Inspekdah
My man, Novak Djokovic!
Week 3 Plizzayz, Updated 9.15
Posted Record
13-5-1 +9.15 UNITS
EDITED RUNDOWN ON 9/18
WVU W
TOL W
NEV W
MINN W
OKST W
AUB W
BALL W
ILL L
FLA L
MICH W
UL W
9-2 +8.45 UNITS
Last week was tough. Got moosed on Oklohoma with that last TD drive by Washington to cut it to 17. Then within minutes Clemson had the ball 1st and goal on the 3 to win in OT and got backed up to 3rd and deep... only to miss a PAT the next OT to lose by a PAT. Two bad beats that changed things from a great day to an average day posted picks wise. I hit the Buckeyes small and also hit a 6 teamer $20 parlay with Rutgers, VT, Oklahoma (push), Ohio St., Wyoming, California and LSU. So things ended up alright with that nice little pick me up.
This week I like laying some serious chalk on some teams that I feel will not let up vs. what I think are the two worst teams in college football.
TEMPLE AT MINNESOTA -41 1 UNIT ***WINNER***money;
Minnesota has a great history ATS of laying it on opponents out of conference and covering large spreads. Kent St. is a SUPERIOR ball club to Temple in every aspect and look what Minnesota did rolling in there in the opener. California was the right play last week but the Gophers were in the game for about 3 quarters and were able to move the ball. I think they jump out by 28 in the 1st half and their backups lay on another 14 to 21 in the second half. Look for a final score of 56-3. Temple cannot be used to playing in domes and this is Minnesota's home opener. Two things all pointing to a relentless beat down on Temple. This will be nice practice for Cupito to continue to mesh with his receivers as they become more comfortable relying on the pass after having such great studs in Maroney and Russel carry them the last couple of years.
FAU AT OKLAHOMA ST. -28 (-120) 2.5 UNITS **W**
Largest play of the season...played 1.5 units on Miami week one just to kick things off and haven't gone above a unit until now. I first glimpsed over this play and marked it on my sheet as something to look over again. Then I read Killa's post (whose been very selective and is 7-0 thus far this season) and it hit me. FAU has absolutely nothing going for them right now. They have been on the road for what will be their 3rd week in a row. Losing to Clemson 54-6 (it could have been MUCH worse but I think Bowden showed mercy) and then 45-0 to an average Kansas State team. Oklahoma St. just beat a much better team in Arky St. last week 35-7. Two field goals FAU has scored in two weeks... I'll take my chances that they score no more than this total this game... and Oky State will put up at least 35. However, I love athletic QB's vs. weak defenses and weaker teams. 3rd downs are so much easier because of this.. because the dual threat against slower defenses is so much more dominant.
How about 45-6, Cowboys.
COLORADO ST. @ NEVADA -3 1 UNIT **WINNER**
This is basically another co-tail of a few cappers here (pags, Killa, etc). I love Nevada in this spot at home. They moved the ball well against ASU... just didn't always put up points b/c of turnovers. I think CSU's offense is so dismantled right now with the loss of Bell that they will be way too one-dimensional for an inspired Nevada team comming home after tough rough road losses. Since the 2nd half of the Fresno game the O has been moving the ball and the Pistol will be out whipping a$$ all night. Love the ATS letdown historically for Colorada St. after playing Colorado.
WVU -16. ***WINNER***money;
I think this line is off and WVU should roll by no less than 3 TD's.
ADDITIONAL PLAYS: (UPDATED 9.15.06)
FRIDAY
TOLEDO -5 -110 1 UNIT ****WINNER****money;
Tailing this one... leaned this way and it feels right.
SATURDAY
FLA GATORS -3 @ TENN -120 1.5 UNITS **L7 WEENIE**
This team IMO is superior to Tenn in every way. Tenn I believe lost alot last week. They had the game sealed up and in minutes they were watching Air Force take the field with the chance to ruin their season deep into week... TWO... Well losing to Florida necessarily won't ruin the season as a whole and they'll bounce back and continue to improve. FLA's defense is just playing so well right now and you knew eventually Leak would look comfortable in the spread offense. I think this is a close game so I had to buy the hook but don't see FLA losing their national championship hopes so early on to a Tenn team that is not on their level.
ILLINOIS -3.5 VS. CUSE -105 1/2 UNIT *LOSER*
Played Rutgets last week, but think the Illini bounce back at home vs. an equally horrible team. Syracuse looked good against Iowa and their backup QB at home and should have potentially won that game. I think that was a huge deflating loss and this will be a hard chance to get things back on track as they move into double digit losses in a row. Small play b/c of how bad both teams are but think this is a good spot for the Fighting Illini. I'll take the bottom of the B10 over the East anyday in football.
AUBURN -3 VS. LSU -120 1.5 UNITS ***WINNER***
Gimme the home team. Auburn right now I think is slightly more impressive than LSU. Feel that Auburn is a team that will always find a way to win games this season and could run the gauntlet. The team is stacked and look great from what I've seen. I'll co-tail with some of you on this one.
BALL STATE +17 @ PURDUE +1 1/2 UNIT ***WINNER***money;
I liked this play the minute I saw it based on Purdue's horrible defense. They should not lay more than 2 TD's to anyone. Especially a team with basically their whole offense returning including every skill position. Ball has looked good so far this year and really have their eyes on taking this game vs. a Big Ten team on the ropes between disgrace and former prestiege. I think they're closer to being more of a bottom barrel B10 team than turning it around. I think Ball can easily play them tough enough to cover this number. 1/2 Unit because this is BALL STATE. The name alone is hard to tell someone you just bet a few hundred bucks on them... but I like the spot and will hit them here small.
