Week 3 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Week 2 was terrible, only 4-9-1, which after a sub .500 week 0/1 brings my season long total to 9-17-1. Frankly, in the 20+ years that I've been doing this, I've never gotten off to even close to as bad a start as this. A lot of the losses have been razor thin, and a bunch of them were probably on the right side, but who cares, 9-17 is atrocious. It's time for a bounce-back, at least a dead cat bounce if nothing else.

Syracuse -1.5 WIN
Georgia -24.5 WIN
Indiana -6 LOSS
Cal +12.5 WIN
UNLV -2.5 WIN
Auburn +3 LOSS
Troy +13.5 WIN
Georgia State -19.5 LOSS
Texas Tech +10.5 LOSS
Washington -3.5 WIN
Pitt -10.5 WIN
UTSA +12.5 LOSS
Miami(Fla) +6.5 LOSS Enter Cristobal, exit effective offense
Fresno +12 LOSS

7-7

1. @Syracuse -1.5 v Purdue: I just saw this one dip under 2, so I grabbed it. I usually look for ways to back Jeff Brohm when he's a road dog, but in most cases, Purdue is in a position where they can sneak up on people and has the benefit of a TD or better, so I'm not sure this game fits the spot where Brohm is at his best. Coming off a 9 win season, it just seems like the vibe isn't exactly the same with Purdue. For most of the opener against Penn State, the Boilers out played the Nittany Lions but that game seemed to have a sense of impending doom for the Boilers, even after they got the pick 6. It was almost like they were just waiting for an excuse to lose, and when Penn State put together that drive, they were obliged. Last year, Syracuse was very good to me as they found ways to cover relatively short spreads without winning, which kept them in a value position most weeks. They actually returned a ton, and I thought they were very lucky to get Robert Anae and the rest of the Bronco Mendenhall's offensive staff from UVa, but I thought the run-centric Garrett Schrader would have a tough time adapting to the downfield schemes of Anae. It's only been 2 weeks, but Syracuse's passing attack has looked fantastic. Schrader has been totally comfortable, and he's looked mechanically sound. the best part of it for the Cuse is that their run game is still as good as it was last year, as Sean Tucker is a pro at RB, and they have 4 OL back from last year. Defensively, the only guys not back from a defense that averaged giving up only 330 yards last year are 3 of the 4 DL, but they have 8 of their top 10 tacklers back and Purdue doesn't run the ball anyway. The Orange have looked great so far this year, and the demolition of Louisville in week one looks better after the Cards handled a solid UCF teams on the road. Ultimately, I think the books are still waiting for Syracuse to prove it before there's an adjustment, but I agree with this line move. I'm a fan of the Boilers and Brohm, but I think the home favorite (with a very solid home environment, especially against a passing team that will want to change calls at the line) is the better team here, and I'm eager to grab them while they still have some solid value.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2, Georgia -24.5 @South Carolina: It's definitely a risk to lay this many with a road favorite, especially against a team with a rep for being a live dog. Having said that, if I'm going to do it, it's going to be with this Georgia team. Since Kirby Smart has gotten there in 2016, the Dawgs ha ve gone 17-6 ATS as a road favorite, and since '19 they're 10-2. We all know about the Georgia defense, but the performance of their offense in week 1 against Oregon was ridiculously good. 7 TDs on their first 7 drives against a defense that most observers would have pegged as above average. Only a few short years ago, the Gamecocks walked into Athens and beat the Dawgs outright, so I don't think there's any chance Georgia isn't focused in this one. On the flip side, South Carolina has been steamrolled in the trenches in both of the games they've played. Georgia State ran roughshod on them in game one for more than 5 yards per carry, and Arkansas predictably did the same despite the fact that the Gamecocks crowded the box and dared them to pass. IN those two games Spencer Rattler has been sacked 9 times while the Gamecock defense has recorded only 2 sacks. Now these flimsy lines will be to war with the Georgia offensive and defensive fronts, and the Gamecocks have very little in the way of explosiveness other than Rattler, and he is likely to be running for his life. No QB fares well in that scenario, and especially Spencer Rattler. If Georgia comes in engaged, and I think they will, their physical superiority on the lines and athletically all over the field will allow Smart to name the score, and in most cases, when Georgia's on the road, that results in a cover.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. @ Indiana -6 (-112) v Western Kentucky: Well what do we have here? Another favorite, which I hate, and a favorite that went 2-10 last year to boot! What am I thinking??? I have seen very few examples of people on the Hoosiers in this one, but let me explain my thinking. First, Indiana is 2-0, and they've mostly played like shit in both games. In week one, they were admittedly lucky, both with fluky turnovers and horrific referee calls to be able to win a game against illinois in which they were dominated. In week 2, Idaho hopped out to a 10-0 lead and Indiana didn't right themselves until a flurry of points helped them to get the game in control towards the end of the third quarter. However, a closer look at what their opponents have done in their other games tells you a little bit of a story. In it's previous game against Washington State(who subsequently went into Madison and beat Wisconsin outright last week) Idaho played the Cougs to a standstill, with the game ending on a pick in the end zone as time expired for a 24-17 final. Illinois, has played Wyoming and Virginia, and in those games Brennan Armstrong(who last year was 100 yards short of being the all time single season passer in ACC history) and Andrew Peasley combined to go 18-56 for 210 yards, 0 TD and 3 INTs, good for 3.75 yards per attempt. In the game against Illinois, however, Connor Bazelek, while under pressure all day, only was sacked once and threw for 330 yards against a secondary that might have 3 NFL guys in it. Indiana is taking some shit for starting slow against Idaho(down 10-0 early) and for being lucky against Illinois, but 2 wins are 2 wins, which is even more impressive when you acknowledge they haven't played well yet. These two teams played last year in Bowling Green, KY, and I think we all can assume that Indiana was as bad last year as they've been in years, and WKU was about as good as they've been since Jeff Brohm was there, with Bailey Zappe breaking all kinds of records en route to a 9 win season and CUSA title game berth. Despite all of that, the Hoosiers won that game 33-31. This year, Inidana is obviously improved, and WKU is a shell of themselves, having lost Zappe, their top 3 receivers and OC Zack Kittley. Despite the fact they beat Hawaii 49-17 their last time out, they only outgained the Rainbows by 52 yards and struggled to beat Austin Peay the week before. Even taking last year into consideration, IU is 11-4 as a home favorite since 2017, and I think they'll keep it going here.

