Week 3 What Are We Learning

Belichick was famous for the line "Do your job". BUT, there's also a corollary to that phrase. It's "DON"T MAKE PLAYERS DO SOMEBODY ELSE'S JOB". The Cowboys lined CD Lamb up as a tailback and ran a normal run play. Wouldn't you know it, a guy used to taking on CBs and safeties gets dragged down by a LB who rolls his ankle. How abso-fucking-lutely stupid does your coaching staff have to be to pull that stunt?

You don't use a Ferrari to pull an RV.
 
Gandolf said:
Belichick was famous for the line "Do your job". BUT, there's also a corollary to that phrase. It's "DON"T MAKE PLAYERS DO SOMEBODY ELSE'S JOB". The Cowboys lined CD Lamb up as a tailback and ran a normal run play. Wouldn't you know it, a guy used to taking on CBs and safeties gets dragged down by a LB who rolls his ankle. How abso-fucking-lutely stupid does your coaching staff have to be to pull that stunt?

You don't use a Ferrari to pull an RV.
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Had over 50. 38 at half. Total Dallas ineptitude in 2h.
 
lvmike32 said:
Had over 50. 38 at half. Total Dallas ineptitude in 2h.
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I'm still stinging from this one.

Rolled over the Puka prop winnings on this over right before kickoff and was laughing at half.

Now, I've won and lost on these 2h's like this before -- but this game felt too "open".

Yes, the end zone turnovers were brutal but equally brutal was that Bears 9+ min drive in the 3rd. That shortened the game significantly.
 
B.A.R. said:
I'm still stinging from this one.

Rolled over the Puka prop winnings on this over right before kickoff and was laughing at half.

Now, I've won and lost on these 2h's like this before -- but this game felt too "open".

Yes, the end zone turnovers were brutal but equally brutal was that Bears 9+ min drive in the 3rd. That shortened the game significantly.
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Yeah I told my friend it was 10 minute drive lol. Was killer. No defensive or ST scores either. At least Chicago scored a td on that drive. Thought they would get stopped on 4th and goal. Dallas moved the ball all game but either kicked fg or had TO. Just a tough beat in a day full of them. Fluke really. GB next and they are off a loss. Bad one. Always weary of road favorites but they might open a can especially if Lamb out.
 
I know it’s not a bad beat thread but fucking Philly blocking a FG attempt that even if it goes IN I’m good on total…..but fuck NO. Let’s house call it with zeroes on the clock.
I got Dak over 250 yards tied to CD Anytime TD, and they run that shit play.

I say all that to say, what a wild fucking day in the NFL. It’s truly back. Fucking ya right your asshole.
 
Dallas is in serious trouble with Brian Shitthowdoyouspellmynamer. The guy just isn't a long term winner. He's supposed to be some offensive guru but he's had some seriously shitty schemes in the past, and seems like he never stays anywhere too long (probably due to the bleh level of success). I'm very much not a believer in him. Add in the fact he's in Dallas, of all places, it's not going to work.

Some teams are absolutely going to be practicing special teams this week. The blocked kicks this week were crazy.

Green Bay gave that game away. Cleveland's defense is tough, but the Packers had done jussst enough to win it....and then they sat down and fingered themselves the last 3 minutes of the game.

Chief's Spags deserves a ton of credit (as usual) for the work he's done so far...last week slowed down Philly's offense and tonight totally took away the Giants passing game. Nabers couldnt do anything and Wilson got frustrated and started forcing things.

Daniel Jones is winning....who would've thought?

I really thought my Raiders would compete more but they couldn't avoid giving up big plays. Last week the offense was bad and the defense was okay...this week the offense was okay and the defense was bad. Ugh, c'mon Petey.
 
Also learned the Dbacks are randomly in the wild card chase which is one of the most crazy things that makes no sense in my sporting life. We sold half the team at the deadline.
 
Steelers fans have to feel about as bad as one can about a 2-1 team as they could easily be winless.
 
If Woody was so insistent on hiring yet another defensive assistant as head coach since its worked out so well every other time Brian Flores was the only acceptable choice as he is a great coordinator and not the worst defensive coach in the history of organized football.
 
C-MAN said:
I’m learning to sit back and watch week 3. Gave back most of the profits from weeks 1 and 2. What a mess…
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There’s too many things that can happen in the NFL that can make a person go on tilt. Can’t be emphasized enough to bet much smaller and enjoy it.
Puka gets a 1st down in Eagles territory and does his normal arm flex and 1st down signal, what does a ref decide to do? 15 yard penalty for taunting. There wasn’t 1 eagles player near him that saw it nor was Puka directing it to anyone.
Officials are putting the game in their hands, although I do think these athletes are too good for them to be on the field making calls.
 
4 blocked FGs. The odds were insane, I’m sure it’s in Twitter but the likelihood of having twins, or earth getting hit by a geo-beam, etc…
Alotta the odds were closer than you would think.
 
