As I was saying ...
New England: Stupid me, I took a shot with NE at home and against Winston on the road. Oh well. I think I bought into all the 'Oh man, they are really back!' hype a bit. That was dumb. They're still good, but don't overrate this team just because they will play a lot of bad teams. That said, I feel they have the talent to beat those bad teams.
Buffalo: Again, let's throw out week one for them too. Based on the last two weeks, even though Allen didn't look super fantastic vs. Miami, they're absolutely going in the right direction. Also, after this week vs. Houston, they have two huge games coming up, @KC and @Tenny. That will tell us some things about this team. My guess is it tells us they're really good.
Miami: I've said it before, I said it last week, and I'll say it now. I like Jacoby Brissett. I also think last week is a perfect example of what you're going to get from him. He's Ryan Fitzpatrick but more mobile and minus the one or two 40+ performances every year. And that's pretty good. I don't know if it's pretty good enough to come in second in this division, but they do already have a win vs. NE. I don't see the playoffs for them though. They feel like a nine or ten win team. Big stretch for them right now, though. Take out @Tampa next week and they have Indy, Jax, and Atlanta all at home. Go 3-0 in those games and you can tell yourself you have a shot. But you need to start that with a win at home vs. 0-3 Indy this week, because you're going to go to Tampa next week and lose to Tom Brady.
NYJ: So, I will do this with Jax as well, but let's play a game called Find The Win. Here is the Jets upcoming schedule:
- Tenny
- Atlanta in London
- *Bye*
- @NE
- Cincy
- @Indy
- Buffalo
- Miami
- @Houston
That Houston game, btw, is in Week 12 on November 28th.
Tenny: I was really big on the Titans last weekend hoping for this exact result. As someone who bet them to win the division, I would argue they're about a couple of weeks away from doing just that. This is another team where I've thrown out Week 1. If you look at them from the start of their game in Seattle to the end of last week, they're coming together. Maybe a little early, but in this case I think that works because the way the schedule lays out, I think they can wrap up the division by Thanksgiving. Yes, they do have Buffalo and KC in a couple of weeks, but both of those games are home games. And they come after the Titans go to the Jets and to Jax which should be two more wins.
Indy: As an Eagles fan, all I want from this team this year is for Wentz to stay in the game for 75% of the snaps, short of that, they can fuck all the way off, really. Or maybe I’d like them for some overs, but here’s the thing, it kind of doesn’t matter if this team is a mess or not (they are), their record now puts them in a horrible, horrible situation. Last week was a huge win for Tenny and a really bad loss for Indy. I’m not saying Indy’s season is over three games in, but I am saying they may have lost the division in Week 3. Look at the numbers. Indy is now 0-3 with a division loss to the leaders of the division. So they’re basically three games back, and their next two games are on the road. Indy is basically the Giants of the AFC. Their play has been bad, but their schedule really makes it worse. They go to Miami this week then to Baltimore. They may be 0-5 coming home for Houston in three weeks.
Houston: I'm going to go out on a limb and say Houston is the Detroit of the AFC. By which I mean, I think they're going to fight a lot, and lose a lot. But I think they're going to try. I also think Mills isn't as bad as we want him to be. I also think they're in a great situation this week simply given the line. Buffalo just beat a playoff team. They just got their season back on track. They don't really have a bunch of motivation this week, certainly not with a trip to KC on deck. I probably won't bet Houston here, but I won't bet Buffalo either.
Jax: What time is it? That's right, it's time for: FIND. THE. WIN! Here's Jax's upcoming schedule:
- @Cincy
- Tenny
- Miami in London
- *Bye*
- @Seattle
- Buffalo
- @Indy
- SF
- Atlanta
- @LAR
- @Tenny
- Houston
Now, maybe Miami doesn't make their flight? Maybe Atlanta is feeling generous? But that Houston game is Week 15, on December 9th.