MICHIGAN +6 1 UNIT **WINNER**
LOUISVILLE -4 1 UNIT **WINNER**
Posted Record
13-5-1 +9.15 UNITS
EDITED RUNDOWN ON 9/18
WVU W
TOL W
NEV W
MINN W
OKST W
AUB W
BALL W
ILL L
FLA L
MICH W
UL W
9-2 +8.45 UNITS
Last week was tough. Got moosed on Oklohoma with that last TD drive by Washington to cut it to 17. Then within minutes Clemson had the ball 1st and goal on the 3 to win in OT and got backed up to 3rd and deep... only to miss a PAT the next OT to lose by a PAT. Two bad beats that changed things from a great day to an average day posted picks wise. I hit the Buckeyes small and also hit a 6 teamer $20 parlay with Rutgers, VT, Oklahoma (push), Ohio St., Wyoming, California and LSU. So things ended up alright with that nice little pick me up.
This week I like laying some serious chalk on some teams that I feel will not let up vs. what I think are the two worst teams in college football.
TEMPLE AT MINNESOTA -41 1 UNIT ***WINNER***money;
Minnesota has a great history ATS of laying it on opponents out of conference and covering large spreads. Kent St. is a SUPERIOR ball club to Temple in every aspect and look what Minnesota did rolling in there in the opener. California was the right play last week but the Gophers were in the game for about 3 quarters and were able to move the ball. I think they jump out by 28 in the 1st half and their backups lay on another 14 to 21 in the second half. Look for a final score of 56-3. Temple cannot be used to playing in domes and this is Minnesota's home opener. Two things all pointing to a relentless beat down on Temple. This will be nice practice for Cupito to continue to mesh with his receivers as they become more comfortable relying on the pass after having such great studs in Maroney and Russel carry them the last couple of years.
FAU AT OKLAHOMA ST. -28 (-120) 2.5 UNITS **W**
Largest play of the season...played 1.5 units on Miami week one just to kick things off and haven't gone above a unit until now. I first glimpsed over this play and marked it on my sheet as something to look over again. Then I read Killa's post (whose been very selective and is 7-0 thus far this season) and it hit me. FAU has absolutely nothing going for them right now. They have been on the road for what will be their 3rd week in a row. Losing to Clemson 54-6 (it could have been MUCH worse but I think Bowden showed mercy) and then 45-0 to an average Kansas State team. Oklahoma St. just beat a much better team in Arky St. last week 35-7. Two field goals FAU has scored in two weeks... I'll take my chances that they score no more than this total this game... and Oky State will put up at least 35. However, I love athletic QB's vs. weak defenses and weaker teams. 3rd downs are so much easier because of this.. because the dual threat against slower defenses is so much more dominant.
How about 45-6, Cowboys.
COLORADO ST. @ NEVADA -3 1 UNIT **WINNER**
This is basically another co-tail of a few cappers here (pags, Killa, etc). I love Nevada in this spot at home. They moved the ball well against ASU... just didn't always put up points b/c of turnovers. I think CSU's offense is so dismantled right now with the loss of Bell that they will be way too one-dimensional for an inspired Nevada team comming home after tough rough road losses. Since the 2nd half of the Fresno game the O has been moving the ball and the Pistol will be out whipping a$$ all night. Love the ATS letdown historically for Colorada St. after playing Colorado.
WVU -16. ***WINNER***money;
I think this line is off and WVU should roll by no less than 3 TD's.
ADDITIONAL PLAYS: (UPDATED 9.15.06)
FRIDAY
TOLEDO -5 -110 1 UNIT ****WINNER****money;
Tailing this one... leaned this way and it feels right.
SATURDAY
FLA GATORS -3 @ TENN -120 1.5 UNITS **L7 WEENIE**
This team IMO is superior to Tenn in every way. Tenn I believe lost alot last week. They had the game sealed up and in minutes they were watching Air Force take the field with the chance to ruin their season deep into week... TWO... Well losing to Florida necessarily won't ruin the season as a whole and they'll bounce back and continue to improve. FLA's defense is just playing so well right now and you knew eventually Leak would look comfortable in the spread offense. I think this is a close game so I had to buy the hook but don't see FLA losing their national championship hopes so early on to a Tenn team that is not on their level.
ILLINOIS -3.5 VS. CUSE -105 1/2 UNIT *LOSER*
Played Rutgets last week, but think the Illini bounce back at home vs. an equally horrible team. Syracuse looked good against Iowa and their backup QB at home and should have potentially won that game. I think that was a huge deflating loss and this will be a hard chance to get things back on track as they move into double digit losses in a row. Small play b/c of how bad both teams are but think this is a good spot for the Fighting Illini. I'll take the bottom of the B10 over the East anyday in football.
AUBURN -3 VS. LSU -120 1.5 UNITS ***WINNER***
Gimme the home team. Auburn right now I think is slightly more impressive than LSU. Feel that Auburn is a team that will always find a way to win games this season and could run the gauntlet. The team is stacked and look great from what I've seen. I'll co-tail with some of you on this one.
BALL STATE +17 @ PURDUE +1 1/2 UNIT ***WINNER***money;
I liked this play the minute I saw it based on Purdue's horrible defense. They should not lay more than 2 TD's to anyone. Especially a team with basically their whole offense returning including every skill position. Ball has looked good so far this year and really have their eyes on taking this game vs. a Big Ten team on the ropes between disgrace and former prestiege. I think they're closer to being more of a bottom barrel B10 team than turning it around. I think Ball can easily play them tough enough to cover this number. 1/2 Unit because this is BALL STATE. The name alone is hard to tell someone you just bet a few hundred bucks on them... but I like the spot and will hit them here small.
MICHIGAN +6 1 UNIT **WINNER**
LOUISVILLE -4 1 UNIT **WINNER**
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