I'm a Raiders fan for life, but I have to admit I was surprised how so many fans instantly assumed just drafting Ashton Jeanty was going to instantly fix the running game. And now a lot of fans saying Jeanty is a bust, referring to him as Trent Richardson 2.0. Cmon lol. The Raiders o-line is really inconsistent. They can't open up good running lanes, and they also aren't able to consistently give Geno time (sacked 12 times in 3 games)....this also goes hand in hand with the fact the Raiders don't have a stud WR to really break open the passing game. I'm sorry but Meyers is good yes really good, but he's not a monster superstar. Tre Tucker has speed but he's small/undersized. That leaves just Bowers...
 
DeadEyeDuckie said:
I'm a Raiders fan for life, but I have to admit I was surprised how so many fans instantly assumed just drafting Ashton Jeanty was going to instantly fix the running game. And now a lot of fans saying Jeanty is a bust, referring to him as Trent Richardson 2.0. Cmon lol. The Raiders o-line is really inconsistent. They can't open up good running lanes, and they also aren't able to consistently give Geno time (sacked 12 times in 3 games)....this also goes hand in hand with the fact the Raiders don't have a stud WR to really break open the passing game. I'm sorry but Meyers is good yes really good, but he's not a monster superstar. Tre Tucker has speed but he's small/undersized. That leaves just Bowers...
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Let the dust settle fans...

Jeantay will be fine, albeit I think he's moreso a 4-6 year guy than a D Henry type.

He's definitely not Trent Richardson.
 
Foxtrot said:
Lamb out 3 to 4 weeks
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That's worse than losing Dak. Lamb makes that whole offense go. Dak still needs to see guys open to throw it, and Lamb was their main guy who could always get open. Pickens is a combat catch guy who Dak still has to learn to trust. Ferguson can get open but only with 5 yards of the LOS. Without Lamb defenses will add a guy to the box to slow the running game (plus #1 pick Booker is also going to be out 3-4 weeks). With no defense to speak of this could spiral into a Dave Campo type season.
 
DeadEyeDuckie said:
I'm a Raiders fan for life, but I have to admit I was surprised how so many fans instantly assumed just drafting Ashton Jeanty was going to instantly fix the running game. And now a lot of fans saying Jeanty is a bust, referring to him as Trent Richardson 2.0. Cmon lol. The Raiders o-line is really inconsistent. They can't open up good running lanes, and they also aren't able to consistently give Geno time (sacked 12 times in 3 games)....this also goes hand in hand with the fact the Raiders don't have a stud WR to really break open the passing game. I'm sorry but Meyers is good yes really good, but he's not a monster superstar. Tre Tucker has speed but he's small/undersized. That leaves just Bowers...
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It‘s insane to me how quick people are to condemn Jeanty and Travis Hunter. Look how long it took Baker Mayfield… give rookies time to adjust
 
Frank Costanza said:
I'm the last person to learn this probably but Philly is 19-1 in its last 20 games.

That's incredible, especially in this sport.
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Very incredible.

Big credit to just winning games.

TWICE in that span the Rams have outplayed them and Philly is 2-0 on those games.

As Al Davis used to say ...
 
Gandolf said:
That's worse than losing Dak. Lamb makes that whole offense go. Dak still needs to see guys open to throw it, and Lamb was their main guy who could always get open. Pickens is a combat catch guy who Dak still has to learn to trust. Ferguson can get open but only with 5 yards of the LOS. Without Lamb defenses will add a guy to the box to slow the running game (plus #1 pick Booker is also going to be out 3-4 weeks). With no defense to speak of this could spiral into a Dave Campo type season.
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This week vs GB they'll be without Parsons, Lamb and Bland 3 All Pros they thought they'd have 6 weeks ago. And obviously Parsons on other side now. I've always said Dak plays poorly in big games and last week was that. This week line seems like a trap but with gb off bad loss might get ugly since Dallas has the worst defense in long time. I mean look at what Wilson and Williams did. I see 5 12 season.
 
Week 3, Week 3, Week 3.

Last week we (which is some weird combo of me, me and this thread) about how Week 3 is a big deal week for 0-2 teams. And that you were very likely going to get their best game from them. I also mentioned that the team that worried me most about my three team ML parlay I gave out in the thread was Green Bay.

FML.

So, what happened? Well, you got really good games from almost every 0-2 team. The Saints and Titans are exceptions here and I think they kind of showed why, which we can talk about. And then there was Houston who, yet again, found a way to lose. Cool.

But before I get into specific teams, I think the biggest thing we learned this week is something that starts to kick in right about this week and that is, unfortunately, injuries.

There are teams with some pretty significant problems right now due to injury and I think no matter where you’re putting teams in terms of tiers or what have you, it’s something to look at.

Teams with OL injuries
Cleveland
Tampa
Tennessee
LAR
SF
Philly (kinda)

You then have teams with other cluster injuries or big injuries that they’re going to have to deal with.

