Week 3 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Had a better week last week, 8-4-1. Thank goodness for that because Week 1 sucked. Total for the season sits at 12-11 with a coupIe pushes. know most, if not all, of the people who read this care much more about the content than the results, but I like to keep track for obvious reasons. Thanks as always to everyone that reads and comments. I hope you know how enjoyable it is for me to have the interaction.

I'll also say this: Thank goodness for this diversion. Sometimes it's really useful to be able to lose yourself in research or analysis or whatever you like to do that keeps your mind occupied. It's really come in handy the last day or so and will continue to for the foreseeable future. On to the week.

Houston -4 WIN
New Mexico +16 WIN
Georgia Tech +3 WIN
Georgia -3.5 LOSS
South Alabama +26 WIN
Pitt -7.5 LOSS
Oregon State +23.5 LOSS
Miami(FL) -17.5 WIN
Delaware +8 WIN
Western Michigan +28 LOSS
Arkansas +7 WIN
Vanderbilt +3 WIN
Wyoming +24 LOSS
Texas State +17.5 LOSS
Cal +2.5 WIN

9-6



1. @Houston -4 v Colorado: (BOL) I typically have been a fan of Deion, especially as a dog, but this is a bad spot for the Buffs in my opinion. Fort of all, I should acknowledge that I was very fortunate to cover my -23.5 bet on Colorado last week. The game was virtually a statistical standstill with Delaware actually notching a better yards per play mark. The Blue Hens missed a chip shot FG late to cover, and the Buffs had no business cashing that bet. DC Robert Livingston made a great impact last year during Colorado's 9 win season, but they have not looked good on that side of the ball this year. They gave up 320 yards rushing in week 1 to Haynes King and Georgia Tech and then followed that up by giving up 300 yards passing last week to Delaware. Houston hasn't set the world on fire on offense, but they are multiple, with Dean Connors averaging 6+ yards per carry on the ground and Connor Weigman playing efficiently. Ultimately though, the Houston defense is probably going to be most responsible for a cover here. They've given up nothing to the two teams they've played, and Colorado appears to have already tired of the Kaidon Salter experience. All 3 QBs that have played will probably play this week, and that's not a good recipe against a tough, well coached Houston defense on the road. Whoever starts will again likely be without Colorado's best weapon, WR Omarrion Miller. who only has 1 catch for 39 yards on the season so far. RB Dallan Hayden is also banged up, so the Buffs will be dipping into the depth to support the QBs. The Colorado defense is going to have to play very well to keep this game close, and they haven't shown much evidence that they can do that in two home games. I'm afraid that Willie Fritz and company might be able to lay a bit of a smack down on the Buffs here.

But for a brief stretch of offensive competence from the Buffs at the end of the first half, this one was a pretty stress free journey. Houston was sloppier on defense than I thought, but the staff difference was evident in the second half. Houston is dangerous now because they have some skill on offense. Dean Connors has to stay healthy though. He's clearly important to them. Weigman can run too!
 
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2. New Mexico +16(-115) @UCLA (BOL): Until I see it from this UCLA team, I'm going to assume they don't have it in them to cover a number like this. I've never been a believer in Nico Iamaleava, and he is pretty much their entire offense. He needs others to be the focal point, and at least to this point, there aren't any skill people in that 2 deep to be that, and he certainly doesn't have an effective offensive line. Defensively, it's a small sample size, but they got completely run over by both Utah and UNLV on the ground and are giving up almost 9 yards per attempt through the air. Now they face what looked to me to be a really well coached team in New Mexico, who brought in Jason Eck and his staff from Idaho(along with a slew of defensive players, including his son and leading tackler Jaxton Eck.) I got a chance to watch the New Mexico/Michigan game, and nothing went right for the Lobos. They couldn't throw it, they couldn't run it, they turned it over 3 times, Bryce Underwood looked like college football's next superstar, etc,etc. Despite all that, at no time did I feel that they were going to get blown off the field, and they didn't, losing only by 17 as a 30+ point favorite. I don't necessarily think UCLA is capable of having everything working, but even if they do, New Mexico is well coached enough to stay in this game. They beat Michigan in TOP, they committed almost no penalties(they lead the country so far in fewest penalties per game) and their special teams were a positive for them. If UCLA is going to cover this number, they are going to have to play at an efficiency level that they have not given us any evidence they can get to, and their staff will have to have them very well prepared. Count me skeptical.

