Week 3 What Did We Learn

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J-E-T-S oh my.
 
I see McCarthy is getting roasted for his decision not to call timeout with a little less than a minute left in the half and the Eagles with a 4th and 5 at midfield. I said in the In-Game that I was ok with the decision and looking at it with fresh eyes today I'm still ok with it.

Lets look at the options McCarthy had:

1) Call timeout with about 50 seconds left - This is certainly the more aggressive option. Get the ball back with a timeout and about 40 seconds to do something. But what were they going to do and what were the Eagles going to do? The Eagles could've easily decided to go for it. OK, if they fail you're set up in great shape. But if they convert you've kept alive their ability to reach the end zone, make it 20-14 and still have the 2nd half kickoff.

They could've also faked going for it and tried to draw Dallas offsides, which is an entirely realistic possibility if you've watched the Cowboys over the last few years. Or they punt it like they did and pin Dallas around their 10 yard line. Then what? Dallas is going to get aggressive at their own 10? Did anyone notice what happened the last time the Cowboys started a drive deep in their own territory?

What Dallas would've done with 45 seconds left from their own 10 is either start with a draw or a short safe pass that would gain 6-8 yards while burning clock. The situation all but guaranteed the BEST the Cowboys could've hoped for was getting into FG range. Which would've taken the lead from 2 scores ahead to .....uhhh......a 2 score lead. Thanks Zeurlein for missing that XP.

2) Let the clock run down with the Eagles set to punt - OK, you give up your chance to score, But you also for the most part take away the Eagle's chances for 7. That two score lead stays a two score lead into the locker room. And remember how many points the Eagles offense scored in the first half. ZERO. The Cowboys were obviously comfortable with the way their defense was playing which after last year's disastrous D is a bit of a minor miracle. And they don't even have Lawrence right now! Eventually that faith was rewarded as Diggs jumped an out right for a pick 6 and made it a 3 score game before Hurts got anything going.

And before I get called an apologist, the record shows I roast McCarthy's dumb ass as much as anyone on this board......I've got the receipts. This time though he's getting a bad rap.

And one other thing.......HOW 'BOUT DEM COWBOYS!.
It wasn't that they didn't call a timeout after 3rd down.

They didn't call one after SECOND down. They had two timeouts. With the down and yardage situation, they absolutely should have.

Now you are talking about possibly 90 seconds if you utilize the timeouts properly.
 
Expected points added per play

Quick summary is it's a statistical way of looking at a teams performance based on the points they should expect, so 10 yards on 3rd and 8 is valued more than 15 yards on 3rd and 20, even though it's less in the box score, its leading to more expected points. Theres lots of deeper info on it at most of the football stats sites

So the chart is basically showing through three weeks how teams are looking, split into quadrants based on league averages

So teams in the top right are good on offense and defense, bottom right good o/bad d, top left good d/bad o, bottom left bad both

It's only 3 weeks in so it's very skewed at this point, I.e the broncos have played 3 bad teams, including 2 rookie qbs

But just a tool to look at how teams are performing, better than just box cars
Ok makes sense now. Thank you.
 

This is a pretty cool graphic and I think, if you sort of throw away some teams because one really bad/good game can totally skew the results of a three team sample, it can be pretty helpful.

Essentially I feel like most of those teams in and around the middle are a good approximation of where we are. Bengals, Pats over-achieving, that fat stack of teams on the right is about, well, right. The Giants being a little better than their record, but also struggling, ditto Detroit.

But I'd throw out most of the outliers, and the Eagles. That Falcons game is skewing their results and they're not the same team today they were in Week 1.
 
Rams were my NFC play before the season and nothing has changed. I said during the week I never thought the Bucs were as good as we have seen and they finally ran into a balanced team who wasn’t missing a ton of starters

Upgrade

Tenn
Minn (they are going to play ugly but they shouldn’t be 1-2)
Carolina

Downgrade

WFT (more like WTF)
Seattle
Chicago
Philly

Terrible terrible bad bad don’t bet on them for now Capaholic

Jax
Jets
Giants
Houston
Pitt (how can they be trusted, seriously)


I don’t think these teams are as good as they look

Denver
Raiders


I want NE to beat TB so bad but that might get ugly. I hope not.