Washington is a fucking mess in the secondary.

Dallas just lost CeeDee.

San Fran just lost Nick Bosa for the year, and Mac Jones aggravated a knee. They’re also down a DT for a week with a broken finger. They’ve also got two OL down until Week 7 and Kittle is still on IR. I’ve gotten pretty lucky with the Niners so far this season, I’m actually 3-0 with them which is kind of amazing since they could have lost both Sunday and in Seattle. But even though Purdy may be back this week (and I kind of expect him to be) I think now is when I bail on them. They’re too banged up—which seems like something we say every year about this team. But they are.

Arizona
IMO, losing James Connor is going to be the end of this team’s season. He’s the straw that stirs that team. I feel terrible for this dude. I don’t watch injury highlights so I won’t watch it, but apparently this one is really bad. I genuinely hope he makes a full recovery. They’ll probably fight like hell this week, but I will not be surprised if this team starts to crash and burn soon.

LA Chargers
Fuck me, I lost another Broncos’ ML for the second straight week. In two games they should have won. Sorry, I know this is supposed to be about the Chargers, so let me come back to Denver.

The Chargers won Sunday, but at what cost. OL injuries, Najee Harris is now gone. They lost Khail Mack to IR last week. Will Dissly’s hurt, their secondary is banged up. The only good news for them is that Sunday was a such a huge win in the division, they have cushion. They’re 3-0. Everyone else is 1-2—and they’ve beaten each of them. So they basically have a three game lead in the division. God help me, I will be betting the New York Football Giants this weekend. Or, I would be, but now Jaxson Dart is starting.

OK, since I’ve sort of transitioned—to talking about teams, not transitioned, transitioned, relax BAR—let’s talk about some teams.

Actually, no, wait. Let’s talk about a couple of overarching things first.

One thing you may recall I mentioned that these new kickoffs were going to lead to more points, IMO at least through this week. I still stand by that to a point—however, you saw this week that special teams coaches are already adapting which is something to note.

Teams are moving to the knuckleball and it’s genius. Sunday, the Eagles couldn’t field a single kickoff cleanly and it killed their starting field position. For other teams, the knuckler is getting by them and going into the endzone. Well, that touchback only takes it to the 20. So it’s a huge field position advantage. A couple of teams are really focused on this, Washington and the Rams to name two. But it’s a big deal and I expect teams to really start leaning into this to mitigate what that new kickoff does.

And then, in a few weeks, after every team adopts this new style, we’ll see receiving teams adjust back the other way. Game within the game, etc.

Also, there are a bunch of teams right now that are really struggling to run the ball and I think you’re going to see it become a real problem here over the next few weeks. Some of them have good QBs and a passing offense that they can turn the volume up on to help open this back up (think: Philly, Green Bay, LAC). However, others do not. And the teams that don't have a QB that they can turn to right now, imo, are about to start to go through some things.

The bottom three teams in the league right now running the ball are Cincy, Pitt, and the Raiders. With the Raiders, there was a stat today that has Jenty being hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on over 50% of his carries so far this season. Which is insane. Thing is, in all of these cases, these teams don’t have the QB to compensate for no run game. No offense to Geno, but if you put the ball in his hands 30+ times a game, he’s going to turn the ball over at least once. Browning? That dude loves turnovers.

It's something to watch, and imo, it’s something to fade. Unless you’re going to tell me you think that particular team’s QB, whoever he is, can make up for not currently being able to run, I don’t want that team.

Conversely, the teams that can run the ball really stand out. Detroit last night. The Rams and Indy on Sunday. If you can run right now, you look way ahead of most of the league.

Speaking of Pittsburgh, I got real lucky and won with them Sunday. But now is when I turn on them. They’re not good. I don’t like that they’re overseas this week, and that I don’t trust Carson Wentz, so I may not bet the Vikings. But I’ve already bet this over. The only reason Pittsburgh hasn’t had three straight games where they’ve given up over 20 is because NE turned the ball over twice inside the 10 Sunday. This defense isn’t there yet. And coming out of that game Rogers said he has to be better. He’s right. But to me that means he’s going to sling that rock next weekend. And I think Minnesota is going to be happy to take it from him. That total is at 41, I think it’s three points off. Just sayin.

How would I lose that total? Minnesota is getting healthier. They got Darrisaw back on their OL Sunday and Van Ginkel back on defense. They still have some injuries, and again, I don’t believe in Wentz, but something tells me that if this team can get healthier, they’re about to start getting pretty good until Wentz eventually explodes in a ball of flaming turnovers. So if that total loses, my guess is it’s because it's like the Pitt/NE game with a bunch of dumb redzone turnovers or drives that end around the 20 with FGs and the game ends something like 23-13.

