Week 3 NFL

TreyDawg

TreyDawg

Pretty much a regular
Sides: 6-7 -3.84u
Totals: 0-0 +0.00u
ML: 4-5 -6.27u
Teaser: 4-1 +4.43u
UDMLP: 0-2 -1.0u
ML Parlay: 4-0 +7.04u
Longshot: 1-1 +19.42u
TD Player Prop: 1-8 -9.12u
Straight Player Prop: 2-1 +1.52u
Player Prop Parlay: 2-2 +1.16u
Team Total: 1-0 +2.0u

Total Overall: 25-27 +15.34u

Would love to have all the categories in the green by the playoffs. Long way to go on the TD props. 😂 Need to slow down there for sure so will try and pick and choose instead of playing volume. Feel like there's a couple of good spots this week and will update this window with plays as they're added. Waiting on a couple to see where they settle and some injury news and will try and have some Redskins thoughts. Week 3 already, man where does the time go?

Sides:
Rams +3.5 -121 (3.63/3)
Chargers -2.5 -120 (3.0/2.5)
Browns +7.5 -117 (2.93/2.5)
Pats +2 -110 (2.2/2)
Bucs -6 -115 (2.3/2)
Titans +4.5 -110 (2.2/2)

Totals:
Cowboys/Bears o50 -108 (1.08/1)
Steelers/Pats 044.5 -112 (1.12/1)

ML:
Cowboys ML -116 (3.48/3)
Rams ML +161 (1/1.61)
Pats ML +112 (1/1.12)
Texans ML +105 (3/3.15)
Redskins ML -150 (3/2)

7 pt Teaser:
Rams +10/Pats +9/Bucs +0.5 +127 (1/1.27)
Bengals +10/Bucs +0.5/Seahawks -0.5 +127 (1/1.27)
Steelers&Pats o37.5/Cowboys&Bears o43/Chiefs&Giants u52 +135 (1/1.35)

UDMLP:
Rams +161/Pats +113/Texans +105 +1040 (0.5/5.20)

ML Parlay:
Bills -850/Falcons -240/Bucs -315/Chiefs -290 +181 (1/1.81)
Falcons -230/Bucs -305/Seahawks -400 +138 (1/1.38)
Bucs -305/Chiefs -295/Ravens -245 +150 (1/1.5)

Longshot:
Bengals ML +139/Rams +3 +104/Pats ML +112/Chargers ML -148/Cowboys ML -116/Ravens ML -245 +4442 (0.5/22.21)

TD Player Prop:
Ja'mar Chase +120 (1.5/1.8)
Deebo Samuel +200 (1/2)
George Pickens +140 (1/1.4)

Straight Player Prop:
Drake Maye o1.5 TD Passes +140 (1/1.4)
Justin Jefferson o82.5 rec yds +120 (1/1.2)
CeeDee Lamb o93.5 rec yds +114 (1/1.14)
Nick Chubb o60.5 rush yds +127 (1/1.27)

Player Prop Parlay:
Dak Prescott o1.5 TD passes -150/Josh Jacobs anytime TD -200 +150 (1/1.5)
Bijan Robinson o81.5 rush yds/Anytime TD +121 (1/1.21)
Brock Bowers o4.5rec/o58.5 rec yds +102 (1/1.02)
Jakobi Meyers 05.5rec/o63.5rec yds +118 (1/1.18)

Team Total:
Pats o21.5 -110 (1.65/1.5)
Cowboys o24.5 -110 (1.65/1.5)



🍀 GL to everyone this week 🍀
 
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Initial Leans:
Colts (tease or ML)
Falcons
Browns
Rams
Pats
Bucs (tease or ML)
Texans
Seahawks (tease or ML)
Cowboys
 
Cowboys ML -116 (3.48/3)

Not because of the 40 burger against the Giants. Dak does seem to have the offense humming though. Definitely not because of the defense, might not get a lot this week from Clowney but he could fill a void eventually. The secondary was watching Robinson/Nabers just run through untouched last week. Russ can still throw the moon ball it appears. So not sure I see the Cowboy defense pitching a shutout or anything.

Question is can Caleb take advantage of the Cowboys secondary and hit the deep ball like Russ did? I don’t think so. I’m not liking the vibe of Johnson/Williams so far. Plenty of reports saying Caleb is struggling to pick up the offense. And the ‘85 Bears defense ain’t walking through the door. Bottom line is Dak will move the ball and score a bunch and I think the Cowboys could win a shootout if it came to it. I don’t think the Bears offense will be able to keep up in this one.

Dal 31 Chi 21
 
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I parlayed packers falcons bills chiefs Seahawks and colts earlier and got it at +444 I don’t see any of these teams losing
 
Dragos said:
I parlayed packers falcons bills chiefs Seahawks and colts earlier and got it at +444 I don’t see any of these teams losing
Click to expand...

Yeah man that would make sense for sure. I'm a little worried how confident in some of the ML partners cause that's when one jumps up to bite you in the backside.

GL this week!
 