I'm not gonna pile on about UCLA. They go to Northwestern coming up. They better be at their best in that one, or.....0-12 is on the table. This was a solid cap if I do say so myself. We really should focus on the job Eck is doing so far. Is teams aren't buttoned up, they're gonna lose to the Lobos, and if you're a mess like UCLA with a QB who is actually just an idea rather than an actual decent QB, you're gonna get embarrassed by them.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Had a better week last week, 8-4-1. Thank goodness for that because Week 1 sucked. Total for the season sits at 12-11 with a coupIe pushes. know most, if not all, of the people who read this care much more about the content than the results, but I like to keep track for obvious reasons. Thanks as always to everyone that reads and comments. I hope you know how enjoyable it is for me to have the interaction.

I'll also say this: Thank goodness for this diversion. Sometimes it's really useful to be able to lose yourself in research or analysis or whatever you like to do that keeps your mind occupied. It's really come in handy the last day or so and will continue to for the foreseeable future. On to the week.

1. @Houston -4 v Colorado: (BOL) I typically have been a fan of Deion, especially as a dog, but this is a bad spot for the Buffs in my opinion. Fort of all, I should acknowledge that I was very fortunate to cover my -23.5 bet on Colorado last week. The game was virtually a statistical standstill with Delaware actually notching a better yards per play mark. The Blue Hens missed a chip shot FG late to cover, and the Buffs had no business cashing that bet. DC Robert Livingston made a great impact last year during Colorado's 9 win season, but they have not looked good on that side of the ball this year. They gave up 320 yards rushing in week 1 to Haynes King and Georgia Tech and then followed that up by giving up 300 yards passing last week to Delaware. Houston hasn't set the world on fire on offense, but they are multiple, with Dean Connors averaging 6+ yards per carry on the ground and Connor Weigman playing efficiently. Ultimately though, the Houston defense is probably going to be most responsible for a cover here. They've given up nothing to the two teams they've played, and Colorado appears to have already tired of the Kaidon Salter experience. All 3 QBs that have played will probably play this week, and that's not a good recipe against a tough, well coached Houston defense on the road. Whoever starts will again likely be without Colorado's best weapon, WR Omarrion Miller. who only has 1 catch for 39 yards on the season so far. RB Dallan Hayden is also banged up, so the Buffs will be dipping into the depth to support the QBs. The Colorado defense is going to have to play very well to keep this game close, and they haven't shown much evidence that they can do that in two home games. I'm afraid that Willie Fritz and company might be able to lay a bit of a smack down on the Buffs here.
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Like the play. I am going to watch and hope UH gets down a TD early and try to take them at -1 or better
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. New Mexico +16(-115) @UCLA (BOL): Until I see it from this UCLA team, I'm going to assume they don't have it in them to cover a number like this. I've never been a believer in Nico Iamaleava, and he is pretty much their entire offense. He needs others to be the focal point, and at least to this point, there aren't any skill people in that 2 deep to be that, and he certainly doesn't have an effective offensive line. Defensively, it's a small sample size, but they got completely run over by both Utah and UNLV on the ground and are giving up almost 9 yards per attempt through the air. Now they face what looked to me to be a really well coached team in New Mexico, who brought in Jason Eck and his staff from Idaho(along with a slew of defensive players, including his son and leading tackler Jaxton Eck.) I got a chance to watch the New Mexico/Michigan game, and nothing went right for the Lobos. They couldn't throw it, they couldn't run it, they turned it over 3 times, Bryce Underwood looked like college football's next superstar, etc,etc. Despite all that, at no time did I feel that they were going to get blown off the field, and they didn't, losing only by 17 as a 30+ point favorite. I don't necessarily think UCLA is capable of having everything working, but even if they do, New Mexico is well coached enough to stay in this game. They beat Michigan in TOP, they committed almost no penalties(they lead the country so far in fewest penalties per game) and their special teams were a positive for them. If UCLA is going to cover this number, they are going to have to play at an efficiency level that they have not given us any evidence they can get to, and their staff will have to have them very well prepared. Count me skeptical.
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I like it, Br@ss. I gotta think UCLA will be happy with a victory of any kind, after their horrible first 2 games. Beating any D-1 team by more than 2 TDs seems a bit unreasonable to ask of them.
I was unable to focus on CFB in the past couple weeks. It feels great to settle in for a weekend of CFB, with your plays in hand. Looking forward to seeing the rest of them. Good luck!
 
sevenpointroaddog said:
I like it, Br@ss. I gotta think UCLA will be happy with a victory of any kind, after their horrible first 2 games. Beating any D-1 team by more than 2 TDs seems a bit unreasonable to ask of them.
I was unable to focus on CFB in the past couple weeks. It feels great to settle in for a weekend of CFB, with your plays in hand. Looking forward to seeing the rest of them. Good luck!
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Thanks SPRD! Always appreciate you checking in!
 
