Week 3 What Did We Learn

VirginiaCavs said:
I shouldn‘t have shyed away from fading Jacksonville because of „body clock“ (Cards playing a 1 pm et game). I‘m not sure now when I should shy away from fading this team.
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Wait till they play the Jets. That is when it will be safe to bet the Jags.
 
Rams were my NFC play before the season and nothing has changed. I said during the week I never thought the Bucs were as good as we have seen and they finally ran into a balanced team who wasn’t missing a ton of starters

Upgrade

Tenn
Minn (they are going to play ugly but they shouldn’t be 1-2)
Carolina

Downgrade

WFT (more like WTF)
Seattle
Chicago
Philly

Terrible terrible bad bad don’t bet on them for now Capaholic

Jax
Jets
Giants
Houston
Pitt (how can they be trusted, seriously)


I don’t think these teams are as good as they look

Denver
Raiders


I want NE to beat TB so bad but that might get ugly. I hope not.

There are certainly things to worry about with KC. Big picture, there’s 14 games left and they will most likely be favored in every single one. You don’t win games with 4 turnovers. Their Super Bowl winning season they were 6-4. They will adjust, they will be fine, barring any more defensive injuries and Mahomes staying healthy. The WR2 concern is real. And quite frankly Jerick McKinnon belongs on the field more. But I felt better this week than I did at the end of last week.

GB-SF. These teams aren’t “great” but the NFC is just bad enough for them to have a shot to go all the way.


Typed fast. On the road, on vacation.
 
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Come on Cap, You have two teams on your fraud list who are undefeated. Denver has had a really soft schedule and I understand what you are saying but they beat who they have played and looked solid doing it. I get it also, its really hard for a Chiefs fan to give the Raiders credit. How can you say fraud when a team is 3-0 vs three teams who had more than ten wins last year? Maybe the Raiders don't end up as a 12 or 13 win team this year but they are certainly not frauds.
 
I know the Bengals took some criticism for drafting him but Ja’Marr Chase is a stud. Dude just has another gear. This offense should improve throughout the season and Cincy might finish 2nd in the division.
 
Another week where the spread only mattered in 2 games (Mia and Det) and Mia was a push for some.
 
Some quick hitter thoughts:
WFT - Backup QB is going to limit their offensive upside, we already knew that. What's new is how mediocre the defense looks. Bills were 9/15 on 3rd down efficiency. No sacks. 77 offensive plays. We knew the secondary was a bit suspect but if the front four has a tough year this is a five win team. Look at this run of games after Atlanta next week: NO, KC, at GB, at Den, Tampa, at Carolina, Seattle, Dallas. That's a hell of an eight pack.

NYG - Barkley isn't quite 100% yet but getting closer. Danny Dimes throws a good ball at times and at other times makes poor decisions. Think they'll always be held back by Clapper.

GB - They seem back to normal. Can carve you up either through the air or on the ground. Schedule gets soft for a month (Pit, at Cin, at Chi, WFT) so enjoy it. Defense can still get a gash once in awhile, but the offense can overcome it.

Det- This team is scrappy and still playing hard. They should be quite competitive the next few weeks (at Chi, at Min, Cin) as long as Goff and Swift are playing they should find some smart backing as dogs.

Min - They also have strong balance and a nice looking schedule coming up (Cle, Det, at Car, Dal). Worth backing.

Chi - Just a mess at this point. Stay away until Fields shows signs of the light bulb kicking on.

Carolina - The Saints win looks a lot better today. Other two games were layups. Want to say things will get tougher but when? (at Dal, Phi, Min, at NYG, at Atl, at NE, WFT, at Miami, Atl) They might have a playoff spot clinched by Thanksgiving. Teddy just wins games.

NO - Defense has played well but still can't trust Jameis and that hodgepodge collection of receivers. Next two weeks should be handy vs NYG and at WFT, then things start getting tougher after the bye.