 

[2daBank]

Cuse one my favorite plays this week, glad you agree! The new OC has done wonders w Shrader as a passer, you gotta worry bout him and Tucker on the ground and now they making teams pay! Cuse way underrated imo.

 

[lvmike32]

3. @ Indiana -6 (-112) v Western Kentucky: Well what do we have here? Another favorite, which I hate, and a favorite that went 2-10 last year to boot! What am I thinking??? I have seen very few examples of people on the Hoosiers in this one, but let me explain my thinking. First, Indiana is 2-0, and they've mostly played like shit in both games. In week one, they were admittedly lucky, both with fluky turnovers and horrific referee calls to be able to win a game against illinois in which they were dominated. In week 2, Idaho hopped out to a 10-0 lead and Indiana didn't right themselves until a flurry of points helped them to get the game in control towards the end of the third quarter. However, a closer look at what their opponents have done in their other games tells you a little bit of a story. In it's previous game against Washington State(who subsequently went into Madison and beat Wisconsin outright last week) Idaho played the Cougs to a standstill, with the game ending on a pick in the end zone as time expired for a 24-17 final. Illinois, has played Wyoming and Virginia, and in those games Brennan Armstrong(who last year was 100 yards short of being the all time single season passer in ACC history) and Andrew Peasley combined to go 18-56 for 210 yards, 0 TD and 3 INTs, good for 3.75 yards per attempt. In the game against Illinois, however, Connor Bazelek, while under pressure all day, only was sacked once and threw for 330 yards against a secondary that might have 3 NFL guys in it. Indiana is taking some shit for starting slow against Idaho(down 10-0 early) and for being lucky against Illinois, but 2 wins are 2 wins, which is even more impressive when you acknowledge they haven't played well yet. These two teams played last year in Bowling Green, KY, and I think we all can assume that Indiana was as bad last year as they've been in years, and WKU was about as good as they've been since Jeff Brohm was there, with Bailey Zappe breaking all kinds of records en route to a 9 win season and CUSA title game berth. Despite all of that, the Hoosiers won that game 33-31. This year, Inidana is obviously improved, and WKU is a shell of themselves, having lost Zappe, their top 3 receivers and OC Zack Kittley. Despite the fact they beat Hawaii 49-17 their last time out, they only outgained the Rainbows by 52 yards and struggled to beat Austin Peay the week before. Even taking last year into consideration, IU is 11-4 as a home favorite since 2017, and I think they'll keep it going here.

Love this play and have 2u bet on it. Key to me is WK being a shell of LY. Didn't cover vs AP in opener and only led Hawaii 21 10 at half, scoring 0 in 1q. I know as i had WK in that one and had to sweat to q4 for cover. Line moved down ftom 8 but lot of sharps with you on this one. Gl