3. @Georgia Tech +3 v Clemson : (BOL) I double checked this one to make sure it wasn't in that stupid dome in Atlanta, but not to fear, it's at Bobby Dodd stadium. Haynes King didn't play last week against whatever cream puff the Yellowjackets played last week, but it didn't matter because they piled up 600+ using backup Aaron Philo who throws it perhaps better than King does. Make no mistake though, King is the man here, and in my opinion, one of the most underrated QBs in the country. I maintain that almost all of the good feelings generated in the market for Clemson during the pre season was based almost entirely on the fact that they "looked good" in the playoff last year at Texas. Never mind they lost and failed to cover a 13.5 spread. They looked good! Klubnik didn't have a bunch of giveaways! They weren't a very good team last year, losing 3 times and being close to another couple more. They cannot run the ball against good competition, struggling to get a consistent push even last week against Troy. Klubnik improved a lot last year, but has been pretty ordinary so far this year. He'll be without Antonio Williams again, and Clemson has a couple other starters who have been recently ruled out. Georgia Tech is a great dog under Key, and although almost all the value has eroded from this line, I still lean to Tech grabbing this one outright. King and Jamal Haynes have both looked good running the ball, and I think they'll be effective here. Ga Tech as a dog has always been a good play, so I'll ride it.

Nice win for the Wreck, but the play that made it sweaty at the end was that horrible fucking angle the DB took on the long Wesco TD. Key proved his worth in this one. I don't think he wanted a FG THAT long, but he managed the last drive well, and that ST unit executed flawlessly and under control. That's evidence of great preparation. Klubnik looking like the Klubnik of yore as far as finding a way to give the ball away enough to lose.
 
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4. Georgia -3.5 @Tennessee (BOL): This is more of a feel play than anything based on this year's results because, frankly, Georgia did what they always due when favored big: They staggered through the game and failed to cover. The question now is: Have the Dawgs been sandbagging? Could be, but we all know that Georgia is probably the best candidate to win the SEC based on talent. Rumors are that they like their skill position talent as much as at ny time in the past severl years. Their defense looks nasty again, and since these coaches have been at their current spots, Smart has buried Heupel. I think I read that they've passed midfield something like 5 times in the last 3 years in this game. Tennessee is still banged up in the secondary, and they didn't exactly set the world on fire defensively when they gave up 386 yards to Syracuse. I'd be surprised if they lost this game, and there's quite a bit of value after that line move.

Credit to Tennessee here. I didn't think Georgia would be flummoxed by the pace, but they were. I figured the Vols would be no worse off with Aguilar but I was way off. They're exponentially better with Aguilar. By a power of a million. Stockton showed us some things too, however, and the talk about the UGA wide receivers being a major force was not exaggerated. Nice to see old buddy Josh McCray do what he does at the end as well. One other thing: Smart needs to get his DBs in a room and start at the Kindergarten level of the fundamentals of pass coverage, because it appears they have absolutely no idea what pass coverage even means.
 
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5. South Alabama +26 @Auburn: (BR): Look ahead spot for Auburn here as they plan for Oklahoma in Norman next week. The Jags played well at home against Tulane last week and they have some firepower with Bishop Davenport, who has looked pretty good so far, and Devin Volsin at WR who is currently grading out in the top 5 among wide receiver grades at PFF. I intended to fade Auburn off their Baylor win, but this is the first chance I'm getting. If USA can slow down Jackson Arnold's running prowess, I'm still not convinced he can beat people through the air, despite the good receivers he has. Auburn's defense gave up huge chunks of yards against Baylor, but they'll have to really buttoned up if they're going to cover a big spread like this against a competent team. It would be very Auburn-like, especially under Freeze, if they threw out a clunker in a spot like this. They'll have to prove it to me that they can be resourceful. They've done it once, let's see if they can do it twice.

Auburn had some success, got satisfied and fucked around, and USA was good enough to easily get under the number. Too many points here for sure.
 
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6. Pittsburgh -7.5 @West Virginia: (BOL): There's risk here because this is a rivalry game, but i can't see how West Virginia keeps up in this one. It's a total rebuild for Rich Rod here, and their first real test was a major downer. They traveled to Athens, Ohio and lost outright to the Bobcats, which isn't a huge indictment given the circumstances. However, Ohio's defense is completely rebuilding and was fresh off getting torched by Rutgers the week before, and all the Mountaineers could muster was 250 yards of offense. Nico Marichol looked inept, and the only players who had any juice were RB Jahiem White, who is their best player, and WR Jaden Bray, who caught 4 passes for 69 yards. The problem is that both of those guys had major injuries in the game and will be out indefinitely. Nico Marichol cannot carry the mail for this team and their defense isn't going to win them any games either. Last week Parker Navarro was not on his game, and they still lost. Pitt's offense has looked very good under Eli Holstein thus far, much like they did early last year. Desmond Reid is a playmaker at RB and the Narduzzi defenses are always solid. They got off to a good start defensively by figuring out Central Michigan's confusing run defense last week. We should also remember that Pitt has been a great road dog, going 9-2 in that role since 2021.