And before I move off Pittsburgh/NE, it should be said that the Patriots kind of low-key dominated that game. But the problem with teams that are in building mode, is that they don’t finish games like this. Hell, Denver is like this too although arguably they should be further down the path because their defense is better. But good teams find ways to win close games, and that’s a learned skill. New England doesn’t have that yet. Also, Drake Maye needs to get better.

Let’s talk bad teams for a minute.

New Orleans is bad. Very bad. They’re not firing Moore because this was kind of the plan, but this team fucking sucks. I’m not laying -17 with Buffalo this week because there’s no reason for them to win by margin unless NO keeps turning the ball over. This is one of those classic get in/get out healthy games for Buffalo. But for NO, I’m looking at their schedule and after this week they get the Giants and Pats at home. Be really generous and say they win those two games. What other wins are on their schedule? Home vs. Carolina? Home vs. the Jets? At the Dolphins? At Tenny? Do I trust this team on the road? This looks a lot like a four win team to me.

Tennessee is also bad. Like really bad. Like they might fire their coach soon bad. They have injuries and they’re lucky their division sucks, but this team against even competent teams right now looks like a fade. At Houston this week, OK, Houston sucks too, but still, they should win here. It gets a little soft for them in the middle, @AZ, @LVR, NE, but then it gets bad. And by then their defense should be super worn out. I know it’s early, but there could be a pretty hard crashout coming for this team.

Cincy can’t run the football. Also Jake n Bake is going to throw the ball to the other team. He loves to do it. It feels like a fetish. He’s also probably going to put up some points because of the weapons he has but yeah, this team is bad.

In all three of those cases, there may be value in season unders, general ML fades, etc.

Speaking of teams with issues ...

Philly can’t run the ball right now, but that’s largely because their OL is weirdly patchwork. Part—but definitely not all—of the reason they were so bad in the first half Sunday was Lane Johnson went out very early with a neck stinger. And they’ve had shit like that every week it seems. Not a serious OL injury, but one that discombobulates their rhythm. And teams are really stacking up to stop Saquon. And their new OC seems like he might be a flaming pussy when it comes to play calls. However, last year, after this team went to Tampa and just got shit-housed, they had a bit of a come to Jesus meeting and figured it out. And the rest is history. There’s a chance, not a guarantee, but a chance, that moment this year came not in a loss, but Sunday right around halftime.

Jalen basically said as much after the game to Pam Oliver. He’s like, ‘We have to stop playing not to lose.’ Yeah, no shit. And it’s not shocking that the half-joke around the Birds Monday was that Jalen fired his OC at halftime on Sunday. Normally Tampa is a house of horrors for this team. But if Tampa is still down multiple people on their OL, and Mike Evans is out with the hamstring, even with Godwin back, I would not be surprised to see the Birds exorcise some demons in Tampa Bay, because that defense, while not all the way there yet as they showed in struggling to stop the run, is fully for real.

So far in the second half this year, the Eagles have allowed a combined seven points in three games. However they're adjusting at half, it's having an impact.

I was wrong on Chicago this week. My thought process was, ‘Caleb is going against his old coach who knows him super well and that coach’s one and only now job is defense. Not only that, even if Chicago is going to score, their secondary is awful so they’re going to have to keep pace with Dallas.' Welp, what I conveniently didn’t think about was that Ben Johnson knows Eberflus’ defenses as well as anyone from seeing them twice a year. That and the evergreen fact that Dallas fucking sucks.

I’m still not sold on Chicago. I don’t think their injury/defensive problems go away, but I do think I misread the spot. And that Dallas sucks.

Oh, I forgot about the Rams, who really should have won that game. But the Rams are struggling in the redzone. The Rams also have injury issues. The Rams also have Stafford who did not look right down the stretch of that game. Do not be surprised if you see money on Indy this week.

Cleveland and Houston might be the same team. Which is unfair to Cleveland’s defense because it might be one of the best in the NFL. But I’m now ready to call it, this is the 2023 Browns all over again. I think this team is going to be an auto-bet at home, probably an auto-under as well because their defense is just that good until they wear down later in the year. Their offense though is not. What’s really fucked up is, they don’t get a home game for weeks. Because after they go lose in Detroit this weekend, they have to go to London for a “home game” against Minny. Then they go to Pittsburgh before coming home for the Dolphins. And at a certain point here pretty soon, the QB change is coming.

Houston on the other hand, isn’t Cleveland exactly, but like Cleveland, it looks like Houston is going to waste a perfectly good defense with absolutely incompetent offense. Sucks to be them. Or to be like me and bet on them for two straight weeks. Those fucking fucks.

Staying in that division, I bet the Colts today to win the division. It’s -150, which I don’t love BUT look at that division. Tennessee is going to be just horrible. And Indy just beat them. So at 3-0, they have a three game lead on Houston, basically a four game lead on Tennessee. That leaves Jax. Which could happen. And they’re +200 so if you like them, there may be some value.

