Week #3

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Week #2 was an absolute bloodbath. Will come back to it later. I'm sitting here, ready for the lines to come out, yet they're running behind...and I've gotta bail in a few. (Might be a good thing if I miss them, considering yesterday.) Tons of amazing upsets though, and huge dogs, so at least that was the silver lining. (Makes it a more interesting season.)

This was my very quick look ahead to week three in last week's thread:

Ok, here's my Week #3 look ahead:
Miami @ A&M - Wow, could this be the game of the day? Not sure which way I lean just yet.
Penn St @ Auburn - Revenge. Home dog? Gotta see Aubbie play first.
Messy St @ LSU - Leach vs Kelly!!! LSU has the trends, but hm team has lost L3. Kinda lean Leach early.
Georgia @ Scary - UGA big.
Mich St @ Wash - Interesting match up, and not sure yet. High scoring?
Oklahoma @ Nebby - Sooners big.
Purdue @ Syracuse
Texas Tech @ NCST
FSU @ Louisville - UL and hm team had ATS trends. FSU off a bye, and I'll be on them. Double revenge! Series takes a turn every 2 years, so it's due.
SDST @ Utah - Utes roll.
Fresno @ USC - Sandwich between Pac-12 rd games for USC. We all know Fresno's history vs the conference.
BYU @ Oregon - Mormons coming off Baylor. Gotta see that game first.
+
SMU @ Maryland - Over, right?
Pitt @ WMU - Revenge.

LV Openers of note:
FSU (-1.5)
Okla (-3.5)
Purdue (-1)
UGA (-13.5)
BYU (+6.5)
PSU (-1)
LSU (-3.5)
NCST (-8.5)
Pitt (-10)
UW (-3)
A&M (-9)
Utah (-16.5)
USC (-10)

By the time we see them here in a few, most will have seriously moved.

Back when things start happening...
 
I’ve been stalking BOL for the past hour but still nothing, I assume because week 1 NFL is the focus.

Yeah yesterday was brutal for me as well but I know it’s a marathon not a sprint and given the volume of plays in a given season, inknow im good for least a hundred losses, so I don’t stress too much over bad weeks but still sucks haha
 
Oklahoma (-14) for 1

i may be a sucker, but f it. 1st road game for sooners, frost fired, but can the huskers really rally in one week after 2 pathetic games?
 
Pitt (-10) for 1

another sucker play, but big time revenge spot. if not completely down after the tenny game, just a huge disparity in talent. LY's embarrassment at home should keep them focused.
 
USA/UCLA over 59 for 1

one total for today's openers. 3rd straight home game for the Bruins, just like last year. they've been putting up 45 a game, which shouldn't change much here. just need south bama to be able to contribute more than two TDs. if i didn't think they had a great chance of doing that, i would've just laid the -13.5 points. not calling for an upset by any means, but have this line between 14 and 17 pts...which means i've got this game in the 70s.
 
number2 said:
Isn’t Pitt QB hurt yesterday?
Click to expand...

sorry, yes, both were hurt. gotta think both will be available this week. if not, i'll buy out of the play later.

will copy/paste what i saw. slovis got planted, but should be fine. patti finished the game, so the sprain couldn't have been that bad.







Corey Crisan

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Source: Pitt's Kedon Slovis was diagnosed with a concussion, and Nick Patti has a high ankle sprain.
9:24 AM · Sep 11, 2022

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concussions are tricky...but no broken collar bone, no dislocated shoulder, or anything really bad like that.

risky, but that's why there's value in the line...as it should be well over 14 pts per PR#s. will monitor and get out if needed.
 
kids baseball starts for me this coming Sunday, so i won't be around for openers any longer. might be a good thing. only thing i regret though is being too quick and reactionary with Oklahoma. the LV opener was -3.5, but was available yesterday at -14 on BoL...after everyone that could hit the Sooners hard after the Frost firing. it reached 14.5 at one point, but has come down since. saw 11 and 11.5s today. :(
i make this line between 8-9 pts based on the various PR #s I use, and borrow to mesh together. line value is with nebby, obviously, if removing the cancer gets them to show up and play great football. can they do that? who knows. if anything, backing Nebby 1H seems logical. i'm still a believer that the Sooners will roll, and that Nebby can't turn things around on a dime like that. but all that said, i'd sure AF rather have them at -11 on the road versus the -14 pts. blew that one...