Bad call here. I forced this because of Narduzzi's road favorite history but not many of those wins were more than a TD spread like this one was. Pitt still had this covered with 4 minutes left but fell apart. In a game like this against a coach who knows what he's doing, we should all know there are better options on the board.
 
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7. Oregon State +23.5 @Texas Tech: (BOL) The hype for the Red Raiders is plentiful, and I can understand why because they loaded up in the portal, and the additions were significant, especially on defense. Having said that, they couldn't possibly be more untested, as their 2 games thus far have been with Kent State and Arkansas Pine Bluff, perhaps the ultimate in tomato can scheduling. They are moving up in class this week, while the Beavs have played much better competition. They are 0-2, but the loss to Fresno was very misleading. They outgained the Bulldogs by 210 yards and Maalik Murphy threw for 388 yards. He has 2 very capable receivers in Trent Walker and Taz Reddicks, both of whom have 12 or more receptions. Major look ahead spot for Texas Tech as they travel to Utah next week, so they will be careful with their guys. I haven't seen anyone interested in the Beavs this week, mostly due to their slow start, but they look to me to be a team that can at least compete on offense. I think they might catch the Raiders napping.

I don't know what happened to Oregon State, but they didn't show up. Maybe it was the delay? Are they that bad? Is Tech that good? I'm not sure. Oregon State got blitzed though and they just kind of sat back and took it. Trent Bray didn't represent himself well there. Public had a winner on that one.
 
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8. @Miami(Fla) -17.5 v South Florida: I was looking for reasons to take that gaggle of points, but I surprisingly landed on the other side. It's a bad spot for USF for a couple of reasons. First, USF can lose this game and still be in fine position for the group of 5 playoff. I'm not saying that USF is going to mail this in, absolutely not, but if they fall behind, they'll have justification for not being too heartbroken about it, and if they are going to beat Miami the week after beating Florida, make no mistake, their motivations cannot be compromised. Also, Miami is a hellacious team to be facing after wins against Boise and at Florida. Their lines of scrimmage are big and strong, so much so that you could make a case that Miami bludgeoned the Irish. Their wide receivers also look good and Carson Beck has been very good. Also, there is a pedigree with USF over the past couple of years to take a couple massive blowouts a year. Last year, this Miami squad put it on them 50-15, and I think Miami's a better team this year than last. Again, it's going to be hard for USF to get much going on offense, and neither of their boxscores showed any kind of dominance. This looks like a very tough ask for the Bulls. 17.5 is a lot, but that can erode quick.

This went about how a lot of people figured it would. Bulls ran out of gas, saw the bright side and said, "we're still ahead in the grans scheme of things." So they'll live to fight another day, and if they take care of business from here on out, they'll be in the playoff. How about that Canes offense though? 8.5 yards per play? The only downside was a couple of picks by Beck, but he was at 12 yards per pass attempt. USF ain't chopped liver on D either.
 
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9. @Delaware +8 v UCONN: (BR) I know UCONN is a fun team to bet on, and they won a bunch of games against carefully selected patsies last year, but I'm not interested in them as a significant road favorite. They should have beaten Syracuse but this Syracuse team can't stop anyone. Delaware has been a lot better that most people would have expected in their first crack at FBS. The results weren't there against Colorado, but they played the Buffs to a standstill and the QB Minicucci is not afraid to air it out, piling up 312 yards on only 18 completions against the Buffs. UCONN will probably run it better than Colorado did, but the Blue Hens did hold the Buffs to only 3.7 yards per carry even after you take sacks out. Sometimes these little stadiums are a hard place to figure out. I think Delaware is going to make it tough on UCONN.