Tampa - Veteran team playing a 17 game schedule following a long playoff run last year. I think they will slow down 2nd half of the year, make the tourney at 11-6 and bow out at some point in the NFC playoffs. Secondary has been torched three weeks straight.
Brady 44 Gio 29 Evans 28
Brate 30 Gronk 32 Suh 34
Gholston 30 Barrett 28 JPP 32

Atl - Still not good but getting better. Some winnable games in front of them before they play Car, at NO and at Dal.

NFC West - Next two weeks will be delicious: Sea at SF, Ari at LAR, LAR at Sea, SF at Ari. Might as well wait and watch to see how things shake out.

Buf - How the hell did these guys lose week 1?? Talk about false flags. Definite letdown spot next week ahead of the rematch with KC. But the disparity is so great with Houston it may not even matter.

Miami - Scrappy team bounced back well after the drubbing to Buffalo, They will be in a lot of games because they play a lot of mediocre teams this year. But they're basically a 8-9 team.

NE - Well so far Mac Jones is no Brady. Damn this team has a weak skill position group, except for TE. James White was their biggest hope for a chain mover. If he's done this team is locked into 7-10. Defense is good enough to make under viable many weeks.

Jets - How the hell did these guys hang within five of Carolina week 1? They have a couple of winnable games later in the year, but until then bleh.

Pitt - Lost back to back weeks at home for first time since 2003. Lost by >10 to Cincy at home first time since 1995. There is the smell of desperation in the air and a road game at Lambeau on the schedule. The offense looks no different than last year's predictable dink & dunk offense. 2-7 in their last nine is not a mirage.

Bal - To quote KGB, this team has alligator blood. Game result would've been more comfortable had Hollywood Brown not had three balls bounce off his mitts. Their schedule is pretty competitive the next six but they are home for a full month soon so we'll see if they can get some guys back and keep going check check check.

Clev - A great running attack, a great pass rush, a solid QB, and a competent secondary should lead to wins. If things break right these guys will be right in the mix. A fun set of games coming up to tell us more (at Min, at LAC, Ariz, Den, Pitt, at Cinc).

Cinc - Huge Mouse off their back with this week's big win, now get a breather game before hosting Rodgers & Co. Let down spot coming Thursday? Maybe.

Tenn - Re-found their identity against Seattle: pound the big man, play action to big receivers. Schedule gets soft for two weeks before they get measuring stick games hosting Buf and KC. Probably not a good enough defense to beat the big boys.

Indy - Carson Wentz......remember when people said he was better than Dak Prescott? hahahahahaha good times man.

Hou/Jax - lets see how high the lines get with these two. Anything under 12 is probably a must lay.

AFC West - Denver's schedule has been too soft, they get a test this week. Raiders seem like their D is still an issue. Chiefs have that Super Bowl loser hangover. Chargers will be a threat every week.
 
Trey Sermon is a complete bust. They don't trust him to run the ball and opted for more carries for a FB. 9ers secondary went from bad to worse with Norman's injury. They need to bring in Sherman ASAP - not sure what the hold up is? Armstead is having a career year and Bosa is Bosa and only improving every week but they can't have a bottom feeding CB unit and compete. Shanahan also needs a metrics guy. Punting on 4th and 1 midfield was a complete joke. Then he gets all ballsy and has that nice 4th down play with Lance. He's inconsistent with his conservativeness and aggression. If Elijah Mitchell can't go Sunday vs. Hawks I don't know how the 9ers score consistently with 0 threat of a running game in a run based offense.

Chiefs play the game like there's keep it close sliders on. Karma will continue to catch up to them for playing half assed and refusing to cover games. Finally, they're actually losing SU.

Jets need to fire LaFluer ASAP. This is a 0-17 offense with an average or so defense.
 
Coverdatspred said:
Come on Cap, You have two teams on your fraud list who are undefeated. Denver has had a really soft schedule and I understand what you are saying but they beat who they have played and looked solid doing it. I get it also, its really hard for a Chiefs fan to give the Raiders credit. How can you say fraud when a team is 3-0 vs three teams who had more than ten wins last year? Maybe the Raiders don't end up as a 12 or 13 win team this year but they are certainly not frauds.
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Fair question on the Raiders. It’s probably skewed by my opinion of a Jacoby Brisset team that lost 35-0 to the Bills. And a win over the Steelers which now looks a bit weaker. The Ravens outplayed the Raiders for 3 quarters.

