but KC has the 2nd highest TT of the main slate. IT's kelce, and I'd consider Helaire. I liked that his usage went up last week despite playing from behind more often, now this may be because its what the chargers were giving them, well this is what philly will be giving them too, and its a good way to get exposure to a high scoring offense in a higher leverage spot. LEt me add that they're 5th in adjusted line yards (ALY) situation for the week.
From a Philly perspective, I am leaning more to backing them, but I can't stomach possibly having only 2 of their original/starting Olineman. Last week they were in a similar situation and they ran the ball 3 times with RBs, 3 times, yes 3 times. So Hurts?! He is getting a lot of buzz, which I hate, as a naked/low salary play. But KCC is at/near bottom in both Passing/Running DVOA metrics. Now you want to pair him with someone, its tough... I'd throw out the TEs, as thats a timeshare I don't want to guess. I want more upside than reagor, Devonta makes sense with a high aDOT of 14.61 for the season, he was also out their 98% of the time. I don't hate a super low owned pivot, and long shot threat in Watkins... He's seen his snaps increase each week, most recently 66%, you'd think he will get more opportunities than 2 if that continues to go up, and they're playing from behind. While I said RB attempts concerned me, this is a better spot than last week, and PHI has the 10th best ALY situation (but may be hurt without the lineman), I won't have much but may sprinkle.
T. Kelce Rec Yds O92.5 -115 2.3-2
ARI/LAR
I'm taking a mostly fade, just one offs, approach to this game. I think most see it and go woah, highest O/U, with a tighter spread. However, both these teams defend the pass better than the run. It's a divisional matchup, and is the 6th highest expected pace of play for the entire week (that part maybe isn't a negative, but I'd think most see it as higher/faster). I don't want Dhop vs ramsey.... (
)) I don't want goalline only conner to continue to vulture edmonds (if you're going here, edmonds is the higher ceiling option for sure). What I would be interest in is the inside option of Kirk who will primarly be covered by Williams, who was a great CB prior years but has got off to a baddd start. Kirks snap share is concerning at 59% for the season, but he's being utilized when he's out there. I think others see this game and think moore/hopkins/green before kirk (atleast moore/hopkins). But his aDOT his huge at an average of 16.5 for the season, and thats with 1 less target than hopkins and green. You can kind of make a similar arguement with green, just a lower aDOT, and I won't talk you off that. But those would be my 1, and possibly 2 options here.
From a rams perspective, I want 1 of 2 things. I need to know if henderson is fully healthy, no limits, as he dominated the snap share week 1, and the rams have been nice to letting their guy for the week, be their guy. He averaged 14.5 carries and 3 targets per game through week 1/2, and that was with missing 1 quarter of the 2nd game. So we're getting a guy, expected to get 20~ touches, at a super cheap price. In a game that's scripted to be close. Oh, and LAR is 4th in ALY this week, let me here the news first, but ready to sign me up. I'm fading Kupp here, he is staffords favorite target, and the #1 fantasy receiver (I think) to start, but the price gap between him and woods is starting to get insane, so I'll bite it to see it. I'd rather grab woods as a cheap, low owned pivot to a guy who will be high owned.
ARI/LAR U54 -110 1.1-1
I may be adding henderson props as well.