There are certainly things to worry about with KC. Big picture, there’s 14 games left and they will most likely be favored in every single one. You don’t win games with 4 turnovers. Their Super Bowl winning season they were 6-4. They will adjust, they will be fine, barring any more defensive injuries and Mahomes staying healthy. The WR2 concern is real. And quite frankly Jerick McKinnon belongs on the field more. But I felt better this week than I did at the end of last week.

GB-SF. These teams aren’t “great” but the NFC is just bad enough for them to have a shot to go all the way.


Typed fast. On the road, on vacation.

Bro Nfc IMO is much better than the AFC.

Nfc has Rams Bucs Cowboys Carolina Arizona Gbay.

AFC doesent even have a single team that can win the super bowl. You are going to see the Nfc dominate for a while now.

Best teams in the AFC are the Bills and who else? Titans? Soft chiefs? Denver? Raiders? Chargers?

Whoever makes it from the AFC is a team with a bullshit quarterback like Allen Bridgewater Tannehill. Nfc has all the best quarterbacks.

Brady was only reason AFC has won Super Bowls in the past 15 years. If it wasn’t for Kyle shanahan Atkanta and Niners would have won super bowls!
 
I just did this thing where I went through all of the AFC teams and wrote them up a little, and looked at their next three-ish games. And my plan was to to the NFC as well, but looking at it now, to be really really honest, this all might just be a bunch of words. I'm not sure how much of it as truly actionable and may help. So, let me see if I can add in another way.

I heard a stat the other day that rookie QBs so far this season are 1-10 SU. But I think it's worse than that. Because I think you should add Heineke and Mills in there too.
  • Wilson: 0-3 SU/ATS
  • Jones: 1-2 SU/ATS
  • Lawrence: 0-3 SU/ATS
  • Fields: 0-1 SU/ATS
  • Heineke: 0-2 SU/ATS
  • Mills: 0-1 SU (though he did play like half that Cleveland game, too)
Some of those have been bad matchups, but honestly, some of that is a lack of talent around all of these guys. Houston arguably isn't trying to win, Fields' OL is an absolute disaster, Lawrence and Jones have nothing. Point being, this may be a really bad year for rookie QBs not named Mac Jones and it may not really their fault.

Looking at the stats from the first three games, there's a bunch of stuff I throw out because one game can really skew the results (e.x., Miami losing 35-0, the Jets losing 26-0, etc.) but one thing that I think does apply and will certainly apply over the next few games is sacks allowed. Because those OLs aren't really changing but for the worse if and when injuries apply. Right now, the worst teams in the league at giving up sacks are:
  1. Chicago (giving up 5 sacks per game, ditto the Jets)
  2. NYJ
  3. Cincy
  4. Miami
  5. Tennessee
  6. Cleveland
I think where that's a little skewed is with Cincy. Cincy gave up five sacks in Week 1 to Minny. Since then, they've only given up 2.5 a game—which is still bad, but if they sustain that it keeps them sort of middle of the pack in the league. Slight warning signs here for Cleveland and Tennessee maybe. Also, if you are looking for the Giants, they're not far behind here. They're averaging a cool 2.7 sacks allowed this year, which is slightly below where they were on the season last year at 3.0 and, thing is, they have a merciless stretch upcoming: @NO, @Dallas, LAR, Carolina.

Conversely, who's protecting well?
  1. LA Rams
  2. Washington (believe it or not)
  3. KC
  4. Buffalo
  5. Jax, (which really tells you something about the rest of their performance, tbh)
  6. Minny
  7. LA Chargers
  8. San Fran
All of those teams have given up five total sacks or more, combined for the season (AZ and Philly make this cut as well, but both of these teams now have injuries on the OL so I'm throwing them out).

The following teams are all averaging over 40 pass attempts per game (with Atlanta and Jax, missing the cut by one and two passes respectively)
  1. TB (the Bucs are averaging over 45 passes per game)
  2. LVR
  3. Pitt
  4. Buffalo
  5. LAC
  6. NE
  7. Detroit
  8. Minny
  9. Miami
Now, some of that makes a lot of sense. Detroit was down by like a million in the first half of their first game. Minny played an OT game and played two teams who are going to let them pass a lot (Arizona and Seattle), but some of rest of it is really telling. Including but not limited to how Big Ben through, I believe, 58 times last week alone. That is not sustainable.