Nobody will convince me that Denver is a playoff team with that offense.

I will change the term fraud. You are correct that it’s a bit strong
 
ONe team has scored 92 and given up 95, they are 1-2
two team has scored 103, one is 2-1. one is 3-0
One team has only scored 20pts.
one team has only given up 26
 
Bills are “back”, don’t think anyone counted them out but the offense sure was out of sync the first two weeks. Top 5 offense and defense

WFT had extra time to prepare for Buffalo and got absolutely rocked. Jack Del Rio is a bum

Chargers are as good as we thought they could be with Lynn gone.
 
survive&advance said:
Bills are “back”, don’t think anyone counted them out but the offense sure was out of sync the first two weeks. Top 5 offense and defense

WFT had extra time to prepare for Buffalo and got absolutely rocked. Jack Del Rio is a bum

Chargers are as good as we thought they could be with Lynn gone.
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Yea I think Chargers aren’t very far away. Herbert looks great
 
It’s amazing to me how many of these coaches refuse to call plays to their players strengths. They are so set in stone on their way they can’t adapt to what they have around them of take advantage of their players skill sets
 
I see McCarthy is getting roasted for his decision not to call timeout with a little less than a minute left in the half and the Eagles with a 4th and 5 at midfield. I said in the In-Game that I was ok with the decision and looking at it with fresh eyes today I'm still ok with it.

Lets look at the options McCarthy had:

1) Call timeout with about 50 seconds left - This is certainly the more aggressive option. Get the ball back with a timeout and about 40 seconds to do something. But what were they going to do and what were the Eagles going to do? The Eagles could've easily decided to go for it. OK, if they fail you're set up in great shape. But if they convert you've kept alive their ability to reach the end zone, make it 20-14 and still have the 2nd half kickoff.

They could've also faked going for it and tried to draw Dallas offsides, which is an entirely realistic possibility if you've watched the Cowboys over the last few years. Or they punt it like they did and pin Dallas around their 10 yard line. Then what? Dallas is going to get aggressive at their own 10? Did anyone notice what happened the last time the Cowboys started a drive deep in their own territory?

What Dallas would've done with 45 seconds left from their own 10 is either start with a draw or a short safe pass that would gain 6-8 yards while burning clock. The situation all but guaranteed the BEST the Cowboys could've hoped for was getting into FG range. Which would've taken the lead from 2 scores ahead to .....uhhh......a 2 score lead. Thanks Zeurlein for missing that XP.

2) Let the clock run down with the Eagles set to punt - OK, you give up your chance to score, But you also for the most part take away the Eagle's chances for 7. That two score lead stays a two score lead into the locker room. And remember how many points the Eagles offense scored in the first half. ZERO. The Cowboys were obviously comfortable with the way their defense was playing which after last year's disastrous D is a bit of a minor miracle. And they don't even have Lawrence right now! Eventually that faith was rewarded as Diggs jumped an out right for a pick 6 and made it a 3 score game before Hurts got anything going.

And before I get called an apologist, the record shows I roast McCarthy's dumb ass as much as anyone on this board......I've got the receipts. This time though he's getting a bad rap.

And one other thing.......HOW 'BOUT DEM COWBOYS!.
 
As long as Dak stays healthy that division is over. Its hardly a coincidence that the one and only team with even a starting caliber QB is going to run away with the division. Its also long overdue for Dak to start finally getting recognized as a very good player when he has faced nothing but criticism his whole career.
 
Gandolf said:
I see McCarthy is getting roasted for his decision not to call timeout with a little less than a minute left in the half and the Eagles with a 4th and 5 at midfield. I said in the In-Game that I was ok with the decision and looking at it with fresh eyes today I'm still ok with it.

Lets look at the options McCarthy had:

1) Call timeout with about 50 seconds left - This is certainly the more aggressive option. Get the ball back with a timeout and about 40 seconds to do something. But what were they going to do and what were the Eagles going to do? The Eagles could've easily decided to go for it. OK, if they fail you're set up in great shape. But if they convert you've kept alive their ability to reach the end zone, make it 20-14 and still have the 2nd half kickoff.