brought this total up in another thread too...MSU @ UW. when i played the Bruin over yesterday, i was SO close to hitting this over as well. was at 53 all day yesterday, then at 55 very late at night when i checked again. this morning/early afternoon it was up to 57 to 57.5, and has since come down to 55 to 55.5 right now.
this total is moving all over the place. was a service setting up a play? or was the over just hit, and is being corrected now? whatever the case, it was some interesting movement over the last 24 hours.
personally, i may still play the over. really like what i'm seeing from the UW offense and Penix. UW defense is questionable. The LV opener had UW as a 3 pt fav, when i was really hoping to catch them as a slight hm dog. that said, looks like some like a bit value right now with the spartans. I'm not sold either way when it comes to the sides, as I've got questions about both squads. still leaning over, but just interested in all this line movement for now.
 
couple additions from earlier today...

Utah (-21) for 1
i make this 24-25 points, but that's not why i'm playing it. yes, the utes have ASU on deck...but this one is about two things. First, big time revenge from the triple OT game LY. Utes still hungry after that Florida game, and will use this as another tune up for conference play. Second, SDST was gawd awful against Zona. Just not the same team or defense as LY, and this QB flat out sucks under any kind of pressure. I got burned against Zona, who beat them by 18 while opening up their new stadium. This + that doesn't mean the next thing will happen, especially when two weeks have passed, but Utah should just absolutely crush the Aztec team that I watched play. Can't see this line coming down, so played it now in case it rises later.

USC (-6) to Fresno/USC ov65.5 for 1 to win 1
This is along the lines of my Tenny/Pitt teaser from last week. Where to begin? :)
First, USC cannot stop the run. This will come back to bite them later, and against better teams. Second, USC has been really benefiting from turnovers, which made both wins look much better than they were. Bottom line, Stanford was a lot closer than that score suggests...and my under should have hit in that game too. Can't keep banking on all these points from turnovers as the competition improves.
Having watched the Baylor/BYU game, i just kept thinking how Baylor would absolutely carve up that Trojan defense with their ability to run the ball. Has nothing to do with this teaser. Just mentioning it because there will be great spots to fade USC (and their defense) down the road.
Fresno St always plays great against the Pac 12. They had the Oregon St game won not once but twice, yet couldn't put the MFer away. Their defense got worn down or something, because it was non-existent late. Should only get worse against the Trojans.
Anyhow, my thoughts are all over the place lol. Bottom line, USC's offensive success should continue here...and they'll probably continue to benefit from turnovers as well. Fresno will be able to move the ball on the Trojans too. Low 70s was a bit too much, not leaving much room, so i teased it down 6 pts with the side. I see USC getting between 45-49 pts here, and Fresno around 27-28 pts. Had I not been so disappointed by the late portion of the Beaver game, i could've considered backing the Bulldogs here. No chance after that last game though. Defense just disappeared. :(
 
updated card as of Monday at lunch...


FSU (-1.5) for 1

Oklahoma (-14) for 1
BYU (+4) for 1
Pitt (-10) for 1
Utah (-21) for 1

USA/UCLA over 59 for 1

USC (-6) to Fresno/USC ov65.5 for 1 to win 1


more to come.
 
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that MSU/UW total keeps moving back and forth. latest i saw was 56.5 pts. just find it (the up, down, up again) interesting...


no new additions yet. have just about finished updating all my numbers, and meshing everything that i use together. other than BYU, of course, these are my favorite dogs so far: Miami (hoping to see, or buy to, a 7), Tulane (if I can get it to 17), WKU (at 7 or better), and a fat maybe with N Texas too.

fwiw, the BYU line at Oregon is appropriate. i'm just very impressed with what the mormons bring to the table, and how they're playing. i know it was georgia, but ducks looked so soft. byu was anything but soft against a solid baylor team.