Really glad the Hens won because they got hosed on a couple calls in the 4th Q. (Yes, I watched, LOL). Their offense is good. Ultimately it's tough for a team like UCONN, with some pretty decent players but not much depth, to go on the road and handle anyone that isn't among the dregs, and Delaware is definitely not.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
3. @Georgia Tech +3 v Clemson : (BOL) I double checked this one to make sure it wasn't in that stupid dome in Atlanta, but not to fear, it's at Bobby Dodd stadium. Haynes King didn't play last week against whatever cream puff the Yellowjackets played last week, but it didn't matter because they piled up 600+ using backup Aaron Philo who throws it perhaps better than King does. Make no mistake though, King is the man here, and in my opinion, one of the most underrated QBs in the country. I maintain that almost all of the good feelings generated in the market for Clemson during the pre season was based almost entirely on the fact that they "looked good" in the playoff last year at Texas. Never mind they lost and failed to cover a 13.5 spread. They looked good! Klubnik didn't have a bunch of giveaways! They weren't a very good team last year, losing 3 times and being close to another couple more. They cannot run the ball against good competition, struggling to get a consistent push even last week against Troy. Klubnik improved a lot last year, but has been pretty ordinary so far this year. He'll be without Antonio Williams again, and Clemson has a couple other starters who have been recently ruled out. Georgia Tech is a great dog under Key, and although almost all the value has eroded from this line, I still lean to Tech grabbing this one outright. King and Jamal Haynes have both looked good running the ball, and I think they'll be effective here. Ga Tech as a dog has always been a good play, so I'll ride it.
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I hate the price but for sure only way I’d play it, although I might be more looking at king or hayes rushing props.
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. @Delaware +8 v UCONN: (BR) I know UCONN is a fun team to bet on, and they won a bunch of games against carefully selected patsies last year, but I'm not interested in them as a significant road favorite. They should have beaten Syracuse but this Syracuse team can't stop anyone. Delaware has been a lot better that most people would have expected in their first crack at FBS. The results weren't there against Colorado, but they played the Buffs to a standstill and the QB Minicucci is not afraid to air it out, piling up 312 yards on only 18 completions against the Buffs. UCONN will probably run it better than Colorado did, but the Blue Hens did hold the Buffs to only 3.7 yards per carry even after you take sacks out. Sometimes these little stadiums are a hard place to figure out. I think Delaware is going to make it tough on UCONN.
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Love this one
 
10. Western Michigan +28(-114) @Illinois: (BOL) Guys, I know it looks like I'm emotionally fading my own team here(I'm likely to repeat the drill next week at Indiana too), but this is a legit really bad spot for the Illini. A bit of an inflated final score last week against Duke and a look ahead to Indiana, which is keeping out a couple of key guys for this one. By the way, all these losers lamenting their failed bets when fading Illinois last week pointing to the turnovers are a bunch of whiny assholes. Illinois had 292 yards of offense in the 2nd half and scored 4 TDs and 1 FG on their 5 second half possessions. That's called annihilation after 2nd half adjustments my friends. "But, but.... they got sacked a lot!!!" Pipe down nerd. But I digress. WMU hasn't looked bad in their two games, making things tough on Michigan State in week 1 and losing in the final minutes last week at home to North Texas, who a lot of people are high on this year. Frankly, if Illinois covers this game they probably played guys too long, unless they get a couple defensive scores or something. The one area Bielema is not strong in from an ATS perspective is as a home favorite (7-10-1) and he had a couple last year that covered that probably should not have (CMU comes to mind in a similar scenario to this.) 28 is a lot. I would have thought 24 or so.

I don't know what Bielema is doing at halftime, but this is the second week in a row that Illinois looked like shit(on the offensive line mostly) in the first half, only to come out in the second half and just steamroll people. WMU was inept but the Illinois defense is sound. It was a bad situational spot, but WMU couldn't play along with a few points. The Broncos getting stopped cold at the 1 yard line at the end of the first half was probably the death knell for this cover.
 
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2daBank said:
I hate the price but for sure only way I’d play it, although I might be more looking at king or hayes rushing props.
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No doubt. There's a few that I got better numbers earlier in the week. This is a bad number but I'd probably play it as long as GT is getting points.
 
11. Arkansas +7 (-120) @Ole Miss (BR): Decided to buy this one to 7. I'm a little nervous on this one because I think just about everyone is on the Hogs here, but there's a lot of good reason for it. First of all, Pittman is among the best in college football as a road dog(13-4 ATS since he got to Arkansas), and the matchup here looks good for Arkansas. Austin Simmons is banged up for Ole Miss, but he's kind of been boom or bust/mistake prone anyway even if he does play. Arkansas hasn't played anyone but that Petrino offense has put up some eye popping numbers with Taylen Green running and hitting former Charlotte stud O'Mega Blake(nice name) downfield at will. RB Mike Washington has looked untackle-able(if that's a word) getting 10 yards per carry and shaking tackles regularly per PFF. They'll be challenged on defense for sure, but I like the DC Travis Williams, who has been able o scheme up some athletic defecits for the Hogs in the past in these road dog games. Not sold on the Ole Miss defense as they lost just about everyone from last year and Kntucky's offense looked competent against them last week which IMO is not a good sign. I'll trust Pittman with the points here. If nothing else, major backdoor potential with that offense.