They could've also faked going for it and tried to draw Dallas offsides, which is an entirely realistic possibility if you've watched the Cowboys over the last few years. Or they punt it like they did and pin Dallas around their 10 yard line. Then what? Dallas is going to get aggressive at their own 10? Did anyone notice what happened the last time the Cowboys started a drive deep in their own territory?

What Dallas would've done with 45 seconds left from their own 10 is either start with a draw or a short safe pass that would gain 6-8 yards while burning clock. The situation all but guaranteed the BEST the Cowboys could've hoped for was getting into FG range. Which would've taken the lead from 2 scores ahead to .....uhhh......a 2 score lead. Thanks Zeurlein for missing that XP.

2) Let the clock run down with the Eagles set to punt - OK, you give up your chance to score, But you also for the most part take away the Eagle's chances for 7. That two score lead stays a two score lead into the locker room. And remember how many points the Eagles offense scored in the first half. ZERO. The Cowboys were obviously comfortable with the way their defense was playing which after last year's disastrous D is a bit of a minor miracle. And they don't even have Lawrence right now! Eventually that faith was rewarded as Diggs jumped an out right for a pick 6 and made it a 3 score game before Hurts got anything going.

And before I get called an apologist, the record shows I roast McCarthy's dumb ass as much as anyone on this board......I've got the receipts. This time though he's getting a bad rap.

And one other thing.......HOW 'BOUT DEM COWBOYS!.
Click to expand...
He’s getting that bad rep by precedent you know that
 
FAQAiJqXEAYihGD
 
brewers888 said:
As long as Dak stays healthy that division is over. Its hardly a coincidence that the one and only team with even a starting caliber QB is going to run away with the division. Its also long overdue for Dak to start finally getting recognized as a very good player when he has faced nothing but criticism his whole career.
Click to expand...
the game is all about the qb --- Randy Galloway
 
Capaholic said:
Rams were my NFC play before the season and nothing has changed. I said during the week I never thought the Bucs were as good as we have seen and they finally ran into a balanced team who wasn’t missing a ton of starters

Upgrade

Tenn
Minn (they are going to play ugly but they shouldn’t be 1-2)
Carolina

Downgrade

WFT (more like WTF)
Seattle
Chicago
Philly

Terrible terrible bad bad don’t bet on them for now Capaholic

Jax
Jets
Giants
Houston
Pitt (how can they be trusted, seriously)


I don’t think these teams are as good as they look

Denver
Raiders


I want NE to beat TB so bad but that might get ugly. I hope not.

There are certainly things to worry about with KC. Big picture, there’s 14 games left and they will most likely be favored in every single one. You don’t win games with 4 turnovers. Their Super Bowl winning season they were 6-4. They will adjust, they will be fine, barring any more defensive injuries and Mahomes staying healthy. The WR2 concern is real. And quite frankly Jerick McKinnon belongs on the field more. But I felt better this week than I did at the end of last week.

GB-SF. These teams aren’t “great” but the NFC is just bad enough for them to have a shot to go all the way.


Typed fast. On the road, on vacation.
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WFT=WTF. LOL. Those are my thoughts too. WTF is up with this team geez.
 
skanless13 said:
I know I should be able to interpret this chart but I’m struggling… maybe because it’s so late. What am I looking at.
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Expected points added per play

Quick summary is it's a statistical way of looking at a teams performance based on the points they should expect, so 10 yards on 3rd and 8 is valued more than 15 yards on 3rd and 20, even though it's less in the box score, its leading to more expected points. Theres lots of deeper info on it at most of the football stats sites

So the chart is basically showing through three weeks how teams are looking, split into quadrants based on league averages

So teams in the top right are good on offense and defense, bottom right good o/bad d, top left good d/bad o, bottom left bad both

It's only 3 weeks in so it's very skewed at this point, I.e the broncos have played 3 bad teams, including 2 rookie qbs

But just a tool to look at how teams are performing, better than just box cars
 
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