But look at Indy’s schedule. They have maybe five hard games left. @LAR, @LAC, @Houston? @Pitt?, @KC, @Seattle, and home vs. SF late in the year. I think this schedule sets up well for them. And unlike other teams, they can run the ball. If they can stay healthy, and stay ahead of the sticks because of their ground game, I like them for this division.

Speaking of divisions, the AFC North has two teams at 2-1 while Baltimore is 1-2 and the Ravens are still -380 to win that division. That speaks to lots of things, but also how valuable division games are.

I was also going to talk about Denver, but fuck Denver. Bo Nix lost that game for them Sunday damn near single-handedly. I’m not totally sure how you completely overthrow multiple wide open WRs for TDs in the same game and keep your job as a starting NFL QB. Maybe Bo Nix can explain it to me. Whatever, Denver was the right side, I don’t care, I’d bet that again. And probably lose it again. At least the ML, I split that bet and pushed on the +3.

Last thing for now, this is the last week of no byes before they start next week. And lots of times, people get all excited about teams coming out of byes with rest. But the real trick is looking at teams heading into their byes. They actually have a better record.

Teams that will have a bye after this week: Atlanta, Chicago, GB, Pittsburgh.

No, wait, I lied, one more last last thing.

During MNF last night something hit me that I’m going to try to implement this week.

Forget about Week 1 completely. Entirely. Erase it from your mind.

Too often Week 1 happens, and we’re so geeked to watch football that we watch it all. We take in as much info on these teams as we can because these are live bullets. But then we start focusing on our teams, or a couple of games we bet, and we let the other games kind of slide for a week or two because we think we already know about those teams.

Except the way the league is now, Week 1 is 100% Week 4 of the preseason. Teams don’t treat it that way, but that’s what happens in reality. So the good teams, the ones that are already kinda put together, tend to find ways to win—or kill teams that have a ton of new parts.

Meanwhile, the team you're going to be for the first say six or so weeks of the season doesn't really show up until now.

So if we are locked into an idea from Week 1 and we're holding onto that through weeks four, or six, it's a recipe for disaster.

Because—to go all the way back to where this started—what happens in Week 3? Injuries. And 0-3. Or 1-2 with huge emotional wins. Week 3 tends to be bit of a turning point for the first third of the season. So I would argue, throw out Week 1 entirely right now, weight Week 3 far more heavily and go from there.
 
Joe Public said:
Week 3, Week 3, Week 3.

Last week we (which is some weird combo of me, me and this thread) about how Week 3 is a big deal week for 0-2 teams. And that you were very likely going to get their best game from them. I also mentioned that the team that worried me most about my three team ML parlay I gave out in the thread was Green Bay.

FML.

So, what happened? Well, you got really good games from almost every 0-2 team. The Saints and Titans are exceptions here and I think they kind of showed why, which we can talk about. And then there was Houston who, yet again, found a way to lose. Cool.

But before I get into specific teams, I think the biggest thing we learned this week is something that starts to kick in right about this week and that is, unfortunately, injuries.

There are teams with some pretty significant problems right now due to injury and I think no matter where you’re putting teams in terms of tiers or what have you, it’s something to look at.

Teams with OL injuries
Cleveland
Tampa
Tennessee
LAR
SF
Philly (kinda)

You then have teams with other cluster injuries or big injuries that they’re going to have to deal with.

Washington is a fucking mess in the secondary.

Dallas just lost CeeDee.

San Fran just lost Nick Bosa for the year, and Mac Jones aggravated a knee. They’re also down a DT for a week with a broken finger. They’ve also got two OL down until Week 7 and Kittle is still on IR. I’ve gotten pretty lucky with the Niners so far this season, I’m actually 3-0 with them which is kind of amazing since they could have lost both Sunday and in Seattle. But even though Purdy may be back this week (and I kind of expect him to be) I think now is when I bail on them. They’re too banged up—which seems like something we say every year about this team. But they are.

Arizona
IMO, losing James Connor is going to be the end of this team’s season. He’s the straw that stirs that team. I feel terrible for this dude. I don’t watch injury highlights so I won’t watch it, but apparently this one is really bad. I genuinely hope he makes a full recovery. They’ll probably fight like hell this week, but I will not be surprised if this team starts to crash and burn soon.

LA Chargers
Fuck me, I lost another Broncos’ ML for the second straight week. In two games they should have won. Sorry, I know this is supposed to be about the Chargers, so let me come back to Denver.

The Chargers won Sunday, but at what cost. OL injuries, Najee Harris is now gone. They lost Khail Mack to IR last week. Will Dissly’s hurt, their secondary is banged up. The only good news for them is that Sunday was a such a huge win in the division, they have cushion. They’re 3-0. Everyone else is 1-2—and they’ve beaten each of them. So they basically have a three game lead in the division. God help me, I will be betting the New York Football Giants this weekend. Or, I would be, but now Jaxson Dart is starting.