In terms of specific teams from me:

NYG: Their season is over. That may sound like me being bitter that I bet on them last week, and that may be true, but also their schedule sucks. As mentioned above, they now go to NO, then they go to Dallas before getting LAR and Carolina. This team is fucked. Also, I think that loss to Atlanta, in which they easily could have won that game at home, is hugely deflating because now they leave town for two weeks. I worry a bit about New Orleans having a letdown this week after being on the road forever and having a big win in NE, but not enough not to tease them down to -1.5. Really, if they're motivated, the Saints should have a big day vs. this Giants team. As it is, I kind of feel a shootout coming. 34-27, 37-24, something like that.

Philly: Their season isn't over, but what's happening to the Birds right now is the worst of all worlds for Jalen Hurts. He's losing guys on his OL. His WRs aren't seasoned enough, nor is he, to make up for this. It's a huge problem. Even worse, Brandon Graham is now gone on the DL. They had a suspect secondary coming into this season, now that they're going to struggle to get pressure, look out. In particular, look out this week.

Washington: Interesting that their defense looks not ready for the season. Very interesting. Because Taylor Heineke isn't going to give you 30 points a game. Not unless he's down 55-10 at halftime.

Dallas: Fucking Dallas is good. I hate everything. Specifically, their defense seems to be improving from week to week. Good for Cowboys fans and bettors, but I hate it.

Atlanta: I'm not buying this 'Atlanta is better than their record' nonsense. I'm willing to throw out their first game stat-wise. That's fine. But they still should have lost to the Giants. This team should be 0-3. Huge spot for Washington at Atlanta this week, too. The Armada/Flying Hogs/Commodores need a bounce back in the worst way. And especially after their DL did next to nothing against Buffalo? Interesting.

Carolina: Their DL is a problem to deal with, and it's going to have to be. I don't like this team without McCaffrey. It puts too much pressure on Darnold. Now, maybe I'm wrong, and maybe he can handle it, but I really feel like their defense is going to need to carry them for a few weeks. Which means no betting them as favorites for me unless it's a play against the other team.

On Tampa, I agree with Gandolf. They're old. They'll be fine, and what likely happens is they realize in a few games, 'Holy shit, we're old.' And they start to find ways to load manage if possible. But now that they've won it all, I wouldn't be surprised if they take the Lakers approach of, 'Fuck the regular season, just get us to the playoffs healthy.' Which is bad ATS given what their spreads will be. But I think it might be OK for their totals and for them long-term.

Green Bay: Let's just throw out their first game and evaluate them otherwise. And otherwise says, they're who they were supposed to be to start the season. That their OL/DL pushed around SF all game last week was massive. Because that OL in particular still isn't healthy.

Chicago is fucked. Their OL is a disaster and their coaching staff had no plan for how to implement a running QB. How do you draft Fields and have no plan to start integrating him into the offense? They're a bet against until further notice.

Detroit: I also agree with Gandolf on Detroit. They should have beaten Balty in an obvious letdown spot. They seem like fighters. Losers, but fighters. Which may be good for the number and good for their totals.

I'm meh on both Minny and Seattle. All I care about is if they can get to a total.

San Fran: It looks very much like exactly what killed this team last year will do it again this year, injuries. Which sucks. They're still good, but if you can't stay healthy, you can't win this division.

LA Rams: Speaking of which, I bet the Rams to win this division this week. Now I have both them and SF to win this division so one of these bets will lose, but they're both at plus-money so it will work out. I just don't see a path for Seattle or AZ.

Arizona: The only thing that matters to me with them is that they had injuries along their OL this week. I don't know what that means for Sunday, but I think they need at least one replacement. That's bad long-term.

FML, this is getting too long, let me do the AFC in another reply ...
 
As I was saying ...

New England: Stupid me, I took a shot with NE at home and against Winston on the road. Oh well. I think I bought into all the 'Oh man, they are really back!' hype a bit. That was dumb. They're still good, but don't overrate this team just because they will play a lot of bad teams. That said, I feel they have the talent to beat those bad teams.