the canes are interesting, but A&M losing to Appy St at home ruined some of that value. think both teams were looking ahead though. two solid squads, but hard to trust either one before seeing some results. the talent is there however.

k st has the sooners on deck. if mizzou was any good, it woulda been a solid sandwich spot. still think there will be some look ahead, and that tulane can keep it relatively close. they have the offense and the returners to compete a bit.

man, the only reason indiana is favored here is cuz they're at home. wku has had two cupcakes and coming off a bye. wish i woulda seen more of what they could do in hawaii the other week. indiana's got a bunch of tough games lined up after this, so liking the spot.
 
another teaser, also along the same lines as last week's Tenny to the Tenny/Pitt over. loved the spot for Tenny, but there was no value with the line. didn't want to tease Tenny down, so teased Pitt up. really liked the over too, but turns out the under was the play (at least w/out teasing it down). so, in regards to Michigan St and Washington that i've mentioned once or twice...


MSU (+10) to MSU/UW ov50 for 1 to win .833
Really like what I've seen from Penix and the UW offense. Just don't trust their defense. Don't really trust the Spartans either. Bottom line, both teams have their flaws. That said, as much as I'd like to back UW here, all the various numbers I use point to value on MSU. Should be a tight game, so teasing MSU up to 10 makes more sense (per the #s I use) then teasing UW to +3. Also was very, very clsoe to playing the over. Mentioned how I watched that total go from 53 to 55 to 57, then back to 56, 55, and 56.5 again. Teasing it down gives it some more wiggle room. Anyhow, we'll see how it all plays out. Like I said, I'll be rooting for UW and the Pac-12 all the way...but with all 3 of my #s favoring MSU on the road, although one is basically a pick, this is what I ended up with.
 
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rounding out the card,,,


NCST (-9.5) @ -120 for 1
1st road game for TT, who's has some good fortune thus far, and they've got Texas on deck. We haven't seen what NCST is capable of yet.

Georgia (-24) @ -120 for 1
Just keep seeing that Oregon game in my head, and know that they can name the score.

Miami (+6) @ -120 for 1
Woulda loved +7, but that won't happen. Gonna be a defensive dog fight, and a one score game either way. Both were looking ahead.

Ole Miss/GT under 63.5 for 1
Barring some crazy shenanigans, (and 2 or more INT, fumble, and/or kick returns), I've got this one in the low to mid 50s.


As much as I was looking to find some dogs, I mostly kept coming back to favs. Hopefully there won't be a repeat of last week,

I still lean a bit towards Purdue, but not enough to bet it. FG game either way.
Lean Baylor, but I've got enough favs.
Soured on the WKU lean. Gun to the head, I'd have to back Indiana now.
Lean Iowa St, but see Baylor.
Soured on the UNT lean. Coin flip.
Lost the value on the Tulane lean. Down to 14, so nope.
Lean UAB, but see Iowa St and Baylor.
Lean ULL, but See UAB Iowa St and Baylor.


:tiphat:
 
should be my final card, as of Weds nite:

FSU (-1.5) for 1

Oklahoma (-14) for 1
BYU (+4) for 1
Pitt (-10) for 1
Utah (-21) for 1
NCST (-9.5) @ -120 for 1
Georgia (-24) @ -120 for 1
Miami (+6) @ -120 for 1

USA/UCLA over 59 for 1
Ole Miss/GT under 63.5 for 1

USC (-6) to Fresno/USC ov65.5 for 1 to win 1
MSU (+10) to MSU/UW ov50 for 1 to win .833


still monitoring the injury updates/etc, so will adjust if/when necessary. GL this week!!!
 
alright, now it's time for my look ahead to Week #4. here are the first half of games i'm looking at...


Arkansas @ Texas A&M (in Arlington)
Messy on deck for A&M, and Bama on deck for Hogs. Arkansas has covered L4, but usually a big dog, except for their 20-10 win LY. Need to see how they look in this week's games, but A&M should be a small home fav (1.5 - 2.5 pts).

Florida @ Tennessee
Vols have a bye on deck, and Gators have Eastern Wash. Florida has been solid in road openers, and owns this series. Florida should be a road dog, and I'll be on them. How much of a dog is TBD, but probably (hopefully) 6 to 7 pts.