OK, since I’ve sort of transitioned—to talking about teams, not transitioned, transitioned, relax BAR—let’s talk about some teams.

Actually, no, wait. Let’s talk about a couple of overarching things first.

One thing you may recall I mentioned that these new kickoffs were going to lead to more points, IMO at least through this week. I still stand by that to a point—however, you saw this week that special teams coaches are already adapting which is something to note.

Teams are moving to the knuckleball and it’s genius. Sunday, the Eagles couldn’t field a single kickoff cleanly and it killed their starting field position. For other teams, the knuckler is getting by them and going into the endzone. Well, that touchback only takes it to the 20. So it’s a huge field position advantage. A couple of teams are really focused on this, Washington and the Rams to name two. But it’s a big deal and I expect teams to really start leaning into this to mitigate what that new kickoff does.

And then, in a few weeks, after every team adopts this new style, we’ll see receiving teams adjust back the other way. Game within the game, etc.

Also, there are a bunch of teams right now that are really struggling to run the ball and I think you’re going to see it become a real problem here over the next few weeks. Some of them have good QBs and a passing offense that they can turn the volume up on to help open this back up (think: Philly, Green Bay, LAC). However, others do not. And the teams that don't have a QB that they can turn to right now, imo, are about to start to go through some things.

The bottom three teams in the league right now running the ball are Cincy, Pitt, and the Raiders. With the Raiders, there was a stat today that has Jenty being hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on over 50% of his carries so far this season. Which is insane. Thing is, in all of these cases, these teams don’t have the QB to compensate for no run game. No offense to Geno, but if you put the ball in his hands 30+ times a game, he’s going to turn the ball over at least once. Browning? That dude loves turnovers.

It's something to watch, and imo, it’s something to fade. Unless you’re going to tell me you think that particular team’s QB, whoever he is, can make up for not currently being able to run, I don’t want that team.

Conversely, the teams that can run the ball really stand out. Detroit last night. The Rams and Indy on Sunday. If you can run right now, you look way ahead of most of the league.

Speaking of Pittsburgh, I got real lucky and won with them Sunday. But now is when I turn on them. They’re not good. I don’t like that they’re overseas this week, and that I don’t trust Carson Wentz, so I may not bet the Vikings. But I’ve already bet this over. The only reason Pittsburgh hasn’t had three straight games where they’ve given up over 20 is because NE turned the ball over twice inside the 10 Sunday. This defense isn’t there yet. And coming out of that game Rogers said he has to be better. He’s right. But to me that means he’s going to sling that rock next weekend. And I think Minnesota is going to be happy to take it from him. That total is at 41, I think it’s three points off. Just sayin.

How would I lose that total? Minnesota is getting healthier. They got Darrisaw back on their OL Sunday and Van Ginkel back on defense. They still have some injuries, and again, I don’t believe in Wentz, but something tells me that if this team can get healthier, they’re about to start getting pretty good until Wentz eventually explodes in a ball of flaming turnovers. So if that total loses, my guess is it’s because it's like the Pitt/NE game with a bunch of dumb redzone turnovers or drives that end around the 20 with FGs and the game ends something like 23-13.

And before I move off Pittsburgh/NE, it should be said that the Patriots kind of low-key dominated that game. But the problem with teams that are in building mode, is that they don’t finish games like this. Hell, Denver is like this too although arguably they should be further down the path because their defense is better. But good teams find ways to win close games, and that’s a learned skill. New England doesn’t have that yet. Also, Drake Maye needs to get better.

Let’s talk bad teams for a minute.

New Orleans is bad. Very bad. They’re not firing Moore because this was kind of the plan, but this team fucking sucks. I’m not laying -17 with Buffalo this week because there’s no reason for them to win by margin unless NO keeps turning the ball over. This is one of those classic get in/get out healthy games for Buffalo. But for NO, I’m looking at their schedule and after this week they get the Giants and Pats at home. Be really generous and say they win those two games. What other wins are on their schedule? Home vs. Carolina? Home vs. the Jets? At the Dolphins? At Tenny? Do I trust this team on the road? This looks a lot like a four win team to me.

Tennessee is also bad. Like really bad. Like they might fire their coach soon bad. They have injuries and they’re lucky their division sucks, but this team against even competent teams right now looks like a fade. At Houston this week, OK, Houston sucks too, but still, they should win here. It gets a little soft for them in the middle, @AZ, @LVR, NE, but then it gets bad. And by then their defense should be super worn out. I know it’s early, but there could be a pretty hard crashout coming for this team.

Cincy can’t run the football. Also Jake n Bake is going to throw the ball to the other team. He loves to do it. It feels like a fetish. He’s also probably going to put up some points because of the weapons he has but yeah, this team is bad.

In all three of those cases, there may be value in season unders, general ML fades, etc.

Speaking of teams with issues ...