526-475 in total yards, so both defenses are going to get torched by good offenses this year, but they can both score. Arkansas lost a lot in the portal but they have playmakers all over that offense and Petrino's scheme almost never gets corralled. How problem with Austin Simmons being out because Chambliss looked fantastic..as good as they could have hoped. Tough break on the late fumble for the Hogs because they were inevitably going to score on that last drive, but that's what the Hogs do. I saw that this went all the under 5 by kick, so that was a bad beat for those who got that number.
 
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12. Vanderbilt +3.5(-121) @South Carolina (BR): Here's another one you can buy to -120 that previously sunk like a stone. Bettors were more anxious to bet this than a fat guy in a buffet line, and I get it. Very seldom do you get clearer data points at this point in the year than both Vandy and South Carolina having played a common opponent in Virginia Tech. The second half of Vandy's game with the Hokies was pretty devastating for Brent Pry. It was such a 2nd half adjustment coaching mismatch that everyone at Virginia Tech has to know "there are better alternatives out there" to be very kind. The second half was man v infant..there's no point in going over the numbers out of respect for Pry's family. South Carolina on the other hand was kind of lucky to beat VT, and they stole the cover thanks to a couple big plays. They looked even worse last week against South Carolina State, managing only 253 yards and 4 yards per play. Any objective examination of the results this year would tell you Vandy is easily the better team, but South Carolina is ranked and people love Sellers(me too) so South Carolina is favored at home. I'm skeptical about the Cocks though, because they the miss Rocket Sanders and that defense is missing 4-5 pros from last year. We get Vandy in a road dog role, which Pavia has not failed to produce in since he's been in Nashville(4-0). South Carolina is a bear to play in Columbia, but Vandy can handle it.

Here's another team that seems unstoppable in the second half. My goodness, Vandy is a machine. They looked bad on D early and Sellers getting hurt was the main reason for this margin, but they were clearly the better squad as we suspected. Anyone who doesn't play Vandy as a road dog is making this harder than it needs to be. I'm still skeptical that they will be able to cover big spreads as a favorite, but if you have flaws, you're going to know about them after you play Vandy.
 
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Gonna probably add 3 more but have some things to accomplish this morning. I'll put the numbers in the initial post of the thread now and write them up later.

Couple thoughts on big ones that I'm not playing.

Florida/LSU. Most people I read are on Florida here, but I'm not sold on that side at all. There's basically no value on Florida at 7 after that loss last week, as the look ahead lines were in the same area. prior to last week. It's almost as if the bounce back theory was worked into the line. Also, this is not a bad spot for LSU at all. They got their letdown spot out of the way last week against Tech and probably still remember getting embarrassed by the Gators last year. On the other side, Florida is getting Caleb Banks back on the DL and LSU has some injuries I'm not wild about so I'm not laying it either.

I have no opinion on ND/A&M. None. Marcel Reed has looked like he can throw and I love Concepcion for the Aggies but I have no interest in fading that ND running game and Freeman off a bye. Will not do that.
 
Good night last night! UH out to early lead and I had to regret not getting a wager. Keep it up
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. @Georgia Tech +3 v Clemson : (BOL) I double checked this one to make sure it wasn't in that stupid dome in Atlanta, but not to fear, it's at Bobby Dodd stadium. Haynes King didn't play last week against whatever cream puff the Yellowjackets played last week, but it didn't matter because they piled up 600+ using backup Aaron Philo who throws it perhaps better than King does. Make no mistake though, King is the man here, and in my opinion, one of the most underrated QBs in the country. I maintain that almost all of the good feelings generated in the market for Clemson during the pre season was based almost entirely on the fact that they "looked good" in the playoff last year at Texas. Never mind they lost and failed to cover a 13.5 spread. They looked good! Klubnik didn't have a bunch of giveaways! They weren't a very good team last year, losing 3 times and being close to another couple more. They cannot run the ball against good competition, struggling to get a consistent push even last week against Troy. Klubnik improved a lot last year, but has been pretty ordinary so far this year. He'll be without Antonio Williams again, and Clemson has a couple other starters who have been recently ruled out. Georgia Tech is a great dog under Key, and although almost all the value has eroded from this line, I still lean to Tech grabbing this one outright. King and Jamal Haynes have both looked good running the ball, and I think they'll be effective here. Ga Tech as a dog has always been a good play, so I'll ride it.
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This is a spot in which Clemson usually plays poorly, about 12 points worse than the line. If I could stomach it, I would definitely have a substantial wager on Tech.
 
M.W. said:
This is a spot in which Clemson usually plays poorly, about 12 points worse than the line. If I could stomach it, I would definitely have a substantial wager on Tech.
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The last thing I want to see is MW disagreeing with a Clemson play either way. My fingers were crossed.
 