Wisconsin @ Ohio St
Illinois on deck for Wisky, and Rutgers on deck for tOSU. Buckeyes have won 8 straight in the series, and I'll be on them here. Would love to see the line at 17 or less, but will take it at 21 or less.

Maryland @ Michigan
Homecoming for BAR and Hunt. Spartans on deck for Maryland, and Iowa on deck for Michigan. Wolverines have won/covered the L6 with the Terps, so I'll be on them here as well. Would love to see the line at 14 or less, but will take it at 17 or less.

Minnesota @ Michigan St
Purdue is on deck for Minny, and Maryland is on deck for MSU. Depending upon how this week goes, Minny should be a nice dog, and I definitely lean Minny here. A MSU win can get me +7 or better. But a MSU loss to UW, and it'll be closer to +4 pts I think.

Indiana @ Cincinnati
Nebby on deck for Indiana, and Tulsa on deck for Cincy. It's early, and how Indiana does this week is important, but kinda lean their way in this one, especially if they're catching 3 TDs (which is about where the line would be today).

Iowa @ Rutgers
Michigan on deck for Iowa, and Ohio St on deck for Rutgers. Not sure yet, but Rutgers will be a home dog. Hopefully it's an enticing line.

Clemson @ Wake Forest
NCST is on deck for Clemson, and FSU is on deck for WF. Clemson has won 13 straight in the series, but Wake has covered 5 of L8. Not sure how I lean just yet, but WF should be catching at least 7.5 at home.

Boston College @ Florida St
Louisville is on deck for BC, and Wake is on deck for FSU. FSU has won L5 at home, but all have been close games. FSU will be favored by double digits though, yet it's the Noles or nothing for me here. Will wait and see if there's any value with the line.

Virginia @ Syracuse
Duke is on deck for Virginia, and FCS on deck for Cuse. Lean Orange at -10 or less.

Notre Dame @ North Carolina
ND has a bye on deck, and UNC has VaTech on deck. Domers own this series, and have covered 3 straight. This one depends upon many things, including health/injuries. Believe it or not though, my first gut instinct is to lean towards UNC, especially as a home dog of +4 or better if we see that.

:tiphat:
 
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here are the second half of games i'm looking at in Week #4...


Kansas St @ Oklahoma
Texas Tech is on deck for K St, and TCU is on deck for Oklahoma. 4 of L5 decided by a TD or less, so I'm definitely leaning on K St here. Obviously things depend on how this week goes, but as of today, K St should be catching about 11 points by my numbers. Would absolutely like to see +10 or better.

Baylor at Iowa St
Okie Lite is on deck for Baylor, and Kansas is on deck for Iowa St. Typically close games in this series. Bears aren't a good road team, and they're too one dimensional. Iowa St should be a small home dog, around a FG give or take, but not sure which way I'd lean just yet.

Texas at Texas Tech
WVU is on deck for Texas, and K St is on deck for TT. Horns absolutely own this series. Need to see how they are without Ewers moving forward, but if the line is reasonable, I will probably be backing the Horns here (especially if -6 or better).

TCU @ SMU
Oklahoma is on deck for TCU, and UCF is on deck for SMU. Dykes old team has won the L2 in the series. TCU is off a bye, but need to see how SMU does at Maryland this week. At first glance, I want to lean SMU but really lean towards the over (if reasonable). 79 and 76 were L2 totals. What's interesting is that (as of today) I can see this line as a FG either way. The different #s I use are oppo of each other, lol. Go figure.

West Virginia @ Virginia Tech
Years ago this would've been a great match up. Texas is on deck for WVU, and UNC is on deck for VT. Not a relevant series any more, and both teams are down. Still interested to see where this opens, even if I won't be playing the game.

Utah at Arizona St
Oregon St is on deck for Utah, and USC is on deck for ASU. ASU used to own this series, but Utes have covered L2. Home team has lost L6 SU and ATS. You know I'm leaning Utah here. Will take them at -7 or better. Need a strong showing from ASU this week, or they'll make us pay a premium (8-9 pts) to back the Utes in this one.

