Week 3 NFL Discussion

Injury Aftermath: Week 2

by Andrew Potter and Zach Binney
Thanks to staff writer Zach Binney's analysis of NFL injury data, we are able to provide detailed injury return (number of games missed) and recovery (number of weeks limited in practices or games) estimates based on historical data for select injuries. These estimates also consider the position of the injured player. Details of our methodology are available here.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2018/injury-aftermath-week-2
 
Glad to hear ref supports a browns play, as painful as it feels to play them as favs it almost seems like a must bet. Defense creating a lot of turnovers and now they get a turnover prone rookie on a short week, if they ever gonna win a gm now is the time and let’s be fair, they a kicker away from def beating the saints and prob Steelers too.
 
2daBank said:
Glad to hear ref supports a browns play, as painful as it feels to play them as favs it almost seems like a must bet. Defense creating a lot of turnovers and now they get a turnover prone rookie on a short week, if they ever gonna win a gm now is the time and let’s be fair, they a kicker away from def beating the saints and prob Steelers too.
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3 is a lot of points for them though. even the games they should have won it would have been less than 3 or 3 exactly. very hard to need more than a fg to win ur bet with a team like this
 
Without research I like Jimmy Jesus and his coach over fat Andy and Mahomey. KC should be overvalued after their 2 wins and how they did it.

Atlanta should take care of Nola at home. Seems to me the Saints are once again starting slow into the season.

Seattle at home vs. Dallas looks appealing and I'm looking forward to Bellichick vs. Patricia. This could be a fun one.
 
Gaius.T said:
Without research I like Jimmy Jesus and his coach over fat Andy and Mahomey. KC should be overvalued after their 2 wins and how they did it.

Atlanta should take care of Nola at home. Seems to me the Saints are once again starting slow into the season.

Seattle at home vs. Dallas looks appealing and I'm looking forward to Bellichick vs. Patricia. This could be a fun one.
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think im staying away from SF/KC although KC should have a field day again. I was saying in another thread, shouldn't we just be blindly betting their overs every game? If you are gonna look at SF u better monitor Goodwin's health. Hard to bet on a road team with Pierre Garcon and Kendall Bourne as the 2 best WRS (I believe pettis got hurt too)

seattle interests me and dallas sucks, but that may be a no play for me. both teams suck.

actually starting to lean NOLA in a "fade the public" kind of way. they 100% need a win. Falcons looked ok last week but can they be trusted?
 
D-Woww said:
think im staying away from SF/KC although KC should have a field day again. I was saying in another thread, shouldn't we just be blindly betting their overs every game? If you are gonna look at SF u better monitor Goodwin's health. Hard to bet on a road team with Pierre Garcon and Kendall Bourne as the 2 best WRS (I believe pettis got hurt too)

seattle interests me and dallas sucks, but that may be a no play for me. both teams suck.

actually starting to lean NOLA in a "fade the public" kind of way. they 100% need a win. Falcons looked ok last week but can they be trusted?
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Foster should be back for SF. Huge for their D. And Kittle should be able to have a field day.
 
Ryno14 said:
Foster should be back for SF. Huge for their D. And Kittle should be able to have a field day.
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KC is gonna give up points and they are going to score points. Foster is great but KC has too many weapons. but BOL, I cant see myself laying the points but I may tease KC down with another team
 
I really just think its hard to give points with the Browns. Very lackluster offense, coach doesn‘t know how to win. I want my chalk to have some threat on offense to score some touchdowns and win by a good margin! Who knows if the Browns‘ new kicker is even any better than @inZane
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Reasoning...?
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They played a good overall game against Miami but shot themselves in the foot with mental errors and big swings due to turnovers. Miam's two TD's came on 15 and 50 yard fields, and their few other sizeable offensive plays were off basic defensive errors like overaggressiveness - all stuff that is vital to be mindful of on top before facing a running QB. Miami also dictated field position all game, which is generally attributable to luck much more than gameplan.

Cleveland has no vertical offense and I don't trust Hue to outscheme Bowles with the defense the Jets are fielding.

Other side of the ball, I expect Bates to take some lessons learned this past week, when he stubbornly stayed in a shell at times but saw good results with more spread out vertical formations against a good defense. I think he'll get the better of Gregg Williams, who will suffer schematically without Randall patrolling the deep middle.

Lastly, all the pressure on the world is on Cleveland. They haven't won a home game since Obama was president, their inept head coach is one loss away from probably getting fired, and now this is the game everybody expects them to win at home on a national stage. It just makes sense that this is the game that gets Hue fired, gives Haley the reigns and the common sense to just move forward with Baker, and truly bring in the new era in Cleveland.
 
FYI I'm a fan of the team but try to remain level headed - - they have a really solid vibe to them this year, doesn't feel like same old Jets. They finally have depth on defense and competent skill position players on offense. Got the feel after the game on Sunday that they really really had a bad taste in their mouth from it, really felt like they let a win get away. Off an upset loss like that, best thing is sometimes to just have the opportunity to come back out as soon as possible.

I also can't understate how little faith I have in Hue Jackson, even more so on a short week off another devastating game in NOLA. Seems like a nice guy, but he's an absolute trainwreck as a head coach and has no business laying points to anybody.
 
Shanahan with inflated value as he's 0-2 ats facing a 2-0 ats team with two upset wins. Facing the worst defense in the league, I expect the 9ers to scheme up a cover and potentially a win. Andy is also not the guy you want to back as a big home favorite.