13. @Wyoming +24(-113) v Utah (BOL): I'm a big admirer of Utah n general this year and certainly have the proper respect for what Devon Dampier can do to a defense, but this is a non-ideal spot for Utah, and one that seems a bit tricky to me. Kaden Anderson is a significant upgrade over what Wyoming has been trotting out there at QB up until he started playing in the second half of last year. He averaged 8+ yards per attempt last year and he's developed a hell of a downfield connection with WR Chris Durr this year, who already has 12 catches at 20+ yards per reception. It's been against mostly weak competition(Northern Iowa isn't terrible) but Evan Swoboda, the clown they had out there for most of last year couldn't put up the numbers Anderson has in the wettest of his wet dreams. Also, defensively they've given up nothing so far. I'm not saying they'll hold down Dampier, but they'll put up enough resistance to make a spread this high difficult for the Utes to get to and the offense has a chance to throw a couple scores up themselves. Laramie is always a tough place to play, the grass is long and it's almost 10,000 feet up there. Utah's looked good, but New Mexico just did the same thing they did against the team their current rep is based on. If Utah blows them out, I'll stand up and take notice because this looks like too many points, a line probably based on the lion's share of Wyoming's results from last year, which were pre Anderson.

This went mostly as I thought it would for the majority of the game, save the offensive competence for Wyoming. When Wyoming scored late but MISSED the 2 pointer, I knew the door was open. However, we were burned by the late front door cover that no self respecting gambler would ever expect when laying points. Utah was trying to run out the clock at the end and the guy scores from 11 yards out with a minute left. They could have taken knees, they didn't. If Wyoming hold them to 8 or 9 yards per rush on the last drive instead of completely laying down, Utah runs out of time. The first really bad beat of the year for me. Yardage was 5XX-2XX but Wyoming was the right side. Makes up for the gift I got for Colorado/Delaware last week and the Oregon cover at Michigan I lucked into last year.
 
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14. Texas State +17.5 @Arizona State (BOL): I loved Sam Leavitt as a "complimentary" QB for the Sun Devils last year. With Cam Skattebo being the focal point, Leavitt could pepper in some throws here and there to Jordyn Tyson and use his legs, which he's really good at, especially when he had Skattebo there to take attention away from him. The question for this year was whether or not he could be the main man. He's kind of proving that if they need to rely on him, he might not be able to carry them to the heights expected from a preseason top 10 or 12 team. So far this year he's got a 3/3 ratio and is only averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. Tyson has been good, but on a lot of short throws. Now they're coming off a loss so my guess is the line indicates a bounce back spot, but this Texas State offense appears to be no joke. GJ Kinne has had a great offense for the past two years, and this year looks pretty similar to the last 2. New QB Brad Jackson has been very efficient, and they really proved themselves last week by winning outright at UTSA, beating the AAC contenders for the second year in a row. Defensively, they are going to need to shore up their run defense because ASU will be able to run it on them, but of they can get a series of downs per possession where they can get a TFL or a couple plays from their line, I think the offense will be able to put up enough points to keep this a game. In my opinion, the Bobcats look like one of the top tier teams in the Sun Belt, so I think they can hang with the Sun Devils here.

Still have to review this one, but Texas State had a 2 out of 10 performance and ASU had a 9 out of 10 performance and we lost the cover by about a point. Just needed some evidence of what these two teams actually are to show up and we would have been ok. It happens. Again, that's just my initial impression from what I saw for the first 2 and a half quarters before I fell asleep in my chair.
 
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15. @Cal +2.5 v Minnesota: (BOL) Anyone who's familiar with my acumen would know that I would be on Justin Wilcox in a game like this. He's 13-5-1 as a home dog since he arrived at Cal and is 8-1 ATS as a non conference dog of any kind over that same period. Wilcox had a lot of work to do coming into the season because he had a mass exodus of kids leaving the program like rats off a sinking ship, but he's brought in some players in the portal and it appears he hit big on his freshman QB who I'm going to call JKS because I don't want to type that many letters. JKS has been very good, and it's no surprise he beat out the skilless Devin Brown for the job. Anyone who watched his debut knew he was a special QB. Hopefully for Cal's sake he doesn't turn into a pumpkin against a better defense like Minnesota's. In addition to the QB, I don't think Wilcox could have done any better adding to his staff with Bryan Harsin and Nick Rolovich. Say what you will about Harsin at Auburn, but he built a great rep as Boise's OC and Rolovich ran a very solid program at Wazzou until his refusal to take the COVID shot ended his time there. Defensively, Cal is always competitive and Minnesota is likely to be without their best offensive player, RB Darius Taylor. They'll be playing at 9:30 on their body clocks on the west coast with a freshman making his first road start. Hard to pass up taking Cal in this spot.