Buffalo: Again, let's throw out week one for them too. Based on the last two weeks, even though Allen didn't look super fantastic vs. Miami, they're absolutely going in the right direction. Also, after this week vs. Houston, they have two huge games coming up, @KC and @Tenny. That will tell us some things about this team. My guess is it tells us they're really good.

Miami: I've said it before, I said it last week, and I'll say it now. I like Jacoby Brissett. I also think last week is a perfect example of what you're going to get from him. He's Ryan Fitzpatrick but more mobile and minus the one or two 40+ performances every year. And that's pretty good. I don't know if it's pretty good enough to come in second in this division, but they do already have a win vs. NE. I don't see the playoffs for them though. They feel like a nine or ten win team. Big stretch for them right now, though. Take out @Tampa next week and they have Indy, Jax, and Atlanta all at home. Go 3-0 in those games and you can tell yourself you have a shot. But you need to start that with a win at home vs. 0-3 Indy this week, because you're going to go to Tampa next week and lose to Tom Brady.

NYJ: So, I will do this with Jax as well, but let's play a game called Find The Win. Here is the Jets upcoming schedule:
  • Tenny
  • Atlanta in London
  • *Bye*
  • @NE
  • Cincy
  • @Indy
  • Buffalo
  • Miami
  • @Houston
That Houston game, btw, is in Week 12 on November 28th.

Tenny
: I was really big on the Titans last weekend hoping for this exact result. As someone who bet them to win the division, I would argue they're about a couple of weeks away from doing just that. This is another team where I've thrown out Week 1. If you look at them from the start of their game in Seattle to the end of last week, they're coming together. Maybe a little early, but in this case I think that works because the way the schedule lays out, I think they can wrap up the division by Thanksgiving. Yes, they do have Buffalo and KC in a couple of weeks, but both of those games are home games. And they come after the Titans go to the Jets and to Jax which should be two more wins.

Indy: As an Eagles fan, all I want from this team this year is for Wentz to stay in the game for 75% of the snaps, short of that, they can fuck all the way off, really. Or maybe I’d like them for some overs, but here’s the thing, it kind of doesn’t matter if this team is a mess or not (they are), their record now puts them in a horrible, horrible situation. Last week was a huge win for Tenny and a really bad loss for Indy. I’m not saying Indy’s season is over three games in, but I am saying they may have lost the division in Week 3. Look at the numbers. Indy is now 0-3 with a division loss to the leaders of the division. So they’re basically three games back, and their next two games are on the road. Indy is basically the Giants of the AFC. Their play has been bad, but their schedule really makes it worse. They go to Miami this week then to Baltimore. They may be 0-5 coming home for Houston in three weeks.

Houston: I'm going to go out on a limb and say Houston is the Detroit of the AFC. By which I mean, I think they're going to fight a lot, and lose a lot. But I think they're going to try. I also think Mills isn't as bad as we want him to be. I also think they're in a great situation this week simply given the line. Buffalo just beat a playoff team. They just got their season back on track. They don't really have a bunch of motivation this week, certainly not with a trip to KC on deck. I probably won't bet Houston here, but I won't bet Buffalo either.

Jax: What time is it? That's right, it's time for: FIND. THE. WIN! Here's Jax's upcoming schedule:
  • @Cincy
  • Tenny
  • Miami in London
  • *Bye*
  • @Seattle
  • Buffalo
  • @Indy
  • SF
  • Atlanta
  • @LAR
  • @Tenny
  • Houston
Now, maybe Miami doesn't make their flight? Maybe Atlanta is feeling generous? But that Houston game is Week 15, on December 9th.

Cleveland: Another team I took a bit more of to win their division. There are couple of teams that don't seem to be quite there yet for me, but that I'm OK with that because I think they have enough talent that when it does all fall into place, they're going to go on a run. For example, the Rams would fit this bill if they were 2-1 or 1-2 as well. Honestly, if they can muddle through the next two (@Minny and @LAC) and come away 1-1, they come home for three straight winable home games, that's when they can come together. Also, I don't like what's happening to the rest of Cleveland's division. So let's jump to that.