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. Cal +12.5 @Notre Dame: I am still absolutely kicking myself for not writing up Marshall last week against Notre Dame. I ended up crossing it out because Marshall's best player, RB Rasheem Ali was out for personal reasons. So Marshall just lined up and ran it down Notre Dame's throat anyway. There's really no point in making this more complicated than it is. Coming into the season, the Notre Dame offense with Tyler Buchner at QB was going to be challenged. The fact that Drew Pyne was unable to unseat Buchner, despite Buchner's huge deficiencies in throwing the ball, tell you what you need to know about Pyne. The difference in arm talent/throwing ability was not enough to offset the benefit of Buchner's running ability, which itself was overrated. As we now know, Pyne is forced into the lineup as a result of Buchner's injury, so they'll be leaning on him. They have to because the only dynamic player on their offense is TE Michael Mayer, and Justin Wilcox is certainly smart enough to scheme up a package to limit him. ND has no receivers who have established themselves as a threat, and their running backs haven't either. Cal is no great shakes on offense either, but they have a competent QB in Purdue transfer Jack Plummer. Wilcox certainly knows how to muck up a game, and he won't have to try hard to do it here. It shapes up to be a low scoring game, so the 12.5 is definitely attractive. Marcus Freeman needs to prove he can hammer competent teams...actually he needs to prove he can win a game. Until he does, ND is a great fade candidate, and I doubt very seriously that I'm in the minority in that opinion.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. @UNLV -2.5 v North Texas: I've seen some people on the Mean Green as a dog in this one, and although I kind of liked them coming in to the year, based on how they finished last year, I do not like them here. Their defense has been terrible. They gave up 400 yards to UTEP in week 1, whose offense has been completely nuetered by the loss of WR Jacob Cowing to Arizona. If UTEP could finish a drive they would have given up much more on the scoreboard than they did. The following week they were run out of the stadium by SMU, giving up almost 600 yards in the process. This past week they gave up 8.2 yards per pass attempt and almost 5 yards per carry against a bad FCS Texas Southern offense. UNLV has some playmakers on the perimeter with Ricky White and Kyle Williams, and Doug Brumfield has looked pretty good so far. Also, their defense stood tough against Cal's running game, and their new DC, who learned under the aforementioned Wilcox at Cal should be able to handle Austin Aune, who usually serves as a barrier to good offense in Denton than anything else. UNLV looks like it might be in the upper half of the Mountain West this year...I just don't see a Mean Green team with this defense being able to roll into Vegas and knock them off.

 

[Timh]

Brass - I have been short on time the last couple weeks with golf tournaments going on. Hope you have a great week and always appreciate your keen insight. I was debating Cal and you put me over the top. I'm going to ride with Terps at home this week at less than 3. Think they have improved a lot with their depth on the LOS and impressed with their skill players on offense. We will see how their pass D steps up to a challenge from SMU offense. BOL on the weekend.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Brass - I have been short on time the last couple weeks with golf tournaments going on. Hope you have a great week and always appreciate your keen insight. I was debating Cal and you put me over the top. I'm going to ride with Terps at home this week at less than 3. Think they have improved a lot with their depth on the LOS and impressed with their skill players on offense. We will see how their pass D steps up to a challenge from SMU offense. BOL on the weekend.

Thanks Timmy. The only thing I'm confident in with that Terps game is that there will be points. Nothing from me on a side in that one. BOL to you too.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. @Auburn +3 v Penn State: I realize that the environment at Auburn is a bit uncomfortable, but this ends up being somewhat of a principle play for me. I can't pass up the opportunity to fade a Big Ten team, and a somewhat slow one at that, against a legitimate SEC team with SEC talent. Last year I laid a short number with Penn State at home, and was lucky to cover it even though "Road Bo Nix" was playing QB for the Tigers. There isn't an upgrade over Nix in the QB spot for Auburn this year, and frankly, I hope Auburn doesn't try to throw it on Joey Porter Jr and the Penn State secondary, but they should have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The two Auburn running backs should have success against Penn State, and all indications are that Penn State, who struggled to run it against Purdue, certainly won't be able to run it on this Auburn front 7. Penn State has some competent receivers, but there's not a lot of big time playmaking ability there, so much of the weight of the offense is going to fall on Clifford's shoulders, and I don't think that's ideal for the Nittany Lions. This game should come down to the wire, so that makes the 3 points very valuable. The bottom line is that I am extremely hesitant to back a Big Ten squad laying points against an SEC stalwart. The SEC teams always get up for these games,. The Tigers will want to avoid the ridicule of giving up the goods at home to a Big Ten team.

 

[2daBank]

Brass - I have been short on time the last couple weeks with golf tournaments going on. Hope you have a great week and always appreciate your keen insight. I was debating Cal and you put me over the top. I'm going to ride with Terps at home this week at less than 3. Think they have improved a lot with their depth on the LOS and impressed with their skill players on offense. We will see how their pass D steps up to a challenge from SMU offense. BOL on the weekend.