Cleveland: Another team I took a bit more of to win their division. There are couple of teams that don't seem to be quite there yet for me, but that I'm OK with that because I think they have enough talent that when it does all fall into place, they're going to go on a run. For example, the Rams would fit this bill if they were 2-1 or 1-2 as well. Honestly, if they can muddle through the next two (@Minny and @LAC) and come away 1-1, they come home for three straight winable home games, that's when they can come together. Also, I don't like what's happening to the rest of Cleveland's division. So let's jump to that.
Pittsburgh: I mentioned before that Big Ben threw damn near 60 times last week. This isn't sustainable and I'm sure Pittsburgh knows it, but I don't know what they can do about it. Their OL isn't playing well, so maybe they can try to run, but they don't really seem committed to it and again, that OL. And with Watt out, who's afraid of this defense? My sense is, Pittsburgh is about to collapse, and I'm going to play it accordingly, starting this week in Green Bay. They may get lucky and get a break in their next two with Denver and Seattle at home, but I hate this team long term this year.
Cincy: Conversely, I think ... I think it might ... I think I might like this Cincy team? WAHT?!? I don't know, maybe it's just a crush. I'm not sure. But I think, maybe, they're decent? Now, their schedule gets squirrelly, after Jax this weekend—which I'm increasingly convinced they have to win in kind of a big way—they get GB at home then go on the road for three weeks before coming home for Cleveland right before their bye. Thankfully, two of those road games are Detroit and the Jets. Honestly, as bad as some team's schedules are, Cincy's is weird but pretty good until after their bye. What I'm saying is, now may be the time to buy into the Bengals and then re-evaluate after the bye.
Balty: Part of the reason I took more of the Browns to win the division is because I worry about Baltimore's health. I am not sure this team stays healthy enough to compete for the top spot. Also, I think this week could be a let down spot for them, even after an automatic letdown spot last week in Detroit. The way they won that game, turning it into a huge emotional win, now being forced to get back on the road to Denver at altitude. Yuck. I have no idea who wins here, but I don't like the spot for them at all. Baltimore feels to me like a team that either needs to hit their stride with the talent they have on the field or they start muddling along and kind of become a middle of the road team. My guess is the former, but I'll wait another week or so before committing to that.
Kansas City: Same thing here as Cleveland. I don't love them right now, but I do as we get further into the season. Including, but not limited to this week. I really think this team is better than their record and prove it as the season rolls along—HOWEVER, this is a team that people seem to think is going to cover -10 every week and I do not see it. I see wins for this team far more than I see wins ATS. Their schedule though, sucks. I think if they lose the division, this is why.
Vegas: I want to say I have a feel for this team, but I’m not sure I do, even though I’ve been involved in two of their three games and gotten the win both times. What worries me is that I never had a ton of faith in this OL to begin with (which I think I was wrong about) and now they’ve lost a couple of guys. But since I was wrong to begin with, does that matter? Also, I believe Gruden gets the NFL in 2021. It may have taken him some time to get here, or maybe he needed the right roster, but he seems perfectly fine to throw the ball early and often. That’s what this league is now. So does that mean this team is … good? Well, we're about to find out, two of their next three are division games on the road.
LA Chargers: This division is going to be wild and based on last week, you have to think you’re going to get a lot of these teams trading wins. Which means they all need to clean up on the games outside of the division, especially those against the NFC East which is a far inferior division. What I’ve liked most about this team, I think, is that their OL play has been solid (their tied for fewest sacks allowed) and even though they seem uneven at times, they could easily be 3-0. I think they’re just as good as Vegas, if not a team with more potential, I’ve been on them in a couple of these first two, and I’ll keep looking to back them.
Denver: Denver feels a lot like one of those mid-tier NFC teams to me. Like a Carolina. Or a Seattle. Like, they’re good (and their defense is really good), but are they good enough to do more than get to 10-7 and miss the playoffs. I’m not totally sure. Now, I would be more sure if they would stop losing dudes. Judy is still out and will be for a while. They just lost another WR for the season this week, and they lost Chubb until at least Week 7. Thing is, I don’t think teams are dumb. I’m sure Denver has already heard how they haven’t played anybody and are a fake 3-0. Which I imagine helps them this week. But their schedule is going to catch up on them pretty quickly.