USC @ Oregon St
ASU is on deck for USC, and Utah is on deck for Oregon St. USC owns the series historically, but the home team is 11-6 ATS. (See a few posts up for many more thoughts on USC and their flaws, especially run defense.) Depending upon this week, the Beavs should be a home dog between 3 to 6 points. There will be spots to fade the Trojans, where their flaws will be exposed. Undecided at the moment if this will be one of them. Was not very impressed by the Beavs at Fresno until the very end (their last two drives).

Oregon @ Washington St
Stanford is on deck for Oregon, and Cal is on deck for Wazzou. Wash St is 6-1-1 ATS L8, and home team is 3 of L4. It's also a BYU/Stanford sandwich spot for the Ducks. Wazzou should be catching double digits at home (11 to 13 as of today), but got damned that was an ugly game against Wisky. Gonna keep looking at this one, but hopefully there'll be value in the line. This week's result will determine that.

Stanford @ Washington
Oregon is on deck for Stanford, and UCLA is on deck for Washington...who has a big game vs Sparty this week. Stanford will be off a bye, they're 4-1 ATS L5, but the home team is also 8 of L11. Depending how this week goes, UW should be around a 10 pt fav (as of today's #s) which would make me uncomfortable. My heart will say to back Penix and UW. My mind knows that USC was fortunate to cover vs Stanford, and these games always seem to be within/under 10 points, so that's the way I'd have to lean if the line is that high. We shall see.

James Madison @ Appy St
Included for shits & giggles, as this series used to mean something back in the day. Old FCS foes. Who cares who's on deck for either team. This should be cool to watch. Will be interested to see how heavily the Mountaineers are favored by.


:tiphat:
 
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there's some good info looking ahead to next week (21 of the games) in the last two posts. hopefully some of y'all will read it and toss in your 2 cents, otherwise I'm just talking to myself. and what's the fuckin point of that?

so lets discuss, forum. :glove:
 
nobody wants to talk week #4 with me. :crying2:


it took 3 weeks, but i finally got one right with Louisville involved. FSU lost their QB to injury, had less yards (thx to Malik's ability to run), had an extra turnover/INT, had 2 gimme FGs missed, yet they were still the right side tonight with a solid 2nd half.

my gawd, there's a serious shortage of capable kickers around or something. this is getting ridiculous every freakin week. gonna have to start taking these jackoffs into account more with my capping, as so many routine FGs are being missed each week.
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
alright, now it's time for my look ahead to Week #4. here are the first half of games i'm looking at...


Arkansas @ Texas A&M (in Arlington)
Messy on deck for A&M, and Bama on deck for Hogs. Arkansas has covered L4, but usually a big dog, except for their 20-10 win LY. Need to see how they look in this week's games, but A&M should be a small home fav (1.5 - 2.5 pts).

Florida @ Tennessee
Vols have a bye on deck, and Gators have Eastern Wash. Florida has been solid in road openers, and owns this series. Florida should be a road dog, and I'll be on them. How much of a dog is TBD, but probably (hopefully) 6 to 7 pts.

Wisconsin @ Ohio St
Illinois on deck for Wisky, and Rutgers on deck for tOSU. Buckeyes have won 8 straight in the series, and I'll be on them here. Would love to see the line at 17 or less, but will take it at 21 or less.

Maryland @ Michigan
Homecoming for BAR and Hunt. Spartans on deck for Maryland, and Iowa on deck for Michigan. Wolverines have won/covered the L6 with the Terps, so I'll be on them here as well. Would love to see the line at 14 or less, but will take it at 17 or less.

Minnesota @ Michigan St
Purdue is on deck for Minny, and Maryland is on deck for MSU. Depending upon how this week goes, Minny should be a nice dog, and I definitely lean Minny here. A MSU win can get me +7 or better. But a MSU loss to UW, and it'll be closer to +4 pts I think.

Indiana @ Cincinnati
Nebby on deck for Indiana, and Tulsa on deck for Cincy. It's early, and how Indiana does this week is important, but kinda lean their way in this one, especially if they're catching 3 TDs (which is about where the line would be today).