I grabbed a bit of ya’ll qb ov 2.5 pass tds at plus money

 

[twinkie13]

6. @Auburn +3 v Penn State: I realize that the environment at Auburn is a bit uncomfortable, but this ends up being somewhat of a principle play for me. I can't pass up the opportunity to fade a Big Ten team, and a somewhat slow one at that, against a legitimate SEC team with SEC talent. Last year I laid a short number with Penn State at home, and was lucky to cover it even though "Road Bo Nix" was playing QB for the Tigers. There isn't an upgrade over Nix in the QB spot for Auburn this year, and frankly, I hope Auburn doesn't try to throw it on Joey Porter Jr and the Penn State secondary, but they should have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The two Auburn running backs should have success against Penn State, and all indications are that Penn State, who struggled to run it against Purdue, certainly won't be able to run it on this Auburn front 7. Penn State has some competent receivers, but there's not a lot of big time playmaking ability there, so much of the weight of the offense is going to fall on Clifford's shoulders, and I don't think that's ideal for the Nittany Lions. This game should come down to the wire, so that makes the 3 points very valuable. The bottom line is that I am extremely hesitant to back a Big Ten squad laying points against an SEC stalwart. The SEC teams always get up for these games,. The Tigers will want to avoid the ridicule of giving up the goods at home to a Big Ten team.

I think I may be with you here brother, as well.

Great write ups per usual! One of the best on the site I hope all is well!

 

[2daBank]

4. Cal +12.5 @Notre Dame: I am still absolutely kicking myself for not writing up Marshall last week against Notre Dame. I ended up crossing it out because Marshall's best player, RB Rasheem Ali was out for personal reasons. So Marshall just lined up and ran it down Notre Dame's throat anyway. There's really no point in making this more complicated than it is. Coming into the season, the Notre Dame offense with Tyler Buchner at QB was going to be challenged. The fact that Drew Pyne was unable to unseat Buchner, despite Buchner's huge deficiencies in throwing the ball, tell you what you need to know about Pyne. The difference in arm talent/throwing ability was not enough to offset the benefit of Buchner's running ability, which itself was overrated. As we now know, Pyne is forced into the lineup as a result of Buchner's injury, so they'll be leaning on him. They have to because the only dynamic player on their offense is TE Michael Mayer, and Justin Wilcox is certainly smart enough to scheme up a package to limit him. ND has no receivers who have established themselves as a threat, and their running backs haven't either. Cal is no great shakes on offense either, but they have a competent QB in Purdue transfer Jack Plummer. Wilcox certainly knows how to muck up a game, and he won't have to try hard to do it here. It shapes up to be a low scoring game, so the 12.5 is definitely attractive. Marcus Freeman needs to prove he can hammer competent teams...actually he needs to prove he can win a game. Until he does, ND is a great fade candidate, and I doubt very seriously that I'm in the minority in that opinion.

This a huge number for a freaking 40 total!

 

[Br@ssknux]

I think I may be with you here brother, as well.

Great write ups per usual! One of the best on the site I hope all is well!

Glad to hear Twink. Thanks as always for the kind words.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Troy +13.5 @Appy State: If you wait around a little longer this one might climb to 14. I'd do the same, but I want to get these on paper. This is a contrarian play at heart, but it's obviously a horrible spot for Appy State, what with GameDay forcing a trip to Boone in a week with few solid options. Troy is a pretty solid squad. I like how they've looked so far this year and I really like the hire they made with Sumrall coming from Kentucky. This is the kind of game that he can gum up Mark Stoops style and maybe blow everything up and pull out an outright. Troy actually has a lot of what you need to hang here. They aren't intimidated, they play with physicality so they won't get pushed around, they have a defense that can compete, and they have a QB in Gunnar Watson who has had good success throwing the ball. Just about anyone who lined up against Texas A&M last week was going to look good on defense, so we have to remember what Appy State's defense looked like the week before against North Carolina. We also have to remember that college kids are fickle and the siren song of patting yourself on the back might be a bit much for the Mountaineers. I think this game will be close.

 

[gps_3]

6. @Auburn +3 v Penn State: I realize that the environment at Auburn is a bit uncomfortable, but this ends up being somewhat of a principle play for me. I can't pass up the opportunity to fade a Big Ten team, and a somewhat slow one at that, against a legitimate SEC team with SEC talent. Last year I laid a short number with Penn State at home, and was lucky to cover it even though "Road Bo Nix" was playing QB for the Tigers. There isn't an upgrade over Nix in the QB spot for Auburn this year, and frankly, I hope Auburn doesn't try to throw it on Joey Porter Jr and the Penn State secondary, but they should have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The two Auburn running backs should have success against Penn State, and all indications are that Penn State, who struggled to run it against Purdue, certainly won't be able to run it on this Auburn front 7. Penn State has some competent receivers, but there's not a lot of big time playmaking ability there, so much of the weight of the offense is going to fall on Clifford's shoulders, and I don't think that's ideal for the Nittany Lions. This game should come down to the wire, so that makes the 3 points very valuable. The bottom line is that I am extremely hesitant to back a Big Ten squad laying points against an SEC stalwart. The SEC teams always get up for these games,. The Tigers will want to avoid the ridicule of giving up the goods at home to a Big Ten team.