Philly can’t run the ball right now, but that’s largely because their OL is weirdly patchwork. Part—but definitely not all—of the reason they were so bad in the first half Sunday was Lane Johnson went out very early with a neck stinger. And they’ve had shit like that every week it seems. Not a serious OL injury, but one that discombobulates their rhythm. And teams are really stacking up to stop Saquon. And their new OC seems like he might be a flaming pussy when it comes to play calls. However, last year, after this team went to Tampa and just got shit-housed, they had a bit of a come to Jesus meeting and figured it out. And the rest is history. There’s a chance, not a guarantee, but a chance, that moment this year came not in a loss, but Sunday right around halftime.

Jalen basically said as much after the game to Pam Oliver. He’s like, ‘We have to stop playing not to lose.’ Yeah, no shit. And it’s not shocking that the half-joke around the Birds Monday was that Jalen fired his OC at halftime on Sunday. Normally Tampa is a house of horrors for this team. But if Tampa is still down multiple people on their OL, and Mike Evans is out with the hamstring, even with Godwin back, I would not be surprised to see the Birds exorcise some demons in Tampa Bay, because that defense, while not all the way there yet as they showed in struggling to stop the run, is fully for real.

So far in the second half this year, the Eagles have allowed a combined seven points in three games. However they're adjusting at half, it's having an impact.

I was wrong on Chicago this week. My thought process was, ‘Caleb is going against his old coach who knows him super well and that coach’s one and only now job is defense. Not only that, even if Chicago is going to score, their secondary is awful so they’re going to have to keep pace with Dallas.' Welp, what I conveniently didn’t think about was that Ben Johnson knows Eberflus’ defenses as well as anyone from seeing them twice a year. That and the evergreen fact that Dallas fucking sucks.

I’m still not sold on Chicago. I don’t think their injury/defensive problems go away, but I do think I misread the spot. And that Dallas sucks.

Oh, I forgot about the Rams, who really should have won that game. But the Rams are struggling in the redzone. The Rams also have injury issues. The Rams also have Stafford who did not look right down the stretch of that game. Do not be surprised if you see money on Indy this week.

Cleveland and Houston might be the same team. Which is unfair to Cleveland’s defense because it might be one of the best in the NFL. But I’m now ready to call it, this is the 2023 Browns all over again. I think this team is going to be an auto-bet at home, probably an auto-under as well because their defense is just that good until they wear down later in the year. Their offense though is not. What’s really fucked up is, they don’t get a home game for weeks. Because after they go lose in Detroit this weekend, they have to go to London for a “home game” against Minny. Then they go to Pittsburgh before coming home for the Dolphins. And at a certain point here pretty soon, the QB change is coming.

Houston on the other hand, isn’t Cleveland exactly, but like Cleveland, it looks like Houston is going to waste a perfectly good defense with absolutely incompetent offense. Sucks to be them. Or to be like me and bet on them for two straight weeks. Those fucking fucks.

Staying in that division, I bet the Colts today to win the division. It’s -150, which I don’t love BUT look at that division. Tennessee is going to be just horrible. And Indy just beat them. So at 3-0, they have a three game lead on Houston, basically a four game lead on Tennessee. That leaves Jax. Which could happen. And they’re +200 so if you like them, there may be some value.

But look at Indy’s schedule. They have maybe five hard games left. @LAR, @LAC, @Houston? @Pitt?, @KC, @Seattle, and home vs. SF late in the year. I think this schedule sets up well for them. And unlike other teams, they can run the ball. If they can stay healthy, and stay ahead of the sticks because of their ground game, I like them for this division.

Speaking of divisions, the AFC North has two teams at 2-1 while Baltimore is 1-2 and the Ravens are still -380 to win that division. That speaks to lots of things, but also how valuable division games are.

I was also going to talk about Denver, but fuck Denver. Bo Nix lost that game for them Sunday damn near single-handedly. I’m not totally sure how you completely overthrow multiple wide open WRs for TDs in the same game and keep your job as a starting NFL QB. Maybe Bo Nix can explain it to me. Whatever, Denver was the right side, I don’t care, I’d bet that again. And probably lose it again. At least the ML, I split that bet and pushed on the +3.

Last thing for now, this is the last week of no byes before they start next week. And lots of times, people get all excited about teams coming out of byes with rest. But the real trick is looking at teams heading into their byes. They actually have a better record.

Teams that will have a bye after this week: Atlanta, Chicago, GB, Pittsburgh.

No, wait, I lied, one more last last thing.

During MNF last night something hit me that I’m going to try to implement this week.

Forget about Week 1 completely. Entirely. Erase it from your mind.

Too often Week 1 happens, and we’re so geeked to watch football that we watch it all. We take in as much info on these teams as we can because these are live bullets. But then we start focusing on our teams, or a couple of games we bet, and we let the other games kind of slide for a week or two because we think we already know about those teams.