Atlanta's best two defensive players, both of whom control the middle of the field out long term. Against Carolina who was shuffling its entire Oline it didn't matter, against Brees and a good healthy oline it will matter a lot. Also down Levitre so reshuffling some pieces on the oline for the Falcons too -- Saints a live dog off two ugly games bettors can't shake out of their heads yet.

Trubisky laying 6 points on the road is nonsense. Having a team that just lost by 34 points helps too, they'll be motivated to play better. Bears short week heading west also off an emotional MNF home opener, tough spot.

Eagles too banged up right now to be laying 6 against anybody. Colts look like a decent team, Luck is healthy and that oline looks a lot better which is more than enough for them to compete against any team.

I'll bite and take 17 points against a team that is facing the Rams in LA on Thursday night.

Skins shouldn't be dogged at home against the Packers imo.

Expecting the Jags to keep their foot on the pedal, real chance to already put the division to bed at home against a team they lost to twice last year.
 
Everyone here should have a decent grasp of either their local team or the team they closely follow as a fan.... I hope @aplous can come in and back me up here...

Arrowhead as a stadium can be overrated at times. This Sunday is going to be an absolute shitshow there. The fans have waited for a home opener like this for decades... I sold my tickets for a ridiculous mark-up... I think that is being undervalued here.

And folks can make fun of Fat Andy all you'd like.. Unless your Coach is named Bill Belichick... He's better than your coach. (*Regular season only)

I try not to get involved where the heart is, but I think KC scores at will against the Niners and I do not fear the SF offense. And anyone who reads my stuff knows I did not love them the first two weeks. I'm still combing through some stuff for the games.
 
Gaius.T said:
Without research I like Jimmy Jesus and his coach over fat Andy and Mahomey. KC should be overvalued after their 2 wins and how they did it.
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overvalued after two dominant wins on the road against division favorites?
 
@raems i think the only part i don't agree with is the Skins comment. GB has impressed me despite a low valuation entering the year, thought they controlled one of the best teams in the league last week and it took miracle penalties and throws to draw that game
 
GWarner27 said:
@raems i think the only part i don't agree with is the Skins comment. GB has impressed me despite a low valuation entering the year, thought they controlled one of the best teams in the league last week and it took miracle penalties and throws to draw that game
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Agreed. Skins are worse off at home. I for one would rather play on the road where I expect hostility anyways than to be home expecting support and witness empty seats and booing instead
 
they're professional football players who have been doubted their whole life, that take probably isn't even true for high schoolers

There's a reason every game starts with home team -3
 
GWarner27 said:
they're professional football players who have been doubted their whole life, that take probably isn't even true for high schoolers

There's a reason every game starts with home team -3
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Well there‘s probably a reason why Skins have such a bad home ats record.

Yea and it has nothing to do with reality. I mean, ULM shows more home field advantage then Michigan. Bettors assume that there‘s a home field advantage, they’ll look to ML a home favorite for instance, and that‘s why it‘s accounted for in the spread
 
Example: Jets at home vs Colts. Jets had very little attendance and after playing competitively in a well-attended game vs NE they got blown out by inferior Colts. Redskins last week another example. On the other hand attendance can lift up a team who needs some motivation. Like Iowa vs top teams or ULM in recent history.
 
In the NFL that point has to be totally irrelevant where guys are used to traveling and many have been to the same places over and over again
 
It's a good question. What do ul perceive 5 best / worst HFA?

Pat's is underrated imo pitt is kinda scary

I hope Cleveland brings some noise Thursday cause that place certainly has/ had serious hfa potential
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
It's a good question. What do ul perceive 5 best / worst HFA?

Pat's is underrated imo pitt is kinda scary

I hope Cleveland brings some noise Thursday cause that place certainly has/ had serious hfa potential
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I'm gonna go out on a limb and list the Chargers last

Other worst candidates right now: Giants, Cowboys, Bucs, Dolphins, Raiders, Skins

Tops: GB, Seattle (still), NE, Minn, New Orleans (most times)
 
Ryno14 said:
Foster should be back for SF. Huge for their D. And Kittle should be able to have a field day.
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Yep. Will go from a bottom 15 defense to a top 15 overnight. Especially the way Sherm is locking down half the field.

And Pettis is fine he'll play.

Also - Malcolm Smith is back, too. Niners had unsigned FA talent at LB last few weeks and now with Foster will have an elite talent.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Well there‘s probably a reason why Skins have such a bad home ats record.

Yea and it has nothing to do with reality. I mean, ULM shows more home field advantage then Michigan. Bettors assume that there‘s a home field advantage, they’ll look to ML a home favorite for instance, and that‘s why it‘s accounted for in the spread
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bettors assume? You think this whole bookmaking business is just around cuz some guy who calls his bookie every sunday morning believes the home team deserves 3 and not 6

VirginiaCavs said:
Example: Jets at home vs Colts. Jets had very little attendance and after playing competitively in a well-attended game vs NE they got blown out by inferior Colts. Redskins last week another example. On the other hand attendance can lift up a team who needs some motivation. Like Iowa vs top teams or ULM in recent history.
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NCAAF and NFL are not comparable. I'm amazed
 
GWarner27 said:
best:
NE
DEN
SEA
PIT
GB

worst:
LAC
MIA
MetLife
DET
LAR
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Type of comparison you just made: even college kids aren‘t so affected by traveling to a hostile venue. They signal, they‘re used to big crowds, they‘ve been doubted all their lives...bettors overrate home field and oddsies know that
 
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