AU's field is built on top of an Indian burial ground on top of an ancient egyptian tomb somehow. Weird shit happens there on the reg, and I expect it will continue here

 

[s--k]

What exactly is Auburn's QB situation and is it at least serviceable here?

 

[twinkie13]

What exactly is Auburn's QB situation and is it at least serviceable here?

It’s TJ Finley. Serviceable is a good word.

 

[s--k]

The one thing I vividly remember is that Finley led the comeback vs Georgia State (I actually wish I could forget it). But isn't there another QB I am hearing about, or reading about and are they splitting time, like how do they do it?

 

[Br@ssknux]

The one thing I vividly remember is that Finley led the comeback vs Georgia State (I actually wish I could forget it). But isn't there another QB I am hearing about, or reading about and are they splitting time, like how do they do it?

S--k,

They've played two QBs this year, TJ Finley and Robby Ashford. Finley is the starter and has taken the vast majority of the snaps. I haven't seen Ashford, but he has a bunch of rushing yards, and even when he's healthy, Finley is mostly a statue back there. Auburn's pass game has been bad so far this year. They've played Mercer and San Jose State and Finley has a 1/3 ratio. Auburn also brought in Zach Calzada from A&M, but the combination of his being banged up and also looking like Zach Calzada in practice had led to no game action for him so far this year. Despite all that, they've reportedly given him some first team reps in practice this week and are ready to use him if Finley uses up what will probably be a pretty short leash.

I could be off on some of this, but from what I've seen, that appears to be a synopsis of the situation.

 

[s--k]

Thanks

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. @Georgia State -19.5 v Charlotte: Every year there are a couple teams that establish themselves as among the very bottom of Division 1. Usually, those teams are so bad that it's impossible for the books to keep up with their lack of value and these teams go something like 1-11 against the spread. Charlotte is definitely one of the bottom 3 worst teams in FBS, especially after the injury to starting QB Chris Reynolds. Their backups have been terrible, and you can see the effect it's had on it's players. Georgia State comes in with a couple losses, but they've acquitted themselves very well against both of their opponents((UNC and South Carolina). They will get a major amount of class relief here as Charlotte isn't in much position for a turnaround, especially on offense. Georgia State is physical, they can run, and I think they'll continue the death march of a season for Charlotte. I think at the end of the year, you'll see Charlotte among the worst ATS records in the country.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Back in the AM

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

great thread. with you on UGA and Indiana. :shake:

i kept coming so close to playing Purdue, but you all make a great case for the Orange.
really wanted to play Aubbie too, and targeted this game last week, but just had too many questions/concerns with them.

i didn't play either though, so I hope you win them both Br@ss

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Texas Tech +10.5 @NC State: Like just about everyone else, I was pretty excited about NC State's prospects coming into the year. If you were skeptical of Clemson(which I am), they were the logical alternative for ACC futures with a ton of contributors back, including QB Devin Leary. Although it's hard to argue with his numbers from last year, I think they look a lot less explosive this year, and that was on display against ECU in week one, a game they were extremely fortunate to win. They were outgained in the game and needed a blocked punt and missed kicks from the Pirates to win. Offensively, they don't look very explosive, as they appear to miss the two solid running backs they had last year as well as Emeka Emezie at WR. Texas Tech's defense has been good thus far against the run, and they were good against the run last year too, holding 8 of their 12 opponents under 100 yards rushing. If it's up to Leary to provide all the offense, I don't know if that's great news for the Wolfpack. NcState's defense is loaded, and will certainly be their strength, but the one thing you can chalk up for Texas Tech and OC Zach Kittley is that they will get yards, much like ECU did in week one with Holton Ahlers. IN my opinion 10 is too much in this game, and there's a lot of pressure on NC State to prove that this is "the year". There's a potential Game Day date set for 2 weeks from now against Clemson, "as long as nobody loses and screws it up", and NC State has to be looking ahead to that one knowing it's their ticket to potential playoff contention. If NC State takes care of business and dispatches the Red Raiders, I'll tip my cap, but good but not great programs like NC State tend to feel the pressure in games like this.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10 @Washington -3.5 v Michigan State: Like everyone else, I'm high on former Fresno coach and new Huskies head man Kalen DeBoer. I'm stating the obvious when I say that Washington is probably enjoying the most profound coaching upgrade in the country going from the derelict Jimmy Lake to DeBoer. A series of events that I found interesting was what happened soon after KDB took the job in Seattle. Obviously, when you take a new job, as a coach, the first thing you need to figure out after you get your staff visualized is who is going to be your QB. At Fresno, he had a great one in Jake Haener, who just happened to have some eligibility left. Pretty much everyone assumed Haener would be following his coach to Seattle, especially Haener, who all but announced on his social media accounts that he was off to Seattle and was dropping Fresno like a bad habit. But a funny thing happened: About a week later, Haener out of nowhere made an about face and basically said "Oh yeah, all that Washington stuff, forget about that. Can't wait to finish my time off in Fresno!". Chances are, DeBoer probably told Haener that he had someone else in mind for the QB job, and lo and behold a few days later Michael Penix, DeBoer's old buddy from his OC days in Indiana transfers to Washington. That tells me that DeBoer knew that Penix was the perfect fit for what he wanted to do in Seattle, which is a huge compliment for Penix because we all know how good Haener is. So far De Boer has been proven right as Washington's offense has torched the two teams they've played, and before you say, well yeah, that's only Kent and Portland State", remember that Kent held Oklahoma scoreless until the final minute of the first half last week, and Portland State dominated Mountain West member and decent squad San Jose State to the tune of allowing only 288 total yards when they played. On the flip side, MSU is coming off the charmed season of all charmed seasons, having won 10 games and earning Mel Tucker the most ridiculous contract extension in the history of team sports. Offensively, they miss Kenneth Walker and WR Nailor, As a result, the Spartan offense is now heavily reliant on my old neighbor Peyton Thorne at QB, and although he's a pretty good QB, with limited weapons, he's a little limited himself. He's absolutely lost without Jaden Reed, his old HS teammate in Naperville, as he hasn't looked very good throwing to anyone else in their first two MAC tuneups. Also, Reed is really banged up, having cut his back badly sliding into the bench last week. He might play, but he's not 100%. Michigan State's defense remains terrible in the secondary, and they were helpless even at their best last year when they played good QBs. That would actually include Penix, who torched them in Tucker's first year in 2020, nd definitely would include any DeBoer coached offense. This is a tough spot for MSU, we all know how difficult Huskie stadium can be, and I think this is going to be a bit of a coming out party for the Huskies. I was hoping the line would get back to 3 but that doesn't look likely, so I pulled the trigger at 3.5. Sorry for the length on this one.