Except the way the league is now, Week 1 is 100% Week 4 of the preseason. Teams don’t treat it that way, but that’s what happens in reality. So the good teams, the ones that are already kinda put together, tend to find ways to win—or kill teams that have a ton of new parts.

Meanwhile, the team you're going to be for the first say six or so weeks of the season doesn't really show up until now.

So if we are locked into an idea from Week 1 and we're holding onto that through weeks four, or six, it's a recipe for disaster.

Because—to go all the way back to where this started—what happens in Week 3? Injuries. And 0-3. Or 1-2 with huge emotional wins. Week 3 tends to be bit of a turning point for the first third of the season. So I would argue, throw out Week 1 entirely right now, weight Week 3 far more heavily and go from there.
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great read thanks. Yeah LAC injuries gotta catch up soon. I thought Slater going out would be devasting but they've survived it so far. I didn't see the game but read the Broncos were all over Herbert but somehow he pulled out the W. But sounded like their OL was pretty bad. Now Mack. I understand betting NYG this weekend but that's a hold your nose type of play. Gotta think that tough LAC D will get some TOs vs Dart. But agree NYG had to make that move. Thanks
 
The Slater thing is a great example of the Week 1 bias @lvmike32. I was dead sure that was going to borderline derail their season. But they overcame it. Only now you have Beckton in the protocol with a concussion. Those are two massive humans. Kudos for overcoming the one, but now it's two. Also, it just so happens that this week the one thing the Giants really have going for them is their DL.

I also feel like it's a bit of a tell that the Giants just replaced their QB and the line is holding at +6.5.
 
Joe Public said:
The Slater thing is a great example of the Week 1 bias @lvmike32. I was dead sure that was going to borderline derail their season. But they overcame it. Only now you have Beckton in the protocol with a concussion. Those are two massive humans. Kudos for overcoming the one, but now it's two. Also, it just so happens that this week the one thing the Giants really have going for them is their DL.

I also feel like it's a bit of a tell that the Giants just replaced their QB and the line is holding at +6.5.
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yeah, all Summer I was going to play LAC +3.5 vs. KC first game big. But after Slater I passed. Not up to speed like u on Beckton but just from reading about the Denver game it sounded like Herbert was running for his life. The NYG defensive line is their strength and should give Herbert fits but I thought that about Dallas and Dak too. But they're probably going to win 5 or 6 games and it sure seems like this week could be an upset. Dart has been great but Minter has LAC D playing great and they'll likely sit back 2 deep and see if he makes mistakes (like Wilson usually does). If Dart stays away from disaster I think they cover or even win. Needs to be patient, dink/dunk and run for FDs. Might join you. GL
 
Watching the Cowboys attempt to play zone defense is grade A humor. But this tells you how bad it is:

According to ESPN Research, the Cowboys have allowed the most completions and passing touchdowns of 25 yards or more through three games in the past 45 years.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Watching the Cowboys attempt to play zone defense is grade A humor. But this tells you how bad it is:

According to ESPN Research, the Cowboys have allowed the most completions and passing touchdowns of 25 yards or more through three games in the past 45 years.
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The Parsons deal looks better for both teams.
Jerry shoulda just done it earlier.
Parsons is a great player, but you’re telling me 111 million guaranteed to one guy that’s a roamer would fix that Defense? No fucking way
 
Gandolf said:
That's worse than losing Dak. Lamb makes that whole offense go. Dak still needs to see guys open to throw it, and Lamb was their main guy who could always get open. Pickens is a combat catch guy who Dak still has to learn to trust. Ferguson can get open but only with 5 yards of the LOS. Without Lamb defenses will add a guy to the box to slow the running game (plus #1 pick Booker is also going to be out 3-4 weeks). With no defense to speak of this could spiral into a Dave Campo type season.
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They hired a Dave Campo level coach so this was always the ultimate outcome.
 
Every offseason there are coaching hires that everyone knows won't work out yet there is shock when Dallas can't stop a local high school offense or gasp the team wearing green goes from being a good defense to trash after hiring an historically bad DC as head coach. Sometimes the obvious is just that and why guys like Schottenheimer and the other clown even get these jobs is totally due to stupid owners.
 
twinkie13 said:
The Parsons deal looks better for both teams.
Jerry shoulda just done it earlier.
Parsons is a great player, but you’re telling me 111 million guaranteed to one guy that’s a roamer would fix that Defense? No fucking way
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Yeah, I think most would say it was just the timing. SOP for Jones.

Watch, he'll do the same for Aubrey. For Jones it's rarely about being a smart football move. It's about what will generate the most noise. And when you're a carnival barker that's what you do.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Yeah, I think most would say it was just the timing. SOP for Jones.

Watch, he'll do the same for Aubrey. For Jones it's rarely about being a smart football move. It's about what will generate the most noise. And when you're a carnival barker that's what you do.
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Kind of the perfect storm too though. Made a ton of sense in the end, not many teams were in the unique position in many ways to do it.
 
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