ML Parlay
Bills -850/Falcons -240/Bucs -315/Chiefs -290 +181 (1/1.81)
 
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Rams +3.5 -121 (2.42/2)
Rams ML +161 (1/1.61)

I get it, the Eagles are the defending champs and one of the best teams in the whole league. They won't go undefeated though and they aren't Invincible (good movie by the way). NFC East division games are usually a battle, or at least somewhat emotional especially against the Cowboys. Beat the Chiefs in the SB rematch and now get the Rams in another playoff rematch before the Bucs next week. I think they lose either this week or next. Stafford looking healthy gives me a little more confidence and if you're gonna win a game like this it'd be early before he gets hurt. Rams have weapons to give the Philly D some heartburn and the Rams D is 4th in ypg, have 8 sacks, and allowed the fewest pts through 2 weeks. Maybe they haven't played the best competition but you play who's on the schedule. I think the Rams Dline can get pressure the backfield and disrupt the run game and get pressure on Hurts with the front 4. The 2 long Barkley runs in the Divisional game was the backbreaker so I think they'll find a way to keep that in check and squeak out a close one.

LAR 23 Phi 20
 
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Chargers -2.5 -120 (3.0/2.5)

Put me in the Bo Nix wait and see camp. I won't say overrated just yet but certainly don't see what some do to this point to talk about him as they do. I don't think he's looked all that great through 2 weeks and it's not like he's seen the Purple Eaters of defenses just yet. And I don't think this Chargers defense is a good spot to feel better about yourself either. There's only 5 QBs with less pass yds per game than Bo and 7 with a lower rating. Denver has had success running but that's where the strength of the Charger D is. Charger D is middle of the pack through the air but can Bo take advantage? Broncos D was supposed to be good but Daniel Jones, yes that Daniel Jones, lit them up last week and Jonathan Taylor had himself a game too. Chargers will be able to move the ball and Herbert gonna keep cookin. He and Harbaugh are in a groove and I don't think it changes this weekend.

LAC 27 Den 17
 
Browns +7.5 -117 (2.93/2.5)

Hold your nose on this one. Just a gut feeling here and we have to have some of these bigger dogs play a close ish game. Browns at home and I'm hoping their D can get pressure on JLove with the injuries on the OLine. Packers maybe looking ahead to Dallas and wanting that one bad for Micah. GB should win but maybe it's one of those just get through it as healthy as you can and on to next week kind of games. There's really no reason to try and blowout the Browns here imo. It can still happen but I think they want next week worse.

GB 27 Cle 21
 
Pats +2 -110 (2.2/2)
Pats ML +112 (1/1.12)

Two awful defenses. Feel like I'm square as square can be too. But I don't see a defensive battle here at all. Pats might get Gonzalez back this week which would be big for them, he's had some success against Metcalf. I wasn't high on Rodgers preseason and thought maybe the Pats might could be a surprise WC contender in the AFC. Well if that's the case then NE needs to get it done here. Steelers haven't found their run game yet and I'm not sure I wanna lean on a 40yr old arm 30+ every game like they have in the first 2 games with mixed results. I don't put a lot into the past history stuff but Foxboro not been kind to Tomlin either. I'll take the dog at home in a semi shootout.

NE 30 Pit 24
 
ML Parlay
Falcons -230/Bucs -305/Seahawks -400 +138 (1/1.38)
Bucs -305/Chiefs -295/Ravens -245 +150 (1/1.5)

Longshot
Bengals ML +139/Rams +3 +104/Pats ML +112/Chargers ML -148/Cowboys ML -116/Ravens ML -245 +4442 (0.5/22.21)

Totals
Cowboys/Bears o50 -108 (1.08/1)
Steelers/Pats 044.5 -112 (1.12/1)
 
TD Player Prop:
Ja'mar Chase +120 (1.5/1.8)
Deebo Samuel +200 (1/2)
George Pickens +140 (1/1.4)

Straight Player Prop:
Drake Maye o1.5 TD Passes +140 (1/1.4)
Justin Jefferson o82.5 rec yds +120 (1/1.2)
CeeDee Lamb o93.5 rec yds +114 (1/1.14)
Nick Chubb o60.5 rush yds +127 (1/1.27)

Player Prop Parlay:
Dak Prescott o1.5 TD passes -150/Josh Jacobs anytime TD -200 +150 (1/1.5)
Bijan Robinson o81.5 rush yds/Anytime TD +121 (1/1.21)
 
7 pt tease
Rams +10/Pats +9/Bucs +0.5 +127 (1/1.27)
Bengals +10/Bucs +0.5/Seahawks -0.5 +127 (1/1.27)
Steelers&Pats o37.5/Cowboys&Bears o43/Chiefs&Giants u52 +135 (1/1.35)

Team Total
Pats o21.5 -110 (1.65/1.5)
Cowboys o24.5 -110 (1.65/1.5)
 
Will have a play or two for Raiders/Skins, just waiting to see where it lands after the news of Daniels being out this weekend
 
Texans ML +105 (3/3.15)

Still not a believer in Duval so more a fade of them than anything. That Texans defense is gonna have TLaw running for his life all day. Houston shoulda beat Tampa and held a good Rams offense to 14 pts. Jacksonville is a step down in class than the past 2 weeks and that Houston defense gonna feast. CJ not exactly lighting the world on fire but he and Chubb will do enough to get the W.