 

[booksbestfriend]

10 @Washington -3.5 v Michigan State: Like everyone else, I'm high on former Fresno coach and new Huskies head man Kalen DeBoer. I'm stating the obvious when I say that Washington is probably enjoying the most profound coaching upgrade in the country going from the derelict Jimmy Lake to DeBoer. A series of events that I found interesting was what happened soon after KDB took the job in Seattle. Obviously, when you take a new job, as a coach, the first thing you need to figure out after you get your staff visualized is who is going to be your QB. At Fresno, he had a great one in Jake Haener, who just happened to have some eligibility left. Pretty much everyone assumed Haener would be following his coach to Seattle, especially Haener, who all but announced on his social media accounts that he was off to Seattle and was dropping Fresno like a bad habit. But a funny thing happened: About a week later, Haener out of nowhere made an about face and basically said "Oh yeah, all that Washington stuff, forget about that. Can't wait to finish my time off in Fresno!". Chances are, DeBoer probably told Haener that he had someone else in mind for the QB job, and lo and behold a few days later Michael Penix, DeBoer's old buddy from his OC days in Indiana transfers to Washington. That tells me that DeBoer knew that Penix was the perfect fit for what he wanted to do in Seattle, which is a huge compliment for Penix because we all know how good Haener is. So far De Boer has been proven right as Washington's offense has torched the two teams they've played, and before you say, well yeah, that's only Kent and Portland State", remember that Kent held Oklahoma scoreless until the final minute of the first half last week, and Portland State dominated Mountain West member and decent squad San Jose State to the tune of allowing only 288 total yards when they played. On the flip side, MSU is coming off the charmed season of all charmed seasons, having won 10 games and earning Mel Tucker the most ridiculous contract extension in the history of team sports. Offensively, they miss Kenneth Walker and WR Nailor, As a result, the Spartan offense is now heavily reliant on my old neighbor Peyton Thorne at QB, and although he's a pretty good QB, with limited weapons, he's a little limited himself. He's absolutely lost without Jaden Reed, his old HS teammate in Naperville, as he hasn't looked very good throwing to anyone else in their first two MAC tuneups. Also, Reed is really banged up, having cut his back badly sliding into the bench last week. He might play, but he's not 100%. Michigan State's defense remains terrible in the secondary, and they were helpless even at their best last year when they played good QBs. That would actually include Penix, who torched them in Tucker's first year in 2020, nd definitely would include any DeBoer coached offense. This is a tough spot for MSU, we all know how difficult Huskie stadium can be, and I think this is going to be a bit of a coming out party for the Huskies. I was hoping the line would get back to 3 but that doesn't look likely, so I pulled the trigger at 3.5. Sorry for the length on this one.