Look out people, Cal is good. They handled the Gophers and I thought Drake Lindsey appropriated himself well. Statistically it was a pretty even game, but Cal was never really in trouble in this one. They always seemed in control. Keep an eye on the Bears. Not a terrible loss for the Gophers. Tough spot to win given the circumstances outlined above.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Ended up 9-6 with a couple close losses. Wyoming was my first bullshit beat of the year, which I should probably be grateful that it took the third week for it to happen. I'll have recaps soon. Thanks to everyone for reading.
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Great job, Br@ss. That 9-6 was better than it looks. The late night session was cruel- both Wyoming (for multiple reasons) and Texas St. When you go back to review Texas St., you'll see that they failed on TWO 2-point conversions in the second half (including the last score of the game) to miss the cover. Brutal.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
13. @Wyoming +24(-113) v Utah (BOL): I'm a big admirer of Utah n general this year and certainly have the proper respect for what Devon Dampier can do to a defense, but this is a non-ideal spot for Utah, and one that seems a bit tricky to me. Kaden Anderson is a significant upgrade over what Wyoming has been trotting out there at QB up until he started playing in the second half of last year. He averaged 8+ yards per attempt last year and he's developed a hell of a downfield connection with WR Chris Durr this year, who already has 12 catches at 20+ yards per reception. It's been against mostly weak competition(Northern Iowa isn't terrible) but Evan Swoboda, the clown they had out there for most of last year couldn't put up the numbers Anderson has in the wettest of his wet dreams. Also, defensively they've given up nothing so far. I'm not saying they'll hold down Dampier, but they'll put up enough resistance to make a spread this high difficult for the Utes to get to and the offense has a chance to throw a couple scores up themselves. Laramie is always a tough place to play, the grass is long and it's almost 10,000 feet up there. Utah's looked good, but New Mexico just did the same thing they did against the team their current rep is based on. If Utah blows them out, I'll stand up and take notice because this looks like too many points, a line probably based on the lion's share of Wyoming's results from last year, which were pre Anderson.

This went mostly as I thought it would for the majority of the game, save the offensive competence for Wyoming. When Wyoming scored late but MISSED the 2 pointer, I knew the door was open. However, we were burned by the late front door cover that no self respecting gambler would ever expect when laying points. Utah was trying to run out the clock at the end and the guy scores from 11 yards out with a minute left. They could have taken knees, they didn't. If Wyoming hold them to 8 or 9 yards per rush on the last drive instead of completely laying down, Utah runs out of time. The first really bad beat of the year for me. Yardage was 5XX-2XX but Wyoming was the right side. Makes up for the gift I got for Colorado/Delaware last week and the Oregon cover at Michigan I lucked into last year.
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I get the impression that Whittingham hates Wyoming because of whatever it was that happened with Joe Glenn way back when. I expected him to try to score at the end. And I was at +23.5.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Recaps done. Not much in depth, but they're in the posts that the plays are contained in.
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Great to see this. One of the things that really helped improve my handicapping a few years back was to go back and review my bets, no matter how painful it was. Its important to see what you got right, and more importantly, what you got wrong.
 
M.W. said:
I get the impression that Whittingham hates Wyoming because of whatever it was that happened with Joe Glenn way back when. I expected him to try to score at the end. And I was at +23.5.
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I remember that! He had just gotten to Utah, it was like 20 years ago. They ran it up on Wyoming and it was for something as innocuous as “We are gonna win tomorrow!!” at a pep rally or something. Very weird.
 
sevenpointroaddog said:
Great job, Br@ss. That 9-6 was better than it looks. The late night session was cruel- both Wyoming (for multiple reasons) and Texas St. When you go back to review Texas St., you'll see that they failed on TWO 2-point conversions in the second half (including the last score of the game) to miss the cover. Brutal.
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Thanks SPRD. Again, I’d say Texas State turned in a 2 maybe 3/10 performance. Usually when a team pretty much shits the bed, you’re 3-4 scores from covering. I’d probably bet them again.
 
Hulu said:
Great to see this. One of the things that really helped improve my handicapping a few years back was to go back and review my bets, no matter how painful it was. Its important to see what you got right, and more importantly, what you got wrong.
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Totally agree Hulu. Can’t bury your head in the sand. The worst tragedy is making mistakes and then not learning anything from them.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I remember that! He had just gotten to Utah, it was like 20 years ago. They ran it up on Wyoming and it was for something as innocuous as “We are gonna win tomorrow!!” at a pep rally or something. Very weird.
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I knew the score was 50-0 and Glenn was pissed off afterward, and I remembered he gave Whittingham the finger (after a late onside kick attempt), but I didn't know what motivated Whittingham.

www.espn.com

Wyoming coach says obscene gesture won't happen again

Wyoming coach says obscene gesture won't happen again
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
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