Week 4 90%+ Situational Plays

[Shortline]

Here we go again...These trends give me a fucking headache:hairout: when reading them. Some of you may remember these and have been somewhat profitable in the past. THESE ARE MONEYLINE TRENDS! I pick only the games were the line is within +/- 7 points. I posted these on another site on Week 1 and they went 3-0 on the ML, but just 1-1-1 ATS. I haven't tracked them since.

Razorbacks

Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (ARKANSAS) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB, in the first month of the season.
(25-1 over the last 10 seasons.) (96.2%, +23.6 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -140
The average score in these games was: Team 37.1, Opponent 13.9 (Average point differential = +23.2)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0, +6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-0, +13 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (35-4, +26.1 units).


Michigan St.

Play Against - A road team vs. the money line (NOTRE DAME) - terrible rushing team (<=75 RY/game) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (<=75 RY/game), in non-conference games.
(23-2 since 1992.) (92%, +20.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -127.5
The average score in these games was: Team 40.2, Opponent 14.9 (Average point differential = +25.3)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1, +3.5 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2, +15.4 units).

There is one more...I'll post when I find it.

 

[RJ Esq]

Thanks, Sporty. Welcome to the forum.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

I think this second trend is a little misleading...bad competition for MSU makes that rushing defense look better and the last game for ND insisted that they throw from the second quarter on, hence killing that rushing avg for such a small sample...

Appreciate the info for sure bro...

 

[smo1a]

Nice to see Arkansas supported by that trend (although I find most trends carry much significance in CFB - especially over 6 years!) since I have a play on the spread with them.

The Mich St dominance over ND is still amazing to me, but I'm all over the Irish to rebound this week.

 

[Shortline]

NAVY

Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (TULSA) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins.
(36-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (90%, +29.9 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -152.5
The average score in these games was: Team 33.6, Opponent 20.8 (Average point differential = +12.8)

The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +2.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2, +10.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-3, +18.7 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (45-10, +22.7 units).

 

[Shortline]

Wyoming

Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (WYOMING) - with an excellent passing defense - allowing 125 or less passing yards/game.
(30-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (90.9%, +24.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -170
The average score in these games was: Team 33.9, Opponent 16.5 (Average point differential = +17.3)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1, +4.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-2, +13.3 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (54-12, -1.5 units).

 

[Goose]

Keep em coming SL!!!

 

[Shortline]

This one is just under 90% but posting anyway.

UTAH


Play On - Road favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game.
(26-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (89.7%, +23.8 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +103.1
The average score in these games was: Team 33.4, Opponent 18.7 (Average point differential = +14.6)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0, +4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2, +6.7 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (33-6, +17.8 units).

 

[Shortline]

SMU

Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (SMU) - after a win by 28 or more points against opponent after a loss by 28 or more points.
(23-2 since 1992.) (92%, +20.2 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -137.5
The average score in these games was: Team 41.4, Opponent 15.3 (Average point differential = +26.1)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0, +4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1, +7.4 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2, +15.2 units).

 

[Shortline]

Next 2 games almost don't qualify as the ATS is right around +/- 7 points...but will share them anyway:

Syracuse

Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (SYRACUSE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games.
(42-1 over the last 10 seasons.) (97.7%, +39.8 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -220
The average score in these games was: Team 34.4, Opponent 16 (Average point differential = +18.3)

The situation's record this season is: (4-0, +4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-0, +12 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-0, +27 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (46-2, +41.5 units).

 

[Shortline]

Cal

Play Against - A road team vs. the money line (ARIZONA ST) - after a win by 17 or more points against opponent after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points.
(34-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.9%, +32.7 units. Rating = 7*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +105
The average score in these games was: Team 34.2, Opponent 19.6 (Average point differential = +14.6)

The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1, +12.1 units).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (48-11, +22.1 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (71-20, +17.1 units).

That's it boys and girls!

Shorty

 

[pags11]

good stuff shortline...

 

[CharlieBX]

Some very good trends here buddy..definitely somethings to consider if searching for a nice ML to throw into a parlay too!