Sold, I'm riding along

 

[carolinablue]

3. @ Indiana -6 (-112) v Western Kentucky: Well what do we have here? Another favorite, which I hate, and a favorite that went 2-10 last year to boot! What am I thinking??? I have seen very few examples of people on the Hoosiers in this one, but let me explain my thinking. First, Indiana is 2-0, and they've mostly played like shit in both games. In week one, they were admittedly lucky, both with fluky turnovers and horrific referee calls to be able to win a game against illinois in which they were dominated. In week 2, Idaho hopped out to a 10-0 lead and Indiana didn't right themselves until a flurry of points helped them to get the game in control towards the end of the third quarter. However, a closer look at what their opponents have done in their other games tells you a little bit of a story. In it's previous game against Washington State(who subsequently went into Madison and beat Wisconsin outright last week) Idaho played the Cougs to a standstill, with the game ending on a pick in the end zone as time expired for a 24-17 final. Illinois, has played Wyoming and Virginia, and in those games Brennan Armstrong(who last year was 100 yards short of being the all time single season passer in ACC history) and Andrew Peasley combined to go 18-56 for 210 yards, 0 TD and 3 INTs, good for 3.75 yards per attempt. In the game against Illinois, however, Connor Bazelek, while under pressure all day, only was sacked once and threw for 330 yards against a secondary that might have 3 NFL guys in it. Indiana is taking some shit for starting slow against Idaho(down 10-0 early) and for being lucky against Illinois, but 2 wins are 2 wins, which is even more impressive when you acknowledge they haven't played well yet. These two teams played last year in Bowling Green, KY, and I think we all can assume that Indiana was as bad last year as they've been in years, and WKU was about as good as they've been since Jeff Brohm was there, with Bailey Zappe breaking all kinds of records en route to a 9 win season and CUSA title game berth. Despite all of that, the Hoosiers won that game 33-31. This year, Inidana is obviously improved, and WKU is a shell of themselves, having lost Zappe, their top 3 receivers and OC Zack Kittley. Despite the fact they beat Hawaii 49-17 their last time out, they only outgained the Rainbows by 52 yards and struggled to beat Austin Peay the week before. Even taking last year into consideration, IU is 11-4 as a home favorite since 2017, and I think they'll keep it going here.

I showed my fiancé the entire card for today and she randomly said play Indiana at the casino today for me. Nice to see you on em as her answer as to why was I don’t know haha. She is undefeated in her picks however albeit with a small 3-0 sample size. Best of luck today man!

 

[Br@ssknux]

I showed my fiancé the entire card for today and she randomly said play Indiana at the casino today for me. Nice to see you on em as her answer as to why was I don’t know haha. She is undefeated in her picks however albeit with a small 3-0 sample size. Best of luck today man!

Shit I'll take it

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. Pitt -10.5 @Western Michigan: WMU has been a good program for awhile under Tim Lester, but they've had some major losses coming into this year, especially on offense, as they lost their QB Eleby, who was around for awhile and their top player WR Skyy Moore who is now playing for the Chiefs. Defensively, they've never been all that strong, like most MAC programs, and this year is no exception. Pitt is coming off a tough OT loss to a very solid Tennessee team that they probably would have won had their QB Slovis not gotten injured, and they dropped a shocker to the Broncos last year. They need a win pretty badly and are likely to give a solid effort here. Their QB situation is in a flux since both Slovis and backup Nick Patti were banged up and are questionable for this one, resulting in this shorter spread. Narduzzi likes to run, and the Panthers should be able to run all over the Broncos. Defensively, Pitt has some vulnerability to good passing offenses, but QB Salopek is only averaging 5 yards per attempt. He was also sacked 7 times by Michigan State, whose DL is not in the same league as Pitt's. The kicker for me is that Narduzzi has covered 9 of his last 10 over the past 3 years as a road favorite. If Slovis plays, and he might because this is a huge game off the loss for Pitt, this line will climb, and it should because he will light up this WMU defense. Even if he doesn't, Pitt's road favorite history and the edges they have in this matchup make it a solid bet in my opinion.

 

[B.A.R.]

Shit I'll take it

I've met her, she knows what's she's doing... Taught CB all his tricks

 

[B.A.R.]

Really nice looking card.

That's a heckuva write up on Washington.

Totally understand the Auburn angle, just not sure if they are better than mediocre.

Indiana and Georgia, absolutely.