Iowa @ Rutgers
Michigan on deck for Iowa, and Ohio St on deck for Rutgers. Not sure yet, but Rutgers will be a home dog. Hopefully it's an enticing line.

Clemson @ Wake Forest
NCST is on deck for Clemson, and FSU is on deck for WF. Clemson has won 13 straight in the series, but Wake has covered 5 of L8. Not sure how I lean just yet, but WF should be catching at least 7.5 at home.

Boston College @ Florida St
Louisville is on deck for BC, and Wake is on deck for FSU. FSU has won L5 at home, but all have been close games. FSU will be favored by double digits though, yet it's the Noles or nothing for me here. Will wait and see if there's any value with the line.

Virginia @ Syracuse
Duke is on deck for Virginia, and FCS on deck for Cuse. Lean Orange at -10 or less.

Notre Dame @ North Carolina
ND has a bye on deck, and UNC has VaTech on deck. Domers own this series, and have covered 3 straight. This one depends upon many things, including health/injuries. Believe it or not though, my first gut instinct is to lean towards UNC, especially as a home dog of +4 or better if we see that.

:tiphat:
Click to expand...
Terrific stuff
 
i lied the other night. some more additions for tomorrow...


Indiana (-6) @ -115 for 1
Miss St (-2.5) @ -115 for 1

Tulane/Kansas St over 49 for 1/2
SMU/Maryland over 73 for 1/2


after looking at WKU for so long this week, i've fully gone to the other side.
back in week two, i wrote that i wanted to back messy/leach as a dog. in the end, at less then a FG fav, i still couldn't resist.
lost all value on Tulane, as it's down to 14, but i did like the total enough to add for a small action play.
liked smu a bit too, but would need more points to back them here. kept looking a this game though. both teams have played nobody decent yet. like both offenses, and both defenses are suspect. 73 is a shitload of points. can they reach it? charlotte put up 21 on the Terps, who have the Wolverines on deck. can I get at least 35 from SMU, and 38 from Maryland? a small action play that i can.



ok, now injuries and lack of updates...
- UCLA guys are ok. No clue if Chip will continue this load management crap or not. Could mess with the total if he pulls guys in the 2nd half.
- So the Pitt QBs are a game time decision, and Slovis is part of that. Don't like that there's nothing more concrete, but what can you do.
- Wish I knew more about the BYU receivers too. Both have been practicing, and are game time decisions.

They all think their Bill B now. ;)
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
should be my final card, as of Weds nite:

FSU (-1.5) for 1

Oklahoma (-14) for 1
BYU (+4) for 1
Pitt (-10) for 1
Utah (-21) for 1
NCST (-9.5) @ -120 for 1
Georgia (-24) @ -120 for 1
Miami (+6) @ -120 for 1

USA/UCLA over 59 for 1
Ole Miss/GT under 63.5 for 1

USC (-6) to Fresno/USC ov65.5 for 1 to win 1
MSU (+10) to MSU/UW ov50 for 1 to win .833


still monitoring the injury updates/etc, so will adjust if/when necessary. GL this week!!!
Click to expand...


Yanks27Sox9 said:
i lied the other night. some more additions for tomorrow...


Indiana (-6) @ -115 for 1
Miss St (-2.5) @ -115 for 1

Tulane/Kansas St over 49 for 1/2
SMU/Maryland over 73 for 1/2
Click to expand...
 
^^ final card. didn't do that post right, but that's it. won't be around for much of tomorrow, so anything i add live won't make it here.

really liked Tulane, UTSA, and SMU as dogs but didn't pull the trigger on any. just didn't feel like i was catching enough points in all 3 cases.
my gut keeps telling me Purdue as well, but have been able to lay off that. so many good takes on Syracuse around the forum...but in the end, just see it as a FG/coin flip game. if i do add anything with this game, it will be made live. (or i'd tease purdue to the over lol). prolly better to just let it be.
lastly, i almost teased ULL to Ole Miss (more big rd favs) but the card was large enough.

GL tomorrow boys. Hope this Saturday is much better than the last. :cheers3:
 
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