Pittsburgh: I mentioned before that Big Ben threw damn near 60 times last week. This isn't sustainable and I'm sure Pittsburgh knows it, but I don't know what they can do about it. Their OL isn't playing well, so maybe they can try to run, but they don't really seem committed to it and again, that OL. And with Watt out, who's afraid of this defense? My sense is, Pittsburgh is about to collapse, and I'm going to play it accordingly, starting this week in Green Bay. They may get lucky and get a break in their next two with Denver and Seattle at home, but I hate this team long term this year.

Cincy: Conversely, I think ... I think it might ... I think I might like this Cincy team? WAHT?!? I don't know, maybe it's just a crush. I'm not sure. But I think, maybe, they're decent? Now, their schedule gets squirrelly, after Jax this weekend—which I'm increasingly convinced they have to win in kind of a big way—they get GB at home then go on the road for three weeks before coming home for Cleveland right before their bye. Thankfully, two of those road games are Detroit and the Jets. Honestly, as bad as some team's schedules are, Cincy's is weird but pretty good until after their bye. What I'm saying is, now may be the time to buy into the Bengals and then re-evaluate after the bye.

Balty: Part of the reason I took more of the Browns to win the division is because I worry about Baltimore's health. I am not sure this team stays healthy enough to compete for the top spot. Also, I think this week could be a let down spot for them, even after an automatic letdown spot last week in Detroit. The way they won that game, turning it into a huge emotional win, now being forced to get back on the road to Denver at altitude. Yuck. I have no idea who wins here, but I don't like the spot for them at all. Baltimore feels to me like a team that either needs to hit their stride with the talent they have on the field or they start muddling along and kind of become a middle of the road team. My guess is the former, but I'll wait another week or so before committing to that.

Kansas City: Same thing here as Cleveland. I don't love them right now, but I do as we get further into the season. Including, but not limited to this week. I really think this team is better than their record and prove it as the season rolls along—HOWEVER, this is a team that people seem to think is going to cover -10 every week and I do not see it. I see wins for this team far more than I see wins ATS. Their schedule though, sucks. I think if they lose the division, this is why.

Vegas: I want to say I have a feel for this team, but I’m not sure I do, even though I’ve been involved in two of their three games and gotten the win both times. What worries me is that I never had a ton of faith in this OL to begin with (which I think I was wrong about) and now they’ve lost a couple of guys. But since I was wrong to begin with, does that matter? Also, I believe Gruden gets the NFL in 2021. It may have taken him some time to get here, or maybe he needed the right roster, but he seems perfectly fine to throw the ball early and often. That’s what this league is now. So does that mean this team is … good? Well, we're about to find out, two of their next three are division games on the road.

LA Chargers: This division is going to be wild and based on last week, you have to think you’re going to get a lot of these teams trading wins. Which means they all need to clean up on the games outside of the division, especially those against the NFC East which is a far inferior division. What I’ve liked most about this team, I think, is that their OL play has been solid (their tied for fewest sacks allowed) and even though they seem uneven at times, they could easily be 3-0. I think they’re just as good as Vegas, if not a team with more potential, I’ve been on them in a couple of these first two, and I’ll keep looking to back them.

Denver: Denver feels a lot like one of those mid-tier NFC teams to me. Like a Carolina. Or a Seattle. Like, they’re good (and their defense is really good), but are they good enough to do more than get to 10-7 and miss the playoffs. I’m not totally sure. Now, I would be more sure if they would stop losing dudes. Judy is still out and will be for a while. They just lost another WR for the season this week, and they lost Chubb until at least Week 7. Thing is, I don’t think teams are dumb. I’m sure Denver has already heard how they haven’t played anybody and are a fake 3-0. Which I imagine helps them this week. But their schedule is going to catch up on them pretty quickly.
 
Come on Cap, You have two teams on your fraud list who are undefeated. Denver has had a really soft schedule and I understand what you are saying but they beat who they have played and looked solid doing it. I get it also, its really hard for a Chiefs fan to give the Raiders credit. How can you say fraud when a team is 3-0 vs three teams who had more than ten wins last year? Maybe the Raiders don't end up as a 12 or 13 win team this year but they are certainly not frauds.
Agree. We've beaten good teams, not shit teams like the Jets, Jags, Bears etc.

Not saying we're world beaters, but we are going to be competitive. The defense has also made strides with the offseason pickups we made.
 
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