Georgia State as well ... Only issue there is a letdown after playing two p5 teams?? Hopefully not.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. UTSA +12.5 @Texas: This is really an auto play in my opinion. UTSA has done nothing to keep us from backing them any time they are dogged at a significant level. Offensively they are balanced and hang tough with pretty much everybody. Texas is coming off an emotional roller coaster in a game they got screwed out of a win over Alabama. I'm not going to get into the reasons why I feel that way, everyone saw the plays, we don't need to rehash it. Ultimately, it really wasn't a loss for Texas because if they have the whole Big 12 schedule ahead of them and that game won't be held against them if they run the table. On the contrary they would probably get the nod because of it if there were some sort of tiebreaker for the playoff. Alas, I'm getting ahead of myself. Texas looked great last week, but they're not going to run this table or any other table for that matter. The Big 12 is too tight...there are really no gimmes, as Kansas has already proven to the Longhorns. Having said that, it's a hellacious sandwich spot for Texas, coming off that game and then starting Big 12 play at Texas Tech next week. They don't have Quinn Ewers, so even though Hudson Card has great weapons in Bijan Robinson and Xavier Worthy, he's a 10 yard per completion guy. If UTSA can keep those two from torching them on explosive plays, they'll be in the game to the end.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Really nice looking card.

That's a heckuva write up on Washington.

Totally understand the Auburn angle, just not sure if they are better than mediocre.

Indiana and Georgia, absolutely.

Georgia State as well ... Only issue there is a letdown after playing two p5 teams?? Hopefully not.

Thanks BAR. Hoosiers blowing it. They've had about 15 opportunities to hit big pass plays and have either dropped passes or missed throws on all of them. WKU does not cover anybody deep down the middle.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. Miami(FL) +6.5 @Texas A&M: Although Tyler Van Dyke has not looked anything close to what we expected in this new offense, I think the Aggies need to be faded until they prove they can be at least competent on offense, at least as long as they are playing competent competition, which unfortunately for them, is now until the foreseeable future. To say they looked bad on offense last week is the understatement of the century. Appy State coach Shawn Clark admitted that the Mountaineers gave up on being able to get a stop the week prior against North Carolina, and here they were walking into Kyle Field and holding the Aggies to 186 total yards. Unless Jimbo has figured out a way to simplify his encyclopedic playbook in a few days, Hayes King will probably continue to be flummoxed by it. I'm a bit worried about the Miami offense, which has looked pretty bad thus far, but even if sputter, the A&M offense is unlikely to be overly productive against a defense full of athletes like Miami's. If Van Dyke looks like himself, it's logical to think the Hurricanes have a great shot at the outright.

 

[Br@ssknux]

14. Fresno +12 @USC: Sorry about the line, I wrote this earlier this afternoon and I see it's moved a bit. My guess is that you'll be able to get 12 or better before game time, but I would play it down to 10. USC has looked great on offense, predictably. Their defense, however, has been hugely fortunate and the Trojans have been gifted 52 points over their two games as a result of turnovers. At the same time, they have committed none. That is highly unlikely to continue. Last week a previously anemic Stanford offense moved it up and down the field on them to the tune of 505 yards. Jake Haener and company are better offense than Stanford, and Haener admitted that he has all kinds of motivation after growing up a Trojan fan and being ignored in the recruiting process. He's also got some experience in cases like this, as he led Fresno to an outright win over UCLA in the Rose Bowl last year. Fresno is never intimidated by anyone ,and we all know Jeff Tedford certainly can scheme up an offense to be effective against Alex Grinch. This should be a shootout, and if Fresno can be the benefactor of a little bit of luck regression for the Trojans, they can win another one in LA. They'll be hungry for a win to get the bad taste out of their mouths from that last second loss to the Beavers last week.

 

[ronnie a]

9. Texas Tech +10.5 @NC State: Like just about everyone else, I was pretty excited about NC State's prospects coming into the year. If you were skeptical of Clemson(which I am), they were the logical alternative for ACC futures with a ton of contributors back, including QB Devin Leary. Although it's hard to argue with his numbers from last year, I think they look a lot less explosive this year, and that was on display against ECU in week one, a game they were extremely fortunate to win. They were outgained in the game and needed a blocked punt and missed kicks from the Pirates to win. Offensively, they don't look very explosive, as they appear to miss the two solid running backs they had last year as well as Emeka Emezie at WR. Texas Tech's defense has been good thus far against the run, and they were good against the run last year too, holding 8 of their 12 opponents under 100 yards rushing. If it's up to Leary to provide all the offense, I don't know if that's great news for the Wolfpack. NcState's defense is loaded, and will certainly be their strength, but the one thing you can chalk up for Texas Tech and OC Zach Kittley is that they will get yards, much like ECU did in week one with Holton Ahlers. IN my opinion 10 is too much in this game, and there's a lot of pressure on NC State to prove that this is "the year". There's a potential Game Day date set for 2 weeks from now against Clemson, "as long as nobody loses and screws it up", and NC State has to be looking ahead to that one knowing it's their ticket to potential playoff contention. If NC State takes care of business and dispatches the Red Raiders, I'll tip my cap, but good but not great programs like NC State tend to feel the pressure in games like this.

Not ta beat a dead horse, but your write ups are top notch. Hard to find many better.... When ya know ya know!

 

[Br@ssknux]

Not ta beat a dead horse, but your write ups are top notch. Hard to find many better.... When ya know ya know!

Thanks Ronnie. !