Hou 23 Jax 13
 
Titans +4.5 -110 (2.2/2)

Another hold your nose and I can’t stay off it. Have the Colts looked good out the gate, sure. Have the Titans looked awful to start the season, you betcha. I get all the reasons why the Colts should/could roll this weekend.

However, the Colts beat Miami wk1 but they’re terrible and they shoulda lost last week. Denver got robbed. Indy been at home for the first two and go on the road for the first time this week. Tennessee at home back to back and Indy is a step down in class from the Rams and Cam looked better in wk2 from wk1.

If I had a top 6 QB in yds, yds/gm, QBR, & rating normally I may want to be all over that side against a bad team. But this is Daniel Jones, yes that Daniel Jones is top 6 in those passing categories. Mahomes, Allen, Baker, and even Stafford are below Danny Dimes in some of those. Huh? K, well my money says Daniel Dimes Jones hasn’t suddenly turned into a top 6 QB in the league. At some point he’ll regress. Maybe it’s this week.

This is nothing more than a classic buy low/sell high play. Selling the Colts as high as I think they could be to this point and the Titans pretty dang low. I’ll call for a retro Danny Dimes subpar performance but JTaylor carries the load in a close one.

Ind 23 Ten 21
 
TreyDawg said:
Rams +3.5 -121 (2.42/2)
Rams ML +161 (1/1.61)

I get it, the Eagles are the defending champs and one of the best teams in the whole league. They won't go undefeated though and they aren't Invincible (good movie by the way). NFC East division games are usually a battle, or at least somewhat emotional especially against the Cowboys. Beat the Chiefs in the SB rematch and now get the Rams in another playoff rematch before the Bucs next week. I think they lose either this week or next. Stafford looking healthy gives me a little more confidence and if you're gonna win a game like this it'd be early before he gets hurt. Rams have weapons to give the Philly D some heartburn and the Rams D is 4th in ypg, have 8 sacks, and allowed the fewest pts through 2 weeks. Maybe they haven't played the best competition but you play who's on the schedule. I think the Rams Dline can get pressure the backfield and disrupt the run game and get pressure on Hurts with the front 4. The 2 long Barkley runs in the Divisional game was the backbreaker so I think they'll find a way to keep that in check and squeak out a close one.

LAR 23 Phi 20
Click to expand...
Like this too.

Rams were some bad coaching away from winning that game -- last drive to take the lead was idiotic. .
Good situation here.
 
Redskins ML -150 (3/2)
Brock Bowers o4.5rec/o58.5 rec yds +102 (1/1.02)
Jakobi Meyers 05.5rec/o63.5rec yds +118 (1/1.18)

So pissed I didn’t grab the opener on Vegas at +6 when I had a feeling Daniels wouldn’t go today. Even coulda grabbed +5.5 and didn’t so I can’t bring myself to take 3 now. Speaking of, man that’s a big line move for 1 player so now feel like there’s some value on my guys here.

Vegas making their 2nd trip out east in 3 weeks with a physical game against the Chargers. And it’s a short week with an early start to boot so the schedule spot here not the greatest. They get a break not having to see Daniels but Mariota is capable. Now they do get another break facing the Washington defense and I do think they’ll be able to move the ball. The Chargers defense might prove to be a pretty good unit this year and what they’ll see this week is probably more along the lines of the Pats and I expect a similar type of game here. Vegas will put up yards, especially through the air against a washed up Lattimore. Hence the Meyers & Bowers combos. Not sure the secondary can keep them from the catches or yards as both these guys will see the targets (Meyers 22/Bowers 16). Couple trips to the east coast and getting beat up by the Chargers in between I think they’ll hit a little wall in the 2H today.

I believe 2 things can be true though. Vegas can gain the yards and still not quite be able to get over the hump. Here’s the thing, I’m a pessimistic optimist on my Skins this year. I’m not as high on them as some. But if a little of what the so called experts say is true and they’re not a terrible team anymore then they win this game in this spot. Daniels or not. I’ll call for the old NBA star out angle here. lol. We’re in for a long and all too familiar bad season if we can’t get it done today. Deebo is working in nicely and Terry’s had a few weeks to get some rhythm back. Work Bill into the plan today, use play action, and Mariota can still move if he needs to. Terry should start to click and they’re shuffling some of the OL to help with protection. I’m hoping for a balanced offensive game plan and not so QB dependent today and score just enough to get it done. Kind of a lower scoring ugly game.

Wash 20 LV 16
 
Can’t believe the Rams didn’t cash. Lesson here is when I feel really confident about a play just go the other way. lol

Licking the wounds after this week. :confused:
 
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